Core Insights - The holiday economy shows a steady increase, with a daily average of 154 million people traveling across regions during the first five days of the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival, representing a year-on-year increase of 5.4% [1] - There is a notable increase in outbound and overseas travel flights, exceeding 12% [1] - Consumer spending is driven by two main themes: "cost-performance ratio" and "emotional value" [1] Travel and Tourism - Strong demand for homecoming and tourism travel is observed [1] - Different provinces and cities show growth in tourist reception and tourism revenue, although the growth rates vary significantly [1] - Movie consumption remains subdued, influenced by film quality, with ticket prices continuing to decline [1] Consumer Goods - The automotive sector performs well due to the impending expiration of subsidies and the launch of new models [1] - Home appliance consumption is affected by high base disturbances, but smart and green categories show strong performance [1] Real Estate and Land Market - Real estate sales see a holiday decline, with year-on-year variations due to base disturbances [1] - The land market remains relatively cold [1] Economic Indicators - Infrastructure investment is ramping up, with the issuance of special bonds at the fastest pace in recent years [1] - Post-holiday restocking drives accelerated port operations [1] - Production slows down before the holiday, while consumer goods prices show significant increases, particularly in food and beverages [1] - Industrial product prices experience a slight decline [1] - Liquidity remains ample, with the US dollar index returning above 98 [1]

Core Insights - The 2025 National Day box office reached 1.835 billion yuan, with a total of 50.07 million viewers, marking a return to levels seen a decade ago, despite being the lowest in five years [2] - Domestic films accounted for 98.93% of the total box office, indicating a strong preference for local content among viewers [2] - The lack of blockbuster films during the holiday period contributed to the disappointing box office performance, with no films surpassing 500 million yuan [3][4] Box Office Performance - The top five films during the National Day period were "The Volunteer Army: Blood and Peace" (450 million yuan), "731" (344 million yuan), "Assassination Novelist 2" (295 million yuan), "Life of Langlang" (219 million yuan), and "Deafening" (175 million yuan) [3] - "The Volunteer Army: Blood and Peace" underperformed compared to its predecessors, which grossed 868 million yuan and 1.206 billion yuan respectively [3] - The average ticket price for the National Day period was 36.6 yuan, the lowest in five years, but price reductions did not significantly increase viewer numbers [5] Audience Engagement and Future Outlook - The film industry faces challenges such as a lack of innovative content and a higher threshold for audience engagement, necessitating a focus on audience awareness during the creative phase [5] - Upcoming months are expected to feature several anticipated sequels and imports, including "Zootopia 2" and "Avatar: Fire and Ash," which may attract viewers back to theaters [6][7] - The total box office for 2025 has already surpassed 42.502 billion yuan, indicating a recovery in the film market despite the underwhelming National Day performance [6]

Group 1: Report Summary - The report focuses on the key events during the National Day holiday and the outlook for the bond market. It points out that consumption showed a characteristic of "increasing quantity but decreasing price" during the holiday, with tourism and travel recovering steadily. However, the prices of air tickets and hotels declined year-on-year, and the performance of urban travel, box office, and real estate was weak. The sustainability of consumer recovery and the strength of corporate profit repair remain to be seen. The bond market is likely to have a repair opportunity in the fourth quarter as the fundamentals gradually gain more pricing power [2][6]. Group 2: Holiday Consumption and Travel - **Travel Volume Increase**: From October 1 to 8, the daily average cross - regional population flow reached 304 million person - times, a 6.2% year - on - year increase compared to the 7 - day average of the 2024 National Day holiday, hitting a record high. The international passenger flow from September 30 to October 6 increased by 15.3% year - on - year [5][6]. - **Price Decline**: As of October 7, the 7 - day moving average of domestic aviation fuel - included ticket prices decreased by 3.8% year - on - year, and business route ticket prices generally declined. The RevPAR of domestic hotels from September 22 to 28 decreased by 4% year - on - year, indicating that profitability has not significantly recovered. The box office revenue and average ticket price from October 1 to 7 decreased by 18% and 10% respectively [6]. Group 3: Global Capital Market Performance - **Stock Market**: During the National Day holiday (October 1 - 7), major developed countries' and Hong Kong stock indices strengthened. The Nikkei 225 led the gains, with the Nasdaq and Hang Seng Tech rising by 0.6% and 1.3% respectively. The healthcare and information technology sectors in both US and Hong Kong markets rose significantly [6]. - **Commodities**: Precious metals and non - ferrous metals performed well. London gold and silver rose by 4.0% and 4.9% respectively, and LME copper, zinc, and aluminum rose by 3.5%, 2.5%, and 1.5% respectively [6]. - **Bond Yields**: Most major countries' long - term bond yields rose, while the 10Y US Treasury yield dropped 2BP to 4.14%, mainly due to the expected weakening of employment data and the "shutdown" of the US government [6]. - **Exchange Rates**: The US dollar index rose by 0.8%, the Japanese yen depreciated by 2.7% against the US dollar, and the offshore RMB against the US dollar depreciated slightly by 0.2% [6]. Group 4: Market Transaction Themes - **Interest Rate Cut Expectations**: The unexpected decline in ADP employment data led to increased expectations of an interest rate cut, and concerns about debt sustainability due to the US government "shutdown" caused gold prices to rise and the US stock market to fluctuate. However, it is expected that the debt ceiling issue will be resolved and will not cause continuous market disturbances [6]. - **Japanese Market Outlook**: With the likely victory of Kōichi Tashiro in the Japanese prime ministerial election, the expectation of a Japanese yen interest rate hike has been postponed. The implementation of active fiscal and monetary policies may lead to a market pattern of a strong Japanese stock market, a weak yen, and weak Japanese bonds [6]. Group 5: Bond Market Outlook - As the fundamentals gradually gain more pricing power in the bond market in the fourth quarter, the bond market is likely to have a repair opportunity. However, the sustainability of consumer recovery and the strength of corporate profit repair need further observation as prices have not fully stabilized [2][6].

