Report Industry Investment Ratings - Copper: ★☆☆ [1] - Aluminum: ★☆★ [1] - Alumina: ★☆☆ [1] - Cast Aluminum Alloy: Not clearly rated [1] - Zinc: ☆☆☆ [1] - Nickel and Stainless Steel: ★☆☆ (implied from context) [1] - Tin: ★★★ (implied from context) [1] - Lithium Carbonate: ★☆☆ [1] - Industrial Silicon: ☆☆☆ [1] - Polysilicon: ☆☆☆ [1] Core Views - The prices of various non - ferrous metals are affected by different factors such as supply - demand relationships, macroeconomic data, and policy expectations. Each metal has its own short - term and medium - term trends and investment suggestions [2][3][4] Summary by Metal Copper - Friday saw Shanghai copper oscillating with a positive line, supported by medium - term moving averages. The spot copper price dropped to 79,180 yuan. The market is concerned about US retail sales and industrial output data. It is believed that there is significant resistance above the copper price, and short positions at high levels should be held [2] Aluminum & Alumina & Aluminum Alloy - Shanghai aluminum rebounded slightly today, with the East China spot at par. The social inventory of aluminum ingots increased slightly by 0.1 million tons, while that of aluminum rods decreased by 0.9 million tons. The start - up of downstream leading enterprises stabilized. The peak of off - season inventory accumulation for aluminum ingots may occur in August, and the inventory is likely to remain low this year. Shanghai aluminum will mainly oscillate in the short term, with resistance at 21,000 yuan. Cast aluminum alloy fluctuates with Shanghai aluminum. The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and the profit of the aluminum alloy industry is poor but has certain resilience. The spot - AL cross - variety spread may gradually narrow. The operating capacity of alumina is at a historical high, and both industry inventory and SHFE warehouse receipts are rising. As supply surplus becomes more apparent, the spot index in various regions is falling, and there is adjustment pressure on the alumina futures [3] Zinc - LME zinc inventory continued to decline to 77,500 tons, with the 0 - 3 month spread close to par. The low inventory in the outer market supports the price. Short - position funds are continuously reducing their positions, and LME zinc is expected to oscillate strongly. The import window remains closed, and the outer market is pulling up the inner market. The domestic Shanghai zinc has fully priced in the weak reality and weak expectations, and the term structure has flattened. There is a lack of resonance between macro sentiment and fundamentals, and short - term directional signals are insufficient. The supply of mines at home and abroad continues to increase, and there is still room to short mine profits on the futures. The idea of short - allocating on rebounds in the medium term remains unchanged, waiting for short - selling opportunities above 23,500 yuan/ton [4] Aluminum (Second entry) - LME aluminum inventory is at a high level, and the outer market is dominated by surplus, oscillating weakly. The import window remains closed. As the delivery approaches, the SMM social inventory of aluminum has increased to 71,700 tons. Recently, the futures - spot spread has narrowed, and the profit from delivering to the warehouse is insufficient. The subsequent domestic lead ingot inventory may become invisible, and the growth space of the visible social inventory in the future is expected to be limited. The aluminum price is oscillating at a low level, and there is reluctance to sell recycled aluminum. The SMM precision price is inverted by 25 yuan/ton. There is limited downward space for lead. Downstream purchasing on dips has improved, but the terminal consumption has not recovered. There is potential demand in the data center UPS power and energy storage sectors. It is advisable to hold long positions near 16,600 yuan/ton. At the same time, there are still 10 days until the expiration of near - month options, and opportunities in the last - trading - day options can be considered [6] Nickel and Stainless Steel - Shanghai nickel rebounded, and the market trading was active. The domestic anti - dumping theme is coming to an end, and nickel with relatively poor fundamentals will return to its fundamentals. The premium for Jinchuan nickel is 2350 yuan, the premium for imported nickel is 350 yuan, and the premium for electrowon nickel is 50 yuan. The price of high - nickel ferro - nickel is 921 yuan per nickel point, and the upstream price support has weakened recently. In terms of inventory, the ferro - nickel inventory remains basically unchanged at 33,000 tons, the pure nickel inventory has decreased by 1000 tons to 39,000 tons, and the stainless steel inventory has decreased by 1000 tons to 966,000 tons, but the overall inventory level is still high. Pay attention to signs of the end of de - stocking. Shanghai nickel is in a rebound and should be regarded as oscillating [7] Tin - Shanghai tin recovered part of its decline and closed above the MA40 daily average line. A small amount of LME tin inventory flowed in this week, and its persistence should be tracked. In the domestic market, pay attention to the maintenance and production plans of large factories. It is believed that there is room to reduce the high social inventory in the domestic market. Today, the spot tin is reported at 266,000 yuan, and there is still a real - time premium of 700 yuan on the last trading day. Short - term long positions at low levels should be held based on the MA60 daily average line [8] Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate strengthened at the end of the session, and the market trading was active. The delivery problem in September restricts the upward space. The spot price is reported at 83,000 yuan. Downstream inquiry activities are active, and the spot market transaction has improved. The total market inventory has slightly declined to 142,000 tons, the smelter inventory has decreased by 3000 tons to 52,000 tons, the downstream inventory has increased by 3000 tons to 46,000 tons, and the trader inventory has decreased by 1000 tons to 44,000 tons. The transfer of cargo rights is obvious, and downstream enterprises are