Report Information - Report Type: Fixed Income Report - Release Date: August 11, 2025 - Analysts: Liang Weichao, Cui Chao [2] Investment Rating - The provided content does not mention the industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - High - frequency economic data shows that the production end has differentiated heat, with the steel industry chain warming up, while asphalt and tire operating rates declining. The transaction area of commercial housing is rising slightly, and prices are showing a differentiated trend with falling crude oil prices and rising prices of coking coal, non - ferrous metals, rebar, and agricultural products. The domestic SCFI and CCFI shipping indices are continuously falling, while the BDI is slightly rising. Short - term focus should be on the implementation of new round of growth - stabilizing stimulus policies, the recovery of the real estate market, and the impact of international geopolitical changes [2][33] Summary by Directory 1. Production - Steel Industry Chain: The utilization rate of coke oven capacity increased by 0.27 pct, the blast furnace operating rate increased by 0.29 pct, and rebar production increased by 10.12 tons in the week of August 8. The inventory of rebar also increased by 6.05 tons [2][9] - Petroleum Asphalt: The operating rate decreased by 1.4 pct in the week of August 6 [9] - Chemical Industry: The PX operating rate remained flat compared with the previous week, while the PTA operating rate increased by 2.0 pct on August 7 [9] - Automobile Tires: The operating rate of all - steel tires decreased by 0.08 pct, and that of semi - steel tires decreased by 0.1 pct in the week of August 7 [10] 2. Demand - Real Estate: In the week of August 3, the transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium - sized cities increased by 21.81 square meters, the inventory - to - sales ratio of commercial housing in 10 large cities decreased by 14.75, the land supply area in 100 large and medium - sized cities increased by 127.18 square meters, and the transaction premium rate of residential land decreased by 6.33% [14] - Movie Box Office: In the week of August 3, the total national movie box office revenue increased by 562 million yuan compared with the previous week [14] - Automobile: In the week of July 31, the average daily retail sales of automobile manufacturers increased by 31,000 vehicles, and the average daily wholesale sales increased by 94,000 vehicles [18] - Shipping Index: In the week of August 8, the SCFI decreased by 3.94%, the CCFI decreased by 2.56%, and the BDI increased by 1.64% [3][21] 3. Prices - Energy: The price of Brent crude oil decreased by 4.65% to $66.43 per barrel in the week of August 7. The futures price of coking coal increased by 9.37% to 1,219.5 yuan per ton in the week of August 8 [23] - Metals: The futures prices of LME copper, aluminum, and zinc increased by 1.40%, 1.69%, and 3.83% respectively, and the domestic rebar futures price increased by 0.06% on August 8 [24] - Agricultural Products: The overall price of agricultural products rebounded, with the 200 - index of agricultural product wholesale prices rising by 0.75%. The prices of pork, eggs, vegetables, and fruits changed by - 0.92%, - 2.72%, + 4.74%, and - 0.71% respectively compared with the previous week on August 8 [25][27] 4. Logistics - Subway Passenger Volume: The seven - day moving average of subway passenger volume in Beijing and Shanghai increased by 281,600 and 672,900 person - times respectively in the week of August 7 [29] - Flight Volume: The seven - day moving average of domestic (excluding Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwan) flight volume decreased by 2.29 flights, that of domestic (Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwan) increased by 7.29 flights, and that of international flights increased by 11.86 flights in the week of August 7 [30] - Urban Traffic: The seven - day moving average of the peak congestion index in first - tier cities decreased by 0.01 to 1.66 on August 8 [30] 5. Summary - The steel industry chain is warming up, and the price of crude oil is falling. Short - term focus should be on the implementation of new round of growth - stabilizing stimulus policies, the recovery of the real estate market, and the impact of international geopolitical changes [33]

