Core Viewpoint - Polyamide 12 (PA12) is highlighted as a low moisture absorption and high flexibility material, making it irreplaceable in specific fields such as cable industry, electric vehicles, electronics, and fluid transport [1][4]. Group 1: Applications of PA12 - PA12 is widely used in the cable industry for applications like optical fiber tight sheathing, wire insulation, and flexible tubing [1]. - In the electric vehicle sector, PA12 is utilized for battery cooling pipelines, showcasing its adaptability to modern automotive needs [1]. - The material is also applicable in fluid transport, including flexible piping for energy storage stations and data centers [1]. Group 2: Properties of PA12 - PA12 exhibits a 24-hour water absorption rate of only 0.2%-0.5%, maintaining dimensional stability in humid environments and retaining toughness at temperatures as low as -70°C [4]. - It demonstrates excellent chemical resistance to gasoline, mineral oils, and weak acids/bases, along with outstanding wear resistance and fatigue strength [4]. - With a low density of 1.02 g/cm³, PA12 supports lightweight design and various manufacturing processes such as injection molding, extrusion, and 3D printing [4]. Group 3: Company Background - Evonik is recognized as the inventor of PA12 and maintains a complete supply chain for its synthesis, ensuring quality and global supply [1]. - The high-performance polymers division of Evonik is dedicated to the application of high-performance plastics, including PA12, and has over 30 years of experience in automotive applications [1][6].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent fluctuations in plastic futures due to geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and rising international oil prices, while clarifying that the supply situation in the Dongguan Zhangmutou plastic market is stable despite temporary congestion [1]. Group 1: Market Conditions - The Dongguan Zhangmutou plastic market experienced significant traffic congestion, leading to speculation about "tight supply" and "supply interruption" [1]. - The congestion was primarily caused by a sudden change in market expectations, leading to concentrated procurement, compounded by consecutive rainy days that increased local warehousing and logistics pressure [1]. - As of March 5, local logistics have fully resumed smooth operations, alleviating the congestion issues [1]. Group 2: Supply Sources - The supply of plastic raw materials in Dongguan and the Pearl River Delta is diverse, primarily sourced from domestic markets, Southeast Asia, and non-Iranian regions of the Middle East [1]. - The proportion of Iranian supply is relatively low, indicating that the current geopolitical situation has not caused a substantial disruption in local plastic raw material supply [1]. - Only a few specific grades of materials have experienced slight disturbances, but the overall supply foundation remains solid [1].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core Viewpoints - On March 13th, with new shutdowns like Dushanzi Petrochemical's HDPE, the plastic operating rate dropped to around 87.5%, at a neutral level. The PE downstream operating rate rose 5.21 percentage points to 33.83%, still below pre - holiday levels due to seasonal changes. Petrochemical inventory is at a neutral level in recent years. Despite the IEA's oil reserve release, slow delivery and the situation in the Strait of Hormuz led to a rebound in crude oil prices. New capacities from BASF (Guangdong) and Yulong Petrochemical were put into production in January 2026, and there are no new capacity plans in Q1. The domestic plastic supply - demand pattern has improved, and with the Middle East situation affecting the energy - chemical sector, if the Strait of Hormuz remains blocked, plastic prices are likely to rise. Attention should be paid to downstream resumption and the Middle East situation [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Market Analysis - On March 13th, new shutdowns led to a drop in the plastic operating rate to 87.5%. The PE downstream operating rate rose 5.21 percentage points to 33.83% after the Spring Festival. Petrochemical inventory is at a neutral level. Crude oil prices rebounded due to slow reserve delivery and the Strait of Hormuz situation. New