Market Overview - The A-share market showed a steady upward trend last week (November 3 to November 7), with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3997.56 points, up 1.08% [2] - Structural differentiation continues, with growth sectors performing poorly while value styles, particularly the CSI Dividend Index, rose by 2.23% [2] - The micro-cap stock index surged by 3.46%, indicating strong market activity, while the market is consolidating around the 4000-point mark [2][7] Industry Performance - The average increase of Wind's first-level industry indices was 0.76%, with energy, industrials, and utilities leading the performance, while healthcare, consumer discretionary, and information technology faced significant pressure [11] - High valuation sectors weakened, while low valuation sectors with improving conditions strengthened [11] Fund Issuance and Performance - A total of 41 funds were issued last week, including 21 equity funds, 9 mixed funds, 9 bond funds, and 2 QDII funds, with a total issuance of 26.5 billion units [16] - The Wind All Fund Index rose by 0.11%, with the ordinary equity fund index down by 0.06% and the mixed equity fund index up by 0.06% [6] Global Market Context - The Hang Seng Index was a standout performer, rising by 1.29%, while major global indices, including the NASDAQ, S&P 500, and Dow Jones, experienced declines [3] - Commodity markets showed significant divergence, with natural gas surging by 4.85% and iron ore dropping by 4.58% [3]

Group 1 - The semiconductor ETF declined by 2.34% on November 6, indicating a negative trend in the sector [1] - Global technology stock index ETF and consumer discretionary ETF also fell by over 2.3%, reflecting broader market weakness in technology and consumer sectors [1] - The technology industry ETF decreased by 2.01%, while the internet stock index ETF dropped by 1.99%, further highlighting the downturn in technology-related investments [1] Group 2 - In contrast, the energy sector ETF experienced a gain of 0.97%, suggesting a divergence in performance between energy and technology sectors [1]

Market Overview - Global markets experienced a decline, with the Hang Seng Index falling by 0.79% and the S&P 500 down by 1.17% [1][3] - The A-share market is in a correction phase since October 2, with a potential drop of 15%-20% expected [3] - Defensive sectors are seeing capital inflows, while materials, healthcare, and consumer discretionary sectors are leading declines in Hong Kong stocks [3] Sector Performance - The Hang Seng Financial Index rose by 0.26%, while the Hang Seng Industrial and Commercial Index fell by 1.44% [2] - High-dividend sectors such as telecommunications and utilities are performing well amidst market volatility [3] Company Insights - Luxshare Precision (002475 CH) has its target price raised to 75.55 RMB, reflecting strong synergy from the Apple upgrade cycle and ODM integration [5] - The expected compound annual growth rate for Luxshare's earnings from FY25-27 is projected at 27%, driven by growth in consumer electronics, automotive, and communication sectors [5] Economic Indicators - The UK government is focusing on reducing inflation and managing national debt, hinting at potential tax increases in the upcoming budget [3] - The U.S. job vacancies have dropped to the lowest level since April 2021, indicating a tightening labor market [4]

Group 1 - The U.S. stock market has experienced significant growth over the past three years, with the S&P 500 index rising by 78.2% and the Nasdaq index by 126.7% from 2023 to October 2025. The MAG7 companies (Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Google, Meta, Tesla, Nvidia) account for over 30% of the S&P 500's total market capitalization and contributed 48% of the market expansion since 2023 [1][6][7]. - There are concerns about a potential tech bubble, as the current market concentration resembles the tech bubble of 2000. The price-to-earnings (PE) ratio is nearing its highest level since 1990, and the leverage ratio in the market has increased to 1.7%, surpassing the 1.5% level seen during the 2000 internet bubble [2][3][23]. - The K-shaped economic recovery is evident, with high-income households seeing a net worth share of 63.0% by Q2 2025, up 1.5 percentage points from Q4 2022. Meanwhile, traditional sectors have not fully recovered to pre-pandemic trends [7][8]. Group 2 - The Federal Reserve is expected to continue its accommodative monetary policy into the first half of 2026, with interest rates potentially dropping to the 3.00-3.25% range. However, the scope for further easing is limited, and historical trends suggest that the S&P 500 typically performs poorly in the months leading up to the end of a rate-cutting cycle [2][29]. - Capital expenditures (CAPEX) for MAG7 companies are projected to slow significantly, from a growth rate of 48.8% in 2025 to 18.8% in 2026, and further down to 6.0% in 2027. The future performance of tech stocks will depend on the successful deployment of AI applications and technological breakthroughs [3][34]. - The U.S. economy is expected to show resilience, with real GDP growth projected to rebound to 2.3% in 2026, supported by reduced trade policy uncertainty and accommodative fiscal and monetary policies [3][34]. Group 3 - Investment strategies for 2026 should balance liquidity, fundamentals, and sector structure, focusing on tech leadership in the first half and gradually increasing exposure to cyclical sectors in the latter half of the year [4][45]. - Global diversification is recommended, with high allocation value in developed markets like Germany and Switzerland, and emerging markets such as Saudi Arabia, South Korea, and India [5][47]. - Historical data indicates that after the end of a rate-cutting cycle, sectors like information technology, consumer discretionary, energy, and real estate tend to perform well, making them attractive for investment [5][48].

