Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that the company,卓越新能, is rated as "buy" due to its positive Q3 earnings growth and potential for future growth driven by new projects [1] - Q3 earnings showed a sequential increase, indicating strong financial performance and growth potential for the company [1] - The demand for biodiesel remains strong, and high prices for fatty alcohols are expected to benefit the company continuously [1] Group 2 - The company is making progress in building overseas bases, which is expected to provide sufficient growth momentum in the future [1]

Group 1: Financial Performance - In Q3, the company achieved operating revenue of 1.031 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.05% but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 71.05% [1] - The net profit attributable to the parent company in Q3 was 50.02 million yuan, turning from loss to profit year-on-year, but down 10.76% quarter-on-quarter [1] - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company reported operating revenue of 2.343 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 21.24%, while the net profit attributable to the parent company was 166.7 million yuan, an increase of 81.24% year-on-year [1] Group 2: Market Trends and Opportunities - The demand for biodiesel continues to improve, with the FOB price of first-generation biodiesel increasing by 1.6% quarter-on-quarter, and the export volume from China reaching 250,000 tons, a 32.3% increase from Q2 [2] - The price of fatty alcohols remains high due to tight supply and strong demand in the downstream daily chemical sector, supported by high palm kernel oil prices [2] - The Ministry of Commerce's support for expanding green trade is expected to further boost biodiesel demand, particularly in the context of carbon reduction initiatives in shipping [2] Group 3: Growth Initiatives - The company is advancing its overseas base construction, with a 100,000 tons/year HVO/SAF production line entering the pipeline installation phase [3] - In Singapore, the company plans to build a first-phase capacity of 100,000 tons/year for first-generation biodiesel, while in Thailand, the project has completed land exploration and is in the design phase for a 30,000 tons/year capacity [3] - The company anticipates that its biodiesel production capacity will exceed one million tons in the future, contributing to its growth [3]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [1] Core Insights - The company reported a slight decline in profits quarter-on-quarter for Q3, but a significant year-on-year increase in net profit due to improved cost control and new product contributions [4][2] - The company is progressing steadily with new projects, including a domestic production line for hydrocarbon-based biodiesel and an overseas biodiesel production line in Thailand, which are expected to contribute to future revenue growth [4] - The forecasted net profits for 2025-2027 are projected to be 269 million, 396 million, and 481 million yuan respectively, with significant year-on-year growth rates [4] Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved revenue of 2.343 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 21.24%, and a net profit of 167 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 81.24% [1] - In Q3 2025, the company reported a single-quarter revenue of 1.031 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.05%, but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 71% [2] - The operating cash flow for the first three quarters was 342 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 247.52% [1] Project Development Summary - The company has completed the main equipment installation for its domestic biodiesel production line and is currently in the pipeline installation phase [4] - The company plans to expand its biodiesel production capacity to 1.3 million tons, which includes various domestic and international projects [4] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 2.12, 3.11, and 3.78 yuan respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 23.56, 16.04, and 13.20 [4][5]

Core Insights - The biodiesel sector experienced a 0.65% increase on October 28, with Hai Xin Neng Ke leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3988.22, down 0.22%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13430.1, down 0.44% [1] Sector Performance - The biodiesel sector stocks showed varied performance, with the following notable movements: - Ben Liu Neng Yu (300072) closed at 4.04, up 1.51% with a trading volume of 718,800 shares and a turnover of 294 million yuan - Peng Yao Environmental (300664) closed at 5.63, up 1.26% with a trading volume of 151,700 shares and a turnover of 85.2 million yuan - Shan Gao Huan Neng (000803) closed at 6.73, up 1.20% with a trading volume of 75,900 shares and a turnover of 50.7 million yuan - Zhuang Jue Xin Neng (688196) closed at 45.00, up 0.83% with a trading volume of 94,175 shares and a turnover of 42 million yuan - Jia Ao Environmental (603822) closed at 88.93, up 0.51% with a trading volume of 26,000 shares and a turnover of 2.35 billion yuan - Zhong Liang Technology (000930) closed at 5.93, down 0.17% with a trading volume of 133,100 shares and a turnover of 78.9 million yuan - Guo Ji Shi Ye (000159) closed at 6.14, down 0.49% with a trading volume of 145,700 shares and a turnover of 89.6 million yuan [1] Capital Flow Analysis - The biodiesel sector saw a net inflow of 30.4 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors experienced a net outflow of 19.4 million yuan [1] - Detailed capital flow for key stocks includes: - Jia Ao Environmental (603822) had a net inflow of 34.5 million yuan from institutional investors, but a net outflow of 2.97 million yuan from retail investors - Zhong Liang Technology (000930) had a net inflow of 6.6 million yuan from institutional investors, with a net outflow of 1.12 million yuan from retail investors - Hai Xin Neng Ke (300072) had a net inflow of 4.0 million yuan from institutional investors, but a significant net outflow of 1.78 million yuan from retail investors - Zhuang Jue Xin Neng (688196) experienced a net outflow of 1.16 million yuan from institutional investors [2]

