2025 年 07 月 29 日 工业硅：关注今日情绪变化情况 多晶硅：关注今日市场信息 张 航 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0018008 zhanghang2@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 工业硅、多晶硅基本面数据 | | | 指标名称 | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-22 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | Si2509收盘价（元/吨） | 8,915 | -810 | -345 | 1,195 | | | | Si2509成交量（手） | 683,714 | 3,096 | -577,216 | -403,907 | | | | Si2509持仓量（手） | 279,068 | -44,246 | -104,228 | -42,274 | | | 工业硅、多晶硅期货市场 | PS2509收盘价（元/吨） | 49,405 | -1,620 | 3,745 | - | | | | PS2509成交量（手） | 581,460 | -166,501 | -39,854 | - | | | | PS2509持仓量（手） | 136,2 ...

Core Viewpoint - The photovoltaic industry is facing dual challenges from both internal and external factors, necessitating technological advancements to offset cost pressures and strengthen industry self-discipline to curb vicious competition [1][2] Group 1: Industry Challenges and Responses - The China Photovoltaic Industry Association emphasizes the need for consensus and collective efforts to address current difficulties, focusing on innovation to enhance product value [1] - A resilient and collaborative supply chain system is essential for building a more robust industrial ecosystem [1] - The association will support comprehensive governance efforts and enhance self-regulation to combat unhealthy competition [1] Group 2: Quality Improvement and Standards - Suggestions for improving photovoltaic product quality include accelerating the release of guiding documents, enhancing regulatory sampling, and increasing inspection and acceptance efforts [1] - The need for a dedicated standard system for solar storage devices is highlighted due to the challenges posed by extreme environmental conditions [2] Group 3: Regional Development and Capacity - Datong City aims to become an energy city, focusing on the development of renewable energy projects, with installed capacity reaching 10 million kilowatts, including nearly 6 million kilowatts of photovoltaic capacity [2]

Group 1 - The implementation of the national childcare subsidy plan aims to reduce family childbirth costs, providing an annual subsidy of 3600 yuan per child for families with children under three years old, benefiting over 20 million families [2] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology emphasizes the need to consolidate the governance of "involution" competition in the new energy vehicle industry and promote the exit of backward production capacity in the photovoltaic sector [3] - Guangdong Province initiates a campaign to resist low-price disorderly competition in the paper industry, optimizing production capacity structure, marking it as the first industry to take "anti-involution" action in China [4] Group 2 - The U.S. has suspended new export control measures against Chinese entities, with both sides engaging in trade talks in Sweden, signaling a potential easing of tensions [5] - The A-share market sees the first stock with a tenfold increase, with a cumulative rise of 1095% for a company due to speculation following a major acquisition, although the company warns of risks related to its fundamentals [5] - The futures market experiences significant volatility, with main contracts for coking coal and glass hitting the limit down, influenced by "anti-involution" policies and cooling market sentiment [5] Group 3 - Shanghai issues 600 million yuan in computing power vouchers to support the development of large models and computing power scheduling platforms, promoting the AI ecosystem [7] - Huawei releases the Ascend 384 super node and the Zhipu GLM-4.5 model, intensifying the AI computing power competition with the showcase of 3000 technological innovations [8] - Shanghai plans to fully open autonomous driving testing roads in the Pudong New Area by the end of the year, while also advancing similar initiatives in other districts [9] Group 4 - Heng Rui Pharmaceutical collaborates with GSK for a partnership worth 12.5 billion USD, with the innovative drug sector receiving policy support as medical insurance clarifies that "innovative drugs will not be centralized for procurement" [10] - WuXi AppTec reports a 101.92% year-on-year increase in net profit for the first half of the year and raises its full-year revenue guidance to between 42.5 billion and 43.5 billion yuan [11] Group 5 - Oil prices rise nearly 3%, with Brent crude exceeding 69 USD per barrel, driven by a U.S.