黑色建材日报 | 2026-01-09 钢材供强需弱，累库趋势显现 玻璃纯碱：供应扰动影响，玻碱走势分化 市场分析 玻璃方面，昨日玻璃盘面震荡上涨，现货方面，部分厂家存在涨价行为，期现商逐步拿货入场，短期对于价格有 所支撑。据隆众数据显示：本周浮法玻璃日融15.16万吨，环比减少0.17%，厂家库存5551.8万重箱，环比减少2.37%。 供需与逻辑：目前玻璃供需矛盾依旧较大，虽然部分产线已经逐步冷修，但是相较刚需下降速度，减产力度仍显 不足。伴随期现商采购，库存压力有所缓解，市场对于春节后的旺季存在预期，持续关注玻璃冷修进展。 纯碱方面：昨日纯碱盘面震荡下跌，现货方面，下游刚需采购有限。据隆众数据显示：本周纯碱产量75.36万吨， 环比增加8.11%；库存157.27万吨，环比增加4.26%。 供需与逻辑：目前纯碱供需矛盾有所增加，供给环比回升，伴随需求转弱，库存明显增长。考虑到纯碱后期仍有 新增项目陆续释放产能，同时浮法玻璃存在冷修增加预期，仍需压制纯碱企业生产利润，避免再度陷入供需失衡 局面。短期在宏观情绪带动下，纯碱投机性需求提升，后期持续关注浮法玻璃产线变化和纯碱新投产项目进展。 策略 玻璃方面：震 ...

各位老铁大家好！今天小界来和大家聊聊近期人民币的形势！汇率突破7关口，不少出口从业者忧心忡 忡，接连追问：人民币为何突然升值？资本管制下为何仍能大幅升值？对中国经济是喜是忧？普通人又 该如何把握相关投资机会？ 产能才是货币的终极锚点 很多人疑惑，几个月前人民币兑美元还在7.4左右，如今已跌至6.99，市场甚至出现"未来可能到1:3"的 极端预测。这波升值到底靠什么支撑？答案其实藏在货币的本质里。 反观其他主流货币，过去5年、10年乃至20年几乎都在相对人民币贬值，核心就是与中国的产能差距越 拉越大。 就像日元从100跌至160，根源就是日本经济乏力、产能竞争力下滑。而中国2008-2015年人民币从8.27 升至6的行情，正是经济实力与产能飞速提升的直接体现。 如今1.2万亿美元的贸易盈余，更印证了中国经济的韧性，疫情后"东升西落"的趋势已无需争议，这也 为人民币升值筑牢了根基。 懂点货币理论的都知道，货币的升贬核心取决于国家经济前景，而货币的坚挺程度，最终看的是国家实 力与产能覆盖范围。 很多人误以为货币的价值靠黄金、靠信用背书，但本质上，信用的底层还是产能，货币最终要能兑换成 实实在在的商品和服务，没有产 ...

Core Viewpoint - The domestic futures market for soda ash is experiencing a slight increase, with the main contract rising by 1.28% to 1183.00 CNY/ton, despite a generally weak demand environment and high inventory levels [1][2]. Supply Side - Soda ash enterprises are making minor adjustments to their operations, with little change in production levels and few upcoming maintenance plans. New production capacity is expected to come online, maintaining overall output at relatively high levels [2]. - Manufacturers are primarily focused on fulfilling previous orders, with new orders being limited. Although short-term inventory levels are decreasing, the absolute inventory remains high [2]. Demand Side - The demand for soda ash is weak, particularly in the float glass industry, which is facing a dual weakness in supply and demand. The recovery in demand is hindered by a lack of improvement in the real estate market, which is the main downstream sector for float glass [2]. - Additionally, the anticipated demand from the photovoltaic sector for dense soda ash has not materialized, further limiting overall demand growth [2]. Inventory Levels - As of December 1, 2025, the total inventory of soda ash manufacturers in China is 1.5699 million tons, a decrease of 17,500 tons (1.10%) from the previous week. This includes 734,500 tons of light soda ash (down 6,100 tons) and 835,400 tons of dense soda ash (down 11,400 tons) [2]. Market Outlook - The futures market shows clear bottom characteristics, but there is a lack of new driving forces. The market is expected to experience strong oscillation around the bottom, with future trends requiring more catalysts to materialize. Key factors to monitor include soda ash production levels, product release schedules from Alashan, downstream purchasing rhythms, and trends in the macroeconomic and commodity markets [2].

