资金流向来看，据Wind数据，畜牧养殖ETF（516670）昨日获资金净流入超1638万元，近7个交易日 （10月10日-10月20日）获资金连续净流入近1.5亿元。 证券时报指出，猪价"跌跌不休"导致生猪养殖业陷入全面亏损状态。在上市公司层面，最大生猪养殖企 业牧原股份披露的2025年9月份销售简报显示，9月其商品猪销售均价12.88元/公斤，同比变动-30.94%； 商品猪销售收入90.66亿元，同比变动-22.46%。对于中小养殖户来说，在猪价持续低于成本线情况下， 资金链断裂风险越来越大。数据显示，当前，自繁自养模式下每头猪亏损高达50多元，外购仔猪育肥的 养殖户更是每头猪亏损已经达到约150元。 国金证券分析认为，猪价快速下跌产生抗价情绪，二次育肥入场使得价格小幅反弹，目前猪价仍处于下 跌趋势，全行业处于亏损状态，同时从出栏均重角度看，猪价下跌的过程中行业库存未曾出现大幅下 降，本周生猪出栏均重为128.25公斤/头，依旧处于历史中高区间。从供给端角度来看，接下来几个月 生猪出栏环比持续增加，叠加控制二育增强，季节性累库空间有限，生猪价格仍有下探空间。年前政策 端主动去产能或持续推进，同时板块的持续 ...

Core Insights - The market is experiencing a slight cooling of trading funds, with indicators of market profitability and sentiment returning to historical mid-levels, suggesting that the market correction may be sufficient [2] - Trading funds are still active, but retail and margin financing funds have shifted to net outflows, indicating a slowdown in the inflow rate of margin financing [2][3] - There is a rebound in the willingness of allocation funds to "buy the dip," with public fund positions showing signs of recovery for the first time since mid-August [4] Trading Funds Activity - The number of investors participating in trading has marginally decreased to levels seen in early September, with retail funds showing a net outflow of 13.7 billion [3][10] - The inflow rate of margin financing has significantly slowed, with a net outflow of 12.8 billion last week, marking the lowest trading activity since September 2025 [3][16] - The number of private equity fund registrations has rebounded to 270, returning to mid-August issuance levels [3] Allocation Funds Behavior - Public fund positions have shown a recovery for the first time since mid-August, with funds adopting a "barbell" strategy by increasing allocations in defensive sectors like finance while also betting on consumer sectors [4][30] - Active allocation foreign capital saw a net inflow of 7.8 billion during the last reporting period, marking a new high for 2025 [4] Northbound Capital Analysis - Northbound capital has slightly reduced its holdings in A-shares, with technology sectors being the main focus for increased investment, particularly in electronics and power equipment [5] - In the consumer sector, funds have reduced holdings in liquor and pharmaceuticals, while increasing investments in pig farming [5] Fund Flow Overview - Retail funds experienced a net outflow of 13.7 billion, with net inflows observed in banking, non-bank financials, and metals, while outflows were noted in computing and basic chemicals [6][10] - Margin financing funds saw a net outflow of 12.8 billion, with inflows into non-bank financials and basic chemicals, while outflows occurred in electronics and communications [6][16] - Public funds have seen a rebound in both new issuance and existing fund positions, with an increase in equity allocations [6][30] ETF Activity - Last week, stock ETFs saw a net inflow of 19 billion, while broad-based ETFs experienced a net outflow of 18.8 billion, with significant inflows in sectors like metals and banking [40][41] - The average trading volume of ETFs has increased to 200 billion since mid-July, compared to 100 billion in the first half of 2025 [40] Private Equity Trends - The number of private equity fund registrations has increased, indicating a stable market environment despite recent adjustments [52][57] - The average position of subjective long-only private equity funds has risen to 78%, with a significant proportion of managers planning to increase their positions [52]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The supply and demand of live pigs are both increasing, but the supply growth rate is still relatively large, resulting in a relatively loose supply - demand situation. However, currently driven by the active replenishment demand of secondary fattening, the supply has decreased temporarily, and the spot price shows an