Industrial Sector - China's industrial production remains stable, with a recovery in steel and construction material output, showing a week-on-week increase of 3.7%[1] - Daily average pig iron output is higher than the same period last year, indicating a positive trend in steel production[3] - Cement clinker capacity utilization rate has improved, reflecting a rebound in the cement industry[5] Real Estate - New home sales in 30 major cities decreased by 15.9% year-on-year as of August 8, but the decline rate improved by 2.2 percentage points compared to the previous week[1] - The second-hand housing listing price index fell by 0.27% week-on-week as of July 28, indicating a slight downward trend in property prices[20] Domestic Demand - Movie box office revenue continues to perform strongly, with a daily average of CNY 24.143 million, a year-on-year increase of 98.7%[1] - Retail sales of major home appliances grew by 10.5% year-on-year as of August 1, showing robust consumer demand[25] - The number of domestic flights increased by 8.8% year-on-year, reflecting a recovery in travel activity[26] External Demand - Port cargo throughput increased by 6.8% year-on-year as of August 3, indicating a positive trend in external trade[30] - The global manufacturing PMI index was at 49.7% in July, down 0.7 percentage points from June, suggesting a slight contraction in manufacturing activity[1] Price Trends - Black raw material futures prices rebounded, with coking coal futures up by 12.3% and rebar futures up by 0.3%[1] - The South China industrial product index fell by 1.0%, while the black raw material index rose by 2.7%[1]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the report industry investment rating is provided in the given content. Core Viewpoints - The current Guosheng fundamental high - frequency index is 126.9 points, with a year - on - year increase of 5.3 points, and the year - on - year growth rate remains unchanged. The long - short signal of interest - rate bonds remains unchanged, with a signal factor of 4.6% [1][9]. - In terms of production, the industrial production high - frequency index is 126.2, with a year - on - year increase of 5.0 points, and the year - on - year growth rate remains unchanged [1][9]. - In terms of total demand, the real - estate sales high - frequency index shows a year - on - year decline of 6.4 points, with the decline rate remaining unchanged; the infrastructure investment high - frequency index has a year - on - year increase of 4.5 points, and the year - on - year growth rate expands; the export high - frequency index has a year - on - year increase of 3.4 points, and the year - on - year growth rate narrows; the consumption high - frequency index has a year - on - year increase of 2.6 points, and the year - on - year growth rate expands [1][9]. - In terms of prices, the CPI monthly - on - monthly forecast is 0.1%, and the PPI monthly - on - monthly forecast is 0.2%, both remaining unchanged from the previous values [1][9]. - The inventory high - frequency index has a year - on - year increase of 9.3 points, and the year - on - year growth rate narrows; the transportation high - frequency index has a year - on - year increase of 9.0 points, and the year - on - year growth rate expands; the financing high - frequency index has a year - on - year increase of 29.7 points, and the year - on - year growth rate expands [2][10]. Summary by Directory 1. Total Index: Fundamental High - Frequency Index Remains Stable - The current Guosheng fundamental high - frequency index is 126.9 points (previous value: 126.8 points), with a year - on - year increase of 5.3 points (previous value: 5.3 points), and the year - on - year growth rate remains unchanged. The long - short signal of interest - rate bonds remains unchanged, with a signal factor of 4.6% (previous value: 4.6%) [1][9]. 