英国央行货币政策委员曼恩：全球贸易分化风险正导致跨国公司面临"意大利面碗"效应般繁杂的规则体 系。 ...

Core Insights - China remains the primary market for global companies looking to increase trade and manufacturing, with 44% of surveyed companies planning to enhance trade relations with China [1] - 40% of global companies are planning to increase product manufacturing in China over the next two years, second only to Europe [1] - 89% of global companies express confidence in achieving international business growth in the next two years, with 90% of Chinese companies sharing this optimism [1] Trade Outlook - 44% of surveyed companies identified China as their target market for increased trade, followed closely by Europe (43%) and the United States (39%) [1] - Asian companies show a higher inclination towards increasing trade with China, with 54% planning to enhance trade relations and 52% intending to boost manufacturing in China [1] Manufacturing Plans - 40% of global companies are either currently increasing or planning to increase their manufacturing presence in China within the next two years, indicating strong interest in the Chinese manufacturing sector [1] - The proportion of Chinese companies planning to expand trade with Europe, the Middle East, and South Asia is nearly 30% [2] Innovation and Growth - 84% of Chinese companies view current pressures as catalysts for innovation, prompting them to seek new opportunities, including expanding into overseas markets and increasing domestic sales [2]

美国贸易代表办公室草案显示，华盛顿正在向谈判伙伴施压，要求各国在关键领域提供最佳提案，包括 购买美国工农业产品的关税和配额方案，以及消除非关税壁垒的计划。 特朗普政府正在加速谈判进程。 据媒体6月2日获得的美国贸易代表办公室（USTR）信件草案显示，特朗普政府已要求相关国家在周三 （美东时间6月4日）前提交"最佳贸易谈判方案"，否则将面临高额惩罚性措施。 这一"最后通牒"距离其设定的90天关税豁免大限（7月8日）仅剩五周。据环球时报报道，美国总统特朗 普4月9日宣布将对大多数国家暂停实施所谓"对等关税"90天。特朗普威胁若有关国家在90天关税暂停期 无法与美达成协议，美将恢复加征关税。 紧急信函暴露谈判压力 草案信函警告贸易伙伴，即使法院对特朗普使用该法案作出不利裁决，也不应认为关税会被搁置。草案 写道： 无论美国法院对总统对等关税行动的诉讼如何，总统打算在必要时根据其他强有力的法律权 威继续实施这一关税计划。 特朗普的关税政策已让投资者经历过山车般的波动。5月美股创下自2023年11月以来最大月度涨幅，但 此前全球指数在特朗普2月至4月初的关税声明轰炸下曾大幅下跌。 华盛顿目前正与欧盟、日本、越南和印度等国 ...