increasing their replenishment efforts as the price回调. The latest quotation of Australian ore is nearly 1000 US dollars. The futures price fluctuates greatly, and risk management should be noted [9] Industrial Silicon - The industrial silicon futures closed slightly higher, turning positive at the end of the session due to the sentiment transmission from polysilicon. On the spot side, the price of Xinjiang 421 silicon remained stable at 9050 yuan/ton (SMM), down 100 yuan/ton. Under the background of increased production by large factories in Xinjiang and in Sichuan and Yunnan, there is still pressure from high - level hedging on the futures. However, SMM expects the polysilicon production schedule to exceed 130,000 tons, with a clear marginal increase in demand. Coupled with the expectation of photovoltaic policies, the support below the futures is strong, and it will mainly oscillate in the short term [10] Polysilicon - The polysilicon futures increased significantly in position and rose. The expectation of a photovoltaic conference next week is rising, and the sentiment of policy benefits is fermenting again. At the same time, some terminals have begun to accept the component price of 0.68 yuan/W. However, it should be noted that under the expectation of a structural decline in terminal demand in September, the component price and price will still be under pressure. In the polysilicon segment, the production in August is expected to increase significantly to 130,000 tons, and the high - inventory pattern still restricts the upward space of its price. In operation, short - term news related to the photovoltaic conference has a significant impact on sentiment. The current futures is close to the previous high. Long positions can consider partial profit - taking, and at the same time, pay attention to position control and the performance at the resistance level of 53,000 yuan/ton [11]

中芯国际联合首席执行官赵海军：产能仍然不足，产能紧张状况将持续到10月份。经过几个月的时间，大家做了更有余地的安排，关税的影响可能会变得更小。原先我们担心的关税政策是否硬着陆并没有发生，至少在当下还没有发生。 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views - The crude oil market is affected by factors such as the weakening of the near - month spread, stubborn CPI in the US, and potential sanctions on Russia, with short - term volatility and a mid - term bearish outlook [1][2]. - The asphalt market has a neutral - to - high valuation, with short - term supply - demand weakness and expected high - level fluctuations in unilateral prices and a strengthening trend in crack spreads [3][5]. - The liquefied gas market has sufficient supply and weak demand, and the price is expected to run weakly [5][8]. - The natural gas market in the US is expected to see higher prices due to strong demand and increased LNG exports, while the European market is expected to be volatile due to stable supply and weak demand [8][9]. - The fuel oil market has different situations for high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oils, with a wait - and - see attitude for trading [10][12]. - The PX, PTA, ethylene glycol, short - fiber, PR, and other polyester - related markets are expected to fluctuate and be sorted out, with a wait - and - see attitude for trading [13][15][16]. - The styrene market is expected to show an oscillating trend due to factors such as supply and demand changes and inventory accumulation [23][25]. - The PVC market has a weak supply - demand situation, with a bearish view on prices in the medium and short term, while the caustic soda market has a reduced upward drive, and short - term long positions are recommended to take profits on rallies [26][28]. - The PP and PE markets have a large capacity release pressure in the third quarter, with a bearish view on prices in the medium and short term [29][31]. - The soda ash market is expected to show a relatively strong performance in price, with a wait - and - see attitude for trading [32][35]. - The glass market is affected by the adjustment of real - estate expectations, and attention should be paid to possible logical conversions [35][37]. - The methanol market is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term, with a wait - and - see attitude for trading and selling call options [37][40]. - The urea market is expected to be strong in the short term but weak in the short - term operation due to factors such as supply, demand, and export policies [40][42]. - The log market has a wait - and - see attitude for trading, and attention should be paid to the 9 - 11 reverse spread [43][46]. - The corrugated paper market is in a weak pattern, with a wait - and - see attitude for trading [46]. - The double - offset paper market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, with paper mills having a strong willingness to support prices [48][50]. - The pulp market has a wait - and - see attitude for trading, and attention should be paid to the pressure at the high point on Tuesday [51][53]. - The butadiene rubber market has a wait - and - see attitude for trading, and attention should be paid to the pressure at the high point last Thursday [54][56]. - The natural rubber and 20 - number rubber markets have a wait - and - see attitude for trading, and attention should be paid to the pressure at the high points, and the RU2509 - NR2509 spread can be considered for intervention [57][59]. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Review**: WTI2508 contract settled at $66.52, down $0.46/barrel, a month - on - month decrease of - 0.69%; Brent2509 contract settled at $68.71, down $0.50/barrel, a month - on - month decrease of - 0.72%. SC main contract 2509 fell 2.6 to 509.3 yuan/barrel, and at night it fell 3.7 to 505.6 yuan/barrel. The Brent main - to - next - month spread was $0.94/barrel [1]. - **Related News**: US June CPI rebounded to 2.7% year - on - year, core CPI rose 2.9% year - on - year. There are potential sanctions on Russia, and the US commercial crude oil inventory increased by 19.1 million barrels in the week ending July 11, 2025 [1][2]. - **Logical Analysis**: The near - month spread of crude oil weakened, the short - term supply - demand contradiction was slightly weakened. The US CPI in June was still stubborn, the expectation of interest rate cuts was weakened, and the uncertainty of the macro - economic outlook increased. Potential sanctions on Russia may increase market disturbances [2]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short - term volatility is weak, and pay attention to the support around $68.2 for Brent. Gasoline and diesel crack spreads are stable, and options are on hold [2][3]. Asphalt - **Market Review**: BU2509 closed at 3612 points at night (- 0.14%), BU2512 closed at 3433 points at night (- 0.17%). The spot price in Shandong on July 15 was 3550 - 4070 yuan/ton, and in the East China region it was 3670 - 3800 yuan/ton [3]. - **Related News**: The mainstream transaction prices in different regions were stable, with some price adjustments due to factors such as supply and demand and weather [3][4]. - **Logical Analysis**: Oil prices fell from a high level, the asphalt crack spread increased passively, the industrial chain profit was repaired, and the valuation was neutral - to - high. The supply and demand were weak in the short term, and both were expected to increase before the peak season at the end of the third quarter [5]. - **Trading Strategy**: High - level fluctuations, the asphalt - crude oil spread is strong, and options are on hold [5]. Liquefied Gas - **Market Review**: PG2508 closed at 4106 at night (- 1.3%), PG2509 closed at 4016 at night (- 1.06%). The spot prices in different regions varied [5]. - **Related News**: The market trends in different regions were different, with fluctuations and adjustments [5][6]. - **Logical Analysis**: The supply decreased last week, the international ship arrivals increased, the demand in the combustion and chemical fields was weak, and the inventories at ports and factories increased [8]. - **Trading Strategy**: The price is expected to run weakly [8]. Natural Gas - **Market Review**: TTF closed at 34.445 (- 2.85%), HH closed at 3.521 (+ 1.64%), JKM closed at 12.3 (- 2.88%) [8]. - **Logical Analysis**: In the US, the natural gas inventory increased last week, the production increased, the demand was strong, and the LNG export volume increased, so the price was expected to rise. In Europe, the supply was stable, the demand was weak, and the price fell [8][9]. - **Trading Strategy**: For HH, buy on dips; for TTF, it is expected to oscillate [9]. Fuel Oil - **Market Review**: FU09 contract closed at 22873 at night (+ 0.21%), LU09 closed at 3642 at night (- 0.14%). The Singapore paper - cargo market had different month - spreads [10]. - **Related News**: Malaysia will implement regulations on illegal ship - to - ship crude oil transfers, and the sales volume of marine fuel oil in Singapore in the first half of 2025 decreased slightly [11]. - **Logical Analysis**: The high arrival of domestic high - sulfur spot hit the domestic high - sulfur price. The high - sulfur feed demand was expected to increase, and the low - sulfur supply increased with no specific demand driver [12][13]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait and see for unilateral trading, and pay attention to the digestion rhythm of near - term high - sulfur spot for arbitrage [13]. PX - **Market Review**: The PX2509 main contract closed at 6688 (- 90/- 1.33%) yesterday and 6712 (+ 24/+ 0.36%) at night. The spot price of PX decreased [13]. - **Related News**: The sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were weak [14]. - **Logical Analysis**: The supply of PX was still tight, the downstream demand was lack of support in the off - season, and it was expected to oscillate following the cost side [14]. - **Trading Strategy**: Oscillate and sort out, wait and see for arbitrage and options [14]. PTA - **Market Review**: The TA509 main contract closed at 4696 (- 44/- 0.93%) yesterday and 4702 (+ 6/+ 0.13%) at night. The spot basis was stable [15]. - **Related News**: The sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were weak [15]. - **Logical Analysis**: The supply of PTA was expected to increase, the downstream demand was weak, and the processing fee was compressed [15]. - **Trading Strategy**: Oscillate and sort out, wait and see for arbitrage and options [16]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Review**: The EG2509 futures main contract closed at 4322 (- 35/- 0.80%) yesterday and 4301 (- 21/- 0.49%) at night. The spot basis was stable [16]. - **Related News**: The sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were weak [17]. - **Logical Analysis**: The supply of ethylene glycol was expected to increase, and there was an expectation of inventory accumulation in August - September, which would put pressure on the price [17]. - **Trading Strategy**: Oscillate and sort out, wait and see for arbitrage and options [18]. Short - Fiber - **Market Review**: The PF2508 main contract closed at 6368 (- 68/- 1.06%) during the day and 6358 (- 10/- 0.16%) at night. The spot price in different regions was stable [18]. - **Related News**: The sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were weak [18]. - **Logical Analysis**: The short - fiber price followed the decline of polyester raw materials, the processing difference continued to expand, and the production and sales were average [18][19]. - **Trading Strategy**: No specific strategy provided, wait and see attitude implied [19]. PR (Bottle Chips) - **Market Review**: The PR2509 main contract closed at 5870 (- 50/- 0.84%) yesterday and 5874 (+ 4/+ 0.07%) at night. The spot market trading atmosphere was average [19]. - **Related News**: The export quotation of polyester bottle - chip factories was slightly reduced [19]. - **Logical Analysis**: The raw material futures fell, the bottle - chip processing fee strengthened, and the production was reduced. It was expected to oscillate and sort out following the raw material end [19]. - **Trading Strategy**: Oscillate and sort out, wait and see for arbitrage and options [21]. Styrene - **Market Review**: The BZ2503 main contract closed at 6144 (- 45/- 0.73%) during the day and 6164 (+ 20/+ 0.33%) at night. The EB2508 main contract closed at 7340 (- 138/- 1.85%) during the day and 7332 (- 8/- 0.11%) at night. The spot price of pure benzene and styrene changed [23]. - **Related News**: The styrene inventory in the East China main