Core Insights - The global biodiesel market is experiencing significant growth driven by renewable energy policies across various countries, with the largest consumption concentrated in the EU, the US, Indonesia, and Brazil [2][25]. Group A: Biodiesel Characteristics and Production - Biodiesel is a renewable and biodegradable fuel primarily derived from vegetable oils, accounting for 80% of global production [1]. - The production cost of biodiesel is typically 1.5 times that of conventional diesel, making market-driven expansion challenging without policy support [1]. - Key measures to promote biodiesel include mandating minimum usage levels and providing subsidies to lower production costs [1]. Group B: Regional Policies and Consumption - In 2024, the EU is projected to account for 28.3% of global biodiesel consumption, followed by the US at 26.7%, Indonesia at 20.3%, and Brazil at 11.4% [2]. - The EU has established a robust framework for renewable energy, with the Renewable Energy Directive (RED) setting binding targets for renewable energy consumption [6][7]. - The US has implemented the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS), which mandates minimum blending ratios and provides tax incentives for biodiesel producers [13]. Group C: EU Biodiesel Market - The EU's biodiesel market is characterized by a combination of mandatory and sustainable policies, with a target of 42.5% renewable energy by 2030 [7]. - The use of used cooking oil (UCO) has increased significantly, making up about 25% of biodiesel feedstock in Europe, driven by sustainability policies [10][11]. - The EU's biodiesel consumption is projected to decrease by 12.27% in 2024, indicating potential market challenges [9]. Group D: US Biodiesel Market - The US is the second-largest biodiesel consumer, with a strong agricultural base supporting biodiesel production from soy and corn [12]. - The EPA's aggressive biodiesel blending targets for 2026 and 2027 indicate a commitment to expanding the biodiesel market [13]. - The industrial use of soybean oil in the US is expected to reach 7.03 million tons in 2025, marking a 26.5% increase [15]. Group E: Indonesia's Biodiesel Strategy - Indonesia, as the largest palm oil producer, has shifted its biodiesel strategy from export-oriented to domestic consumption, implementing the B30 and B40 blending standards [16][17]. - The Indonesian government plans to increase the palm oil export tax to support biodiesel production, ensuring market competitiveness [20][21]. - The B40 policy is expected to significantly impact global palm oil supply and demand dynamics [16]. Group F: Brazil's Biodiesel Development - Brazil, the largest soybean producer, has a slower biodiesel market development despite favorable conditions [22][24]. - The Brazilian government has set a gradual increase in biodiesel blending ratios, aiming for 20% by 2030, which supports soybean demand [24][25]. - Brazil's biodiesel production is projected to reach 8.019 million tons in 2025, reflecting a 2.39% increase from the previous year [25].

Core Viewpoint - Fengbei Bio is set to list on the Shanghai Stock Exchange, facing a paradox of rising revenue but declining net profit, indicating challenges in profitability and cash flow despite growth in sales [1][6] Financial Performance - In 2024, Fengbei Bio expects revenue to reach 1.948 billion yuan, a 12.7% increase, while net profit is projected to decline by 4.5% to 124 million yuan, marking the second consecutive year of profit decrease [7] - The company's gross margin fell from 13.95% in 2023 to 11.67% in 2024, with net margin also decreasing from 7.50% to 6.37% [7] - Operating cash flow is projected to drop sharply from 162 million yuan in 2023 to only 22 million yuan in 2024, indicating a significant decline in cash generation ability [7][8] IPO and Expansion Plans - Fengbei Bio plans to raise approximately 1.04 billion yuan through its IPO to fund an expansion project aimed at producing 428,200 tons of oil-based biological materials and fuels annually, with a construction period of about two years [1][2] - The project is expected to generate an additional annual revenue of approximately 3.944 billion yuan upon reaching full capacity, nearly doubling the company's 2024 revenue [2] Market Demand and Competition - The International Energy Agency projects global biodiesel consumption to reach 59.93 million tons by 2028, growing at an annual rate of 7.16% [4] - However, the biodiesel industry faces intense competition, with many companies planning large-scale expansions, potentially leading to oversupply and downward pressure on prices and margins [4][12] New Business Ventures - The expansion project also includes plans for producing 60,000 tons of agricultural microbial agents and compound fertilizers, utilizing glycerol, a byproduct of biodiesel production [4][5] - This diversification aims to enhance value and mitigate risks, although the profitability model for this new venture remains uncertain [5] Dependency on Tax Incentives - Fengbei Bio's profitability is significantly supported by tax incentives, with VAT refunds accounting for 13.20% of total profit in 2023, which is expected to drop to 5.14% in 2024 [8] - The company's reliance on tax benefits raises concerns about the stability of its profit margins in the absence of such support [8] Export Market Vulnerabilities - The company heavily relies on overseas markets, with Switzerland and Singapore accounting for about 70% of its exports in 2024, making it vulnerable to policy changes in these regions [10] - Fluctuations in exchange rates and compliance costs pose additional risks to the company's financial performance [10][11] Supply Chain Challenges - Fengbei Bio's raw material supply is unstable, with a notable reliance on individual suppliers for waste oil, which poses quality and compliance risks [11] - The company is exploring alternative sources for waste oil, including imports from Southeast Asia, but faces uncertainties related to costs and regulatory changes [11] Industry Position - In the competitive landscape, Fengbei Bio's scale and profitability are only average compared to peers, with notable differences in net profit levels among industry players [12] - The company must navigate the interplay of policy benefits, expansion pace, and market risks to sustain its growth trajectory [13]

