Group 1: Core Insights - Rio Tinto's iron ore profit margin is projected to decline from 81% in 2023 to 48% in 2026, indicating a significant shift in revenue sources as global steel demand decreases [1] - The copper business of Rio Tinto has shown substantial growth, with EBITDA reaching $3.105 billion in the first half of 2025, a 69% increase year-on-year, and now accounting for over 20% of the group's EBITDA [3] - BHP's copper production reached a record 2.017 million tons in the 2025 fiscal year, marking a 28% increase from the previous year, with copper contributing 45% to the group's EBITDA [3][5] Group 2: Company Strategies and Investments - BHP plans to invest between $7.3 billion and $9.8 billion for technological upgrades and new concentrator plants, aiming to stabilize copper production at around 1.4 million tons annually by 2031 [5] - Rio Tinto's key copper assets include the Oyu Tolgoi mine in Mongolia and the Escondida mine in Chile, with plans to expand copper resources significantly through various projects [6] - Vale's copper production is expected to grow, with a target of reaching 700,000 tons annually by 2030, reflecting the increasing focus on copper as a strategic asset [7] Group 3: Market Trends and Demand - The demand for copper is surging due to its applications in renewable energy, electric vehicles, and AI data centers, prompting mining companies to invest heavily in copper assets [9] - Despite a stable demand for iron ore, the supply is slightly increasing, indicating a potential shift in market dynamics as companies explore copper resources in various regions [9]

Core Points - Jinling Mining experienced a decline of 5.01% on November 18, with a stock price of 9.86 CNY per share and a trading volume of 1.04 billion CNY, resulting in a total market capitalization of 58.70 billion CNY [1] - The company, established on September 28, 1996, and listed on November 28, 1996, primarily engages in iron ore mining and the production and sale of iron concentrate, copper concentrate, cobalt concentrate, and pellet ore [1] - The revenue composition of Jinling Mining includes iron concentrate at 76.99%, pellets at 9.03%, other (supplementary) at 8.46%, copper concentrate at 5.10%, and mechanical processing at 0.41% [1] Shareholder Insights - Among the top circulating shareholders of Jinling Mining, one fund under Huaxia Fund, Huaxia Excellent Growth Mixed A (024928), entered the top ten in the third quarter, holding 3.3261 million shares, which accounts for 0.56% of the circulating shares [2] - The estimated floating loss for this fund today is approximately 1.7296 million CNY [2] Fund Performance - Huaxia Excellent Growth Mixed A (024928) was established on August 12, 2025, with a current size of 9.56 billion CNY and a cumulative return of 11.89% since inception [3] - The fund manager, Zhong Shuai, has been in position for 5 years and 115 days, managing assets totaling 13.26 billion CNY, with the best fund return during his tenure being 172.61% and the worst being -4.15% [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On November 11, 2025, the Simandou project held a grand commissioning ceremony. The first shipment of iron ore by the Weltrade fleet marked the full completion and official operation of the world - class Simandou mining and infrastructure integration project [6][11][49]. - Guinea is rich in mineral resources, especially bauxite and iron ore. The Simandou iron ore is the world's largest undeveloped high - grade iron ore with great potential. Its proven resources are about 5 billion tons, and the total resource is estimated to reach 10 billion tons [6][12][49]. - The commissioning of the Simandou project, led by domestic funds, will impact the global iron ore supply pattern. In the early stage of production ramp - up, the incremental contribution is limited. The combined output of the north and south blocks is expected to reach 20 million tons in 2026, and approach 80 million tons in 2028. The north and south blocks are conservatively estimated to reach full production in 2029 and 2030 respectively. The new capacity release may lead to lower prices, and the project is unlikely to impact the four major miners but may squeeze the share of non - mainstream miners with medium - high costs [7][36][50]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Guinea's Rich Mineral Resources - Guinea, located in western Africa, is known as a "geological miracle" with rich minerals. In 2024, its GDP was $25.76 billion, with a 6% year - on - year increase. The mining industry accounted for 25% [12]. - Guinea is the world's second - largest bauxite exporter. In 2024, its bauxite reserves reached 7.4 billion tons, about 1/4 of the global total. In 2023, its bauxite production was 122.9918 million tons (up 19% year - on - year), and exports were 126.5877 million tons (up 24% year - on - year). Many international mining companies have invested in Guinea [13]. - Guinea also has abundant iron ore resources, with proven reserves of 19.9 billion tons in 2018 and an iron grade of 56% - 65%. Well - known iron ore projects include Simandou, Zogota, and Monts Nimba [14]. - China - Guinea economic and trade cooperation has deepened. China is Guinea's largest export destination and import source. By June 2025, there were 114 Chinese - funded enterprises in Guinea, mainly in the mining industry. In the first half of 2025, Chinese - funded enterprises contributed 96.2% of the incremental bauxite shipments. Chinese enterprises are also involved in engineering construction and infrastructure operation in Guinea [20][21][22]. 