port increased, and some styrene devices were shut down for maintenance [23][24]. - **Logical Analysis**: The pure benzene price was expected to oscillate and sort out, and the styrene price was expected to show an oscillating trend due to supply and demand changes and inventory accumulation [24][25]. - **Trading Strategy**: Oscillate and sort out, wait and see for arbitrage and options [25][26]. PVC and Caustic Soda - **Market Review**: The PVC spot market was slightly weak, and the caustic soda spot price in different regions was stable or slightly increased [26][27]. - **Related News**: The price of liquid chlorine in Shandong decreased [27]. - **Logical Analysis**: The PVC supply and demand were weak, the inventory increased, and there was a risk of new device production. The caustic soda price had a peak - season expectation, but the upward drive was reduced [27][28]. - **Trading Strategy**: For caustic soda, take profits on rallies for short - term long positions; for PVC, be bearish on the price in the medium and short term. Wait and see for arbitrage and options [29]. PP and PE - **Market Review**: The LLDPE market price was slightly weak, and the PP spot price in different regions decreased [29]. - **Related News**: The PP and PE maintenance ratios increased [29]. - **Logical Analysis**: There was a large capacity release pressure in the third quarter, the terminal demand was weak, and the price was bearish in the medium and short term [31]. - **Trading Strategy**: Be bearish on the price in the medium and short term, wait and see for arbitrage and options [32]. Soda Ash - **Market Review**: The soda ash futures main 09 contract closed at 1214 yuan/ton (- 27/- 2.2%), and at night it closed at 1211 yuan (- 15/- 1.22%). The spot price in different regions changed [32]. - **Related News**: The domestic soda ash factory inventory increased, and some devices had maintenance or production plans [33]. - **Logical Analysis**: The soda ash supply decreased, the demand was weak, the inventory increased, and the profit decreased. The market expected the real - estate sector to adjust [33][34]. - **Trading Strategy**: The price is expected to be relatively strong, wait and see for arbitrage and options [35]. Glass - **Market Review**: The glass futures main 09 contract closed at 1071 yuan/ton (- 31/- 2.81%), and at night it closed at 1069 yuan/ton (- 13/- 1.2%). The spot price in different regions was stable or slightly increased [35]. - **Related News**: The glass market price was stable with some increases, and the deep - processing order days decreased [35][37]. - **Logical Analysis**: The glass price was affected by the adjustment of real - estate expectations, the supply decreased last week, and attention should be paid to production and sales in the short term and cost and cold - repair in the medium term [37]. - **Trading Strategy**: Pay attention to possible logical conversions, wait and see for arbitrage and options [37]. Methanol - **Market Review**: The methanol futures closed at 2374 at night (- 18/- 0.75%). The spot price in different regions varied [37][38]. - **Related News**: The weekly signing volume of methanol production enterprises in the Northwest increased [39]. - **Logical Analysis**: The international methanol device start - up rate increased, the import recovered, the domestic supply was loose, and the price was expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [39][40]. - **Trading Strategy**: Oscillate weakly, wait and see for arbitrage, and sell call options [40]. Urea - **Market Review**: The urea futures fell to 1731 (- 33/- 1.87%). The spot price decreased slightly [40][41]. - **Related News**: The urea daily production increased, and the new Indian tender price was announced [41]. - **Logical Analysis**: The urea supply was large, the demand was weak, the inventory was high, and the price was expected to be strong in the short term but weak in the short - term operation [41][42]. - **Trading Strategy**: Oscillate weakly in the short term, wait and see for arbitrage, and sell call options on rallies [42][43]. Log - **Market Review**: The log spot market was stable with some price decreases. The 9 - month contract price rose slightly [43][44]. - **Related News**: The import volume of logs and sawn timber in June decreased, and the real - estate development data was not good [43]. - **Logical Analysis**: The downstream demand was weak, and the price support and trading volume needed to be considered. The scale difference supported the disk price [44][46]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait and see for the near - month contract, pay attention to the 9 - 11 reverse spread, and wait and see for options [46]. Corrugated Paper - **Market Review**: The corrugated and box - board paper market was stable with some individual adjustments [46]. - **Related News**: The price of waste yellow - board paper increased, and the market trading atmosphere was average [46]. - **Logical Analysis**: The corrugated paper market was in a weak pattern, with sufficient supply and weak demand [46

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - The demand side of polysilicon still faces significant pressure. Although the polysilicon price increased last week, giving most manufacturers a chance to turn losses into profits, this is not the norm. Most manufacturers will start a new round of hedging, and the polysilicon inventory is at a high level. The short - term speculative market is expected to end, and it is advisable to buy put options appropriately [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main polysilicon contract is 42,470 yuan/ton, up 705 yuan; the position of the main contract is 69,821 lots, down 8,507 lots; the price difference between August and September polysilicon is 350 yuan, up 20 yuan; the price difference between polysilicon and industrial silicon is 33,685 yuan/ton, up 615 yuan [2] Spot Market - The spot price of polysilicon is 45,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the basis of polysilicon is 3,030 yuan/ton, down 705 yuan; the weekly average price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon is 4.94 US dollars/kg, up 0.72 US dollars; the average prices