capacities were put into operation in January 2026, and there are no Q1 plans. The domestic plastic supply - demand improved, but downstream is cautious in purchasing due to high prices. If the Strait of Hormuz doesn't resume, plastic prices may rise [1] 3.2. Futures and Spot Market Conditions - **Futures**: The plastic 2605 contract increased in positions, fluctuated upwards, with a low of 8226 yuan/ton, a high of 8584 yuan/ton, closing at 8416 yuan/ton above the 60 - day moving average, up 0.13%. Open interest increased by 15415 lots to 342523 lots [2] - **Spot**: The PE spot market had mixed price changes, ranging from - 200 to + 100 yuan/ton. LLDPE was priced at 8230 - 8970 yuan/ton, LDPE at 9930 - 11110 yuan/ton, and HDPE at 8300 - 9500 yuan/ton [3] 3.3. Fundamental Tracking - **Supply**: On March 13th, new shutdowns made the plastic operating rate drop to 87.5%, at a neutral level [4] - **Demand**: As of the week of March 13th, the PE downstream operating rate rose 5.21 percentage points to 33.83%, not yet back to pre - holiday levels due to seasonality [4] - **Inventory**: Petrochemical early - morning inventory on Friday increased by 20,000 tons to 820,000 tons, 45,000 tons higher than the same lunar period last year, at a neutral level in recent years [4] - **Raw Materials**: The Brent crude oil 05 contract rose to $101/barrel. Northeast Asian ethylene prices rose $30/ton to $1000/ton, and Southeast Asian ethylene prices rose $30/ton to $970/ton [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Reports Pure Benzene and Styrene - Due to the tense geopolitical situation, the supply of pure benzene is expected to decline, and the supply - demand outlook has improved. However, the price will fluctuate with oil prices. The strategy is to wait and see on a single - side basis and shrink the EB04 - BZ04 spread when it is high [1]. - The supply of styrene in March remains high, and the supply - demand is expected to slightly reduce inventory. The price will follow oil price fluctuations, and the strategy is the same as that for pure benzene [1]. Urea - The short - term price of urea is relatively firm, but there may be a downward trend after the return - green fertilizer season in mid - March, mainly affected by sentiment. The main contract should focus on whether it can break through the 1860 - 1900 range, and the strategy is to go long at low levels [2]. PVC and Caustic Soda - The short - term rise of caustic soda is due to the optimistic expectations from geopolitical conflicts. The supply - demand situation is still severe, and attention should be paid to the actual delivery volume of downstream and the price fluctuation of liquid chlorine [3]. - The price of PVC is expected to be passively pushed up. The supply - demand situation has slightly changed, and the cost - end transmission has uncertainties [3]. Natural Rubber - The new rubber supply is gradually being released, and the demand has uncertainties. The price is expected to fluctuate within the range of 16500 - 17500, and attention should be paid to the reduction of tire demand in the Middle East [4]. Glass and Soda Ash - The supply of soda ash is strong and the demand is weak, and it is affected by macro fluctuations. The market is expected to fluctuate, and the range is 1150 - 1300. The strategy is to wait and see on a single - side basis and consider the arbitrage of short soda ash and long glass [5]. - The supply of glass has a low daily melting volume, and the inventory has been well reduced. The strategy is to wait and see, with a range of 1000 - 1150, and go long at low levels after the macro situation stabilizes. Also, consider the arbitrage of short soda ash and long glass [5]. Polyolefins - The short - term market of LLDPE and PP is strong due to cost support, supply reduction, and demand recovery expectations. Attention should be paid to the sustainability of cost support and the actual procurement demand of downstream [6]. Methanol - The price of methanol is widely fluctuating due to geopolitical sentiment. The supply may have an actual reduction, the demand is gradually recovering, and the inventory has started to reduce. Attention should be paid to the progress of the conflict, the inventory reduction rhythm, and the implementation of maintenance [7]. Crude