农产品日报 | 2026-01-20 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘生猪 2603合约11705元/吨，较前交易日变动-275.00元/吨，幅度-2.30%。现货方面，河南地区 外三元生猪价格13.31元/公斤，较前交易日变动-0.03元/公斤，现货基差 LH03+1605，较前交易日变动+505；江苏 地区外三元生猪价格 13.65元/公斤，较前交易日变动+0.01元/公斤，现货基差LH03+1945，较前交易日变动+665； 四川地区外三元生猪价格12.97元/公斤，较前交易日变动+0.10元/公斤，现货基差LH03+1265，较前交易日变动+575。 据农业农村部监测，1月19日"农产品批发价格200指数"为129.69，比上周五上升1.45个点，"菜篮子"产品批发价格 指数为132.50，比上周五上升1.69个点。全国农产品批发市场猪肉平均价格为18.46元/公斤，比上周五上升2.2%； 牛肉65.67元/公斤，比上周五上升0.7%；羊肉63.55元/公斤，比上周五上升0.2%；鸡蛋8.13元/公斤，比上周五上升 4.2%；白条鸡17.63元/公斤，比上周五上升0.4%。 市场分析 周初生猪价 ...

Core Insights - The overall economic indicators for Sichuan in 2025 show stable grain production, steady livestock development, and continuous growth in residents' income, with a low Consumer Price Index (CPI) and stable urban employment [3] CPI Trends - Sichuan's CPI exhibited a pattern of high opening and low closing, with a year-on-year decline of 0.3% for 2025, influenced by insufficient domestic consumption, price competition in certain industries, and declining prices of pork and international crude oil [4] - The core CPI, excluding volatile food and energy prices, increased by 0.5% year-on-year, indicating a gradual accumulation of domestic demand recovery and improving price signals [6] Consumer Spending Patterns - In 2025, the per capita disposable income in Sichuan reached 36,120 yuan, a nominal increase of 5.2%, while per capita consumption expenditure was 26,073 yuan, with a nominal growth of 4.8% [7] - The share of service consumption in total spending rose, with per capita service expenditure increasing by 6.0%, indicating an upgrade in consumer quality [7] - Cultural and entertainment spending surged by 12.6%, reflecting a vibrant tourism and entertainment market [8] Industrial Price Index - The Producer Price Index (PPI) for industrial producers in Sichuan fell by 2.8% year-on-year, with 64.1% of 39 industrial sectors experiencing price declines [8] - Despite the overall decline, some sectors like electronics and integrated circuits showed price increases, indicating structural upgrades in the industry [8] Livestock Industry Insights - The pig farming sector in Sichuan showed stable development, with a 1.6% year-on-year increase in pig slaughtering and a 4.7% increase in pork production [9] - However, pork prices experienced a significant decline of 16.6% year-on-year in December 2025, attributed to weak demand and increased supply [10]

