Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1][9]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 5.5 billion RMB for Q3 2025, representing a year-over-year increase of 10.4%. The adjusted net profit reached 1.06 billion RMB, up 17% year-over-year, with an adjusted net profit margin of 19.2%, an increase of 1.0 percentage points year-over-year [4][6]. Financial Performance - The core online travel platform achieved a revenue of 4.6 billion RMB in Q3 2025, reflecting a year-over-year growth of 15%, with an operating profit margin of 31.2% [6]. - Revenue from transportation ticketing was 2.2 billion RMB, up 9% year-over-year, driven by user demand insights and enriched value-added services [6]. - Accommodation bookings generated 1.58 billion RMB, also up 15% year-over-year, supported by an increase in high-quality hotel room nights and brand recognition in lower-tier cities [6]. - The vacation business faced a revenue decline of 8% year-over-year, totaling 900 million RMB, primarily due to security issues in Southeast Asia [6]. - The average monthly paying user count reached 47.7 million, a 2.8% increase year-over-year, with a total of 253 million annual paying users, up 8.8% year-over-year [6]. Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The company is projected to benefit from the release of domestic travel demand, increased penetration in lower-tier markets, and international business expansion. Revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 are adjusted to 19.3 billion RMB, 21.9 billion RMB, and 24.5 billion RMB, respectively, with corresponding net profits of 2.9 billion RMB, 3.2 billion RMB, and 3.7 billion RMB [6][8]. - The target market capitalization for 2026 is set at 60.2 billion RMB, with a target price of 28 HKD per share, maintaining the "Buy" rating [7].

Core Insights - Tongcheng Travel reported a significant increase in paid users, surpassing 250 million, driven by a booming summer travel market and diverse consumer demands [1][3] - The company has successfully penetrated lower-tier markets, with over 87% of registered users coming from non-first-tier cities, differentiating its growth strategy from competitors [3][4] User Growth and Market Strategy - As of September 30, 2025, Tongcheng Travel's annual paid users reached 253 million, an 8.8% year-on-year increase, with monthly paid users rising to 47.7 million [1] - The company has focused on a comprehensive strategy that includes traffic acquisition, product design, and ecosystem development to tap into the vast lower-tier market [3] Product Innovation and Service Expansion - Tongcheng Travel has introduced services like "First Trip Worry-Free," which saw a 241% quarter-on-quarter increase in first-time air travelers in Q2 2025, and has expanded its offerings to over 25 major airports [4] - The "City Pass" service integrates daily commuting with travel needs, covering over 100 cities, enhancing user engagement and market presence [4] Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, Tongcheng's accommodation revenue grew by 14.7% year-on-year to 1.579 billion yuan, with daily room nights reaching a historical high [4] - The average revenue per user (ARPU) increased by 6.3% year-on-year in Q3 2025, showing a more than 50% rise compared to 2019 [4] Technological Advancements - The introduction of AI tools, including the AI itinerary planner DeepTrip, has significantly improved order volume and customer satisfaction [5][7] - The company has seen a 34.9% year-on-year increase in other business revenues, largely due to strong performance in hotel management [7] Hotel Management and Acquisitions - Tongcheng's hotel management segment is expanding, with nearly 3,000 hotels currently operating and 1,500 more in preparation [7] - The acquisition of Wanda Hotel Management in October added 239 high-end hotels to Tongcheng's portfolio, enhancing its market position in the upscale hotel sector [7] Outlook on International Travel - The company remains optimistic about the long-term growth of outbound tourism, citing simplified visa policies and the recovery of international flight capacity as positive indicators [7]

Core Insights - The article highlights the paradox in the Chinese online travel agency (OTA) industry, where Ctrip, a dominant player, reported significant revenue and profit growth, while many hotels struggle with profitability [1][9][61] - Ctrip's Q3 2025 revenue reached 18.3 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of approximately 16%, with net profit soaring to 19.9 billion RMB, largely due to non-operating income from asset sales [2][3][4] - The disparity between Ctrip's financial success and the challenges faced by hotels raises questions about the sustainability of such growth and the impact of OTA commission structures on hotel profitability [7][18][61] Financial Performance - Ctrip's Q3 2025 net revenue was 18.3 billion RMB, with a year-on-year growth of nearly 16% [2] - The revenue breakdown shows accommodation bookings at 8 billion RMB (+18%), transportation tickets at 6.3 billion RMB (+12%), and travel vacation at 1.6 billion RMB (+3%) [2] - Ctrip's adjusted EBITDA reached 6.3 billion RMB, with an EBITDA margin of 34%, significantly higher than competitors like JD and Meituan [3][18] Industry Dynamics - The hotel industry is experiencing a structural crisis, with many operators reporting "no profit" despite increased revenue, indicating a severe profit squeeze [1][9][15] - The influx of capital into the hotel sector has led to oversupply, resulting in price wars and stagnant average daily rates (ADR) [10][14][15] - The reliance on OTAs for customer acquisition has made hotels increasingly dependent on platforms like Ctrip, which charge high commissions [17][18] Competitive Landscape - Ctrip is transitioning from a commission-based model to a comprehensive service provider focused on accommodation, enhancing its control over the hotel booking process [3][22] - The article discusses the competitive strategies of other players like JD and Meituan, with JD attempting to disrupt the market with a "zero commission" model, though this may not be sustainable [40][41][44] - Ctrip's international business has seen explosive growth, with international OTA bookings up 60% and inbound travel bookings more than doubling [23][25] Technological Advancements - Ctrip's use of AI tools like TripGenie has significantly reduced service costs and improved operational efficiency, allowing for higher margins on new orders [28][30][32] - The company leverages data and algorithms to optimize pricing and enhance customer engagement, solidifying its market position [33][56] Future Outlook - The article suggests that the hotel industry must innovate and differentiate to survive in a market dominated by OTAs, emphasizing the need for brand building and unique customer experiences [59][60] - Regulatory scrutiny may increase due to Ctrip's market dominance and high profit margins, posing potential risks to its business model [60][61]