Core Insights - The company has confirmed that the first phase of the Qionglai full industry chain base project has a designed production capacity of 20,000 tons of raw liquor brewing [1] - The company's greenhouse gas emissions in 2023 increased compared to 2022 due to the inclusion of energy consumption from both the Tujiao factory and the newly constructed Qionglai factory during its phased production and testing [1]

Industry Capacity Adjustment - China's domestic polysilicon effective capacity is projected to decrease to approximately 240 million tons per year, a 164% decrease compared to the end of 2024 [1] - The polysilicon supply and demand pattern is expected to improve substantially with the strict implementation of new energy consumption standards [1] Regulatory Environment - The draft standard released this week is currently open for public comment and is expected to be implemented within 12 months [1]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Acrylonitrile: ★★★ [1] - Pure Benzene: ★★★ [1] - PX: ★★★ [1] - Ethylene Glycol: ★★★ [1] - Bottle Chip: ★★★ [1] - Methanol: ★★★ [1] - Caustic Soda: ★★★ [1] - Soda Ash: ★★★ [1] - Polyolefin: ☆☆☆ [1] - Styrene: ☆☆☆ [1] - PTA: ★★★ [1] - Short Fiber: ☆☆☆ [1] - Urea: ☆☆☆ [1] - PVC: ★★★ [1] - Glass: ☆☆☆ [1] Core Viewpoints - The supply of olefins - polyolefins is polarized, with tight supply of propylene and stable supply of polyolefins. Market performance varies due to different demand situations [2] - The price of pure benzene is weakly operating, but there may be improvements in the third - quarter supply - demand situation. The price of styrene has certain support [3] - In the polyester industry, PX and PTA prices are related, and the demand for polyester products shows a positive trend, but there are also issues such as high inventory [5] - The methanol market may stabilize after a weak period, while the urea market is expected to remain weak [6] - The PVC market is under supply pressure and may decline, and the caustic soda market will likely fluctuate widely [7] - The soda ash market may be short - sold at high prices, and the glass market is expected to fluctuate widely [8] Summary by Related Catalogs Olefins - Polyolefins - Propylene futures fluctuate narrowly around the 5 - day moving average, with tight supply and strong downstream demand. Polyolefin futures are in a low - level range, with stable supply but slow demand growth [2] Pure Benzene - The price of pure benzene fluctuates above 6000 yuan/ton, with increasing supply and demand, and a weak price due to factors such as poor downstream profitability. The price of styrene has certain support due to device maintenance [3] Polyester - PX price rebounds, PTA follows up slightly, and the demand for polyester products is improving, but there are issues such as high inventory. Ethylene glycol has a strong basis, and short - fiber can be considered for long - position allocation [5] Coal Chemical Industry - The methanol market may stabilize after a weak period, with port inventory accumulation and expected demand improvement. The urea market is expected to remain weak due to factors such as high inventory and weak demand [6] Chlor - alkali Industry - PVC has supply pressure and may decline due to new device production. Caustic soda has a differentiated performance in different regions and is expected to fluctuate widely [7] Soda Ash - Glass - Soda ash supply is slightly reduced, and the market may be short - sold at high prices. Glass production capacity is increasing slightly, and the price may fluctuate widely [8]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Copper: ★☆☆ [1] - Aluminum: ★☆★ [1] - Alumina: ★☆☆ [1] - Cast Aluminum Alloy: Not clearly rated [1] - Zinc: ☆☆☆ [1] - Nickel and Stainless Steel: ★☆☆ (implied from context) [1] - Tin: ★★★ (implied from context) [1] - Lithium Carbonate: ★☆☆ [1] - Industrial Silicon: ☆☆☆ [1] - Polysilicon: ☆☆☆ [1] Core Views - The prices of various non - ferrous metals are affected by different factors such as supply - demand relationships, macroeconomic data, and policy expectations. Each metal has its own short - term and medium - term trends and investment suggestions [2][3][4] Summary by Metal Copper - Friday saw Shanghai copper oscillating with a positive line, supported by medium - term moving averages. The spot copper price dropped to 79,180 yuan. The market is concerned about US retail sales and industrial output data. It is believed that there is significant resistance above the