hyzqdatemark 2026 年 01 月 30 日 证券研究报告 电力设备 行业点评报告 证券分析师 查浩 SAC：S1350524060004 zhahao@huayuanstock.com 刘晓宁 SAC：S1350523120003 liuxiaoning@huayuanstock.com 戴映炘 SAC：S1350524080002 daiyingxin@huayuanstock.com 豆鹏超 doupengchao@huayuanstock.com 板块表现： 电网投资持续位居高位 储能装机高景气 投资评级： 看好（维持） ——电力设备 2025 年业绩前瞻 投资要点： 风险提示：产品毛利率水平低于预期；项目跨期交付风险；竞争格局恶化风险 资料来源：Wind，华源证券研究所。注：除已出业绩预告的公司（华明装备）外，其余公司 2025 年归母净利润预测均来自华源证券研究所 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的评级说明和重要声明 第 2页/ 共 3页 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的评级说明和重要声明 电网设备："十五五"国网投资有望再上台阶。按照 Wind 口径，2025 年前 11 个 月电网投资完成额 56 ...

Core Viewpoint - Jinko Technology (601778.SH) has early established its energy storage business, accumulating rich project resources and experience, making it a core strategic focus of the company [1] Group 1: Energy Storage Business Development - The company has over 10 GWh of energy storage projects under construction and in reserve, covering various applications such as grid-side, user-side, and integrated solar-storage [1] - Major grid-side energy storage projects of 560 MWh located in Gansu and Anhui are set to be connected to the grid in 2025, while a 400 MWh project in Qinhuangdao, Hebei, has already commenced construction at the end of last year [1] - Approximately 4 GWh of independent energy storage station projects are planned to start construction soon across regions including North China, Northwest, East China, Southeast, and Central China [1] Group 2: Strategic Initiatives and Future Plans - The company is actively building a smart operation and maintenance platform, extending independent energy storage from source, grid, and load sides to virtual power plants and green electricity direct connection services [1] - Jinko Technology aims to further expand the construction scale of various energy storage projects, leveraging its rich project reserves and diverse development and operational experience [1] - The company is committed to implementing a "light and heavy combination" business model to create new growth drivers for its business [1]

Core Viewpoint - Jinko Technology (601778.SH) has early established its energy storage business, accumulating rich project resources and experience, making it a core strategic focus of the company [1] Group 1: Energy Storage Business Development - The company has over 10 GWh of energy storage projects under construction and in reserve, covering various applications such as grid-side, user-side, and integrated solar-storage [1] - Major grid-side energy storage projects of 560 MWh located in Gansu and Anhui are set to be connected to the grid in 2025, while a 400 MWh project in Qinhuangdao, Hebei, has already commenced construction at the end of last year [1] - Approximately 4 GWh of independent energy storage station projects are planned to start construction soon across North China, Northwest, East China, Southeast, and Central China [1] Group 2: Strategic Initiatives and Future Plans - The company is actively building a smart operation and maintenance platform, extending independent energy storage from source, grid, and load sides to virtual power plants and green electricity direct connection services [1] - Jinko Technology aims to further expand the construction scale of various energy storage projects, leveraging its rich project reserves and diverse development and operational experience [1] - The company is committed to implementing a "light and heavy combination" business model to create new growth drivers for its business [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the 2025 energy outlook in China, highlighting significant advancements in energy supply security, green low-carbon transformation, and the development of new energy storage systems, which are crucial for supporting economic recovery and ensuring energy supply stability. Energy Supply Security - By 2025, China's energy supply security is expected to improve significantly, with stable coal production and record-high oil and gas outputs. The industrial crude oil production is projected to increase by 1.5% year-on-year, while natural gas production is expected to rise by 6.2% [5][6] - The power supply is anticipated to remain stable, supported by the commissioning of several ultra-high voltage direct current transmission projects, enhancing the interconnectivity of the power system [6] Green Low-Carbon Transformation - The pace of green low-carbon transformation is accelerating, with new policies aimed at integrating and promoting renewable energy consumption. Wind and solar power installations are expected to exceed 430 million kilowatts, with total installed capacity surpassing 1.8 billion kilowatts, accounting for over 60% of renewable energy generation [6][7] - Renewable energy generation is projected to reach approximately 4 trillion kilowatt-hours, exceeding the combined electricity consumption of the 27 EU countries [6] New Energy Storage Development - New energy storage installations are expected to grow by 84% compared to the end of 2024, reaching a total capacity of 136 million kilowatts (351 million kilowatt-hours) by the end of 2025, marking a more than 40-fold increase compared to the end of the 13th Five-Year Plan [12][14] - The average storage duration is projected to increase to 2.58 hours, an increase of 0.30 hours from the end of 2024 [12] Electricity Market Transactions - The total electricity market transaction volume is expected to reach a record high of 664 billion kilowatt-hours in 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 7.4%. Market-based transactions are projected to account for 64% of total electricity consumption, an increase of 1.3 percentage points [15][16] - Cross-regional electricity transactions are anticipated to grow to 1.59 trillion kilowatt-hours, a historical high, with a year-on-year increase of 11.6% [16] Investment Trends - National energy investment is expected to maintain rapid growth, with key project investments exceeding 3.5 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of nearly 11% [21] - Investment in green transition new business formats is accelerating, with significant growth in wind and solar power installations and new energy storage projects [21][27] Regulatory Developments - The article highlights the ongoing reforms in the electricity retail market, with a focus on enhancing the regulatory framework for electricity sales companies to ensure market stability and fair competition [22][23] - The introduction of new rules for long-term electricity market transactions aims to adapt to the evolving energy landscape and support the construction of a unified national electricity market [19][20]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights a decline in various renewable energy indices, with the National Renewable Battery Index down by 0.2%, the China Securities Renewable Energy Index down by 2.5%, the Shanghai Carbon Neutrality Index down by 2.9%, and the China Securities Photovoltaic Industry Index down by 3.2% as of midday closing [1][5][6] - The storage battery ETF managed by E Fund (159566) has seen a net inflow of funds totaling 370 million yuan over three consecutive trading days, indicating investor interest despite the overall market decline [1] - The indices mentioned focus on companies involved in battery manufacturing, storage battery inverters, storage battery system integration, and battery temperature control and fire safety, suggesting potential benefits from future energy development opportunities [3] Group 2 - The photovoltaic ETF managed by E Fund tracks the China Securities Photovoltaic Industry Index, which consists of 50 representative companies across the upstream, midstream, and downstream of the photovoltaic industry chain [5] - The carbon neutrality ETF managed by E Fund tracks the Shanghai Carbon Neutrality Index, reflecting the industry's focus on achieving carbon neutrality [6]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the recent expansion of energy storage companies in both domestic and international markets, with multiple orders being secured [2] - Zhiguang Electric has signed three orders for solar-storage-diesel microgrid projects in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, utilizing customized containerized energy storage solutions [3] - Zhiguang Electric has also entered the Malaysian market, signing a supply and service agreement to deliver 150 units of fully liquid-cooled integrated machines by 2026, indicating a strategic focus on overseas markets [5] Group 2 - Zhiguang Electric anticipates turning a profit in 2025, projecting a net profit of 110 million to 160 million yuan, a significant turnaround from a loss of 326 million yuan in the previous year, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 133.69% to 149.01% [5] - Dongfang Electric's subsidiary has successfully won a bid for a 200 MW/400 MWh independent energy storage project in Shandong, which is crucial for the development of a new energy system and green energy transition [6] - Dongfang Electric has also signed a contract for a solar-storage project in Uzbekistan, which is the largest integrated solar-storage project in the region, further emphasizing the company's growth in the energy storage sector [8]