Oil - In the short term, oil prices will maintain a pattern of "policy suppression + geopolitical support", and Brent is likely to fluctuate in the range of 80 - 100 US dollars per barrel [8]. Polyester Industry Chain - For PX, the supply is expected to decline, but attention should be paid to the downstream negative feedback. The price will follow oil price fluctuations, and the strategy is to go long at low levels after the market stabilizes [10]. - For PTA, the self - driving force is limited, and the price follows the cost - end. The strategy is to wait and see on a single - side basis [10]. - For ethylene glycol, the supply in March has decreased significantly, and the inventory reduction amplitude may increase. The price has the momentum to rise, but attention should be paid to the risk of a sharp fall [10]. - For short - fiber, the supply - demand pattern is weak, and it follows the raw material fluctuations. The strategy is the same as that for PTA [10]. - For bottle - chips, the supply is expected to increase in March, and the supply - demand is expected to be tight. The strategy is the same as that for PTA [10]. LPG No specific view statement provided. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Pure Benzene - Styrene - **Upstream Prices and Spreads**: On March 12, the prices of Brent crude oil, WTI crude oil, CFR Japan naphtha, etc. all increased compared with March 11, while the spreads of pure benzene - naphtha and ethylene - naphtha decreased [1]. - **Benzene - Styrene - Related Prices and Spreads**: The prices of benzene - styrene spot and futures increased slightly, but the spreads and cash - flows decreased to varying degrees [1]. - **Downstream Cash - Flows**: The cash - flows of downstream products such as phenol, caprolactam, and aniline changed, with some increasing and some decreasing [1]. - **Inventory and Operating Rates**: The inventories of pure benzene and benzene - styrene in Jiangsu ports decreased, and the operating rates of some industries changed slightly [1]. Urea - **Futures and Spot Prices**: The futures prices of urea increased, and the spot prices were generally stable [2]. - **Raw Materials and Downstream Products**: The prices of upstream raw materials were mostly stable, and the prices of some downstream products increased slightly [2]. - **Supply and Demand**: The daily production of urea decreased slightly, the operating rate remained high, and the inventory decreased slightly. The demand from agriculture and industry is in a state of recovery [2]. PVC and Caustic Soda - **Spot and Futures Prices**: The prices of caustic soda and PVC increased to varying degrees, and the basis and spreads changed [3]. - **Overseas Quotes and Export Profits**: The overseas quotes of caustic soda and PVC changed, and the export profits increased [3]. - **Supply and Demand**: The operating rate of the caustic soda industry decreased slightly, and the operating rate of the PVC industry decreased slightly. The demand for downstream products of caustic soda and PVC improved [3]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of caustic soda factories increased slightly, and the inventory of PVC upstream factories and the total social inventory decreased [3]. Natural Rubber - **Spot Prices and Basis**: The price of natural rubber in Yunnan increased, and the basis changed significantly [4]. - **Monthly Spreads**: The monthly spreads of natural rubber changed [4]. - **Fundamental Data**: The production of natural rubber in some countries changed, the operating rates of tire industries increased, and the import and export volumes and inventories also changed [4]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Prices and Spreads**: The prices of glass and soda ash increased slightly, and the basis and spreads changed [5]. - **Supply**: The operating rate and weekly output of soda ash increased slightly, and the daily melting volume of glass decreased [5]. - **Inventory**: The inventories of glass and soda ash factories decreased [5]. - **Real Estate Data**: The year - on - year changes in real estate data such as new construction area, construction area, completion area, and sales area improved to varying degrees [5]. Polyolefins - **Futures and Spot Prices**: The futures prices of LLDPE and PP increased, and