3.2 Basic Information of the Simandou Iron Ore Project - The Simandou mountain range in Guinea is rich in iron ore. The Simandou Iron Ore Project consists of the north block (mining areas 1&2) and the south block (mining areas 3&4), with a total resource of over 4.6 billion tons [23][25][26]. - The north block is jointly developed by the Winning Consortium (WCS) and Baowu Resources Group, with iron ore reserves of over 1.8 billion tons and an iron grade of about 65.5%. The south block is led by Simfer, with participation from Rio Tinto and China Aluminum Iron Ore Holdings, and has reserves of about 2.8 billion tons and an iron grade of 65.5% [26][27]. - The Simandou project's infrastructure includes a railway system over 600 kilometers long and a dual - hub port system. By September 2025, the SimFer port was in the final equipment commissioning stage, with an annual shipping capacity of 65 million tons [30][31]. - The Simandou ore is mainly hematite, with high grade and low impurities. The average iron grade is 65.5%, and the average aluminum and silicon contents are below 3% and 2% respectively. However, as the mining depth increases, the main mineral components will change, which may affect costs in the long term [34][35]. 3.3 Analysis of the Impact of Simandou's Commissioning on Iron Ore Supply - Although the Simandou project was successfully commissioned in November 2025, its current impact is more symbolic, and the incremental supply may not exceed 1 million tons. It is expected to gradually release production capacity during the 14th Five - Year Plan period. The combined output of the north and south blocks is expected to reach 20 million tons in 2026 and approach 80 million tons in 2028 [36]. - The Simandou project is expected to break the current pattern dominated by Australia and Brazil and form a new supply pattern of "Australia - Brazil - Africa". It also helps improve domestic resource supply security [41]. - New capacity release may lead to price decline. Referring to FMG's history, the new capacity of Simandou is unlikely to impact the four major miners but may squeeze the share of non - mainstream miners with medium - high costs, making the overall ore supply more abundant and testing the cost support of non - mainstream miners [41][42]. 3.4 Conclusion - The Simandou project was officially put into operation on November 11, 2025. Guinea is rich in mineral resources, and the Simandou iron ore has great advantages [49]. - The commissioning of the Simandou project will affect the global iron ore supply pattern. The output will gradually increase in the future, and the new capacity may lead to price decline and squeeze the share of non - mainstream miners [50].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The iron ore futures fluctuated and rebounded last week, with the molten iron output rebounding, market sentiment improving, and spot prices rising. It is expected that the iron ore will show a fluctuating trend [1][4][6]. - On the demand side, some steel mills resumed production last week due to a long shutdown, and the molten iron output increased compared with the previous week. It is currently slightly higher than the same period last year and is expected to fluctuate within a narrow range in the future [1][4][6]. - On the supply side, although the overseas shipment volume and arrival volume decreased last week, they remained at relatively high levels in recent years. The port inventory continued to increase, and the supply pressure remained high [1][4][6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Transaction Data | Contract | Closing Price | Change | Change Rate (%) | Total Trading Volume (Lots) | Total Open Interest (Lots) | Price Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SHFE Rebar | 3053 | 19 | 0.63 | 4907951 | 2731199 | Yuan/ton | | SHFE Hot - Rolled Coil | 3256 | 11 | 0.34 | 1702672 | 1302507 | Yuan/ton | | DCE Iron Ore | 772.5 | 12.0 | 1.58 | 1423894 | 494127 | Yuan/ton | | DCE Coking Coal | 1192.0 | - 78.0 | - 6.14 | 5024636 | 941024 | Yuan/ton | | DCE Coke | 1669.5 | - 87.0 | - 4.95 | 107554 | 48736 | Yuan/ton | [2] 3.2 Market Review - **Demand Side**: Last week, some steel mills resumed production due to a long shutdown. The molten iron output increased compared with the previous week, currently slightly