2. Production: Electric Arc Furnace Operating Rate Rebounds - The electric arc furnace operating rate is 62.8%, up from the previous value of 62.2%; the polyester operating rate is 86.8%, down from the previous value of 86.9%; the semi - tire operating rate is 74.5%, down from the previous value of 75.9%; the full - tire operating rate is 61.1%, down from the previous value of 65.0%; the PTA operating rate is 79.7%, down from the previous value of 80.8%; the PX operating rate is 82.4%, the same as the previous value; the coal dispatch at Qinhuangdao Port is 47.5 tons, down from the previous value of 49.4 tons [11][16]. 3. Real - Estate Sales: Property Transactions Continue to Rebound - The transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium - sized cities is 24.4 square meters, up from the previous value of 21.0 square meters; the premium rate of land transactions in 100 large and medium - sized cities is 9.0%, up from the previous value of 7.8% [28]. 4. Infrastructure Investment: Asphalt Operating Rate Rebounds - The operating rate of asphalt plants is 33.1%, up from the previous value of 28.8% [38]. 5. Exports: Export Container Freight Rate Index Continues to Decline - The CCFI index is 1232 points, down from the previous value of 1261 points; the RJ/CRB index is 301.9 points, down from the previous value of 303.8 points [45]. 6. Consumption: Passenger Car Manufacturers' Retail and Wholesale Sales Continue to Rebound - Passenger car manufacturers' retail sales are 66,611 units, up from the previous value of 58,207 units; wholesale sales are 77,867 units, up from the previous value of 57,826 units; the average daily box office is 23,068 yuan, up from the previous value of 14,066 yuan [59]. 7. CPI: Wholesale Prices of Pork and White - Feathered Chicken Decline Slightly - The average wholesale price of pork is 20.5 yuan/kg, down from the previous value of 20.7 yuan/kg; the average wholesale price of 28 key - monitored vegetables is 4.4 yuan/kg, the same as the previous value; the average wholesale price of 7 key - monitored fruits is 7.1 yuan/kg, the same as the previous value; the average wholesale price of white - feathered chicken is 17.2 yuan/kg, down from the previous value of 17.4 yuan/kg [65]. 8. PPI: Steam Coal Price Continues to Rise - The closing price of steam coal (produced in Shanxi) at Qinhuangdao Port is 658 yuan/ton, up from the previous value of 649 yuan/ton; the futures settlement price of Brent crude oil is 72 US dollars/barrel, up from the previous value of 69 US dollars/barrel; the spot settlement price of LME copper is 9672 US dollars/ton, down from the previous value of 9821 US dollars/ton; the spot settlement price of LME aluminum is 2596 US dollars/ton, down from the previous value of 2647 US dollars/ton [68]. 9. Transportation: Passenger Volume Rebounds - The passenger volume of the subway in first - tier cities is 3902 person - times, up from the previous value of 3900 person - times; the highway logistics freight rate index is 1050 points, the same as the previous value; the number of domestic flights is 14,562, up from the previous value of 14,428 [82]. 10. Inventory: Soda Ash Inventory Continues to Decline - The electrolytic aluminum inventory is 18.1 tons, up from the previous value of 15.5 tons; the soda ash inventory is 179.0 tons, down from the previous value of 187.4 tons [90]. 11. Financing: Local Government Bond and Credit Bond Financing Declines - The net financing of local government bonds is 2425 billion yuan, down from the previous value of 2929 billion yuan; the net financing of credit bonds is 134 billion yuan, down from the previous value of 549 billion yuan; the 6M state - owned stock bill transfer discount rate is 0.6%, down from the previous value of 0.74%; the average value of the bill rate - certificate of deposit rate is - 1.1%, down from the previous value of - 0.91% [100].