oscillating rebound. The supply of live pigs before the Spring Festival is expected to maintain a slight increase, and the 2601 contract may rebound under the drive of the spot market. Attention should be paid to the sustainability and volume of secondary fattening replenishment in the later stage [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Futures Market**: On the 20th, the main 2601 contract of live pigs opened slightly higher and then fluctuated upwards, closing with a positive line. The highest price was 12,280 yuan/ton, the lowest was 11,800 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 12,155 yuan/ton, up 2.88% from the previous day. The total open interest of the index decreased by 9,613 lots to 290,797 lots [7]. - **Spot Market**: On the 20th, the average price of ternary live pigs nationwide was 11.27 yuan/kg, up 0.1 yuan/kg from the previous day [7]. - **Supply - side**: According to the sample data of Yongyi, the planned live pig slaughter volume of sample enterprises in October increased by 5.14% compared with the actual slaughter volume in September, and the slaughter volume may continue to increase significantly. The slaughter weight increases seasonally and slightly. In the long term, the live pig slaughter volume is expected to maintain a slight increase until the first half of next year [8]. - **Demand - side**: Currently, secondary fattening has high replenishment enthusiasm due to low meat - making costs, an expanding price difference between fat and standard pigs, and low pen utilization rates. As the weather in the south turns cold rapidly, terminal consumer demand may continue to rise, and the orders of slaughtering enterprises have slightly increased, with the slaughtering rate and volume increasing slightly. On October 20th, the slaughter volume of sample slaughtering enterprises was 164,600 heads, a decrease of 1,900 heads from the previous day, an increase of 5,400 heads week - on - week, and an increase of 12,600 heads month - on - month [8]. 3.2 Industry News - On October 16th, the average profit per head of self - breeding and self - raising live pigs was - 188.5 yuan/head, a week - on - week decrease of 111 yuan/head; the average profit per head of purchasing piglets for breeding was - 432.2 yuan/head, a week - on - week decrease of 112 yuan/head [9][11]. 3.3 Data Overview - **15kg Piglet Price**: In the week of October 16th, the average market sales price of 15kg piglets was 265 yuan/head, a decrease of 17 yuan/head from the previous week [13]. - **Price Difference between Fat and Standard Pigs**: In the week of October 16th, the price difference between 175 - kg fat pigs and standard pigs was 0.60 yuan/jin, a week - on - week increase of 0.1 yuan/jin [13]. - **Fattening Cost**: The cost of fattening from 110 kg to 140 kg this week was 11.63 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.04 yuan/kg from the previous week; the cost of fattening from 125 kg to 150 kg was 11.95 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.04 yuan/kg from the previous week [13]. - **Average Slaughter Weight**: As of the week of October 16th, the average slaughter weight of live pigs nationwide was 128.25 kg, a decrease of 0.23 kg from the previous week (a week - on - week decrease of 0.18%), a decrease of 0.20 kg from the previous month (a month - on - month decrease of 0.16%), and an increase of 1.91 kg compared with the same period last year (a year - on - year increase of 1.51%) [13]. - **Slaughtering Enterprise Operating Rate**: In the week of October 16th, the operating rate of slaughtering enterprises was 32.38%, a decrease of 2.15 percentage points from the previous week and an increase of 5.07 percentage points year - on - year. The operating rate of enterprises fluctuated in the range of 30.95 - 34.44% during the week, and the enterprise operation was slowly rising [13].