the spot prices also increased. The basis and spreads changed [6]. - **Upstream and Downstream Operating Rates**: The operating rates of PE and PP devices decreased, and the operating rates of downstream industries increased [6]. - **Inventory**: The enterprise inventory of PE increased, and the social inventory decreased. The enterprise inventory of PP increased slightly, and the trader inventory decreased [6]. Methanol - **Prices and Spreads**: The futures prices of methanol increased, and the basis and spreads changed [7]. - **Inventory**: The inventories of methanol enterprises, ports, and the society decreased [7]. - **Upstream and Downstream Operating Rates**: The operating rate of upstream domestic enterprises remained stable, and the operating rates of some downstream industries increased [7]. Crude Oil - **Prices and Spreads**: The prices of Brent, WTI, and SC crude oil increased significantly, and the spreads also changed [8]. - **Refined Oil Prices and Spreads**: The prices of refined oil products increased, and the spreads and cracking spreads changed [8]. Polyester Industry Chain - **Upstream and Downstream Product Prices and Cash - Flows**: The prices of upstream raw materials such as crude oil and naphtha increased, and the prices and cash - flows of downstream polyester products also changed [10]. - **PX - Related Prices and Spreads**: The prices and spreads of PX changed [10]. - **PTA - Related Prices and Spreads**: The prices and spreads of PTA changed, and the processing fees decreased [10]. - **MEG - Related Prices and Spreads**: The prices and spreads of MEG changed, and the import profit increased [10]. - **Operating Rates**: The operating rates of various industries in the polyester industry chain changed, with some increasing and some decreasing [10]. LPG - **Prices and Spreads**: The futures prices of LPG increased, and the basis and spreads changed [11]. - **External Market Prices**: The external market prices of LPG increased [11]. - **Inventory**: The refinery storage ratio of LPG decreased, and the port inventory and storage ratio increased [11]. - **Upstream and Downstream Operating Rates**: The operating rate of upstream main refineries increased slightly, and the operating rates of downstream industries also increased [11].

【冠通期货研究报告】 PVC日报：高开后震荡运行 发布日期：2026年3月12日 基差方面： 3月12日，华东地区电石法PVC主流价上涨至5715元/吨，V2605合约期货收盘价在5620元/ 吨，目前基差在95元/吨，走弱291元/吨，基差处于中性偏高水平。 投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明。 1 【行情分析】 上游西北地区电石价格上涨25元/吨。供应端，PVC开工率环比减少0.97个百分点至81.11%，PVC 开工率转而减少，但仍处于近年同期中性偏高水平。春节假期后第二周，PVC下游平均开工率回升 18.73个百分点至35.84%，较去年农历同期增加3.14个百分点，目前春节假期结束，下游陆续复产。 出口方面，由于亚洲市场价格上涨，出口询单有所好转。社会库存在春节假期期间增加较多，上周 继续增加，目前仍偏高，库存压力仍然较大。2025年1-12月份，房地产仍在调整阶段，投资、新开 工、施工、竣工面积同比降幅仍较大，投资、销售、竣工等同比增速进一步下降。春节假期结束第 二周，商品房成交环比有所回落，仍处于历年同期偏低水平，房地产改善仍需时间。期货仓单仍处 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The domestic supply - demand pattern of plastics has improved, and there are still expectations for the chemical industry to counter - involution. The Middle East situation boosts the energy - chemical industry. If the Strait of Hormuz cannot resume navigation, plastic prices are likely to rise in the near term. Attention should be paid to the progress of downstream resumption of production after the festival and the Middle East situation [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - On March 12, new shutdown devices such as Shanghai Petrochemical's full - density were added, and the plastic operating rate dropped to about 88%, currently at a neutral level. As of the week of March 6, the downstream operating rate of PE increased by 10.4 percentage points to 28.62% week - on - week. After the Spring Festival, downstream factories gradually resumed production but have not returned to pre - holiday levels. Petrochemical inventory increased by 480,000 tons to 940,000 tons during the Spring Festival and has been continuously decreasing. The cost of crude oil has rebounded significantly. New production capacities of 500,000 tons/year of BASF (Guangdong) FDPE and 300,000 tons/year of Yulong Petrochemical LDPE/EVA were put into operation in January 2026, and there are no plans for new production capacity in the first quarter. After the Lantern Festival, downstream factories resumed work, and the prices of agricultural