Group 1 - The domestic liquefied gas market in China showed a downward trend in the first half of 2025, with an average price of 4833 yuan/ton for civil gas, down 84 yuan/ton or 1.71% year-on-year [2] - The average price for ether C4 was 4947 yuan/ton, a decrease of 317 yuan/ton or 6.02% year-on-year [2] - The overall energy prices were weak due to macro risks and supply-demand dynamics, with international crude oil prices fluctuating significantly [2][3] Group 2 - The supply of liquefied gas in the domestic market exceeded demand in the first half of 2025, with total supply estimated at 38.07 million tons and total demand at 37.56 million tons [3] - Inventory levels showed a trend of decreasing initially and then increasing, influenced by rising imports and low domestic demand [3] - The forecast for the second half of 2025 indicates a potential increase in liquefied gas prices initially, followed by a decline due to supply exceeding demand [4][6] Group 3 - The expected total supply for the second half of 2025 is 38.88 million tons, while total demand is projected at 37.60 million tons [4] - Domestic production is anticipated to increase due to reduced refinery maintenance and the gradual resumption of previously halted facilities [4] - The demand for liquefied gas is expected to rise slightly as the market transitions from off-peak to peak season, but overall demand remains in a downward trend [5] Group 4 - The average price forecast for civil gas in the second half of 2025 is 4773 yuan/ton, with a high of 4910 yuan/ton in October and a low of 4600 yuan/ton in July [7] - The average price for ether C4 is projected to be 4901 yuan/ton, with a peak of 5000 yuan/ton in September and a low of 4780 yuan/ton in December [7] - The market for ether C4 is expected to experience price fluctuations, initially rising due to increased demand and then declining in the fourth quarter [7]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The energy - chemical sector is mainly divided into energy, alcohols, polyolefins, rubber, polyesters, alkalis, and others. Strategies suggest constructing option portfolios mainly as sellers and spot hedging or covered strategies to enhance returns [3][9]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Overview - **Crude Oil**: The latest price of SC2508 is 538, down 32 (-5.65%), with a trading volume of 42.27 million lots (-3.28 million lots) and an open interest of 4.37 million lots (+0.24 million lots) [4]. - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG)**: The latest price of PG2508 is 4,445, down 83 (-1.83%), with a trading volume of 10.36 million lots (+1.97 million lots) and an open interest of 7.67 million lots (+0.31 million lots) [4]. - **Methanol**: The latest price of MA2509 is 2,469, down 43 (-1.71%), with a trading volume of 249.70 million lots (+49.39 million lots) and an open interest of 99.35 million lots (+10.88 million lots) [4]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The latest price of EG2509 is 4,454, down 50 (-1.11%), with a trading volume of 30.28 million lots (+1.85 million lots) and an open interest of 29.92 million lots (-0.64 million lots) [4]. - **Polypropylene**: The latest price of PP2509 is 7,242, up 5 (0.07%), with a trading volume of 38.71 million lots (+1.15 million lots) and an open interest of 48.85 million lots (-0.64 million lots) [4]. - **Polyvinyl Chloride**: The latest price of V2509 is 4,895, down 12 (-0.24%), with a trading volume of 99.22 million lots (-6.39 million lots) and an open interest of 96.92 million lots (+1.61 million lots) [4]. - **Plastic**: The latest price of L2509 is 7,428, up 6 (0.08%), with a trading volume of 42.18 million lots (+0.76 million lots) and an open interest of 47.73 million lots (-0.72 million lots) [4]. - **Styrene**: The latest price of EB2508 is 7,486, down 109 (-1.44%), with a trading volume of 32.35 million lots (+6.79 million lots) and an open interest of 24.62 million lots (+2.03 million lots) [4]. - **Rubber**: The latest price of RU2509 is 13,835, down 50 (-0.36%), with a trading volume of 42.59 million lots (+3.64 million lots) and an open interest of 15.64 million lots (+0.10 million lots) [4]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: The latest price of BR2508 is 11,440, down 25 (-0.22%), with a trading volume of 8.14 million lots (+0.08 million lots) and an open interest of 5.82 million lots (-0.04 million lots) [4]. - **Para - xylene**: The latest price of PX2509 is 7,076, down 8 (-0.11%), with a trading volume of 34.96 million lots (-10.63 million lots) and an open interest of 13.80 million lots (+0.16 million lots) [4]. - **Purified Terephthalic Acid (PTA)**: The latest price of TA2509 is 4,986, up 2 (0.04%), with a trading volume of 144.17 million lots (-23.43 million lots) and an open interest of 129.15 million lots (+0.77 million lots) [4]. - **Short - fiber**: The latest price of PF2508 is 6,796, down 12 (-0.18%), with a trading volume of 17.87 million lots (-3.13 million lots) and an open interest of 14.70 million lots (-0.95 million lots) [4]. - **Bottle Chip**: The latest price of PR2508 is 6,232, down 10 (-0.16%), with a trading volume of 1.32 million lots (-0.60 million lots) and an open interest of 1.63 million lots (-0.08 million lots) [4]. - **Caustic Soda**: The latest price of SH2508 is 2,276, up 20 (0.89%), with a trading volume of 2.32 million lots (-0.65 million lots) and an open interest of 2.56 million lots (+0.05 million lots) [4]. - **Soda Ash**: The latest price of SA2509 is 1,170, up 2 (0.17%), with a trading volume of 105.53 million lots (-40.92 million lots) and an open interest of 148.48 million lots (+1.67 million lots) [4]. - **Urea**: The latest price of UR2509 is 1,711, down 35 (-2.00%), with a trading volume of 26.97 million lots (-13.60 million lots) and an open interest of 23.32 million lots (+0.77 million lots) [4]. 3.2 Option Factors - Volume and Open Interest PCR - Different option varieties have different volume and open interest PCR values and their changes, which can be used to describe the strength of the option underlying market and the turning point of the market [5]. 3.3 Option Factors - Pressure and Support Levels - Each option variety has corresponding pressure and support levels determined from the strike prices of the maximum open interest of call and put options [6]. 3.4 Option Factors - Implied Volatility - Different option varieties have different implied volatility values, including at - the - money implied volatility, weighted implied volatility, and their changes, as well as the difference between implied and historical volatility [7]. 3.5 Option Strategies and Recommendations 3.5.1 Energy - related Options - **Crude Oil**: - **Fundamentals**: OPEC + plans to increase supply, and US shale oil production shows signs of recovery [8]. - **Market Analysis**: The price has fluctuated since May, with a significant decline at night [8]. - **Option Factors**: Implied volatility is at a relatively high historical level, and the open interest PCR indicates strong bullish power. The pressure level is 610, and the support level is 450 [8]. - **Strategies**: Construct a neutral short call + put option combination strategy and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [8]. - **LPG**: - **Fundamentals**: Due to the Iran - Israel conflict, the energy sector is strong, and Iranian LPG exports may decrease [10]. - **Market Analysis**: After a decline since April, it rebounded in June and then fell back [10]. - **Option Factors**: Implied volatility fluctuates around a relatively high historical average, and the open interest PCR indicates a short - term bullish trend. The pressure level is 5100, and the support level is 4000 [10]. - **Strategies**: Construct a neutral short call + put option combination strategy and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [10]. 