of cauliflower - type, dense - type, and re - feed type polysilicon are 30 yuan/kg, 36 yuan/kg, and 33 yuan/kg respectively, all unchanged [2] Upstream Situation - The closing price of the main industrial silicon contract is 8,785 yuan/ton, up 90 yuan; the spot price of industrial silicon is 9,150 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan; the monthly output of industrial silicon is 305,200 tons, up 5,500 tons; the monthly export volume of industrial silicon is 52,919.65 tons, down 12,197.89 tons; the monthly import volume of industrial silicon is 2,211.36 tons, up 71.51 tons; the total social inventory of industrial silicon is 552,000 tons, up 10,000 tons [2] Industry Situation - The monthly output of polysilicon is 95,000 tons, down 1,000 tons; the monthly import volume of polysilicon is 793 tons, down 161 tons; the weekly spot price of imported polysilicon in China is 5.04 US dollars/kg, up 0.14 US dollars; the monthly average import price of polysilicon in China is 2.19 US dollars/ton, down 0.14 US dollars [2] Downstream Situation - The monthly output of solar cells is 70,569,000 kilowatts, down 1,359,000 kilowatts; the average price of solar cells is 0.82 RMB/W, up 0.01 RMB/W; the monthly export volume of photovoltaic modules is 103,399,980 pieces, up 19,610,660 pieces; the monthly import volume of photovoltaic modules is 12,098,490 pieces, down 8,021,950 pieces; the monthly average import price of photovoltaic modules is 0.33 US dollars/piece, up 0.04 US dollars/piece; the weekly comprehensive price index of the photovoltaic industry (SPI) for polysilicon is 22.29, up 0.62 [2] Industry News - Trump said that if Russia fails to reach an agreement on the Russia - Ukraine conflict within 50 days, the US will impose a 100% secondary tariff on Russia and also impose secondary sanctions on countries that buy Russian oil. The Brazilian vice - president denied the news that Brazil asked the US to reduce tariffs to 30% and postpone the tariff deadline by 90 days, and Brazil will announce a reciprocal counter - measure decree on US tariffs. The EU is preparing to impose counter - tariffs on 72 billion US dollars of US goods. The Thai Ministry of Finance is considering zero - tariff on more US imports. The US Department of Commerce has launched a 232 investigation into the import of drones and polysilicon [2] Macro - aspect - Currently, the CPI has turned positive, and the PPI continues to weaken. The market's expectations for the end - of - month meeting have increased. On the supply side of polysilicon, the overall output of polysilicon enterprises has increased, with some enterprises increasing production while others are under maintenance, and the self - disciplined production reduction measures have not significantly expanded the capacity fluctuation [2]

Core Insights - Xiaomi's first SUV, YU7, has commenced delivery in 58 cities, with CEO Lei Jun personally participating in the delivery ceremony [1] - This marks the third time Lei Jun has personally delivered a new model, following the SU7 and SU7 Ultra [2] - As of June 2025, Xiaomi's automotive division reported over 25,000 units delivered in June alone, indicating strong production efforts [3] Group 1 - The YU7 delivery event was held at Xiaomi's Beijing headquarters, with Lei Jun engaging with customers [1] - Lei Jun noted a clear preference for the Max high-end version among YU7 users, with popular colors being shadow blue, pearl white, and flowing gold [2] - The YU7 underwent extensive testing, with 653 vehicles covering 6.49 million kilometers across 296 cities [2] Group 2 - Xiaomi's automotive division is facing a backlog of orders for the SU7, with delivery times exceeding 30 weeks [3] - The first phase of the factory has a designed capacity of 150,000 units, but current production is limited to 20,000-30,000 units per month due to operational constraints [3] - The second phase of the factory is expected to begin production soon, which may alleviate some of the delivery backlog [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Oils and Fats**: Weakening with fluctuations [5] - **Protein Meal**: Fluctuating [7] - **Corn and Starch**: Fluctuating [8][9] - **Hogs**: Fluctuating [2][9] - **Natural Rubber**: Fluctuating horizontally [9][10][11] - **Synthetic Rubber**: Maintaining range-bound fluctuations [12] - **Cotton**: Fluctuating in the short term, with a reference range of 13,500 - 14,300 yuan/ton [13] - **Sugar**: Weakening with fluctuations in the long term, rebounding with fluctuations in the short term [14][16] - **Pulp**: Fluctuating, with a weakening bias [17] - **Logs**: Weakening with fluctuations [18] 2. Core Views of the Report - **Overall**: The report analyzes the market conditions of multiple agricultural products, including oils and fats, protein meal, corn, hogs, rubber, cotton, sugar, pulp, and logs. It assesses the supply - demand situation, price trends, and future outlooks for each product [2][5][7][8][9][10][13][14][17][18]. - **Short - term Outlook**: Most products are expected to show a trend of fluctuating, with some having a weakening or strengthening bias. For example, oils and fats are expected to weaken with fluctuations, while protein meal is expected to fluctuate [5][7]. - **Long - term Outlook**: Some products, such as hogs and sugar, are in a downward cycle or face supply - driven downward pressure in the long term [2][16]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Oils and Fats - **Industry Information**: In 2025, Canada's rapeseed planting area decreased by 2.5% year - on - year. The US soybean planting is completed, and its growth is good. CNPE will raise Brazil's biodiesel blending ratio from 14% to 15% on August 1. China's imported soybean arrivals are large, and domestic soybean oil inventory is rising. The expected increase in palm oil production in June is limited, and export expectations are optimistic. Domestic rapeseed oil inventory is slowly declining but remains high [5]. - **Logic**: Due to technical rebounds, last Friday, US soybeans fluctuated strongly, while US soybean oil fluctuated weakly. Yesterday, China's three major oils and fats fluctuated weakly. Considering the macro - environment and industrial factors, oils and fats are expected to continue to weaken with fluctuations [5]. - **Outlook**: Oils and fats may continue to weaken with fluctuations in the near term, but the effectiveness of the lower technical support needs attention [5]. 