编者按7月30日召开的中共中央政治局会议研判了当前经济形势，部署了下半年经济工作。上半年中国经济顶住压力，实现了5.3%的平稳增长。面对外部 环境复杂多变、内部风险挑战增多的局面，下半年经济形势和政策走向备受瞩目。对此，围绕财政收入、固定资产投资、产业经济、对外开放、创新动 能、地区经济六个维度，中国经济时报邀请国家高端智库等权威机构专家，研判上半年经济形势，展望下半年政策走向。 智观年中经济形势 核心观点： 下一步，要进一步做好"两重"建设和"两新"工作，用好新型政策性金融工具，更好发挥政府投资带动作用，加快推进传统产业改造升级，加 快培育和壮大新质生产力，聚焦提高投资效益精准发力，多方面拓展有效投资空间，充分激发民间投资活力，持续发挥投资对优化供给结构的关键作用。 ■杨萍 杜月 今年以来，各地区各部门深入贯彻落实党中央、国务院决策部署，统筹用好中央预算内投资、超长期特别国债、地方政府专项债等政策工具，加快推 进"两重"建设和"两新"工作，聚焦关键领域和薄弱环节积极扩大有效投资，推动固定资产投资平稳增长。从全年看，外部环境仍然复杂严峻、具有不确定 性。下一步，要深入贯彻落实4月25日中共中央政治局会议精神， ...

Group 1 - The core issue of "involution" stems from an imbalance in the manufacturing and service industries, with manufacturing employment exceeding actual demand while service employment remains insufficient [2][9] - In 2023, manufacturing employment was significantly above potential levels (+0.2 billion), while service employment showed a notable shortfall (-0.4 billion) [9][106] - Manufacturing investment remains high despite declining revenues, indicating an "involution" phenomenon, while service investment is approximately 1.5 trillion yuan below potential levels [18][106] Group 2 - There is a substantial gap in consumer spending, with a shortfall of about 6,400 billion yuan in goods consumption and nearly 30,000 billion yuan in service consumption [3][27] - In 2024, the per capita gap in service consumption is projected to be 2,093 yuan, highlighting a significant unmet demand in the service sector [27][106] Group 3 - Long-term solutions to "involution" involve shifting focus from manufacturing supply to service supply, as global experiences indicate a transition in consumer demand from goods to services at certain GDP and urbanization levels [4][107] - The aging population and smaller household sizes are expected to further drive demand for service consumption, particularly in areas like healthcare and leisure [45][52] Group 4 - Current policies are actively promoting service consumption, investment, and exports, which are seen as the new "three drivers" of economic growth [6][80] - Measures such as extending statutory holidays and encouraging private investment in the service sector are expected to enhance service demand and investment [91][109] - The recovery of inbound tourism is anticipated to significantly contribute to service exports, with potential growth in travel exports projected at 60.5% year-on-year for 2024 [97][109]

Core Viewpoint - The economic competition among major Chinese cities, particularly Qingdao, Ningbo, and Tianjin, is intensifying as Qingdao aims to improve its GDP ranking by 2025, with a focus on industrial and service sector growth [1][6][10]. Economic Performance - Qingdao's GDP for the first half of 2025 reached 858.73 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year growth of 5.3% [1]. - Ningbo's GDP was 886.1 billion yuan with a growth rate of 5.1%, while Tianjin's GDP was 870.66 billion yuan, also growing at 5.3% [2][6]. - The gap between Qingdao and Tianjin has narrowed to 11.9 billion yuan, a reduction of approximately 10 billion yuan compared to the previous year [6]. Strategic Planning - Qingdao is designated as a "strong leader" in Shandong's three-year action plan aimed at achieving high-quality, low-carbon development by 2025 [6][10]. - The plan emphasizes the need for Qingdao to enhance its economic position among major cities in China [6]. Industrial Development - Qingdao's manufacturing sector is showing signs of recovery, with a significant increase in industrial output, particularly in advanced manufacturing [12][14]. - The city aims for manufacturing value-added to account for approximately 29% of its GDP by 2025 [12]. - In the first half of 2025, Qingdao's industrial output grew by 7.7%, outperforming both Ningbo and Tianjin [14]. Service Sector Growth - The service sector in Qingdao accounted for 64.6% of the GDP, contributing 62.7% to economic growth in the first half of 2025 [17]. - The city is focusing on developing productive service industries, which are crucial for supporting manufacturing and enhancing overall economic efficiency [19][20]. Competitive Landscape - Historically, Qingdao has faced challenges in maintaining its economic ranking, having been surpassed by cities like Chengdu and Wuhan since 2011 [6][7]. - Experts suggest that Qingdao should benchmark against Ningbo, particularly in terms of business environment and private sector activity [10].