Group 1 - The 2025 International Youth Exchange Conference and the 40th anniversary of international friendship cities in Zibo opened on May 28, with representatives from over 60 delegations from 28 countries [2] - The event aims to expand Zibo's international "friend circle" and build a platform for dialogue and cooperation among global youth and urban development [2][4] - Zibo has established friendly relations with 40 cities across 25 countries, including 14 international friendship cities and 26 international cooperation cities, creating a global cooperation network [5] Group 2 - The International Friendship City Cooperation 40th Anniversary Exhibition was a key event, featuring over 100 domestic and foreign enterprises engaging in one-on-one precise matchmaking [3] - Zibo's international cooperation has expanded from initial economic exchanges to include education, culture, and technology [4] - The event facilitated significant cooperation agreements, including a partnership between Zibo Feiyuan Chemical Co. and a Philippine company, expected to generate over 2 billion yuan in investment [8] Group 3 - The conference emphasized the importance of youth, calling for collaboration in areas such as artificial intelligence, new energy, and cultural exchange [6] - A new foreign-related comprehensive service platform was launched to support enterprises in international markets, facilitating 16 foreign cooperation projects with a total investment of 170 million yuan during its trial operation [8] - Zibo is transforming from an industrial city to an open "new city," leveraging its foreign service platform, friendship city resources, and industrial projects to drive high-quality development [9]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the ongoing trade tensions between the US and its global partners, particularly focusing on the imposition of tariffs and the negotiation dynamics between the US and the EU [1][3][8] - The US has threatened to impose a 50% tariff on all EU products, which prompted immediate communication between the EU Commission and the US President, indicating the US's strategic advantage in negotiations [1][3] - The EU is preparing to concede on the issue of the 10% basic "reciprocal tariff" due to the fear of the US imposing the higher 50% tariff, showcasing the pressure the US is exerting on its trade partners [3][8] Group 2 - France stands out as the only EU member opposing the 10% "reciprocal tariff," reflecting internal divisions within the EU regarding how to respond to US trade policies [3][5] - The ongoing tensions have led to a perception that the EU is increasingly aligning with US strategic interests, which has caused dissatisfaction in France and highlighted the differing positions between France and Germany [5][6] - China's previous successful countermeasures against US tariffs have inspired France's strong stance against US demands, indicating a shift in how countries perceive their negotiating power in the face of US trade aggression [8][9]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry. Core Insights - The report highlights the participation of women in international trade and the effects of trade and trade policies on women in seven Latin American countries: Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Costa Rica, Mexico, and Peru. It examines women's roles in international trade as workers, consumers, and business leaders, proposing recommendations to ensure women benefit from international trade and contribute to regional prosperity [16][19]. Summary by Sections 1. Employment of Women - Women hold fewer jobs directly and indirectly related to trade compared to men, with a 40% lower likelihood of occupying export-related jobs. This disparity is largely due to occupational segregation, with women more prevalent in sectors less involved in international trade, such as health and education [32][60]. - The report indicates that women are less likely to occupy higher-paying, more productive jobs associated with international trade, and this trend has remained stable over time [60][61]. 2. Women Business Leaders in International Trade - Only 10% of women-led businesses engage in international trade compared to 14% of men-led businesses. Women entrepreneurs face challenges such as access to financing and market knowledge, which hinder their participation in international trade [33][34]. - Women-led businesses are more likely to operate in the informal economy, which limits their export potential compared to male-led businesses [36]. 3. Women as Consumers - Lower tariffs benefit low-income households more significantly, with poorer households losing twice as much purchasing power due to price increases from tariffs compared to wealthier households. Spending habits differ slightly between male and female-headed households, but income remains the primary influence [39]. 4. Trade in Services - Women predominantly work and lead businesses in the services sector. Barriers to service trade can increase costs and reduce competitiveness for all businesses, regardless of leadership gender [37]. 5. Trade Facilitation - Women-led businesses are generally smaller and face greater challenges due to cumbersome administrative procedures at borders. However, the report notes improvements in trade facilitation in the studied countries over the past decade, with efficiency gains in customs procedures ranging from 3% to 20% since the implementation of the WTO Trade Facilitation Agreement in 2017 [38]. 6. Trade Agreements and Gender - Latin American countries have been pioneers in including gender equality provisions in trade agreements, with 40 out of 87 agreements signed by the studied countries explicitly addressing gender issues. All countries involved have committed to the Global Arrangement on Trade and Gender, aiming to promote women's access to trade opportunities [40][41]. 7. Recommendations for Action - The report suggests integrating gender considerations into trade agreements, supporting gender-sensitive policy development, and enhancing data collection disaggregated by gender to better support women's economic empowerment through international trade [41][42].

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. International Trade Court's ruling temporarily halts President Trump's comprehensive tariff policy, highlighting the tension between executive power and judicial independence [1][2][3] Group 1: Court Ruling and Legal Implications - The court's decision questions the legality of President Trump's use of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) to impose tariffs, stating that it requires specific reasons to address specific issues [3][5] - The ruling indicates that the IEEPA does not authorize the president to issue global tariffs or retaliatory tariffs, and granting unlimited tariff power to the president violates the Constitution [3][4] - The court's order permanently prohibits the enforcement of the related tariff executive orders, declaring them illegal for all parties involved [3][6] Group 2: Market Reactions and Economic Impact - Following the ruling, global financial markets reacted positively, with U.S. stock indices rising and the dollar strengthening, reflecting optimism about a potential easing of trade tensions [2][7] - However, experts warn that ongoing litigation regarding tariff policies could lead to significant disruptions in U.S. export trade and domestic market supply, potentially increasing inflationary pressures [7][8] - The uncertainty surrounding tariff policies may disrupt international trade systems and lead to a restructuring of global supply chains, negatively impacting world economic growth [7][9] Group 3: Future Developments and Political Dynamics - The Trump administration has filed an appeal against the ruling, indicating a potential for further legal battles and the possibility of seeking a stay on the enforcement of the ruling [6][9] - Analysts suggest that the appeal process may introduce additional complexities, with the potential for the case to reach the Supreme Court, where outcomes remain uncertain due to the conservative majority [9][10] - The ruling complicates ongoing trade negotiations, as trade partners may hesitate to make concessions until there is more clarity from the U.S. judicial system regarding tariff disputes [10]

