业接单仍平淡；日化、食品包装膜需求持续；预计下游开工率拐点于8月上旬到来。成本方面，市场对美国 关税政策的忧虑有所缓解，美国对俄罗斯施压、对伊朗制裁离场持续，近期国际油价走强。宏观方面，美 研究员: 林静宜 期货从业资格号F03139610 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0021558 助理研究员: 徐天泽 期货从业资格号F03133092 欧关税达成协议，中美双方将继续推动已暂停的关税展期90天。短期L2509预计震荡走势，日度K线关注72 免责声明 塑料产业日报 2025-07-30 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 期货主力合约收盘价:聚乙烯(日,元/吨) | 7387 | 2 1月合约收盘价:聚乙烯(日,元/吨) | 7442 | 4 | | | 5月合约收盘价:聚乙烯(日,元/吨) | 7424 | -1 9月合约收盘价:聚乙烯(日,元/吨) | 7387 | 2 | | 期货市场 | 成交量(日,手) | 244663 | 4959 持仓量(日,手) | 334157 | ...

Group 1 - The plastic sector experienced a slight increase of 0.19% on July 30, with Shangwei New Materials leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3615.72, up 0.17%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 11203.03, down 0.77% [1] - Key stocks in the plastic sector showed significant price increases, with Shangwei New Materials rising by 9.37% to a closing price of 92.07 [1] Group 2 - The plastic sector saw a net outflow of 1.056 billion yuan from major funds, while retail investors contributed a net inflow of 999.3 million yuan [2] - Among the top gainers, Shangwei New Materials had a net inflow of 39.73 million yuan from major funds, while retail investors contributed a net inflow of 3.53 million yuan [3] - Conversely, Nanjing Zilong experienced a decline of 5.49%, closing at 32.85, with a trading volume of 133,400 shares [2]

目前国内聚丙烯行业仍在继续扩能中，大榭石化PP装置二期一线（45万吨）预计7月底8月初投产，二 期二线（45万吨）预计8月底投产。二期一线产能预计在8月份平稳释放对市场供应冲击力度较大。 新产能逐渐释放冲击现货供应的同时，8月份存量装置检修力度也将减弱。据卓创资讯统计，8月份镇海 炼化1PP、山东京博二线以及延长中煤榆林1PP和2PP等多套停车预计重启，PP国产量预计进一步增长。 据估算，2025年8月国内PP产量在342.8万吨，环比7月增长1.46%，同比去年8月份增长14.34%。 进口市场来看，内外盘长期倒挂下，海外供应商对华报盘热情不足，8月进口规模或将萎缩。综合来 看，在PP国产量持续增长下，前端现货供应随之加剧，PP市场来自供应端的驱动力度趋弱。 7月国内聚丙烯市场在供需、成本双弱拖累下整体震荡下行。8月份来看，在部分检修装置复产和新产能 释放下，PP供应端压力预计增长。但需求端，PP下游领域逐渐走出季节性淡季，下游需求有望好转。 同时煤炭、甲醇预计偏暖对PP市场形成支撑。综合分析，预计8月PP市场价格重心料将有所抬升。 具体来看，7月PP下游领域仍处传统淡季，基本面表现不佳对PP市场驱动力度偏 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights a significant increase in the production of primary plastics in Inner Mongolia, with April 2025 showing a production of 100.7 million tons, representing a year-on-year growth of 35.9% [1] - The growth rate in April 2025 is 37.0 percentage points higher than the same period last year, indicating a robust upward trend in the industry [1] - For the first four months of 2025, the total production of primary plastics reached 377.3 million tons, with a year-on-year increase of 22.7%, which is 21.6 percentage points higher than the previous year [3] Group 2 - The production in April 2025 accounted for 8.6% of the national total of 1,168.6 million tons, while the cumulative production from January to April represented 8.2% of the national total of 4,601.2 million tons [1][3] - The growth rate in Inner Mongolia's plastic production is notably higher than the national average, with a difference of 23.9 percentage points in April and 12.6 percentage points in the first four months [1][3] - The articles provide insights into the historical context of plastic production terminology and the standards for industrial enterprises in China, which have evolved since 2011 [4]