融券方面，牧原股份10月20日融券偿还1.65万股，融券卖出2.29万股，按当日收盘价计算，卖出金额 113.31万元；融券余量33.64万股，融券余额1664.58万元，超过近一年80%分位水平，处于高位。 分红方面，牧原股份A股上市后累计派现265.76亿元。近三年，累计派现165.94亿元。 机构持仓方面，截止2025年6月30日，牧原股份十大流通股东中，香港中央结算有限公司位居第三大流 通股东，持股1.49亿股，相比上期增加2047.15万股。华泰柏瑞沪深300ETF（510300）位居第七大流通 股东，持股4865.74万股，相比上期增加398.32万股。易方达沪深300ETF（510310）位居第九大流通股 东，持股3468.03万股，相比上期增加345.23万股。华夏沪深300ETF（510330）位居第十大流通股东， 持股2543.26万股，为新进股东。汇添富中证主要消费ETF（159928）退出十大流通股东之列。 资料显示，牧原食品股份有限公司位于河南省南阳市卧龙区龙升工业园区,香港铜锣湾希慎道33号利园1 期19楼1920室，成立日期2000年7月13日，上市日期2014年1月28日，公司 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - After a continuous rise, high - flying sectors like AI have shown divergence, with funds switching between high - and low - valued stocks and rapid rotation. Market risk appetite has decreased, and the short - term index faces uncertainty. However, in the long run, with policy support for the capital market remaining unchanged, the main strategy is to go long on dips [4]. - Recently, Sino - US trade disputes have flared up again, and the short - term decline in risk appetite is conducive to the recovery of the bond market. But the future of tariff progress is uncertain. In the fourth quarter, the bond market still needs to focus on the fundamentals and institutional allocation power. Overall, the supply - demand pattern of the bond market may improve, and it is expected to fluctuate, with attention paid to the stock - bond seesaw effect [7]. - The Fed's monetary policy is in the early stage of the easing cycle, and the most important driver, the new Fed chair candidate, has not been announced. It is recommended to maintain a long - position strategy for precious metals [10]. - For most commodities, Sino - US trade frictions and the uncertainty of relevant negotiations have an impact on market sentiment. However, different commodities have different supply - demand fundamentals, which jointly determine their price trends. For the black sector, there is no need to be overly pessimistic, and it may be more cost - effective to look for opportunities to rebound [40][41]. Summary by Category Macro - financial Stock Index - **Market News**: The US listed rare earths, fentanyl, and soybeans as the three major issues in Sino - US economic and trade consultations. CATL's Q3 net profit was 18.5 billion yuan, a 41% year - on - year increase; revenue was 104.19 billion yuan, a 12.9% year - on - year increase. Apple's stock price hit a record high, and iPhone 17 demand was strong. Micron's CBO said the DRAM memory supply situation in 2026 would be more severe [2]. - **Strategy**: After the previous rise, high - flying sectors face divergence, and short - term index is uncertain. In the long run, it is advisable to go long on dips [4]. Treasury Bonds - **Market News**: On Monday, TL, T, TF, and TS main contracts all declined. The GDP in the first three quarters increased by 5.2% year - on - year. September's social consumption, fixed - asset investment, and real estate - related data showed different trends [5]. - **Strategy**: Sino - US trade disputes are beneficial to the bond market in the short term, but the future is uncertain. In the fourth quarter, focus on fundamentals and institutional allocation power. The bond market may fluctuate, and pay attention to the stock - bond seesaw effect [7]. Precious Metals - **Market News**: Shanghai gold and silver prices rose. The market has priced in two consecutive 25 - basis - point interest rate cuts in October and December. The Fed may end quantitative tightening, and small - bank loan risks have supported precious metal prices [8][9]. - **Strategy**: Maintain a long - position strategy for precious metals. The reference range for Shanghai gold is 934 - 1050 yuan/gram, and for Shanghai silver is 10937 - 12500 yuan/kilogram [10]. Non - ferrous Metals Copper - **Market News**: Overnight, copper prices fluctuated and rose. LME copper inventory decreased, and domestic social and bonded - area inventories increased. The spot premium in Shanghai and Guangdong changed, and the import loss narrowed [12]. - **Strategy**: Sino - US trade negotiations are uncertain, but sentiment has improved. Copper raw material supply is tight, and prices may be strong in the short term. The reference range for Shanghai copper is 84800 - 86500 yuan/ton, and for LME copper 3M is 10600 - 10800 dollars/ton [13]. Aluminum - **Market News**: Aluminum prices fluctuated and declined. LME and domestic inventories changed, and the market trading atmosphere was light [14]. - **Strategy**: Sino - US trade tensions have eased, and the price may be strong in the short term. The reference range for Shanghai aluminum is 20800 - 21100 