Market Performance - Global indices mostly rose last week, with MSCI Global up by 0.6%, MSCI Developed Markets up by 0.6%, and MSCI Emerging Markets up by 0.9% [7][31] - Among developed markets, Nikkei 225 had the strongest performance with a gain of 6.3%, while the Australian S&P 200 was the weakest, down by 1.5% [7][31] - In emerging markets, the Mexican MXX index performed best with a rise of 2.7%, while the Hang Seng Index was the worst performer, down by 1.0% [7][31] Trading Sentiment - Global trading volume generally improved, with North American holdings index reaching a historical high [21] - The trading volume for major indices such as the Shanghai Composite, S&P 500, and Nikkei 225 saw fluctuations, with the Shanghai Composite and Hang Seng Index experiencing declines [21][27] - Investor sentiment in Hong Kong improved but remained at a historical low, while sentiment in the US was at a historical high [21][28] Fundamental Analysis - Earnings expectations for US tech and consumer discretionary sectors were significantly revised upwards during the earnings season [63] - The S&P 500's 2025 EPS earnings expectation was adjusted from 269 to 270, with the technology sector seeing the largest upward revision of +2.4 [63][64] - In the Hong Kong market, the Hang Seng Index's 2025 EPS earnings expectation was revised from 2062 to 2066, with the materials sector seeing the largest increase [63][64] Economic Outlook - Major market sentiment indicators showed a rebound, with the Citigroup Economic Surprise Index for the US rising due to the Fed's rate cut and improved earnings from tech giants [7][63] - The European Economic Surprise Index also increased, supported by stable ECB rates and a temporary easing of political tensions in France [7][63] - The Chinese Economic Surprise Index rose, bolstered by positive Q3 data and favorable policies [7][63] Capital Flows - The Federal Reserve cut rates as expected, but there were hawkish signals regarding future cuts [52] - As of October 31, market expectations indicated the Fed would cut rates 0.68 times by year-end, a decrease from the previous week [52][53] - Global liquidity trends showed significant inflows into the US, China, India, Japan, and South Korea, with Hong Kong seeing substantial inflows through the Stock Connect program [58][62]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that the Hong Kong stock market is experiencing a temporary adjustment but is expected to rebound, presenting a good opportunity for investment as the economic fundamentals remain stable and resilient [1] - In October, the Hong Kong stock market indices experienced a decline due to external factors such as tariffs, with the Hang Seng Technology Index falling by 8.6%, the Hang Seng Index by 3.5%, the Hang Seng Composite Index by 3.9%, and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index by 4.0% [1] - The performance of various sectors in October showed that utilities, finance, and materials sectors performed relatively well, while healthcare, information technology, and consumer staples lagged behind [1] Group 2 - The AH share premium index saw a slight recovery, rising to 120 by October 31, up 2.2% from 117 at the end of September, indicating it is at a historically low level since 2016 [2] Group 3 - The valuation levels of major Hong Kong stock indices slightly decreased, with the Hang Seng Index PE at 11.7, the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index PE at 10.5, and the Hang Seng Technology Index PE at 22.9, all indicating low historical valuation levels [3] - Specific sectors such as utilities, consumer discretionary, and consumer staples are still at relatively low valuation levels, with the utilities index PE at 12.3, consumer discretionary at 22.8, and consumer staples at 23.8, reflecting their respective historical percentiles [3] Group 4 - Foreign capital outflow from the Hong Kong market has slowed down, with a net outflow of 669 million HKD in October, while southbound funds continue to flow significantly into the market, with a cumulative inflow exceeding 1.1 trillion RMB for the year [4] - In October, the net inflow of southbound funds reached 849 million RMB, contributing to a total cumulative inflow of 11.691 billion RMB for the year, marking a new high in recent years [4]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is experiencing a phase of oscillation and upward trend, with a shift towards dividend stocks and sectors with strong price increase certainty, such as non-ferrous metals, supported by recent US-China trade negotiations [2] Industry Performance Summary 1) Energy and