3.2 Protein Meal - **Industry Information**: On June 30, 2025, international soybean trade premiums and discounts showed different changes. China's imported soybean crushing profit increased week - on - week and year - on - year [6]. - **Logic**: Internationally, US soybeans are in a range - bound fluctuation. Domestically, soybean arrivals are increasing, oil mill inventories are rising, and downstream replenishment is insufficient, leading to supply pressure. In the long term, the consumption demand for soybean meal may increase steadily [7]. - **Outlook**: US soybeans are expected to maintain range - bound fluctuations. Domestic soybean meal inventories continue to accumulate. Oil mills can sell on rallies, and downstream enterprises can buy basis contracts or price at low prices after price drops [7]. 3.3 Corn and Starch - **Industry Information**: According to Mysteel, the FOB price at Jinzhou Port remained unchanged, and the domestic average corn price increased by 4 yuan/ton [8]. - **Logic**: Today, China's corn prices mainly rose. The remaining vehicles at North China's deep - processing enterprises decreased due to continuous rainy weather, and the purchase price increased. The demand for corn is being squeezed by wheat, and there are rumors of policy grain auctions [8][9]. - **Outlook**: Driven by the expected supply - demand gap, the price has an upward trend, but there may be corrections due to potential negative impacts from policy grain auctions [9]. 3.4 Hogs - **Industry Information**: On June 30, the spot price of hogs in Henan increased by 0.6% month - on - month, while the futures closing price decreased by 0.96% month - on - month [9]. - **Logic**: At the end of the month, the slaughter rhythm of farms slowed down, and the spot price rose, but the futures faced high - capacity and high - inventory pressure. In the short term, the average slaughter weight is decreasing, but the utilization rate of fattening pens is increasing. In the long term, the production capacity remains high, and the supply is expected to increase in the second half of the year [2][9]. - **Outlook**: The price is expected to fluctuate. Recently, the average slaughter weight is slowly decreasing, but farmers' fattening profit still attracts them to hold back hogs. Currently in the off - season of consumption, the price mainly fluctuates [2][9]. 3.5 Natural Rubber - **Industry Information**: On June 30, the prices of various rubber products in the Qingdao Free Trade Zone and the Thai raw material market showed different changes [9][10]. - **Logic**: The external environment has changed little, and rubber prices are fluctuating horizontally. The raw material price is relatively firm, providing strong support at the bottom. The supply is expected to increase, while the demand is expected to decrease [10][11]. - **Outlook**: Before the fundamentals provide clear guidance, rubber prices may continue to fluctuate with the overall commodity market [11]. 3.6 Synthetic Rubber - **Industry Information**: The spot prices of butadiene rubber and butadiene in different regions showed different changes [12]. - **Logic**: Recently, the macro - sentiment has been relatively positive, and the BR market has maintained range - bound fluctuations. The overall operating level has dropped to the lowest since May, and inventories have slightly increased [12]. - **Outlook**: The external situation may be temporarily controllable, and the market correction may not be over. Attention should be paid to the previous low support [12]. 3.7 Cotton - **Industry Information**: As of June 30, the number of registered cotton warrants in the 24/25 season was 10,273, and the closing price of Zhengzhou cotton 09 was 13,740 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton [13]. - **Logic**: In the 25/26 season, cotton production in China and other major producing countries is expected to increase. The downstream is in the off - season, and the demand is weak. The current commercial inventory is at a relatively low level, which provides support for the price [13]. - **Outlook**: In the short term, cotton prices are expected to fluctuate within the range of 13,500 - 14,300 yuan/ton [13]. 3.8 Sugar - **Industry Information**: As of June 30, the closing price of Zhengzhou sugar 09 was 5,807 yuan/ton, an increase of 15 yuan/ton [14]. - **Logic**: Domestically, the 24/25 sugar production season has ended, and the sales rate is high, but there is an expectation of concentrated arrivals of imported sugar. Internationally, the new sugar seasons in Brazil, India, and Thailand are expected to have increased production [14][16]. - **Outlook**: In the long term, due to the expected increase in supply, sugar prices are expected to weaken with fluctuations. In the short term, they are expected to rebound with fluctuations [16]. 3.9 Pulp - **Industry Information**: On the previous trading day, the prices of various pulp products in Shandong showed different changes [17]. - **Logic**: Pulp imports remain high, and prices are in a downward trend. Demand is in the off - season, and downstream paper enterprises' inventories are increasing. The US dollar price is continuously falling, and the pulp market is facing downward pressure [17]. - **Outlook**: Due to weak supply - demand and potential positive impacts from changes in delivery rules, pulp futures are expected to fluctuate [17]. 3.10 Logs - **Industry Information**: The spot prices of logs in Jiangsu and Shandong remained stable, and the futures price of LG2507 decreased [18]. - **Logic**: Yesterday was the last trading day before the first log contract LG2507 entered the delivery month, and the price fluctuated and declined. The total inventory decreased, and the market is in the off - season. In the short term, the fundamentals are in a weak balance [18]. - **Outlook**: In the medium term, the market will gradually return to being dominated by fundamentals, and the far - month prices are expected to be weak [18].