3.5.2 Alcohol - related Options - **Methanol**: - **Fundamentals**: Port and enterprise inventories are decreasing, and low - inventory de - stocking drives changes in basis and spreads [10]. - **Market Analysis**: After a long - term decline, it rebounded in June and then fell back [10]. - **Option Factors**: Implied volatility is at a relatively high historical average, and the open interest PCR indicates an increase in short - term bullish power. The pressure level is 2950, and the support level is 2200 [10]. - **Strategies**: Construct a short - bullish call + put option combination strategy and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [10]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: - **Fundamentals**: Port inventory is decreasing, and the domestic maintenance season is ending [11]. - **Market Analysis**: It rebounded in May and then fluctuated in June [11]. - **Option Factors**: Implied volatility is rising and at a relatively high historical level, and the open interest PCR indicates a strong - side oscillation. The pressure level is 4500, and the support level is 4350 [11]. - **Strategies**: Construct a short - volatility strategy and a long + put + short - call option strategy for spot hedging [11]. 3.5.3 Polyolefin - related Options - **Polypropylene**: - **Fundamentals**: Downstream开工率 is low, and inventories are accumulating [11]. - **Market Analysis**: It rebounded in June after a decline [11]. - **Option Factors**: Implied volatility fluctuates above the historical average, and the open interest PCR is falling below 1. The pressure level is 7500, and the support level is 6800 [11]. - **Strategies**: Construct a bull - spread call option strategy and a long + put + short - call option strategy for spot hedging [11]. 3.5.4 Rubber - related Options - **Rubber**: - **Fundamentals**: Qingdao general trade inventory is slightly accumulating [12]. - **Market Analysis**: It has been in a weak oscillation, with a short - term rebound [12]. - **Option Factors**: Implied volatility fluctuates around the average, and the open interest PCR is below 0.6. The pressure level is 21000, and the support level is 13000 [12]. - **Strategies**: Construct a neutral short call + put option combination strategy [12]. 3.5.5 Polyester - related Options - **PTA and related products**: - **Fundamentals**: PTA industry inventory is decreasing slightly [13]. - **Market Analysis**: It has been in a high - level oscillation and rebounded [13]. - **Option Factors**: Implied volatility is at a relatively high historical level, and the open interest PCR indicates a strengthening trend. The pressure level is 5000, and the support level is 3800 [13]. - **Strategies**: Construct a neutral short call + put option combination strategy [13]. 3.5.6 Alkali - related Options - **Caustic Soda**: - **Fundamentals**: Chlor - alkali plant inventory is decreasing, but the future supply - demand pattern may weaken [14]. - **Market Analysis**: It has been in a downward trend since June [14]. - **Option Factors**: Implied volatility is decreasing, and the open interest PCR indicates a weak market. The pressure level is 2400, and the support level is 2040 [14]. - **Strategies**: Construct a bear - spread put option strategy, a short - bearish wide - straddle option combination strategy, and a covered spot hedging strategy [14]. - **Soda Ash**: - **Fundamentals**: Production and sales have improved slightly, but the market is still weak [14]. - **Market Analysis**: It has been in a downward trend and is oscillating at a low level [14]. - **Option Factors**: Implied volatility is rising but below the historical average, and the open interest PCR indicates a weak oscillation. The pressure level is 1300, and the support level is 1100 [14]. - **Strategies**: Construct a bear - spread put option strategy, a short - bearish call + put option combination strategy, and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [14]. 3.5.7 Urea Options - **Fundamentals**: Domestic enterprise inventory is decreasing, and port inventory is increasing [15]. - **Market Analysis**: It rebounded in May and then declined in June [15]. - **Option Factors**: Implied volatility fluctuates below the historical average, and the open interest PCR indicates a strengthening trend. The pressure level is 1900, and the support level is 1700 [15]. - **Strategies**: Construct a neutral short call + put option combination strategy and a long + put + short - call option strategy for spot hedging [15].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the given reports. Core Views - The market is significantly affected by the Israel - Iran cease - fire news. Crude oil prices have dropped sharply as the geopolitical risk premium fades. Different energy and chemical products will gradually return to fundamental - driven pricing, with varying trends based on their supply - demand fundamentals [1][2]. - For most products, short - term market trends are influenced by geopolitical factors, and mid - to long - term trends are determined by supply - demand relationships, production capacity changes, and cost factors. Summary by Commodity Crude Oil - **Market Review**: WTI2508 closed at $68.51, down $5.33 (-7.22%); Brent2508 closed at $71.48, down $5.53 (-7.18%); SC2508 closed at 537.7 yuan/barrel after night trading [1]. - **Logic Analysis**: Market prices in response to the cooling of geopolitical conflicts. If geopolitical conflicts ease, crude oil will return to fundamental pricing, with short - term trading on third - quarter peak - season expectations and long - term trading on the contradiction of increased supply - demand surplus under OPEC+ continuous production increases. The expected trading range for Brent in the third quarter is $60 - 72 per barrel [2]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short - term volatility, with Brent trading in the range of $66 - 72 per barrel. Pay attention to the certainty of the Middle - East cease - fire [2]. Asphalt - **Market Review**: BU2509 closed at 3737 points (-1.16%) at night; BU2512 closed at 3574 points (-1.27%) at night. Spot prices in different regions showed an upward trend [3]. - **Logic Analysis**: After the sharp drop in oil prices, the upward cost - driven factor for asphalt disappeared. The short - term supply - demand situation is weak, and inventory is lower than the same period. The price of the BU main contract is expected to range from 3600 to 3750 [5]. - **Trading Strategy**: Weak and volatile. The spread between asphalt and crude oil will rebound [5]. Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) - **Market Review**: PG2507 closed at 4538 (-0.42%) at night; PG2508 closed at 4522 (-0.18%) at night. Spot prices in different regions showed different trends [5]. - **Logic Analysis**: With the decline in oil prices, the supply of LPG decreased slightly last week, and the international shipping volume decreased. The combustion - end demand is expected to be weak, while the chemical - sector demand is expected to increase. Overall, the fundamentals are relatively loose, and the price is expected to decline [8]. - **Trading Strategy**: The price of LPG is expected to be weak [8]. Fuel Oil - **Market Review**: FU09 closed at 3341 (-0.83%) at night; LU08 closed at 3988 (-0.05%) at night. Singapore paper - cargo spreads changed [8]. - **Logic Analysis**: High - sulfur fuel oil trading remains active, with high - sulfur cracking supported by geopolitical factors and peak - season power - generation demand. Low - sulfur fuel oil supply is increasing, but downstream demand is weak. The price of high - sulfur fuel oil is expected to be supported, while low - sulfur fuel oil needs to be observed for further trends [10][11]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait - and - see for single - side trading. Consider taking profit on the positive spread of FU9 - 1 [11]. Natural Gas - **Logic Analysis**: US natural gas inventory accumulation was lower than expected. Production increased slightly, demand was at a historical high, and LNG export volume was 14.2 bcf/d. European natural gas prices decreased due to the cease - fire news. The price of natural gas is expected to rise [11][13]. - **Trading Strategy**: Go long on HH at dips and be bullish on TTF [13]. PX - **Market Review**: PX2509 closed at 7076 (-0.70%) at night. Spot prices increased, and PXN was $264/ton, up $8/ton [13][14]. - **Logic Analysis**: Many PX plants have maintenance plans or production cuts, and the Asian PX operating rate has declined recently, resulting in tight supply. The price is expected to fluctuate widely in the short term [14]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wide - range fluctuations. Long PX and short PTA for spreads [14][15]. PTA - **Market Review**: TA509 closed at 4986 (-0.52%) at