Core Insights - The National Day box office in 2025 has significantly underperformed, with total earnings of 1.835 billion yuan over eight days, which is comparable to 2015's earnings of 1.862 billion yuan over seven days, leading to media reports of a "box office collapse" and a return to ten years ago [1][3][19] Box Office Performance - Five films surpassed the 100 million yuan mark, with an average ticket price of 35.8 yuan and over 50 million attendees [1][21] - The box office performance reflects a notable decline in audience engagement compared to previous years, with attendance dropping from over 100 million in 2019 to just over 50 million in 2025 [17][19] Audience Behavior - Audience attention and spending habits have shifted, with more focus on travel and dining rather than cinema, indicating that movies are no longer the central narrative during holidays [5][19] - Social media has contributed to this shift, as platforms are filled with travel and food content rather than film discussions, leading to a lack of collective engagement around movies [19][20] Film Quality and Themes - Despite significant promotional efforts, films like "The Volunteer Army: Blood and Peace" and "Assassination Novelist 2" failed to generate substantial audience interest or discussion [3][5] - The emotional impact of patriotic films has diminished due to repetitive themes, leading to a decline in audience emotional tolerance for such narratives [8][10] Industrial Challenges - The industrialization of filmmaking has led to a structural emptiness in content, as seen in "Assassination Novelist 2," which, despite high production quality, lacked depth in storytelling and character motivation [11][13] - The focus on visual spectacle over emotional storytelling has alienated audiences, who now seek more genuine narratives rather than mere technical achievements [16][14] Future Outlook - The future of patriotic narratives in cinema may require a shift in storytelling approaches to reignite audience interest, as evidenced by the success of films that adopt more personal perspectives [10][8] - The overall decline in box office performance during the National Day holiday signals a need for the film industry to adapt to changing audience preferences and emotional needs [20][19]

Core Insights - The National Film Administration reported a 13% decline in box office revenue for the 2025 National Day holiday period, totaling 1.835 billion yuan, marking the second-lowest performance in five years [1][2] - The overall attendance for this year's holiday period was 50.079 million, down 4% year-on-year, with an average ticket price dropping to a five-year low of 36.6 yuan [2][5] - No films surpassed 500 million yuan in box office revenue during this holiday, a first in five years [3] Box Office Performance - The top five films during the holiday were: "The Volunteer Army: Blood and Peace" (450 million yuan), "731" (345 million yuan), "The Assassination of Novelists 2" (295 million yuan), "Life of the Waves" (219 million yuan), and "Deafening" (175 million yuan) [2] - The domestic film share reached 98.93% during the holiday [2] Market Trends - The film market is experiencing a passive phase due to a lack of blockbuster films [4] - First-tier cities accounted for only 13.4% of box office revenue, a historical low, while third and fourth-tier cities saw an increase to nearly 44% [6][7] - The overall film market faced significant pressure, with major companies like China Film reporting a 19.13% revenue decline to 1.717 billion yuan and a net loss of 110 million yuan [8] Industry Challenges - The second quarter of 2025 saw a 34.73% year-on-year decline in national box office revenue, with significant drops during the Qingming and May Day holidays [9] - Animation films, such as "The First Part of the Stars of the Three Kingdoms," also faced losses, with box office revenue of only 74.71 million yuan [10] - The industry is becoming increasingly cautious with investments, as evidenced by the losses reported by companies like Huanyi Media [12] Alternative Entertainment Growth - Other entertainment sectors are thriving, with domestic travel increasing by 1.23 million people and total spending rising by 108.19 billion yuan during the holiday [14] - The number of performances in third to fifth-tier cities grew by 34.1%, and online viewing times increased by 23%, particularly in anime [14] Industry Adaptation - Major film companies are redefining their strategies, such as Wanda Film collaborating with gaming IPs to create new cinema experiences [16] - The industry is exploring new distribution models and integrating other forms of entertainment into cinemas [17] - Financing for film projects is becoming more challenging, prompting government support for investment [18] Market Transformation - The current situation indicates a pressing need for the film industry to accelerate its transformation [19]