copper price, and short positions at high levels should be held [2] Aluminum & Alumina & Aluminum Alloy - Shanghai aluminum rebounded slightly today, with the East China spot at par. The social inventory of aluminum ingots increased slightly by 0.1 million tons, while that of aluminum rods decreased by 0.9 million tons. The start - up of downstream leading enterprises stabilized. The peak of off - season inventory accumulation for aluminum ingots may occur in August, and the inventory is likely to remain low this year. Shanghai aluminum will mainly oscillate in the short term, with resistance at 21,000 yuan. Cast aluminum alloy fluctuates with Shanghai aluminum. The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and the profit of the aluminum alloy industry is poor but has certain resilience. The spot - AL cross - variety spread may gradually narrow. The operating capacity of alumina is at a historical high, and both industry inventory and SHFE warehouse receipts are rising. As supply surplus becomes more apparent, the spot index in various regions is falling, and there is adjustment pressure on the alumina futures [3] Zinc - LME zinc inventory continued to decline to 77,500 tons, with the 0 - 3 month spread close to par. The low inventory in the outer market supports the price. Short - position funds are continuously reducing their positions, and LME zinc is expected to oscillate strongly. The import window remains closed, and the outer market is pulling up the inner market. The domestic Shanghai zinc has fully priced in the weak reality and weak expectations, and the term structure has flattened. There is a lack of resonance between macro sentiment and fundamentals, and short - term directional signals are insufficient. The supply of mines at home and abroad continues to increase, and there is still room to short mine profits on the futures. The idea of short - allocating on rebounds in the medium term remains unchanged, waiting for short - selling opportunities above 23,500 yuan/ton [4] Aluminum (Second entry) - LME aluminum inventory is at a high level, and the outer market is dominated by surplus, oscillating weakly. The import window remains closed. As the delivery approaches, the SMM social inventory of aluminum has increased to 71,700 tons. Recently, the futures - spot spread has narrowed, and the profit from delivering to the warehouse is insufficient. The subsequent domestic lead ingot inventory may become invisible, and the growth space of the visible social inventory in the future is expected to be limited. The aluminum price is oscillating at a low level, and there is reluctance to sell recycled aluminum. The SMM precision price is inverted by 25 yuan/ton. There is limited downward space for lead. Downstream purchasing on dips has improved, but the terminal consumption has not recovered. There is potential demand in the data center UPS power and energy storage sectors. It is advisable to hold long positions near 16,600 yuan/ton. At the same time, there are still 10 days until the expiration of near - month options, and opportunities in the last - trading - day options can be considered [6] Nickel and Stainless Steel - Shanghai nickel rebounded, and the market trading was active. The domestic anti - dumping theme is coming to an end, and nickel with relatively poor fundamentals will return to its fundamentals. The premium for Jinchuan nickel is 2350 yuan, the premium for imported nickel is 350 yuan, and the premium for electrowon nickel is 50 yuan. The price of high - nickel ferro - nickel is 921 yuan per nickel point, and the upstream price support has weakened recently. In terms of inventory, the ferro - nickel inventory remains basically unchanged at 33,000 tons, the pure nickel inventory has decreased by 1000 tons to 39,000 tons, and the stainless steel inventory has decreased by 1000 tons to 966,000 tons, but the overall inventory level is still high. Pay attention to signs of the end of de - stocking. Shanghai nickel is in a rebound and should be regarded as oscillating [7] Tin - Shanghai tin recovered part of its decline and closed above the MA40 daily average line. A small amount of LME tin inventory flowed in this week, and its persistence should be tracked. In the domestic market, pay attention to the maintenance and production plans of large factories. It is believed that there is room to reduce the high social inventory in the domestic market. Today, the spot tin is reported at 266,000 yuan, and there is still a