周一（2月9日），算力+AI应用双双爆发，创业板人工智能全天领涨全市场！算力方面，光模块CPO持 续猛攻，天孚通信、光库科技大涨超17%创新高，IDC算力租赁表现亮眼，光环新网领涨超10%，首都 在线、铜牛信息、奥飞数据等多股涨超7%；AI应用方面，中文在线20CM涨停，东方国信涨超16%。 热门ETF方面，双线布局"算力+AI应用"的创业板人工智能ETF（159363）跳空收复所有均线，场内暴 涨6.53%，成功反包前三日跌幅，单日放量成交9.25亿元。 综合市场信息来看，当前创业板人工智能正迎三大驱动： 驱动一：海外云巨头加码算力，光模块CPO有望持续受益！ 风险提示：创业板人工智能ETF华宝被动跟踪创业板人工智能指数，该指数基日为2018.12.28，发布日 期为2024.7.11，创业板人工智能指数2021-2025年年度涨跌幅分别为：17.57%、-34.52%、47.83%、 38.44%、106.35%。指数成份股构成根据该指数编制规则适时调整，其回测历史业绩不预示指数未来表 现。文中指数成份股仅作展示，个股描述不作为任何形式的投资建议，也不代表管理人旗下任何基金的 持仓信息和交易动向。基金管理 ...

根据多家预告透露业绩变动原因，主要受益于终端客户对算力基础设施的强劲投入，市场需求快速增长带动产品出货量 提升。 2月9日，A股市场迎来强势开局，三大指数全线飘红。截至收盘，上证指数涨1.41%，深成指涨2.17%，创业板指涨 2.98%，沪深两市成交额2.25万亿。其中，光模块（CPO）板块成为当日最大亮点，以"易中天"为代表的板块内龙头个股 集体爆发，交易额位列全部A股前三名，其中，天孚通信高开高走，收盘大涨17.76%。此外，杰普特收获20cm涨停，光 库科技，炬光科技、蘅东光、德科立、仕佳光子等多股均呈现较好的增长态势。 | 序号 代码 | | | ● | 最新 | 涨幅% | 成交额↓ | 年初至今涨幅% | 总市值 市盈率(TTM) | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1 | 300308 | 中际旭创 | t | 565.99 | 4.81 | 206亿 | -7.21 | 6289 Z | 73.55 | | 2 | 300502 | 新易盛 | 1 | 390.15 | 7.17 | 183亿 ...

Core Insights - The article discusses the "crowding degree" indicator developed by the Xingsheng Strategy Team, which reflects the trading sentiment of popular sectors through four dimensions: volume, price, funds, and analyst forecasts. This indicator is used to quantitatively track market sentiment changes and has significant implications for short-term stock price movements [1][2][3]. Group 1: Market Sentiment Analysis - The crowding degree has shown a shift in major sectors, with some dividend and consumer sectors reaching high levels, while many popular themes have seen their crowding degree drop to moderate or even low levels [5][119]. - The TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications) sector shows varying crowding levels, with specific components like optical fiber and cable at a high level, while servers and computing devices are at a lower level [10][13][21][31][38]. Group 2: Sector-Specific Crowding Levels - In the manufacturing sector, the crowding degree for passenger vehicles and lithium batteries is low, while hydrogen energy is at a moderate high level [50][51][172]. - The financial and real estate sectors show a high crowding degree in real estate, while banks and insurance are at moderate high levels [213][216][217]. - The cyclical sector indicates a high crowding degree in coal and petrochemicals, with steel at a moderate high level [55][56][60][229].

1、行情 光伏概念开盘大幅反弹，协鑫集成4连板，协鑫能科2连板，金晶科技、杭萧钢构、西子洁能、亚玛顿、中利集团、TCL中环、拓日新能、双良 节能（炸）、赛伍技术（炸）等集体涨停； 今日A股迎来大幅反弹走势。 题材方面，传媒、短剧、游戏、影视板块早盘大幅高开，上海电影、横店影视（盘中炸）、博纳影业（盘中炸）、欢瑞世纪、风语筑、掌阅科 技、中文在线（20CM）、海看股份（20CM）、荣信文化（20CM）等集体一字开盘； 染料板块大涨，闰土股份、德美化工、海翔药业2连板，吉华集团、亚邦股份、福莱蒽特涨停； CPO概念早盘单边爆发，杰普特、天孚通信（炸）、光库科技（炸）上午集体20CM涨停，炬光科技、太辰光、仕佳光子、长芯博创、腾景科 技等涨超10%； 此外，算力、半导体、培育钻石等集体大涨。 截至收盘，沪指、深成指、创业板指分别收涨1.41%、2.17%、2.98%，市场超4600股上涨，700余股下跌。 2、AI应用 AI应用今日迎来集体大反弹。 不过今天的大涨到并非直接因为美股的推动，而是被字节周末发布的Seedance2.0视频生成模型所点燃。 Seedance2.0可根据情节自动规划分镜和运镜，还能同时接收 ...

