农林牧渔行业：欧盟猪肉反倾销税 落地，国内供需格局向好 2025 年 12 月 25 日 看好/维持 农林牧渔 行业报告 事件：商务部宣布，自 2025 年 12 月 17 日起，中国对原产于欧盟的进口猪肉 及猪副产品征收反倾销税，实施期限 5 年，税率范围为 4.9%至 19.8%。 进口压力缓解，行业供需根本仍在国内。为期 5 年反倾销税的征收有利于缓解 低价进口猪肉及副产品对我国市场的压力，然而仍需清醒地认识到，我国猪价 变化的决定因素是国内供需格局。截至 2025 年 10 月，国内能繁母猪存栏量 3990 万头，仍高于 3900 万头的正常保有量，未来一段时间行业供过于求，价 格低迷的趋势仍将持续，在政策管控和行业亏损下，行业落后产能将进一步去 化。国内养殖行业将向提升养殖效率，降低养殖成本，绿色化智能化的方向升 级，持续修炼内功，提升竞争力。短期来看，生猪养殖行业供需格局向好，推 荐关注生猪养殖行业的左侧布局机会；中长期来看，行业高质量发展，市场集 中度有望进一步提升。重点推荐养殖头部企业牧原股份，其他受益标的有温氏 股份、德康农牧、天康生物、神农集团等。 风险提示：生猪产能去化不及预期，市场消费 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that Zhengbang Technology's stock has seen a significant increase, with a rise of 5.83% to 3.63 CNY per share, and a trading volume of 647 million CNY, reflecting a turnover rate of 2.58% and a total market capitalization of 33.578 billion CNY [1] - Zhengbang Technology, established on September 26, 1996, and listed on August 17, 2007, is primarily engaged in feed production and sales, pig breeding and sales, and veterinary drug production and sales. The revenue composition is as follows: pig farming 59.63%, complete feed 38.31%, veterinary drugs 0.92%, concentrated feed 0.62%, and others 0.51% [1] Group 2 - From the perspective of fund holdings, one fund under ICBC Credit Suisse has a significant position in Zhengbang Technology. The ICBC Agricultural Industry Stock Fund (001195) held 6 million shares in the third quarter, accounting for 4.08% of the fund's net value, making it the eighth largest holding. The estimated floating profit today is approximately 1.2 million CNY [2] - The ICBC Agricultural Industry Stock Fund (001195) was established on May 26, 2015, with a current scale of 439 million CNY. Year-to-date returns are 13.5%, ranking 3245 out of 4197 in its category; the one-year return is 13.63%, ranking 3156 out of 4170; and since inception, the return is 5.9% [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that the national pig price is stabilizing with localized adjustments as the market enters a critical year-end period, despite the lack of significant traditional consumption peak characteristics [1][12] - The overall price level for the national external three yuan pig is approximately between 11.48-11.56 yuan/kg, showing a slight increase or stability compared to the previous day [2][13] - Market sentiment is showing an increase in bullish outlook, but actual transactions remain stagnant, with large-scale farming enterprises maintaining normal sales rhythms while smallholders exhibit a tendency to hold back sales [2][13] Group 2 - Regional price differentiation is a notable characteristic of the current market, with significant price gaps between high and low price areas, such as Shandong's prices ranging from 12.10-12.30 yuan/kg, while prices in regions like Xinjiang are lower [2][13] - Short-term supply tightening is influenced by smallholders' reluctance to sell and a temporary supply gap in some northern regions due to disease, which directly supports current spot prices [6][16] - Long-term supply remains robust, with the national breeding sow inventory at 39.90 million heads as of the end of October, indicating a sufficient supply foundation despite ongoing industry losses since October [6][16] Group 3 - Demand characteristics show a significant reduction in seasonal demand's impact on price, particularly in Guangdong, the largest pig sales region, where weak demand has emerged earlier than in previous years [7][17] - Policies from central to local levels aim to stabilize the market, focusing on reducing weight, stabilizing production capacity, and limiting secondary fattening practices to create an environment for long-term capacity reduction [9][18] - Recent feed raw material prices have stabilized, leading to a decrease in the total breeding costs for leading enterprises, although high costs for purchasing piglets still exist, providing some support for current prices [10][19] Group 4 - The futures market has shown a rebound, with the main contract for live pig futures on the Dalian Commodity Exchange rising by 0.88%, indicating a slight easing of pessimism regarding future prices [20] - The wholesale market price for pork has seen a narrowing decline of 0.4% in the last week, suggesting a slowdown in the drop of terminal prices [20] - The national pig price is expected to enter a narrow fluctuation adjustment phase before New Year's, influenced by the