films in North, East, and South China increased. However, downstream resistance to high prices led to weak spot transactions [1] Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: The plastic 2605 contract opened higher, increased positions, and fluctuated. The lowest price was 8,190 yuan/ton, the highest was 8,617 yuan/ton, and it closed at 8,236 yuan/ton, up 4.17%. The position increased by 4,435 lots to 327,108 lots [2] - Spot: The PE spot market showed mixed trends, with price changes ranging from - 200 to + 200 yuan/ton. LLDPE was reported at 7,880 - 8,470 yuan/ton, LDPE at 9,980 - 11,010 yuan/ton, and HDPE at 8,040 - 8,800 yuan/ton [3] Fundamental Tracking - Supply: On March 12, new shutdown devices such as Shanghai Petrochemical's full - density were added, and the plastic operating rate dropped to about 88%, currently at a neutral level [4] - Demand: As of the week of March 6, the downstream operating rate of PE increased by 10.4 percentage points to 28.62% week - on - week. After the Spring Festival, downstream factories gradually resumed production but have not returned to pre - holiday levels [4] - Inventory: On Thursday, the early petrochemical inventory decreased by 40,000 tons to 800,000 tons, 20,000 tons higher than the same period last lunar year, currently at a neutral level in recent years [4] - Raw materials: The Brent crude oil 05 contract rose to $98/barrel. The price of Northeast Asian ethylene remained flat at $970/ton week - on - week, and the price of Southeast Asian ethylene remained flat at $940/ton week - on - week [4]

聚烯烃日报 | 2026-03-12 霍尔木兹海峡通航仍低，上游计划性降负增多 市场要闻与重要数据 价格与基差方面，L主力合约收盘价为8154元/吨（+387），PP主力合约收盘价为8197元/吨（+377），LL华北现货为 7720元/吨（+120），LL华东现货为8000元/吨（+250），PP华东现货为8100元/吨（+100），LL华北基差为-434元/吨 （-267），LL华东基差为-154元/吨（-137）， PP华东基差为-97元/吨（-277）。 进出口方面，LL进口利润为281.8元/吨（-1739.3），PP进口利润为-756.7元/吨（-322.0），PP出口利润为-158.6美元/ 吨（+190.4）。 下游需求方面，PE下游农膜开工率为18.9%（+8.8%），PE下游包装膜开工率为40.3%（+15.6%），PP下游塑编开工 率为37.7%（+8.4%），PP下游BOPP膜开工率为59.6%（+12.0%）。 市场分析 当前霍尔木兹海峡受阻的情况并未有效解决，原料供应中断风险仍存，包括国内等亚洲炼厂均受原油等原料供应 中断影响而出现不同程度的检修、降负，供应端收缩预期及成本端支撑仍 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The market conditions of L plastic and PP polypropylene fluctuate daily, affected by factors such as supply - side changes of petrochemical enterprises, oil prices, and freight rates. The trading strategies for L and PP vary according to different market situations, including unilateral trading, arbitrage, and option trading [1][2] - The development of the polyolefin industry is also related to macro - economic indicators, global production capacity utilization, and industry - specific news, which together influence the investment decisions of L and PP [2][6] Summary by Directory Market Conditions - **L Plastic**: The price of L plastic fluctuates daily. For example, on March 12, 2026, the L主力2605 contract rose 116 points or 1.42% to 8270 points, and the LLDPE market price rebounded with a range of 50 - 500 yuan/ton. Different regions have different price ranges and changes [1] - **PP Polypropylene**: The PP market also shows daily price fluctuations. On March 12, 2026, the PP主力2605 contract rose 162 points or 1.98% to 8359 points. The price range and trend vary by region, and the market sentiment is affected by factors such as production enterprise quotes and downstream demand [1] Important News - A 100,000 - ton per - year polyvinyl alcohol (PVA) project of Ningxia Shuangying New Material Technology Co., Ltd. started construction on March 5, 2026, with a total investment of 1 billion yuan and an expected annual industrial output value of 1.5 billion yuan [1] - The global automotive production and sales exceed 80 million vehicles, and China has been the world's largest automotive exporter for two consecutive years. The "15th Five - Year Plan" will adjust the commodity export strategy [5] - Multiple domestic futures exchanges have issued risk warnings and adjusted relevant contracts due to the intensified fluctuations in the international commodity market [9] - Verdant IMAP completed a $5 million strategic equity financing for Nigerian recycling plastic enterprise Polysmart Packaging Group [18] - In 2026, the domestic polyethylene market's total production capacity will exceed 45 million tons, and the industry will face structural