Core Insights - The articles highlight the significant role of technology specialists in promoting agricultural innovation and improving productivity in rural areas of Baoji City, China [1][2][6][9] Group 1: Technology Promotion and Agricultural Innovation - Liu Xiaoting, a technology specialist, has successfully increased soybean yields to approximately 1,000 yuan per mu through direct guidance and the introduction of new seed varieties [1] - The implementation of a dual promotion mechanism combining project-driven initiatives with demonstration effects has led to the expansion of soybean planting areas and increased farmer income [1] - Wang Boshen, another technology specialist, has improved the survival rate of white feather chickens by 5% through tailored feeding strategies and has addressed industry challenges such as low resource efficiency and environmental pollution [2][3] Group 2: Training and Capacity Building - Training sessions organized by technology specialists have resulted in the development of local experts, enhancing the sustainability of the poultry industry in Meixian County [3] - Zhang Jiayuan has created a "farm calendar" to provide timely technical guidance to farmers, leading to a 20% increase in cherry yields and improved fruit quality [4][5] - The technology specialists have conducted 1,930 training sessions, benefiting over 31,641 farmers and cultivating 1,937 demonstration households and leaders in wealth creation [8] Group 3: Economic Impact and Industry Transformation - The introduction of new sweet potato varieties by Wang Zhao has generated an additional output value of 11 billion yuan, significantly contributing to the local economy [6][7] - The promotion of mechanized farming and integrated water and fertilizer management techniques has been adopted across over 8 million mu, resulting in an economic benefit exceeding 4 billion yuan [7] - The technology specialist system has led to the establishment of 108 enterprises and cooperatives, impacting over 208,000 farmers and enhancing the overall agricultural landscape in Baoji [8][9]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the effective connection between poverty alleviation and rural revitalization in China through the management of assistance project assets, highlighting the need for improved asset management and operational efficiency to prevent asset loss and enhance sustainable income generation [1][2][3][4]. Group 1: Investment and Financial Support - Over the past three years, more than 400 million yuan has been invested in Gansu's Hezheng County to connect the apple, dairy sheep, and edible fungus industries [1]. - In Yunnan's Huigu Village, tens of millions of yuan in financial support has been used to repair ancient roads and revive culture, attracting over 120,000 tourists annually [1]. - During the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, central financial support for rural revitalization reached 850.5 billion yuan, an increase of 32 billion yuan compared to the "13th Five-Year Plan" [1]. Group 2: Challenges in Asset Management - Many assistance project assets face issues such as unclear ownership and poor maintenance, leading to accelerated deterioration and underutilization [2]. - Examples include unused poultry slaughterhouses with investments of several million yuan and irrigation projects generating minimal rental income [2]. - If these issues are not addressed, valuable assets may become sunk costs, hindering comprehensive rural revitalization [2]. Group 3: Asset Management Strategies - The focus should be on establishing a clear asset ownership structure and a multi-level responsibility network for effective management [3]. - It is essential to enhance the operational competitiveness of assets by introducing market mechanisms and professional management [3]. - Strengthening the capabilities of operational entities and providing support in finance and technology are crucial for improving asset profitability and sustainability [3]. Group 4: Technological Empowerment and Regulatory Innovation - The establishment of a digital management platform for assistance project assets is necessary for comprehensive monitoring and data support [4]. - Utilizing big data and IoT technologies can facilitate real-time monitoring and performance evaluation of key assets [4]. - Transitioning to a more transparent regulatory approach will ensure that asset revenues benefit agriculture and rural development effectively [4].

转自：内蒙古日报 本报1月19日讯 （记者 石向军）记者从自治区气象局了解到，受强冷空气侵袭，1月18日起，我区中西 部大部地区气温骤然下降，多地降温幅度超过12℃，最低气温出现在兴安盟阿尔山，达零下44.5℃。 （来源：内蒙古日报） 受冷空气持续影响，1月20日至22日，全区大部降雪稀少，阿拉善盟西部、锡林郭勒盟东北部、赤峰市 西北部、通辽市西北部、兴安盟西北部、呼伦贝尔市西南部和北部有分散性小雪或零星小雪；中部偏 东、东部偏南和偏东地区风力较大，阵风可达7-8级。 寒潮天气对我区农牧业生产造成多方面不利影响，气象部门提醒：相关部门及从业者需密切关注天气变 化，及时落实防范与灾后恢复措施，全力降低寒潮天气对农牧业生产造成的损失。农业方面，要迅速对 设施温棚进行抢修加固，排查棚架、棚膜等设施隐患，及时更换破损棚膜，加固松动棚架；必要时启用 临时加温设备，保障棚内温度稳定，减轻低温冷害影响。畜牧业方面，需分区域精准施策：河套及阴山 周边地区重点加固棚圈、优化补饲方案、强化牲畜疫病防控，抵御降温大风影响；锡林郭勒盟东部偏南 等降雪区域严格管控放牧转场、快速开展除雪保通、强化饲草料调运储备，应对降雪和风吹雪危害；全 ...

Core Insights - The 2025 annual survey data for Sichuan's livelihood indicates steady economic progress, with a focus on agricultural production and consumer spending growth [1][2] Group 1: Economic Performance - Sichuan's total grain production reached 732.5 billion jin, marking a 0.8% increase from the previous year, ranking 7th in growth among 13 major grain-producing provinces and maintaining 9th in total production [1] - The total output of pork, beef, mutton, and poultry in Sichuan was 666.9 million tons, an increase of 21.1 million tons or 3.3% year-on-year, ensuring a solid foundation for livestock product supply [1] Group 2: Income and Consumption - The per capita disposable income for residents in Sichuan was 36,120 yuan, reflecting a real growth of 5.5% compared to the previous year [1] - Per capita consumption expenditure was 26,073 yuan, with a real growth of 5.1% year-on-year, indicating a steady increase in residents' income and consumption willingness [1] - The per capita service consumption expenditure was 11,766 yuan, up 6.0% from the previous year, accounting for 45.1% of total consumption expenditure, which is an increase of 0.5 percentage points, suggesting an upgrade in consumer quality [2]