Basic Materials - The Federal Reserve's interest rate cut has led to a continued rise in gold and industrial metal prices, with coal prices rebounding due to increased demand for the heating season and production cuts. In October, prices for thermal coal, coking coal, coking, and iron ore rose by 10%, 14%, 10%, and 3% respectively [3][10] - Coal production has seen a year-on-year decline of 3.2% in September, maintaining negative growth for three consecutive months, while coal inventory remains historically high at 710 million tons [10] 2) Industrial Products - The energy transition is supporting demand for electrical equipment, with steady growth in the photovoltaic industry. In September, excavator domestic sales grew by 22% year-on-year, and new energy vehicle sales increased by 25% [4] - The price increase pace in the photovoltaic supply chain has slowed, with polysilicon and solar cell prices decreasing by 0.6% and 3% month-on-month [4] 3) Consumer Goods - Domestic demand for home appliances continues to slow, with September sales for washing machines, refrigerators, and air conditioners down by 16%, 26%, and 21% year-on-year respectively. The liquor industry is in a supply clearing phase, with the wholesale price of Feitian Moutai down by 6% year-on-year [5] - The food sector shows mixed performance, with prices for pork, chicken, and eggs declining, while vegetable prices have risen [5] 4) Technology - The AI industry chain is experiencing high prosperity, with strong overseas demand for AI computing driving sales of Chinese communication equipment. The net profit growth rates for software and services, computer equipment, communication equipment, and semiconductors reached 161%, 45%, 25%, and 33% respectively [6] - The gaming sector remains robust, with 166 game licenses issued in October, maintaining a high level [6] 5) Financials - The banking sector's high dividend attributes are attracting medium to long-term capital allocation, with insurance premiums growing by 9% year-on-year in September. The average daily trading volume of A-shares has slightly decreased to 2.2 trillion yuan [6] - The stock market sentiment remains high, with a significant increase in margin trading balances reaching a historical high of approximately 2.5 trillion yuan [6] 6) Real Estate - The real estate market is still in a bottoming phase, with October sales area in 30 major cities down by 27% year-on-year. The price index for new and second-hand residential properties has decreased by 2.7% and 5.2% respectively [7] - The industry is under pressure, with a focus on policy support and demand improvement [7] Investment Recommendations - Focus on sectors such as AI computing, communication equipment, semiconductors, and innovative pharmaceuticals, which are expected to remain attractive until a significant change in industry prosperity occurs [7] - Non-ferrous metals are likely to benefit from the global monetary order reconstruction, while export growth remains strong, enhancing profit margins for companies in engineering machinery, electrical equipment, and white goods [7]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market in October showed a mixed performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 1.85%, while the Shenzhen Component Index and the ChiNext Index fell by 1.1% and 1.56% respectively. Brokerages suggest a balanced allocation strategy to navigate short-term volatility [1] Group 1: Stock Recommendations - Multiple brokerages have released their investment portfolios for November, covering sectors such as materials, information technology, and consumer goods [1] - Notable stocks recommended by various brokerages include Huadian Technology, Industrial Fulian, Yun Aluminum, and others, with some stocks receiving multiple recommendations [2][4] - Among the stocks, Zhongji Xuchuang had the highest increase in October, rising over 17%, while Top Group experienced the largest decline, dropping over 8.9% [4] Group 2: Industry Preferences - Brokerages recommend focusing on sectors such as non-ferrous metals, brokerage firms, and pharmaceuticals, anticipating increased market volatility [6] - Suggestions include prioritizing low-volatility assets and considering investments in sectors like coal, telecommunications, and electricity, which are seen as having dividend attributes [6] - East China Securities highlights three main investment lines: technology, strategic emerging industries, and opportunities arising from increased investment expectations in the fourth quarter [7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a cautious stance on the consumer