higher than the same period last year, and is expected to fluctuate within a narrow range in the future. The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 82.81%, a decrease of 0.32 percentage points from the previous week and an increase of 0.73 percentage points compared to the same period last year. The blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate was 88.8%, an increase of 0.99 percentage points from the previous week and an increase of 0.22 percentage points compared to the same period last year. The steel mill profitability rate was 38.96%, a decrease of 0.87 percentage points from the previous week and a decrease of 18.62 percentage points compared to the same period last year. The average daily molten iron output was 236.88 tons, an increase of 2.66 tons from the previous week and an increase of 0.94 tons compared to the same period last year [4]. - **Supply Side**: Last week, the overseas shipment volume and arrival volume decreased but remained at relatively high levels in recent years. The port inventory continued to increase, and the supply pressure remained high. The total global iron ore shipment was 3069.0 tons, a decrease of 144.8 tons from the previous week. The total shipment volume of iron ore from Australia and Brazil was 2548.6 tons, a decrease of 210.6 tons from the previous week. The inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports across the country was 15812.84 tons, an increase of 188.71 tons from the previous week, and the average daily port clearance volume was 340.28 tons, an increase of 4.73 tons [5]. 3.3 Industry News - On November 11, the commissioning ceremony of the Simandou project was held in the Port of Mariabaya, Guinea [10]. - Brazil's CSN announced its Q3 2025 results, with the iron ore segment performing strongly, setting a record high in production and sales. In Q3, the company's iron ore production reached 1192.8 tons, a 2.8% increase from the previous quarter and a 4.3% increase year - on - year [10]. - From January to October, the national real estate development investment was 73563 billion yuan, a 14.7% year - on - year decrease. The housing construction area of real estate development enterprises was 652939 million square meters, a 9.4% year - on - year decrease [10]. 3.4 Related Charts The report includes multiple charts showing the trends of futures and spot prices of rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, etc., as well as data on steel production, inventory, and iron ore shipment and arrival volume [9][11][13].

Core Insights - The West African country of Guinea is set to officially launch the world's largest and highest-quality iron ore project, the Simandou project, on November 11, 2025, marking a significant milestone in the global mining industry [1][2] - The project, with a total investment exceeding $20 billion, includes the construction of over 600 kilometers of new multi-purpose railway and supporting port facilities, with an expected annual export capacity of up to 120 million tons of iron ore [1][2] Project Development History - The development of the Simandou project can be divided into four stages, starting from 1997 when Rio Tinto acquired exploration rights, followed by a series of ownership changes and political challenges that delayed progress [4][5][6] - In 2010, Chinese companies began to enter the project, forming a joint venture with Rio Tinto, which marked the beginning of a new phase in the project's development [5] - The project saw a significant turning point in 2019 when BSG Resources relinquished its mining rights, leading to the formation of the winning alliance, which included several Chinese companies, and a successful bid of $14 billion [6][10] Strategic Implications - The successful launch of the Simandou project is expected to shift the global iron ore supply landscape from resource monopolization to diversified competition, providing China with low-cost resources and supply chain leverage [1][11] - The project is projected to supply 5% of the global iron ore market, with potential implications for China's iron ore import structure, which is currently heavily reliant on Australia [11][14] - The project represents a significant achievement for Chinese enterprises in global resource development, showcasing their ability to collaborate and compete on an international scale [14][15]

瑞达期货研究院 「2025.11.14」 螺纹钢市场周报 供应+需求双弱 螺纹期价陷入区间整理 研究员：蔡跃辉 期货从业资格号F0251444 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0013101 取 更 多 资 讯 业务咨询 添加客服 关 注 我 们 获 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业情况 4、期权市场 「周度要点小结1」 行情回顾 3 来源：瑞达期货研究院 1. 价格及价差：截至11月14日收盘，螺纹主力合约期价3053（+19），杭州螺纹中天现货价格3240（+10）。（单 位：元/吨/周） 2. 产量：螺纹产量下调。200（-8.54），同比（-33.94）。（单位：万吨） 3. 需求：表观需求回落。本期表需216.37（-2.15），（同比-14.47）。（单位：万吨） 4. 库存：厂库和社库继续下滑。螺纹钢总库存576.17（-16.37），（同比+130.68）。（单位：万吨） 5. 盈利率：钢厂盈利率38.96%，环比上周减少0.87个百分点，同比去年减少18.62个百分点。 「 周度要点小结2」 4 来源：瑞达期货研究院 行情展望 1. 宏观方面：海外，（1）IMF预计，美国联邦政府"停摆 ...