Core Viewpoint - The National Energy Administration held a press conference discussing the energy situation in 2025, focusing on energy supply during peak winter, the development of new energy storage, and the national electricity market transactions [2]. Energy Storage Development - By the end of 2025, the cumulative installed capacity of new energy storage will reach 136 million kilowatts (351 GWh), representing an 84% increase from the end of 2024 and over 40 times growth compared to the end of the 13th Five-Year Plan [3][6]. - The average storage duration will increase to 2.58 hours, up by 0.30 hours from the end of 2024 [3]. Regional Analysis - The North China region has the largest share of installed new energy storage capacity at 32.5%, followed by Northwest (28.2%) and East China (14.4%) [9]. - In the past year, North and Northwest China were the main growth areas for new energy storage, contributing 35.2% and 31.6% of the new installations, respectively [9]. Provincial Insights - Rapid development of new energy storage is observed in Xinjiang, Inner Mongolia, Yunnan, Hebei, and Shandong, with new installations of 1,023 MW, 1,003 MW, 613 MW, 569 MW, and 404 MW, respectively [11]. - The top three provinces by cumulative installed capacity are Inner Mongolia (2,026 MW), Xinjiang (1,880 MW), and Shandong (1,121 MW) [11]. Project Scale and Technology - Projects with an installed capacity of over 100 MW account for 72% of total installations, a 10 percentage point increase from 2024 [11]. - Lithium-ion battery storage remains dominant, comprising 96.1% of the installed capacity, while other technologies like compressed air and flow batteries account for 3.9% [13]. Utilization and Future Plans - The equivalent utilization hours for new energy storage are expected to reach 1,195 hours in 2025, an increase of nearly 300 hours from 2024 [15]. - The National Energy Administration plans to implement a new energy storage development plan and enhance the policy management system to support high-quality development [15]. Electricity Market Transactions - The total electricity market transaction volume is projected to reach 664 billion kilowatt-hours in 2025, a 7.4% year-on-year increase [16]. - Market-based transactions will account for 64% of total electricity consumption, up by 1.3 percentage points [16]. - Cross-provincial and cross-regional transaction volumes reached 1.59 trillion kilowatt-hours, marking an 11.6% year-on-year growth [17]. - Green electricity transactions surged to 328.5 billion kilowatt-hours, a 38.3% increase, with long-term green power agreements (PPA) reaching 60 billion kilowatt-hours [18].

