锡周报 国泰君安期货研究所 有色及贵金属 刘雨萱投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020476 日期：2025年10月26日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 锡：基本面矛盾不突出，价格表现震荡 强弱分析：中性 价格区间：270000-285000元/吨 0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 01-03 01-14 01-26 02-10 02-24 03-07 03-18 03-29 04-11 04-22 05-06 05-17 05-28 06-10 06-21 07-04 07-15 07-26 08-06 08-18 08-29 09-09 09-20 10-08 10-20 11-01 11-15 11-29 12-10 12-22 吨 SMM社会库存 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 01-03 01-14 02-02 02-17 03 ...

Core Insights - The article highlights the transformation of the mining industry in Huangshi, Hubei, through the integration of digital technologies and industrial internet, leading to improved management efficiency and production capabilities [1][2][3] Group 1: Industry Transformation - Huangshi, with over 4,000 years of mining history, is evolving from traditional heavy industries to a more intelligent and data-driven industrial base [2] - The implementation of industrial internet applications has led to significant upgrades in production processes, exemplified by the automation and smart control in companies like Yangxin Hongsheng Copper Industry [2][3] Group 2: Economic Performance - In the first three quarters of this year, the total output value of industrial enterprises above designated size in Huangshi reached 219.798 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 12.7% [3] - The industrial added value also saw a year-on-year increase of 11.4%, with industrial investment and technological transformation investment growing by 33.7% and 25.2%, respectively, indicating robust economic momentum [3]

Group 1 - Company announced the convening of the 9th second temporary board meeting on October 24, 2025, via communication voting [1] - The meeting reviewed the "2025 Third Quarter Report" and other documents [1] - For the first half of 2025, the company's revenue composition was as follows: metallurgy accounted for 96.38%, self-generated electricity 3.02%, and edible oil and by-products 0.6% [1] Group 2 - The current market capitalization of the company is 2.6 billion yuan [1]

