Core Insights - The Central Government's document emphasizes the importance of agricultural modernization for China's overall modernization, highlighting the need to strengthen pig production capacity and promote dairy consumption [1] - The agricultural sector is expected to focus on technological empowerment and enhancing the resilience of the industry chain to support high-quality agricultural development [1] Group 1: Agricultural Policy and Market Trends - The Central Government's document outlines key strategies for agricultural modernization, including stabilizing grain production at around 1.4 trillion jin and diversifying oilseed supply [1] - The average price of live pigs in China has dropped to 12.31 yuan per kilogram, with prices in Guangdong nearing 12 yuan, indicating a recovery in breeding sentiment due to positive farming profits [2] - The Ministry of Agriculture has shifted its focus from "ensuring supply and stabilizing prices" to "protecting farmers' rights and stimulating enterprise innovation," suggesting a new growth logic centered on technology and innovative models [2] Group 2: Agricultural Index and Investment Opportunities - As of January 30, 2026, the top ten weighted stocks in the CSI Agricultural Index account for 51.02% of the index, including companies like Salt Lake Co., Cangge Mining, and Yili Group [2] - The Agricultural ETF (516550) closely tracks the CSI Agricultural Index, providing a convenient tool for investors to gain exposure to the agricultural sector, which includes beverages, agricultural products, and animal health [2] - Investors without stock accounts can also access agricultural investment opportunities through the Agricultural ETF linked fund (019279) [3]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the content Core Views of the Report - The overall commodity market is affected by multiple factors such as geopolitical risks, supply - demand fundamentals, and macroeconomic conditions. Different commodities show various trends, including price fluctuations, supply - demand imbalances, and potential investment opportunities and risks [2][3][4] Summary by Commodity Categories Energy - **Crude Oil**: The prospect of US - Iran negotiations is uncertain. Current conflicts mainly involve sanctions and local military frictions, with the situation controllable. Oil prices are affected by both geopolitical factors and inventory pressure, and are expected to continue to fluctuate [2] - **Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Fuel oil follows the bearish sentiment of the crude - oil market. High - sulfur fuel oil has a relatively tight supply, while low - sulfur fuel oil faces continuous supply pressure. The high - sulfur > low - sulfur pattern may continue [21] - **Asphalt**: Supply pressure is limited. Consumption has improved year - on - year. The second - quarter refineries may face rising raw - material costs. Near - month contracts are supported by cost [22] Precious Metals - **Precious Metals**: Overnight, precious metals rebounded. The narrative of the US dollar credit crisis and global order reshaping remains unchanged, but it is currently mainly a capital game. Precious metals are in a high - level consolidation phase, and investors should wait for volatility to decline [3] Base Metals - **Copper**: US strategic metal stockpiling plans and industry suggestions for commercial discount stockpiling have attracted re - allocation in the copper market. Copper prices are likely to oscillate at high levels, but there is downward pressure around the Spring Festival [4] - **Aluminum**: Overnight, Shanghai aluminum fluctuated slightly. There is adjustment pressure around the Spring Festival due to weak fundamentals and large spot discounts [5] - **Zinc**: After the decline in Shanghai zinc, short - selling sentiment was released, but capital congestion remains high. Zinc is in a situation of weak supply and demand, with seasonal inventory - accumulation pressure during the Spring Festival. The price is expected to oscillate at a high level [7] - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: Shanghai nickel had a weak rebound, and stainless - steel downstream demand is weak. Spot prices are supported by low inventory and strong price - holding intentions of traders [9] - **Tin**: Overnight, LME tin recovered its previous decline. Some point - price buying emerged after the decline in tin prices. After closing the option strategy, investors should wait and see [10] Chemicals - **Carbonate Lithium**: Carbonate lithium rebounded sharply. The futures price is in a high - level oscillation, with high short - term uncertainty [11] - **Polysilicon**: Polysilicon prices rebounded. After the production cut by leading enterprises, the market expects a slight supply - demand gap in February. The price may test the previous high in the short term and may oscillate near the key level if the