adjustments [20] - The China Petroleum and Chemical Industry Federation released a list of products with oversupply risks in the petrochemical industry [24] - An international investment bank reported that the chemical industry's M&A market may pick up slightly in 2026, but the market is highly uncertain [28] - The US and Israel launched a military strike against Iran on February 28, 2026, which affected the Middle East region [32] - The global refined oil demand will enter the end of growth in the "15th Five - Year Plan" period, and China's refining and refined oil industry will enter the "acceleration period of transformation" [36] - The 10 - million - ton - per - year refining and chemical integration transformation and upgrading project of Yanchang Petroleum in Yan'an has been reported to the State Council for approval [40] - In 2025, the petrochemical industry maintained stable economic operation, with the production of major energy and chemicals remaining stable, and the export volume achieving rapid growth [44] - The EU approved a draft implementation bill regarding the accounting rules for recycled PET in plastic beverage bottles [47] Logical Analysis - **Automobile - related**: In February, domestic commercial vehicle production decreased by 15.3% year - on - year to 273,000 vehicles, and passenger vehicle production decreased by 24.3% year - on - year to 1.4 million vehicles. In January, global automobile sales decreased to 7.18 million vehicles, with a year - on - year increase of 1.4% [2][6] - **Economic Indicators**: In March, the Baltic crude oil freight index rose to 2901 points, a year - on - year increase of 110.5%. In February, the US manufacturing PMI fell to 52.4 points, a year - on - year increase of 4.7%. In January, the global stock market value decreased to $149 trillion, a year - on - year increase of 14.1% [2][10][14] - **Production and Capacity**: In March, the domestic PE capacity utilization decreased to 86.9%, a year - on - year increase of 4.0%. As of last week, the global PP capacity utilization decreased to 72.8%, a year - on - year decrease of 3.5% [6][10] - **Inventory**: As of the previous Friday, the registered warehouse receipts of the DCE L contract decreased by 4.2% to 87,000 lots, and the PP contract decreased by 11.6% to 184,000 lots [14] Trading Strategies - **Unilateral Trading**: For different dates, the strategies for the L主力2605 and PP主力2605 contracts include holding long positions, holding short positions, trying long positions, trying short positions, and holding a wait - and - see attitude, with corresponding stop - loss points set [2][6][10] - **Arbitrage (Long - Short)**: The SPC L2605&PP2605 contract's trading strategies mainly include holding short positions, reducing positions for observation, and waiting and seeing, with corresponding stop - loss points set [2][6][10] - **Options**: The general strategy for options is to wait and see [2][6][10]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The domestic supply - demand pattern of plastics has improved, and there is still an expectation of anti - involution in the chemical industry. The Middle East situation boosts the energy and chemical industry. If the Strait of Hormuz cannot resume navigation, the plastic price is likely to rise in the near future. Attention should be paid to the progress of downstream resumption of production after the Spring Festival and the Middle East situation [1] Summary by Directory Market Analysis - On March 11, the number of maintenance devices changed little, and the plastic operating rate remained at around 89%, which is at a neutral level. As of the week of March 6, the downstream operating rate of PE increased by 10.4 percentage points to 28.62% week - on - week. After the Spring Festival, downstream factories gradually resumed production but did not return to the pre - holiday level. The petrochemical inventory increased by 480,000 tons to 940,000 tons during the Spring Festival and has been decreasing since then, currently at a neutral level in the same period in recent years. The Strait of Hormuz has been almost closed for many days, causing Middle - Eastern oil - producing countries to cut production. However, with the G7 countries discussing the release of strategic oil reserves and Trump's