Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that despite the reduction of tariffs, the damage to the U.S. retail industry has already occurred, and both retailers and consumers will continue to face challenges in regaining confidence [1] - The U.S. government has canceled 91% of the tariffs imposed on Chinese goods, while China has reciprocated with a similar reduction, indicating significant progress in U.S.-China trade talks [1] - Even with tariff reductions, U.S. consumers will still experience price inflation on non-food imported goods, and tariffs on other manufacturing countries like Vietnam remain in place, suggesting that the trade war's escalation may have been avoided, but consumer impacts persist [1] Group 2 - The agreement is expected to encourage retailers to restart paused orders, with signs of trade recovery already emerging, which may reduce stock shortages during the holiday season [2] - Supply chain disruptions will take time to resolve, as evidenced by the example of toys that should have been produced earlier but may not arrive in time for the holiday season, leading to potential inventory issues for retailers [2] - Past experiences, such as the delays in receiving seasonal clothing, highlight the risk of retailers receiving unwanted inventory, which could force them to discount products and test their pricing strategies [2] Group 3 - Consumers have been purchasing goods in anticipation of price increases, particularly in categories like automobiles, but this behavior may lead to reduced spending in other areas due to budget constraints [3] - Economic uncertainty is causing consumers to cut back on spending, with even affluent consumers feeling the pressure from inflation and rising interest rates, impacting their purchasing decisions [3] - The demand for luxury goods has weakened, as indicated by a decline in same-store sales for companies like Sweetgreen Inc., suggesting that consumer confidence is fragile and recovery may take time [3]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent shift in U.S. retail giants like Walmart, which have resumed orders from Chinese suppliers while agreeing to bear the additional tariff costs, indicating a change in strategy amidst ongoing trade tensions between the U.S. and China [1][5]. Group 1: Retail Industry Dynamics - Walmart and other U.S. retailers have resumed orders from Chinese suppliers after a brief pause, with the commitment to absorb new tariff costs, which were previously expected to be passed on to Chinese suppliers [1][3]. - The shift in U.S. retail strategy follows a meeting between retail representatives and President Trump, contrasting with their earlier attempts to transfer tariff burdens to Chinese suppliers [1][4]. - U.S. retail inventory levels are nearing critical thresholds, prompting retailers to act to avoid stock shortages and price increases that have led to consumer panic buying [3][4]. Group 2: Economic and Political Context - Retailers are anticipating a potential easing of tariff policies, driven by the upcoming midterm elections and the political pressure of rising inflation on the White House [4][8]. - The U.S. Treasury Secretary has revealed that there is no current negotiation on tariffs between the U.S. and China, contradicting claims of ongoing discussions [7][8]. - The actions of U.S. retailers reflect a recognition of the limitations of unilateral trade policies, as they seek to stabilize supply chains and consumer prices amidst political uncertainty [10]. Group 3: Market Implications - The resumption of orders from Walmart signifies a vote of confidence in the Chinese supply chain, suggesting that even major retailers are aware of the unsustainable nature of prolonged trade tensions [10]. - The article highlights the importance of market forces over political rhetoric, indicating that the need for Chinese goods will challenge any political barriers imposed by tariffs [10].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint highlights the tension between social media scrutiny and the operational realities of businesses, particularly in the context of the jade products from the company "胖东来" which faced allegations of high profit margins and product quality [2] - Regulatory bodies conducted inspections and concluded that "胖东来" has an average profit margin not exceeding 20% and that their certification is valid, which has led to public support for the company [2] - The article discusses the negative impact of unfounded criticisms from internet influencers, which can distract regulatory resources and create unnecessary burdens for legitimate businesses [2] Group 2 - The term "网红企业" (internet celebrity enterprises) is used to describe companies that, due to their success, become targets for negative online narratives, which can be an unfair burden on them [3] - There is a call for creating a better public opinion environment for these successful companies to allow them to focus on development without the distraction of negative information [3] - The article warns against excessive praise ("捧杀") of companies, suggesting that while they should be recognized for their achievements, it is also important to maintain a balanced perspective on their shortcomings [3]