Core Insights - The article discusses the significance of Polyamide 6 (PA6) in various industries and highlights BASF's role as a key supplier in Germany [3][10] - It emphasizes the importance of first-level distributors in the supply chain for PA6 products, detailing their roles in product distribution, market promotion, and customer service [6][10] Group 1: Importance of PA6 - PA6 is a thermoplastic engineering plastic known for its excellent mechanical properties, heat resistance, and processing capabilities, making it widely used in automotive, electronics, packaging, and industrial machinery [3][4] - The demand for high-quality raw materials like PA6 is increasing with industrial development, necessitating reliable suppliers and distributors [3][4] Group 2: BASF's PA6 Products - BASF is recognized for its high-quality PA6 products, which are characterized by stable quality, good processing performance, and environmentally friendly production processes [4][10] - The company targets the European market while also distributing its products globally through partners and distributors, offering various grades and particle sizes to meet diverse customer needs [4][10] Group 3: Role of First-Level Distributors - First-level distributors play a crucial role in connecting manufacturers with end customers, managing product distribution, and ensuring adequate inventory to prevent production interruptions [6][10] - They provide technical support and after-sales service, helping customers address issues encountered during the use of PA6 products [6][10] - Distributors also relay customer feedback and market trends back to BASF, assisting in product and service optimization [7][10] Group 4: Selecting a Reliable Distributor - When procuring PA6, it is essential to choose a reputable distributor with good credentials, quality products, and strong service capabilities [8][10] - Factors to consider include the distributor's reputation, product quality certifications, service quality, and price stability [8][10] Group 5: Future Industry Trends - The production and application of PA6 are evolving with industrial upgrades and increasing environmental requirements, focusing on green production processes and the use of renewable resources [8][10] - BASF and its distributors must adapt strategies to enhance supply chain flexibility and service levels to meet diverse market demands [8][10]

证券之星消息，7月29日塑料板块较上一交易日上涨0.47%，横河精密领涨。当日上证指数报收于 3609.71，上涨0.33%。深证成指报收于11289.41，上涨0.64%。塑料板块个股涨跌见下表： 从资金流向上来看，当日塑料板块主力资金净流出5.62亿元，游资资金净流入4389.1万元，散户资金净流 入5.19亿元。塑料板块个股资金流向见下表： | 代码 | 名称 | 主力净流入 (元) | 主力净占比 游资净流入 (元) | | 游资净占比 散户净流入 (元) | | 散户净占比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 002361 | 神剑股份 | 2.50 Z | 22.67% | -1.32 Z | -11.99% | -1.18 Z | -10.68% | | 301216 | 万凯新材 | 3659.98万 | 8.46% | -1882.36万 | -4.35% | -1777.62万 | -4.11% | | 002395 双象股份 | | 3242.88万 | 11.30% | 1511.47万 | 5.27% | -47 ...

