延续同店增势和经营韧性 华泰研究 季报点评 证券研究报告 百胜中国 (9987 HK/YUMC US) 港股通 2025 年 11 月 05 日│中国香港/美国 餐饮 百胜中国公布三季度业绩：3Q25 收入 32 亿美元/yoy+4%，不计及外币换 算 yoy+4%；3Q25 经营利润 4.00 亿美元/yoy+8%，略高于彭博一致预期 （3.98 亿美元）。对应经营利润率 12.5%/yoy+0.4pct（不计及外币换算 yoy+0.4pct）；3Q25 归母净利润 2.82 亿美元/yoy-5%，主要受 Q3 美团股 价回调影响，剔除美团投资亏损后归母净利同比+7%。Q3 股东回馈合计 4.14 亿美元（前 9 个月合计回馈 9.50 亿美元），宣布每股派息 0.24 美元；预计 全年回馈合计约 15 亿美元。季内肯德基、必胜客 Q3 同店延续稳健增长， 新店型及新品类落地进展顺利，成本费率端控制得当，同比基数抬升下经营 利润增长表现靓丽，西式快餐龙头兼具扩张势能与盈利韧性。维持买入评级。 同店延续稳健增长，经营利润率温和上涨 3Q25 公司整体系统销售额+4%，同店同比+1%，延续 Q2 增势。分品牌看 ...

Core Insights - Starbucks China has changed ownership to Hillhouse Capital to address intense market competition, while Yum China operates independently and continues to thrive in the Chinese market [2] - Yum China's Q3 report indicates robust performance with positive same-store sales growth and increased profit margins, driven by rapid expansion of KFC and Pizza Hut [2][3] Financial Performance - In Q3, Yum China's total revenue grew by 4% year-on-year to $3.2 billion, and operating profit increased by 8% to $400 million, resulting in an operating profit margin of 12.5%, up 40 basis points [3][5] - System sales also rose by 4% year-on-year, with same-store sales achieving a 1% increase and same-store transaction volume growing by 4%, marking the tenth consecutive quarter of growth [5][6] Expansion Strategy - Yum China aims to add approximately 1,600 to 1,800 new stores in 2023, maintaining this target in its Q3 report [6] - In Q3, KFC and Pizza Hut opened 402 and 158 new stores respectively, bringing the total to 12,600 and 4,022, with Pizza Hut surpassing 4,000 locations for the first time [6] Market Position and Challenges - Yum China's delivery sales surged by 32% year-on-year, accounting for approximately 51% of restaurant revenue, surpassing dine-in sales for the first time [9] - Despite strong performance, rising delivery costs and competitive pricing strategies have impacted profit margins, with KFC's average transaction value slightly declining by 1% to 38 RMB and Pizza Hut's dropping by 13% to 70 RMB [11] Shareholder Returns - Yum China plans to return $15 billion to shareholders in 2024 and an additional $30 billion from 2025 to 2026, having already returned $9.5 billion in the first nine months of the year [7] Recognition and Awards - Yum China previously won awards in the "Hong Kong Top 100" selection and is expected to compete for recognition again this year, highlighting its strong supply chain and operational capabilities [12]

Core Viewpoint - Starbucks has sold 60% of its stake in its China operations to a local private equity firm, Boyu Capital, for 28.5 billion yuan, marking a significant shift in its business strategy in China [1][4] Group 1: Company Actions - Starbucks is transferring control of over 8,000 stores in China to local management, similar to the strategies employed by McDonald's and KFC [1] - Decathlon is also considering selling 30% of its stake in its China operations, while Häagen-Dazs is looking to sell its Chinese ice cream stores [3][5] - The trend of foreign brands divesting from their Chinese operations is becoming increasingly common, indicating a broader industry shift [3] Group 2: Market Challenges - The profitability of foreign brands in China has significantly declined, with Starbucks reporting an 85.4% drop in net profit, leaving it with less than 1 billion yuan, and its market share plummeting from 42% to 14% [4] - Decathlon's net profit fell by 15.5% last year, and Häagen-Dazs has seen its store count decrease from over 400 to around 200, reflecting a broader decline in customer traffic [4][7] - Foreign brands are struggling to adapt to the changing consumer environment in China, particularly in lower-tier cities, where local brands are gaining traction [8][10] Group 3: Local Brand Strategies - Local brands are effectively utilizing online marketing and competitive pricing to attract consumers, creating a closed-loop system of online engagement and offline experience [8][10] - The success of local brands is attributed to their deep understanding of the Chinese market and their ability to adapt to local consumer preferences [10] Group 4: Future Outlook - The sale of stakes by foreign brands is not necessarily a retreat but a strategic shift towards a lighter asset model, allowing for collaboration with local operators who better understand the market [11] - Historical examples, such as McDonald's and KFC, show that divesting to local management can lead to significant growth in store numbers and improved market performance [11]

