一、简评 1、国内 47 港到货量为 2824.70 万吨，环比增 96.90 万吨，再度回升且位于相对高位；其中澳矿、巴 西矿分别增 72.10、70.60 万吨，非澳巴矿环比降 45.70 万吨，高位有所回落。 2、海外矿石发运高位回落，全球矿石发运总量为 3213.70 万吨，环比减 463.42 万吨，年末冲量结束 后如期回落。其中主流矿商多数减量，四大矿商合计减 272.34 万吨万吨；细分地区看澳矿、巴西矿、非 澳巴矿分别降 174.12、142.68、146.62 万吨，均迎来明显减量。 期货研究报告 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 3、按船期推算国内港口澳巴矿到货量趋稳，而矿商发运在回落，供应有所收缩，关注持续性。 铁矿石到货、发运周度数据（2026 年第 1 周） 二、矿石到货与发运数据 | | | | | | 铁矿石周度到货和发运数据 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 指标 | 本期值 | 上期值 | 周度变化 | 周度变 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report highlights the escalating conflict between the United States and Venezuela, focusing on Venezuela's natural resources and export situation [2]. Group 1: Population and Geography - Venezuela is located in the northern part of South America, covering an area of 916,400 square kilometers, with an estimated population of approximately 28.4 million in 2024 [3][10]. - The country shares borders with Guyana to the east, Brazil to the south, Colombia to the west, and has a northern coastline along the Caribbean Sea. Major ports include Cabello Port, La Guaira Port, and Maracaibo Port, with José Port and Maracaibo Port being the main oil export ports [3][10]. Group 2: Political and Military Overview - Venezuela operates under a presidential system, with the president serving as the head of state, government, and armed forces for a term of six years without term limits [4][13]. - The country has approximately 200,000 active military personnel and around 8 million militia reservists [4][14]. Group 3: Major Natural Resources - Venezuela holds the world's largest proven oil reserves, estimated at about 300 billion barrels, accounting for approximately 17% of global reserves [5][14]. - The country ranks eighth globally in proven natural gas reserves, with about 201 trillion cubic feet, representing around 2.9% of the world's total [5][17]. - The official gold reserves are approximately 53 tons, with an additional 31 tons held in the Bank of England since 2018. However, estimates of untapped gold reserves vary significantly [5][21]. - Iron ore reserves are reported to be between 2.2 billion to 4 billion tons, constituting about 1-2% of global reserves, though the U.S. Geological Survey does not include Venezuela's iron ore data [6][24]. - Other mineral resources include bauxite (34.8 billion tons), titanium (39 million tons), diamonds (4.1 billion carats), coal (730 million tons), and nickel (490,000 tons), with respective global shares of approximately 4.4%, 7%, 0.1%, 0.4% [6][26]. - Venezuela has abundant hydropower and forest resources, with a forest coverage rate of about 52%, significantly higher than the global average of 32% [7][27]. Group 4: Major Export Situation - The primary export destinations for Venezuela are the United States, China, and Spain, with total exports in 2023 amounting to approximately $7.63 billion. Exports to the U.S., China, and Spain were about $3.81 billion, $740 million, and $670 million, respectively [8][28]. - Key export products include oil and its derivatives (60% of total exports), basic metals (iron and aluminum), and nitrogen fertilizers [8][28]. - As of November 2025, Venezuela's oil production is projected to be around 934,000 barrels per day, with an estimated export volume of 656,000 barrels per day in 2024 [8][31].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The iron ore price is expected to mainly move in a volatile manner with limited upside and downside space. The upward space of the ore price is constrained by high inventory and expectations of loose supply, while the downside is supported by restocking expectations. The main factors to watch in the future are the restocking of steel mills and the rhythm of hot metal production [11][14]. Summary by Directory 1. Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Supply**: In December, the weekly average of global iron ore shipments was 3,525.68 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 228.93 million tons. The weekly average of Australian shipments to China via 19 ports was 1,645.45 million tons, an increase of 69.65 million tons from the previous month. The weekly average of Brazilian shipments was 844.35 million tons, an increase of 20.32 million tons. The weekly average of arrivals at 45 ports was 2,613.00 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 18.63 million tons. In January, it is expected that the arrivals will continue to increase, but the shipments will decline month-on-month as it turns to the traditional off-season for mine shipments [11][13]. - **Demand**: The estimated daily average domestic hot metal production in December was 228.22 million tons, a decrease of 6.95 million tons from the previous month. With the end of some blast furnace overhauls, the hot metal production may increase slightly [11][13]. - **Inventory**: At the end of December, the inventory of imported iron ore at 45 ports nationwide was 15,929.06 million tons, an increase of 718.94 million tons from the end of the previous month. The weekly average of daily ore removal volume at 45 ports was 316.54 million tons, a decrease of 10.56 million tons from the previous month. The weekly average of daily consumption of imported iron ore by steel mills was 282.24 million tons, a decrease of 8.38 million tons from the previous month. Port inventories continued to accumulate and were at a high level in the same period of history, while steel mills' imported ore inventories were at a low level in the same period, with some restocking demand [11][13]. 2. Futures and Spot Market - **Price Spreads**: At the end of December, the PB - Super Special powder spread was 117 yuan/ton, a month-on-month increase of 6.0 yuan/ton. The Carajás - PB powder spread was 82 yuan/ton, a month-on-month decrease of 9.0 yuan/ton. The Carajás - Jinbuba powder spread was 137 yuan/ton, a month-on-month decrease of 10.0 yuan/ton. The ((Carajás + Super Special powder)/2 - PB powder) spread was -17.5 yuan/ton, a month-on-month decrease of 7.5 yuan/ton [19][22]. - **In - furnace Proportion and Scrap Steel**: At the end of December, the pellet in - furnace proportion was 14.69%, an increase of 0.17 percentage points from the end of the previous month. The lump ore in - furnace proportion was 11.98%, a decrease of 0.24 percentage points. The sinter in - furnace proportion was 73.33%, an increase of 0.06 percentage points. The price of Tangshan scrap steel was 2,155 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan/ton from the end of the previous month, and the price of Zhangjiagang scrap steel was 2,080 yuan/ton, unchanged from the end of the previous month [25]. - **Profit**: At the end of December, the profitability rate of steel mills was 37.23%, an increase of 2.17 percentage points from the end of the previous month [28]. 3. Inventory - At the end of December, the inventory of imported iron ore at 45 ports was 15,929.06 million tons, an increase of 718.94 million tons from the end of the previous month. The pellet inventory was 351.56 million tons, an increase of 49.21 million tons. The iron concentrate powder inventory was 1,356.04 million tons, an increase of 71.61 million tons. The lump ore inventory was 2,144.66 million tons, an increase of 165.29 million tons. The Australian ore port inventory was 6,941.26 million tons, an increase of 633.8 million tons, and the Brazilian ore port inventory was 5,669.56 million tons, a decrease of 317.47 million tons. The inventory of imported iron ore in steel mills was 8,860.19 million tons, a decrease of 82.29 million tons [35][41][43]. 4. Supply Side - **Overseas Shipments**: In December, the weekly average of Australian shipments to China via 19 ports was 1,645.45 million tons, an increase of 69.65 million tons from the previous month. The weekly average of Brazilian shipments was 844.35 million tons, an increase of 20.32 million tons. The weekly average of Rio Tinto's shipments was 746.83 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 142.20 million tons. The weekly average of BHP's shipments was 575.30 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 11.90 million tons. The weekly average of Vale's shipments was 602.53 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 7.40 million tons. The weekly average of FMG's shipments was 392.35 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 