yuan/ton, and for LME aluminum 3M is 2750 - 2800 dollars/ton [15]. Zinc - **Market News**: Shanghai zinc index rose slightly, and LME zinc fell. Domestic and overseas inventories and basis changed [16]. - **Strategy**: Domestic zinc ore inventory decreased, and zinc ingot inventory increased. It is expected to be weak in the short term [18]. Lead - **Market News**: Shanghai lead index fell slightly. Domestic and overseas inventories and basis changed, and domestic social inventory decreased [19]. - **Strategy**: Lead ore port inventory increased, and downstream demand improved. It is expected to be strong in the short term [19]. Nickel - **Market News**: Nickel prices fluctuated at a low level. Spot prices were stable, and nickel ore and nickel - iron prices were also stable. MHP coefficient prices were high [20]. - **Strategy**: In the short term, Sino - US trade frictions may have a limited impact. Nickel - iron prices are weak, and inventory pressure is high. In the long run, there is support. It is recommended to wait and see, and consider going long on dips [20]. Tin - **Market News**: Shanghai tin prices fell. Supply was tight due to slow tin - mine复产 in Myanmar and crackdown on illegal mining in Indonesia. Demand in some sectors was weak, but there was marginal improvement in the peak season [21]. - **Strategy**: In the short term, Sino - US trade frictions may affect sentiment, but supply - demand is in tight balance, and prices may fluctuate at a high level. It is recommended to wait and see [21]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market News**: The spot index of lithium carbonate rose, and the futures price also increased slightly [22]. - **Strategy**: The downstream of lithium batteries is in the peak season, and supply is less than demand. Pay attention to the supply recovery. The reference range for the 2601 contract is 73800 - 78000 yuan/ton [23]. Alumina - **Market News**: The alumina index rose slightly. Spot prices, overseas prices, and inventory changed [24]. - **Strategy**: Ore prices have short - term support but may be under pressure after the rainy season. The smelting capacity is in excess, but the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation may support prices. It is recommended to wait and see [25]. Stainless Steel - **Market News**: Stainless - steel futures prices fell slightly. Spot prices, raw - material prices, and inventory changed [26]. - **Strategy**: The price limit increase by Qing Shan Steel has boosted market confidence, but demand is limited. It is expected to fluctuate in the short term [27]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market News**: Cast - aluminum - alloy prices fell. Inventory and trading volume changed [28]. - **Strategy**: Sino - US trade negotiations may improve sentiment, but high warehouse receipts limit the upward space [29]. Black Building Materials Steel - **Market News**: Rebar and hot - rolled coil prices changed. Futures and spot prices, inventory, and trading volume all had corresponding changes [31]. - **Strategy**: The overall commodity market was weak. Steel prices may fluctuate in the short term, and the long - term trend is unchanged. Pay attention to the Fourth Plenary Session and Sino - US negotiations [32]. Iron Ore - **Market News**: Iron - ore futures prices fell slightly. Spot prices, basis, and inventory changed [33]. - **Strategy**: Supply has increased, and demand has decreased. Steel - mill profitability has declined, and prices are expected to be weak. Pay attention to the support at 760 - 765 yuan/ton [34]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Market News**: Glass prices rose, and soda - ash prices rose slightly. Inventory, trading volume, and basis changed [35][37]. - **Strategy**: Glass and soda - ash markets are expected to be weak in the short term due to high inventory and weak demand [36][37]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market News**: Manganese - silicon and ferrosilicon futures prices rose slightly. Spot prices and basis changed [38]. - **Strategy**: Sino - US trade frictions and weak demand have pressured prices, but the market may have expectations for future meetings. It is recommended to look for opportunities to rebound. Manganese silicon may follow the black - sector trend, and ferrosilicon has no obvious supply - demand contradiction [40][41]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Market News**: Industrial - silicon prices rose, and polysilicon prices fell. Spot prices, inventory, and basis changed [42][44]. - **Strategy**: Industrial - silicon supply is under pressure, and it is expected to fluctuate. Polysilicon