Core Insights - Shanghai's consumer market experienced significant growth during the Spring Festival, with total online and offline consumption reaching 60.35 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12.8% [2] - The tourism sector in Shanghai saw a rise in visitors and spending, with 21.67 million tourists and a total tourism consumption of 25.614 billion yuan, marking a 20.9% increase [4] Consumer Market Performance - Online consumption amounted to 23.8 billion yuan, growing by 8.9%, while offline consumption reached 36.55 billion yuan, increasing by 15.4% [2] - The tax refund sales for outbound tourists exceeded 80 million yuan, reflecting a 150% increase, with significant contributions from tourists from Russia, South Korea, and the United States [2] - Major shopping districts integrated resources to create a festive atmosphere, generating 4.78 billion yuan in sales, a 12% increase, with an average daily foot traffic of 3.19 million, up by 15.8% [2] Restaurant and Food Sector - Restaurant consumption in Shanghai surged by 15.2%, with 567 merchants offering 1,136 curated meal packages, and 80% of merchants reporting revenue growth [3] - Online food delivery services saw a 36.7% increase in dining revenue and a 47.4% rise in order volume for participating merchants [3] - The introduction of new subsidy measures for home appliances and automobiles contributed to 299 million yuan in sales during the festival period [3] Cultural and Tourism Activities - Over 2,570 cultural and tourism activities were launched, attracting 21.67 million visitors and achieving a total tourism consumption of 25.614 billion yuan [4] - The average hotel occupancy rate reached 50.6%, an increase of 3.1 percentage points year-on-year [4] - Various cultural venues and exhibitions became popular destinations, with significant events like the "Spring Wind Qiji: Year of the Horse Zodiac Exhibition" and the reopening of the Shanghai Science and Technology Museum [4] Night Economy and Local Events - Shanghai's night economy was boosted by a series of light shows and cultural events, enhancing the festive atmosphere across the city [5][6] - Local districts organized unique cultural tourism activities, with Baoshan district seeing a 33.78% increase in visitor numbers at A-level scenic spots [8] Transportation and Travel Trends - The peak return flow of passengers on February 23 saw approximately 904,000 arrivals at Shanghai's major train stations, setting a new record [9] - Additional train services and extended metro operations were implemented to accommodate the high volume of returning travelers [9]

Core Viewpoint - Cathay Securities maintains a "Buy" rating for Haidilao (06862), predicting revenue growth from 431.83 billion RMB in 2025 to 493.73 billion RMB in 2027, with net profit increasing from 40.38 billion RMB to 50.24 billion RMB during the same period, and sets a target market value of 112.8 billion HKD and a target price of 20.23 HKD for 2026 [1][2]. Group 1 - The reappointment of founder Zhang Yong as CEO is expected to enhance employee motivation, improve management efficiency, and facilitate effective communication [2]. - Haidilao has undergone various phases since its IPO, including rapid expansion and strategic adjustments, aligning management changes with the company's development stages [2]. Group 2 - The single-store model shows optimization flexibility, with potential for increased profitability as table turnover rates improve; current breakeven turnover is below 2.5 times per day, with profitability increasing significantly at higher turnover rates [3]. - The company has over 1,800 potential locations for its main brand, with a franchise model aiding expansion into lower-tier markets [3]. Group 3 - The "Pomegranate Plan" is being steadily implemented, aimed at fostering new restaurant brands and driving innovation in food services; as of June 30, 2025, the company operates 14 restaurant brands with a total of 126 locations [4]. - In the first half of 2025, the new "Yuanqing Barbecue" brand opened 46 locations, contributing to a revenue of 5.97 billion RMB, reflecting a 227% year-on-year increase [4].