3.07 million tons [49][52][55]. - **Arrivals and Imports**: In December, the weekly average of arrivals at 45 ports was 2,613.00 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 18.63 million tons. In November, China's non - Australian and non - Brazilian iron ore imports were 1,900.41 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 84.50 million tons [58]. - **Domestic Mines**: At the end of December, the capacity utilization rate of domestic mines was 55.53%, a decrease of 5.24 percentage points from the end of the previous month. The daily average output of iron concentrate powder from domestic mines was 43.39 million tons, a decrease of 4.09 million tons from the end of the previous month [61]. 5. Demand Side - **Hot Metal Production**: The estimated domestic hot metal production in December was 7,074.96 million tons, with a daily average of 228.22 million tons, a decrease of 6.95 million tons from the previous month. At the end of December, the blast furnace capacity utilization rate was 84.94%, a decrease of 3.04 percentage points from the end of the previous month [66]. - **Ore Removal and Consumption**: In December, the weekly average of 45 - port iron ore daily ore removal volume was 316.54 million tons, a decrease of 10.56 million tons from the previous month. The weekly average of daily consumption of imported iron ore by steel mills was 282.24 million tons, a decrease of 8.38 million tons from the previous month [69]. 6. Basis - As of December 31, the calculated basis of the iron ore IOC6 main contract was 52.61 yuan/ton, and the basis rate was 6.25% [74].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating Core Viewpoints - The main contract price of rebar oscillated with a daily decline of 0.48%, showing increased volume and decreased positions. Currently, rebar supply is rising while demand is weak, with the fundamentals seasonally weakening. Steel prices in the off - season are under pressure, but cost support is a positive factor. It is expected that the steel price will continue to oscillate at a low level, and attention should be paid to steel mill production [5]. - The main contract price of hot - rolled coil oscillated weakly with a daily decline of 0.52%, also showing increased volume and decreased positions. Currently, the demand for hot - rolled coil is good, improving the supply - demand pattern and supporting prices. However, the demand's resilience is questionable, and the inventory level is high, so the upward driving force is expected to be weak. Its subsequent trend will mainly be oscillatory, and attention should be paid to steel mill production [5]. - The main contract price of iron ore oscillated with a daily decline of 0.57%, showing decreased volume and positions. Currently, positive factors have supported the iron ore price to return to a high level, but the demand for ore is weakening while supply remains high, with the fundamentals continuously weakening and the upward driving force being weak. Under the game of multiple and short - selling factors, the ore price will maintain a high - level oscillatory trend, and attention should be paid to post - holiday steel mill restocking [5]. Summary by Directory Industry Dynamics - Starting from January 1, 2026, personal consumers will be subsidized for purchasing 6 categories of home appliances and 4 categories of digital and smart products. The subsidy standard is 15% of the final sales price after deductions, with a maximum subsidy of 1500 yuan per home appliance and 500 yuan per digital or smart product [7]. - The China Automobile Dealers Association preliminarily estimates that in 2026, over 12 million passenger cars are expected to enjoy subsidies, driving the consumption of nearly 1.5 million new cars [8]. - In December 2025, 9 iron ore - related projects were approved in Hebei Province [9]. Spot Market - Rebar: The Shanghai price is 3,270 yuan, Tianjin is 3,170 yuan, and the national average is 3,326 yuan [10]. - Hot - rolled coil: The Shanghai price is 3,280 yuan, Tianjin is 3,180 yuan, and the national average is 3,291 yuan [10]. - Tangshan billet: The price is 2,940 yuan [10]. - Zhangjiagang heavy scrap: The price