Market Overview - A-shares experienced a strong rally on February 9, with all three major indices rising, and the Shanghai Composite Index reclaiming the 4100-point mark, closing up 1.41% [2] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets approached 2.3 trillion yuan, an increase of approximately 100 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [2] - Over 4600 stocks rose, with nearly 100 stocks hitting the daily limit, indicating a broad-based market rally [2] Investor Sentiment - The market's strong rebound ahead of the Spring Festival is seen as a "holiday gift" for investors, driven by optimism following a significant rise in U.S. tech stocks [4] - The trading volume remained robust, contrary to typical pre-holiday trends, suggesting increased investor willingness to enter the market rather than cashing out [5] - Major brokerages support the view of holding stocks over the holiday, citing historical trends where A-shares tend to rebound post-holiday [5] Sector Performance - Key sectors that led the gains included cultural media, photovoltaic equipment, glass fiber, internet services, communication equipment, electronic chemicals, minor metals, power equipment, and semiconductors [2] - The "CPO" trio of stocks (New Yisheng, Zhongji Xuchuang, and Tianfu Communication) saw significant increases, with Tianfu Communication hitting a historical high [8][9] Specific Stock Movements - Shenghe Resources, a prominent player in the rare earth sector, saw its stock price rise significantly, reflecting the volatility and investor interest in high-performing stocks [8] - The stock experienced fluctuations, with a notable increase of 10.01% on the day, indicating strong trading activity and investor engagement [7][8] Future Outlook - Analysts predict a more moderate and stable market trend post-holiday, with a focus on sectors with clear growth catalysts and performance certainty [6] - The photovoltaic sector is expected to see exponential growth driven by advancements in space solar power technology, with leading Chinese manufacturers likely to benefit from new opportunities [12]

2025年四季度末，光模块龙头中际旭创以1.28亿股持股总量、782.32亿元持股市值，首次超越宁德时代登顶主动权益基金第一大重仓股，1100 多只持仓基金的"抱团"态势一度成为市场焦点。但登顶仅月余，该股便开启回调模式，截至2月6日，年内累计下跌超10%，单日最大跌幅达 8.94%，多只重仓基金净值同步回撤超5%，再度引发市场对"基金第一重仓股魔咒"热议。 要客观研判"基金第一重仓股魔咒"这一市场现象，需依托长期、大样本的实证数据。基于Wind平台2003年至2025年共92个报告期的统计显示， 在成为第一重仓股后，39只登顶标的在后续3个月跑输沪深300指数，占92个报告期的42.39%；6个月、12个月跑输比例分别为45.65%、46.74%。 这一量化结果，为理性分析该现象的统计规律提供了客观依据。 | | | | 部分主动权益基金第一大重仓股登顶后的市场表现一览 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 主动权益基金第一大 | | 报告期归母净利 | 报告期后3个月相对于沪深 | 报告期后6个月相对于沪深300 | 报告期后12个月相对于沪 | | ...

今日盘间，硬科技板块迎来强势反弹，这一波上涨主要受多重政策利好催化。双创50ETF（588380）盘 中涨幅一度达到3.78%，截至当前的最新涨幅为3.67%。标的指数成分股中，天孚通信、芯原股份涨超 15%，新易盛、晶合集成涨超6%。 研究机构指出，AI应用落地催生算力需求爆发，光模块、PCB等产业链迎"业绩+估值"双击。随着中长 期资金加速入市，成长板块估值修复空间广阔。而双创50ETF（588380）作为覆盖双创板块的核心工 具，聚焦创业板和科创板的核心资产，精准捕捉人工智能、高端制造等新质生产力核心领域，具备长期 配置价值。 （文章来源：每日经济新闻） 消息面上，2月6日，工信部发布《国家算力互联互通节点建设工作方案》，明确加快算力基础设施建 设；上海亦提出"十五五"期间瞄准智能终端、商业航天等新赛道，全力培育万亿级产业增量，政策红利 持续向科技创新领域倾斜。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The A-share CPO concept stocks have collectively risen, with Tianfu Communication surging 17% to reach a historical high, indicating strong market interest in AI-related investments and the potential for growth in the optical module sector [1] Group 1: Stock Performance - Tianfu Communication's stock price increased by 17%, reaching a historical high [1] - New Yisheng rose over 7%, while Zhongji Xuchuang increased by over 5% [1] - Various AI ETFs, including those from Fuguo, Huaxia, Guotai, Hu'an, Huabao, Dacheng, and Southern, all saw gains exceeding 6% [1] Group 2: ETF Performance - Fuguo's AI ETF increased by 6.69% with a year-to-date return of 13.79% and an estimated scale of 35.19 billion [2] - Huaxia's AI ETF rose by 6.56% with a year-to-date return of 13.74% and an estimated scale of 17.74 billion [2] - Guotai's AI ETF saw a 6.59% increase with a year-to-date return of 13.88% and an estimated scale of 7.28 billion [2] Group 3: Market Dynamics - The optical module sector is experiencing a concentrated chip structure that requires time for optimization and self-correction [3] - Despite being a traditionally slow season, the demand for optical modules shows strong certainty and profitability growth, attracting significant investment [3] - The current concentration of chips indicates a large amount of short-term floating profit, which may lead to increased stock price volatility [3] Group 4: CPO Technology Outlook - There is a notable expectation gap regarding the rapid replacement of pluggable optical modules by CPO technology, primarily due to misinterpretations of developments by companies like Nvidia [4] - The industry fundamentals suggest that CPO and pluggable modules will coexist, with pluggable modules remaining the mainstream demand for the next few years [4] - Leading optical module manufacturers are not excluded from the CPO ecosystem and have established strong barriers in core areas like silicon photonics [4] Group 5: Future Demand Projections - Confidence in future demand for optical modules is increasing, with major CSPs like Amazon, Google, Microsoft, and Meta projected to spend a total of $660 billion on capital expenditures by 2026, a 60% year-on-year increase [5] - The demand for optical modules is expected to maintain a rapid upward trend due to the anticipated growth in AI-related capital investments and the ongoing evolution of chip technology [5] - The overall total cost of ownership (TCO) indicates that optical modules will remain competitive for an extended period, supporting continued growth in related companies' performance [5]