Core Viewpoint - Cathay Securities maintains a "Buy" rating for Haidilao (06862), predicting revenue growth from 431.83 billion RMB in 2025 to 493.73 billion RMB in 2027, with net profit increasing from 40.38 billion RMB to 50.24 billion RMB during the same period, and sets a target market value of 112.8 billion HKD and a target price of 20.23 HKD for 2026 [1] Group 1 - The reappointment of founder Zhang Yong as CEO is expected to enhance employee motivation and improve management efficiency [2] - Haidilao has undergone various phases since its IPO, including rapid expansion and strategic adjustments, aligning management changes with the company's development stages [2] Group 2 - The single-store model shows optimization flexibility, with potential for increased store openings under the main brand, as the company estimates over 1,800 new stores can be opened domestically [3] - Improved consumer demand could lead to higher table turnover rates, with profitability increasing as turnover rates rise [3] Group 3 - The "Pomegranate Plan" is being steadily implemented, aiming to incubate and develop new restaurant brands, with 14 additional brands operating 126 restaurants as of June 30, 2025 [4] - The new brand "Yuanqing Barbecue" opened 46 locations in the first half of 2025, contributing to a revenue increase of 5.97 billion RMB, up 227% year-on-year [4]

Core Insights - The consumption market in Hangzhou experienced a total amount of 177.49 billion yuan during the Spring Festival, marking a year-on-year growth of 7.6% [1] - The retail sector contributed 97.99 billion yuan with an 8.7% increase, while the catering sector saw a significant rise of 15.0% with 38.45 billion yuan in sales [1] Consumption Trends - New categories of products such as green, smart, and health-related items showed remarkable sales growth, becoming the "new three items" of this year's Spring Festival consumption market [2] - ROKID smart glasses sales surged by 580%, and Xiaomi AI home appliances increased by 10.8% [2] - The "Hangzhou Good Products" initiative saw government subsidies of 155.38 million yuan, leading to over 454.7 million yuan in sales [2] Policy Impact - The "old-for-new" policy has significantly boosted large-scale consumption, with over 14,000 transactions and sales exceeding 62 million yuan in the Binjiang District alone during the holiday [3] - The sales volume for new energy vehicles in the Xiaoshan District reached 150 million yuan, doubling compared to the previous year [3] Cultural and Tourism Integration - Various districts in Hangzhou organized events that attracted significant visitor numbers, such as the "Horse Power Full Open" event, which saw daily attendance exceeding 20,000, a growth of over 700% [3] - The integration of cultural and tourism elements has enhanced the overall consumer experience, with notable increases in visitor numbers across various attractions [3] External Consumption Growth - The "Come to Hangzhou for the New Year" campaign, in collaboration with platforms like Alipay and Xiaohongshu, generated 31.67 billion yuan in external consumption, reflecting a 27.3% increase [4] - The catering sector benefited from family gatherings and tourism, with some restaurants reporting over 25% growth in revenue [4] Technological Advancements - The use of AI technology during the Spring Festival allowed over 130 million people to experience AI shopping for the first time, resulting in a significant increase in orders across various categories [4] - The adoption of voice command ordering has rapidly gained popularity, enhancing the shopping experience during the holiday season [4]

Core Insights - The Chinese consumer market showed strong vitality during the recent Spring Festival, with significant increases in retail and dining sales, driven by government policies and promotional activities [4][5][6] Group 1: Consumer Spending Trends - During the first four days of the Spring Festival, the average daily sales of key retail and catering enterprises increased by 8.6% compared to the same period in 2025 [4] - The government allocated 625 billion yuan for consumer goods replacement subsidies, with 20.5 billion yuan distributed through vouchers and subsidies directly to consumers [5][6] - The "2026 Spring Festival Special Event" included various activities across six categories, enhancing consumer engagement and spending [5] Group 2: Travel and Tourism Insights - The travel market peaked during the Spring Festival, with a 38% increase in air travel compared to the previous year [7] - Popular destinations included Shantou, Fuzhou, and Beijing, with hotel bookings in some areas increasing by over 80% [7][8] - The demand for ice and snow tourism surged, with popular destinations including Harbin and Zhangjiakou [7] Group 3: New Consumption Patterns - New consumption scenarios and business models emerged during the Spring Festival, with technology enhancing traditional cultural experiences [9] - The use of AI in travel planning became a new trend, with a significant portion of inquiries related to transportation and local customs [9] - Cross-border travel saw a notable increase, with long-haul outbound travel products experiencing significant booking growth [10]