Core Insights - The Simandou iron ore project in Guinea has officially commenced operations, with the first shipment of over 200,000 tons of iron ore expected to depart from the Maribaya port in November [1][5] - The project is a significant collaboration between China and Guinea, with a total investment exceeding $20 billion, and aims to achieve an annual export capacity of up to 120 million tons of iron ore upon full production [3][4] Project Overview - The Simandou iron ore project is located in southeastern Guinea and is recognized as one of the largest and highest-quality mining projects globally, with proven reserves of 4.4 billion tons and an average iron content of over 65% [3] - The project includes the construction of over 600 kilometers of new multi-purpose railway and associated port facilities, which are essential for the transportation of iron ore [3][4] Key Participants - Major stakeholders in the project include the Guinean government, Winning Consortium, China Baowu Steel Group, Aluminum Corporation of China (Chinalco), and Simfer [3][4] - The project is divided into two main blocks: the northern block (Blocks 1 and 2) led by China Baowu and Winning Consortium, and the southern block (Blocks 3 and 4) managed by Simfer, with each block having an annual production capacity of 60 million tons [3][4] Infrastructure and Development - The project employs "Chinese standards, design, construction, and equipment" to efficiently meet production goals, with various Chinese state-owned enterprises involved in the construction and design processes [4] - The Maribaya port and the railway infrastructure are designed to handle an annual transportation capacity of 120 million tons, facilitating the export of iron ore [4] Economic Impact - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) projects that the project could increase Guinea's GDP by over 25%, while also providing significant employment opportunities for the local population [5]

Core Insights - The global iron ore market is undergoing significant changes with the official launch of the Simandou iron ore project in Guinea, which is crucial for China to reduce its reliance on Australian and Brazilian iron ore imports [1][3][8]. Group 1: Project Overview - The Simandou iron ore project has an estimated reserve of at least 3 billion tons, with proven reserves of 4.4 billion tons, making it one of the largest and highest-grade iron ore deposits globally, with an average iron content exceeding 65% [3][8]. - The project faced numerous challenges, including frequent changes in mining rights and logistical difficulties due to its inland location, which hindered development for decades [4][6][7]. Group 2: Investment and Development - A consortium of Chinese and Singaporean companies formed a winning alliance in 2019, planning to invest $12 billion to build a heavy-haul railway connecting Simandou to the port, along with securing a 25-year mining license [7][8]. - The total investment for the Simandou project exceeds $20 billion, covering mining, railway, and port infrastructure, with operations now entering the extraction phase [8][20]. Group 3: China's Iron Ore Demand and Pricing Power - China, as the world's largest steel producer, accounted for over 53% of global crude steel production in 2024, leading to substantial iron ore demand, with imports projected at 123.65 million tons, representing 72% of global seaborne iron ore imports [10][14][12]. - Despite being the largest importer, China historically had limited pricing power in the global iron ore market, often being at the mercy of Australian suppliers [16][18]. Group 4: Strategic Moves for Pricing Power - The establishment of the China Mineral Resources Trading Group in 2022 aimed to consolidate procurement and improve negotiation power, resulting in a significant reduction in iron ore prices from a peak of $207 per ton in 2021 to around $100 [18][20]. - China's control over the Simandou project is substantial, with Chinese companies holding significant stakes, which enhances China's leverage in global iron ore pricing [21][25]. Group 5: Challenges and Future Outlook - Despite recent advancements, China's quest for greater pricing power in the iron ore market faces challenges due to entrenched pricing systems and the influence of major financial institutions [27][28]. - Efforts to promote iron ore transactions in RMB and the establishment of a domestic iron ore trading market are part of China's strategy to enhance its bargaining position and reduce dependency on traditional pricing mechanisms [29][30].

