方正证券发布研报称，锂行业处于底部投资区间。当前锂价下，全球锂资源资本开支热情消退，行业供 给增量有限。而新能源汽车和储能需求则在持续拉动锂盐需求增长，供求关系的拐点可期。该行认为中 国在江西、青海等地对锂资源生产的规范有助于行业加速走向供给出清，抬升锂价底部支撑位。 Greenbushes：产量持稳，现金成本上行 据IGO，Greenbushes矿山25年Q2生产锂精矿34.0万吨，环比持平;销售41.2万吨，环比上升12%。25年Q2 实现现金成本366澳元/吨，约合238美元/吨，环比上涨7%。公司对Greenbushes矿山26财年的经营指引 为锂精矿产量150-165万吨，吨现金成本310-360澳元，约合202-234美元。对比25财年，Greenbushes项 目产量有望增长2-17万吨，成本保持在24财年上下浮动。 Pilbara：P1000项目扩建完成，产量走出Q1低谷 方正证券主要观点如下： 澳洲四大在产锂矿经营速递 回顾25财年，公司共生产锂精矿75.46万吨，超过公司指引;FOB成本为627澳元/吨，符合公司指引;完成 资本开支5.69亿澳元，符合公司指引。26财年，公司计划生产82- ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The current market is dominated by the issue of mining licenses, but both the lithium salt and battery cell markets are under significant inventory pressure, and the process of destocking is slow. The pattern of medium - to long - term supply - demand imbalance has not been substantially alleviated [3]. - There are two main market logics. One is that the disturbance of macro - sentiment and supply - side mining license issues drives the futures price to rebound, creating profit windows for lithium salt enterprises, increasing production enthusiasm, and potentially leading to a temporary shortage of lithium ore and pushing up the price of lithium salt. After the disturbance fades, the market will return to the fundamentals of demand - based pricing. The other is that in the downward price cycle, the over - capacity of lithium salt is causing pressure to clear up, which is transmitted upstream to the mining end, forming a negative feedback loop. Also, cost reduction due to technological upgrades is driving the price of lithium carbonate down [3]. - In the second half of the year, the futures market is expected to be divided into two stages. In the third quarter, the futures price is expected to rise due to improved macro - sentiment, mining license disturbances, and the off - season not being weak. In the fourth quarter, with the completion of technological upgrades and concentrated production release, the futures price is expected to decline [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Futures Data - **Price Interval Prediction**: The short - term strong support level of the lithium carbonate main contract is 65,000 yuan/ton, with a current volatility of 42.2% and a historical percentile of 73.5% (3 - year) [2]. - **Daily Changes**: The closing price of the lithium carbonate main contract is 69,620 yuan/ton, up 1,780 yuan (2.62%) from the previous day and down 980 yuan (-1.39%) week - on - week. The trading volume is 425,359 lots, down 11,848 lots (-2.71%) from the previous day and down 367,550 lots (-46.35%) week - on - week. The open interest is 257,770 lots, up 25,708 lots (11.08%) from the previous day and down 14,983 lots (-5.49%) week - on - week [8]. - **Monthly Spread Changes**: LC09 - 11 is - 360 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan (125%) from the previous day and down 380 yuan (-1900%) week - on - week; LC11 - 12 is - 260 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan (-28%) from the previous day and down 80 yuan (44%) week - on - week; LC11 - 01 is - 420 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan (5%) from the previous day and down 340 yuan (425%) week - on - week [10]. 2. Spot Data - **Lithium Ore Daily Average Quotes**: The average prices of various lithium ores have declined. For example, the average price of lithium mica (Li₂O: 2 - 2.5%) is 1,690 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan (-1.17%) from the previous day and down 85 yuan (-4.79%) week - on - week [15]. - **Carbon/Hydrogen Lithium Daily Prices**: The average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 68,850 yuan/ton, down 250 yuan (-0.36%) from the previous day and down 2,000 yuan (-2.82%) week - on - week. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is 70,950 yuan/ton, down 250 yuan (-0.35%) from the previous day and down 2,000 yuan (-2.74%) week - on - week [18]. - **Lithium Industry Chain Spot Spreads**: The difference between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 2,100 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous day and week [21]. 3. Basis and Warehouse Receipt Data - **Basis Quotes**: The basis quotes of different lithium carbonate brands for the LC2507 contract are provided, with most showing no change in daily price [26]. - **Warehouse Receipt Quantity**: The total number of warehouse receipts is 15,023 lots, an increase of 580 lots from the previous day. Some warehouses have changes in warehouse receipt quantities, such as an increase of 300 lots in Xiamen Guomao (COSCO Shipping Zhenjiang) and a decrease of 1,000 lots in Shengxin Lithium Energy (Suining) [29][30]. 4. Cost and Profit - **Production Profit**: The production profit from purchasing lithium ore for lithium carbonate production is presented, including that from purchasing lithium spodumene concentrate (Li₂O: 6%) and lithium mica concentrate (Li₂O: 2.5%) [32]. - **Theoretical Delivery Profit and Import Profit**: The theoretical delivery profit and import profit of lithium carbonate are also shown, with their trends over time [32].