interplay between farmers' resistance to selling, secondary fattening support, and weak terminal consumption [11][21]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that Zhengbang Technology's stock has shown a significant increase in price and trading activity, indicating positive market sentiment despite some net outflow of funds [1][2] - As of December 25, Zhengbang Technology's stock price rose by 20.21% year-to-date, with a recent increase of 0.86% over the last five trading days [1] - The company has a market capitalization of 32.468 billion yuan and reported a trading volume of 313 million yuan on December 25 [1] Group 2 - Zhengbang Technology operates primarily in the pig farming sector, with its main business revenue composition being 59.63% from pig farming, 38.31% from complete feed, and 0.92% from veterinary medicine [1][2] - As of November 20, the number of shareholders decreased by 5.45% to 156,200, while the average circulating shares per person increased by 6.76% to 46,233 shares [2] - For the period from January to September 2025, Zhengbang Technology achieved a revenue of 10.658 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 82.58%, but the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 97.25% to 8.2656 million yuan [2] Group 3 - Since its A-share listing, Zhengbang Technology has distributed a total of 2.864 billion yuan in dividends, with no dividends paid in the last three years [3]

京基智农同时斩获两大奖项，彰显其社会责任实践的广泛影响力，为行业树立标杆。在环境(E)层面， 公司采用先进的"楼房养殖+6750自繁自养一体化"养殖模式，有效节约土地资源；生产过程中将养殖粪 污100%转化为有机肥，废水经处理后用于灌溉回用，沼气年发电量达9.4万千瓦时；通过研发生物发酵 技术，在广东徐闻将菠萝加工副产品转化为优质发酵饲料，实现菠萝渣100%资源化利用，形成"种植- 回收-养殖-还田"的绿色闭环。 在社会(S)责任层面，京基智农作为"国家级生猪产能调控基地"及广东省、深圳市、珠海市"菜篮子基 地"，持续为粤港澳大湾区优质猪肉产品保供稳价贡献力量。在乡村振兴领域，公司积极发展"公司+农 户"生猪代养，为合作农户提供技术、资金与市场支持，有效促进农户就业增收，并通过开展捐资助 学、敬老活动、援建乡村基础设施建设、赞助村BA等公益活动持续回馈乡村，2025上半年累计投入公 益资金55.67万元。 近期，京基智农(000048.SZ)在社会责任领域斩获双重荣誉，接连获评两大权威奖项，其深耕ESG建设、 践行社会责任的扎实实践获得行业与社会高度肯定。 12月16日，由上海报业集团智通财经发起的2025【 ...

Summary of Shennong Group Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Shennong Group - **Industry**: Pig Farming Key Points and Arguments Production and Cost Targets - **Expected Output**: Shennong Group anticipates a production volume of 3.5 million pigs in 2025, with a focus on controlling total costs below 12 CNY/kg, aiming for 11.5 CNY/kg [2][6] - **Regional Focus**: The majority of output will be concentrated in Yunnan and the Guangxi and Guangdong regions, with an expected output of nearly 1 million pigs from these areas [2][7] Cost Management Strategies - **Cost Reduction Measures**: The company plans to lower farming costs through several strategies: - Improving PSY (Pigs Weaned per Sow per Year) to 30.3 heads, with a target of over 30 heads next year - Maintaining a feed-to-meat ratio around 2.45 - Achieving a survival rate exceeding 85% - Stabilizing weaning costs at approximately 270 CNY [2][4][9][8] Market Conditions and Price Forecast - **Current Market Trends**: The overall trend for pig prices is declining after a profitable period of about 18 months, with farmers experiencing losses for about a quarter [3] - **Future Price Expectations**: The average pig price for 2026 is expected to be weaker than in 2025, ranging between 12 to 13 CNY/kg, with no significant price rebound anticipated in the first half of the year [15] Production Indicators - **Key Production Metrics**: As of November, the total cost was 12 CNY/kg, with a weaning cost of 269 CNY per head and a PSY of 30.3 heads [4][8] Dependency on Contract Farming - **Contract Farming Model**: Currently, about 70% of production is through contract farming, with plans to increase this to 80% or even 90%. There are no plans for new self-built capacity [5][16] Financial Performance of Other Segments - **Other Business Segments**: - Feed sales have decreased, yielding only slight profits - Slaughtering operations generate annual profits in the tens of millions - The deep processing segment is currently in a strategic loss phase but aims for breakeven within five years [20] Disease Control and Impact - **Disease Management**: The company has maintained stable disease control, with minimal impact from African swine fever and blue ear disease on production [12][14] Capital Expenditure and Dividend Policy - **Capital Expenditure**: The budget for capital expenditure in 2026 is expected to remain stable without significant fluctuations [18] - **Dividend Policy**: Dividends will be considered annually based on operational performance, ensuring funds are available for shareholder needs [19] Regional Cost Differences - **Cost Variations**: There are minor differences in farming costs across regions, with the best facilities achieving costs below 11.5 CNY/kg, while average facilities maintain around 12 CNY/kg [11] Raw Material Price Considerations - **Cost Targets and Raw Materials**: The cost targets for 2026 are based on raw material prices remaining stable compared to 2025, with adjustments made if prices fluctuate significantly [22]