Core Insights - The National Film Administration reported a 13% year-on-year decline in box office revenue for the 2025 National Day holiday period, totaling 1.835 billion yuan, marking the second-lowest performance in five years [1] - The overall contraction in this year's holiday box office is comprehensive, with total audience attendance dropping by 4% to 50.079 million and average attendance per screening decreasing by 15% [1] - Domestic films accounted for 98.93% of the box office during this period, with the top five films grossing below 500 million yuan for the first time in five years [1] Box Office Performance - The box office for the National Day holiday in 2025 was 1.835 billion yuan, down 2.7 billion yuan from the previous year [1] - The top five films were: "The Volunteer Army: Blood and Peace" (450 million yuan), "731" (345 million yuan), "Assassination Novelist 2" (295 million yuan), "Life of the Lost" (219 million yuan), and "Deafening" (175 million yuan) [1] - The average ticket price dropped to a five-year low of 36.6 yuan, but this did not significantly boost attendance [4] Market Trends - The enthusiasm for movie-going in first-tier cities has continued to decline, with their box office share dropping to a historical low of 13.4%, while the share from third and fourth-tier cities has increased to nearly 44% [6] - Major film companies are facing operational pressures, with "The Volunteer Army: Blood and Peace" struggling to recoup its high investment, accumulating only 488 million yuan by October 9 [6] - The overall film market saw a 34.73% year-on-year decline in box office revenue in the second quarter of this year [6] Industry Challenges - The animation film "The First Part of the Stars of the Three Kingdoms," produced by Light Media, grossed only 74.71 million yuan during the holiday, indicating financial strain [7] - The film "Sauce Garden Case" featuring major stars grossed only 375 million yuan, leading to significant losses for its production company, Huanyi Media [8] - Investment in film projects is becoming increasingly cautious, with a noted decrease in the influence of major directors [8] Alternative Entertainment Growth - During the same holiday period, domestic tourism saw 888 million trips, an increase of 123 million from the previous year, with total spending reaching 809 billion yuan [9] - Cultural and entertainment activities in lower-tier cities have seen a 34.1% increase in performance events, while online viewing time has risen by 23%, particularly in animation [9] Industry Adaptation - Major film companies are redefining their strategies, with Wanda Film collaborating with gaming IP to create new cinema experiences, attracting over one million players during the holiday [10] - The film industry is exploring new distribution models and integrating other forms of entertainment into cinemas [10] - Financing for film projects is becoming more challenging, prompting industry leaders to seek support from regulatory bodies [11]

Core Insights - The recent National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival holiday saw a significant boost in domestic tourism and consumption, with 888 million domestic trips taken and total spending reaching 809 billion yuan, marking an increase of 1.23 billion trips and 108.2 billion yuan compared to the previous year [1][2] - The strong performance in the consumption market reflects robust domestic demand and enhanced market confidence, supported by a series of government policies aimed at stimulating consumption [1][7] Tourism and Travel - The total cross-regional movement of people during the holiday reached 2.432 billion, a historical high, with an average of 304 million daily trips, representing a 6.2% increase year-on-year [2] - The travel demand was bolstered by a well-developed transportation network, facilitating high levels of travel and logistics during the holiday [2] Retail and Consumption - Key retail and catering enterprises reported a 2.7% year-on-year increase in sales during the holiday, with pedestrian traffic and sales in monitored shopping districts rising by 8.8% and 6.0% respectively [2] - Notable growth was observed in green organic food sales (27.9%), smart home products (14.3%), and domestic fashion brands (14.1%) [2] Cultural and Entertainment Activities - The holiday featured over 29,000 cultural and tourism events, with significant participation in traditional cultural experiences and performances [3] - The film industry thrived, with total box office revenue reaching 1.835 billion yuan and over 50 million viewers, indicating a strong recovery in the cinema sector [3] Rural and Local Tourism - There was a notable increase in bookings for rural homestays, with a growth rate exceeding 40%, as travelers sought personalized experiences away from popular tourist spots [4] Inbound and Outbound Tourism - Inbound tourism is on the rise, with predictions of over 2 million daily entries and exits at national ports during the holiday, supported by policies like visa exemptions and tax refunds [5] - Outbound travel also saw significant growth, with a near doubling of long-haul group tours compared to the previous year [6] Government Initiatives and Economic Support - Various local governments implemented promotional activities to stimulate consumption, including issuing consumption vouchers and hosting numerous events [7] - The government allocated 690 billion yuan for consumption upgrades, with substantial applications for vehicle trade-in subsidies and household appliance purchases [7][8] Future Outlook - The Ministry of Finance and the Ministry of Commerce are launching pilot programs in selected cities to explore new consumption models and enhance product supply [8] - Economic analysts suggest that while consumption recovery faces challenges, addressing systemic barriers and enhancing public services could stimulate service consumption growth [8]