progress is less than expected [12] - **Industrial Silicon**: Industrial silicon continued to oscillate. The supply may be reduced due to planned production cuts by leading enterprises, and downstream demand is weak. The short - term price is expected to be slightly strong [13] Steel and Iron Ore - **Steel (Rebar & Hot - Rolled Coil)**: Steel prices oscillated at night. Rebar demand is in the off - season, while hot - rolled coil demand and production increased slightly. Overall demand is weak, and the price rebound is restricted [14] - **Iron Ore**: The iron - ore market oscillated. Supply increased slightly but was lower than last year. Demand is at a low level. The overall supply - demand is relatively loose, and the price is expected to oscillate in the short term [15] Coal - Related - **Coke**: Coke prices oscillated. Coking profits are average, and inventory increased slightly. The price is likely to oscillate within a range [16] - **Coking Coal**: Coking - coal prices oscillated. Total inventory increased significantly. The price is expected to oscillate within a range [17] Other Metals and Alloys - **Silicon Manganese**: The price corrected. Supply is in excess, and the price is affected by the "anti - involution" policy [18] - **Silicon Iron**: The price corrected. Supply changed little, and demand has some resilience. The price is affected by supply excess and policy [19] Shipping - **Container Shipping Index (Europe Line)**: The resumption of major Asia - Europe routes by leading shipping companies may put pressure on far - month contracts. The spot price may decline slightly before the Spring Festival and may be under pressure again after the festival. The 04 contract is expected to enter an oscillatory pattern [20] Agricultural Products - **Soybeans and Soybean Meal**: The soybean - meal inventory may decline after the Spring Festival. The short - term trend of US soybeans and Dalian soybean meal is expected to be weak and oscillatory [35] - **Edible Oils (Soybean Oil & Palm Oil)**: US policies are beneficial to North American raw - material demand. The prices of soybean and palm oils are affected by macro factors and are giving back the macro premium [36] - **Rapeseed and Rapeseed Oil**: The supply of rapeseed and rapeseed oil is expected to ease in the first quarter. The short - term trend is expected to be oscillatory [37] - **Soybean No.1**: Policy - led soybean auctions increased market supply. The price is affected by macro factors, and short - term policy and market sentiment should be monitored [38] - **Corn**: The overall corn - selling progress is close to 60%. The price is expected to be weak and oscillatory in the short term, and the post - festival market should be followed [39] - **Livestock and Poultry Products** - **Pigs**: Pig futures are weak. The short - term supply is increasing, and the long - term price is expected to have a low point in the first half of next year [40] - **Eggs**: Egg futures oscillated. The short - term spot price is weak, but there is upward - repair power in the first half of 2026. After the spot price reaches a low point around the Spring Festival, a long - position strategy for the first - half 2026 futures contracts can be considered [41] - **Cotton**: Zhengzhou cotton rose slightly. The short - term trend may be oscillatory. The domestic cotton market shows strong supply and demand. Spinning mills' raw - material demand is resilient, but downstream orders are average. Investors should wait and see for now [42] - **Sugar**: International sugar production varies by country. In China, the market focuses on the production - volume expectation gap. The short - term sugar price faces upward pressure [43] - **Apples**: Apple futures oscillated. The Spring Festival stocking peak has increased cold - storage sales. The market focuses on demand, and the de - stocking speed may be affected [44] - **Wood**: The wood - futures price is at a low level. Low inventory provides some support, and investors should wait and see [45] - **Paper Pulp**: Paper - pulp futures oscillated narrowly. Port inventory continued to increase, and demand support is weak. The price may continue to decline to find support [46] Financial Instruments - **Stock Index**: A - share indexes rose, and index - futures contracts also increased. The short - term market focuses on geopolitical and liquidity factors, and the performance of sectors with performance support should be monitored [47] - **Treasury Bonds**: Treasury - bond futures showed mixed trends. Unilateral trading may have limited short - term market movements, with a box - type oscillation. Opportunities in curve trading should be noted [48]