real - time premium of 700 yuan on the last trading day. Short - term long positions at low levels should be held based on the MA60 daily average line [8] Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate strengthened at the end of the session, and the market trading was active. The delivery problem in September restricts the upward space. The spot price is reported at 83,000 yuan. Downstream inquiry activities are active, and the spot market transaction has improved. The total market inventory has slightly declined to 142,000 tons, the smelter inventory has decreased by 3000 tons to 52,000 tons, the downstream inventory has increased by 3000 tons to 46,000 tons, and the trader inventory has decreased by 1000 tons to 44,000 tons. The transfer of cargo rights is obvious, and downstream enterprises are increasing their replenishment efforts as the price回调. The latest quotation of Australian ore is nearly 1000 US dollars. The futures price fluctuates greatly, and risk management should be noted [9] Industrial Silicon - The industrial silicon futures closed slightly higher, turning positive at the end of the session due to the sentiment transmission from polysilicon. On the spot side, the price of Xinjiang 421 silicon remained stable at 9050 yuan/ton (SMM), down 100 yuan/ton. Under the background of increased production by large factories in Xinjiang and in Sichuan and Yunnan, there is still pressure from high - level hedging on the futures. However, SMM expects the polysilicon production schedule to exceed 130,000 tons, with a clear marginal increase in demand. Coupled with the expectation of photovoltaic policies, the support below the futures is strong, and it will mainly oscillate in the short term [10] Polysilicon - The polysilicon futures increased significantly in position and rose. The expectation of a photovoltaic conference next week is rising, and the sentiment of policy benefits is fermenting again. At the same time, some terminals have begun to accept the component price of 0.68 yuan/W. However, it should be noted that under the expectation of a structural decline in terminal demand in September, the component price and price will still be under pressure. In the polysilicon segment, the production in August is expected to increase significantly to 130,000 tons, and the high - inventory pattern still restricts the upward space of its price. In operation, short - term news related to the photovoltaic conference has a significant impact on sentiment. The current futures is close to the previous high. Long positions can consider partial profit - taking, and at the same time, pay attention to position control and the performance at the resistance level of 53,000 yuan/ton [11]

Capacity & Supply Chain - SMIC's capacity remains insufficient, and the tight capacity situation is expected to continue until October [1] - The impact of tariffs may lessen due to better arrangements made over several months [1] - Concerns about a hard landing of tariff policies have not materialized, at least not currently [1]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views - The crude oil market is affected by factors such as the weakening of the near - month spread, stubborn CPI in the US, and potential sanctions on Russia, with short - term volatility and a mid - term bearish outlook [1][2]. - The asphalt market has a neutral - to - high valuation, with short - term supply - demand weakness and expected high - level fluctuations in unilateral prices and a strengthening trend in crack spreads [3][5]. - The liquefied gas market has sufficient supply and weak demand, and the price is expected to run weakly [5][8]. - The natural gas market in the US is expected to see higher prices due to strong demand and increased LNG exports, while the European market is expected to be volatile due to stable supply and weak demand [8][9]. - The fuel oil market has different situations for high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oils, with a wait - and - see attitude for trading [10][12]. - The PX, PTA, ethylene glycol, short - fiber, PR, and other polyester - related markets are expected to fluctuate and be sorted out, with a wait - and - see attitude for trading [13][15][16]. - The styrene market is expected to show an oscillating trend due to factors such as supply and demand changes and inventory accumulation [23][25]. - The PVC market has a weak supply - demand situation, with a bearish view on prices in the medium and short term, while the caustic