A-share Market Insights - The market is expected to transition from "consolidation" to "spring rally" as the year-end approaches, with high-quality A-share assets offering attractive value globally [1][2] - Key investment directions include: 1) long-term opportunities in technology growth assets, 2) cyclical sectors with strong pricing power driven by supply-demand imbalances, and 3) blue-chip assets favored by long-term institutional investors [2] Hong Kong Market Insights - The influx of southbound capital is accelerating, providing solid financial support for the Hong Kong market [2] - The easing of US-China trade tensions is likely to boost market risk appetite, while the anticipated December interest rate cut and balance sheet expansion by the Federal Reserve will enhance global liquidity, benefiting Hong Kong stocks [2] US Market Insights - Despite stable earnings projections for US stocks in 2025, valuation and market concentration have returned to historical highs, indicating potential for increased volatility [2] - Earnings growth in 2026 is expected to continue, driven by sustained AI demand, reduced tariff risks, and accommodative monetary and fiscal policies [2] - Investment strategies may focus on two main themes: 1) ongoing narratives in technology stocks, particularly in AI, and 2) recovery opportunities in cyclical sectors, especially in midstream manufacturing and essential consumer goods [2] Domestic Bond Market Insights - The domestic bond market is entering a phase characterized by "weak economic recovery, stable yet easing policies, and central bank caution against excessive moves" [3] - The central bank's commitment to maintaining stable interest rates will limit the downward movement of long-term rates, leading to a range-bound market [3] - Investors are advised to shift focus from capital gains to coupon income and liquidity management, while closely monitoring potential signals from the central bank regarding long-term yield guidance [3] Commodity Market Insights - The ongoing anti-involution policies warrant attention to the actual implementation of capacity reduction measures [4] - Oil prices are under short-term pressure due to geopolitical tensions easing and OPEC+ shifting towards supply expansion [4] - Industrial metals are expected to see demand recovery driven by improved global economic growth forecasts, with supply-side disruptions likely to reshape the supply-demand landscape [4] - Gold's monetary attributes may continue to be favorable amid ongoing government leverage, particularly in the US, where long-term deficit rates are challenging to reduce [4]

Group 1: Core Insights - The light industry manufacturing sector is expected to experience a recovery in 2026, driven by external macroeconomic stabilization and internal demand adjustments, although the recovery will show differentiation among companies [5][6] - Investment strategies should focus on growth-oriented companies that are expanding overseas, as well as on the supply-side changes in the paper packaging sector and new consumer brands showing marginal improvements [5][6] Group 2: Home Furnishing Sector - The home furnishing industry is currently facing a downturn, with ongoing pressures from consumption and housing handovers, and limited benefits from national subsidies [13][19] - The market environment is expected to remain stable in 2026, with a focus on individual company performance, as the sector is significantly influenced by consumer sentiment and real estate policies [34][40] - The expected decline in new housing completions in 2026 is projected at 21%, which will continue to impact demand for home furnishings [34][40] Group 3: Essential Consumer Goods - The essential consumer goods market is adapting to new dynamics, with established brands facing challenges from evolving channels and increased competition [52] - The growth potential in mature markets remains stable, but the overall consumption environment has weakened, leading to increased competition among leading brands [52][53] - New consumption trends are emerging from changes in consumer sentiment and technological innovations, which are reshaping market dynamics [52][53] Group 4: Light Industry Exports - The light industry export sector has shown strong growth among leading companies, despite fluctuations due to economic cycles and inventory levels [5][6] - The outlook for 2026 suggests continued growth for top companies, supported by stable macroeconomic conditions and ongoing trends such as capacity relocation and cost reduction [5][6] - The overall recovery in the light industry export sector is anticipated to stabilize, with a focus on expanding product categories and niche markets [5][6] Group 5: Paper Packaging Sector - The paper packaging sector is expected to see a gradual recovery, with stable pricing anticipated for cultural paper and improved profitability driven by demand from the consumer electronics and AI sectors [5][6] - The profitability of the paper industry is projected to stabilize, with key factors including supply-demand dynamics and cost efficiencies playing a crucial role [5][6] - Leading companies in the metal packaging sector are expected to benefit from increased market concentration and enhanced pricing power [5][6]