证券代码：002240 证券简称：盛新锂能 公告编号： 2025-046 盛新锂能集团股份有限公司 盛新锂能集团股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）于近日接到公司控股股东 深圳盛屯集团有限公司（以下简称"盛屯集团"）及其一致行动人深圳市盛屯汇 泽贸易有限公司（以下简称"盛屯汇泽"）的通知，获悉盛屯集团、盛屯汇泽分 别将其所持有的公司无限售流通股 1,475 万股、675 万股股份办理了质押业务， 盛屯汇泽将其质押给厦门银行股份有限公司的 1,849 万股公司股份办理了解除质 押。现将具体情况公告如下： 一、本次股份质押基本情况 司股份质押给厦门银行股份有限公司。 是否为控 是否为 | | | | | | 是否 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 股股东或 | | | 占其所 | 占公司 | | 限售股 | | | | | | | 本次质押 | | | | | 为补 | 质押起始 | | 质押到 | | | 股东名称 第一大股 | | | | 持股份 总股本 | | （如 | | | | ...

| 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 主力合约收盘价（日，元/吨） | 69,620.00 | +1780.00↑ 前20名净持仓（日，手） | -173,088.00 | -2344.00↓ | | 期货市场 | 主力合约持仓量（日，手） | 257,770.00 | +25708.00↑ 近远月合约价差（日，元/吨） | -760.00 | -220.00↓ | | | 广期所仓单（日，手/吨） | 14,443.00 | +1840.00↑ | | | | 现货市场 | 电池级碳酸锂平均价（日，元/吨） | 70,950.00 | -250.00↓ 工业级碳酸锂平均价（日，万元/吨） | 68,850.00 | -250.00↓ | | | Li₂CO₃主力合约基差（日，元/吨） | 1,330.00 | -2030.00↓ | | | | 上游情况 | 锂辉石精矿(6%CIF中国)平均价（日，美元/吨） | 780.00 | 0.00 磷锂铝石平均价（日，元/吨） | 6,2 ...

盛新锂能公告，公司控股股东盛屯集团及其一致行动人盛屯汇泽分别质押1475万股和675万股公司股 份，占其所持股份比例的25.53%和12.44%，占公司总股本比例的1.61%和0.74%。同时，盛屯汇泽解除 质押1849万股公司股份，占其所持股份比例的19.82%和0.74%。截至公告披露日，盛屯集团及其一致行 动人累计质押股份数量为1.04亿股，占其所持股份比例的49.80%，占公司总股本比例的11.34%。 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The long - term oversupply logic of lithium carbonate remains unchanged due to new projects in recent years, but short - term sentiment is highly volatile, with significant supply uncertainties and marginal improvements in supply - demand dynamics. LC prices are expected to remain in a wide - ranging consolidation pattern. It is advisable to focus on the LC2509 - LC2511 long spread and the LC2511 - LC2601 short spread [1][5][59][63]. Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Price Review and Four Changes 1.1 Price Review - Lithium prices this year have gone through three phases: a rebound before the Spring Festival due to bullish speculation and strong demand; a decline from February to May under the influence of factors like higher - than - expected supply, lowered demand forecasts, etc.; and a rebound since early June due to marginal improvements in fundamentals [12][13]. 1.2 Four Changes - **Macro Improvement**: Since 2025, as lithium prices entered the bottom range, macro factors have become more prominent. From April 2025, due to reciprocal tariffs, the influence of macro sentiment on lithium carbonate prices grew significantly, with R² jumping from near zero on April 7 to 0.8 by June and then easing to around 0.6. Since June, with eased US - China relations and stronger - than - expected demand resilience in some commodities, the market turned bullish and short positions in lithium carbonate were withdrawn [18][19][20]. - **Expected Temporary Supply Contraction**: The decline in lithium carbonate prices may lead to a reduction in China's lithium imports. From May to June, Chile's lithium carbonate exports to China dropped sharply by 46% and 41% year - on - year respectively. Lithium ore imports also decreased from June, with a 18.1% year - on - year decline in June [24][25]. - **Off - Season Demand Slightly Exceeds Expectations**: Historically, lithium carbonate demand weakens in June and July. However, in 2025, cathode production in June and July is expected to increase month - on - month by 3.7% and 2.5% respectively, showing demand resilience [32][33]. - **Rapid Warehouse Receipt Reduction**: Since late March, futures' decline led to spot premiums. Due to lower prices this year, companies hedged less, and futures discounts weakened the willingness to deliver but increased the demand for warehouse receipt. After a concentrated cancellation in April, warehouse receipt started declining from late May, and by the end of June, it dropped to 22,000 tons. Low warehouse receipt levels may support futures prices [35][36][38]. 2. Key Influencing Factors - **Mine Issues**: Since mid - July, concerns over mine violations and license renewals have drawn market attention. Officially announced suspensions by Zangge Mining and Jiangte Motor have a limited output impact. However, issues like unqualified mining licenses and expiring permits in some mines may constraint about 25,000 tons/month and 14,000 tons/month of lithium supply respectively. If mines shut down, Q3 will see a supply gap and price rebound; if not, prices will return to fundamentals [40][41][43]. - **Sentiment Against "Involution - style" Competition**: Since early July, this sentiment has spread across commodities. The impact on lithium carbonate smelting is relatively limited, but on the mining side, it may raise standards and costs. In the short term, it may cause companies to cut lithium carbonate purchases; in the long run, it may improve industry margins and lead to slight price increases [45][46][47]. - **Warehouse Receipt Issue**: July is a month of concentrated cancellations, with low and declining warehouse receipt levels. As prices rise, more registrations are expected in August. However, with high open interest in the September contract, limited warehouse receipt increases in August may pose risks [49][55]. 