投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|⾦融衍⽣品策略⽇报 2025-08-27 股市⾏情未完，债市情绪回暖 股指期货：⾼位震荡，资⾦缩量。 股指期权：期权交易持续活跃，偏度暗⽰⾏情未完。 国债期货：债市多头情绪延续。 股指期货方面，高位震荡，资金缩量。周二沪指低开震荡，量能收缩 近5000亿元，资金出现对冲情绪，预计将进入高位震荡。一是高量能的持 续性有限，历史上A股成交额超过3万亿元的日期只有两个，其一是2024年 10月8日，对应去年沪指高点，其二就是周一，因此未见新增量资金的情 况下，量能继续放大的难度加大。二是进入中报密集披露期，资金规避前 期高估值板块，寻找低位补涨和业绩改善的行业机会，催化农林牧渔、 美容护理、基础化工领涨。三是阅兵临近，风险偏好随时可能收敛，资金 有所衰减，午后出现高位股回撤，导致出现集中平多，股指期货四品种均 减仓超万手。但此类回撤我们定义为牛市中的震荡，亏损股补涨等牛市尾 声信号尚未出现，居民存款搬家仍在进程中，因此回调是加仓良机，而非 担忧行情反转，建议继续持有IM多单，等待下方加仓契机。 股指期权方面，期权交易持续活跃，偏度暗示行情未完。前一日我们 ...

| 煤炭 | | | | 安泰集团 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 房地产 | -1.07 | 188.06 | -19.97 | 深深房A | -10.01 | | 食品饮料 | -1.29 | 272.15 | -16.23 | 西麦食品 | -3.90 | | 美容护理 | -1.32 | 59.60 | -8.24 | 珀莱雅 | -5.46 | （文章来源：证券时报网） 今日各行业表现（截至上午收盘） | 申万行业 | 行业涨跌（%） | 成交额（亿元） | 比上日（%） | 领涨（跌）股 | 涨跌幅（%） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 通信 | 3.36 | 1116.81 | 12.54 | 仕佳光子 | 18.25 | | 电子 | 3.25 | 3285.21 | 18.59 | 长川科技 | 20.00 | | 计算机 | 1.95 | 2259.01 | 4.88 | 开普云 | 20.00 | | 有色金属 | 1.35 | 837.97 | -9.00 | 金力永磁 | 8. ...

Core Viewpoint - The market shows a mixed performance with the Shanghai Composite Index maintaining above the 5-day moving average despite some fluctuations, indicating a positive short-term upward trend [1][3]. Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index has surpassed its highest point in the past decade, reaching above 3731 points, while other major indices like CSI 300 and ChiNext still have significant distance to their 2021 peaks [1]. - The current market trend suggests that indices lagging behind, such as CSI 300 and ChiNext, have potential for catch-up gains [1]. Sector Analysis - The technology sector is gaining momentum, driven by various catalysts, including the launch of hydropower projects and advancements in AI and robotics [2]. - Key themes in August include: 1. AI developments showcased at the Artificial Intelligence Conference, indicating potential opportunities in AI-related stocks [2]. 2. The World Robot Conference highlights the ongoing trend of robot integration into daily life, with a shift from humanoid to functional robots, creating opportunities in related sectors [2]. 3. The semiconductor industry is expected to continue its domestic growth, focusing on equipment, wafer manufacturing, materials, and IC design [2]. 4. The military industry anticipates a rebound in orders by 2025, with signs of recovery in various sub-sectors [2]. 5. The innovative drug sector is entering a recovery phase after four years of adjustment, with positive net profit growth expected to continue into 2025 [2]. Market Performance - The market experienced slight fluctuations with the Shanghai Composite Index reaching new highs before a minor pullback, while the STAR Market saw a decline of over 1% [3]. - Sector performance was mixed, with leading sectors including agriculture, beauty care, basic chemicals, media, and retail, while lagging sectors included pharmaceuticals, non-bank financials, steel, defense, and communications [3].