Core Insights - The Simandou iron ore project in southeastern Guinea, anticipated for nearly 30 years, is set to commence production on November 11, 2025, marking a significant milestone for Guinea's economic development and a major disruption in the global iron ore market [1][3]. Investment and Production Capacity - The total investment in the Simandou project amounts to $23 billion, with an annual production capacity of 120 million tons, which will secure a substantial share in the global iron ore trade [3]. - The iron ore quality at Simandou is reported to be 65%, significantly higher than the global average, which will lower smelting costs and contribute to environmental sustainability by reducing carbon emissions [3]. China's Strategic Position - China's leading role in the project underscores its growing influence in global resource allocation, potentially altering the pricing power in the iron ore market and reducing reliance on foreign mining giants [3][5]. - The expected export volume from Simandou is projected to account for 7% of global iron ore trade, enhancing China's bargaining power as the largest iron ore importer [5]. Economic Impact on Guinea - The development of the Simandou mine is expected to create numerous job opportunities and improve living standards in Guinea, helping to avoid the "resource curse" [7]. - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) forecasts that the mine will drive Guinea's GDP growth by over 25% in the next decade, positioning it as a crucial pillar of the national economy [7]. Global Market Dynamics - The successful launch of Simandou will prompt countries to reassess their resource strategies within the global supply chain, leading to a need for more flexible approaches from the U.S. and its allies in response to China's expanding influence [9]. - The iron ore market may experience a significant reshuffle, with experts predicting that prices could drop to $85 per ton within three years, impacting the global iron ore industry [5].

Report's Investment Rating for the Industry There is no information provided regarding the report's investment rating for the industry. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In Q3, the cumulative global iron ore shipments turned positive year-on-year, mainly due to the increase in Chinese imports [1]. - Among the Big Four mines, FMG and Vale had strong shipments, while Rio Tinto's shipments this year may be at the lower end of the guidance target. However, the guidance targets of the Big Four mines remain unchanged, so the iron ore supply will still be strong in Q4 [1]. - With a strong iron ore supply and negative feedback from finished products on the demand side, fundamental contradictions are accumulating, and port inventories are increasing. The subsequent trend this year will be sideways with limited upside potential [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Global Shipments - As of Q3 2025, global iron ore shipments reached 1.20 billion tons, a year-on-year increase of 2.39%. The increase in Q3 shipments (422 million tons) was mainly due to a significant increase in Chinese imports (326 million tons) [2]. - Structurally, as of Q3, the cumulative shipments from Australia and Brazil were 1.00 billion tons, a year-on-year increase of 1.25%, while those from non-Australia and Brazil regions were 200 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 4.51% [4]. - As of September, China's cumulative iron ore imports were 919 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 0.05%. In the first eight months, cumulative imports were negative year-on-year, but imports increased in the second half of the year due to higher steel mill profits and strong demand [4]. - In the first three quarters, China imported 560 million tons of iron ore from Australia, a year-on-year increase of 1.69%, accounting for 61% of the total imports, and 196 million tons from Brazil, accounting for 21% [7]. 2. Big Four Mines 2.1 Summary of Supply in the First Three Quarters - As of mid-October 2025, the cumulative shipments of the Big Four mines were 877 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 0.53%. FMG had the largest increase, Vale's shipments increased slightly year-on-year, while BHP and Rio Tinto's shipments decreased [8]. Rio Tinto - Rio Tinto's shipments may be at the lower end of the target. The shipments from its Pilbara mining area increased significantly in Q3, but its shipments in the first three quarters decreased year-on-year due to the impact of a hurricane in Q1 [11]. - The grades of PB fines and lumps decreased. In Q3, the shipments of PB fines and lumps increased significantly, while those of SP fines and lumps decreased significantly [13]. - The