当姑苏古城的灯笼次第点亮，平江路上的评弹弦索伴着马蹄声脆，2026年马年新春的苏州，大街小 巷不仅弥漫着满满的年味，更涌动着火热的消费热潮。 今年春节假期，全市板块联动、部门协同，围绕过年潮购、苏式年味、文旅休闲、民俗体验等内 容，以"三新"消费试点、有奖发票试点和消费品以旧换新政策赋能，策划举办重点促消费活动超200 场。节日期间，全市各大商超、商业街区活力彰显、人流如织，监测数据显示，全市100家重点商贸企 业春节假期预计实现销售额19.53亿元，同比增长5.8%。 丰富活动 引爆住餐消费 传统年味之外，新潮玩法为苏州消费市场注入新活力。阳澄半岛乐园的"新春阳澄狂欢季"，华东首 个赛博朋克机车特技秀"绝境狂飙"燃爆现场，假期初段接待游客、营业收入同比分别增长33.3%和 20.4%。"苏品苏货"也在这个春节加速出圈。十全街精品店、华贸中心甄选店同步开业，推出的沉浸式 体验活动让市民眼前一亮；轨交精选店铺的"任意消费赠福字"活动，让出行路上也充满年味。 政策红包 市民"敢买愿换" "扫发票中了88元，回家可以去超市再买一箱牛奶了。"在比斯特苏州购物村买完衣服的王彩菲笑着 说。这个春节，有奖发票试点成了全城热 ...

Investment Rating - The report provides a positive investment outlook for the social services industry, particularly highlighting strong cyclical attributes and pricing elasticity in the duty-free and hotel sectors [4]. Core Insights - The optimization of holiday arrangements has led to a recovery in economic activity, with significant growth in duty-free sales and overall consumer spending during the 2026 Spring Festival [4]. - The report emphasizes the rebound in high-end consumption and the introduction of new product categories, supported by favorable policies, particularly in Hainan and Sanya [4]. - Increased holiday duration and promotional activities have resulted in robust growth in domestic tourism and dining sectors, with notable increases in visitor numbers and spending [4]. - Predictions indicate a record high in inbound and outbound travel during the holiday period, with Macau's tourism market showing continued strength [4]. Summary by Sections Duty-Free Sales - Hainan's duty-free sales reached 970 million yuan in the first four days of the Spring Festival, a year-on-year increase of 16% [4]. - Sanya's cumulative sales in February increased by 19% year-on-year, with daily sales averaging 250 million yuan during peak days [4]. - Zhuhai's duty-free sales saw a 40% year-on-year increase, driven by new product categories like gold jewelry and Apple products [4]. Domestic Tourism - A total of 1.502 million visitors were received at A-level scenic spots in Hubei during the first six days of the holiday, a 12.41% increase year-on-year [4]. - Key scenic areas such as Jiuhua Mountain and Emei Mountain reached saturation in visitor numbers, indicating a high level of consumer engagement in cultural tourism [4]. - National retail and dining enterprises reported an average daily sales increase of 8.6% during the first four days of the holiday [4]. Travel Trends - The average daily inbound and outbound travelers during the holiday are expected to exceed 2.05 million, a 14.1% increase from the previous year [4]. - Data from the Macau Tourism Bureau indicates a 10% year-on-year increase in daily visitors from the mainland during the holiday [4]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends investing in duty-free and hotel sectors with strong cyclical characteristics and pricing flexibility, specifically mentioning China Duty Free Group, ShouLai Hotel, and Jin Jiang Hotels [4]. - In the dining sector, it suggests focusing on high-frequency and delivery-oriented fast-food and tea brands, recommending Gu Ming, Hu Shang A Yi, and Mi Xue Group [4]. - Additionally, it highlights service consumption platform companies such as Damai Entertainment, Tongcheng Travel, and Ctrip Group [4].