Summary of COFCO Jiajia Kang Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: COFCO Jiajia Kang - **Industry**: Swine Industry Key Points Industry Trends - The swine industry is experiencing a trend of capacity reduction, driven by anti-involution policies, with a potential cyclical turning point expected in the second half of 2026, presenting investment opportunities in the swine sector [2][4] Company Performance - In 2025, COFCO Jiajia Kang demonstrated stable operations, with a year-on-year increase in hog output exceeding 50% from January to November, alongside continuous cost improvements and significant growth in branded fresh products [2][5] - As of November 2025, the company had a cumulative output of 5.465 million hogs, with an average selling price of 13.65 yuan/kg for commercial hogs [2][6] Financial Metrics - The fresh product business achieved cumulative sales of 300,000 tons, with branded revenue accounting for 32.44% of total sales [2][6] - The average cost of production was approximately 13 yuan/kg, with significant regional cost disparities narrowing, and some excellent facilities achieving costs below 11 yuan [2][11][12] Breeding and Production Efficiency - The proportion of high-quality breeding pigs remained stable at over 80%, with production efficiency indicators such as PSY (Pigs Weaned per Sow per Year) reaching close to 29 and MSY (Marketable Pigs per Sow per Year) nearing 27 [2][9] - The company plans to expand its cooperative breeding model, which currently accounts for over 20% of output, while cautiously managing expansion to mitigate disease risks [2][10] Cost Management - The company is implementing cost reduction measures, including optimizing feed formulations and improving production management, with expectations to lower costs by 0.5 to 1 yuan in 2026 [2][14] - The current cost structure shows self-breeding costs around 13 yuan, while cooperative breeding costs are approximately 12 yuan [2][14] Product Development and Market Strategy - The company’s flaxseed pork products saw a cumulative year-on-year growth of 140% from January to November 2025, with plans to maintain a growth rate of at least 50% in 2026 [3][15] - COFCO Jiajia Kang is expanding its fresh product channels by collaborating with major supermarkets and e-commerce platforms, aiming to enhance brand recognition and product diversity [2][16] Future Outlook - The company anticipates entering a favorable profit zone in 2026 due to supply-side capacity reductions and long-term price reversals in the swine market [2][5] - The meat product segment is expected to expand capacity significantly, with a projected total capacity of 52,000 tons by mid-2026 [2][17] Feed Production and Sales - The company has a diversified feed production structure, with pig feed, poultry feed, and ruminant feed each accounting for approximately 30% of total sales [2][18] - Future sales targets aim for steady growth, with new production capacities expected to enhance utilization rates [2][20] Financial Health and Dividend Plans - The company plans to gradually reduce its debt levels over the long term and will consider dividends if profitability remains strong, having already distributed over 1.8 billion yuan since its listing [2][22]