-EU trade agreement and OPEC's production increase plans [11] - Gold prices fall to a three-week low at 3310 USD per ounce due to a stronger dollar and cooling expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts [12] - The Chinese yuan's central parity rate is adjusted down by 44 basis points to 7.1511 yuan [14]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights positive developments in the Chinese market, including Goldman Sachs raising its MSCI China Index target and various government initiatives to support the AI and industrial sectors [2][3][4]. Group 1: Goldman Sachs' Market Outlook - Goldman Sachs raised its 12-month target for the MSCI China Index from 85 to 90, indicating a potential upside of 10% to 11% from the latest closing price [3]. - The MSCI China Index has increased over 25% year-to-date, with Goldman Sachs shifting its investment strategy to focus on individual stocks, upgrading the insurance and materials sectors to "overweight" while remaining cautious on banks and real estate [4]. - Key factors for the recent market performance include easing international trade tensions, strong Q2 GDP data, and a resurgence in the Hong Kong IPO market, alongside increased foreign interest in Chinese stocks [4]. Group 2: Government Initiatives in AI and Industry - The Shanghai Municipal Economic and Information Commission announced measures to expand AI applications, including issuing 600 million yuan in computing power vouchers and 300 million yuan for AI model applications [6][7]. - The government aims to lower the cost of AI computing power and support the development of AI technologies, including intelligent chips and brain-computer interfaces [6][8]. - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology emphasized the need to enhance policies for emerging industries, including humanoid robots and IoT, to stimulate consumption and industrial growth [10][11]. Group 3: Industry-Specific Developments - The article notes that the solar energy sector is undergoing a "de-involution" process, with recent efforts to stabilize prices and improve profitability across the supply chain [14]. - Analysts suggest that the AI industry in China is poised for continued growth, driven by advancements in AI models and domestic chip performance [9].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - The bullish sentiment in the industrial silicon and polysilicon markets has faded, leading to price corrections. For industrial silicon, the supply may decrease after offsetting increases and decreases, while demand has mixed changes. For polysilicon, the supply is expected to increase slightly, but the demand in the photovoltaic market remains weak [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Price Changes - Industrial silicon: The average price of non - oxygenated 553 (East China) dropped 1.52% to 9,700 yuan/ton, and the 421 (East China) average price fell 1.45% to 10,200 yuan/ton. The futures main contract closing price dropped 8.33% to 8,915 yuan/ton. For polysilicon, N - type dense material, N - type re - feeding material, N - type mixed material, and N - type granular silicon prices remained flat, while the futures main contract closing price dropped 3.17% to 49,409 yuan/ton [1]. Market News - On July 26, the China Tendering and Bidding Network announced the winning candidate publicity for the second batch of photovoltaic module procurement of Guangdong Electric Power Development Co., Ltd. in 2025. Jingao and Hengdian Dongci were short - listed, with Jingao at 0.73 yuan/W and Hengdian Dongci at 0.701 yuan/W, and the procurement volume was tentatively set at 124.09MWp [1]. - Premier Energies plans to build a new 1.2GW TOPCon solar cell production line in Telangana, India, which will increase its solar cell production capacity from 2GW to 3.2GW [1]. Investment Strategy - Industrial Silicon - Supply side: Northern large factories have production cuts with no restart news, while Southwest production areas are in the wet season with lower power costs and a slow increase in enterprise operations. Overall, supply may decrease after offsetting [1]. - Demand side: Polysilicon enterprises maintain production cuts, with some restarts in July to bring demand increments; the organic silicon industry has a strong willingness to cut production to support prices, but demand is weak; silicon - aluminum alloy enterprises purchase as needed, and downstream low - level inventory willingness is insufficient [1]. Investment Strategy - Polysilicon - Supply side: Polysilicon enterprises maintain production cuts, and some new production capacity may be put into use, with an expected slight increase in production in July, approaching 110,000 tons [1]. - Demand side: The photovoltaic market is weak, with rising inventories of silicon wafers and polysilicon. Although the downstream silicon wafer prices have followed the increase due to the expected price increase of polysilicon, the terminal market is still weak [1].