statement, the crude oil price has dropped significantly from a high level. New production capacities of 500,000 tons/year of BASF (Guangdong) FDPE and 300,000 tons/year of Yulong Petrochemical LDPE/EVA were put into operation in January 2026, and there are no plans to put new production capacities into operation in the first quarter. After the Lantern Festival, downstream factories resumed work, and the rigid demand was released intensively. The prices of agricultural films in North and East China increased, while those in South China remained stable. Although the spot trading was weak due to the downstream's resistance to high prices, the plastic price is likely to rise if the Strait of Hormuz cannot resume navigation [1] Futures and Spot Market Conditions - **Futures**: The plastic 2605 contract increased in position and fluctuated upwards, with a minimum price of 7,550 yuan/ton, a maximum price of 8,245 yuan/ton, and a final closing price of 8,154 yuan/ton, above the 60 - day moving average, with a gain of 2.18%. The position increased by 9,286 lots to 322,673 lots [2] - **Spot**: The PE spot market showed mixed trends, with price changes ranging from - 900 to + 200 yuan/ton. LLDPE was reported at 7,880 - 8,470 yuan/ton, LDPE at 9,980 - 11,010 yuan/ton, and HDPE at 8,040 - 8,800 yuan/ton [3] Fundamental Tracking - **Supply**: On March 11, the number of maintenance devices changed little, and the plastic operating rate remained at around 89%, at a neutral level [1][4] - **Demand**: As of the week of March 6, the downstream operating rate of PE increased by 10.4 percentage points to 28.62% week - on - week. After the Spring Festival, downstream factories gradually resumed production but did not return to the pre - holiday level, showing a seasonal change [1][4] - **Inventory**: The petrochemical inventory increased by 480,000 tons to 940,000 tons during the Spring Festival. On Wednesday, the early petrochemical inventory increased by 40,000 tons to 840,000 tons, 25,000 tons higher than the same period last lunar year, currently at a neutral level in the same period in recent years [1][4] - **Raw Materials**: The Brent crude oil 05 contract fell below $90/barrel. The price of Northeast Asian ethylene increased by $20/ton to $970/ton week - on - week, and the price of Southeast Asian ethylene increased by $20/ton to $940/ton week - on - week [4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Affected by the easing of the Middle - East situation, crude oil prices have dropped significantly. PVC futures have returned to fundamentals, and the market is under short - term pressure. The domestic PVC market fundamentals have not improved significantly in the short term. Supply - side pressure continues to accumulate, and demand shows a "weak recovery" trend, with limited export improvement [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - PVC 05 contract futures price is 5466, the East China spot price is 5150, the basis is - 316, and the 5 - 9 month spread is - 111 [1]. - The domestic PVC spot market is in a weak shock. The fixed - price is stable. Affected by large fluctuations in energy, PVC shows risk - aversion decline during trading. There are many basis transactions. The transaction price center has large fluctuations today. The ex - warehouse pick - up price of East China calcium carbide - based type 5 PVC is 5000 - 5400 yuan/ton, and that of ethylene - based PVC is 6100 - 6400 yuan/ton [1]. 3.2 Market Condition Analysis - Supply - side: The enterprise operating load remains around 81%, and social inventory is at a high level. Although some enterprises plan spring maintenance, the high - supply situation is difficult to reverse in the short term [2]. - Demand - side: It shows a "weak recovery" trend. Although it has entered the traditional peak season and downstream product enterprises' resumption of work drives some rigid demand, due to the overall downturn of the real estate industry, the demand for dominant hard products lacks follow - up [2]. - Export: Short - term export inquiries have improved, but the boosting effect is limited [2]. 3.3 Trend Intensity - The PVC trend intensity is - 1, indicating a relatively bearish view. The trend intensity ranges from - 2 to 2, with - 2 being the most bearish and 2 being the most bullish [2].