supply may decrease at the end of the month, and prices are expected to fluctuate within a range [43][46]. Energy and Chemicals Rubber - **Market News**: Rubber prices fluctuated and recovered. Typhoon Fengshen may affect production areas. Tire - enterprise operating rates changed, and inventory decreased [48][50]. - **Strategy**: Rubber prices are stable in the short term. It is recommended to go long with a stop - loss and consider a hedging strategy [52]. Crude Oil - **Market News**: Crude - oil futures prices fell, and refined - oil futures prices changed. Inventory data showed different trends [53]. - **Strategy**: Although geopolitical premiums have disappeared, OPEC's supply has not increased significantly. It is recommended to wait and see and use a range - trading strategy [54]. Methanol - **Market News**: Methanol prices changed. Spot prices, basis, and inventory changed [55]. - **Strategy**: Import unloading is delayed, and supply has decreased slightly. Demand is weak. It is recommended to wait and see [56]. Urea - **Market News**: Urea prices changed. Spot prices, basis, and inventory changed [57]. - **Strategy**: Short - term production has decreased, and demand is weak. Prices are expected to fluctuate in a narrow range. It is recommended to wait and see or consider going long on dips [58]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market News**: Pure - benzene and styrene prices changed. Cost, supply, demand, and inventory data all had corresponding changes [59]. - **Strategy**: Spot and futures prices fell, and the basis strengthened. Supply is abundant, and demand is increasing seasonally. Prices may stop falling [60]. PVC - **Market News**: PVC prices rose. Cost, supply, demand, and inventory data all had corresponding changes [61]. - **Strategy**: Supply is strong, demand is weak, and export expectations are poor. It is recommended to go short on rallies [62]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market News**: Ethylene - glycol prices were stable. Supply, demand, and inventory data all had corresponding changes [63]. - **Strategy**: Supply is increasing, and inventory is rising. It is recommended to go short on rallies [64]. PTA - **Market News**: PTA prices fell. Supply, demand, and inventory data all had corresponding changes [65]. - **Strategy**: Supply is increasing, and demand is stable. It is recommended to wait and see [66]. p - Xylene - **Market News**: p - Xylene prices fell. Supply, demand, and inventory data all had corresponding changes [67]. - **Strategy**: PX load is high, and downstream demand is weak. It is recommended to wait and see [69]. Polyethylene (PE) - **Market News**: PE prices rose. Spot prices, basis, and inventory data all had corresponding changes [70]. - **Strategy**: Futures prices rose. Supply is high, and demand is increasing seasonally. Prices are expected to fluctuate at a low level [71]. Polypropylene (PP) - **Market News**: PP prices rose. Spot prices, basis, and inventory data all had corresponding changes [72]. - **Strategy**: Futures prices rose. Supply is high, and demand is weak. Prices are under pressure [73]. Agricultural Products Live Pigs - **Market News**: Pig prices mainly rose. There are risks in product sales, and demand may decrease [75]. - **Strategy**: Supply exceeds demand, and it is recommended to sell on rallies [76]. Eggs - **Market News**: Egg prices fell. Supply is normal, and demand is weak [77]. - **Strategy**: Spot prices may rebound slightly, but the space is limited. It is recommended to wait and see [78]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - **Market News**: CBOT soybeans rose. Domestic soybean - meal prices were stable, and inventory decreased [79]. - **Strategy**: Domestic supply pressure is high, and it is recommended to sell on rallies [82]. Oils and Fats - **Market News**: Malaysian palm - oil exports increased, and production also increased. Domestic palm - oil and soybean - oil inventories changed [83]. - **Strategy**: There is support for the price center. It is recommended to buy on dips [84]. Sugar - **Market News**: Sugar futures prices rebounded slightly, and spot prices fell. Brazilian production data and Chinese import data were released [85]. - **Strategy**: It is expected to be bearish in the long run, and it is recommended to sell on rallies in the fourth quarter [87]. Cotton - **Market News**: Cotton futures prices rebounded. Spot prices, acquisition prices, and import data all had corresponding changes [88]. - **Strategy**: Sino - US trade conflicts and weak fundamentals limit the upward space. It is expected to fluctuate weakly [89].