soda market has a reduced upward drive, and short - term long positions are recommended to take profits on rallies [26][28]. - The PP and PE markets have a large capacity release pressure in the third quarter, with a bearish view on prices in the medium and short term [29][31]. - The soda ash market is expected to show a relatively strong performance in price, with a wait - and - see attitude for trading [32][35]. - The glass market is affected by the adjustment of real - estate expectations, and attention should be paid to possible logical conversions [35][37]. - The methanol market is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term, with a wait - and - see attitude for trading and selling call options [37][40]. - The urea market is expected to be strong in the short term but weak in the short - term operation due to factors such as supply, demand, and export policies [40][42]. - The log market has a wait - and - see attitude for trading, and attention should be paid to the 9 - 11 reverse spread [43][46]. - The corrugated paper market is in a weak pattern, with a wait - and - see attitude for trading [46]. - The double - offset paper market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, with paper mills having a strong willingness to support prices [48][50]. - The pulp market has a wait - and - see attitude for trading, and attention should be paid to the pressure at the high point on Tuesday [51][53]. - The butadiene rubber market has a wait - and - see attitude for trading, and attention should be paid to the pressure at the high point last Thursday [54][56]. - The natural rubber and 20 - number rubber markets have a wait - and - see attitude for trading, and attention should be paid to the pressure at the high points, and the RU2509 - NR2509 spread can be considered for intervention [57][59]. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Review**: WTI2508 contract settled at $66.52, down $0.46/barrel, a month - on - month decrease of - 0.69%; Brent2509 contract settled at $68.71, down $0.50/barrel, a month - on - month decrease of - 0.72%. SC main contract 2509 fell 2.6 to 509.3 yuan/barrel, and at night it fell 3.7 to 505.6 yuan/barrel. The Brent main - to - next - month spread was $0.94/barrel [1]. - **Related News**: US June CPI rebounded to 2.7% year - on - year, core CPI rose 2.9% year - on - year. There are potential sanctions on Russia, and the US commercial crude oil inventory increased by 19.1 million barrels in the week ending July 11, 2025 [1][2]. - **Logical Analysis**: The near - month spread of crude oil weakened, the short - term supply - demand contradiction was slightly weakened. The US CPI in June was still stubborn, the expectation of interest rate cuts was weakened, and the uncertainty of the macro - economic outlook increased. Potential sanctions on Russia may increase market disturbances [2]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short - term volatility is weak, and pay attention to the support around $68.2 for Brent. Gasoline and diesel crack spreads are stable, and options are on hold [2][3]. Asphalt - **Market Review**: BU2509 closed at 3612 points at night (- 0.14%), BU2512 closed at 3433 points at night (- 0.17%). The spot price in Shandong on July 15 was 3550 - 4070 yuan/ton, and in the East China region it was 3670 - 3800 yuan/ton [3]. - **Related News**: The mainstream transaction prices in different regions were stable, with some price adjustments due to factors such as supply and demand and weather [3][4]. - **Logical Analysis**: Oil prices fell from a high level, the asphalt crack spread increased passively, the industrial chain profit was repaired, and the valuation was neutral - to - high. The supply and demand were weak in the short term, and both were expected to increase before the peak season at the end of the third quarter [5]. - **Trading Strategy**: High - level fluctuations, the asphalt - crude oil spread is strong, and options are on hold [5]. Liquefied Gas - **Market Review**: PG2508 closed at 4106 at night (- 1.3%), PG2509 closed at 4016 at night (- 1.06%). The spot prices in different regions varied [5]. - **Related News**: The market trends in different regions were different, with fluctuations and adjustments [5][6]. - **Logical Analysis**: The supply decreased last week, the international ship arrivals increased, the demand in the combustion and chemical fields was weak, and the inventories at ports and factories increased [8]. - **Trading Strategy**: The