Core Insights - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Tongcheng Travel (00780), highlighting robust performance in Q3 with double-digit growth in both revenue and adjusted net profit, driven by strong core OTA business performance [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, Tongcheng Travel achieved revenue of 5.509 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.4%, and an adjusted net profit of 1.060 billion yuan, up 16.5% year-on-year, with an adjusted net profit margin of 19.2%, an increase of 1.0 percentage points [1] - The core OTA business revenue reached 4.609 billion yuan in Q3 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 14.9% [2] Group 2: Business Segments - Q3 2025 revenue from accommodation bookings was 1.579 billion yuan, up 14.7% year-on-year, driven by strong summer demand and an increase in high-quality hotel bookings [2] - Transportation ticketing revenue was 2.209 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.0%, with international ticketing contributing 6% to total transportation revenue, up 2.0 percentage points year-on-year [2] - Other business revenue reached 821 million yuan, a significant year-on-year increase of 34.9%, primarily due to strong performance in hotel management [2] Group 3: Profitability and Efficiency - The gross margin for Q3 2025 was 65.7%, an increase of 2.3 percentage points year-on-year, while the adjusted net profit margin was 19.2%, up 1.0 percentage points year-on-year [3] - The company is leveraging AI technology to enhance operational efficiency, with the AI trip planning tool DeepTrip attracting millions of users [3] - As of September 30, 2025, the number of annual paying users reached 253 million, a year-on-year increase of 8.8%, with over 87% of registered users residing in non-first-tier cities [3] Group 4: Future Outlook - For Q4 2025, the company expects core OTA business revenue to maintain double-digit year-on-year growth, with other business revenue driven by hotel management expected to remain high [4]

Core Insights - The report from Everbright Securities maintains a "Buy" rating for Tongcheng Travel (00780), highlighting robust performance in Q3 with double-digit growth in both revenue and adjusted net profit, driven by strong performance in the core OTA business, particularly in international ticketing and hotel management [1] Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, Tongcheng Travel achieved revenue of 5.509 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.4%; adjusted net profit reached 1.060 billion yuan, up 16.5% year-on-year; the adjusted net profit margin was 19.2%, an increase of 1.0 percentage points year-on-year [1] - The core OTA business revenue reached 4.609 billion yuan in Q3 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 14.9% [2] Business Segmentation - Accommodation booking revenue in Q3 2025 was 1.579 billion yuan, up 14.7% year-on-year, driven by strong summer demand and an increase in high-quality hotel bookings [2] - Transportation ticketing revenue was 2.209 billion yuan, a 9.0% year-on-year increase, supported by the growth in international ticketing, which accounted for 6% of total transportation revenue, up 2.0 percentage points year-on-year [2] - Other business revenue reached 821 million yuan, a significant increase of 34.9% year-on-year, primarily due to strong performance in hotel management [2] Profitability and Efficiency - The gross margin for Q3 2025 was 65.7%, an increase of 2.3 percentage points year-on-year; the adjusted net profit margin was 19.2%, up 1.0 percentage points year-on-year [3] - The company is leveraging AI technology to enhance operational efficiency, with the AI trip planning tool DeepTrip attracting millions of users [3] - As of September 30, 2025, the number of annual paying users reached 253 million, an increase of 8.8% year-on-year, with over 87% of registered users residing in non-first-tier cities [3] Future Outlook - For Q4 2025, the core OTA business is expected to maintain double-digit year-on-year revenue growth, with other business revenues likely to be driven by hotel management [4]

Core Viewpoint - Morningstar maintains a fair value of HKD 27 for Tongcheng Travel (00780), highlighting strong growth in accommodation bookings as a key driver for a 10% year-on-year revenue increase in Q3 [1] Financial Performance - The company's Q3 revenue growth of 10% is primarily attributed to robust growth in accommodation bookings, aligning with expectations [1] - Operating profit margin exceeded expectations by 100 basis points, with core revenue growing by 15% [1] Growth Catalysts - The firm believes that the expansion of international business and profit margin will serve as long-term growth catalysts [1] - Tongcheng's hotel room nights are expected to increase by 23%, indicating strong demand [1] Future Projections - The group anticipates a 15-20% growth in core business revenue for Q4, which includes additional revenue from the recent acquisition of Wanda [1] - Excluding the acquisition, the projected revenue is still expected to achieve double-digit growth [1] Profitability Insights - The monetization rate for international tourism is approximately 10-15%, higher than the 5-6% for domestic low-star hotels, suggesting potential for future margin improvement [1] - Long-term expectations indicate that international tourism revenue will account for over 15% of total revenue [1]

