光期研究 p 3 2 0 2 5年5月 橡 胶 策 略 报 告 2 0 2 5 年 5 月 1 光大证券 2020 年 半 年 度 业 绩 E V E R B R I G H T S E C U R I T I E S 橡胶：基本面偏弱，远月橡胶价格预期走弱 p 2 | | 目 | 录 | | --- | --- | --- | | 1、价格：期货盘面偏弱震荡 | | | | 2、供应：天胶国内外开割季 | | | | 3、需求：轮胎库存小幅累库 | | | | 4、库存：天然橡胶库存累库趋缓 | | | | 5、持仓：NR持仓高于同期 | | | 1.1 价格：RU盘面月跌幅11.7%，NR盘面月跌幅14.52%，BR盘面月跌幅16.41% 图表：NR主力合约走势（单位：元/吨） 图表：沪胶主力价格（单位：元/吨） 图表：BR主力合约走势（单位：元/吨） 10000 12000 14000 16000 18000 20000 22000 24000 26000 28000 RSS3 SCRWF 沪胶主连 8500 9500 10500 11500 12500 13500 14500 15500 16500 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expectation to outperform the benchmark index by over 20% in the next six months [1][17]. Core Views - The company experienced a decline in gross profit in the first quarter due to rising raw material costs, but the Moroccan factory is expected to ramp up production soon, which could enhance profitability [1]. - The company's revenue for 2024 is projected at 85.11 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 8.5%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 21.86 billion, reflecting a significant increase of 59.7% year-on-year [6]. - The report highlights the company's ongoing global expansion, particularly through the new Moroccan factory, which is anticipated to contribute positively to profits in the medium to long term [6]. Financial Summary - **Revenue Projections**: - 2024: 85.11 billion - 2025: 108.83 billion (27.9% growth) - 2026: 119.84 billion (10.1% growth) - 2027: 129.56 billion (8.1% growth) [2] - **Net Profit Projections**: - 2024: 21.86 billion - 2025: 19.92 billion (-8.9% decline) - 2026: 23.68 billion (18.9% growth) - 2027: 26.59 billion (12.3% growth) [2] - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: - 2024: 2.11 - 2025: 1.92 - 2026: 2.29 - 2027: 2.57 [2] - **Valuation Ratios**: - Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratio for 2025 is projected at 10x, with a target price of 26.88 yuan based on a 14x P/E multiple [6]. - **Market Performance**: The company's stock price has fluctuated between 18.90 and 28.60 over the past 12 months, with a current market capitalization of 195.70 billion [3].

又到了每个月的20日，是更新LPR的时间，2月份的LPR没有发生意外，一年期维持在3.1%，五年以上维持在3.6%，已经4个月没有变化了。 上一次调整还是在2024年10月，一年期和五年期分别下调了0.25%，就是因为那一次刺激政策导致部分一线城市连续4个月止跌，二三线城市虽然还在 跌，但是跌速放缓了。所以利率的下调对房价是有实质利好支撑，只是2024年房贷利率下调的太快，致使银行经营端压力骤增，短期内很难进一步降息。 …… 今天a股表现尚可，成交1.76万亿，中位数+0.51%，和昨天的加起来，差不多把前天跌掉的部分给涨回来了。 两市表现最好的行业竟然是橡胶制品，涨了6.23%，这在过去几年算是很稀罕了。通常橡胶制品是传统行业，很难蹭上热点风口，但是这次情况发生了诡 变，因为这次火起来的是ai女友，情趣机器人概念，市场预期这类产品一旦热销会带动对橡胶的需求，所以资金就都冲进去了。 以前这个赛道卖的都是充气的，原因无它，便宜罢了。我没用过啊，但凭脑子想这玩意充气的肯定没有橡胶的体验好，而且一旦ai赋能了机器人，是不是 仿真度和互动体验都会好的多，所以今天涨的除了橡胶板块，还有生理传感技术概念股。 deepse ...