progress of the Simandou project (designed capacity of 60 million tons/year) exceeded expectations. It is expected to load the first batch of iron ore in October and ship in November, earlier than expected by one month. The capacity is expected to increase significantly in 2026 [14]. FMG - FMG's production and sales increased year-on-year, and the guidance target remained unchanged. In Q3, its production was 50.8 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 6%, and shipments were 49.7 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 4% [16]. - The guidance target for shipments in the 2026 fiscal year remained unchanged at 195 - 205 million tons, and the C1 cost target remained unchanged at $17.5 - $18.5 per wet ton [16]. BHP - BHP's Q3 shipments decreased, and the guidance target remained unchanged. Its Q3 production in Western Australia was 70.25 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 2%, mainly affected by the reconstruction of the Car Dumper 3 project at Port Hedland [19]. - The guidance target for the 2026 fiscal year remained unchanged, about 2 million tons higher than that of the 2025 fiscal year. The average iron ore selling price in Q3 2025 was $84.04 per ton, a 5% increase both quarter-on-quarter and year-on-year [21]. Vale - Vale had strong production and sales in Q3. Its Q3 iron ore production was 94.4 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 4%, mainly due to the production increase in the S11D in the northern system, Minas Centrais in the southeastern system, and Vargem Grande in the southern system [23]. - Vale's Q3 sales were 86 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 5%. It adjusted its product strategy, reducing the sales of high-grade IOCJ fines by 52% year-on-year and increasing the sales of medium-grade fines such as Brazilian Blend and Carajas fines [23]. 2.2 Outlook for Future Supply - Overall, the guidance targets of the Big Four mines remain unchanged. Rio Tinto's shipments may be at the lower end of the target, while Vale's production is moving towards the upper end of the target, and FMG has strong production and sales. Therefore, it is expected that the mine shipments will still be strong in Q4, and there will be some supply pressure on iron ore [25]. 3. Fundamental Analysis 3.1 Domestic Supply - As of September, China's cumulative production of iron ore raw ore was 761 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 2.55%. The cumulative production of iron concentrate from 433 domestic mines was 207 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 4.13%. China's demand for iron elements is highly dependent on imports [26]. 3.2 Demand - As of the end of September, the cumulative crude steel production was 746 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 2.89%, and the cumulative steel production was 1.104 billion tons, a year-on-year increase of 5.68%. The cumulative iron ore production of 247 sample steel enterprises was 648 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 3.45% [27]. - As steel mills have a certain profit margin, the iron ore production remains high, supporting the demand for iron ore. However, the weak demand for finished products is expected to reduce the demand for iron ore in the future [27]. 3.3 Inventory - Due to the contradiction between the strong supply and weak demand of iron ore, the port iron ore inventory has been continuously increasing, with certain inventory pressure. The steel mill inventory is currently maintained at around 90 million tons, and the overall inventory is at a low level [31]. - At the port end, due to the high inventory pressure last year, the year-on-year import of iron ore decreased in the early part of this year, and the port inventory continued to decline. However, with the recovery of steel mill profits and the increase in foreign ore shipments, the port has started to gradually accumulate inventory, and the current inventory is 150 million tons, with certain inventory pressure [33]. 4. Future Outlook - In the context of weak demand for finished products, the decline of iron ore in the first half of the year was smaller than that of coking coal and coke. After June, the prices of coking coal and coke continued to rise, while the increase of iron ore was less than that of coking coal and coke [34]. - Looking forward, this year's crude steel reduction is expected to be mainly through the independent production cuts of steel mills. The policy space for the demand side of finished products may be limited in the future. The supply side of iron ore remains strong, while the demand continues to weaken. Therefore, it is expected that iron ore will remain sideways in the future, but the upside potential is limited [35].