price is expected to run weakly [8]. Natural Gas - **Market Review**: TTF closed at 34.445 (- 2.85%), HH closed at 3.521 (+ 1.64%), JKM closed at 12.3 (- 2.88%) [8]. - **Logical Analysis**: In the US, the natural gas inventory increased last week, the production increased, the demand was strong, and the LNG export volume increased, so the price was expected to rise. In Europe, the supply was stable, the demand was weak, and the price fell [8][9]. - **Trading Strategy**: For HH, buy on dips; for TTF, it is expected to oscillate [9]. Fuel Oil - **Market Review**: FU09 contract closed at 22873 at night (+ 0.21%), LU09 closed at 3642 at night (- 0.14%). The Singapore paper - cargo market had different month - spreads [10]. - **Related News**: Malaysia will implement regulations on illegal ship - to - ship crude oil transfers, and the sales volume of marine fuel oil in Singapore in the first half of 2025 decreased slightly [11]. - **Logical Analysis**: The high arrival of domestic high - sulfur spot hit the domestic high - sulfur price. The high - sulfur feed demand was expected to increase, and the low - sulfur supply increased with no specific demand driver [12][13]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait and see for unilateral trading, and pay attention to the digestion rhythm of near - term high - sulfur spot for arbitrage [13]. PX - **Market Review**: The PX2509 main contract closed at 6688 (- 90/- 1.33%) yesterday and 6712 (+ 24/+ 0.36%) at night. The spot price of PX decreased [13]. - **Related News**: The sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were weak [14]. - **Logical Analysis**: The supply of PX was still tight, the downstream demand was lack of support in the off - season, and it was expected to oscillate following the cost side [14]. - **Trading Strategy**: Oscillate and sort out, wait and see for arbitrage and options [14]. PTA - **Market Review**: The TA509 main contract closed at 4696 (- 44/- 0.93%) yesterday and 4702 (+ 6/+ 0.13%) at night. The spot basis was stable [15]. - **Related News**: The sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were weak [15]. - **Logical Analysis**: The supply of PTA was expected to increase, the downstream demand was weak, and the processing fee was compressed [15]. - **Trading Strategy**: Oscillate and sort out, wait and see for arbitrage and options [16]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Review**: The EG2509 futures main contract closed at 4322 (- 35/- 0.80%) yesterday and 4301 (- 21/- 0.49%) at night. The spot basis was stable [16]. - **Related News**: The sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were weak [17]. - **Logical Analysis**: The supply of ethylene glycol was expected to increase, and there was an expectation of inventory accumulation in August - September, which would put pressure on the price [17]. - **Trading Strategy**: Oscillate and sort out, wait and see for arbitrage and options [18]. Short - Fiber - **Market Review**: The PF2508 main contract closed at 6368 (- 68/- 1.06%) during the day and 6358 (- 10/- 0.16%) at night. The spot price in different regions was stable [18]. - **Related News**: The sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were weak [18]. - **Logical Analysis**: The short - fiber price followed the decline of polyester raw materials, the processing difference continued to expand, and the production and sales were average [18][19]. - **Trading Strategy**: No specific strategy provided, wait and see attitude implied [19]. PR (Bottle Chips) - **Market Review**: The PR2509 main contract closed at 5870 (- 50/- 0.84%) yesterday and 5874 (+ 4/+ 0.07%) at night. The spot market trading atmosphere was average [19]. - **Related News**: The export quotation of polyester bottle - chip factories was slightly reduced [19]. - **Logical Analysis**: The raw material futures fell, the bottle - chip processing fee strengthened, and the production was reduced. It was expected to oscillate and sort out following the raw material end [19]. - **Trading Strategy**: Oscillate and sort out, wait and see for arbitrage and options [21]. Styrene - **Market Review**: The BZ2503 main contract closed at 6144 (- 45/- 0.73%) during the day and 6164 (+ 20/+ 0.33%) at night. The EB2508 main contract closed at 7340 (- 138/- 1.85%) during the day and 7332 (- 8/- 0.11%) at night. The spot price of pure benzene and styrene changed [23]. - **Related News**: The styrene inventory in the East China main port increased, and