智通财经7月29日早间新闻精选 1、当地时间7月28日，中美两国经贸团队在瑞典斯德哥尔摩举行中美经贸会谈。 2、国家育儿补贴制度实施方案7月28日公布。育儿补贴制度从2025年1月1日起，对符合法律法规规定生 育的3周岁以下婴幼儿发放补贴，育儿补贴按年发放，现阶段国家基础标准为每孩每年3600元，发放补 贴至婴幼儿年满3周岁。对2025年1月1日之前出生、不满3周岁的婴幼儿，按应补贴月数折算计发补贴。 3、据报道，为了营造经贸会谈的氛围，美国方面已经同意暂停对中国实体出台新的出口管制措施。对 此，外交部发言人郭嘉昆28日在主持例行记者会时表示，中美的经贸合作本质上是互利共赢的。 4、上海市经济信息化委28日发布《上海市进一步扩大人工智能应用的若干措施》。其中提到，降低智 能算力使用成本，发放6亿元算力券，加强算力调度平台建设，体系化支持企业研发和应用大模型，加 快大模型生态空间集聚。 5、广东省造纸行业协会近日发布《关于推动广东省造纸行业"反内卷"促进行业高质量发展的倡议 书》。其中提到，坚决杜绝低于成本的倾销行为，抵制通过不正当手段套取补贴或抢占市场。 6、全国工业和信息化主管部门负责同志座谈会7月28日在 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the challenges and opportunities faced by Sig Energy, a company focused on distributed photovoltaic energy storage solutions, as it approaches its IPO deadline. The company is experiencing rapid growth but also significant financial pressures, making its successful IPO critical for its future expansion and survival [3][4][13]. Group 1: Company Overview - Sig Energy specializes in innovative distributed photovoltaic energy storage solutions, with its core product being a stackable energy storage system. It holds a 24.3% market share in the global market for such systems as of Q3 2024, ranking first [4]. - Founded less than three years ago, Sig Energy submitted its prospectus for an IPO on February 21, 2025, aiming to list on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange [5]. Group 2: Financial Performance - From May 2022 to September 2024, the net cash flow used in operating activities totaled approximately 606 million RMB, while cash flow from financing activities exceeded 1 billion RMB, indicating a reliance on financing for operations [9]. - The company reported a cumulative loss of 503 million RMB from 2022 to Q3 2024, despite revenue soaring from zero in 2022 to 700 million RMB in the first three quarters of 2024 [16]. Group 3: IPO Challenges - The China Securities Regulatory Commission raised compliance questions regarding Sig Energy's equity holding, tax and debt disputes, and data security, which could delay the IPO process [6][8]. - If the IPO is unsuccessful, Sig Energy may face significant challenges in its global expansion strategy and potential liquidity issues [14]. Group 4: Competitive Landscape - Sig Energy faces intense competition in the distributed energy storage market, particularly from rivals like Mova Energy, founded by a former Huawei executive, which poses a direct threat in the European market [32]. - Domestic competitors, such as Airo Energy, are also vying for market share, emphasizing the need for Sig Energy to maintain its competitive edge [34]. Group 5: Growth Strategy - The company has adopted an aggressive global expansion strategy, increasing its distributor network from zero to 99 across over 60 countries from 2022 to Q3 2024 [19]. - Sig Energy's sales incentive policies, such as reward points for distributors based on installation volumes, have proven effective in boosting sales and market presence [22]. Group 6: Future Outlook - The success of the IPO is crucial for Sig Energy to secure the necessary capital for continued growth and to address its high operational costs [30]. - The impending IPO deadline of August 21, 2025, represents a significant test for the company, as it must navigate both financial pressures and competitive threats [40].