3. Supply - Demand Balance - In July - August, demand slightly exceeded expectations while imports fell short, likely maintaining a tight supply - demand equilibrium. If the peak season continues into September, a deficit of nearly 2,000 tons may emerge. Minor disruptions at major mines in August could cause a significant deficit, accelerating inventory drawdowns and price increases [56][57]. 4. Strategy Recommendation - It is advisable to focus on the LC2509 - LC2511 long spread (buy LC2509/sell LC2511) and the LC2511 - LC2601 short spread (sell LC2511/buy LC2601). The September - November spread could widen if mine production cuts materialize, presenting a long - spread opportunity; otherwise, the spread volatility will narrow. The November - January period is the consumption low season, and the LC2511 - LC2601 short spread is worth monitoring as it is less sensitive to mine production cuts, and the spread may return to below - 1,000 CNY/ton in Q4 [1][5][63].

（文章来源：证券日报） 证券日报网讯赣锋锂业8月5日在互动平台回答投资者提问时表示，2024年度分红已于2025年7月17日正 式实施，回购股份计划已获股东大会授权，具体实施时间及方案将根据市场情况适时推出。 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The report presents the latest data on lithium carbonate, lithium ore, cathode materials, and related price spreads and inventories. It also mentions that the Central Political Bureau will govern disorderly competition in enterprises and promote capacity management in key industries. In addition, it is expected that the futures price may face certain trends in the short - term due to factors such as the normal production of mines in Jiangxi, the cooling of the "anti - involution" sentiment caused by price drops, small increases in demand - side production schedules, and limited procurement space for downstream buyers [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Lithium Compounds - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate has an average price of 71,350 with no change, and SMM industrial - grade lithium carbonate has an average price of 69,250 with no change [1]. - Among lithium carbonate futures contracts, the closing price of lithium carbonate 2508 is 69,200 with a 1.05% increase; lithium carbonate 2509 has a 0.09% increase; lithium carbonate 2510 has a 0.06% increase; lithium carbonate 2511 has a - 0.09% decrease; lithium carbonate 2512 has a - 0.35% decrease [1]. Lithium Ore - The average price of lithium spodumene concentrate (CIF China) is 760 with a change of 5 [1]. - The prices of lithium mica with different Li₂O contents are: 1085 for Li₂O: 1.5% - 2.0%, 1710 for Li₂O: 2.0% - 2.5%; the prices of amblygonite are 5350 for Li₂O: 6% - 7% (with a change of 75) and 6280 for Li₂O: 7% - 8% (with a change of 85) [2]. Cathode Materials - The average price of lithium iron phosphate (power type) is 32,630, the average price of ternary material 811 (polycrystalline/power type) is 145,170 with a 20 increase, the average price of ternary material 523 (single - crystal/power type) is 116,855 with a 30 increase, and the average price of ternary material 613 (single - crystal/power type) is 122,485 with a 10 increase [2]. Price Spreads - The difference between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate (electro - carbon - industrial carbon) is 2100; the difference between battery - grade lithium carbonate and the main contract is 2310 with a 200 change; the difference between the near - month and the first - continuous contract is 120 with an 80 change; the difference between the near - month and the second - continuous contract is - 120 with a 200 change [2]. Inventory - The total inventory (weekly, tons) is 141,726 with a - 1444 change, the inventory of smelters (weekly, tons) is 51,958 with a - 3427 change, the inventory of downstream (weekly, tons) is 45,888 with a 3073 change, the inventory of others (weekly, tons) is 43,880 with a - 1090 change, and the registered warehouse receipts (daily, tons) is 12,603 with a 5998 change [2]. Profit Estimation - The cash cost of externally purchased lithium spodumene concentrate is 68,441, and the profit is 75,292; the profit of externally purchased lithium mica concentrate is - 6850 [3].