Core Viewpoint - The overall demand for live pigs during the National Day holiday showed a "peak season not prosperous" trend, with prices declining and supply pressures expected to persist post-holiday [1][3]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - After the National Day holiday, the supply pressure in the live pig market is unlikely to ease, leading to a significant imbalance between supply and demand, with the average price of live pigs reported at 10.95 yuan/kg, a year-on-year decrease of 38.96% [1][3]. - The futures market for live pigs saw a decline, with the main contract hitting a record low of 11,120 yuan/ton on October 13, indicating a pessimistic market sentiment regarding future supply and demand dynamics [3]. Policy and Regulatory Environment - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs has held multiple meetings to promote high-quality development in the pig industry, suggesting measures such as reducing the number of breeding sows and controlling new production capacity [4]. - A significant policy directive was issued requiring the top 25 pig farming enterprises to reduce their breeding sows by 1 million heads by the end of January 2026, representing about 10% of their current stock [4]. Current Industry Metrics - As of August 2025, the national breeding sow stock was reported at 40.38 million heads, slightly above the normal range, indicating a temporary oversupply situation [5]. - The production efficiency in the pig farming industry has improved, with the average number of weaned piglets per sow increasing from 24 to over 26, leading to prolonged capacity cycles [5]. Market Behavior and Trends - Due to falling prices, many large-scale enterprises are accelerating their slaughtering processes to mitigate losses, resulting in a 3% increase in daily slaughter volumes post-holiday [6]. - The current market shows a decline in both the operating rates and slaughter volumes of sample enterprises, indicating insufficient consumer demand to absorb the increasing supply [6]. Future Market Outlook - The supply of live pigs remains excessive, and weak downstream demand is expected to keep prices under pressure, with short-term price fluctuations likely to continue [7]. - Seasonal demand may increase towards the end of the year, but the overall market is anticipated to maintain a trend of supply growth outpacing demand growth, with prices expected to remain low even during traditional peak seasons [7].

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - **Consumer Sector**: The retail sales growth is slowing down, with both commodity retail and catering revenues performing poorly. Appliance sales are particularly weak due to the cooling real estate market, while only a few categories like sports and entertainment products have seen growth exceeding 10% [1][3][4]. - **Pork Farming Sector**: The sector is undergoing a capacity reduction, with a focus on large-scale, low-cost producers like Muyuan and Wens, as well as significant improvements in New Hope [2][34][35]. - **E-commerce and Internet Sector**: Major players like Alibaba, JD, and Pinduoduo are currently at low levels, with expectations for cloud business growth to accelerate to around 30% in Q3 [22][23]. Key Insights and Arguments - **Retail Sales Performance**: In September 2025, the year-on-year growth rate of social retail sales was only 3%, a decline from August. This trend indicates a significant drop in consumer spending since the second half of the year [3][4][8]. - **Weakness in Commodity Retail**: The commodity retail sector saw a year-on-year growth of only 3.3% in September, the lowest for 2025, primarily dragging down overall retail sales [4][5]. - **Challenges in Consumer Market**: The slowing growth of disposable income, which fell to 4.5% in Q3, is a major challenge for the consumer market. Measures to increase income and reduce burdens are necessary to improve consumer confidence [8][9][10]. - **Beverage Industry Performance**: Notable companies like Nongfu Spring are expected to see over 25% growth in Q3, while the Dongfang Shuying brand is projected to grow over 50% [11]. - **Snack Industry Dynamics**: The snack sector, particularly Wei Long's spicy strips, has rebounded, with konjac products maintaining a growth rate of 40-50% [12]. - **Jewelry Sector Trends**: Brands like Chow Tai Fook have benefited from rising gold prices, achieving better-than-expected sales, while established brands have a competitive edge due to their brand strength and design capabilities [13]. - **Cloud and E-commerce Business Outlook**: The cloud business is expected to grow by around 30%, while traditional e-commerce is stabilizing with a projected 10% growth in customer management revenue [23][25]. Additional Important Insights - **Policy Measures for Consumer Confidence**: Key policy measures include reducing burdens related to healthcare and pensions to increase disposable income and improve public service supply [9][10]. - **Investment Recommendations**: Companies like Alibaba and JD are recommended for their strong fundamentals and potential for recovery, despite current low valuations [22][26][27]. - **Pork Farming Capacity Reduction Logic**: The logic behind capacity reduction in the pork farming sector is strengthening, with a focus on large producers to stabilize prices [34]. - **Hai Da Group's IPO Plans**: Hai Da Group plans to IPO its overseas assets, which is expected to support long-term growth despite potential short-term dilution concerns [37][38]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights and trends across various sectors, highlighting both challenges and opportunities for investors.