some styrene devices were shut down for maintenance [23][24]. - **Logical Analysis**: The pure benzene price was expected to oscillate and sort out, and the styrene price was expected to show an oscillating trend due to supply and demand changes and inventory accumulation [24][25]. - **Trading Strategy**: Oscillate and sort out, wait and see for arbitrage and options [25][26]. PVC and Caustic Soda - **Market Review**: The PVC spot market was slightly weak, and the caustic soda spot price in different regions was stable or slightly increased [26][27]. - **Related News**: The price of liquid chlorine in Shandong decreased [27]. - **Logical Analysis**: The PVC supply and demand were weak, the inventory increased, and there was a risk of new device production. The caustic soda price had a peak - season expectation, but the upward drive was reduced [27][28]. - **Trading Strategy**: For caustic soda, take profits on rallies for short - term long positions; for PVC, be bearish on the price in the medium and short term. Wait and see for arbitrage and options [29]. PP and PE - **Market Review**: The LLDPE market price was slightly weak, and the PP spot price in different regions decreased [29]. - **Related News**: The PP and PE maintenance ratios increased [29]. - **Logical Analysis**: There was a large capacity release pressure in the third quarter, the terminal demand was weak, and the price was bearish in the medium and short term [31]. - **Trading Strategy**: Be bearish on the price in the medium and short term, wait and see for arbitrage and options [32]. Soda Ash - **Market Review**: The soda ash futures main 09 contract closed at 1214 yuan/ton (- 27/- 2.2%), and at night it closed at 1211 yuan (- 15/- 1.22%). The spot price in different regions changed [32]. - **Related News**: The domestic soda ash factory inventory increased, and some devices had maintenance or production plans [33]. - **Logical Analysis**: The soda ash supply decreased, the demand was weak, the inventory increased, and the profit decreased. The market expected the real - estate sector to adjust [33][34]. - **Trading Strategy**: The price is expected to be relatively strong, wait and see for arbitrage and options [35]. Glass - **Market Review**: The glass futures main 09 contract closed at 1071 yuan/ton (- 31/- 2.81%), and at night it closed at 1069 yuan/ton (- 13/- 1.2%). The spot price in different regions was stable or slightly increased [35]. - **Related News**: The glass market price was stable with some increases, and the deep - processing order days decreased [35][37]. - **Logical Analysis**: The glass price was affected by the adjustment of real - estate expectations, the supply decreased last week, and attention should be paid to production and sales in the short term and cost and cold - repair in the medium term [37]. - **Trading Strategy**: Pay attention to possible logical conversions, wait and see for arbitrage and options [37]. Methanol - **Market Review**: The methanol futures closed at 2374 at night (- 18/- 0.75%). The spot price in different regions varied [37][38]. - **Related News**: The weekly signing volume of methanol production enterprises in the Northwest increased [39]. - **Logical Analysis**: The international methanol device start - up rate increased, the import recovered, the domestic supply was loose, and the price was expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [39][40]. - **Trading Strategy**: Oscillate weakly, wait and see for arbitrage, and sell call options [40]. Urea - **Market Review**: The urea futures fell to 1731 (- 33/- 1.87%). The spot price decreased slightly [40][41]. - **Related News**: The urea daily production increased, and the new Indian tender price was announced [41]. - **Logical Analysis**: The urea supply was large, the demand was weak, the inventory was high, and the price was expected to be strong in the short term but weak in the short - term operation [41][42]. - **Trading Strategy**: Oscillate weakly in the short term, wait and see for arbitrage, and sell call options on rallies [42][43]. Log - **Market Review**: The log spot market was stable with some price decreases. The 9 - month contract price rose slightly [43][44]. - **Related News**: The import volume of logs and sawn timber in June decreased, and the real - estate development data was not good [43]. - **Logical Analysis**: The downstream demand was weak, and the price support and trading volume needed to be considered. The scale difference supported the disk price [44][46]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait and see for the near - month contract, pay attention to the 9 - 11 reverse spread, and wait and see for options [46]. Corrugated Paper - **Market Review**: The corrugated and box - board paper market was stable with some individual adjustments [46]. - **Related News**: The price of waste yellow - board paper increased, and the market trading atmosphere was average [46]. - **Logical Analysis**: The corrugated paper market was in a weak pattern, with sufficient supply and weak demand [46

