2026 年 1 月 31 日 总量研究 二级市场价格波动上涨，首批商业不动产 REITs 已申报 ——REITs 周度观察（20260126-20260130） 要点 1、 二级市场 2026 年 1 月 26 日-2026 年 1 月 30 日（以下简称"本周"），我国已上市公募 REITs 二级市场价格整体呈现波动上行趋势：中证 REITs（收盘）和中证 REITs 全收益指数分别收于 809.56 和 1052.42，本周回报率分别为 0.35%和 0.47%。 与其他主流大类资产相比，回报率由高至低排序分别为：原油> REITs > 纯债 > 美股>A 股>黄金>可转债。 从项目属性来看，本周产权类和特许经营权类 REITs 的二级市场价格均有所上 涨，其中，产权类 REITs 回报率为 0.27%，特许经营权类 REITs 回报率为 0.68%。 从底层资产类型来看，本周水利设施类 REITs 涨幅最大。本周回报率排名前三的 底层资产类型分别为水利设施类、能源类和交通基础设施类。 从单只 REIT 层面来看，有 41 只 REITs 上涨，1 只 REIT 与上周持平，有 36 只 REITs 下 ...

Core Viewpoint - SBA Communications (SBAC) has experienced significant volatility in recent years, primarily due to macroeconomic impacts from post-pandemic interest rate hikes, but the stock is now perceived as attractive for investment opportunities [1]. Company Analysis - The company operates in the telecommunications infrastructure sector, which has been affected by broader economic conditions, particularly interest rate changes [1]. - The stock's current valuation suggests potential for growth, indicating a favorable entry point for investors [1]. Industry Context - The telecommunications infrastructure industry is undergoing shifts due to economic factors, which may present both challenges and opportunities for companies like SBA Communications [1].

NNN REIT, Inc. (NYSE:NNN) is included among the 14 High Yield Dividend Stocks with Sustainable Payouts. Deutsche Bank Sees Relative Opportunity at NNN REIT Despite Weak REIT Backdrop Photo by Dan Dennis on Unsplash On January 20, Deutsche Bank upgraded NNN REIT, Inc. (NYSE:NNN) to Buy from Hold and set a $47 price objective as part of its 2026 outlook. The move came against a tough backdrop for the broader REIT sector. The group has lagged the S&P 500 in each of the past four years and in nine of the la ...