Core Viewpoint - Morningstar maintains a fair value of HKD 27 for Tongcheng Travel (00780), highlighting strong growth in accommodation bookings as a key driver for a 10% year-on-year revenue increase in Q3 [1] Financial Performance - The company's Q3 revenue growth of 10% aligns with expectations, driven by robust accommodation booking growth [1] - Operating profit margin exceeded expectations by 100 basis points, with core revenue increasing by 15% [1] Growth Catalysts - International business and margin expansion are seen as long-term growth catalysts for the company [1] - The number of hotel room nights for Tongcheng is expected to increase by 23%, indicating strong demand [1] Future Projections - The group anticipates a 15-20% growth in core business revenue for Q4, including additional revenue from the recent acquisition of Wanda [1] - Excluding the acquisition, projected revenue growth is still expected to be in double digits [1] Market Insights - The monetization rate for international tourism is approximately 10-15%, higher than the 5-6% for domestic low-star hotels, suggesting potential for future margin improvement [1] - Long-term expectations indicate that international tourism revenue will account for over 15% of total revenue [1]

2025 年 11 月 27 日 公司研究 25Q3 盈利能力持续增长，国际业务与酒管业务表现亮眼 ——同程旅行（0780.HK）2025 年三季度业绩点评 要点 事件：公司发布 25Q3 业绩公告，25Q3 实现营收 55.09 亿元，同比+10.4%；实 现经调整净利润 10.60 亿元，同比+16.5%；经调整净利润率 19.2%，同比 +1.0pcts。 点评： 25Q3 核心 OTA 业务稳健增长，国际业务与酒店管理业务表现亮眼：25Q3 公司 核心 OTA 业务营收达到 46.09 亿元，同比+14.9%。分业务板块：1）25Q3 住宿 预订营收达到 15.79 亿元，同比+14.7%，主要系暑期旺季需求稳健，日均间夜 量创历史新高，同时公司重点满足用户对高品质酒店的需求，推动了平台上高品 质酒店预订量同比提升，ADR 亦持续改善。2）25Q3 交通票务营收达到 22.09 亿元，同比+9.0%。主要系公司持续丰富增值产品与服务，且国际机票业务保持 快速增长（25Q3 国际机票业务营收占交通票务总收入比例达 6%，同比提升 2.0pcts）。3）25Q3 其他业务营收达到 8.21 亿元，同比+3 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that Ctrip (00780) has had its target price raised by 5.8% from HKD 24 to HKD 25.4, while maintaining a "Buy" rating [1] - Ctrip's Q3 2025 performance shows total revenue of RMB 5.5 billion, a year-on-year increase of 10.4%, exceeding both the expectations of the company and market consensus by 1% [1] - Adjusted net profit for the same period reached RMB 1.06 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 16.5%, which is 4% and 2% higher than the company's and market's forecasts respectively, driven by better-than-expected operational leverage in the core OTA business [1] Group 2 - The operating profit margin for the core OTA business increased to 31.2% in Q3 2025, slightly above the company's forecast by 0.1 percentage points [1] - The company has adjusted its revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 upwards by 1-3% due to the consolidation of Wanda Hotel Management starting October 2025, which is expected to generate additional revenue [1] - Ctrip anticipates a year-on-year revenue growth of 14% and adjusted net profit growth of 12% in 2026 [1]

总收入55亿元，同比增10%，符合该行及机构一致预期。经调整净利润同比增17%至10.6亿元，略超该 行/市场预期4%/2%，经调整利润率19.2%，同比/环比提升1个/3个百分点，受益于经营费用效率优化。 分业务看，核心OTA经营利润同比增15%至14亿元，经营利润率31.2%，同比稳定，环比提升4个百分 点。 Q3为核心OTA业务旺季 3季度核心OTA收入同比增15%，其中：1)住宿预订收入同比增15%，受益于日均间夜量(创新高)稳健增 长及ADR小幅提升(好于行业)。高质量酒店间夜量同比增20%，快于平台整体间夜量增速，占比持续提 升。2)交通票务预订收入同比增9%，变现率稳定，国际机票业务贡献交通票务收入的6%，同比提升2个 百分点。 智通财经APP获悉，国投证券发布研报称，上调同程旅行(00780)目标价至27.2港元(前值：24.9港元)， 维持买入评级，公司营收与经调整净利润实现高速增长，核心广告平台Mintegral增势强劲，其AI智能出 价产品已广泛采用并成为主要收入来源，公司正通过深化AI技术在素材制作与广告投放环节的应用， 持续提升服务竞争力。 用户ARPPU值提升趋势不变 国投证券主要 ...