Group 1: Energy - International oil prices declined overnight, with Brent 08 contract down 1.07%. Saudi Arabia aims to increase production at a rate of 411,000 barrels per day in August and September, and lower the official price premium for light crude oil sold to Asia in July. The supply disruption caused by wildfires in Canada has partially recovered. Consider shorting opportunities after the peak - season expectations and geopolitical fluctuations are fully priced in [2]. - High - sulfur fuel oil demand is relatively low, and the expected increase in supply from OPEC+ may lead to a co - weakening of high - sulfur fuel oil cracking and EFS. Low - sulfur fuel oil follows the trend of crude oil due to weak supply and demand [20]. - The discount of diluted asphalt in June remains at a high level of - $6.5 per barrel. Supply increase lacks momentum, demand is seasonally improving, and the de - stocking trend is expected to continue. The BU cracking spread faces short - term回调 pressure, but the upward trend is not reversed [21]. - In June, the decline in CP is relatively small. Although the Middle - East supply is abundant, the recovery of domestic chemical demand and the rebound of crude oil have boosted the market sentiment. The supply pressure has weakened, and the market is stabilizing, maintaining a low - level shock [22]. - Urea agricultural demand is in the wheat - harvest break period, and the market trading sentiment is weak. Production enterprises are continuously accumulating inventory. Exports are gradually liberalized, but inspections are still restricted. The market weakens within the range [23]. Group 2: Precious Metals - Gold showed a strong - side oscillation overnight, while silver had limited fluctuations. The US economic data is weak, and the Fed's attitude is cautious. Gold prices should be bought on dips based on the strong support at $3000 [3]. Group 3: Base Metals - LME copper showed a solid form with inventory decreasing rapidly and logistics shifting to the US. Consider short - selling on rebounds or active position - swapping [4]. - Shanghai aluminum fluctuated narrowly. Demand is facing seasonal decline and trade frictions. There is resistance at the previous gap of 20,300 yuan. Participate in short - selling on rallies [4]. - The bauxite mine incident in Guinea has temporarily subsided. The alumina market is in an oversupply situation. Consider short - selling after the futures discount is gradually repaired [5]. - The zinc market's fundamentals are shifting from weak supply - demand to increasing supply and weakening demand. Continue the strategy of short - selling on rebounds [6]. - The actual consumption of lead is not optimistic. The cost - side support is strong, and the lower limit of Shanghai lead is temporarily seen at 16,300 yuan per ton [7]. - The nickel market is affected by trade conflicts. The supply of stainless steel is high, and the inventory situation is mixed. Short - sell on rebounds [8]. - The tin price continued to rise overnight. The low - grade tin production may be slower than expected. Hold previous high - level short positions and swap positions on rebounds [9]. Group 4: Steel and Iron Ore - Steel prices slightly declined at night. Rebar demand has short - term resilience but is under pressure in the off - season. Hot - rolled coil supply and demand have both increased, and inventory has decreased. Pay attention to terminal demand and policies [13]. - Iron ore prices oscillated strongly overnight. Supply is at a high level, and demand is in the off - season. The rebound space is expected to be limited [14]. - Coke prices rebounded significantly. The supply of carbon elements is abundant, and the price may continue to rise in the short term [15]. - Coking coal prices rebounded significantly. The current rebound is more likely a basis - repair rebound rather than a reversal signal [16]. Group 5: Chemicals - Methanol prices stopped rising and oscillated at night. The industry is accumulating inventory, and prices are under pressure. Pay attention to the inventory in Jiangsu [24]. - Styrene prices are under pressure due to inventory accumulation. Some enterprises plan to reduce production [25]. - Polypropylene and plastic prices are at a relatively low level, and short - term decline space is limited. The demand off - season continues [26]. - PVC prices may oscillate at a low level due to expected supply increase and export decline. Caustic soda prices are under pressure at a high level [27]. - PX and PTA prices are under pressure due to changes in supply - demand patterns. Pay attention to terminal orders and polyester production cuts [28]. - Ethylene glycol prices continue to decline. The market sentiment is weakening [29]. Group 6: Grains and Oils - Soybean meal futures oscillated flat, with weak upward drive. Supply is expected to be abundant. Short - term bearish, pay attention to weather changes from June to August [34]. - Soybean oil and palm oil are expected to oscillate within a range. The market is affected by policy expectations, supply pressure, and weather [35]. - Rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil prices are under short - term pressure. Pay attention to trade policies and overseas weather [36]. - Domestic soybeans oscillate at a low level. Pay attention to the auction results and weather [37]. - Corn prices are expected to oscillate weakly. Demand is weak, and new wheat may replace some corn demand [38]. Group 7: Livestock and Poultry - Hog futures oscillated weakly. Supply is expected to increase in the later stage, and short - term prices may continue to decline [39]. - Egg futures hit a new low. Supply is increasing, and demand is in the off - season. Prices may continue to decline [40]. Group 8: Textiles - Cotton prices: US cotton may benefit from rainfall, but the planting progress is behind. Domestic cotton has tight inventory expectations, and the market is in the off - season. Temporarily observe [41]. - Sugar prices: International sugar supply expectations are bearish, and domestic sugar has less inventory pressure. Sugar prices are expected to oscillate [42]. - Apple prices oscillate. Market demand has declined, and the focus is on the new - season output estimate [43]. Group 9: Others - Wood prices are weak. Supply has some positive factors, but demand is in the off - season. Temporarily observe [44]. - Pulp prices slightly declined. Inventory is at a relatively high level, demand is weak, and pay attention to import data. Consider buying on significant dips [45]. - Stock index futures rebounded. Due to geopolitical and trade policy uncertainties, the market may oscillate at a high level. Pay attention to domestic policy signals [46]. - Treasury bond futures closed up. Overseas budget expansion and domestic bond issuance acceleration may affect the market. The short - term long - side may maintain a narrow - range oscillation, and pay attention to curve - steepening opportunities [47].