Core Insights - AvalonBay Communities, Inc. (AVB) is set to announce its fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 results on February 4, with a previous negative surprise of 2.14% in core funds from operations (FFO) per share in the last quarter, attributed to weaker-than-expected top-line growth [1][2] Company Performance - Over the past four quarters, AvalonBay's earnings have surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate twice, with an average negative surprise of 0.36% [2] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fourth-quarter revenues is $768.33 million, indicating a year-over-year increase of 3.75% [10] - The consensus for same-store economic occupancy is projected at 95.65% for the fourth quarter [10] - The quarterly core FFO per share estimate has been revised down by 2 cents to $2.84, reflecting a year-over-year growth of 1.43% [11] Market Conditions - The US apartment market experienced a softening in fundamentals during the fourth quarter of 2025, with net move-outs of approximately 40,400 units, marking the first seasonal pullback in three years [3] - Full-year absorption totaled over 365,900 units, indicating a return to long-term leasing trends rather than a demand collapse [3] - Approximately 409,500 units were delivered in 2025, with 89,400 units in the fourth quarter, leading to increased competition despite a slowdown in completions [4] Financial Outlook - AvalonBay has lowered its core FFO per share growth outlook to 2.2% from 3.5%, with same-store residential NOI growth reduced to 2% from 2.7% due to lower revenue growth and higher expense growth [7] - The company has faced challenges from lower-than-expected job growth, leading to revenue moderation and higher operating costs in the second half of 2025 [8] - For full-year 2025, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for core FFO per share has been revised down by 3 cents to $11.24, indicating a year-over-year increase of 2.09% on revenues of $3.04 billion [12] Competitive Landscape - Market performance remains uneven, with supply-heavy Sun Belt markets experiencing the steepest rent pressure, while coastal and tech-oriented metros continue to see rent growth due to tighter supply [5] - AvalonBay's near-term outlook has moderated amid decelerating rent growth and rising expenses, but a solid balance sheet and limited upcoming supply in core markets position the company for long-term stability [6]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the risks associated with shorting REITs, particularly in December 2025, when short interest increased as REIT prices were at their lows, suggesting that this strategy may lead to significant losses as the market rebounds in 2026 [1][3][5]. Group 1: Market Trends and Shorting Dynamics - Short interest in REITs surged in December 2025, coinciding with a market low for these assets [1][3]. - The Vanguard REIT ETF (VNQ) saw a substantial price increase in 2026, indicating that many shorts entered positions at an inopportune time [5]. - The average short position is currently underwater by about 5%, which is not unusual in the stock market [5]. Group 2: Risks of Momentum Investing - Shorting based on momentum is deemed particularly risky, as it assumes that price movements reflect underlying fundamentals, which may not always be the case [7][10]. - The average stock historically rises by 8%-9% annually, meaning that short sellers must outperform this benchmark to avoid losses [11][12]. - The asymmetry of risk in shorting is highlighted, as potential losses are theoretically unlimited while gains are capped at the stock price going to zero [17]. Group 3: Specific REITs Under Scrutiny - Centerspace (CSR) is identified as a heavily shorted REIT, with a short interest increase of 270 basis points in December [14][16]. - Other REITs with significant short interest include NETSTREIT (NTST), Acadia Realty (AKR), and Americold (COLD), each facing unique market conditions that challenge the short thesis [26][34][40]. - CSR is projected to remain profitable, with consensus estimates for FFO per share showing steady growth through 2027, making it a risky short position [20][22]. Group 4: Potential for Short Squeezes - The article suggests that CSR, NTST, AKR, and COLD are well-positioned for potential short squeezes due to high short interest and the stability of their underlying fundamentals [49][50]. - The demand for cold storage properties remains strong, indicating that Americold could recover from current oversupply issues, further complicating the short thesis [42][45]. - The overall sentiment is that shorting stable, profitable companies with high dividend yields is a precarious strategy, especially as market conditions improve [47][49].

Group 1 - The analyst has over a decade of experience researching various companies across different sectors, including commodities like oil, natural gas, gold, and copper, as well as technology firms such as Google and Nokia [1] - The analyst has transitioned from writing a personal blog to creating a value investing-focused YouTube channel, where extensive research on hundreds of companies has been conducted [1] - The analyst expresses a particular interest in covering metals and mining stocks, while also being comfortable with other industries such as consumer discretionary/staples, REITs, and utilities [1]

Group 1 - The article discusses the author's long-term investment approach, focusing on REITs, preferred stocks, and high-yield bonds, which began in high school in 2011 [1] - The author has recently combined long stock positions with covered calls and cash secured puts, indicating a strategy that balances risk and return [1] - The primary focus of the author's coverage on Seeking Alpha includes REITs and financials, with occasional insights on ETFs and other stocks influenced by macroeconomic trends [1]

Core Insights - The article discusses the author's long-term investment approach, focusing on REITs, preferred stocks, and high-yield bonds, which began in high school in 2011 [1] Group 1: Investment Strategy - The company employs a fundamental long-term investment perspective, combining long stock positions with covered calls and cash secured puts [1] - The primary focus areas for analysis include REITs and financials, with occasional insights on ETFs and other stocks influenced by macroeconomic trends [1]

Japan’s bond meltdown last week is threatening to further curb fundraising by real estate investment trusts that has already slowed to a crawl because of rising financing costs https://t.co/kRVjQyVSBX ...

Core Insights - Sabra Health Care REIT (SBRA) has shown significant recovery post-pandemic, indicating potential for further growth while providing dividends [1] Group 1: Company Performance - The company has been recovering well in recent years after being significantly impacted during the pandemic [1] - There is still considerable potential for growth in Sabra Health Care REIT, suggesting it may be an attractive investment opportunity [1] Group 2: Analyst Background - The analyst has over a decade of experience in researching various industries, including commodities and technology, which enhances the credibility of the insights provided [1] - The analyst has transitioned from writing a blog to a value investing-focused YouTube channel, indicating a commitment to thorough research and analysis [1]