is 2,080 yuan [10]. - 61.5% PB powder at Shandong ports: The price is 797 yuan [10]. - Tangshan iron concentrate powder: The price is 783 yuan [10]. Futures Market - Rebar: The closing price of the active contract is 3,122 yuan, with a decline of 0.48%, the highest price is 3,142 yuan, the lowest is 3,114 yuan, the trading volume is 651,840, and the open interest is 1,505,284 [14]. - Hot - rolled coil: The closing price of the active contract is 3,270 yuan, with a decline of 0.52%, the highest price is 3,292 yuan, the lowest is 3,262 yuan, the trading volume is 364,579, and the open interest is 1,267,557 [14]. - Iron ore: The closing price of the active contract is 789.5 yuan, with a decline of 0.57%, the highest price is 795.5 yuan, the lowest is 784.5 yuan, the trading volume is 245,856, and the open interest is 593,347 [14]. Related Charts - The report presents various charts related to steel and iron ore inventories (such as rebar, hot - rolled coil, and iron ore in 45 ports), and steel mill production situations (such as blast furnace operating rates, electric furnace operating rates, and the proportion of profitable steel mills) from 2021 - 2025 [16][21][29] 后市研判 (Future Outlook) - Rebar: Supply and demand are weakly stable. The weekly output of rebar increased by 2.71 tons, and demand is weak. It is expected that the steel price will continue to oscillate at a low level, and attention should be paid to steel mill production [36]. - Hot - rolled coil: The supply - demand pattern has improved, with the inventory decline expanding. The weekly output increased by 1.63 tons, and demand is okay but its resilience is questionable. The upward driving force is expected to be weak, and the subsequent trend will mainly be oscillatory, with attention on steel mill production [36]. - Iron ore: The supply - demand pattern is continuously weakening, with port inventories rising. Supply remains high, and demand is weakening. The ore price will maintain a high - level oscillatory trend, and attention should be paid to post - holiday steel mill restocking [37].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses China's significant progress in gaining pricing power over iron ore, transitioning from a passive role to an active one in the global market, particularly by the end of 2025 [3][11][23]. Group 1: Historical Context - Since the establishment of the global iron ore long-term contract mechanism in 1981, China, as the largest consumer, has been dominated by Western countries like the US and Australia in pricing power, leading to substantial profit losses [1][3]. - The pricing system centered around the US S&P iron ore index has constrained Chinese enterprises for over four decades, limiting their negotiation power [5][7]. Group 2: Recent Developments - In December 2025, major mining companies, including Rio Tinto and Fortescue Metals Group, announced a shift from the US S&P index to pricing standards more aligned with China's market realities, marking a significant change in the pricing dynamics [11][13]. - This shift is a result of long-term negotiations with China's Mineral Resources Group, which has consolidated purchasing power, allowing China to negotiate on equal footing with global mining giants [9][11]. Group 3: Impact of Renminbi Internationalization - The move towards Renminbi (RMB) settlement for iron ore trade, initiated by BHP in October 2025, has opened avenues for reducing reliance on the US dollar, enhancing China's bargaining position [17][19]. - The transition to RMB settlement not only mitigates exchange rate risks for Chinese companies but also creates a closed-loop system for raw material imports and finished product exports, lowering transaction costs [19][21]. Group 4: Significance of Pricing Index Change - The adoption of local pricing indices, such as the "My Steel" index, reflects a shift in the international mining community's recognition of China's market influence, allowing China to move from being a price taker to a price maker [21][23]. - This change in pricing benchmarks is seen as a milestone, as it aligns more closely with China's actual supply and demand, benefiting the local steel industry [21][23].