Core Viewpoint - The pig prices in China have surged, reaching an average of 12.99 yuan/kg, with expectations of a slowdown in price increases after surpassing 13 yuan/kg due to high supply levels and limited consumer demand [2][4]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - As of the end of 2025, the national pig stock is projected to be 42.967 million heads, a slight increase of 0.5% year-on-year, while total meat production is expected to reach 100.72 million tons, a 4.2% increase, marking the first time it exceeds 100 million tons [2]. - Pork production is estimated at 59.38 million tons, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 4.1%, while poultry meat production has increased by 6.7%, indicating a competitive supply landscape [4]. Market Conditions - The current market is characterized by an early supply surge, with consumer demand not yet picking up as it is still early in the lunar month, leading to limited market absorption capacity [4]. - As pig prices rise, slaughterhouses are experiencing increased pressure, resulting in a decreased willingness to purchase at high prices [4]. Profitability and Resistance to Price Decline - The current profitability for self-breeding farmers is approximately 7.4 yuan per pig, marking a return to profitability for the first time since September of the previous year, which may lead to resistance against price declines [5][6]. - Farmers are unlikely to accept significant price drops after achieving profitability, indicating a strong psychological barrier against falling prices [6]. Supply Gaps - There remains a notable gap in the supply of medium to large pigs due to previous market fluctuations, which has not been effectively addressed [8][9]. - The lack of sufficient medium to large pigs could provide support for pig prices once consumer demand increases [9]. Future Price Outlook - Caution is advised regarding potential price increases beyond 13 yuan/kg, as both supply and demand are expected to rise, which may lead to a slowdown in price growth [10]. - Recent data indicates that the reduction in breeding capacity has slowed, with only 290,000 fewer breeding sows reported from October to December, which may impact the overall market dynamics [12].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the agricultural sector [4] Core Views - The report highlights a bullish outlook on the livestock cycle, particularly for beef and dairy, indicating a potential reversal in market trends [3] - The report emphasizes the importance of leading companies in the industry, suggesting that they will benefit from improved cash flows and competitive advantages as the market stabilizes [3] Summary by Sections Livestock - Beef prices are expected to continue rising, with the average price for fattened cattle at 25.66 CNY/kg, up 0.59% week-on-week and 9.38% year-on-year [2] - The average market price for beef is 61.55 CNY/kg, reflecting a 1.05% increase week-on-week and a 21.28% increase year-on-year [2] - The report anticipates a turning point for raw milk prices in 2026, with current prices at 3.02 CNY/kg, down 0.33% week-on-week and 3.20% year-on-year [2] Swine - The report notes a supportive environment for pig prices due to capacity control measures, with current prices at 12.69 CNY/kg, up 1.44% week-on-week [1] - The price for 7kg piglets has surged to approximately 309.05 CNY/head, marking a 22.00% increase week-on-week [1] Poultry - The report indicates a slight increase in supply for broilers, with current prices at 7.52 CNY/kg, up 0.53% week-on-week [1] - The egg price in major production areas is currently 3.60 CNY/jin, reflecting an 11.46% increase week-on-week [1] Feed - The report suggests that the industrialization of livestock farming will deepen, with leading feed companies expected to enhance their competitive advantages through technology and service [3] Investment Recommendations - Recommended companies include: - Livestock: YouRan MuYe, Modern MuYe [3] - Swine: HuaTong Co., DeKang Agriculture, MuYuan Co., Wen's Food, TianKang Bio, ShenNong Group [3] - Poultry: LiHua Co., YiSheng Co., ShengNong Development [3] - Feed: HaiDa Group [3] - Pet Industry: GuaiBao Pet [3]

（文章来源：证券日报） 证券日报网讯 1月19日，牧原股份在互动平台回答投资者提问时表示，公司会根据政策导向、外部市场 环境及自身生产经营情况，合理规划能繁母猪数量。同时，公司由高速发展阶段转向高质量发展阶段， 将持续做好生产管理与经营管理，通过提质增效提升盈利能力。 ...

本期业绩预亏的主要原因：2025年度公司经营业绩出现亏损，主要原因为报告期内公司生猪价格较去年 同期出现较大幅度下降。由于生猪价格下跌，公司按照企业会计准则规定和谨慎性原则，对存栏的消耗 性生物资产计提了存货跌价准备。 格隆汇1月19日丨新五丰(600975.SH)公布，经公司财务部门初步测算，预计公司2025年度实现归属于母 公司所有者的净利润-70,000万元到-96,000万元，与上年同期（法定披露数据）相比，将出现亏损。预 计2025年度实现归属于母公司所有者的扣除非经常性损益后的净利润-72,000万元到-98,000万元。 ...