Group 1 - As of July 2025, the total net asset value of public funds in China reached 35.08 trillion yuan, managed by 164 institutions, including 149 fund management companies and 15 asset management institutions with public qualifications [1] - The public fund fee reform is advancing towards a mechanism restructuring, with floating fee rate funds expected to become more common and expand to "fixed income plus" products [2] - The number of personal pension financial products has expanded to 37, with 21 commercial banks participating in distribution [2] Group 2 - The State Council has issued opinions on the deep implementation of "Artificial Intelligence +" actions, aiming for significant integration of AI in six key areas by 2027 and a core industry scale of the intelligent economy to grow rapidly [3] - The new national standard for smart toilets has been released, enhancing energy and water efficiency standards, with stricter requirements for energy consumption and water usage [3] - The humanoid robot chip market is projected to exceed $48 million by 2028, driven by advancements in AI capabilities and the adoption of new technologies by leading robotics companies [3] Group 3 - HSBC was fined 4.2 million HKD by the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission for failing to disclose investment banking relationships in research reports over an eight-year period [4][5] - DJI's new robot vacuum has faced issues with obstacle recognition, particularly with transparent surfaces, and a fix is expected within 1-2 months [5] - A court ruling has ordered Longli Bio to compensate 1,618 investors over 270 million yuan due to false statements, with associated liabilities for underwriting and accounting firms [5] Group 4 - Alibaba Cloud has announced a price reduction for certain model context caching, lowering the cost of cached tokens significantly [6] - ByteDance's option price has been raised to $200.41 per share, marking a new high compared to previous valuations [7] - Nongfu Spring reported a 22.1% increase in net profit for the first half of 2025, reaching approximately 7.62 billion yuan [8] - Sichuan Gold achieved a net profit of 209 million yuan in the first half of 2025, reflecting a 48.41% year-on-year growth [9] - Longban Media reported a net profit of 120 million yuan, up 13.28% year-on-year, despite a decline in revenue [10] - Qianjiang Biochemical's net profit increased by 30.24% to 107 million yuan, despite a drop in revenue [11] - Nobon Co. reported a net profit of 65.3 million yuan, up 48.33% year-on-year, with significant revenue growth [12] - Proya Cosmetics achieved a net profit growth of 13.8% in the first half of 2025, with a proposed cash dividend [13] - Chihong Zinc and Germanium reported a 3.27% increase in net profit, with a proposed cash dividend [14] - Lianchuang Optoelectronics reported a net profit of 263 million yuan, reflecting a 15.18% year-on-year increase [15] Group 5 - The Shanghai Composite Index experienced a decline of 0.39%, while consumer electronics stocks showed resilience with significant gains [16] - The market saw a total trading volume of 2.68 trillion yuan, indicating a decrease compared to the previous trading day [16] - Various sectors showed mixed performance, with consumer electronics, gaming, and beauty care stocks performing well, while rare earth and military sectors faced declines [16]

Market Performance - The three major indices showed mixed results, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.39%, the Shenzhen Component Index up 0.26%, and the ChiNext Index down 0.76% [2] - Over 2,700 stocks rose in the two markets, with a total trading volume of approximately 2.68 trillion yuan [3] Apple Supply Chain Stocks - Apple-related stocks experienced significant movements, with GoerTek (002241.SZ) and Lingyi iTech (002600.SZ) rising by 10%, and Luxshare Precision (002475.SZ) increasing by over 6% [3] - GoerTek, as a leading player in the Apple supply chain, has benefited from the AI wave, achieving six consecutive quarters of year-on-year growth in net profit attributable to shareholders from Q1 2024 to Q2 2024 [3] Consumer Electronics Sector - The high demand in the consumer electronics sector is attributed to both AI stimulation and domestic "national subsidy" policies, which are reviving mid-range consumption and driving structural recovery in mobile phones and tablets [3] Livestock Industry - Livestock stocks showed strong performance, with Xiaoming Co. (300967.SZ) rising over 10% and Muyuan Foods (002714.SZ) increasing by over 7% [3] - The National Development and Reform Commission reported that the average pig-to-grain price ratio fell below 6:1, entering a warning zone, prompting the government to initiate central frozen pork reserves [4] Gaming Sector - The gaming sector saw positive movements, with 37 Interactive Entertainment (002555.SZ) rising by 10% and other companies like Digital Soul (603258.SZ) and Giant Network (002558.SZ) also increasing [4] - A report from Guotai Junan highlighted that the National Press and Publication Administration approved a record 166 domestic online games on August 25, 2025, indicating a stable approval rhythm and a rich supply of gaming products [4] Beauty and Personal Care Sector - The beauty and personal care sector performed well, with Shuiyang Co. (300740.SZ) rising over 10% and other companies like Proya Cosmetics (603605.SH) and Huaxi Biological (688363.SH) also increasing [5] - According to a report from Dongfang Securities, the domestic cosmetics industry is entering a phase of steady and high-quality development, driven by economic growth, demographic shifts, cultural confidence, and the rise of domestic brands [5] Declining Sectors - The banking, securities, and semiconductor sectors faced declines, with companies like Chipone Technology (688521.SH) dropping over 9% and Haiguang Information (688041.SH) down over 6% [5] - The military and rare earth sectors also weakened, with China Rare Earth (000831.SZ) and Northern Rare Earth (600111.SH) falling nearly 7% [5]