Production Insights - As of the fourth week of July, the national blast furnace operating rate was 83.48%, stable compared to the previous period and above last year's average[11] - The rebar operating rate increased to 43.95%, up by 2.38 percentage points from the previous period, also above last year's average[11] - The cement mill operating rate recorded 36.95%, showing a slight decline compared to the previous period[3] Inventory and Capacity Utilization - As of the fourth week of July, rebar inventory decreased by 4.29% compared to the previous period, indicating a reduction in stock levels[27] - The capacity utilization rate for electric furnaces was 53.48%, up by 2.51 percentage points from the previous month, slightly above last year's average[46] - Cement clinker capacity utilization was 58.10%, down by 0.45 percentage points from the previous month, below last year's average[46] Demand Trends - In July, the sales area of commercial housing in 30 cities decreased by 27.43% month-on-month and 11.26% year-on-year[4] - The average daily sales of passenger cars were 53,006.50 units, reflecting a month-on-month decline of 21.88%[4] - The volume of postal express collection was 3.704 billion pieces, down by 5.29% month-on-month but up by 15.14% year-on-year[4] Price Movements - The average price of cement was 338.17 yuan/ton, down by 0.33% month-on-month, below last year's average[67] - The price of rebar increased by 4.14% month-on-month to 3,310.40 yuan/ton, still below last year's average[68] - The price of asphalt rose by 0.40% month-on-month to 3,823.00 yuan/ton, above last year's average[69]

Group 1: Industrial Production - Industrial production in China shows divergence, with raw material production demonstrating relative resilience[1] - Daily pig iron output is higher than the same period last year, while steel and construction material production and apparent demand have marginally declined[1] - The operating rates for petroleum asphalt and some chemical products have recovered, while cement clinker capacity utilization remains stable compared to last week[1] Group 2: Real Estate - New home sales in 30 major cities decreased by 18.4% year-on-year as of August 1, 2025, with a 19.3% decline in July compared to the previous month[1] - The second-hand housing listing price index decreased by 0.48% month-on-month as of July 21, 2025[1] Group 3: Domestic Demand - National retail sales of passenger cars from July 1-27, 2025, reached 1.445 million units, a 9% increase year-on-year, while the total market for July is estimated at around 1.85 million units, up 7.6% year-on-year[1] - Major home appliance retail sales increased by 18.5% year-on-year as of July 25, 2025[1] - Daily movie box office revenue averaged 230 million yuan, a 27.9% increase year-on-year, with a government subsidy program in Beijing to encourage attendance[1] Group 4: External Demand - Port cargo throughput increased by 10.9% year-on-year as of July 27, 2025, with container throughput up by 5.6%[1] - South Korea's export value grew by 5.9% year-on-year in July, an increase of 1.6 percentage points from June[1] Group 5: Price Trends - The South China industrial product index fell by 3.8%, with the black raw materials index down by 5.6%[1] - Rebar futures prices dropped by 4.6%, while spot prices decreased by 2.3%; coking coal futures fell by 13.2%, but spot prices rose by 1.2%[1]

Economic Activity - July export growth showed resilience with a year-on-year increase, while construction activity remained weak due to adverse weather conditions and policy adjustments[2] - Domestic passenger car sales fell significantly by 40.7% year-on-year during July 21-27, indicating a potential impact from high base effects[3] - The manufacturing PMI decreased from 49.7% in June to 49.3% in July, suggesting a contraction in manufacturing activity[8] Commodity Prices - Brent crude oil prices rose by 1.8% week-on-week to $69.7 per barrel, while COMEX gold prices increased by 2.3% to $3,360 per ounce[5] - Domestic copper and rebar prices fell by 1.3% and 3.1% respectively, indicating a general retreat in commodity prices[5] Real Estate Market - New home transaction area in 44 cities saw a year-on-year decline of 23.2%, worsening from a previous drop of 19.6%[60] - In first-tier cities, new home transaction areas decreased by 21.6% year-on-year, with significant declines in major cities like Beijing and Shanghai[60] - The average land transaction price in 100 cities increased by 91.8% week-on-week and 40.9% year-on-year, reflecting a divergence in market dynamics[60] Financial Market - Interbank liquidity tightened, with the RMB/USD exchange rate decreasing by 0.59% week-on-week[6] - The net issuance of government bonds rose to 672.