Core Viewpoint - The offshore RMB exchange rate experienced a significant increase during the "May Day" holiday, with the USD/CNH rate dropping from 7.27 to around 7.21, indicating a daily increase of over 600 basis points [1][2]. Group 1: Factors Influencing RMB Appreciation - Reports of major U.S. retailers like Walmart resuming shipments from Chinese suppliers have improved expectations for China's foreign trade environment, leading to increased confidence among overseas investment funds regarding the RMB's valuation [1][3]. - The "buying on expectations" behavior in the forex market is gaining traction, as Wall Street institutions anticipate multiple interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year, prompting them to hedge against USD depreciation by buying RMB and other non-USD currencies [1][7]. - The lower trading activity in the offshore RMB market during the holiday period allowed for significant short-covering by overseas institutions, which amplified the RMB's appreciation [1][4]. Group 2: Changes in Market Sentiment - Overseas hedge funds have reduced their short positions in offshore RMB, reflecting a shift in sentiment towards a more optimistic outlook on China's foreign trade environment [3][4]. - The reduction in short positions is evident as many hedge funds no longer engage in borrowing RMB for short-selling, and the number of funds willing to buy RMB derivatives at higher execution prices has decreased significantly [4]. - The overall sentiment indicates that most overseas investment institutions do not foresee the RMB falling below the 7.4 level in the short term, with many funds having cut their short positions by at least half since mid-April [4][5]. Group 3: Anticipated Market Movements - The RMB exchange rate is expected to fluctuate between 7.2 and 7.3 in the near term, influenced by the correlation with the USD index, which has been hovering between 98 and 101 [2]. - As optimism grows regarding U.S.-China trade negotiations, the trend of short-covering in offshore RMB is likely to continue, potentially allowing the RMB to recover the 7.2 level [5]. - Market participants are preparing for potential Federal Reserve rate cuts, with expectations of 3 to 4 cuts this year, leading to increased buying of non-USD currencies as a risk management strategy [7][8].

2025.04. 30 本文字数：2203，阅读时长大约4分钟 作者 | 第一财经 程程 执政百日一直被视为衡量美国总统执政初期表现的关键节点，这一阶段中总统的行动力和影响力往往 达到顶峰。然而，细数过去的100天，如何评价特朗普政府的执政效果？ 复旦大学国际问题研究院院长、美国研究中心主任吴心伯教授对第一财经记者表示："总体来说， （特朗普的这100天）不仅没有多少可以拿出手的政绩，反而激起了美国政治和经济上的动荡，加剧 了国家分裂。如果要对这100天打分的话，这是不及格的100天。" 他解释称，特朗普执政百日，对内大刀阔斧，但破多立少；对外雄心勃勃，但乏善可陈。特朗普虽然 改变了拜登政府在清洁能源、气候变化和多元化等诸多问题上的政策，并且对联邦政府进行大规模的 结构调整和裁减雇员，但这些改变并没有取得预期的效果。截至目前，转向传统能源的举措未能直接 降低美国能源价格，对联邦政府的改革也没有实现大规模降低联邦开支的目标，政府赤字仍在增长。 百条行政令引发百条诉讼 行政令是总统向联邦机构发布的指令，具有法律效力，无须国会批准。 加州大学圣巴巴拉分校的"美国总统计划"（American Presidency P ...

观察者网消息，美方挑起关税战前夕，美国零售巨头沃尔玛公司曾打起"将关税负担转嫁中方"的歪脑筋， 在被中方约谈后，这才开始想起来"找补"。 据香港《南华早报》4月29日报道，在中美贸易争端升级而导致货运量锐减后，最近几天，沃尔玛和其他 美国主要零售商已通知中国江浙地区的部分制造商恢复供货。 "我们的长期合作伙伴沃尔玛已经通知我们开始（向美国）发货，我们不需要承担（对中国商品）新关税 的额外成本。"4月28日，宁波一家大型文具办公用品出口商的副总裁透露，已收到沃尔玛的通知，要求它 们恢复对美国的正常供货。该公司表示，新进口关税的成本将由美国客户承担。此外，江苏也至少有一家 出口商接到了需求复苏的备货通知。 另据香港《明报》4月26日报道，近期正举行的第137届中国进出口商品交易会（广交会）期间，多名出口 商也不约而同提到，在沃尔玛、家得宝（Home Depot）、塔吉特（Target）等零售巨头于当地时间4月21日 同美国总统特朗普会谈后，沃尔玛已通知中国供应商恢复发送因本月初关税战开打而暂时停运的货物，关 税由美方买家承担。 美国一家沃尔玛购物超市 资料图 "我们了解到，（美国）主要零售商已建议其中国供应商恢复 ...