今年以来，港股在全球主要股市中表现突出，恒生指数等年内涨幅超过20%。不过，自10月中旬以来，港股市场进入调整阶段，波动有所加大，11月整体呈现震 荡走势，12月以来的调整幅度有所加大。 港股作为典型的离岸市场，其流动性受海外环境影响显著，而基本面则与内地经济紧密相连。相比基本面，流动性对港股行情的影响更为直接和迅速，其中科技类 资产对利率变化更为敏感。 除了流动性，估值优势、资产质量提升与市场生态重塑多重因素，也将促使港股估值修复。多家券商机构展望2026年港股行情时指出，随着港股基本面触底反弹， 叠加其依旧显著的估值折价，港股市场在2026年将迎来第二轮估值修复以及业绩进一步复苏的行情。 南向资金创纪录流入 2025年港股市场最显著的特征之一是南向资金的持续涌入，成为支撑港股今年整体表现较好的关键力量。 Wind数据显示，截至2025年12月15日，南向资金年内净买入额已达到1.39万亿港元，远超2024年全年水平，创下互联互通机制开通以来的新高。在此情况下，南向 资金通过港股通已累计净流入5.09万亿港元，距离5.10万亿港元关口只有一步之遥。 这一资金规模不仅为港股市场提供了充沛的流动性，更显著增强了 ...

2025年港股步入估值修复与结构重塑并行阶段，估值低估、资金错位与业绩分化成为核心特征。历经此 前三年调整，恒生指数形成显著的估值洼地，南向资金创纪录净流入与外资转向共同重塑资金格局。 日前，中信证券海外策略首席分析师徐广鸿在接受中国证券报记者专访时表示，2026年港股将在政策红 利与外部风险博弈中开启第二轮估值修复，内外因素共振有望进一步打开上行空间。在此背景下，投资 需紧扣"业绩确定性+估值弹性"主线，科技、医药、资源品与必选消费四大赛道，凭借政策支撑、产业 景气或供需优势，成为把握港股修复行情的核心方向。 美联储政策成为短期最大变量，徐广鸿认为，市场对12月"鹰派"降息存在担忧，但机构判断此次议息会 议或为"鹰派"恐慌顶点，后续随着美联储主席提名博弈展开，若未出现极端"鹰派"候选人，市场将重回 宽松交易逻辑。 估值洼地凸显 今年以来，港股三大指数震荡上行。Wind数据显示，截至12月9日，恒生指数、恒生中国企业指数、恒 生科技指数分别累计涨幅为49.20%、22.59%、24.32%。 "当前港股正处于估值修复与结构重塑的关键阶段，估值低估、资金错位与业绩分化构成市场核心特 征。"徐广鸿表示，从估值维度 ...

12月以来，大盘走势呈现"先抑后扬"的震荡修复态势。月初首个交易日上证指数上涨0.65%后，2-4日进入短暂调整期，连续小幅下跌引发部分投资者对年 末行情的担忧；但12月5日市场迎来强势反弹，上证指数上涨0.70%成功收复3900点整数关口，深成指、创业板指分别大涨1.08%、1.36%，超4300只个股 飘红，赚钱效应显著回升。更为关键的是，当日两市成交额放量至1.73万亿元，较前一日增加1768亿元，主力资金净流入规模达973亿元，创下近一个月 新高，量能的有效释放印证了市场做多情绪的回归，为后续行情延续奠定了资金基础。 央行《2025年第四季度货币政策执行报告》强调"维持流动性合理充裕"，明确年末将通过逆回购、中期借贷便利（MLF）等工具精准对冲资金面季节性波 动，12月已开展3000亿元7天期逆回购操作，中标利率维持1.80%不变，保障市场资金成本稳定。 金融监管总局《关于优化保险资金运用管理有关事项的通知》明确，将部分沪深300成分股的投资风险因子从0.3调整至0.25，按险资当前28万亿元总资产 规模测算，预计可释放超5000亿元增量资金入市，长期资金配置需求将进一步支撑核心资产估值。 截至12月 ...

人民财讯11月28日电，华泰证券认为，地产周期尤其是地产价格变化仍然是判断2026年消费复苏力度与 速度的胜负手，在2026年房价结构性企稳的预期下，居民资产负债表修复有望带动消费倾向边际改善； 同时，可能的供给与需求政策刺激将提振居民消费意愿。必选消费公司国内结构性升级与出海空间仍然 广阔，同时近年来龙头分红率不断提升，在低利率环境下具备股息率打底、长期成长性较高、低估值具 备弹性的三重优势。当前必选消费行业配置比例及估值分位数处于历史低位，已经步入胜率较高的左侧 底部区间，建议积极把握板块布局机会。 ...