sector, particularly essential consumer goods, due to ongoing economic pressures and declining consumer confidence [4][58]. Core Insights - Consumer confidence continues to decline, with the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index dropping to 53.6 in October from 55.1 in September, marking the third consecutive month of decline [1][7]. - Inflation appears to be stabilizing, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) showing a year-on-year increase of 3.0% in September, while core CPI also increased by 3.0% [9][12]. - The labor market shows signs of weakness, with ADP reporting a decrease of 32,000 jobs in September and job openings falling to 7.227 million [13][17]. - The essential consumer goods sector is experiencing mixed performance, with alcohol prices rebounding moderately while food and beverage inflation shows significant divergence across categories [24][28]. Summary by Sections Macroeconomic Overview - Consumer confidence is declining, with the confidence index at 53.6 in October, down from 55.1 in September [1][7]. - Inflation is stabilizing, with September CPI at 3.0% year-on-year and core CPI also at 3.0% [9][12]. - The labor market is weak, with a decrease of 32,000 jobs reported by ADP in September [13][17]. - Credit data shows a decrease in revolving credit by $5.958 billion in August, indicating cautious consumer borrowing [19]. Essential Consumer Goods - Alcohol prices have shown a moderate rebound, driven by strong recovery in spirits prices, while wine prices continue to decline [24][28]. - The food and beverage sector shows significant inflation divergence, with tobacco CPI above 5.0% and dairy CPI remaining weak [28][55]. Stock Market Performance - The discretionary consumer goods sector outperformed, closing up 5.8%, while essential consumer goods closed down 1.4% [57]. - Essential consumer goods ETF saw a net inflow of $670 million, reflecting rising investor confidence [57][35]. Investment Recommendations - The report advises maintaining caution in the consumer sector, focusing on essential consumer goods due to economic uncertainties and declining consumer confidence [4][58].

Core Viewpoint - Zhang Kun, a prominent fund manager at E Fund, has disclosed the top ten holdings of four funds as of Q3 2025, indicating a strategic shift in investment focus towards consumer and technology sectors, while also reflecting on the long-term growth potential of China's consumption market [1][9]. Fund Holdings Summary - The combined top ten holdings of Zhang Kun's four funds include Tencent Holdings, Alibaba-W, Kweichow Moutai, Luzhou Laojiao, Shanxi Fenjiu, Wuliangye, JD Health, Yum China, CNOOC, and Focus Media [1]. - The total market value of the top holdings is as follows: - Tencent Holdings: 56.18 billion - Alibaba-W: 56.16 billion - Kweichow Moutai: 51.36 billion - Luzhou Laojiao: 51.13 billion - Shanxi Fenjiu: 50.69 billion - Wuliangye: 50.64 billion - JD Health: 45.02 billion - Yum China: 28.69 billion - CNOOC: 27.60 billion - Focus Media: 26.44 billion [2]. Changes in Holdings - Compared to Q2 2025, the only change in the top ten holdings was the exit of SF Express, replaced by Focus Media [2]. - In Q3, Zhang Kun reduced his holdings in Tencent and Alibaba by 2.465 million shares and 17.392 million shares, respectively, likely due to price increases of 31% and 61% during the quarter [5]. - In the liquor sector, there was an increase in Kweichow Moutai by 48,100 shares, while reductions were made in Luzhou Laojiao, Shanxi Fenjiu, and Wuliangye [6]. Sector Analysis - In the consumer sector, there were reductions in Luzhou Laojiao and Shanxi Fenjiu, but increases in Kweichow Moutai and Wuliangye, indicating a positive outlook on premium liquor [7]. - The new investments in Yum China and Focus Media reflect expectations of recovery in the restaurant and advertising sectors [7]. - In the technology sector, there were reductions in Tencent and Alibaba across all funds, while new positions were taken in Google-A and reductions in ASML and TSMC, indicating a shift towards more globally competitive tech giants [8]. Long-term Outlook - The team believes that China's consumption growth is likely to outpace GDP growth, supported by a low consumer spending ratio relative to GDP compared to other major economies [9]. - The potential for a unified market of 1.4 billion people offers significant scale advantages for product development and sales [9]. - The current low valuation levels provide a safety margin for investments in the domestic consumption market, which is expected to remain fertile ground for long-term investment [9].