期货研究报告 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 铁矿石到货、发运周度数据（2025 年第 52 周） 一、简评 1、国内 47 港到货量为 2727.80 万吨，环比降 62.40 万吨，延续回落但仍处年内高位；其中巴西矿到 货降 65.80 万吨，澳矿则是微增 20.30 万吨，非澳巴矿到货环比降 16.90 万吨。 2、海外矿石发运大幅增加，全球矿石发运总量为 3677.10 万吨，环比增 212.58 万吨，再创年内单周 新高。增量主要源于主流矿商发运回升，四大矿商合计增 223.94 万吨；细分地区看澳矿、巴西矿分别增 163.08、81.77 万吨，非澳巴矿则是环比降 32.27 万吨，均位于年内高位。 3、按船期推算国内港口澳巴矿到货量稳中有升，海外矿石供应相对积极。 二、矿石到货与发运数据 | | | | | | 铁矿石周度到货和发运数据 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 指标 | 本期值 | 上期值 | 周度变化 | 周度变化 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The supply of global iron ore shipments decreased slightly this week but remained at a high level. The end - of - year rush by the two major mines still supports the supply. The arrival volume decreased slightly but is at a high level in the same period of history. Based on the shipments, the arrival volume will remain at a relatively high level in the next two weeks. [2] - The daily average hot metal output remained flat compared with last week, at a historically low level. A small number of steel mills resumed production, while some were still under maintenance, mostly for annual overhauls. The profitability of steel mills has improved, but due to the off - season and a large number of overhauls, the subsequent resumption of production is expected to be limited. [2] - This week, iron ore inventory continued to accumulate, mainly Australian ore. It is expected that with the arrival volume remaining at a moderately high level and the low off - season port clearance volume at the end of the year, iron ore will continue to accumulate, but the subsequent marginal accumulation space will be smaller than before. [2] - In the short term, the supply - demand contradiction of iron ore is unlikely to lead to a trend - like decline. The price is suppressed by high inventory on the upside and supported by the replenishment expectation of steel mills with low inventory on the downside. It is recommended to operate the 05 contract in a short - term range, with the range referring to 760 - 810. [2] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Price and Spread - **Spot Price**: The prices of various iron ore powders decreased compared with last week. For example, the price of Carajás fines decreased by 3 yuan/ton to 869 yuan/ton, and the price of PB fines decreased by 3 yuan/ton to 791 yuan/ton. The Platts Fe62% index decreased by 0.85 dollars/ton to 107.30 dollars/ton. [5] - **Variety Basis**: The report presents the 05 - contract basis data of various iron ore varieties such as Carajás fines, Jinbuba fines, and Super Special fines over the years. [10][12][14] - **Spread between Varieties**: The report shows the spread data between different iron ore varieties such as PB fines - Jinbuba fines, PB fines - Super Special fines, and Carajás fines - PB fines over the years. [18][20][23] - **Spot and Forward Transactions**: The report provides the MA5 data of iron ore port spot transactions and forward transactions, as well as the import profit data of PB fines and Mac fines. [25][29][31] - **Inter - monthly Spread**: The report shows the spread data between different contracts such as I01 - 05, I2205 - I2209, and I05 - 09 over the years. [33][34][39] - **Contract Positions**: The report presents the position data of the iron ore 09 - contract and 05 - contract over the years. [35][37] 3.2 Supply - **Global Shipments**: This week, the global iron ore shipments decreased by 128 tons to 3464.5 tons. The total shipments from Australia and Brazil decreased by 150.8 tons to 2814.7 tons. Among them, Australian shipments decreased by 102 tons to 1950.6 tons, and Brazilian shipments decreased by 48.8 tons to 864.1 tons. [2] - **Four Major Mines' Shipments**: The shipments of the four major