Core Viewpoint - The pig farming industry is experiencing a prolonged downturn, with prices continuing to decline and the entire sector facing significant losses [2][3][4]. Price Decline and Industry Losses - After the National Day holiday, pig prices have accelerated their decline, leading to widespread losses across the industry. Despite multiple government interventions, including the storage of frozen pork, the market remains unresponsive [2][3]. - On October 9, the first trading day after the holiday, the main pig futures contract closed at 11,595 yuan/ton, a single-day drop of 6.15%. By October 17, the price fell to 11,020 yuan/ton, although there was a slight rebound by October 20, remaining below 11,500 yuan/ton [3]. - The average purchase price for pigs was reported at 13.45 yuan/kg, down 3.0% week-on-week and 29.2% year-on-year, while the average ex-factory price for pork was 17.58 yuan/kg, down 2.7% week-on-week and 28.5% year-on-year [3]. - The price of pigs has dropped to 11.18 yuan/kg, a year-on-year decrease of 35.41%, which is below the cost line for most farmers [3][4]. Impact on Farmers - The continuous decline in pig prices has resulted in significant losses for pig farming operations. For instance, the largest pig farming company, Muyuan Foods, reported a sales average of 12.88 yuan/kg in September, a year-on-year decrease of 30.94% [4]. - Small and medium-sized farmers are facing increasing risks of cash flow issues, with losses per pig reaching over 50 yuan for self-bred pigs and around 150 yuan for those purchasing piglets for fattening [4]. "Luohe Sample" Support - The "Luohe Sample," a project combining insurance and futures, has been instrumental in providing financial support to farmers during this downturn. This initiative has been in place since 2021 and has helped local farmers manage their financial risks [5][6]. - The project has been successful in mitigating losses for farmers, with one farm receiving over 180,000 yuan in compensation due to price declines, demonstrating a compensation rate of nearly 364% [6][7]. - Over the past five years, the project has served approximately 239 farmers, covering 22,580 pigs, with total premiums exceeding 25.7 million yuan and project amounts nearing 400 million yuan [7][8]. Evolution of the Insurance and Futures Model - The "insurance + futures" model has evolved significantly since its introduction, becoming a crucial tool for agricultural risk management. It has expanded from pilot projects to nationwide implementation, benefiting various agricultural sectors [8][9]. - The Luohe project has not only protected local farmers' interests but has also filled gaps in traditional agricultural insurance, promoting a more integrated approach to risk management in the pig farming industry [8][9].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the first three quarters of 2025, the year-on-year growth rates of pig inventory, pig slaughter volume, and pork production further expanded compared to the first half of the year, leading to supply - side pressure and a continuous decline in pig prices to historical lows [14]. - The pig production capacity cycle in China has likely peaked, with the farrowing sow inventory peaking in August 2025 and declining in September. According to the theoretical calculation of pig slaughter 10 months after farrowing sow inventory, the pig slaughter volume is expected to peak around June next year, and the supply pressure will remain high [14][15]. - The low pig price in October is likely the first emotional bottom - building. Considering the continuous supply pressure and the off - season of demand, there is a high probability of a second bottom - building in pig prices in the first half of next year [15]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Pig Inventory - At the end of the third quarter, the national pig inventory was 436.8 million heads, a year - on - year increase of 9.86 million heads (2.3%) and a quarter - on - quarter increase of 12.33 million heads (2.9%). It is expected to continue growing in the fourth quarter due to the previous growth of farrowing sow inventory [6][7]. Farrowing Sow Inventory - At the end of September, the farrowing sow inventory was 40.35 million heads, a year - on - year decrease of 280,000 heads (0.7%) and a quarter - on - quarter decrease of 90,000 heads (0.2%). The decline indicates that the industry has entered a production capacity reduction cycle due to losses in piglet sales and pig fattening caused by low pig prices [3]. Pig Slaughter Volume - In the first three quarters, the national pig slaughter volume was 529.92 million heads, a year - on - year increase of 9.62 million heads (1.8%), with the growth rate 1.2 percentage points higher than that in the first half of the year and continuous growth for three quarters. In the third quarter, the pig slaughter volume was 163.73 million heads, compared with 156.35 million heads in the same period last year [9]. Pork Production - In the first three quarters, the pork production was 43.68 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.28 million tons (3.0%), reaching the highest level in the past 10 years. The increase is due to the 1.8% year - on - year increase in pig slaughter volume and the higher average pig slaughter weight than the previous year (128.25 kg as of October 16 this year compared to 126.34 kg last year) [11][12].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the agricultural, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry [9][62]. Core Views - The swine sector is undergoing deepening regulation, with a focus on value reassessment opportunities. The report suggests that the price of pigs may face downward pressure in the short term due to increased market supply, but regulatory measures are expected to stabilize prices in the long run [1][16]. - The poultry sector is anticipated to improve, with data indicating a rise in the number of breeding stock and a shift towards self-breeding [2][27]. - The animal health sector is seeing a potential improvement in competitive dynamics, particularly with the progress of clinical trials for African swine fever vaccines, which could enhance market conditions [3][35]. - The pet economy is thriving, with domestic brands gaining strength and the market expected to continue its rapid growth [9][55]. Summary by Sections Swine - The swine industry is in a regulatory phase aimed at controlling prices through capacity reduction. The average price of pigs is reported at 11.02 yuan/kg, with a weekly decrease of 0.87 yuan/kg. The number of breeding sows is stable at 40.38 million heads [15][16]. - Recommended companies include Muyuan Foods and Wens Foodstuffs, with additional attention on Dekang Agriculture, Shennong Group, and Juxing Agriculture [1][16]. Poultry - The poultry sector shows signs of improvement, with a total of 80.33 thousand sets of breeding stock updated in the first three quarters of 2025. The report highlights a shift towards self-breeding, with self-bred stock accounting for 59% [2][27]. - Recommended companies in this sector are Shennong Development and Lihua Stock [2][27]. Animal Health - The competitive landscape in the animal health sector is expected to improve, supported by government initiatives to optimize the veterinary drug industry. The report notes that clinical trials for African swine fever vaccines are underway, which could lead to commercialization [3][35]. - Recommended companies include Kexin Biological and Ruipu Biological, with additional focus on Huisheng Biological, Zhongmu Biological, and others [3][35]. Planting - The report indicates a declining pig-to-grain price ratio, with the current ratio at 4.95. The prices of corn and soybean meal have shown slight fluctuations, with corn priced at 2181 yuan/ton [39][44]. - Companies to watch include Suqian Agricultural Development, Longping High-Tech, and Denghai Seeds [7][44]. Feed - Feed prices are experiencing fluctuations, with the price for fattening pig feed at 3.34 yuan/kg. The report notes a year-on-year increase in industrial feed production [45][46]. - Recommended companies include Haida Group and He Feng Shares [45][46]. Pets - The pet market is projected to reach 300.2 billion yuan in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 7.5%. The report highlights the increasing consumption per pet, with dogs averaging 2961 yuan and cats 2020 yuan annually [55][56]. - Recommended companies in the pet food sector include Guibao Pet, Zhongchong Shares, and Petty Shares, with Ruipu Biological in the pet medical sector [9][55].