Core Insights - In the first half of the year, Beijing saw a significant increase in newly established institutions, reaching 176,800, a year-on-year growth of 17.64%, marking a four-year high [1] - The growth is driven by the production service industry and digital economy, with cultural and elderly care industries also showing steady growth, contributing to the high-quality development of the capital's economy [1] Digital Economy and Core Industries - The number of newly established institutions in the digital economy and core industries reached 10,900, with a year-on-year increase of 53.92% [2] - The digital technology application sector accounted for 62.51%, with software development and IT services growing by 190.72% and 40.59% respectively, contributing 81.3% to the city's digital economy growth [2] - The new institutions in internet platforms, wholesale and retail, and digital content and media totaled over 2,500, with a growth of 48.17% [2] - The suburban areas (including Fangshan, Shunyi, Changping, Daxing, and Beijing Economic-Technological Development Area) saw 4,700 new institutions, a growth rate of 78.03%, representing 43.45% of the total new institutions in the digital economy [2] Elderly Care Industry - The elderly care industry established 81,400 new institutions, with a year-on-year growth of 22.5%, surpassing the city's average growth rate by 4.86 percentage points [3] - Institutions focused on elderly technology and smart elderly care services accounted for 66.02% of the total, with smart elderly care services growing by 96.08% [3] - Suburban areas contributed 34,100 new institutions, making up 41.86% of the total, with a growth rate of 46.43% [3] Production Service Industry - The production service industry saw 106,100 new institutions, with a year-on-year growth of 18.49%, leading among all sectors [4] - Key areas such as research and design, business services, and information services accounted for over 80% of the new institutions, with several sub-sectors growing over 30% [4] - Suburban areas emerged as a new growth point with 43,500 new institutions, a growth of 41.94%, representing over 40% of the total [4] Cultural and Related Industries - The cultural and related industries established 20,400 new institutions, with a year-on-year growth of 12.77%, continuing to improve from the first quarter [5] - Content creation and production institutions accounted for 69.71% of the total, with a growth rate of 103.56% driven by cultural tourism integration funds and performance investment platforms [5] - Suburban areas experienced a growth rate of 35.37%, while central urban areas accounted for 44.03% of the new cultural institutions [5]

Core Viewpoint - The overall economic operation in China during the first half of the year is stable and improving, with strong resilience and innovative vitality in the industrial economy, highlighted by three structural features. Group 1: Economic Performance - The primary industry shows accelerated growth with a 3.7% year-on-year increase in agricultural value added, ensuring food security through stable grain planting areas and a good summer harvest [2] - The secondary industry maintains a steady growth rate with a 6.4% year-on-year increase in industrial value added, slightly lower than the first quarter but within a reasonable range of 5.5%-6.5% [2] - The tertiary industry is experiencing robust growth, with a 5.5% year-on-year increase in service industry value added, indicating a significant recovery and acceleration in development [2] Group 2: Industrial Upgrades - The industrial sector is advancing towards new, green, and intelligent developments, with high-tech manufacturing value added increasing by 9.5% year-on-year, outpacing overall industrial growth [3] - The production of green low-carbon products, such as wind power generators and high-performance chemical fibers, has seen significant increases of 72.0% and 36.6% respectively [5] - The digital manufacturing sector is also growing rapidly, with a 9.9% year-on-year increase in value added, showcasing the integration of artificial intelligence into traditional industries [6] Group 3: Service Sector Dynamics - The service sector's contribution to GDP is notable, with a 59.1% share and a contribution rate of 60.2%, indicating a dual-driven growth model [7] - The productive service industry is thriving, with significant growth in sectors like postal, telecommunications, and financial services, where business activity indices remain above 55.0% [7] - Consumer services are also innovating, with a 5.3% year-on-year increase in retail service revenue and a notable rise in cultural and tourism sectors [8] Group 4: Future Outlook - The industrial economy is expected to gain stronger momentum in the second half of the year, driven by coordinated macro policies, deepening new and old kinetic energy conversion, and expanding consumption scenarios [8]

Group 1 - The "zero rent" park officially launched to foster enterprise development, focusing on industries such as electronic information, high-end manufacturing, new materials, and new energy [4][9] - The park offers a zero-rent policy targeting emerging industries like software information, artificial intelligence, and digital economy, providing extended rent-free periods for qualifying companies [4][6] - As of mid-2025, the park has signed 83 companies, with 51 in operation, including 10 specialized and innovative enterprises and 19 national high-tech enterprises [9][11] Group 2 - The West Lake Zhigu project integrates high-end manufacturing, headquarters office, pilot research and development, and industrial support services, providing flexible space for different stages of enterprise growth [7] - The park aims to create a collaborative development zone for productive services and manufacturing, enhancing the value and ecological benefits of the real economy [12][14] - Strategic partnerships with research institutes aim to support technological innovation and resource connectivity for manufacturing development [16] Group 3 - The park facilitates direct communication and technology sharing between productive service and manufacturing enterprises through industry matchmaking events [17][19] - The productive service sector in Huizhou is projected to grow significantly, with 918 enterprises expected to generate revenue of 926.6 billion yuan in 2024, marking a 41.6% share of the city's total [21]