Core Viewpoint - The implementation of a green tax system in Qinghai Province's Xining Economic Development Zone has led to significant environmental tax reductions for companies, promoting green development and encouraging businesses to adopt eco-friendly practices [1][2]. Group 1: Environmental Tax Impact - A total of 28 companies in the Ganhe Industrial Park have benefited from environmental tax reductions amounting to approximately 69.35 million yuan due to lower emissions [1]. - Qinghai Yuntianhua International Fertilizer Co., Ltd. has seen a steady decrease in its environmental tax payments over the past two years, attributed to the adoption of energy-saving and emission-reducing technologies [2]. Group 2: Multi-Department Collaboration - The tax bureau, in collaboration with the park management and environmental departments, has initiated environmental protection awareness campaigns to encourage companies to upgrade their facilities and optimize processes for pollution reduction [3]. - A new management model has been established, integrating tax administration, enterprise reporting, environmental monitoring, and information sharing to enhance compliance and support for green initiatives [3]. Group 3: Green Transformation and Development - The Ganhe Industrial Park is experiencing a boost in green, high-quality development, with companies like Qinghai Baihe Aluminum Co., Ltd. and Huanghe Xinye Co., Ltd. adopting green low-carbon and intelligent manufacturing practices [4]. - Huanghe Xinye Co., Ltd. has invested in new environmental facilities, significantly reducing pollution emissions, while Qinghai Baihe Aluminum Co., Ltd. has enhanced its environmental investments to lower its carbon footprint and promote circular production [4].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The zinc market shows a complex structure. The LME zinc has structural risks with a high basis difference, while the domestic zinc inventory reduction rate has slowed down. With the opening of the domestic zinc ingot export window, the Shanghai-London ratio has stabilized. Considering the positive atmosphere in the non-ferrous metal market, the Shanghai zinc is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term [11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Weekly Assessment - **Price Review**: The Shanghai zinc index closed up 0.06% to 22,362 yuan/ton on Friday, with a total long - position of 213,400 lots in unilateral trading. The LME zinc 3S fell 7.5 to 3,027 dollars/ton, with a total long - position of 221,900 lots. The average price of SMM 0 zinc ingot was 22,190 yuan/ton, with Shanghai basis at - 55 yuan/ton, Tianjin basis at - 55 yuan/ton, Guangdong basis at - 90 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai - Guangdong spread at 35 yuan/ton [11]. - **Domestic and Overseas Structure**: Domestic social inventory decreased slightly to 162,100 tons, and SHFE zinc ingot futures inventory was 65,800 tons. The LME zinc ingot inventory was 34,700 tons, and the LME zinc ingot cancelled warrants were 9,900 tons. The overseas cash - 3S contract basis was 225.89 dollars/ton, and the 3 - 15 spread was 56.18 dollars/ton. The cross - market Shanghai - London ratio after excluding exchange was 1.039, and the zinc ingot import profit and loss was - 5,426.56 yuan/ton [11]. - **Industry Data**: The domestic TC of zinc concentrate was 3,250 yuan/metal ton, and the imported TC index was 110 dollars/dry ton. The zinc concentrate port inventory was 270,000 physical tons, and the factory inventory was 628,000 physical tons. The weekly operating rates of galvanized structural parts, die - cast zinc alloy, and zinc oxide were 57.48%, 53.13%, and 56.36% respectively [11]. 3.2 Macro Analysis The report presents multiple macro - related charts including US fiscal and debt data (such as monthly fiscal revenue, expenditure, and deficit MA12, ratio of US national debt to GDP), Fed's balance sheet data (assets and liabilities), dollar liquidity, and manufacturing PMI data of China and the US, as well as new orders and unfilled orders in the US manufacturing and non - ferrous metal manufacturing industries, but no specific analysis conclusions are given [15][17][19][20]. 3.3 Supply Analysis - **Zinc Ore Supply**: In September 2025, the domestic zinc ore output was 314,500 metal tons, a year - on - year change of - 10.0% and a month - on - month change of - 8.8%. The zinc ore net import was 505,400 dry tons, a year - on - year change of 25.2% and a month - on - month change of 8.6%. The total domestic zinc ore supply was 541,900 metal tons, a year - on - year change of 2.0% and a month - on - month change of - 2.2% [25][27]. - **Zinc Ingot Supply**: In September 2025, the zinc ingot output was 600,100 tons, a year - on - year change of 20.2% and a month - on - month change of - 4.2%. The zinc ingot net import was 23,300 tons, a year - on - year change of - 58.1% and a month - on - month change of - 16.2%. The total domestic zinc ingot supply was 623,400 tons, a year - on - year change of 12.3% and a month - on - month change of - 4.7% [33][35]. 3.4 Demand Analysis - **Initial Demand**: The weekly operating rates of galvanized structural parts, die - cast zinc alloy, and zinc oxide were 57.48%, 53.13%, and 56.36% respectively. Their raw material inventories were 13,000 tons, 13,000 tons, and 3,000 tons respectively, and their finished product inventories were 370,000 tons, 10,000 tons, and 5,000 tons respectively [39]. - **Apparent Demand**: In September 2025, the domestic zinc ingot apparent demand was 622,900 tons, a year - on - year change of 8.9% and a month - on - month change of 3.9% [41]. 3.5 Supply - Demand Inventory - **Domestic Zinc Ingot Balance**: In September 2025, the domestic zinc ingot supply - demand difference was a surplus of 500 tons, and the cumulative supply - demand difference from January to September was a surplus of 143,200 tons [52]. - **Overseas Zinc Ingot Balance**: In July 2025, the overseas refined zinc supply - demand difference was a surplus of 3,000 tons, and the cumulative supply - demand difference from January to July was a surplus of 28,200 tons [55]. 3.6 Price Outlook - **Domestic and Overseas Basis Spread**: Domestic social inventory decreased slightly to 162,100 tons, and SHFE zinc ingot futures inventory was 65,800 tons, with an inner - market Shanghai basis of - 55 yuan/ton and a continuous - contract minus first - contract spread of - 40 yuan/ton. Overseas, the LME zinc ingot inventory was 34,700 tons, and the cancelled warrants were 9,900 tons, with an outer - market cash - 3S contract basis of 225.89 dollars/ton and a 3 - 15 spread of 56.18 dollars/ton [60][63]. - **Cross - Market Spread**: The cross - market Shanghai - London ratio after excluding exchange was 1.039, and the zinc ingot import profit and loss was - 5,426.56 yuan/ton [64]. - **Position Analysis**: The top 20 net long positions of Shanghai zinc turned slightly long, the net long positions of LME zinc investment funds decreased, and the net short positions of commercial enterprises decreased. From a position perspective, it is short - term bullish [67].