5月29日，商务部新闻发言人何咏前就"近期中美双方经贸团队是否又进行了磋商"的相关问题回应表示， 中美日内瓦经贸会谈以来，双方利用多双边场合，在多个层级就经贸领域各自关切保持沟通。近期中方围 绕美方在半导体领域滥用出口管制措施等做法，多次与美方进行交涉。中方再次敦促美方立即纠正错误做 法，停止对华歧视性限制措施，共同维护日内瓦高层会谈共识。 来源：商务部 转载与合作可联系证券时报小助理，微信ID：SecuritiesTimes END 点击关键字可查看 潜望系列深度报道丨 股事会专栏 丨 投资小红书 丨 e公司调查 丨 时报会客厅 丨 十大明星私募访谈 丨 两大板块，涨停潮！ 丨 关税突发！A股高开，A50狂拉！ 丨 突发！特朗普全球关税被裁定越 权！美股期指拉升 丨 深夜，暴涨超200%！ 丨 官方通报！"英之园"已被拆除！违建豪宅估价过亿 丨 退市！又一A股公司摘牌，涉近3万股东 丨 比亚迪，突然刷屏！发生了什么？ 丨 沙特等4国，免 签！ 丨 涨停潮！热门赛道大爆发！ 丨 昨夜，大涨！道指猛拉超700点 丨 停牌！两家A股公司，控 制权拟变更 丨 拼多多，盘前大跌！陈磊最新发声！ 责编：叶舒筠 校对： ...

Core Viewpoint - The trade volume between ASEAN, China, and the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) is on the rise, with a projected total trade volume of $943.9 billion in 2024, approximately double that of ASEAN's trade with the United States, which stands at $472.7 billion [1][3]. Group 1: Trade Dynamics - ASEAN has invited China to participate in its economic summit with the GCC, marking a significant step in enhancing regional trade and economic cooperation [1][2]. - The trade volume between ASEAN and the GCC has increased significantly, with a total increase of $4.142 billion since the first term of the Trump administration, surpassing the $2.375 billion increase in trade with the United States [3]. - The combined GDP of ASEAN, GCC, and China accounts for over 20% of the global total, with a population of approximately 2.15 billion, indicating a substantial market potential [3]. Group 2: Geopolitical Context - The protectionist policies of the Trump administration have led to a shift in trade dynamics, prompting ASEAN to seek alternative markets outside the U.S., particularly focusing on China and the GCC [2][3]. - The ASEAN chair, Malaysia's Prime Minister Anwar, emphasized the historical and enduring connections among the three regions, highlighting the potential for a stronger and wealthier future through collaboration [2]. - Japan's influence in Southeast Asia may decline as ASEAN strengthens ties with China and the GCC, with trade figures showing a growing disparity between Japan and China in the region [5].

上周五，特朗普声称对欧洲的谈判策略感到不满。据央视新闻，当地时间5月23日，特朗普在社交媒体上表示，建议自6月1日起对欧盟征收50%的关 税。 然而，周日，在与欧盟委员会主席乌苏拉·冯德莱恩通话后，新华社报道称，特朗普同意将对欧盟征收50%关税的起征时间从6月1日延至7月9日。 对此，诺贝尔经济学奖得主保罗·克鲁格曼27日通过一篇"公开信"向欧洲领导人发出严厉警告，敦促他们停止对美国前总统唐纳德·特朗普的"哄骗"策 略，并呼吁欧洲像一个真正的"大国"一样行事。 他指出，欧洲在经济上并非弱者，其对美出口政策已然有利，且贸易顺差存在会计因素。欧洲需要克服"习得性无助"。 "你比你想象的要强大。行动起来。" 克鲁格曼的劝告：勿向特朗普妥协 冯德莱恩25日稍早前在社交媒体X上发文说，她与特朗普有一次"好的通话"，但"要达成好的协议，我们需要时间，直至7月9日"。冯德莱恩表示，欧盟 准备好"迅速且果断地"推进与美方的谈判。 克鲁格曼表示，"我不知道冯德莱恩说了什么"，但他强调，"一个可能发生或可能不发生、威胁巨大的关税，在6周内会大大增加破坏性的不确定性。" 他随即向欧盟委员会和整个欧盟提出了建议： "不要试图安抚特朗 ...