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that the reconstruction of Ukraine is estimated to cost over $500 billion, as stated by Canada's Finance Minister [1] - The G7 finance ministers are discussing issues related to tariffs, capacity, non-market behavior, and financial crime during their meeting [1] - Canada reaffirms its commitment to continue providing financial support to Ukraine amidst the reconstruction efforts [1] Group 2 - Ukraine's Finance Minister Martynenko indicated that the G7 finance ministers will address all necessary and critical issues related to Ukraine's reconstruction [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The copper price is expected to maintain a high - level shock, aluminum price rebound sustainability remains to be seen, nickel is expected to show a weak shock, and tin price volatility is expected to increase [1][2][5][6] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Base Metals Copper - As of May 13, the main 06 contract of Shanghai copper rose 0.08% to 78,090 yuan/ton. The easing of global trade tensions makes the copper price return to the fundamental logic. The TC of copper concentrates continues to decline, and the subsequent output of smelters may decline. The consumption is stable but the high monthly spread restricts it. Technically, it runs between 74,500 - 80,000 yuan, and attention should be paid to the pressure at 78,500 yuan [1] Aluminum - As of May 13, the main 06 contract of Shanghai aluminum rose 1.27% to 20,005 yuan/ton. Bauxite supply increases and prices decline. Alumina production capacity decreases, and electrolytic aluminum production capacity increases. The downstream开工 rate has a weakening expectation. The aluminum price rebounds, but the sustainability needs to be observed [2] Nickel - As of May 13, the main 06 contract of Shanghai nickel fell 1.52% to 123,860 yuan/ton. The inflation cools down, and the domestic manufacturing PMI declines. The nickel ore price is firm, the refined nickel is in surplus, the nickel - iron has support but is also in surplus, and the stainless - steel is in the off - season. The cost of nickel sulfate rises, but the demand is weak. It is expected to run weakly [3][5] Tin - As of May 13, the main 06 contract of Shanghai tin rose 0.37% to 262,070 yuan/ton. The domestic refined tin output may decrease, and the import of tin concentrates decreases. The semiconductor industry is expected to recover. The tin ore supply is tight, and the mine has a strong resumption expectation. The price volatility is expected to increase, and the operation range is 250,000 - 275,000 yuan/ton [6] Spot Transaction Summary Copper - The domestic spot copper price falls. After the copper price rises, the downstream's willingness to receive goods decreases, and the actual transaction activity is limited [7] Aluminum - The spot aluminum price rises. The holders' willingness to sell is slow at first, but the high price stimulates some profit - taking. The downstream only makes purchases at low prices, and the overall transaction is dull [8] Alumina - The spot price of alumina rises slightly. The transaction in the spot market becomes dull, and the downstream electrolytic aluminum enterprises make rigid purchases [9] Zinc - The spot zinc price falls. The activity in the spot trading market decreases, and the downstream users adopt a price - pressing and quantity - limiting strategy [10] Lead - The spot lead price remains unchanged. The downstream maintains rigid purchases and sales [11] Nickel - The spot nickel price falls. The merchants make rigid purchases at low prices, and the inquiry enthusiasm increases [12] Tin - The spot tin price falls. The merchants make rigid purchases, and the overall transaction activity is stable [13] Warehouse Receipt and Inventory Report - For SHFE, copper, lead, and nickel futures warehouse receipts increase, while aluminum, zinc, and tin futures warehouse receipts decrease. For LME, copper, zinc, and aluminum inventories decrease, while lead, nickel inventories increase, and tin inventory remains unchanged [15]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information regarding the report industry investment rating is provided in the content. 2. Core View of the Report - The price of aluminum is expected to show a mainly oscillating and moderately upward trend [5][37]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - Last week, the price of the main contract AL2506 of Shanghai aluminum futures mainly showed an oscillating and weakening trend, ranging from around 19,310 yuan/ton to a maximum of about 20,050 yuan/ton [2][9]. - Last week, the price of LME aluminum futures showed an oscillating and weakening trend, with the contract price running around 2,377 - 2,460 US dollars/ton [12]. 3.2 Spot Analysis - As of May 9, 2025, the average price of 1 electrolytic aluminum in the Yangtze River non - ferrous metal market was 19,550 yuan/ton, a decrease of 90 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The spot prices in Shanghai, Foshan, Jinan, and Wuxi were 19,640 yuan/ton, 19,840 yuan/ton, 19,665 yuan/ton, and 19,635 yuan/ton respectively. As of the same date, the premium or discount of electrolytic aluminum remained around par, unchanged from the previous trading day [15]. 3.3 Supply and Demand Situation - In April 2025, the domestic in - production capacity of alumina was 87.4 million tons, with a total capacity of 110.82 million tons and an operating rate of 78.87%. The domestic operating rate was at a relatively low level compared to the past five years. As of April 2025, the in - production capacity of electrolytic aluminum was 44.099 million tons, with a total capacity of 45.182 million tons and an operating rate of 97.6%. From a seasonal perspective, the operating rate was at a relatively high level compared to the past five years [21]. 3.4 Inventory Situation - As of May 9, 2025, the electrolytic aluminum inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 169,665 tons, a decrease of 6,192 tons from the previous week. As of May 8, 2025, the LME aluminum inventory was 405,575 tons, a decrease of 2,000 tons from the previous trading day, and the proportion of cancelled warrants was 38.13%. - As of May 8, 2025, the total social inventory of electrolytic aluminum was 587,000 tons, a decrease of 11,000 tons from the previous day. The inventories in Shanghai, Wuxi, Hangzhou, Foshan, Tianjin, Shenyang, Gongyi, and Chongqing were 31,000 tons, 196,000 tons, 14,000 tons, 237,000 tons, 20,000 tons, 1,000 tons, 74,000 tons, and 7,000 tons respectively [27]. 3.5 Fundamental Analysis - The Federal Reserve admitted that the uncertainty of the economic outlook has further increased, and "the risks of rising unemployment and inflation have increased." In April, the one - year inflation expectation in the US remained stable at 3.6%, while the three - year inflation expectation rose from 3% to 4.2%, reaching the highest level since July 2022. The inflation expectation in the US has risen, and the pressure on the employment market has increased. - The total capacity of alumina continues to grow, while the in - production capacity has decreased. The capacity of electrolytic aluminum continues to climb, and the operating rate remains at a high level. The inventory of Shanghai aluminum continues to decline, and the inventory level is at a low level in recent years. The LME aluminum inventory has decreased slightly, and the proportion of cancelled warrants has decreased slightly [4][36].