Group 1: New Stock Listings - Two new stocks were listed in the A-share market last week: Kema Polo and Chaoying Electronics, with Chaoying Electronics seeing a nearly 400% increase on its first day, yielding over 40,000 yuan in profit per subscription [1] - This week, three new stocks are available for subscription: Fengbei Biological, Delijia, and Zhongcheng Consulting, with subscription dates on Monday and Tuesday [1] Group 2: Fengbei Biological - Fengbei Biological is a leading domestic company in the comprehensive utilization of waste oil resources, focusing on the production of biofuels and biobased materials [2] - The company’s IPO price is set at 24.49 yuan per share, with a maximum subscription limit of 11,000 shares per account, requiring a market value of 110,000 yuan [1][2] - Projected revenues for 2022 to 2024 are 1.709 billion yuan, 1.728 billion yuan, and 1.949 billion yuan, with net profits of 133 million yuan, 130 million yuan, and 124 million yuan respectively [2] Group 3: Delijia - Delijia specializes in the research, production, and sales of high-speed heavy-duty precision gear transmission products, primarily for wind power generation [3] - The IPO price is set at a maximum subscription limit of 9,500 shares, requiring a market value of 95,000 yuan [3] - Projected revenues for 2022 to 2024 are 3.108 billion yuan, 4.442 billion yuan, and 3.715 billion yuan, with net profits of 540 million yuan, 634 million yuan, and 534 million yuan respectively [4] Group 4: Zhongcheng Consulting - Zhongcheng Consulting focuses on providing engineering consulting services, including cost estimation, bidding agency, project supervision, and management [5] - The IPO price is set at 14.27 yuan per share, with a maximum subscription limit of 630,000 shares [5] - Projected revenues for 2022 to 2024 are 303 million yuan, 368 million yuan, and 396 million yuan, with net profits of 64 million yuan, 81 million yuan, and 105 million yuan respectively [5][6]

Core Viewpoint - Fengbei Bio (603334.SH) has initiated its subscription with an issue price of 24.49 CNY per share and a subscription limit of 11,000 shares, reflecting a price-to-earnings ratio of 30.47 times [1] Group 1: Company Overview - Fengbei Bio is a high-tech enterprise in the field of waste resource utilization, primarily producing resource products from waste oils, forming a recycling industry chain of "waste oils - biofuels (biodiesel) - bio-based materials" [1] - The main business of the company focuses on the comprehensive utilization of waste oil resources, with auxiliary operations in oil chemical products [1] - The primary products from waste oil resource utilization include bio-based materials and biofuels, with bio-based materials mainly consisting of pesticide and fertilizer additives, and biofuels primarily being biodiesel [1] Group 2: Market Position and Partnerships - Fengbei Bio has established long-term collaborations with leading companies in the agricultural chemical sector, including Fengle Seed Industry, Jiuyue Co., Lutianhua, Sichuan Meifeng, and Batian Co. [1] - As of the end of 2024, the company has a biodiesel production capacity of 105,000 tons, ranking sixth in China's biodiesel industry [2] Group 3: Financial Performance - The company reported revenues of approximately 1.709 billion CNY, 1.728 billion CNY, and 1.948 billion CNY for the years 2022, 2023, and 2024, respectively [2] - Net profits for the same years were approximately 133 million CNY, 130 million CNY, and 124 million CNY [2] - The company indicated that its operating cash flow was good from 2022 to 2023, but a decline in 2024 was noted due to an increase in operating receivables [2]