Market Overview - Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) soft red winter wheat futures closed down approximately 2% due to a significant decline in the commodity market [1] Export Data - As of February 1, the European Union's soft wheat export volume for the 2025/26 year stands at 12.82 million tons, unchanged from the previous year [1] - The EU's barley export volume for the 2025/26 year is reported at 5.77 million tons, an increase from 2.84 million tons last year [1] Policy Developments - The Central Committee of the Communist Party of China and the State Council issued opinions to anchor agricultural modernization and promote rural revitalization, emphasizing the need for enhanced monitoring and information dissemination in agricultural markets [1] - The policy aims to stabilize important agricultural product prices, including setting reasonable minimum purchase prices for rice and wheat, and improving cotton target price policies [1] - The implementation of subsidies for farmland fertility protection, corn and soybean producers, and rice is to be maintained [1] U.S. Wheat Export Inspections - As of the week ending January 29, 2026, U.S. wheat export inspections totaled 326,828 tons, down from a revised 378,991 tons the previous week [1] - Cumulative U.S. wheat export inspections for the current crop year, which began on June 1, amount to 16.69 million tons, compared to 14.07 million tons during the same period last year [1]

期 货 眼 ·日 迹 每日早盘观察 银河期货研究所 2026 年 2 月 4 日 0 / 46 研究所 期货眼·日迹 | | | | 蛋白粕：供应压力较大 | 盘面大幅下行 5 | | --- | --- | | 白糖：国际糖价大涨 | 国内糖价小幅上调 5 | | 油脂板块：美国 | 45z 拟议规则出台，带动油脂上涨较多 6 | | 玉米/玉米淀粉：北港现货偏弱，盘面偏弱震荡 7 | | | 生猪：出栏压力增加 | 现货整体下行 8 | | 花生：花生现货稳定，花生盘面窄幅震荡 9 | | | 鸡蛋：节前备货进入尾声 | 蛋价有所下跌 10 | | 苹果：节前走货尚可，苹果价格坚挺 11 | | | 棉花-棉纱：基本面变化不大 | 棉价有所支撑 12 | | 钢材：需求边际转弱，钢价跟随市场情绪延续震荡 13 | | --- | | 双焦：基本面权重降低，资金扰动加大 13 | | 铁矿：市场预期反复，矿价偏弱运行 14 | | 铁合金：恐慌情绪有所缓和，仍可作为多头配置 15 | | 金银：金银市场回暖，节前风控仍是主线 16 | | --- | | 铂钯：风险释放后行情企稳 贵金属谨慎参与低多机会 1 ...

Core Viewpoint - The National Bureau of Statistics reported on the price changes of important production materials in the circulation market for late January 2026, indicating that 25 products saw price increases, 21 experienced declines, and 4 remained stable compared to mid-January 2026 [1]. Group 1: Price Changes in Major Categories - In the black metal category, prices for rebar, wire rod, and ordinary medium plates decreased by 0.7%, 0.8%, and 0.3% respectively [3]. - In the non-ferrous metal category, electrolytic copper and aluminum ingots saw price drops of 0.9% and 0.3%, while zinc ingots increased by 0.6% [3]. - Chemical products like sulfuric acid and pure benzene experienced price increases of 1.3% and 7.7%, while caustic soda and methanol saw declines of 5.1% and 1.1% [3]. Group 2: Energy and Coal Prices - In the petroleum and natural gas sector, liquefied natural gas (LNG) prices rose by 4.2%, while liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) and diesel prices fell by 1.0% [3]. - Coal prices showed mixed results, with anthracite coal increasing by 0.3% and Shanxi mixed coal decreasing by 1.4% [3]. Group 3: Agricultural Products and Inputs - Among agricultural products, rice and wheat prices increased by 0.2% and 0.3%, while soybean prices rose by 0.4% [4]. - In agricultural production materials, potassium fertilizer prices increased by 0.6%, while pesticide prices rose by 0.8% [4]. - The price of natural rubber increased by 1.5%, while imported pulp prices decreased by 2.1% [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of Each Report Oils and Fats - Palm oil is expected to face downward pressure in the short - term, seeking support at 4,100 ringgit. In the Chinese market, it needs to hold above 9,000 yuan, with strong support at 8,900 yuan. After consolidation, it will choose a new direction after the Spring Festival. - CBOT soybean oil is supported by US - India trade. In China, downstream demand is average, and spot basis quotes will fluctuate narrowly. - Rapeseed oil has weak rebound momentum due to lack of positive factors. Spot prices mainly follow the market [1]. Red Dates - The 25/26 production season of red dates has a pattern of strong supply and weak demand. Spot prices are basically stable, and futures are in a low - valuation range. The price of red dates is expected to fluctuate and bottom out [3]. Apples - In the Shandong Qixia production area, the trading atmosphere has improved slightly, but the sales of farmers' goods are slow. In the sales areas, the arrival of apples in Guangdong has increased, but the digestion of general goods is slow. The price is expected to fluctuate at a high level in the short - term [6][9]. Sugar - ICE raw sugar futures are expected to fluctuate at a low level between 14 - 15 cents. In the Chinese market, the Spring Festival stocking is almost over, and the price is in the bottom - grinding stage. It is expected to follow the overall macro - sentiment and face pressure around 5,300 yuan [13][14]. Corn - In the northeast, corn prices are stable with a weak trend; in the north - central, prices rise and fall. Demand from deep - processing enterprises