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 66.8%[6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - High - frequency economic data shows production end heat differentiation, with the steel industry chain recovering while asphalt, PX, and tire operating rates decreasing. The real - estate market is marginally improving, with increases in both commercial housing and land transaction areas. Price trends are also differentiated, with crude oil falling, coking coal rising significantly by 32.6%, rebar prices increasing, and non - ferrous metals remaining stable. Among agricultural products, pork, eggs, and vegetables are rising, with eggs having a large increase. Shipping index trends continue to diverge, with domestic SCFI and CCFI falling and BDI continuing to rebound sharply. Short - term focus should be on the implementation of new round of stable growth stimulus policies, the recovery of the real - estate market, and the impact of international geopolitical changes [2][33]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Production: Steel Industry Chain Recovers, Asphalt, PX, Tire Operating Rates Decrease - In the week of July 25, the coke oven capacity utilization rate increased by 0.71 pct, blast furnace operating rate remained flat, and rebar production increased by 2.9 tons. Meanwhile, the petroleum asphalt operating rate decreased by 4.0 pct, chemical PX operating rate decreased by 0.81 pct, PTA remained flat, and the operating rates of automobile all - steel tires and semi - steel tires decreased by 0.08 pct and 0.12 pct respectively [3][9][10]. 3.2 Demand: Real - Estate Market Marginally Rebounds, BDI Continues to Rebound Rapidly - In the week of July 20, the commercial housing transaction area rebounded, the inventory - to - sales ratio increased, land transaction area rebounded, and the residential land transaction premium rate increased. Movie box office increased by 215 million yuan compared with the previous week, and automobile manufacturers' daily average retail and wholesale sales increased by 11,000 and 12,000 vehicles respectively. In the week of July 25, the shipping index SCFI fell by 3.3%, CCFI fell by 3.24%, and BDI continued to rebound significantly by 9.9% [3][15][21]. 3.3 Price: Crude Oil Falls, Coking Coal and Rebar Rise Significantly, Non - Ferrous Metals Remain Stable - In the week of July 25, Brent crude oil price fell by 1.21% to $68.44 per barrel, coking coal futures price rose by 32.6% to 1,236.5 yuan per ton. LME copper, aluminum, and zinc futures prices changed by +0.02%, - 0.27%, and +0.18% respectively, and domestic rebar futures price rose by 5.07%. The overall price of agricultural products slightly decreased but remained in a seasonal upward trend, with pork, eggs, vegetables, and fruits changing by +1.02%, +6.83%, +1.15%, and - 1.24% respectively compared with the previous week [3][23][26]. 3.4 Logistics: Subway Passenger Volume and Flight Volume Decrease, Peak Congestion Index in First - Tier Cities Continues to Fall - In the week of July 25, subway passenger volumes in Beijing and Shanghai decreased, domestic and international flight volumes decreased, and the peak congestion index in first - tier cities continued to fall [4][29][30]. 3.5 Summary: Coking Coal and Rebar Prices Rise, BDI Continues to Rebound Rapidly - High - frequency economic data shows production end heat differentiation, real - estate market marginal improvement, price trend differentiation, and shipping index trend divergence. Short - term focus should be on new policies, real - estate market recovery, and geopolitical changes [33].

Report Investment Rating - No industry investment rating provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The bond market is under triple pressure, but a short - term small - scale rally may be expected. The bond market sentiment was suppressed due to the triple factors of the "anti - involution" sentiment driving up commodity prices, the continuous improvement of the stock market diverting funds, and the marginal improvement of some macro signals boosting risk appetite. From July 21st to 25th, the bond market underwent a rapid adjustment, with the yields of government bonds, policy - bank bonds, local government bonds, and credit bonds of all tenors rising across the board. Currently, there is a phased bullish view on the bond market, and the 10Y government bond yield may return to around 1.65%. It is expected that the Federal Reserve will significantly