night. Spot prices and basis changed [15]. - **Logic Analysis**: Some PTA plants have reduced production or shut down, and the operating rate has decreased. Downstream polyester operating rate has increased, but profits have been compressed. The price is expected to fluctuate widely in the short term [15]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wide - range fluctuations. Long PX and short PTA for spreads [15][16]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Review**: EG2509 closed at 4454 (-1.04%) at night. Spot basis and prices changed [16][17]. - **Logic Analysis**: Domestic and foreign plants have restarted or increased production, and the operating rate has increased significantly. Downstream polyester operating rate has increased, but terminal demand has weakened. The supply - demand pattern in June and July is still tight, and the price is expected to fluctuate widely [17]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wide - range fluctuations [17][18]. Short - Fiber - **Market Review**: PF2508 closed at 6796 (-0.44%) at night. Spot prices increased, but downstream was mostly waiting and watching [18]. - **Logic Analysis**: Supply has increased and demand has decreased recently, but production and sales are stable, and processing fees have increased. Some large factories have tight supply, and processing fees are expected to be strongly supported. The price is expected to fluctuate widely following raw materials [19]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wide - range fluctuations. Short PTA and long PF for spreads [19][20]. PR (Bottle Chips) - **Market Review**: PR2509 closed at 6172 (-0.58%) at night. Spot market trading was okay [19][20]. - **Logic Analysis**: Some bottle - chip plants have increased production, and inventory has risen. Some plants have plans to reduce production or shut down. The price is expected to fluctuate widely following raw materials [20][21]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wide - range fluctuations [20][21]. Styrene - **Market Review**: EB2508 closed at 7486 (-1.28%) at night. Spot prices and basis changed [21]. - **Logic Analysis**: Pure - benzene prices are expected to be stable and slightly strong. Styrene supply has increased, and downstream operating rate is at a seasonal low. The price is mainly guided by cost factors and is expected to fluctuate widely [22]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wide - range fluctuations [22]. Plastic PP - **Market Review**: LLDPE prices fluctuated, and PP prices were relatively stable [23]. - **Logic Analysis**: Previous price increases were affected by Middle - East geopolitics. After the cease - fire news, oil prices dropped, and plastic PP is expected to open lower. In the medium term, supply - demand is expected to be weak, and a short - selling strategy on rallies is recommended [24][25]. - **Trading Strategy**: Open lower. Short - sell on rallies, paying attention to the certainty of the cease - fire and oil prices [25]. PVC and Caustic Soda - **PVC Market Review**: PVC prices were slightly adjusted, and trading was light [27]. - **PVC Logic Analysis**: Supply is expected to increase, and demand is still dragged down by the real - estate market. The medium - to long - term supply - demand is in surplus, and a short - selling strategy on rebounds is recommended [29]. - **Caustic Soda Logic Analysis**: The 09 contract of caustic soda is expected to be weak. Demand is expected to have no significant increase in the medium term, and new production capacity is expected to be put into operation. A short - selling strategy is recommended [30]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short - sell caustic soda and PVC. Hold the 8 - 10 reverse spread for caustic soda [31][32]. Glass - **Market Review**: The glass 09 contract closed at 1009 yuan/ton (+0.20%) at night. Spot prices changed slightly [32]. - **Logic Analysis**: Supply is increasing, and demand is affected by the real - estate market. The price is expected to be weak in the short term. Pay attention to cost reduction and plant cold - repair [33]. - **Trading Strategy**: Look for short - selling opportunities on rebounds. Sell out - of - the - money call options [34]. Soda Ash - **Market Review**: The soda - ash 09 contract closed at 1170 yuan/ton (-0.3%) at night. Spot prices fluctuated slightly [34]. - **Logic Analysis**: Supply is at a high level, and demand from downstream photovoltaic glass is expected to decline. Inventory has increased, and costs have decreased. A short - selling strategy is recommended [35]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short - sell soda ash. Sell out - of - the - money call options [36]. Urea - **Market Review**: Urea futures closed at 1711 (-2%). Spot prices declined, and trading was weak [36]. - **Logic Analysis**: Supply is at a high level, and domestic demand is declining. International prices are strong, and export orders have increased, but the market is still expected to be weak in the short term [37]. - **Trading Strategy**: Weak trend. Sell call options on rebounds [38]. Methanol - **Market Review**: Methanol futures closed at 2469 (-1.71%). Spot prices in different regions varied [38]. - **Logic Analysis**: International supply has tightened, but domestic supply is loose. Downstream demand is stable, and port inventory is increasing. The price is expected to decline in the short term [39]. - **Trading Strategy**: Weak trend. Sell call options [39]. Logs - **Market Review**: Log prices in some regions increased slightly, and the main contract price rose [39][40]. - **Logic Analysis**: Downstream demand is still weak, and the market faces challenges in the medium - to long - term. The futures market is supported by delivery rules. [42]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait - and - see for single - side trading. Pay attention to the 9 - 11 reverse spread [42]. Double - Coated Paper - **Market Review**: The double - coated paper market was stable with some declines. Trading was general [42]. - **Logic Analysis**: Industry profitability is low, production has decreased, but inventory pressure is still high. Demand is weak, and pulp prices provide limited support [43]. Corrugated Paper - **Market Review**: Corrugated and box - board paper prices declined slightly, and trading was weak [44]. - **Logic Analysis**: Supply may be reduced, demand is in the off - season, and prices are expected to decline slightly in the next period [45]. Pulp - **Market Review**: Pulp futures declined. Spot prices of different types of pulp changed [45]. - **Logic Analysis**: Domestic paper production has increased, and Taiwan's paper production has declined. The price of the SP main contract is expected to be affected negatively [47]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait - and - see for the SP 09 contract. Hold the 5*SP2509 - 2*NR2509 spread [47]. Natural Rubber and 20 - Number Rubber - **Market Review**: RU09 closed at 13835 (-0.82%); NR08 closed at 12020 (+0.08%). Spot prices of different types of rubber changed [47][48]. - **Logic Analysis**: Vietnam's rubber industry faces challenges from EU regulations. Domestic inventory shows different trends. [49]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait - and - see for the RU09 contract. Hold short positions on the NR08 contract. Adjust stop - loss levels [50]. Butadiene Rubber - **Market Review**: BR08 closed at 11440 (-0.13%). Spot prices of butadiene rubber and related products changed [51]. - **Logic Analysis**: Domestic butadiene rubber inventory is increasing. Some tire projects are being invested [52]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short - sell a small amount of the BR08 contract. Hold the BR2508 - NR2508 spread. Sell the BR2508 call 12200 contract [52][53].

专题报告 2025-06-24 刘洁文 液化气：霍尔木兹海峡的炮火，正在改写 LPG 贸易版图 报告要点： 徐绍祖（联系人） 能化分析师 xushaozu@wkqh.cn 近期以色列和伊朗的冲突使中东地区的地缘更加不稳定，美国轰炸伊朗多处核设施也将本次冲 突再次升级，伊朗考虑封锁霍尔木兹海峡。历史上伊朗曾多次宣布封锁霍尔木兹海峡，但由于 海峡宽度较大，且部分水域属于阿曼，物理上难以完全封锁。此外伊朗自身大量民生物资依赖 该航道，并且封锁该海峡影响全球能源化工用户或将与世界为敌。因此借鉴两伊战争时期使用 水雷短暂封锁成功的先例，完全封锁霍尔木兹海峡的概率不高，但也门胡赛武装在西侧呼应伊 朗打击欧美船只为全球能源贸易造成干扰已成事实。但是如果伊朗领导人哈梅内伊的领导权受 到绝对挑战时，最差的结果或将发生即封锁霍尔木兹海峡，届时全球能源贸易版图或将被炮火 改写。 霍尔木兹海峡作为伊朗 LPG 出口全球（尤其亚洲）的核心命脉，其通畅程度直接决定供应能力。 完全封锁将引发亚洲市场供应危机与价格海啸，而持续性船只骚扰则通过三重压力（运费/保 险成本激增、航程效率折损、供应风险预期）长期推高 LPG 价格。中国作为全球最大 ...