has a small replenishment demand, while feed enterprises mainly purchase on - demand. Corn prices will fluctuate narrowly in the short - term [16]. Cotton - ICE cotton futures are slightly up. The cotton industry has pressure and support. Cotton consumption is not weak. In the short - term, cotton prices may fluctuate widely, with support around 14,500 yuan [20]. Eggs - In February, the inventory of laying hens in production is expected to decline, but the market may accumulate a large amount of inventory. After the Spring Festival, there will be great pressure to sell goods. The demand is weak, and the main contract is expected to fluctuate weakly within a range [21][22]. Pigs - The spot price of pigs may be supported in the short - term, but the 03 contract on the futures market is expected to remain in a bottom - oscillating pattern due to the off - season demand after the Spring Festival [23][25]. Meal Products - US soybeans maintain a range - bound pattern. In China, the supply of spot goods is loose, and the inventory of soybeans and soybean meal is still high. The pre - festival stocking sentiment is expected to weaken, and the futures market may continue to decline [27]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Oils and Fats - **Price Changes**: On February 3, 2026, the average price of soybeans in Jiangsu decreased by 0.59% compared to the previous day; palm oil in Guangdong increased by 0.89%, and rapeseed oil in Jiangsu increased by 0.76%. - **Basis and Spread**: The basis and spread of various oils and fats also changed to different degrees. For example, the soybean - palm oil spot price difference decreased by 25.49% [1]. Red Dates - **Price and Position**: On February 4, 2026, the main contract of red dates increased by 1.13%. The price difference between different contracts and the basis of spot and futures also changed. The total number of futures warehouse receipts and effective forecasts was at a historical low. - **Market Situation**: The market has a pattern of strong supply and weak demand, and the price is expected to fluctuate and bottom out [3]. Apples - **Price and Market**: On February 4, 2026, the main contract of apples increased by 1.12%. The arrival volume of apples in some fruit wholesale markets increased, and the national cold - storage inventory decreased by 4.21%. - **Production and Sales Areas**: The trading situation in production and sales areas varies, and the price is expected to fluctuate at a high level [6][9]. Sugar - **Futures and Spot**: On February 4, 2026, the futures prices of sugar decreased, and the spot prices in Nanning and Kunming also decreased slightly. The import price and basis of Brazilian sugar also changed. - **Industry Situation**: The cumulative sugar production and sales in China decreased year - on - year, and the industrial inventory increased. The global sugar market surplus is expected to shrink [13][14]. Corn - **Price and Inventory**: On February 4, 2026, the price of corn futures increased slightly, and the basis decreased. The inventory of deep - processing enterprises increased, and the feed enterprises' stocking was basically completed. - **Market Outlook**: Corn prices will fluctuate narrowly in the short - term, and attention should be paid to the grain - selling rhythm and policy release [16]. Cotton - **Price and Inventory**: On February 4, 2026, the futures price of cotton increased, and the spot price decreased. The commercial inventory decreased significantly, and the industrial inventory increased slightly. - **Industry and Market**: The cotton industry has both pressure and support. The demand for pre - festival replenishment by textile enterprises has basically ended, and the cotton price may fluctuate widely in the short - term [20]. Eggs - **Price and Inventory**: On February 4, 2026, the price of egg futures decreased, and the spot price of eggs decreased by 2.37%. The inventory in the production and circulation links increased. - **Market Forecast**: The supply - demand relationship of the egg market has returned to a loose state, and the main contract is expected to fluctuate weakly within a range [21][22]. Pigs - **Futures and Spot**: On February 4, 2026, the futures prices of pigs decreased, and the spot prices in most regions also decreased. The slaughter volume increased, and the breeding profit changed. - **Market Analysis**: The spot price may be supported in the short - term, but the futures market is expected to remain in a bottom - oscillating pattern [23][25]. Meal Products - **Price and Spread**: On February 4, 2026, the prices of soybean meal, rapeseed meal, and soybeans all decreased to different degrees. The basis and spread also changed. - **Market Situation**: US soybeans have limited drivers, and the domestic supply is loose. The pre - festival stocking sentiment is expected to weaken, and the futures market may decline [27].