Core Insights - Wuhan's retail sales during the Spring Festival reached 22.811 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 26.73% [1] - The number of transactions was 47.6928 million, up 17.93% year-on-year, while the number of consumers reached 42.9656 million, increasing by 17.17% [1] Group 1: Consumption Trends - Key categories such as sports goods, electronic products, gift items, clothing, and home appliances saw significant growth, with sports goods up 196.6%, electronics up 89.18%, gifts up 56.48%, clothing up 36.65%, and home appliances up 31.25% [2] - The consumption structure indicates a clear trend towards quality and upgraded consumption, with steady growth in maternal and infant products, jewelry, and food and beverages [2] Group 2: Consumer Engagement Initiatives - The launch of a prize invoice pilot program integrated with commercial scenarios further stimulated consumer enthusiasm, exemplified by a customer winning 10 yuan after purchasing goods worth 106 yuan [3] - Innovative measures to activate cultural and tourism consumption included landmark renovations and community engagement, attracting a large number of tourists and boosting the restaurant market [2]

Consumption Insights - The average daily sales of key retail and catering enterprises during the first four days of the Spring Festival increased by 8.6% year-on-year, significantly higher than last year's 4.1% for the entire Spring Festival period[6] - The expected year-on-year growth rate of social retail sales for January-February 2026 is projected to be between 5% and 2.5%, a notable recovery from around 1% at the end of last year[13] - The contribution of third- and fourth-tier cities to the Spring Festival box office rose to 54.1%, up from a previous high of 52.8% in 2024[10] Travel and Tourism Trends - The number of cross-regional personnel movements during the first 20 days of the Spring Festival reached 5.08 billion, marking a historical high and a 5.5% increase from the previous year[16] - Domestic flight operations during the Spring Festival increased by 4.7% compared to the same period in 2025, while international flights rose by 3.4%[27] Movie and Entertainment Sector - The total box office for the Spring Festival reached only 4.36 billion yuan, compared to an average of 6.1 billion yuan from 2021 to 2025, indicating a decline in viewer turnout[29] - The number of movie screenings increased by 10.5% compared to last year, yet attendance dropped by 34.7%[29] Replacement and Real Estate Market - The "trade-in" program for consumer goods generated sales of 198.02 billion yuan, with daily sales averaging 3.96 billion yuan, a significant decrease from 7.12 billion yuan in 2025[35] - New housing transaction area in 30 major cities during the Spring Festival period increased by approximately 2.6% compared to the same period in 2025, although overall performance remains weak[42]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the social services sector, indicating expected performance above the market index by over 10% [4][32]. Core Insights - The consumer services sector saw an increase of 0.68% during the reporting period, outperforming the market by 1.65 percentage points [1][13]. - Key stocks that performed well include Yum China (+12.34%), Melco International Development (+11.35%), and H World Group (+8.99%) [1][14]. - The report highlights the progress in hotel REITs, with Jin Jiang Hotels and H World Group's commercial real estate REITs being accepted by exchanges, which is expected to revitalize hotel assets [2][18]. - The new duty-free shops at Beijing Capital International Airport have opened, marking a significant upgrade in the commercial offerings at the airport [2][19]. - The travel and tourism market is experiencing heightened interest ahead of the longest Spring Festival holiday, with cultural destinations and visa-free countries becoming popular search topics [2][20]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The consumer services sector outperformed the market, with a 0.68% increase compared to a 0.98% decline in the CSI 300 index during the same period [1][13]. Industry and Company Dynamics - Jin Jiang Hotels and H World Group's REITs have been accepted for trading, which is expected to enhance hotel asset liquidity [2][18]. - The new duty-free shops at Beijing Capital International Airport have opened, enhancing the shopping experience for travelers [2][19]. - The travel market is seeing increased interest, with a 253% rise in searches for Spring Festival travel destinations [2][20]. Stock Holdings - Notable increases in holdings for key stocks include Haidilao (+1.80% to 27.66%) and China Oriental Education (+1.17% to 33.04%) during the reporting period [3][29]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests maintaining an "Outperform" rating and recommends stocks such as China Duty Free Group, Haidilao, H World Group, and China Oriental Education for investment [4][32].