cut interest rates in 2026, presenting prominent opportunities in short - to medium - term US Treasury bonds [3][11][83]. Summary by Directory 1. Macro News - From January to June this year, the total profit of industrial enterprises above designated size in China was 3.44 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 1.8%. The total operating income was 66.78 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 2.5%, and the operating cost was 57.12 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 2.8%. The operating profit margin was 5.15%, a year - on - year decrease of 0.22pct. On July 19th, the construction ceremony of the Yarlung Zangbo River downstream hydropower project was held. The project has a total investment of about 12 trillion yuan and a total installed capacity of about 60 million kilowatts. On December 18, 2025, the full - island customs closure of Hainan Free Trade Port will be officially launched. The scope of "zero - tariff" goods will be expanded to about 74% of all commodity tariff items, an increase of nearly 53 percentage points compared to before the closure. On July 23rd (local time), US President Trump stated that he would impose simple tariffs of 15% to 50% on most other countries in the world. On July 24th (local time), EU member states overwhelmingly passed a decision to impose tariffs on US products worth 93 billion euros [12][15]. 2. Medium - term High - frequency Data 2.1 Consumption - As of July 20th, the daily average retail volume of passenger car manufacturers was 58,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 16.8%, and the daily average wholesale volume was 58,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 8.3%. As of July 25th, the total box office revenue of domestic movies in the past 7 days was 984.43 million yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 33.6% but an increase of 110.2% compared to a month ago. As of July 11th, the total retail volume of three major household appliances was 2.471 million units, a year - on - year increase of 26.5%, and the total retail sales were 5.81 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 28.9% [13][21]. 2.2 Transportation - As of July 20th, the container throughput of ports was 6.642 million TEUs, a year - on - year increase of 5.2%. As of July 25th, the CCFI composite index was 1261.4, a year - on - year decrease of 42.2%. The average daily subway passenger volume in first - tier cities in the past 7 days was 39.519 million person - times, a year - on - year decrease of 2.2% but an increase of 1.0% compared to a month ago. As of July 20th, the postal express pick - up volume was 3.67 billion pieces, a year - on - year increase of 13.8% but a decrease of 10.0% compared to 4 weeks ago. The railway freight volume was 80.488 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.8%, and the highway truck traffic volume was 53.431 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 2.0% [26][28][31]. 2.3 Capacity Utilization - As of July 23rd, the blast furnace capacity utilization rate of major steel enterprises in China was 77.6%, a year - on - year increase of 2.3 percentage points. As of July 24th, the average asphalt capacity utilization rate was 26.0%, a year - on - year increase of 3.0 percentage points. As of July 24th, the soda ash capacity utilization rate was 82.8%, a year - on - year decrease of 6.5 percentage points, and the PVC capacity utilization rate was 74.9%, a year - on - year increase of 1.8 percentage points. As of July 25th, the average PX capacity utilization rate was 80.8%, and the average PTA capacity utilization rate was 80.7% [34][37]. 2.4 Real Estate - As of July 18th, the transaction area of second - hand houses in 9 sample cities decreased by 16.0% compared to 4 weeks ago. As of July 25th, the total transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities in the past 7 days was 1.564 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 5.6% [41][42]. 2.5 Prices - As of July 25th, the average wholesale price of pork was 20.7 yuan per kilogram, a year - on - year decrease of 17.5% but an increase of 2.4% compared to 4 weeks ago. The average wholesale price of vegetables was 4.4 yuan per kilogram, a year - on - year decrease of 10.3% but an increase of 0.5% compared to 4 weeks ago. The average wholesale price of 6 key fruits was 7.1 yuan per kilogram, a year - on - year decrease of 0.6% and a decrease of 4.2% compared to 4 weeks ago. The average price of thermal coal at northern ports was 641 yuan per ton, a year - on - year decrease of 24.5% but an increase of 4.7% compared to 4 weeks ago. The average spot price of WTI crude oil was 65.7 US dollars per barrel, a year - on - year decrease of 15.7% and a decrease of 2.5% compared to 4 weeks ago. The average spot price of rebar was 3310.4 yuan per ton, a year - on - year increase of 2.6% and an increase of 7.9% compared to 4 weeks ago. The average spot price of iron ore was 799.6 yuan per ton, a year - on - year decrease of 0.7% but an increase of 10.8% compared to 4 weeks ago. The average spot price of glass was 15.1 yuan per square meter, a year - on - year decrease of 14.8% but an increase of 9.2% compared to 4 weeks ago [46][49][54]. 