Core Viewpoint - Weiling Co., Ltd. (002667.SZ) has announced a restricted stock incentive plan for 2025, proposing to issue 18.5655 million shares, accounting for 7.66% of the total share capital, aimed at the management and core technical personnel [1][2]. Summary by Sections Incentive Plan Details - The restricted stock will be granted at a price of 6.10 CNY per share, which is approximately 50% of the closing price of 12.03 CNY on August 4 [2]. - The plan includes two unlocking periods of 12 and 24 months, with each unlocking 50% of the shares. The first unlocking condition is for the company to achieve a positive EBITDA in 2025, while the second condition requires a positive EBITDA in 2026 and a minimum EBITDA of 60 million CNY from its subsidiary [3][4]. Management and Shareholder Dynamics - If the performance targets are not met, the restricted shares will not be unlocked, and the company will repurchase them at the grant price plus bank interest, indicating a low-risk scenario for management [5]. - The allocation of 7.66% of total share capital for this incentive plan suggests that management is not solely relying on the buyback as a safety net, but rather is taking a significant gamble [6]. Industry Context - Weiling Co., Ltd. has experienced fluctuating performance in the lithium carbonate sector, with a peak net profit of 79 million CNY in 2022, followed by revenues of 1.141 billion CNY and 533 million CNY in 2023 and 2024, respectively, resulting in net losses of 217 million CNY and 322 million CNY [6]. - The lithium carbonate market has seen a drastic decline in prices, with spot prices dropping from a peak of 600,000 CNY per ton in Q4 2022 to below 60,000 CNY per ton, leading to significant losses across the industry [7][10]. Future Outlook - Recent developments, including the sixth meeting of the Central Financial Committee, have sparked optimism in the lithium carbonate and polysilicon industries, with prices rebounding to around 80,000 CNY per ton, indicating potential recovery [10]. - The incentive plan reflects management's strategy to mitigate uncertainty while capitalizing on potential market rebounds, although the appropriateness of using EBITDA as a performance metric has been questioned [12][15]. Financial Metrics and Concerns - The use of EBITDA as a performance target has raised concerns, as it does not account for depreciation and amortization, which are significant costs for capital-intensive manufacturing companies [12][13]. - The company's forecast for H1 2025 indicates a potential net profit of 0 to 5 million CNY, with a projected loss of 5.2 to 6.9 million CNY in non-recurring net profit, highlighting the disparity between EBITDA and net profit metrics [14][15].

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market," indicating that the overall return of the industry is expected to exceed the market benchmark index by more than 5% over the next 6 months [7][13]. Core Insights - The P1000 project has shown significant benefits in Q2 2025, with production increasing by 77% quarter-on-quarter, while costs decreased by 7.7% [2][5]. - In Q2 2025, the production of lithium concentrate was 221,000 tons, reflecting a quarter-on-quarter increase of 77% due to the completion of the P1000 expansion [3]. - The average selling price of lithium concentrate in Q2 2025 was $599 per ton, a decrease of 17% compared to the previous quarter [4]. - The FOB cost in Q2 2025 was $397 per ton, down 7.7% quarter-on-quarter, attributed to increased production and improved cost efficiency from the P1000 project [5]. - The actual production for FY 2025 was 755,000 tons, exceeding guidance, while the guidance for FY 2026 is set at 820,000 to 870,000 tons [6]. Summary by Sections Production and Sales - In Q2 2025, the production of lithium concentrate was 221,000 tons, with a quarter-on-quarter increase of 77% due to the P1000 expansion [3]. - Sales of SC5.1 concentrate reached 216,000 tons, reflecting a quarter-on-quarter increase of 72.2% [3]. Pricing and Costs - The selling price of lithium concentrate in Q2 2025 was $599 per ton, down 17% from the previous quarter [4]. - The FOB cost was $397 per ton, a decrease of 7.7% quarter-on-quarter, driven by increased production and cost efficiency [5]. Project Progress - The Australian midstream demonstration plant project is on track for completion by Q4 2025 [6]. - The Brazil Colina project is progressing with directional exploration, with results expected in Q2 2026 [6]. - The joint venture with POSCO produced 3,037 tons of lithium hydroxide in Q2 2025, with ongoing certification processes for additional production lines [6]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies such as Zhongjin, Yongxing, Ganfeng, Tianqi, Yahua, Guocheng, Shengxin, Jiangte, and Rongjie, anticipating price increases driven by seasonal demand and production adjustments [7].