Group 1 - The average wholesale price of pork on December 23 was 17.5 yuan/kg, reflecting a 0.7% increase from December 16, indicating a rebound in pork prices [1] - Since December, the price gap between medium and standard pigs has been insufficient in some regions, leading to a lack of confidence in medium to large pigs, which may accelerate the active reduction of production capacity [2] - The agricultural product wholesale price index decreased by 0.2% from December 16, with a year-on-year increase of 6.9% and a month-on-month increase of 3.3% [2] Group 2 - Historical data shows that the rapid decline in pig prices since mid-October has led to losses across the entire industry chain, which typically accelerates the reduction of production capacity [2] - Investment perspective suggests that the turning point for pork prices may occur in Q2-Q3 of 2026, with the price center expected to gradually rise [2] - The current valuation level of the pig farming sector is relatively low, providing a sufficient margin of safety for investors [2] Group 3 - The Agricultural 50 ETF (516810.SH) focuses on leading companies in the pig farming industry, with major holdings including Muyuan Foods (14%), Wens Foodstuff Group (13%), and Haida Group (6%) [3] - During the capacity reduction process, leading pig farming enterprises are expected to enhance their cost advantages, resulting in strong profit certainty [3]

Core Insights - The event "Wind and Soil Taste: Shanghai's Treasures" showcased five local premium pig breeds, marking a significant step in the branding of Shanghai's local pig industry [1] - The collective brand "Hunan Native Pig" was launched, indicating progress in the branding efforts of Shanghai's local pig industry [1] Group 1: Local Pig Breeds - Shanghai has a rich history of pig farming, giving rise to five distinctive pig breeds: Meishan, Shao Tou, Fengjing, Pudong White, and Shanghai White [1] - Meishan pig is one of the oldest known pig breeds in China and the world, dating back to the Spring and Autumn period [1] - Shanghai White pig is the first domestically bred pig breed in China, developed through careful selection by local farmers over the past century [1] Group 2: Industry Development Initiatives - The Shanghai Swine Industry Association plans to establish a comprehensive industry chain for the "Hunan Native Pig" brand, focusing on source protection, ecological farming, quality traceability, and brand marketing [1] - The integration of family farms in Songjiang District into multi-story pig farms is part of the "14th Five-Year Plan," aiming to enhance high-quality local pig development [2] - Key projects include the construction of multi-layer breeding facilities for Meishan and Fengjing pigs, as well as modern agricultural parks in Chongming [2]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the unusual phenomenon of vegetable prices being higher than pork prices in China, exploring the reasons behind this trend and its implications for consumers' dietary habits and daily lives [3][10]. Group 1: Vegetable Price Surge - Vegetable prices have significantly increased this winter, with common vegetables like cabbage and tomatoes seeing price hikes. For instance, cabbage prices have risen from 1.37 yuan per kilogram last year to 2.38 yuan per kilogram this year, effectively doubling [12][15]. - The price of tomatoes has reached 8-9 yuan per kilogram, making them more expensive than eggs, which are now the main ingredient in dishes like tomato scrambled eggs [3][9]. - The "vegetable basket" price index rose to 127.65 in November, with a month-on-month increase of 6.17 points and a year-on-year increase of 3.55 points [16]. Group 2: Factors Behind Price Increases - Adverse weather conditions, including multiple cold waves in northern China and continuous rainy weather in southern regions, have severely impacted vegetable supply, leading to higher prices [18][21]. - The supply chain disruption has resulted in a mismatch between supply and demand, causing a scarcity of vegetables in the market [21][36]. Group 3: Pork Price Decline - In contrast to vegetables, pork prices have been on a downward trend, with prices dropping by 27% year-on-year. For example, the average price of pork was 11.81 yuan per kilogram in December, continuing a five-week decline [24][26]. - The oversupply of pork is attributed to increased production capacity from pig farmers, leading to a market surplus [26][28]. Group 4: Changing Consumer Behavior - Despite the drop in pork prices, the demand for beef and lamb has remained strong, with beef prices increasing by 8.5% year-on-year. This shift is linked to changing health perceptions among consumers, who are increasingly opting for leaner protein sources [30][32]. - The article highlights a growing awareness of health issues related to diet, with many consumers now prioritizing vegetables and healthier protein options over traditional meat consumption [34][36].