美国总统特朗普周三表示，美中已达成一项让脆弱的贸易休战回到正轨的协议，此前华盛 顿和北京官员就一项包括关税税率在内的框架达成了一致。框架还包括有关稀土和中国留 学生的内容。特朗普在其社交媒体平台上公布了伦敦两天会谈的一些首次披露的细节。用 美国商务部长卢特尼克的话来说，此次会谈为上月在日内瓦达成的一项旨在降低双边报复 性关税的协定"增添了实质内容"。 美国和伊拉克消息人士表示，美国正准备撤离驻伊拉克大使馆部分人员，并将允许中东各 军事基地的军人家属离开，因该地区安全风险加剧。消息人士并未具体说明是哪些安全风 险促使政府做出这一决定。白宫官员表示，美国总统特朗普已听取了相关汇报。相关报道 导致油价上涨逾 4%。 EIA 数据显示，截止 6 月 6 日当周，包括战略储备在内的美国原油库存总量 8.34 亿桶，比 前一周下降 341 万桶；美国商业原油库存量 4.32 亿桶，比前一周下降 364.4 万桶；美国汽 油库存总量 2.30 亿桶，比前一周增长 150.4 万桶；馏分油库存量为 1.09 亿桶，比前一周增 长 124.6 万桶。美国原油日均产量 1342.8 万桶，比前周日均产量增加 2 万桶，比去年同期 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The energy and chemical sector includes energy, alcohols, polyolefins, rubber, polyesters, alkalis, and others. The recommended strategy is to construct option combination strategies mainly as sellers, along with spot hedging or covered strategies to enhance returns [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Overview - **Crude Oil**: The latest price of SC2507 is 479, up 6 with a 1.16% increase. Trading volume is 12.06 million lots, up 1.14 million, and open interest is 2.25 million lots, up 0.14 million [3]. - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG)**: The latest price of PG2507 is 4,088, down 17 with a 0.41% decrease. Trading volume is 5.34 million lots, down 0.76 million, and open interest is 5.50 million lots, down 0.24 million [3]. - **Methanol**: The latest price of MA2509 is 2,273, up 3 with a 0.13% increase. Trading volume is 59.02 million lots, down 1.75 million, and open interest is 81.91 million lots, up 1.94 million [3]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The latest price of EG2509 is 4,256, down 11 with a 0.26% decrease. Trading volume is 20.86 million lots, down 2.43 million, and open interest is 28.48 million lots, up 0.40 million [3]. - **Polypropylene**: The latest price of PP2509 is 6,918, down 17 with a 0.25% decrease. Trading volume is 22.95 million lots, up 0.23 million, and open interest is 51.63 million lots, down 0.15 million [3]. - **Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC)**: The latest price of V2509 is 4,782, down 23 with a 0.48% decrease. Trading volume is 92.03 million lots, down 18.30 million, and open interest is 99.14 million lots, down 1.23 million [3]. - **Plastic**: The latest price of L2509 is 7,072, down 7 with a 0.10% decrease. Trading volume is 24.95 million lots, down 9.28 million, and open interest is 54.54 million lots, up 0.14 million [3]. - **Styrene**: The latest price of EB2507 is 7,240, up 80 with a 1.12% increase. Trading volume is 48.34 million lots, up 4.87 million, and open interest is 27.49 million lots, down 1.20 million [3]. - **Rubber**: The latest price of RU2509 is 13,670, up 30 with a 0.22% increase. Trading volume is 35.26 million lots, down 6.86 million, and open interest is 16.84 million lots, down 0.37 million [3]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: The latest price of BR2507 is 11,225, down 10 with a 0.09% decrease. Trading volume is 10.41 million lots, down 5.54 million, and open interest is 2.30 million lots, down 0.19 million [3]. - **Para - xylene**: The latest price of PX2509 is 6,486, down 54 with a 0.83% decrease. Trading volume is 27.81 million lots, up 2.11 million, and open interest is 13.83 million lots, up 0.01 million [3]. - **Purified Terephthalic Acid (PTA)**: The latest price of TA2509 is 4,602, down 36 with a 0.78% decrease. Trading volume is 128.77 million lots, up 0.38 million, and open interest is 122.53 million lots, up 1.63 million [3]. - **Short - fiber**: The latest price of PF2508 is 6,294, down 44 with a 0.69% decrease. Trading volume is 9.83 million lots, up 3.78 million, and open interest is 10.57 million lots, up 1.99 million [3]. - **Bottle Chip**: The latest price of PR2508 is 5,830, down 46 with a 0.78% decrease. Trading volume is 1.62 million lots, up 0.21 million, and open interest is 1.64 million lots, up 0.04 million [3]. - **Caustic Soda**: The latest price of SH2508 is 2,337, down 13 with a 0.55% decrease. Trading volume is 3.42 million lots, up 0.22 million, and open interest is 2.02 million lots, up 0.42 million [3]. - **Soda Ash**: The latest price of SA2509 is 1,195, down 18 with a 1.48% decrease. Trading volume is 174.66 million lots, up 7.84 million, and open interest is 151.34 million lots, up 11.76 million [3]. - **Urea**: The latest price of UR2509 is 1,697, down 31 with a 1.79% decrease. Trading volume is 27.55 million lots, up 7.93 million, and open interest is 26.59 million lots, up 2.11 million [3]. 3.2 Option Factors - Volume and Open Interest PCR - Different option varieties have different volume and open interest PCR values and their changes, which are used to describe the strength of the option underlying market and the turning point of the underlying market [4]. 3.3 Option Factors - Pressure and Support Levels - Each option variety has corresponding pressure and support levels, which are determined by the strike prices of the maximum open interest of call and put options [5]. 3.4 Option Factors - Implied Volatility - The implied volatility of each option variety includes at - the - money implied volatility, weighted implied volatility, and their changes, as well as the difference between implied and historical volatility [6]. 3.5 Strategy and Recommendations 3.5.1 Energy - related Options (Crude Oil) - **Fundamentals**: US non - SPR oil inventory is 1.235 billion barrels, up from last week. European crude and refined product inventories are down year - on - year [7]. - **Market Analysis**: Since May, crude oil has shown a short - term bullish upward trend with resistance [7]. - **Option Factor Research**: Implied volatility is at a relatively high historical level. The open interest PCR is around 1.00, indicating a balanced game between bulls and bears. The pressure level is 570 and the support level is 400 [7]. - **Strategies**: No directional strategy. For volatility, construct a neutral short call + put option combination. For spot hedging, use a long collar strategy [7]. 3.5.2 Energy - related Options (LPG) - **Fundamentals**: International LPG prices are moving down. Domestic production is increasing, and imports are concentrated. Inventory in South China has increased [9]. - **Market Analysis**: Since April, LPG has shown a weak bearish trend [9]. - **Option Factor Research**: Implied volatility is around the historical average. The open interest PCR is below 0.80, indicating a weak market. The pressure level is 4500 and the support level is 3800 [9]. - **Strategies**: No directional strategy. For volatility, construct a bearish short call + put option combination. For spot hedging, use a long collar strategy [9]. 3.5.3 Alcohol - related Options (Methanol) - **Fundamentals**: Port demand is weak, and inventory has accumulated. Some plants have undergone maintenance and restart [9]. - **Market Analysis**: Since January, methanol has shown a weak bearish trend with a recent rebound [9]. - **Option Factor Research**: Implied volatility is around the historical average. The open interest PCR is around 1.00, indicating weakening bearish pressure. The pressure level is 2500 and the support level is 1975 [9]. - **Strategies**: No directional strategy. For volatility, construct a neutral short call + put option combination. For spot hedging, use a long collar strategy [9]. 3.5.4 Alcohol - related Options (Ethylene Glycol) - **Fundamentals**: The spot contract price has moved down, and inventory has increased [10]. - **Market Analysis**: Since May, ethylene glycol has shown a short - term bullish trend followed by a decline [10]. - **Option Factor Research**: Implied volatility is at a relatively high historical level. The open interest PCR is around 1.00, indicating a strong - side consolidation. The pressure level is 4500 and the support level is 4300 [10]. - **Strategies**: No directional strategy. For volatility, construct a short - volatility strategy. For spot hedging, use a long collar strategy [10]. 3.5.5 Polyolefin - related Options (Polypropylene) - **Fundamentals**: Domestic production capacity is increasing, and there is a supply - demand contradiction [10]. - **Market Analysis**: Since May, polypropylene has shown a bearish trend [10]. - **Option Factor Research**: Implied volatility is above the historical average. The open interest PCR is below 1.00. The pressure level is 7500 and the support level is 6800 [10]. - **Strategies**: For direction, construct a bearish put spread. For spot hedging, use a long collar strategy [10]. 3.5.6 Rubber - related Options - **Fundamentals**: Qingdao's rubber inventory is down [11]. - **Market Analysis**: Rubber has shown a bearish downward trend with a low - level rebound [11]. - **Option Factor Research**: The open interest PCR is below 0.60. The pressure level is 21000 and the support level is 13500 [11]. - **Strategies**: For direction, construct a bearish put spread. For volatility, construct a bearish short call + put option combination [11]. 