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - The demand side of polysilicon still faces significant pressure. Although the polysilicon price increased last week, giving most manufacturers a chance to turn losses into profits, this is not the norm. Most manufacturers will start a new round of hedging, and the polysilicon inventory is at a high level. The short - term speculative market is expected to end, and it is advisable to buy put options appropriately [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main polysilicon contract is 42,470 yuan/ton, up 705 yuan; the position of the main contract is 69,821 lots, down 8,507 lots; the price difference between August and September polysilicon is 350 yuan, up 20 yuan; the price difference between polysilicon and industrial silicon is 33,685 yuan/ton, up 615 yuan [2] Spot Market - The spot price of polysilicon is 45,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the basis of polysilicon is 3,030 yuan/ton, down 705 yuan; the weekly average price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon is 4.94 US dollars/kg, up 0.72 US dollars; the average prices of cauliflower - type, dense - type, and re - feed type polysilicon are 30 yuan/kg, 36 yuan/kg, and 33 yuan/kg respectively, all unchanged [2] Upstream Situation - The closing price of the main industrial silicon contract is 8,785 yuan/ton, up 90 yuan; the spot price of industrial silicon is 9,150 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan; the monthly output of industrial silicon is 305,200 tons, up 5,500 tons; the monthly export volume of industrial silicon is 52,919.65 tons, down 12,197.89 tons; the monthly import volume of industrial silicon is 2,211.36 tons, up 71.51 tons; the total social inventory of industrial silicon is 552,000 tons, up 10,000 tons [2] Industry Situation - The monthly output of polysilicon is 95,000 tons, down 1,000 tons; the monthly import volume of polysilicon is 793 tons, down 161 tons; the weekly spot price of imported polysilicon in China is 5.04 US dollars/kg, up 0.14 US dollars; the monthly average import price of polysilicon in China is 2.19 US dollars/ton, down 0.14 US dollars [2] Downstream Situation - The monthly output of solar cells is 70,569,000 kilowatts, down 1,359,000 kilowatts; the average price of solar cells is 0.82 RMB/W, up 0.01 RMB/W; the monthly export volume of photovoltaic modules is 103,399,980 pieces, up 19,610,660 pieces; the monthly import volume of photovoltaic modules is 12,098,490 pieces, down 8,021,950 pieces; the monthly average import price of photovoltaic modules is 0.33 US dollars/piece, up 0.04 US dollars/piece; the weekly comprehensive price index of the photovoltaic industry (SPI) for polysilicon is 22.29, up 0.62 [2] Industry News - Trump said that if Russia fails to reach an agreement on the Russia - Ukraine conflict within 50 days, the US will impose a 100% secondary tariff on Russia and also impose secondary sanctions on countries that buy Russian oil. The Brazilian vice - president denied the news that Brazil asked the US to reduce tariffs to 30% and postpone the tariff deadline by 90 days, and Brazil will announce a reciprocal counter - measure decree on US tariffs. The EU is preparing to impose counter - tariffs on 72 billion US dollars of US goods. The Thai Ministry of Finance is considering zero - tariff on more US imports. The US Department of Commerce has launched a 232 investigation into the import of drones and polysilicon [2] Macro - aspect - Currently, the CPI has turned positive, and the PPI continues to weaken. The market's expectations for the end - of - month meeting have increased. On the supply side of polysilicon, the overall output of polysilicon enterprises has increased, with some enterprises increasing production while others are under maintenance, and the self - disciplined production reduction measures have not significantly expanded the capacity fluctuation [2]