华泰证券研报表示，在2026年房价结构性企稳预期下，居民资产负债表修复有望带动消费倾向边际改 善；同时，可能的供给与需求政策刺激将提振居民消费意愿。必选消费公司国内结构性升级与出海空间 仍然广阔，同时近年来龙头分红率不断提升，在低利率环境下具备股息率打底、长期成长性较高、低估 值具备弹性的三重优势。当前必选消费行业配置比例及估值分位数处于历史低位，已经步入胜率较高的 左侧底部区间，建议积极把握板块布局机会。 （文章来源：第一财经） ...

Core Viewpoint - The report from Huatai Securities indicates that the expectation of structural stabilization in housing prices by 2026 is likely to lead to a marginal improvement in consumer sentiment due to the recovery of household balance sheets [1] Group 1: Consumer Sentiment and Policy Impact - The anticipated recovery of household balance sheets is expected to enhance consumer willingness to spend [1] - Potential supply and demand policy stimuli may further boost consumer consumption intentions [1] Group 2: Essential Consumer Sector Outlook - The essential consumer sector is projected to experience structural upgrades domestically and has significant opportunities for expansion overseas [1] - Leading companies in this sector have been increasing their dividend payout ratios, which provides a solid foundation for dividend yield, long-term growth potential, and valuation resilience in a low-interest-rate environment [1] Group 3: Investment Strategy - The current allocation ratio and valuation percentiles for the essential consumer industry are at historical lows, indicating a high probability of being in a favorable left-side bottom range for investment [1] - It is recommended to actively seize opportunities for sector allocation [1]

今日早参 2025 年 11 月 27 日 陈慎 房地产行业首席研究员 座机：021 38476038 邮箱：chenshen@htsc.com 张继强 研究所所长、固收首席研究员 座机：13910012450 邮箱：zhangjiqiang@htsc.com 今日热点 房地产开发/房地产服务：地方政府的房贷贴息实践效果如何？ 戚康旭 SAC:S0570524120001 陈慎 SAC:S0570519010002 SFC:BIO834 今日深度 固定收益：回归价值逻辑——2026 年 REITs 市场展望 明年 REITs 市场趋势性机会有限，基本面分化或将更明显，投资策略应回归 价值逻辑，建议精选基本面稳健、估值合理的优质品种。低利率环境下， REITs 作为多元化配置的重要工具，其在大类资产配置中的价值将进一步凸 显。分资产来看，稳健型资产的分派率与 10 年期国债之间的利差锚或将进一 步强化，基本面走弱的项目波动或加剧，OCI 账户仍对高分红的经营权 REITs 有较高配置需求。一级市场方面，发行规模预计将稳步增长，扩募持 续推进，投资人打新将回归理性，一级报价或应给二级市场留出缓冲空间。 风险提示： ...

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. labor market shows signs of resilience with a notable rebound in non-farm payrolls, indicating that employment changes are not linear and that previous weaknesses were partly due to external shocks like tariffs [1][5][6]. Group 1: Non-Farm Payrolls and Employment Trends - In September, the U.S. added 119,000 non-farm jobs, significantly exceeding the expected 50,000 and the Dallas Fed's estimated 30,000 jobs needed for labor market balance [1][5]. - The healthcare sector contributed the most with 57,000 jobs, followed by leisure and hospitality with 47,000, and construction with 19,000 [1][6]. - The transportation and warehousing sector saw a decline of 25,000 jobs, reflecting broader economic sensitivity and automation trends [6]. Group 2: Unemployment Rate and Labor Force Participation - The unemployment rate rose to 4.44%, marking a high point for the current cycle, with an increase in both employed (251,000) and unemployed (219,000) individuals [2][7]. - Labor force participation slightly increased to 62.4%, with notable improvements among younger demographics, while the core working age group (25-54) saw stagnant participation and rising unemployment [7][8]. Group 3: Wage Growth and Labor Market Indicators - Average hourly earnings increased by 3.79% year-over-year, slightly lower than the previous 3.83%, while the Index of Aggregate Payrolls Private showed a stronger growth of 4.65% [12][13]. - Average weekly hours remained stable at 34.2 hours, indicating cautious labor scheduling by employers [12][13]. Group 4: Federal Reserve Outlook - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is likely to pause interest rate cuts in December, influenced by the rebound in non-farm payrolls and the lack of new data due to government shutdowns [3][14][18]. - Market expectations for a rate cut in December are modest, with a probability of 39.6%, reflecting limited changes in economic conditions [4][20]. Group 5: Market Reactions and Sector Performance - Following the employment data release, U.S. stock indices fell, with the S&P 500 down 1.56%, indicating a risk-off sentiment among investors [4][21]. - Defensive sectors such as utilities and healthcare performed relatively well, while technology stocks faced significant declines [21].