【行情分析】： 玉米：市场情绪些许扰动，本周港口报价走弱，但是产区价格提涨。短期看，在产地依旧挺价惜售的氛围下，虽然有储备轮储补充，但是供应 增量依旧受限。再加上当期渠道整体库存量不高，下游又有备货的预期的支撑下，玉米价格有望维持阶段性偏强的表现。中长期来看，需重点 关注结构变化，今年粮源依旧存在供应缺口的情况下，重点关注未来进口政策和国内拍储政策变化。 淀粉：深加工行业整体产销保持稳定，开机保持高位，下游季节性备货也使得去库加快。短期看，在节日备货预期和库存去化的背景下，支撑 企业报价维持偏强的态势。中长期需重点关注下游消费节奏变化，这将成为价格走势的关键支撑因素，季节性旺季过后，企业库存是否会持续 去化将成为未来淀粉定价的关键因素。 白糖 现货价格 基差 进口利润 仓单 日期 柳州 南宁 昆明 柳州基差 泰国 巴西 郑盘 2026/01/28 5330 5270 5155 143 195 372 14169 2026/01/29 5370 5320 5190 113 235 412 14208 2026/01/30 5380 5330 5190 132 363 540 14208 2026/02/02 5 ...

农产品早报 2026-02-04 五矿期货农产品早报 组长、生鲜品研究员 从业资格号：F0273729 交易咨询号：Z0002942 邮箱：wangja@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F03116327 交易咨询号：Z0019233 邮箱:yangzeyuan@wkqh.cn 王俊 周二郑州白糖期货价格下跌，郑糖 5 月合约收盘价报 5167 元/吨，较上个交易日下跌 40 元/吨，或 0.77%。 现货方面，广西制糖集团报价 5260-5340 元/吨，较上个交易日下跌 10 元/吨。 杨泽元 软商品、油脂油料研究员 StoneX 预计 2025/26 榨季全球食糖市场将维持供应过剩，预估过剩量为 290 万吨。印度全国糖业合作联 盟联合会(NFCSF)发布数据显示，2025/26 榨季截至 2026 年 1 月 31 日，印度食糖产量已达 1930.5 万吨， 同比增加 16.8%。据海关总署公布的数据显示，2025 年 12 月份我国进口食糖 58 万吨，同比增加 19 万 吨。2025 年我国累计进口食糖 492 万吨，同比增加 57 万吨。2025/26 榨季截至 12 月底我国累计进口食 糖 177 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about industry investment rating in the provided content. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Spring Festival market of A - shares may continue, with an upward - trending and volatile pattern. The sentiment in the bond market has improved, and the short - term rebound trend may continue. [9][10] - In the black market, steel and iron ore are expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term, and iron ore should be shorted on rallies in the medium term. Double - coking prices may fluctuate and consolidate in the short term. [13][15] - For non - ferrous metals and new materials, lithium carbonate is expected to fluctuate widely in the short term, and opportunities to buy on dips can be considered. Polysilicon will run in a wide - range fluctuation, and cautious operation is recommended. [19][20] - In the agricultural products market, cotton is in a high - level consolidation state, and short - term trading is recommended. Sugar is under supply pressure, and short - term trading in the low - level range is advised. Egg futures may show a pattern of near - term weakness and far - term strength. Apples' high - quality supply may remain strong. Corn prices will be in a high - level oscillation before the Spring Festival. Red dates are expected to fluctuate weakly. Hog prices are difficult to rise significantly, and short positions are recommended for near - term contracts. [21][24][27][29][31][32][33] - In the energy and chemical market, crude oil can be shorted on rallies or sell call options. Fuel oil prices will follow the fluctuations of crude oil. Polyolefins may continue to correct. Rubber can sell out - of - the - money put options on dips. Synthetic rubber can be considered for long positions after the Spring Festival. Methanol may have a correction risk. Caustic soda futures are expected to be short - term bearish. Asphalt follows the fluctuations of oil prices. PVC may have a correction risk. The polyester industry chain is expected to continue to weaken. LPG prices are expected to turn from strong to weak and can be shorted on rallies. Pulp and logs are recommended to be on the sidelines. Urea futures should be treated with an oscillatory mindset. [35][36][37][38][39][40][41][42][43][45][46][47][48] Summary by Directory Macro Information - The first central No. 1 document of the "14th Five - Year Plan" was released, aiming at rural revitalization. [10] - There were rumors about the increase in VAT rates in the financial and Internet value - added service industries, but they were refuted. [10] - SpaceX merged with xAI, with a combined valuation of $1.25 trillion, and an IPO is expected later this year. [10] - The central bank will conduct an 800 - billion - yuan 3 - month repurchase operation and increase the net investment in Treasury bond trading in January. [10] - The State - owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission emphasized the development of strategic emerging industries. [10] - 30 provinces have set their GDP growth targets for 2026, with many economic powerhouses aiming for over 5%. [10] - Cambrian refuted false information, and its stock price fell. [10] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology emphasized the development of future industries. [10] - Fujian Province introduced measures to stabilize the real estate market. [10] - The US and Iran will hold talks as planned. [10] Macro Finance Stock Index Futures - The Spring Festival market may continue, with an upward - trending and volatile pattern. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.29% to 4067.74 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 2.19%, the ChiNext Index rose 1.86%, and the Wind All - A Index rose 2.12%. The market turnover decreased to 2.57 trillion yuan. [9] Treasury Bond Futures - The sentiment in the bond market has improved, and the short - term rebound trend may continue. The central bank increased bond purchases, and the market sentiment is slightly optimistic. The 10 - year Treasury bond yield has a limited decline in odds. [10][11] Black Spiral Steel and Iron Ore - Policy impact is low before the Two Sessions. Steel orders are acceptable, but there are issues such as inverted processing fees and high inventory, which suppress steel prices. Iron ore supply is abundant, and the market is loose. Steel and iron ore are expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term, and iron ore should be shorted on rallies in the medium term. [13] Coking Coal and Coke - Double - coking prices may fluctuate and consolidate in the short term. Coal mine production is stable, and the first round of coke price increase has been implemented. In the medium term, domestic mine production is restricted, and the supply - demand contradiction may improve during the Spring Festival. [15] Ferroalloys - In the short term, pay attention to the settlement electricity fees in Inner Mongolia and the changes in manganese ore inventory at ports. Silicon iron has a long - term long - allocation idea, manganese silicon is recommended to be on the sidelines, and the spread between silicon iron and manganese silicon can be long - bought at low levels. [16] Soda Ash and Glass - Soda ash supply is high, and new capacity is expected to increase. Glass has expectations of production line resumption. Currently, it is recommended to be on the sidelines. [17] Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials Lithium Carbonate - In the short term, the market sentiment has cooled, but the price is supported by pre - holiday stocking. In the long term, demand expectations and supply disturbances drive the price upward. It is expected to fluctuate widely, and opportunities to buy on dips can be considered. [19] Polysilicon - It runs in a wide - range fluctuation. Policy expectations are uncertain, and manufacturers are trying to support prices. The supply - demand situation is weak, and it is expected to continue to oscillate. [20] Cotton - It is in a high - level consolidation state. The supply is temporarily loose, and the downstream is affected by the holiday. The long - term price may rise due to the expected reduction in planting area. [21][23] Sugar - It is under supply pressure. The global sugar supply is in surplus, and domestic supply is increasing. It is recommended to conduct short - term trading in the low - level range. [24][25][26] Eggs - Before the Spring Festival, egg prices may weaken. The in - production inventory is still high, and the off - season after the Spring Festival is expected to be "not off - peak" with a low probability. The near - term futures contracts may be under pressure, and the futures contracts may show a pattern of near - term weakness and far - term strength. [27][28] Apples - High - quality apples may continue to be strong, and the futures price may rise. The出库 situation is good, and the market is expected to be strong in the short term. [29][30] Corn - Pay attention to the port collection situation. Before the Spring Festival, the price will be in a high - level oscillation. After the Spring Festival, pay attention to the concentrated release of grain sales and the opportunity to buy on dips in the far - term contracts. [31] Red Dates - Pay close attention to the market performance during the consumption peak season. Currently, it is expected to fluctuate weakly. The supply is large, and the consumption growth is limited. [32] Hogs - Supply and demand