天眼查App显示，近日，邵阳市双清区财富自由咖啡店（个体工商户）成立，法定代表人为王洁，注册 资本1万人民币，经营范围为许可项目：酒类经营；食品销售；餐饮服务。（依法须经批准的项目，经 相关部门批准后方可开展经营活动，具体经营项目以相关部门批准文件或许可证件为准）一般项目：保 健食品（预包装）销售；互联网销售（除销售需要许可的商品）；外卖递送服务。（除依法须经批准的 项目外，凭营业执照依法自主开展经营活动）。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The core growth driver for Jiumaojiu (09922) is the accelerated deployment of the Taier "5.0 Fresh Model," entering a phase of expansion and store openings [1] Financial Performance - The company has raised its net profit forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 to 150 million, 204 million, and 242 million respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 15.2, 11.2, and 9.4 times [1] - The target price is set at 2.24 HKD based on a 14 times PE for 2026, maintaining a "Buy" rating [1] Sales and Store Performance - In Q3, Taier's same-store average daily sales decreased by 9.3% year-on-year, a significant improvement from the 19.0% decline in the first half of the year, marking three consecutive quarters of improvement [1] - Same-store sales in key cities like Beijing and Shanghai achieved positive year-on-year growth in Q3, indicating effective store model optimization and regional strategy adjustments [1] Restaurant Network - As of September 30, 2025, the total number of restaurants (including franchises) is 686, with Taier accounting for 530, Song Hotpot 71, Jiumaojiu 64, and others [2] - The average table turnover rate for Taier's self-operated stores is 3.3, with 3.2 in mainland China and 3.9 in other regions [2] Consumer Experience and Strategy - The average consumer spending at Taier's self-operated stores is 74 RMB, while Song Hotpot is 100 RMB, both showing stability over multiple quarters [2] - The company's strategy has shifted from short-term promotions to enhancing product strength and customer experience, gradually moving away from price competition [2] Model Implementation - The "5.0 Fresh Model" is being rapidly implemented, focusing on fresh ingredients like live fish, fresh chicken, and fresh beef, which has led to brand upgrades and improved customer experiences [2] - As of the end of September, 106 locations have adopted the "5.0 Fresh Model," with plans to accelerate promotion to exceed 200 locations by the end of the fourth quarter [2]

博裕投资斥资40亿美元拿下60%股权 【深圳商报讯】（记者 陈燕青）11月4日，星巴克公司宣布与另类资产管理公司博裕投资达成战略合 作，双方将成立合资企业，共同运营星巴克在中国市场的零售业务。 根据协议，博裕将持有合资企业至多60%股权，星巴克保留40%股权，并将继续作为星巴克品牌与知识 产权的所有者和授权方，向新成立的合资企业进行授权。基于约40亿美元（不计现金与债务）的企业价 值，博裕将获得其相应权益。 星巴克预计其中国零售业务的总价值将超过130亿美元，总价值由三部分构成：向博裕出让合资企业控 股权益所得、星巴克在合资企业中保留的权益价值，以及未来10年或更长时间内持续支付给星巴克的授 权经营收益。 星巴克中国表示，此次战略合作开启了星巴克深耕中国市场26年后的全新篇章。星巴克享誉全球的品牌 影响力、咖啡专业优势和以人为本的独特伙伴文化，与博裕对中国消费者的深度理解相结合，双方将携 手共同提升星巴克在中国市场的顾客体验，加速饮品及数字化创新，拓展新的城市和区域市场，并通过 更深入的本土化融合，加深与顾客的情感联结。新成立的合资企业将继续以上海为总部，管理并运营目 前遍布中国市场的8000家星巴克门店，双 ...