Group 1: Travel and Tourism - During the 2025 National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival holiday, a total of 2.433 billion people traveled across regions, averaging 304 million people per day, marking a 6.3% year-on-year increase compared to 2024, reaching a historical high [3] - Domestic travel reached 888 million trips over the 8-day holiday, an increase of 123 million trips compared to the 7-day holiday in 2024 [11] - The total expenditure for domestic travel was 809 billion yuan, which is an increase of 108.2 billion yuan compared to the previous year [11] - Major cities like Beijing, Tianjin, and Shanghai saw significant tourist inflows, with Beijing receiving 25.094 million visitors and Shanghai 25.485 million, reflecting year-on-year growth of 3.6% and 19.74% respectively [14] Group 2: Consumer Market - The average daily sales revenue in consumer-related industries during the holiday increased by 4.5% year-on-year, with goods and services consumption growing by 3.9% and 7.6% respectively [25] - Key retail and catering enterprises reported a 2.7% year-on-year increase in sales from October 1 to 7, with foot traffic and sales in monitored pedestrian streets growing by 8.8% and 6.0% respectively [29] Group 3: Entertainment and Cultural Activities - The box office revenue for films during the National Day holiday reached 1.835 billion yuan, with 50.07 million admissions, highlighting the popularity of films such as "The Volunteer Army: Blood and Peace" [33] - The search interest for "night tours" surged over 200% on travel platforms, indicating a growing trend in nighttime cultural activities [22]

Core Viewpoint - The report from Lyon indicates a mixed trend in consumer spending during the recent holiday period, with strong travel demand but varying performance across sectors [1] Group 1: Travel and Consumer Trends - Overall travel demand showed a year-on-year increase of 6.9% in total cross-regional travel volume [1] - The luxury goods sector is experiencing continuous improvement, benefiting from easier comparative bases, targeted customer development, and increased promotional activities in shopping malls [1] Group 2: Sector Performance - The film box office and sportswear sectors are noted to be underperforming [1] - Sales in the gold and jewelry sector benefited from rising gold prices, although overall sales volume remains weak [1] Group 3: Company Insights - Channel checks reveal that Lao Pu Gold (06181) continues to perform strongly, with reduced sales pressure due to less aggressive inventory promotion by brands [1] - Preferred stocks identified by Lyon include LVMH, Richemont, Yingtong Holdings (06883), and Anta Sports (02020) [1]

Group 1: Economic Activity and Consumer Trends - The National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival holiday in China saw a surge in travel, tourism, and consumption, showcasing the vitality and resilience of the Chinese economy [1] - The integration of culture and experience in tourism activities became a highlight, with immersive experiences allowing tourists to actively explore traditional culture [3] - The number of inbound foreign tourists significantly increased compared to the same period last year, with popular destinations including Leshan Giant Buddha, Zhangjiajie, Xi'an, and Xishuangbanna [5] Group 2: Tourism and Cultural Integration - The combination of cultural experiences and modern consumption spaces has expanded consumer satisfaction, with holiday economic activities reaching broader areas [3] - Policies such as visa facilitation, tax refunds, and payment optimizations have effectively promoted the growth of inbound tourism [5] - The film market during the holiday performed well, with diverse genres attracting large audiences and turning filming locations into tourist hotspots [7] Group 3: Sports and Events Impact - Major sports events during the holiday, such as the 2025 China Open Tennis and the World Table Tennis Professional League, attracted many spectators and boosted the hotel, dining, and retail sectors [9] - The trend of "traveling with events" has emerged, supported by government policies aimed at promoting sports consumption and event-driven economic growth [9]