mines to China this week are as follows: Rio Tinto 601 tons (down 8 tons from last week), BHP 523 tons (up 51 tons from last week), Vale 615 tons (down 68 tons from last week), and FMG 276 tons (down 63 tons from last week). [50] - **Freight Rates**: The freight rates from Western Australia to Qingdao and from Tubarão, Brazil to Qingdao decreased compared with last week. For example, the freight rate from Western Australia to Qingdao decreased by 1.5 dollars/ton to 8.9 dollars/ton. [58] - **Arrival Volume**: The arrival volume at 45 ports this week was 2646.7 tons, a decrease of 76.7 tons compared with last week. The arrival volume at 47 ports was 2790 tons, a decrease of 138 tons compared with last week. [2][65] - **Import Volume**: From January to November 2025, the cumulative national iron ore import volume was 114057 tons, a year - on - year increase of 1680 tons and a year - on - year increase rate of 1%. The import volume of Australian and Brazilian ore increased, while the import volume of non - mainstream ore decreased. [77] - **Domestic Iron Concentrate Production**: The iron concentrate production of 186 and 126 mining enterprises decreased compared with last week. For example, the iron concentrate production of 186 mining enterprises decreased by 1.4 tons to 43.4 tons. [87] 3.3 Demand - **Steel Mill Indicators**: The daily average hot metal output of 247 steel enterprises was 226.58 tons, a slight increase of 0.03 tons compared with last week. The blast furnace capacity utilization rate was 84.94%, a slight increase of 0.01 percentage points. The blast furnace start - up rate was 78.32%, a decrease of 0.15 percentage points. The profitability rate of steel mills was 37.23%, an increase of 1.3 percentage points. [2][101] - **Port Clearance and Consumption**: The daily average port clearance volume at 45 ports and the daily consumption of imported ore by 247 steel mills are presented in the report. [110][111] - **Sintering Proportion**: The sintering ore charging ratio of 114 steel enterprises was 73.82%, an increase of 0.21 percentage points compared with last week. The charging ratios of lump ore and pellet ore decreased. [118] - **Global Steel Production**: The report shows the production data of global, Indian, Russian, American, Turkish, Chinese, Japanese, and Korean crude steel and the production data of global, Chinese, Indian, EU27, Japanese, and Russian pig iron over the years. [119][124][128] 3.4 Inventory - **Port Inventory**: As of December 25, the inventory at 45 ports was 15858.66 tons, an increase of 346.03 tons compared with last week. The report also shows the inventory data of 45 ports + 247 steel mills + berthing vessels, 45 - port inventory by cargo rights, 45 - port berthing days, and 47 - port inventory. [2][145][148] - **Steel Mill Inventory**: The imported ore inventory of steel mills increased by 136.24 tons to 8860.19 tons. The report also shows the inventory and inventory - to - consumption ratio data of 247 steel mills. [2][155] - **15 - Port Inventory by Variety**: The report presents the inventory data of 15 ports by variety. [156]

期货研究报告 姓名：涂伟华 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3060359 投资咨询证号：Z0011688 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：tuweihua@bcqhgs.com 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会 授予的期货从业资格证书，期 货投资咨询资格证书，本人承 诺以勤勉的职业态度，独立、 客观地出具本报告。本报告清 晰准确地反映了本人的研究观 点。本人不会因本报告中的具 体推荐意见或观点而直接或间 接接收到任何形式的报酬。 钢材&铁矿石 | 日报 2025 年 12 月 24 日 钢材&铁矿石日报 专业研究·创造价值 商品情绪偏暖，钢矿触底回升 核心观点 螺纹钢：主力期价震荡运行，录得 0.06%日涨幅，量缩仓增。现阶段， 螺纹供应低位企稳，而需求同样弱稳，淡季基本面未见好转，钢价仍易 承压，相对利好的是成本支撑与政策预期，预计螺纹延续低位震荡运行 态势，关注钢厂生产情况。 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 钢材&铁矿石 | 日报 一 产业动态 热轧卷板：主力期价震荡运行，录得 0.09%日涨幅，量仓扩大。目前来 看，热轧卷板供需两端均大幅走弱，产业格局并未好转，库存高位 ...