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry or Company Involved - The discussion primarily revolves around the **commodity supercycle** and the impact of **anti-involution policies** on the **midstream materials and manufacturing industries**. Core Points and Arguments 1. **Impact of Anti-Involution Policies**: Anti-involution policies may lead to a revaluation of midstream materials and manufacturing industries, similar to the utility price increase trend observed in 2023-2024. Focus on industries with negative ROC minus VAC indicators, such as **coke, rebar, plastics, fiberglass, and photovoltaic equipment** [1][2][5]. 2. **Drivers of Commodity Supercycle**: The commodity supercycle is driven by **de-globalization** and **de-dollarization**. De-globalization restricts factor flow, raising inflation, while de-dollarization leads to increased commodity pricing. Historical parallels are drawn to the 1970s commodity bull market due to similar conditions [3][9]. 3. **Renminbi Exchange Rate**: The Renminbi's exchange rate is highly correlated with market trends. In the medium term, the price gap between China and the US supports Renminbi appreciation, although short-term risks from US debt issuance could pressure the A-share market [1][6]. 4. **Investment Strategy**: It is recommended to follow the **Barbell Strategy**, allocating 80% of investments to safe assets like **gold, banks, resources, and utilities**, and 20% to sectors with potential catalysts such as **domestic computing power, robotics, and Hainan Free Trade Zone** [1][7]. 5. **US Treasury Account and Interest Rates**: The US Treasury General Account (TGA) needs to be replenished quickly, which may lead to a rise in the 10-year US Treasury yield to near or above 5%. This could impact dollar liquidity and put pressure on the A-share market, particularly growth-style stocks [1][8]. 6. **Historical Context of Anti-Involution**: The current anti-involution policy is seen as part of a broader strategy to address economic deflation, with historical precedents in 1999 and 2015-2016. The focus should also be on demand-side policies [5][11]. 7. **Measuring Industry Involution**: The difference between ROIC and WACC serves as a measure of industry involution. Negative values indicate industries that are not creating value, with many midstream manufacturing and materials sectors currently in this state [12]. 8. **Recent Performance of Involved Industries**: Industries with high involution levels, such as **coke, rebar, plastics, fiberglass, and photovoltaic equipment**, have shown significant recent performance improvements, indicating potential investment opportunities [14]. Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content 1. **Commodity Price Trends**: From July 2022 to the present, gold and silver prices have increased by 100%, while platinum has risen by over 40%. Scarce metals have also seen significant price increases, suggesting a likely upward trend in commodity pricing [10]. 2. **Sector-Specific Insights**: Certain commodities like **alumina and live pigs** have seen price increases not due to anti-involution but rather as part of the broader commodity supercycle, indicating the complexity of market dynamics [15][16]. 3. **Asset Allocation Recommendations**: In the absence of a fundamental reversal in globalization trends, a suggested asset allocation strategy includes 80% in safe assets and 20% in technology and AI sectors, providing a balanced approach to risk management [17].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content. 2. Core View of the Report - The market sentiment driven by previous policies has declined, and most industrial product futures fell during the day, with V2509 dropping 2.68% to close at 5,149 yuan/ton [3]. - In the supply side, last week's PVC capacity utilization rate decreased by 0.80% week - on - week. With the completion of most domestic PVC maintenance in July, and some restarting and continuous shutdown of certain plants next week, the capacity utilization rate is expected to rise slightly, and the new capacity load is gradually increasing, intensifying future supply pressure [3]. - On the demand side, it is the off - season for domestic downstream demand, with only rigid procurement. The Indian BIS certification is postponed to mid - December, and the anti - dumping policy release is delayed, but the rainy season still hinders overseas demand transmission [3]. - In terms of cost, next week, the supply of calcium carbide will exceed demand, putting pressure on prices; the ethylene fundamentals change little, and the price may fluctuate slightly [3]. - From a macro perspective, the EU - US tariff agreement has been reached, and the latest progress of Sino - US tariff negotiations should be monitored. The daily K - line of V2509 should focus on the support around 5,100 [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of PVC futures was 5,149 yuan/ton, a decrease of 224 yuan; the trading volume was 2,133,221 lots, an increase of 269,370 lots; the open interest was 818,506 lots, a decrease of 41,811 lots [3]. - The long positions of the top 20 futures holders were 744,296 lots, a decrease of 6,830 lots; the short positions were 758,920 lots, an increase of 11,247 lots; the net long positions were - 14,624 lots, a decrease of 18,077 lots [3]. 3.2 Spot Market - In the East China region, the price of ethylene - based PVC was 5,175 yuan/ton, an increase of 60 yuan; the price of calcium carbide - based PVC was 5,173.46 yuan/ton, an increase of 72.69 yuan [3]. - In the South China region, the price of ethylene - based PVC was 5,165 yuan/ton, an increase of 30 yuan; the price of calcium carbide - based PVC was 5,135 yuan/ton, an increase of 46.88 yuan [3]. - The CIF price of PVC in China was 700 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the CIF price in Southeast Asia was 680 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the FOB price in Northwest Europe was 750 US dollars/ton, unchanged [3]. - The basis of PVC was - 213 yuan/ton, a decrease of 45 yuan [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The mainstream average price of calcium carbide in Central China was 2,650 yuan/ton, unchanged; in North China, it was 2,581.67 yuan/ton, a decrease of 16.67 yuan; in Northwest China, it was 2,353 yuan/ton, a decrease of 15 yuan [3]. - The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Inner Mongolia was - 550 yuan/ton, unchanged [3]. - The mid - price of VCM CFR in the Far East was 503 US dollars/ton, unchanged; in Southeast Asia, it was 548 US dollars/ton, unchanged [3]. - The mid - price of EDC CFR in the Far East was 211 US dollars/ton, unchanged; in Southeast Asia, it was 219 US dollars/ton, unchanged [3]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The weekly operating rate of PVC was 76.79%, a decrease of 0.8 percentage points; the operating rate of calcium carbide - based PVC was 79.25%, a decrease of 0.46 percentage points; the operating rate of ethylene - based PVC was 70.27%, a decrease of 1.68 percentage points [3]. - The total social inventory of PVC was 42.7 tons, an increase of 1.6 tons; the inventory in East China was 37.82 tons, an increase of 1.41 tons; the inventory in South China was 4.88 tons, an increase of 0.19 tons [3]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The national real estate climate index was 93.6 (with 2012 as the base year of 100), a decrease of 0.12 [3]. - The cumulative completed area of real estate construction was 633,321.43 million square meters; the cumulative new construction area was 8,301.89 million square meters; the cumulative completed real estate development investment was 30,364.32 billion yuan [3]. 3.6 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of PVC was 29.52%, an increase of 4.98 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility was 22.62%, an increase of 3.12 percentage points [3]. - The implied volatility of at - the - money put options was 27.93%, an increase of 6.25 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money call options was 27.91%, an increase of 6.23 percentage points [3]. 3.7 Industry News - On July 28, the spot exchange price of PVCSG5 in Changzhou warehouses decreased by 60 - 80 yuan/ton compared to last Friday, with the price ranging from 5,070 to 5,150 yuan/ton [3]. - From July 12th to 18th, China's PVC capacity utilization rate was 77.59%, a week - on - week increase of 0.62% [3]. - As of July 24th, the PVC social inventory increased by 3.97% week - on - week to 68.34 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 28.23% [3].