Core Viewpoint - Fengbei Bio (603334.SH) has initiated its subscription with an issue price of 24.49 CNY per share and a maximum subscription limit of 11,000 shares, reflecting a price-to-earnings ratio of 30.47 times. The company operates in the waste resource utilization sector, focusing on converting waste oils into biofuels and biobased materials, establishing a comprehensive recycling industry chain [1]. Company Overview - Fengbei Bio is a high-tech enterprise specializing in the comprehensive utilization of waste resources, primarily focusing on waste oils to produce biobased products and biofuels. The main products include biobased materials such as pesticide and fertilizer additives, and biofuels like biodiesel [1]. - The company has established long-term partnerships with leading agricultural chemical firms, including Fengle Seed Industry, Jiuyi Co., Lutianhua, Sichuan Meifeng, and Batian Co. [1]. Production Capacity - As of the end of 2024, Fengbei Bio's biodiesel production capacity is 105,000 tons, ranking sixth in China's biodiesel industry. Compared to peers like Zhuoyue New Energy and Jiaao Environmental Protection, Fengbei's net profit after deducting non-recurring gains is lower than Zhuoyue but higher than Jiaao and Longhai Bio [2][3]. Financial Performance - The company reported revenues of approximately 1.709 billion CNY, 1.728 billion CNY, and 1.949 billion CNY for the years 2022, 2023, and 2024, respectively. Net profits for the same years were approximately 133 million CNY, 130 million CNY, and 124 million CNY [2][4]. - Total assets as of December 31, 2024, are 12.368 billion CNY, with equity attributable to shareholders at 7.558 billion CNY. The asset-liability ratio has improved from 49.12% in 2022 to 43.13% in 2024 [4]. Profitability Metrics - For the fiscal year 2024, the company expects a net profit of approximately 1.238 billion CNY, with a basic earnings per share of 1.15 CNY. The return on equity is projected at 17.91%, down from 30.57% in 2022 [5].

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) industry, particularly in the context of biodiesel and its growth driven by policy initiatives in regions like the EU and China [1][4]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Global SAF Demand Growth**: The global demand for SAF is expected to reach approximately 48 million tons by 2050, with an average blending level of 11.4%. If the International Air Transport Association (IATA) targets are met, demand could soar to 358 million tons [1][4]. - **China's SAF Demand**: China's SAF demand is projected to reach 2.49 million tons by 2030, despite having more lenient targets compared to the EU [1][4]. - **SAF Price Increase**: The price of SAF has surged due to high demand and limited production capacity, with high-end offshore prices in China reaching $2,500 per ton, a nearly 40% increase since the beginning of the year [1][5]. - **UCO Supply Constraints**: The supply of used cooking oil (UCO), a key raw material for SAF, is limited, with actual collection in China around 2 million tons, indicating its scarcity [1][7]. Company Highlights - **Shangao Environmental Energy**: As a leading player in the UCO industry in China, Shangao plans to increase its waste processing capacity from 5,660 tons per day to between 8,000 and 10,000 tons per day over the next three years. The company has seen rapid growth in net profit and operating cash flow [1][3][10]. - **Jiaao Environmental Protection**: The subsidiary of Jiaao has obtained SAF export licenses and has partnered with BP and China Aviation Oil as strategic shareholders. The company is expected to achieve SAF mass production and export by mid-2025 [1][3][16]. Policy and Market Dynamics - **Global Policy Initiatives**: Various regions, particularly the EU, have implemented SAF blending policies, with the EU aiming for a 2% blending ratio by 2025, leading to a demand increase from 61,000 tons in 2024 to 190,000 tons in 2025 [4]. - **Future Supply and Demand Forecast**: Short-term supply is expected to remain tight due to delays in new production lines and aircraft deliveries. By 2030, global SAF production capacity is projected to be between 14 million and 20 million tons, with demand potentially reaching 20 million tons, indicating a continued supply-demand imbalance [1][9]. Financial Performance and Outlook - **Shangao's Financial Health**: The company reported a significant increase in net profit, with a projected growth of over 200% in net profit for the first half of 2025 compared to the previous year [1][13][14]. - **Jiaao's Financial Recovery**: Jiaao's subsidiary turned a profit of 26 million yuan in the first half of 2025, recovering from previous losses, and is expected to benefit from the scaling of SaaS delivery and price increases [1][16]. Additional Considerations - **Industry Competition**: The biodiesel industry is relatively fragmented, and while demand for UCO is high, the entry of new players is limited due to low profit margins. Shangao is expected to maintain profitability through efficiency improvements [1][11]. - **Strategic Partnerships**: The collaboration between Jiaao and major players like BP and China Aviation Oil is seen as a strategic move to secure market position and enhance operational capabilities [1][3][16]. Conclusion - The SAF industry is poised for significant growth driven by policy support and increasing demand, with key players like Shangao and Jiaao positioned to capitalize on these trends. The supply constraints and rising prices indicate a robust market environment, although challenges remain in terms of production capacity and competition dynamics [1][9][17].