Group 1 - The core point of the news is that Jinling Mining has seen a continuous increase in its stock price, rising for six consecutive days with a total increase of 7.57% during this period, currently priced at 9.38 yuan per share and a market capitalization of 5.584 billion yuan [1] - Jinling Mining's main business involves iron ore mining, with revenue composition as follows: iron concentrate 76.99%, pellets 9.03%, other (supplement) 8.46%, copper concentrate 5.10%, and mechanical processing 0.41% [1] - The company is located in Zibo City, Shandong Province, and was established on September 28, 1996, with its listing date on November 28, 1996 [1] Group 2 - Among the top ten circulating shareholders of Jinling Mining, Huaxia Fund has a fund, Huaxia Excellent Growth Mixed A (024928), which entered the top ten in the third quarter, holding 3.3261 million shares, accounting for 0.56% of circulating shares [2] - During the six-day increase, the floating profit for Huaxia Excellent Growth Mixed A is approximately 219.52 thousand yuan, with a daily floating profit of about 3.33 thousand yuan [2] Group 3 - Huaxia Excellent Growth Mixed A (024928) was established on August 12, 2025, with a latest scale of 956 million yuan and a return of 14.23% since inception [3] - The fund manager, Zhong Shuai, has been in position for 5 years and 151 days, with the total asset scale of the fund currently at 13.26 billion yuan, achieving a best return of 180.28% and a worst return of -1.5% during his tenure [3]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for iron ore is "Oscillating" [6] Group 2: Core View of the Report - In 2026, the total pressure on iron ore will become more obvious, but with major mines reducing product grades, mainstream resources may still face structural shortages. Without a strong negative demand resonance, the supply - side pressure alone is unlikely to drive the price down independently. The iron ore price is expected to be influenced by both total pressure and structural support, with the lower support likely to remain the same as in 2025. The price is expected to fluctuate between $90 - $110 in 2026, with supply mismatches to be watched in the first half and overseas demand changes in the second half [4][77] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalog 2025 Review - In 2025, the black demand was not bad, with the growth rate of 247 - caliber hot metal and crude steel fitting output exceeding 2%. In the first half, due to concerns about the ebb of export demand, the whole industry chain actively reduced inventory, and the iron ore price fell with the port inventory. The Platts Index dropped from $109 at the beginning of the year to $95 at the end of June. After July - August, driven by policies and re - evaluation of actual demand, the price rebounded slightly in the second half. From September - October, affected by port inventory structure and negotiation progress, the inventory and price deviated. The overseas mines' shipments recovered rapidly in the second half, and the domestic port inventory increased by 10 million tons per month from November - December, suppressing the overall price [12] Iron Ore Supply - **2025 Supply**: The global seaborne iron ore supply increased by about 37 million tons in 2025. The shipment was low in the first half due to hurricane disruptions and rebounded rapidly in the middle of the year as major mines "reduced product grades to maintain quantity". The shipping - caliber global iron ore shipments from January - November increased by about 38 million tons, and the shipments to China increased by about 16 million tons [14] - **Regional Supply in 2025**: From January - November, Australia, Brazil, Iran/Oman, and West Africa increased by about 10 million tons, South Africa by about 2 million tons, India decreased by 8 million tons, and other countries such as Russia and Ukraine increased by 4 million tons. Major mines like Rio Tinto, Vale, and FMG reduced product grades. African iron ore in Sierra Leone increased more than expected, and the Onslow project in Australia reached its production capacity in the third quarter [15][24][25] - **Structural Issues in 2025**: Since 2025, structural inventory contradictions have reappeared. The decline in mainstream mine quality and the locking of Jimblebar inventory explain the deviation between high port inventory and firm spot prices since the second half of 2025 [31] - **2026 Supply Forecast**: The global iron ore supply is expected to increase by 51 million tons in 2026. Simandou may contribute an increment of 20 million tons, Onslow will continue to increase production by 10 million tons, Australia is expected to recover and grow by about 10 - 15 million tons, and India's net export volume is expected to continue to decrease by 9 million tons [41] 2026 Crude Steel Demand - In 2026, the crude steel demand is expected to be low in the first half and high in the second half, with strong resilience but lack of increment. After the export resilience in 2025, the market's demand expectation for 2026 turns cautious, with the mainstream expectation around zero growth. Real estate demand is expected to shrink by 10%, infrastructure demand may increase slightly, direct exports may decline slightly, but indirect exports from the manufacturing industry will offset the decline. External demand may improve moderately under the background of interest rate cuts [3][65] Summary and Outlook - The market's expectation for domestic demand in 2026 turns cautious after the export resilience in 2025. The iron ore supply will increase significantly in 2026, about 51 million tons in total, with about 30 million tons having a high probability of realization. Although there is total pressure on the supply side, mainstream resources may still face structural shortages. The iron ore price is expected to be influenced by both total pressure and structural support, with the lower support likely to remain the same as in 2025. The price is expected to fluctuate between $90 - $110 in 2026 [77]