Core Viewpoint - Walmart and other major U.S. retailers have resumed importing goods from China, with the U.S. buyers agreeing to cover the 145% tariffs, indicating a potential shift in U.S. trade policy towards China [1][3][8] Group 1: Retail Industry Response - Major U.S. retailers, including Walmart, Home Depot, and Target, met with President Trump to discuss the impact of high tariffs on their supply chains, expressing concerns about potential inventory shortages and rising prices [1][3] - Following the meeting, these retailers quickly notified Chinese suppliers to resume shipments, suggesting confidence that tariffs would be significantly reduced in the near future [3][8] - The retailers' decision to absorb the tariff costs signals a strong belief that the Trump administration will lower tariffs, possibly to around 20% [8] Group 2: Economic and Political Context - The high tariffs have created significant challenges for the U.S. retail sector, leading to supply chain disruptions and increased consumer prices, which could negatively impact Trump's approval ratings ahead of the elections [4][7] - Trump's potential tariff adjustments are seen as a compromise to alleviate economic pressures while maintaining a tough stance on China, reflecting the complex interplay of economic and political factors [6][7] - The resumption of imports from China by U.S. retailers highlights the interdependence of the U.S. and Chinese economies, suggesting that while trade tensions may continue, both sides need to find a balance to avoid further economic fallout [10]

作为全球体量最大的两个经济体，中美经贸合作为双方带来巨大的经济利益。美国从中国的大量进口支 持了美国制造业供应链和产业链的发展，丰富了美国消费者选择，降低了生活成本，提高了美国民众特 别是中低收入群体实际购买力。即便限制进口，美国国内对"中国制造"的消费需求并不会自动消失。根 据美中贸易全国委员会2024年4月发布的报告，中国是美国商品和服务出口主要市场。2022年，中国是 美国3个州的最大出口市场，32个州的前三大出口市场以及43个州的前五大出口市场，当年美国对华出 口在美创造了93.1万个就业岗位。中美经贸合作是自然禀赋与市场需求共同书写的经济学，而所谓"对 等关税"不过是一场代价高昂的政治表演，最终将被现实拉回本来的轨道。 事实证明，以邻为壑的逆全球化做法不仅有害，也成不了气候。世界各国不可能退回到关起门来自给自 足的状态中去，在全球产业链中"排除中国"更是痴人说梦。经济全球化是生产力发展的客观要求、科技 进步的必然结果，也是人类社会前进的必由之路，是不可逆转的时代潮流。沃尔玛的这份"恢复供货"通 知值得华盛顿深思，希望美方能从此次事件中吸取教训，尽快纠正错误的关税政策，回到在平等、尊 重、互惠的基础上 ...

4月21日，美国三大零售巨头——沃尔玛（Walmart）、家得宝（Home Depot）和塔吉特（Target）的首 席执行官齐聚白宫，与特朗普举行了一场闭门会议。这场会议的核心议题是特朗普政府近期对中国商品 征收高达145%的关税政策对零售行业供应链的冲击。 【零售巨头行动：白宫会晤后迅速通知中国供应商】 然而，令人意外的是，仅仅几天后，这些零售巨头便迅速采取行动，向中国供应商发出通知，要求恢复 因月初关税战而暂停的货物运输，并明确表示关税将由美方买家承担。 这一举动引发了广泛关注。船运从中国到美国通常需要一个月的时间，这意味着这些零售商已经断定， 特朗普政府将在未来一个月内大幅降低对华关税。 否则，他们不可能贸然恢复发货，更不可能主动承诺承担高额关税成本。显然，这些零售巨头通过与特 朗普的直接对话，已捕捉到了关税政策即将调整的明确信号。 【供应链危机迫在眉睫：零售商的无奈与自救】 自4月初特朗普宣布对华商品征收三位数关税以来，美国零售行业陷入了前所未有的混乱。高关税不仅 导致供应链中断，还加剧了物价上涨的压力。 据知情人士透露，沃尔玛、塔吉特和家得宝的高管在白宫会议上警告特朗普，如果关税政策保持不变， 超 ...