3.5.7 Polyester - related Options (PTA) - **Fundamentals**: PX and PTA production and operating rates are up, and PTA inventory is down [12]. - **Market Analysis**: Since April, PTA has shown a high - level consolidation with a decline [12]. - **Option Factor Research**: Implied volatility is at a relatively high historical level. The open interest PCR is above 1.00, indicating a strengthening market. The pressure level is 5000 and the support level is 3800 [12]. - **Strategies**: No directional strategy. For volatility, construct a neutral short call + put option combination [12]. 3.5.8 Alkali - related Options (Caustic Soda) - **Fundamentals**: Supply pressure is high, and new production capacity is expected [13]. - **Market Analysis**: After a bearish decline, caustic soda has shown a rebound followed by a decline [13]. - **Option Factor Research**: Implied volatility is below the average. The open interest PCR is below 0.60, indicating a weak market. The pressure level is 2520 and the support level is 2320 [13]. - **Strategies**: For direction, construct a bearish put spread. For volatility, construct a bearish short strangle. For spot hedging, use a covered call strategy [13]. 3.5.9 Alkali - related Options (Soda Ash) - **Fundamentals**: Production and capacity utilization are up, and inventory is slightly up [13]. - **Market Analysis**: Soda ash has shown a weak bearish trend [13]. - **Option Factor Research**: Implied volatility is below the historical average. The open interest PCR is below 0.50, indicating a weak consolidation. The pressure level is 1400 and the support level is 1180 [13]. - **Strategies**: For direction, construct a bearish put spread. For volatility, construct a bearish short call + put option combination. For spot hedging, use a long collar strategy [13]. 3.5.10 Urea - related Options - **Fundamentals**: Supply pressure is high, and demand is weakening [14]. - **Market Analysis**: Since May, urea has shown an inverted "V" shape [14]. - **Option Factor Research**: Implied volatility is below the historical average. The open interest PCR is above 1.00. The pressure level is 1900 and the support level is 1700 [14]. - **Strategies**: For direction, construct a bearish put spread. For volatility, construct a bearish short call + put option combination. For spot hedging, use a long collar strategy [14].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The energy - chemical sector is divided into energy, alcohols, polyolefins, rubber, polyesters, alkalis, and others. For each selected option variety, strategies are provided based on the analysis of the underlying market, option factor research, and option strategy suggestions. The overall strategy is to construct option portfolio strategies mainly as sellers and spot hedging or covered strategies to enhance returns [2][8] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Overview - The report presents the latest prices, price changes, price change rates, trading volumes, volume changes, open interests, and open interest changes of various energy - chemical option underlying futures contracts, including crude oil, liquefied petroleum gas, methanol, etc [3] 3.2 Option Factor - Volume and Open Interest PCR - The volume PCR and open interest PCR of various energy - chemical options are provided, which are used to describe the strength of the option underlying market and the turning point of the underlying market respectively [4] 3.3 Option Factor - Pressure and Support Levels - The pressure and support levels of various energy - chemical option underlying assets are analyzed from the perspective of the strike prices with the largest open interest of call and put options [5] 3.4 Option Factor - Implied Volatility - The implied volatility data of various energy - chemical options are presented, including at - the - money implied volatility, weighted implied volatility, and its changes, annual average, call and put implied volatility, historical volatility, and the difference between implied and historical volatility [6] 3.5 Option Strategies and Suggestions 3.5.1 Energy - related Options - **Crude Oil**: The fundamental situation shows that the price has soared, and OPEC +'s production increase is lower than expected. The market has shown a large - amplitude oscillating pattern. Option strategies include constructing a neutral short call + put option combination strategy and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [7] - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas**: The factory inventory has slightly increased, and the port inventory has decreased. The market is in a weak and bearish state. Strategies include constructing a bearish short call + put option combination strategy and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [9] 3.5.2 Alcohol - related Options - **Methanol**: The port and enterprise inventories have increased, and the market has shown a weak and bearish rebound pattern. Strategies include constructing a neutral short call + put option combination strategy and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [9] - **Ethylene Glycol**: The port inventory has decreased, and the market has shown a pattern of short - term bullish rise followed by a decline at a high level. Strategies include constructing a short - volatility strategy and a long + put + short call option strategy for spot hedging [10] 3.5.3 Polyolefin - related Options - **Polypropylene**: The downstream start - up rate has decreased, and the market is in a bearish trend. Strategies include constructing a bearish spread strategy of put options and a long + put + short call option strategy for spot hedging [10] 3.5.4 Rubber - related Options - **Rubber**: The domestic main production areas have entered the full - scale tapping period. The market is in a bearish downward pattern. Strategies include constructing a bearish spread strategy of put options and a bearish short call + put option combination strategy [11] 3.5.5 Polyester - related Options - **PTA**: The overall load of the polyester industry is low, and the PTA market has shown a pattern of bullish rise followed by high - level oscillation. Strategies include constructing a neutral short call + put option combination strategy [11] 3.5.6 Alkali - related Options - **Caustic Soda**: New production facilities are expected to be put into operation, and the market is in a short - term oscillating pattern. Strategies include constructing a bearish wide - straddle option combination strategy and a covered call strategy for spot hedging [12] - **Soda Ash**: The production has increased, and the inventory has decreased slightly. The market is in a bearish downward pattern. Strategies include constructing a bearish spread strategy of put options, a bearish short call + put option combination strategy, and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [12] 3.5.7 Urea Options - The inventory has increased, and the market has shown a pattern of oscillating decline. Strategies include constructing a neutral short call + put option combination strategy and a long + put + short call option strategy for spot hedging [13]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views - Crude oil: After OPEC's production increase in July, the previous negative factors were exhausted. With the threat of wildfires in Canada and rising geopolitical risks, combined with short - term macro - stability, oil prices are strong in the short - term. However, in the long - term, due to relatively weak demand and continuous supply growth, the upside space is limited. The short - term Brent price is expected to oscillate at a high level, with the operating range moving up to $65 - 68 per barrel, and the medium - term range is expected to be $63 - 70 per barrel [1][2]. - Asphalt: The overall supply - demand pattern is loose. Although the cost of crude oil has increased, the market's acceptance of high - priced resources is poor. In the short - term, the terminal demand is limited, and the mainstream transaction price is concentrated at the lower end. However, due to the maintenance plan of some refineries and low inventory levels, the price has a certain upward trend [3][4]. - Liquefied gas: In the international market, the CP price has increased, while the FEI has decreased. In the domestic market, supply is increasing, and the summer off - season has increased the pressure on the market, with the fundamentals running weakly [8]. - Fuel oil: High - sulfur fuel oil has high near - month cracking and month - to - month spreads, and the spot premium has rebounded. The supply from Russia, Mexico, and the Middle East is expected to decline, while the demand for seasonal power generation is supportive. Low - sulfur fuel oil has a stable supply increase and weak downstream demand [9][11]. - Natural gas: In the US, due to increased demand, the price is expected to rebound. In Europe, supply restrictions and geopolitical tensions offset weak demand, and the price has returned above 35 euros. Europe still faces challenges in refilling gas storage [12][13]. - PX: As the efficiency of PX improves, the operating rate is expected to increase in June, and the supply - demand situation is expected to improve, with the spot shortage situation expected to ease [14][16]. - PTA: The supply is expected to increase, while the polyester industry plans to reduce production, and the supply - demand relationship is expected to weaken, and the processing fee may be compressed [17][18]. - Ethylene glycol: The inventory is expected to decline in the short - term, but the supply will increase in June due to some restarted maintenance. The downstream polyester operating rate is weakening, and the supply - demand gap is expected to narrow, maintaining a tight balance [20][21]. - Short - fiber: The operating rate is stable, and the terminal demand is mainly for fulfilling previous orders. There are still production reduction plans in June, but the supply loss is limited. The processing fee is expected to be strongly supported [22][23]. - Bottle - chip: The operating rate has decreased, and the processing fee fluctuates within a narrow range. In June, the downstream soft - drink industry will enter the production peak, and the supply - demand situation is expected to be strong, with the processing fee having strong support [24][26]. - Styrene: The supply is expected to increase, and the port inventory is expected to increase from a low level, with the supply - demand relationship weakening [26][27]. - PVC: The supply - demand situation is expected to be weak in the medium - to - long - term, with supply increasing and demand affected by real estate and export uncertainties [29][30]. - Caustic soda: The 09 - contract is expected to be weak, with the medium - term trend being bearish. Although there is still some support in the short - term, the upward driving force for the spot price is weakening [30][31]. - Plastic and PP: The new production capacity is being realized, and the downstream demand is weak. The 09 - contract's supply - demand situation is expected to be weak [32][34]. - Glass: The supply pressure is increasing, and the demand is affected by the real estate cycle. The short - term price is expected to oscillate weakly, and the medium - term focus is on cost reduction and factory cold - repair [34][37]. - Soda ash: The supply is increasing, the cost is weakening, and the demand is stable in the short - term but worrying in the medium - term. The price is expected to decline gradually [38][40]. - Urea: The daily output is at a high level, and the demand is affected by factors such as international price changes, compound fertilizer production, and export policies. The short - term price is expected to oscillate [41][42]. - Methanol: The international supply is still high, the domestic supply is loose, and the port is starting to accumulate inventory. The price is still recommended to be shorted on rebounds [43][45]. - Log: The downstream market is still sluggish, and the long - term market faces challenges from weak real - estate demand and increased port inventory. However, the large scale difference in delivery has a certain supporting effect on the current price [45][48]. - Double - offset paper: The market was weak in May, and in June, short - term technical rebounds may occur, but long - term risks from over - capacity and weak demand need to be vigilant [48][49]. - Corrugated paper: In May, the demand showed structural improvement, but in June, attention should be paid to factors such as the implementation of price - increase policies, export order sustainability, and waste - paper price fluctuations [50]. - Natural rubber: The domestic inventory is still at a high level, and the production index of French rubber machinery has decreased. The short - term trading strategy is to hold short positions [51][54]. - Pulp: The domestic and foreign paper - making industries have shown signs of production reduction, which is negative for the SP single - side. The short - term trading strategy is to try to go long on a small scale [54][56]. - Butadiene rubber: The short - term supply contraction has led to price increases, and in the medium - term, attention should be paid to the expansion of downstream ABS capacity. The short - term trading strategy is to hold short positions [58][60]. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - Market Review: WTI2507 contract settled at $63.41, up $0.89 per barrel, a month - on - month increase of 1.42%; Brent2508 contract settled at $65.63, up $1.00 per barrel, a month - on - month increase of 1.55%. SC main contract 2507 rose 12.4 to 465 yuan per barrel, and in the night session, it rose 4.0 to 469 yuan per barrel [1]. - Related News: The US has asked countries to submit their best trade negotiation plans by Wednesday. The US labor market is showing signs of softening, with an increase in job vacancies but also a large increase in layoffs [1]. - Logic Analysis: After OPEC's production increase, the previous negative factors were exhausted. Geopolitical risks have risen, and the macro - situation is stable in the short - term. However, in the long - term, due to weak demand and continuous supply growth, the upside space is limited [2]. - Trading Strategy: Short - term high - level oscillation, medium - term wide - range oscillation; gasoline and diesel cracking spreads are expected to weaken; options are on hold [2]. Asphalt - Market Review: BU2507 closed at 3524 points (+1.21%) in the night session, and BU2509 closed at 3495 points (+1.13%) in the night session. The spot price in Shandong on June 3 was 3470 - 3870 yuan, in the East China region was 3550 - 3620 yuan, and in the South China region was 3360 - 3450 yuan [3]. - Related News: The mainstream transaction price in Shandong rose by 25 yuan per ton. The demand is weak, and the acceptance of high - priced resources is poor. However, due to the maintenance plan of some refineries and low inventory levels, the price has increased [3][4]. - Logic Analysis: The supply - demand pattern is loose, and the price is mainly stable. In the short - term, the terminal demand is limited, and the mainstream transaction price is concentrated at the lower end [3][4]. - Trading Strategy: Oscillation; asphalt - crude oil spread oscillates at a high level; options are on hold [6]. Liquefied Gas - Market Review: PG2507 closed at 4075 (+0.27%) in the night session, and PG2508 closed at 4004 (+0.18%) in the night session. The spot price in South China, East China, and Shandong is given [6]. - Related News: The market in South China is generally stable, with some hidden discounts. The market in Shandong is stable with some small increases, and the ether - post - carbon - four market is expected to rise steadily [7]. - Logic Analysis: Internationally, the CP price has increased, and the FEI has decreased. Domestically, supply is increasing, and the summer off - season has increased market pressure, with the fundamentals running weakly [8]. Fuel Oil - Market Review: FU07 contract closed at 2943 (-0.03%) in the night session, and LU07 closed at 3535 (+1.61%) in the night session. The Singapore paper - futures market's month - to - month spreads are given [9]. - Related News: Russia's exports of some oil products are expected to change in June, and Nigeria's Dangote refinery will import a large amount of US WTI crude oil in July [9]. - Logic Analysis: High - sulfur fuel oil has high near - month cracking and month - to - month spreads, and the spot premium has rebounded. Low - sulfur fuel oil has a stable supply increase and weak downstream demand [11]. - Trading Strategy: On hold for single - side trading; go long on the FU9 - 1 positive spread when the price is low [12]. Natural Gas - Market Review: HH contract closed at 3.7 (+0.76%), TTF closed at 35.848 (+2.38%), and JKM closed at 12.345 (+1.69%) [12]. - Logic Analysis: In the US, due to increased demand, the price is expected to rebound. In Europe, supply restrictions and geopolitical tensions offset weak demand, and the price has returned above 35 euros. Europe still faces challenges in refilling gas storage [12][13]. - Trading Strategy: Go long on HH on dips; TTF is expected to oscillate strongly [14]. PX - Market Review: PX2509 main contract closed at 6524 (-1.42%) during the day and 6618 (+1.44%) in the night session. The spot price, MOPJ valuation, and PXN spread are given [14]. - Related News: The sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang are light [15]. - Logic Analysis: As the efficiency of PX improves, the operating rate is expected to increase in June, and the supply - demand situation is expected to improve, with the spot shortage situation expected to ease [16]. - Trading Strategy: High - level oscillation; go long on PX and short PTA; sell both call and put options [16]. PTA - Market Review: TA509 main contract closed at 4628 (-1.53%) during the day and 4706 (+1.69%) in the night session. The spot price and basis are given [17]. - Related News: The sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang are light, and a PTA device has restarted [15][18]. - Logic Analysis: The supply is expected to increase, while the polyester industry plans to reduce production, and the supply - demand relationship is expected to weaken, and the processing fee may be compressed [18]. - Trading Strategy: High - level