Core Viewpoint - Three leading companies in the energy storage sector, Airo Energy, Trina Storage, and Tianneng Group, have secured significant overseas GWh-level energy storage project orders, collectively exceeding 3GWh, showcasing China's global competitiveness in energy storage [1] Group 1: Tianneng Group - Tianneng Group is collaborating with NASDAQ-listed VCIG to advance a 1GWh AIDC photovoltaic energy storage project in Malacca, Malaysia, which includes 250MW of photovoltaic facilities and a liquid-cooled energy storage system [2] - The project utilizes an "EPC+F" model and aims to provide zero-carbon electricity to an AI data center, addressing local energy consumption challenges [2] - The project has secured local 275KVA substation resources and is accelerating towards substantial construction [2] Group 2: Trina Storage - Trina Storage has successfully entered the European market by signing an agreement with Irish renewable energy developer Aer Soléir for a 250MW/1GWh energy storage project in Turin, Italy [3] - This project is one of the largest battery storage projects in Europe and has won a capacity auction for 2027 [3] - Trina Storage will provide its next-generation Elementa King 2 Pro liquid-cooled energy storage system along with a 20-year comprehensive service package, enhancing its market share in Europe [3] - The company has already shipped over 4GWh of energy storage solutions in Europe [3] Group 3: Airo Energy - Airo Energy has made strides in the Australian market by securing a general agency order for 1GWh of residential and commercial energy storage products annually, with a cumulative procurement of no less than 1GWh by 2026 [4] - Australia is identified as one of the most demanding markets for residential energy storage, with local storage orders reaching 54.31GWh by 2025 [4] - Airo Energy leverages its integrated "energy storage battery + inverter" advantage and local agency model to penetrate the market effectively, aligning with the energy storage needs of Australian households and businesses [4]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the energy storage industry in the Northwest region of China, focusing on the impact of policy changes and material prices on project timelines and profitability [1][3][4]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Impact of Material Prices**: The rise in prices of lithium carbonate and copper has significantly affected project timelines, leading to delays rather than cancellations. Most projects are still expected to proceed due to prior investments [1][4][8]. - **Profitability Standards**: State-owned enterprises (SOEs) require an internal rate of return (IRR) of 6.3% to 6.7% to participate in energy storage projects. Regions with favorable policies, such as Gansu, Inner Mongolia, and Ningxia, are seeing faster development due to meeting these profitability standards [5][12]. - **Gansu's Market Dynamics**: Gansu is highlighted as the only province in the Northwest with a functioning spot market for energy storage. The revenue from energy storage is approximately 0.26 CNY per kWh, which is insufficient for profitability without additional compensation policies [6][10]. - **Future Growth Projections**: It is anticipated that by 2026, the national energy storage capacity will increase by 200-300 GW, with significant growth expected in the Northwest region. The demand for energy storage will primarily be met by lithium iron phosphate batteries [3][18][24]. Additional Important Content - **Policy Variability**: The capacity pricing policy for energy storage varies by province, with nine provinces having implemented local compensation policies to address reduced rental income [3][17]. - **Construction Challenges**: Winter construction poses challenges in regions like Inner Mongolia and Xinjiang, where traditional methods may be hindered. Innovations such as prefabrication are being adopted to mitigate these issues [2]. - **Investment Environment**: The financing environment for energy storage projects is improving, with increased investment from SOEs and listed companies, indicating a positive outlook for the sector [19]. - **Electricity Pricing Adjustments**: The increase in coal-fired capacity pricing has enhanced the competitiveness of coal power, indirectly benefiting independent energy storage by creating more profitable conditions [20]. - **Regional Resource Availability**: Gansu has abundant solar resources for future development, while wind resources are limited, presenting challenges for wind energy expansion [13]. Conclusion The conference call provides a comprehensive overview of the current state and future outlook of the energy storage industry in Northwest China, emphasizing the importance of policy support, material costs, and regional resource availability in shaping project viability and profitability.

Core Insights - By the end of 2025, China's new energy storage capacity is expected to grow by 84% compared to the end of 2024, achieving over 40 times the capacity compared to the end of the 13th Five-Year Plan, indicating significant development in the sector [1] Capacity Growth - As of the end of 2025, the average energy storage duration is projected to be 2.58 hours, an increase of 0.30 hours from the end of 2024 [1] - The North China region holds the largest share of installed capacity, accounting for 32.5% of the national total [1] - In the past year, North and Northwest China have been the main growth areas for new energy storage, with newly installed capacities of 21.88 million kilowatts and 19.66 million kilowatts, respectively, representing 35.2% and 31.6% of the national new installations [1] Project Scale - There is a clear trend towards larger-scale projects, with installations of 100,000 kilowatts and above making up 72% of the total by the end of 2025, an increase of approximately 10 percentage points from the end of 2024 [1] - Projects with a storage duration of 4 hours or more are gradually increasing, with their share reaching 27.6%, up by about 12 percentage points from the end of 2024 [1] Technology Dominance - Lithium-ion battery storage remains the dominant technology, accounting for 96.1% of the installed capacity, while compressed air storage, flow battery storage, and flywheel storage make up 3.9% [1]