Report Summary Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Core View Recently, there are many restarted plants, resulting in a slight increase in supply. However, the demand side is more cautious, and the procurement intensity has slowed down. The demand of downstream factories remains in the off - season, with a low operating rate, and the restocking intensity may remain weak. Secondly, the capacity utilization rate has increased, and the supply has gradually returned. Inventory accumulation is expected next week [6]. Summary by Directory 1. Supply - PE production enterprise operating rate is 78.97%, with a month - on - month increase of 0.97%; PE weekly output is 61.51 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 0.96% [9]. 2. Demand - PE downstream weighted operating rate shows a seasonal decline, with a downstream weighted operating rate of 38.42%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.23% [9]. 3. Inventory - This week, PE enterprise inventory is 50.29 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.99%; social inventory is 55.84 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.06% [9]. 4. Upstream and Cost - No specific summary data about upstream and cost are provided other than some related charts about ethylene production and downstream operating rate. 5. Price and Profit - This week, the PE spot price increased by 0.50% month - on - month to 7412 yuan/ton, and the PE futures price increased by 3.25% month - on - month to 7456 yuan/ton [9]. 6. Basis and Spread - The basis is - 43; the (9 - 1) spread is - 48 [9].

Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index opened high on May 26, 2023, and briefly surpassed 3600 points, marking the first time since February 26 of the same year [1][2] - As of the close on May 26, the index reported 3593.36 points, with a gain of 0.34% [2] - The index has shown a cumulative increase of 0.23% over the 60 trading days from February 26 to May 26, 2023, with 1863 stocks underperforming the market [1][5] Sector Performance - The market saw a divergence in performance among the three major A-share indices, with the Shenzhen Component Index and the ChiNext Index experiencing declines of 0.36% and 0.95%, respectively [2] - The biodegradable plastics sector experienced significant gains, with stocks like Ruifeng High Materials, Yinhui Technology, and Meirui New Materials hitting the daily limit [2] - Other sectors such as aquaculture, paper printing, and longevity drugs also saw increases of over 3% [3] Trading Volume and Capital Flow - On May 26, the trading volume in the Shanghai market reached 455.83 billion yuan, while the Shenzhen market saw 511.01 billion yuan, totaling 966.84 billion yuan across both markets [4] - Northbound capital recorded a net inflow of 9.103 billion yuan on May 26, with a total net inflow of 36.464 billion yuan for May [4] Stock Performance Analysis - Among the 1863 stocks that underperformed, 321 reported net losses in Q1 2021, with companies like SF Express and Liou Co. showing losses exceeding 400 million yuan [8][10] - Notably, some companies have reported consecutive losses over multiple years, raising concerns about their financial health [10] - Stocks such as Chutianlong and Shunkong Development have shown significant gains, with increases exceeding 400% [7]