分产业来看，上半年第一产业同比增长3.7%，是去年以来的新高。农业增加值的稳步回升，主要得益 于国家对农业扶持力度的不断增大，特别在重视国家安全的大环境下，农业的发展关乎国家治理和民生 的根本。第二产业同比增长5.3%，比去年同期下降0.5个百分点，主要是受到房地产市场供求关系出现 调整的影响。但除房地产之外，规模以上工业增加值同比增长6.4%，表明整体经济在供给侧和生产端 的意愿都比较旺盛，这也折射出当前经济运行的问题主要还是在需求侧。此外，服务业增长情况良好， 特别是代表生产性服务业的信息传输、软件和信息技术服务业较快增长，体现出生产性服务业对于新质 生产力形成的重要促进作用。未来生产性服务业和新质生产力的相互赋能，仍然是驱动经济增长的重要 动力。 未来生产性服务业和新质生产力的相互赋能，仍然是驱动经济增长的重要动力。 本报评论员 胡光旗 7月15日，国家统计局公布数据显示，上半年实际GDP同比增长5.3%。分季度来看，一季度增长5.4%， 二季度增长5.2%，今年的经济增长情况要好于去年同期水平。特别在二季度，顶住贸易摩擦导致的外 需波动带来的挑战，比去年同期加快了0.5个百分点。上半年经济增长好于预期 ...

Core Viewpoint - The production service industry has five strategic functions that are crucial for economic development and should be given high importance [1][4]. Group 1: Strategic Functions of Production Service Industry - The production service industry is a growth driver for GDP and often becomes the largest sector in developed economies [1]. - It serves as the driving force for high-quality development in manufacturing, being the largest sector for unicorn companies globally [1]. - The production service industry is a growth engine for service trade, with insufficient development in China leading to a reliance on imported production services [1]. - It forms the basis for high added value in products, as seen in the example of a smartphone where a significant portion of the price is derived from production services [2]. - The production service industry is essential for the development of total factor productivity, requiring knowledge and talent-intensive inputs [2]. Group 2: Current Status and Challenges - Despite significant achievements in manufacturing, China lags in the production service industry, reflected in five key indicators: low GDP share, low service trade proportion, low manufacturing profit margins, low unicorn representation, and low total factor productivity [4]. - The goal for the period from 2021 to 2040 is to address these shortcomings by focusing on the development of the production service industry to promote high-quality manufacturing and the healthy development of new productivity [4].

Core Viewpoint - The production service industry has five strategic functions that are crucial for economic development and should be given high importance [1][3]. Group 1: Strategic Functions of Production Service Industry - The production service industry is a growth driver for GDP and often becomes the largest sector in developed economies [1]. - It serves as the driving force for high-quality development in manufacturing and is the largest sector for unicorn companies globally [1]. - The production service industry is a growth engine for service trade, with insufficient development in China leading to a reliance on imported production services [1]. - It forms the basis for high added value in products, as seen in the example of a smartphone where a significant portion of the price is derived from production services [2]. - The production service industry is essential for the development of total factor productivity, requiring knowledge and talent-intensive inputs [2]. Group 2: Current Status and Future Goals - Despite significant achievements in manufacturing, China lags in the production service industry, reflected in five weak indicators: low GDP share, low service trade share, low manufacturing profit margins, low proportion of unicorns, and low total factor productivity [3]. - The goal for the period from 2021 to 2040 is to address these weaknesses by focusing on the development of the production service industry to promote high-quality manufacturing and the healthy development of new productivity [3].

Core Insights - The production service industry is a crucial growth engine for global GDP and should be prioritized for development [1][2][14] - China has achieved over 30% of global manufacturing output, leading in several key sectors while still lagging in the development of the production service industry [2][15][18] Group 1: Strategic Functions of Production Service Industry - The production service industry enhances the quality and efficiency of manufacturing, serving as the largest growth segment of GDP [1][7] - It acts as a driving force for high-quality development in manufacturing and is a significant contributor to the emergence of unicorn companies [9][11] - The industry is a key component of service trade, with China's service trade share being significantly lower than the global average [11][12] - It underpins high value-added products, with substantial contributions to the profit margins of manufactured goods [12][13] - The production service industry is essential for improving total factor productivity, which is currently lower in China compared to developed economies [13][18] Group 2: Current State and Future Projections - China's production service industry accounts for approximately 27% to 28% of GDP, which is lower than the 40% to 50% range seen in developed countries [18][20] - The industry is projected to grow to 35% of GDP by 2040 and 40% by 2050, while manufacturing is expected to maintain a share of around 25% [2][20] - The manufacturing sector has transitioned from "catching up" to "leading" in several areas, yet the production service sector remains a notable shortcoming [15][18] - The current profit margins in China's manufacturing sector are lower than those in developed countries, indicating a need for improvement in the production service industry [18][19]