Group 1 - The event "2025 Purchase in China (Chongqing) Boutique Consumption Month and Chengdu-Chongqing Twin City Consumption Festival" was launched on November 4, focusing on the theme "Love for Bashu, Enjoy Global Shopping" [3] - The event will run until November 30 and aims to promote consumption integration and benefit measures in the Chengdu-Chongqing economic circle, leveraging the fifth anniversary of the region's development [3][5] - The event features a structure of "1+1+4+4+N," including one launch ceremony, one national economic conference, four themed exhibition areas, and numerous promotional activities [3] Group 2 - Key enterprises, associations, platforms, and financial institutions introduced major activities and policies during the launch, with a focus on enhancing consumption capabilities and creating a new benchmark for consumption [5] - The event will involve nearly 1 billion yuan in funding and around 200 activities, with over a thousand consumer benefit measures [5] - The "Boutique Shopping" sector will engage nearly 100 shopping centers and thousands of brand merchants, focusing on fashion consumption and large items like automobiles and home appliances [5][8] Group 3 - The "Exquisite Food" sector will collaborate with nearly 100 restaurants to conduct over 20 food consumption promotion activities throughout November [8] - The "Exciting Tourism" sector will partner with numerous tourist attractions to host over 20 cultural and tourism consumption activities, reinforcing Chongqing's status as an internationally recognized tourist destination [8] - The "Exquisite Performance" sector will feature over 10 events and exhibitions across various industries, including silver economy and pet economy, creating diverse consumption scenarios [9]

Economic Outlook - The economic growth momentum has weakened since Q3 2025, with GDP growth expected to decline to approximately 4.8% in Q3 and 4.5% in Q4, although the annual growth target of around 5% is still achievable due to strong performance in the first half of the year [1][7] - The report indicates that the main reasons for the weakening domestic demand include the reduction in the effectiveness of the trade-in subsidy policy and a significant decline in restaurant consumption, which aligns with previous analyses [3][5] Consumer Spending - From January to August, the total retail sales of consumer goods grew by 4.6% year-on-year, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points compared to the first half of the year [5] - The decline in retail sales growth is primarily attributed to the diminishing impact of the trade-in subsidy policy, with sales growth for home appliances and communication equipment dropping significantly [5] - Service consumption has outperformed goods consumption, contributing positively to overall consumption growth, with service retail sales increasing by 5.1% compared to 4.8% for goods [5][3] Real Estate Market - The real estate market has accelerated its downturn since Q3, with pressures on both supply and demand sides becoming more pronounced [6] - Demand has decreased due to a continuous decline in residents' willingness to purchase homes, while supply is increasing with a residential inventory of 400 million square meters, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 5.4% [6][8] Housing Supply Issues - The average housing supply interruption rate across the country has risen to 3.7%, up from 1.6% in 2022, with some third and fourth-tier cities exceeding 5% [8] - This represents a 130% increase in mortgage interruption rates over three years, highlighting significant challenges in the housing market [8] Future Economic Predictions - The report provides forecasts for various economic indicators for Q3 and Q4 of 2025, suggesting a cautious outlook for the macroeconomic environment if no new stimulus policies are introduced [10][7]

《科创板日报》4日讯，历时17天，AI大模型实时投资比赛"Alpha Arena"结果出炉，阿里千问Qwen以 22.32%的收益率夺得最后的冠军，Qwen和DeepSeek两款中国模型也成为唯二盈利的模型，而四大美国模型 均亏损，GPT-5亏损超62%垫底。 点评：阿里千问夺冠，AI竞技实力彰显。 1.AI大模型实时投资比赛"Alpha Arena"结果出炉：阿里千问Qwen夺冠 2.星巴克中国出售60%股权给博裕资本，后者4月刚买下"中国店王"SKP 11月4日，星巴克宣布与博裕投资达成战略合作，双方将成立合资企业，共同运营星巴克在中国市场的零售 业务。博裕将持有合资企业至多60%股权，星巴克保留40%股权，并将继续作为星巴克品牌与知识产权的所 有者和授权方，向新成立的合资企业进行授权。 点评：资本运作频繁，零售格局重塑。 3.李家超：香港前10月IPO募资额排名全球第一 11月4日，2025年国际金融领袖投资峰会举行。香港特区行政长官李家超表示，今年香港股票市场平均每日 交易额超过320亿美元，较去年翻一番。今年前10个月香港有80个IPO募资，总金额超260亿美元，IPO募资 金额排名全球第一。 4. ...

天眼查App显示，近日，于都县满分咖啡店（个体工商户）成立，法定代表人为张桂秀，注册资本5万 人民币，经营范围为许可项目：食品销售，烟草制品零售，酒类经营，餐饮服务，小餐饮、小食杂、食 品小作坊经营（依法须经批准的项目，经相关部门批准后在许可有效期内方可开展经营活动，具体经营 项目和许可期限以相关部门批准文件或许可证件为准）一般项目：食品互联网销售（仅销售预包装食 品），食品销售（仅销售预包装食品）（除依法须经批准的项目外，凭营业执照依法自主开展经营活 动）。 ...