both increase, and the spot price is difficult to rise significantly. Short positions are recommended for near - term contracts. [33] Energy and Chemical Crude Oil - The US passed a bill to avoid a government shutdown, and the API crude oil inventory increased, driving the oil price to recover. Geopolitical risks still exist, and the supply is in surplus. It can be shorted on rallies or sell call options. [35] Fuel Oil - Geopolitics and the macro - economy dominate the oil price. The supply - demand situation of fuel oil has improved marginally, and its price follows the fluctuations of crude oil. [36] Plastics - Polyolefins have a large supply pressure, and the market sentiment has turned bad. They may continue to correct, and attention should be paid to the correction risk. [37] Rubber - Pre - holiday downstream replenishment and the upcoming suspension of overseas production areas may support the price. The fundamentals have no obvious contradictions, and it is recommended to sell out - of - the - money put options on dips. [38] Synthetic Rubber - It has fallen due to negative feedback and the overall weakness of commodities. Consider long positions after the Spring Festival and pay attention to the narrowing spread with natural rubber. [39] Methanol - The real - time supply - demand situation has improved slightly, but there is still a risk of inventory accumulation. The price may have a correction risk if the geopolitical conflict eases. [40] Caustic Soda - The caustic soda production is at a high level, and the inventory is high. The futures price is expected to be short - term bearish. [41] Asphalt - It follows the fluctuations of oil prices and is stronger than oil. Pay attention to the changes in the discount of Venezuelan crude oil. [42] PVC - The previous rise was due to policy expectations and export growth, but the core supply - demand contradiction has not been improved. There is a risk of correction. [43][44] Polyester Industry Chain - The near - term fundamentals are weak, and the cost support is lacking. It is expected to continue to weaken, and positive spreads between May and September contracts of PX, PTA, or MEG can be considered. [45] Liquefied Petroleum Gas - The focus of trading in February is the US - Iran issue. The cost support may weaken, and the demand is restricted. The price is expected to turn from strong to weak and can be shorted on rallies. [46] Pulp - The spot market is weak, but there is support from the supply side and pre - holiday replenishment. It is recommended to be on the sidelines and control positions. [47] Logs - The fundamentals are oscillatory, and the spot price is stable. It is recommended to be on the sidelines before the Spring Festival and observe the factory resumption after the Spring Festival. [47] Urea - The spot market is weak, and the futures market is emotional. It is recommended to treat it with an oscillatory mindset. [48]

Group 1 - The core issue revolves around the trade dispute between the US and India, with India's Modi government facing pressure from domestic farmers, leading to a refusal to open agricultural markets to the US, which escalated into a tariff war [1] - Recent developments indicate that Trump has reduced the "reciprocal" tariff rate on Indian goods from 25% to 18%, suggesting progress in US-India tariff negotiations, although it implies Modi's significant concessions [3] - Modi's agreement to purchase over $500 billion worth of US products, including energy and defense, while committing to reduce tariffs and non-tariff barriers to zero, highlights the extent of India's concessions to the US [3] Group 2 - Modi's shift in policy has angered Russia, as India is expected to reduce oil imports from Russia in favor of Venezuelan oil, which could disrupt diplomatic and security cooperation between India and Russia [5] - The signing of the US-India trade agreement may negatively impact India's relations with the EU, particularly in defense, as it could lead to increased US weaponry in India, undermining EU interests [6] - The potential backlash from domestic farmers against the opening of Indian markets to US agricultural products could lead to significant political repercussions for Modi, including protests and challenges from opposition parties [8]