3. Bond and Foreign Exchange Markets - On July 25th, R001 was 1.55%, up 15.10BP from July 21st; R007 was 1.69%, up 19.60BP from July 21st. DR001 was 1.52%, up 15.65BP from July 21st; DR007 was 1.65%, up 16.22BP from July 21st. Most government bond yields rose. On July 25th, the yields of 1 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year government bonds were 1.39%, 1.59%, 1.73%, and 1.98% respectively, up 4.1BP, 6.0BP, 6.8BP, and 8.7BP respectively from July 18th. The yields of 1 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year policy - bank bonds were 1.52%, 1.70%, 1.81%, and 2.08% respectively, up 4.6BP, 9.5BP, 9.0BP, and 5.2BP respectively from July 18th. The yields of 1 - year, 5 - year, and 10 - year local government bonds were 1.44%, 1.67%, and 1.83% respectively, up 5.2BP, 6.2BP, and 6.1BP respectively from July 18th. The yields of 1 - month and 1 - year AAA and AA + inter - bank certificates of deposit were 1.57%, 1.67%, 1.58%, and 1.70% respectively, up 6.0BP, 5.3BP, 6.0BP, and 5.3BP respectively from July 18th. As of July 25th, 2025, the 10 - year government bond yields of the US, Japan, the UK, and Germany were 4.4%, 1.6%, 4.6%, and 2.8% respectively, down 4BP, up 8BP, down 4BP, and up 6BP respectively from July 18th. On July 25th, the central parity rate and spot exchange rate of the US dollar against the Chinese yuan were 7.14 and 7.17 respectively, down 79 and 87 pips respectively from July 18th [56][61][70]. 4. Institutional Behavior - As of July 27th, the net - loss rate of public - offering wealth management products of wealth management companies was about 1.2%, down 0.77 percentage points from 1.97% at the beginning of the year, and the current percentile of the net - loss rate within the year was 36.7%. Since the beginning of 2025, the duration of medium - and long - term pure bond funds investing in interest - rate bonds has shown a trend of first decreasing and then increasing, with a slight decline in the past week. On July 25th, 2025, the estimated average duration was about 5.3 years, a decrease of about 0.17 years compared to the previous week (July 18th), and the weekly data showed the first decline since early May. The duration of medium - and long - term pure bond funds investing in credit bonds has shown a fluctuating trend since the beginning of 2025, and has risen rapidly in the past two weeks. On July 25th, 2025, the estimated median duration was about 2.5 years, and the estimated average duration was about 2.6 years, an increase of about 0.3 years compared to the previous week (July 18th) [77][80][81]. 5. Investment Recommendations - Currently, there is a phased bullish view on the bond market, and the 10Y government bond yield may return to around 1.65%. In 2025, there is no trend - based bond market rally, so it is advisable to take profits in a timely manner. Due to the rapid adjustment of the bond market and the rapid reduction of the duration of bond funds, it is believed that the bond market risks may have been mitigated. It is expected that the Federal Reserve will significantly cut interest rates in 2026, presenting prominent opportunities in short - to medium - term US Treasury bonds [83].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - In the week from July 20th to July 26th, among the 49 updated high - frequency indicators in Guojin Securities' fixed - income fundamental monitoring system, the number of "bullish" and "bearish" indicators is 27 and 22 respectively. "Bullish" factors are mainly reflected in the start - up rates of most industries, real estate transaction areas, consumption, travel, exports, and most agricultural product prices, while "bearish" factors are mainly shown in coal consumption, crude steel production, real estate prices, industrial product inventory and demand, etc. [2][17] - The signals released by the ten interest rate synchronous indicators are mainly "bearish", accounting for 6/10. Compared with last week, the US dollar index sent a "bearish" signal. [3][19] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Fundamental Thermometer - **Overview**: Among the 49 updated high - frequency indicators, 27 are "bullish" and 22 are "bearish" for the bond market. [2][17] - **High - frequency Indicator Tracking**: - **Absolute Value Tracking**: Many indicators are monitored, such as economic growth (e.g., daily coal consumption and crude steel production), industrial production (e.g., start - up rates of various industries), real estate (e.g., housing and land transaction areas), infrastructure, inventory, consumption, travel, and inflation. The qualitative judgment for each indicator is provided, with some being "bullish" and some "bearish". [14] - **Monthly Year - on - Year Tracking**: Similar to the absolute value tracking, various economic aspects are covered, and the year - on - year changes and qualitative judgments for each indicator are presented. [16] 3.2 Interest Rate Synchronous Indicators - **Overview**: The signals released by the ten interest rate synchronous indicators are mainly "bearish", with a proportion of 6/10. The US dollar index sent a "bearish" signal compared with last week. [3][19] - **Specific Indicators**: - **Enterprise Medium - and Long - Term Loan Balance Growth Rate**: 8.3%, lower than the previous value of 8.4%, "bullish". [3][18][19] - **Building Materials Composite Index**: 113.9, higher than the previous value of 111.3, "bearish". [3][18][19] - **BCI: Enterprise Recruitment Prospective Index**: 49.1%, lower than the previous value of 50.5%, "bullish". [3][18][19] - **Unemployment Benefit Eligibility Internet Search Index Year - on - Year (6MMA)**: 105.2%, lower than the previous value of 105.7%, "bearish". [3][18][19] - **PMI New Export Orders Trend Value**: - 0.25%, lower than the previous value of - 0.24%, "bullish". [3][18][19] - **PMI Supply - Demand Balance Trend Value**: 0.17%, higher than the previous value of 0.16%, "bearish". [3][18][19] - **Durable Goods Price**: 0.943, lower than the previous value of 0.944, "bullish". [3][18][19] - **Bill Financing**: 14.7 trillion, lower than the previous value of 15.1 trillion, "bearish". [3][18][19] - **US Dollar Index**: 97.5, lower than the previous value of 98.4, "bearish". [3][18][19] - **Copper - Gold Ratio**: 17.0, higher than the previous value of 16.6, "bearish". [3][18][19]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent trends in industrial production, construction activity, and freight volume, indicating a slight recovery in industrial production and construction, while highlighting the ongoing challenges in the real estate market and fluctuations in freight metrics [2][5][53]. Group 1: Industrial Production - Industrial production has shown a slight recovery, with the blast furnace operating rate increasing by 0.8% year-on-year [2][5]. - The chemical production chain has seen improvements, with soda ash and polyester filament operating rates increasing by 3.3 percentage points to -2.7% and 1.9 percentage points to 6%, respectively [2][17]. - The automotive sector has also experienced improvements, with semi-steel tire operating rates up by 3.2 percentage points to -3.1% [2][17]. Group 2: Construction Activity - Construction activity has shown signs of recovery, with the national grinding operating rate increasing by 1.4 percentage points year-on-year to -2.3% [2][29]. - Cement shipment rates have significantly improved, with a year-on-year increase of 2.4 percentage points to -0.6% [2][29]. - Despite a slight decline in asphalt operating rates, they remain higher than the same period last year, indicating overall stability in construction activity [2][29]. Group 3: Freight Volume and Demand - Real estate transactions remain low, with the average daily transaction area for new homes down by 7.1 percentage points year-on-year to -26% [2][53]. - Freight volume has seen a recovery, with port cargo throughput and container throughput increasing by 1.3 percentage points to 8% and 4.4 percentage points to 5.2%, respectively [2][65]. - The migration scale index has increased by 4.9 percentage points year-on-year to 17.4%, indicating stronger movement of people [2][77]. Group 4: Price Trends - Agricultural product prices are generally weak, with pork, vegetables, and fruit prices declining by 0.1%, 0.1%, and 1.0% respectively, while egg prices have slightly increased by 0.1% [3][107]. - Industrial product prices have generally risen, with the Nanhua Industrial Price Index increasing by 1.0% [3][119]. - The energy and chemical price index rose by 0.9%, and the metal price index also increased by 1.0% [3][119].