oscillation; go long on PX and short PTA; sell both call and put options [18]. Ethylene Glycol - Market Review: EG2509 main contract closed at 4306 (-0.99%) during the day and 4319 (+0.30%) in the night session. The spot price and basis are given [18][19]. - Related News: The sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang are light, and some EG devices have restarted or are under maintenance [20]. - Logic Analysis: The inventory is expected to decline in the short - term, but the supply will increase in June due to some restarted maintenance. The downstream polyester operating rate is weakening, and the supply - demand gap is expected to narrow, maintaining a tight balance [21]. - Trading Strategy: High - level oscillation; basis positive spread; sell call options [22]. Short - fiber - Market Review: PF2507 main contract closed at 6338 (-0.72%) during the day and 6426 (+1.39%) in the night session. The spot price in different regions is given [22]. - Related News: The sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang are light [23]. - Logic Analysis: The operating rate is stable, and the terminal demand is mainly for fulfilling previous orders. There are still production reduction plans in June, but the supply loss is limited. The processing fee is expected to be strongly supported [23]. - Trading Strategy: High - level oscillation; short PTA and long PF; options are on hold [24]. Bottle - chip - Market Review: PR2507 main contract closed at 5912 (-1.17%) during the day and 5958 (+0.78%) in the night session. The spot price of polyester bottle - chips is given [24]. - Related News: The export quotes of polyester bottle - chip factories are mostly stable [25]. - Logic Analysis: The operating rate has decreased, and the processing fee fluctuates within a narrow range. In June, the downstream soft - drink industry will enter the production peak, and the supply - demand situation is expected to be strong, with the processing fee having strong support [26]. - Trading Strategy: Oscillation consolidation; options are on hold; sell call options [26]. Styrene - Market Review: EB2507 main contract closed at 7018 (-1.71%) during the day and 7133 (+1.64%) in the night session. The spot price and basis in different periods are given [26]. - Related News: The inventory in the East China main port of styrene has increased, and the upstream pure - benzene port inventory has also increased [26]. - Logic Analysis: The supply is expected to increase, and the port inventory is expected to increase from a low level, with the supply - demand relationship weakening [27]. - Trading Strategy: Oscillation weakly; options are on hold; sell call options [28]. PVC and Caustic Soda - Market Review: The spot price of PVC has slightly decreased, and the spot price of caustic soda in different regions has changed [29]. - Related News: The price of caustic soda in some factories has changed, and the Indian BIS hearing has no news yet [30]. - Logic Analysis: PVC's supply - demand situation is expected to be weak in the medium - to - long - term, and caustic soda's 09 - contract is expected to be weak, with the medium - term trend being bearish [30][31]. - Trading Strategy: For single - side trading, go short on caustic soda at high prices and hold short positions on PVC; for arbitrage, arrange a 7 - 9 reverse spread when the spot weakens; options are on hold [32]. Plastic and PP - Market Review: The spot price of LLDPE in different regions has changed, and the spot price of PP in different regions has decreased [32]. - Related News: The maintenance ratio of PE and PP has decreased [33]. - Logic Analysis: The new production capacity is being realized, and the downstream demand is weak. The 09 - contract's supply - demand situation is expected to be weak [34]. - Trading Strategy: Short - and medium - term weakness, hold short positions; options are on hold; arbitrage is on hold [34]. Glass - Market Review: The glass futures 09 - contract closed at 954 (-2.85%) during the day and 965 (+1.15%) in the night session. The spot price in different regions has changed [34][35]. - Related News: The China May Caixin Manufacturing PMI has contracted, and the price of the domestic float - glass market has decreased slightly. A glass production line has restarted [36]. - Logic Analysis: The supply pressure is increasing, and the demand is affected by the real estate cycle. The short - term price is expected to oscillate weakly, and the medium - term focus is on cost reduction and factory cold - repair [37]. - Trading Strategy: Price oscillates weakly [38]. Soda Ash - Market Review: The soda - ash futures 09 - contract closed at 1185 (-1.2%) during the day and 1213 (+2.4%) in the night session. The spot price in different regions has changed [38]. - Related News: A soda - ash device has resumed operation, and the domestic soda - ash market is adjusting weakly [39][40]. - Logic Analysis: The supply is increasing, the cost is weakening, and the demand is stable in the short - term but worrying in the medium - term. The price is expected to decline gradually [40]. - Trading Strategy: Bearish judgment, gradual

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content Core Views - **Crude Oil**: Short - term: range - bound, Brent between 60 - 70 USD/barrel; long - term: potential for price rebound if certain conditions are met [2] - **Asphalt**: Stronger than the cost end, expected to be high - level range - bound, with the BU main contract between 3400 - 3600 [5][6] - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG)**: Fundamentals are weak, market under pressure during the summer off - season [7][8] - **Fuel Oil**: High - sulfur fuel oil has certain support, low - sulfur fuel oil supply is increasing and demand is weak [10] - **Natural Gas**: US natural gas prices may rebound; European natural gas prices are supported but face uncertainties [11][12] - **PX**: High - level range - bound, supply is tight, downstream PTA supply is expected to increase and demand may decrease [13] - **PTA**: High - level range - bound, supply is expected to increase and demand may decrease, processing fees may be compressed [15] - **Ethylene Glycol**: High - level range - bound, maintaining a tight balance [18] - **Short Fiber**: Processing fees are expected to be strongly supported, with some supply changes [20] - **PET Bottle Chip**: Processing fees may be suppressed, with stable production and weak downstream demand [22] - **Styrene**: Range - bound and weakening, supply is expected to increase and demand is weak [25] - **Plastic PP**: Short - and medium - term: sell on rallies, with new capacity and weak demand [27] - **PVC and Caustic Soda**: PVC: rebound and sell; caustic soda: short - term stable, medium - term bearish [29][30] - **Soda Ash**: Range - bound, short - term wait - and - see, bearish outlook [32][34] - **Glass**: Price is range - bound and weakening, short - term weak demand, medium - term focus on cost and cold repair [36] - **Urea**: Short - term weak, range - bound, pay attention to export and demand [37][38] - **Methanol**: Sell on rallies, supply is abundant and inventory is increasing [39][40] - **Log**: Spot is stable and weak, futures may have valuation repair [42][44] - **Double - offset Paper**: Market is stable, price increase is difficult to transmit due to weak demand [44] - **Corrugated Paper**: Market is stable with some increases, but terminal demand is weak [45] - **Pulp**: Try to go long on the SP main 07 contract, pay attention to inventory changes [48] - **Butadiene Rubber**: Wait - and - see on the BR main 07 contract, pay attention to support levels [51] - **Natural Rubber and No. 20 Rubber**: Hold short positions on the RU main 09 contract, wait - and - see on the NR main 07 contract [55] Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Review**: WTI2507 closed at 61.53 USD/barrel, up 0.33 USD/barrel (+0.54%); Brent2507 closed at 64.78 USD/barrel, up 0.34 USD/barrel (+0.53%); SC main contract 2507 fell 7.8 to 454.7 CNY/barrel, up 2.1 to 456.8 CNY/barrel in night trading [1] - **Related News**: US - EU trade negotiation deadline extended; US - China trade talks may resume; Iran - US talks made limited progress [1] - **Logic Analysis**: Short - term: supply initiative in OPEC's hands, possible price pressure if OPEC+ accelerates in July; long - term: potential for price rebound [2] - **Trading Strategy**: Short - term range - bound, medium - term weak; gasoline and diesel crack spreads weaken; wait - and - see on options [2] Asphalt - **Market Review**: BU2507 closed at 3521 points (-0.09%) in night trading; BU2509 closed at 3472 points (-0.03%) in night trading [3] - **Related News**: Shandong market prices down, other regions stable; demand affected by weather [3][4] - **Logic Analysis**: Stronger than cost end, supply tightens, demand affected by rainy season, high - level range - bound [5][6] - **Trading Strategy**: High - level range - bound; asphalt - crude oil spread high - level range - bound; wait - and - see on options [6] Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) - **Market