Core Insights - Henan Yuguang Gold Lead Co., Ltd. reported a revenue of 34.855 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, marking a year-on-year increase of 20.12% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for the same period was 621 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 11.99% [1] - In the third quarter alone, the company achieved a revenue of 12.414 billion yuan, which is a 22.33% increase compared to the previous year [1] - The net profit for the third quarter was 136 million yuan, showing a year-on-year rise of 2.12% [1] Company Overview - Yuguang Gold Lead primarily engages in the smelting and import-export trade of non-ferrous metals and precious metals, including electrolytic lead, silver, gold, cathode copper, and sulfuric acid [1] - The main products of the company include electrolytic lead and lead alloys, silver, gold, cathode copper, and sulfuric acid [1]

Core Viewpoint - The announcement details the cumulative conversion of "Hengbang Convertible Bonds" into shares, indicating that 11.04% of the company's total shares have been converted as of October 23, 2025, with a significant portion of the bonds still unconverted [2][6]. Group 1: Convertible Bond Overview - The company issued 31.6 million convertible bonds on June 12, 2023, with a total fundraising amount of 316 million yuan, netting approximately 312.99 million yuan after expenses [3]. - The bonds were listed on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange on July 7, 2023, under the name "Hengbang Convertible Bonds" and code "127086" [3]. - The conversion period for the bonds started on December 18, 2023, and will last until June 11, 2029 [4]. Group 2: Conversion Status - As of October 23, 2025, a total of 126,710,897 shares have been converted from the bonds, representing 11.04% of the total shares issued before the conversion began [2][6]. - There are still 17,420,614 bonds unconverted, which accounts for 55.13% of the total bond issuance [2][6]. Group 3: Conversion Price Adjustments - The conversion price was adjusted from 11.46 yuan per share to 11.33 yuan on June 12, 2024, and further adjusted to 11.19 yuan on June 12, 2025 [5][6].

Core Viewpoint - The company has released its third-quarter financial report, ensuring the accuracy and completeness of the information disclosed, with no significant omissions or misleading statements [2][3]. Financial Data Summary - The company reported a 125.23% increase in receivables financing compared to the beginning of the period, primarily due to an increase in notes receivable [3]. - Prepaid accounts increased by 74.23%, attributed to the prepayment of raw material purchases [4]. - Other current assets decreased by 58.20%, mainly due to a reduction in VAT credits [4]. - Contract liabilities surged by 775.56%, driven by an increase in advance payments received [4]. - Other income rose by 37.81% year-on-year, primarily due to increased government subsidies related to VAT refunds [4]. Shareholder Information - There are no changes reported in the top ten shareholders or any significant movements in share lending activities [4]. Audit Status - The third-quarter financial report has not been audited [5].

Group 1 - The core point of the news is that Yuguang Jinlan has provided guarantees totaling 2.213 billion yuan to its related parties, Yuguang Group and its subsidiary Yuguang Zinc Industry, with a remaining guarantee balance of approximately 1.416 billion yuan [1] - As of October 24, 2025, the total guarantees provided by Yuguang Jinlan include 615 million yuan for Yuguang Group and 1.598 billion yuan for Yuguang Zinc Industry [1] - The revenue composition of Yuguang Jinlan for the year 2024 is as follows: non-ferrous metals account for 49.24%, precious metals for 46.1%, other industries for 2.45%, chemicals for 2.02%, and other businesses for 0.19% [1] Group 2 - The market capitalization of Yuguang Jinlan is currently 13.9 billion yuan [2]

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that Yuguang Jinlan (SH 600531) held its 23rd meeting of the 9th Board of Directors on October 24, 2025, to review the proposal for the company's Q3 2025 report [1] - For the year 2024, the revenue composition of Yuguang Jinlan is as follows: non-ferrous metals account for 49.24%, precious metals for 46.1%, other industries for 2.45%, chemicals for 2.02%, and other businesses for 0.19% [1] - As of the time of reporting, Yuguang Jinlan has a market capitalization of 13.9 billion yuan [1]