二季度增量资金进入新消费板块推升上涨行情，也拉高了市场对新消费方向的业绩预期，二季报前瞻陆 续披露后，部分高成长标的业绩低于此前预期，板块经过调整后逐步企稳，考虑到头部企业依旧维持较 为稳定的高增速，在整体消费大盘有望触底回升，新消费相对增速优势，叠加财年估值切换有望迎来新 一轮行情。 （文章来源：每日经济新闻） 传统消费补涨性价比较高。从大消费赛道来看，8月以来主要行业上涨幅度分别为：汽车（12.05%）、 家用电器（9.37%）、轻工制造（8.4%）、美容护理（7.5%）、商业贸易（7.44%）、农林牧渔 （7.38%）、食品饮料（7.11%）、社会服务（6.9%）、纺织服装（5.93%），除汽车外均落后于沪深 300（9.66%），估值分别处于近十年来79.06%、39.29%、75.06%、59.51%、89.37%、12.11%、 11.80%、46.13%、61.31%分位，其中食品饮料、农林牧渔、家用电器、社会服务均处估值中枢以下， 2025E盈利预期增速分别为8.64%、22.26%、13.92%、45.35%，在当前行业轮动背景下估值分位与业绩 增速具备较好配置性价比。 ...

新华财经北京8月26日电（罗浩）沪深两市三大股指26日早间普遍低开，各股指早盘期间呈震荡反弹态 势，深成指午后冲高回落，沪指和创业板指则在上攻未果后波动下行。至收盘时，沪指小幅下跌，深成 指小幅上涨，创业板指显著下跌。各股指当日均呈宽幅整理态势。 板块方面，游戏板块盘初表现强势，养殖板块早盘期间持续上行，消费电子板块午后走强。化纤、化 肥、美容护理、装修装饰、物流、华为欧拉等板块亦有显著上涨。CRO概念、稀土永磁、减肥药等板 块跌幅靠前。 生态环境部水生态环境司司长蒋火华26日在例行新闻发布会上表示，近年来，随着产业转型升级，越来 越多的工业企业搬迁入园。工业园区成为了推动经济绿色高质量发展的"发动机"，但如果管理不善，也 可能变成集中污染的"重灾区"。下一步，生态环境部将从基础设施提质量、风险防控守底线、智慧监管 增效能三方面持续发力。具体措施包括：加快推进园区污水集中处理设施及配套管网建设与升级改造， 推动园区环境基础设施稳定运行"常态长效"；拓展专项行动广度和深度，指导各地开展水污染整治，加 强污水收集处理排放管控，持续开展工业废水进入城镇污水处理厂情况排查评估，有效防范环境风险； 强化卫星遥感、大数据 ...

Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3868.38, down by 15.18 points or 0.39% [1][2] - The Shenzhen Component Index closed at 12473.17, up by 32.1 points or 0.26% [1][2] - The ChiNext Index closed at 2742.13, down by 20.86 points or 0.75% [1][2] - The CSI 300 Index closed at 4452.59, down by 16.63 points or 0.37% [1][2] Trading Volume - The total trading volume for the Shanghai Composite was 11141.88 billion [1] - The total trading volume for the Shenzhen Component was 15648.32 billion [1] - The total trading volume for the ChiNext was 7500.68 billion [1] - The total trading volume for the CSI 300 was 6279.5 billion [1] Industry Performance - The top five performing industries included: - Gaming: up by 2.36% - Chemical Fiber: up by 2.1% - Fertilizer: up by 2.06% - Beauty and Personal Care: up by 1.93% - Agriculture, Animal Husbandry, and Fishery: up by 1.49% [1] - The bottom five performing industries included: - Minor Metals: down by 2.07% - Medical Services: down by 1.71% - Biological Products: down by 1.48% - Shipbuilding: down by 1.4% - Insurance: down by 1.12% [1]

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index increased by 0.04% as of 13:58, with a trading volume of 1,344.40 million shares and a total transaction value of 21,338.48 billion yuan, representing a decrease of 19.33% compared to the previous trading day [2]. Industry Performance - The top-performing sectors included Agriculture, Forestry, Animal Husbandry, and Fishery with a rise of 2.77%, followed by Comprehensive and Beauty Care sectors with increases of 2.00% and 1.92% respectively [2]. - The sectors with the largest declines were Steel, Pharmaceutical Biology, and National Defense and Military Industry, which fell by 0.70%, 0.54%, and 0.43% respectively [2]. Detailed Industry Data - **Agriculture, Forestry, Animal Husbandry, and Fishery**: - Change: +2.77% - Transaction Amount: 303.62 billion yuan - Leading Stock: Xiaoming Co., up 10.52% [2]. - **Comprehensive**: - Change: +2.00% - Transaction Amount: 46.59 billion yuan - Leading Stock: Dongyangguang, up 3.95% [2]. - **Beauty Care**: - Change: +1.92% - Transaction Amount: 78.75 billion yuan - Leading Stock: Jiaheng Jiahua, up 20.02% [2]. - **Steel**: - Change: -0.70% - Transaction Amount: 176.33 billion yuan - Leading Stock: Baogang Co., down 5.69% [2]. - **Pharmaceutical Biology**: - Change: -0.54% - Transaction Amount: 1,281.24 billion yuan - Leading Stock: Yuandong Biology, down 9.57% [2]. - **National Defense and Military Industry**: - Change: -0.43% - Transaction Amount: 812.23 billion yuan - Leading Stock: Feilihua, down 5.60% [2]. ETF Information - The 500 Quality Growth ETF (Product Code: 560500) tracks the CSI 500 Quality Growth Index and has seen a 5-day change of +4.07% with a price-to-earnings ratio of 17.67 times. The latest share count is 450 million, with an increase of 1 million shares and a net inflow of 555,000 yuan [4].

FICC日报 | 2025-08-26 大盘成长补涨，沪指加速上行 市场分析 上海楼市新政。国内方面，上海出台楼市新政"组合拳"：符合条件的家庭外环外购房不限套数，成年单身按照居 民家庭执行住房限购政策；绿色建筑公积金贷款额度上浮15%，公积金落实"又提又贷"政策；房贷利率层面则不再 区分首套和二套房；房产税征收层面也迎来微调，本地和外地户籍政策口径更为一致。海外方面，美国7月份新建 住宅折合年率销量下降0.6%至65.2万套，超出市场预期的63万套；新建住宅价格中值较上年同期下跌5.9%至40.38 万美元。 沪指剑指3900点。现货市场，A股三大指数高开高走，沪指涨1.51%收于3883.56点，创业板指涨3%。行业方面， 板块指数全线收涨，通信、有色金属、房地产行业涨幅超过3%，美容护理、纺织服饰、石油石化行业涨幅相对偏 低。当日沪深两市成交金额升至3.1万亿元。海外方面，美国三大股指全线收跌，道琼斯指数跌0.77%报45282.47点。 期指增仓。期货市场，基差方面，期指当月合约基差回落，IH、IF维持升水。成交持仓方面，股指期货的成交量 和持仓量同步增加。 风险 若国内政策落地不及预期、海外货币政策 ...