2月9日，正式进入春节前最后一周，A股主要指数悉数上扬，其中，CPO光模块表现尤为强势，天 孚通信猛涨超16%再创历史新高。热门ETF品种——创业板人工智能ETF（159363）早盘高开高走，大 涨超5.4%，持续逼近前期高点。 国信证券分析指出，国内互联网大厂陆续启动"红包大战"争抢大模型流量入口。在此背景下，算力 资源不单单成为军备竞赛的着力点，更是在各类AI应用试水过程中逐步成为"卖方型市场"，成为AI应用 的核心预算约束，算力链有望在强业绩支撑下重回科技投资主线。 创业板人工智能ETF（159363）基金经理曹旭辰最新观点表示，在市场波动加剧的背景下，ETF投 资应聚焦"简单题"——即选择产业趋势明确、业绩与估值同步向上的方向。他认为，当前全球流动性环 境依然宽松，具备产业趋势的资产更容易获得估值溢价，且这一溢价有望持续提升。曹旭辰指出，当 前，光模块属于"明确的产业趋势"，在流动性宽松环境下，其业绩和估值通道向上，容易出现估值溢 价，且溢价可能持续扩大。作为当前市场"重仓方向"之一，光模块具有产业趋势引领地位和短期（2-3 月）配套催化，预期将继续保持领跑。强预期、强现实、低估值，在市场震荡期，以光 ...

Market Performance - Overseas computing power recovery led to a rise of over 4% in the Communication ETF (515880) and the ChiNext AI ETF (159388) during trading today [1] Factors Driving the Increase - Recent US earnings reports indicate several key points: - Capital expenditures are accelerating, with Google projecting 2026 capital spending between $175 billion and $185 billion, nearly doubling year-on-year; Meta's full-year capital expenditure guidance is $115 billion to $135 billion, a 73% year-on-year increase; Amazon's guidance is $200 billion, a 53% increase year-on-year [2] - Microsoft did not provide full-year guidance but noted a seasonal quarter-on-quarter decline, likely due to factors like financing leases. The market previously expected a 42% growth in North American CSP capital expenditures for 2026, but recent earnings reports show capital expenditure growth significantly exceeding expectations [2] CPO Penetration and Market Sentiment - CPO penetration is exceeding expectations, but attention is needed on scale-up and scale-out dynamics. The consensus is that scale-up will dominate CPO, while scale-out remains led by pluggable optical modules. The domestic optical module leaders may secure some orders in the scale-up segment, indicating that CPO penetration in scale-up represents incremental growth rather than a replacement [3] - Market sentiment has rebounded from previous lows, with US markets recovering last Friday, influencing A-shares today. Both markets have faced issues related to funding and sentiment, with A-shares experiencing declining trading volumes since late January [3] Future Outlook - US earnings reports reaffirm the certainty of AI, with ongoing shortages in computing power. Google reported that Gemini 3.0 is the fastest model in its history, with over 750 million monthly active users for Gemini applications. Google also announced a partnership with Apple to develop the next-generation Apple foundational model. The management indicated that investments in AI infrastructure will gradually increase throughout the year, with a continued tight supply of computing power expected [4] - The focus remains on core segments like optical modules and servers, which are positioned at the heart of the global AI industry chain. With capital expenditures for 2026 significantly exceeding expectations, the outlook for optical modules and servers is strengthening, making Communication ETF (515880) and ChiNext AI ETF (159388) attractive for interested investors [4]