Review**: PG2506 closed at 4116 (-0.91%) in night trading; PG2507 closed at 4064 (-0.54%) in night trading [6] - **Related News**: Southern market stable, northern market with minor changes, supply is abundant and demand is weak [6] - **Logic Analysis**: Cost - end price down, supply increases, demand is weak in the combustion end and may increase in the chemical field, market under pressure [7][8] - **Trading Strategy**: Not provided in a clear format Fuel Oil - **Market Review**: FU07 closed at 2992 (-0.40%) in night trading; LU07 closed at 3520 (+0.57%) in night trading [9] - **Related News**: Japan's fuel oil inventory changes; Singapore's market trading situation [9] - **Logic Analysis**: High - sulfur fuel oil has support, low - sulfur fuel oil supply increases and demand is weak [10] - **Trading Strategy**: Wait - and - see on single - side trading; close short positions on LU7 - 8 spread at low levels [11] Natural Gas - **Market Review**: HH contract closed at 3.344 (+2.49%); TTF closed at 36.45 (+0.26%); JKM closed at 12.585 (+1.74%) [11] - **Related News**: US natural gas inventory and production changes; European gas supply and demand situation [11][12] - **Logic Analysis**: US gas prices may rebound due to increased demand; European gas prices are supported but face uncertainties [11][12] - **Trading Strategy**: Go long on HH at low levels; range - bound and bullish on TTF [12] PX - **Market Review**: PX2509 main contract closed at 6652 (+38/+0.57%) on Friday, 6764 (+112/+1.68%) in night trading [12] - **Related News**: PX and PTA operating rates; polyester sales situation [13] - **Logic Analysis**: Supply is tight, downstream PTA supply is expected to increase and demand may decrease [13] - **Trading Strategy**: High - level range - bound; long PX and short PTA; sell both call and put options [14] PTA - **Market Review**: TA509 main contract closed at 4716 (+14/+0.30%) on Friday, 4788 (+72/+1.53%) in night trading [14] - **Related News**: PTA and polyester operating rates; polyester sales situation [14][15] - **Logic Analysis**: Supply is expected to increase and demand may decrease, processing fees may be compressed [15] - **Trading Strategy**: High - level range - bound; long PX and short PTA; sell both call and put options [15] Ethylene Glycol - **Market Review**: EG2509 main contract closed at 4403 (-8/-0.18%) on Friday, 4417 (+14/+0.32%) in night trading [15] - **Related News**: Ethylene glycol operating rate; polyester sales situation [16] - **Logic Analysis**: Supply and demand gap may narrow, maintaining a tight balance [18] - **Trading Strategy**: High - level range - bound; wait - and - see on spreads; sell call options [19] Short Fiber - **Market Review**: PF2507 main contract closed at 6450 (-2/-0.03%) on Friday, 6524 (+74/1.15%) in night trading [19] - **Related News**: Short fiber operating rate and inventory; polyester downstream operating rates [19] - **Logic Analysis**: Operating rate decreases, inventory increases, processing fees are expected to be strongly supported [20] - **Trading Strategy**: High - level range - bound; short PTA and long PF; wait - and - see on options [23] PET Bottle Chip - **Market Review**: PR2507 main contract closed at 5988 (-4/-0.07%) on Friday, 6054 (+66/+1.10%) in night trading [22] - **Related News**: Bottle chip operating rate; export quotation situation [22] - **Logic Analysis**: Operating rate is stable, downstream demand is weak, processing fees may be suppressed [22] - **Trading Strategy**: Range - bound consolidation; wait - and - see on spreads; sell call options [23] Styrene - **Market Review**: EB2507 main contract closed at 7281 (-5/-0.07%) on Friday, 7317 (+36/+0.49%) in night trading [24] - **Related News**: Styrene and downstream operating rates [24] - **Logic Analysis**: Supply is expected to increase and demand is weak, inventory may increase slightly [25] - **Trading Strategy**: Range - bound and weakening; wait - and - see on spreads; sell call options [25] Plastic PP - **Market Review**: LLDPE and PP spot price changes in different regions [25][26] - **Related News**: PE and PP inventory changes [26] - **Logic Analysis**: New capacity, weak demand, short - and medium - term sell on rallies [27] - **Trading Strategy**: Short - and medium - term sell on rallies; wait - and - see on spreads and options [28] PVC and Caustic Soda - **Market Review**: PVC and caustic soda spot price changes [28][29] - **Related News**: Shandong liquid chlorine price; PVC and caustic soda inventory and operating rate changes [29][30] - **Logic Analysis**: PVC: long - term oversupply, sell on rebounds; caustic soda: short - term stable, medium - term bearish [29][30] - **Trading Strategy**: PVC: sell on rebounds; caustic soda: short - term stable, medium - term bearish, sell on rallies; wait - and - see on spreads and options [31] Soda Ash - **Market Review**: Soda ash futures and spot price changes [31] - **Related News**: Soda ash production, inventory, and profit changes; demand from downstream industries [32] - **Logic Analysis**: Range - bound, short - term wait - and - see, bearish outlook [32][33] - **Trading Strategy**: Range - bound, wait - and - see, bearish; short soda ash and long glass; wait - and - see on options [34] Glass - **Market Review**: Glass futures and spot price changes [34] - **Related News**: Glass production, inventory, and profit changes; market price changes in different regions [34][35] - **Logic Analysis**: Price is range - bound and weakening, short - term weak demand, medium - term focus on cost and cold repair [36] - **Trading Strategy**: Price is range - bound and weakening; long glass and short soda ash; wait - and - see on options [36] Urea - **Market Review**: Urea futures and spot price changes [36][37] - **Related News**: Urea production, inventory, and export policy [37][38] - **Logic Analysis**: Short - term weak, range - bound, pay attention to export and demand [37][38] - **Trading Strategy**: Short - term weak; go long on 9 - 1 spread at low levels; sell put options [38] Methanol - **Market Review**: Methanol futures and spot price changes [38][39] - **Related News**: International methanol production and operating rate changes [39] - **Logic Analysis**: Supply is abundant and inventory is increasing, sell on rallies [39][40] - **Trading Strategy**: Sell on rallies; wait - and - see on spreads; sell call options [41] Log - **Market Review**: Log spot and futures price changes [41][42] - **Related News**: Log arrival volume changes [42] - **Logic Analysis**: Spot is stable and weak, futures may have valuation repair [42][44] - **Trading Strategy**: Spot: wait - and - see; futures: go long for aggressive investors; pay attention to 9 - 11 spread; wait - and - see on options [44] Double - offset Paper - **Market Review**: Double - offset paper price changes in different regions [44] - **Related News**: Market order and price change situation [44] - **Logic Analysis**: Market is stable, price increase is difficult to transmit due to weak demand [44] - **Trading Strategy**: Not provided Corrugated Paper - **Market Review**: Corrugated paper and box - board paper price changes [45] - **Related News**: Market price and demand situation [45] - **Logic Analysis**: Market is stable with some increases, but terminal demand is weak [45] - **Trading Strategy**: Not provided Pulp - **Market Review**: Pulp futures price changes; spot price of different pulp types [46][47] - **Related News**: Pulp inventory changes; company performance [48] - **Logic Analysis**: Try to go long on the SP main 07 contract, pay attention to inventory changes [48] - **Trading Strategy**: Try to go long on the SP main 07 contract; hold 5*SP2509 - 2*RU2509 spread [48][49] Butadiene Rubber - **Market Review**: Butadiene rubber and related product price changes [49] - **Related News**: Styrene market situation [50] - **Logic Analysis**: Wait - and - see on the BR main 07 contract, pay attention to support levels [51] - **Trading Strategy**: Wait - and - see on the BR main 07 contract; pay attention to the support of BR2509 - RU2509 spread; wait - and - see on options [51][52] Natural Rubber and No. 20 Rubber - **Market Review**: Natural rubber, No. 20 rubber, and related product price changes [52][53][54] - **Related News**: Thai rubber import policy [54] - **Logic Analysis**: Hold short positions on the RU main 09 contract, wait - and - see on the NR main 07 contract [54][55] - **Trading Strategy**: Hold short positions on the RU main 09 contract; wait - and - see on the NR main 07 contract; hold NR2509 - RU2509 spread; wait - and - see on options [55]

| | LPG早报 | | | | | | | | 研究中心能化团队 2025/05/21 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | L P G | | | | | | | | | | | | | 日期 | 丙烷CFR华 丙烷CIF日 CP预测合 华南液化气 山东液化气 山东醚后碳四 山东烷基化油 主力基差 | 华东液化 气 | | 南 | 本 | MB丙烷 现货 | 同价 | | | 纸面进口 利润 | | | 2025/05/1 4 | 5000 | 4931 | 4670 | 625 | 570 | 80 | 582 | 4690 | 8000 | -160 | 514 | | 2025/05/1 5 | 4940 | 4909 | 4600 | 620 | 564 | 78 | 583 | 4640 | 7800 | -179 | 531 | | 2025/05/1 6 | 4940 | 4906 | 4590 | 615 | 565 | 78 | 587 | 4520 | 775 ...