Core Viewpoint - The draft amendment to the Price Law aims to regulate market pricing order and provide legal grounds for addressing "involutionary" competition, particularly through the establishment of standards for identifying predatory pricing and enhancing cost supervision [1][2][3]. Group 1: Regulating Market Pricing Order - The amendment emphasizes the need to improve standards for identifying predatory pricing, stating that operators must not engage in below-cost pricing to eliminate competitors or monopolize the market [2][3]. - Cost supervision is highlighted as a key focus, with legal responsibilities outlined for operators who refuse or provide false information during cost audits [2][3]. - The macro root cause of "involutionary" competition is identified as strong supply and weak demand, with the need for market-oriented and legal approaches to regulation [3][4]. Group 2: Legal Basis for Addressing Price Wars - The draft provides a legal foundation for preventing below-cost sales, which is crucial for addressing the issue of "involution" in various industries, particularly those with high marketization and significant employment impact [3][4]. - Recent legal regulations, such as the implementation of the Fair Competition Review Regulations and the revision of the Anti-Unfair Competition Law, support the framework for combating predatory pricing [3][4][5][6][7]. Group 3: Government Pricing Mechanism - The draft proposes a shift from fixed pricing levels to a more flexible pricing mechanism, allowing for cost-linked adjustments and periodic reviews [5]. - Enhanced price cost supervision is mandated, requiring verification of the authenticity of operators' costs and the elimination of unreasonable expenses [5]. - The government pricing mechanism is expected to better reflect market supply and demand, particularly in public utilities and natural monopoly sectors [5].

Group 1: Economic Policies and Initiatives - The Chinese government announced a child-rearing subsidy plan, providing 3,600 yuan annually for each child until the age of three, starting from January 1, 2025 [1] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology emphasized the need to strengthen governance in key industries such as new energy vehicles and solar energy, aiming to eliminate outdated production capacity through enhanced standards [1] - The National Taxation Administration reported that during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, tax revenue is expected to exceed 155 trillion yuan, accounting for about 80% of total fiscal revenue, with a cumulative reduction in taxes and fees of approximately 10.5 trillion yuan [1] Group 2: Corporate Developments - WuXi AppTec reported a 20.64% year-on-year increase in revenue to 20.799 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, with a net profit growth of 101.92% to 8.561 billion yuan [1] - The company adjusted its full-year revenue guidance upward, now expecting total revenue between 42.5 billion and 43.5 billion yuan [1] - China National Chemical Corporation plans to acquire 100% equity of Nantong Xingchen, with stock resuming trading [7] Group 3: Market Trends - The total market capitalization of listed companies in China surpassed 90 trillion yuan, marking the highest point in nearly three years [1] - The Shanghai Municipal Economic and Information Technology Commission issued measures to expand the application of artificial intelligence, including a 600 million yuan subsidy for computing power [1] - The Hong Kong stock market will implement a reduction in the minimum price fluctuation for stocks starting August 4, aimed at lowering trading costs and improving efficiency [1]

Group 1 - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology emphasizes the need for enhanced governance in key industries such as photovoltaic and new energy vehicles, aiming to eliminate outdated production capacity through standard upgrades [1] - The meeting focuses on deepening reforms and modernizing industry governance, which is expected to positively influence the long-term healthy development of the industry [1] Group 2 - China National Petroleum Corporation Capital, through its subsidiary Kunlun Capital, has acquired a 20% stake in both Fusion New Energy (Anhui) Co., Ltd. and China Fusion Energy Co., Ltd., indicating a strategic interest in the fusion energy sector [2] - The investment in fusion energy reflects a potential new avenue for capital deployment, supporting technological breakthroughs and the transformation of the energy structure [2] Group 3 - Guoneng Rixin has announced that the acquirer Yongzheng and its concerted party Ding Jiangwei plan to gain control of the company through a private placement, which has received approval from the shareholders' meeting and regulatory bodies [3] - The acquisition will result in the acquirer holding over 30% of Guoneng Rixin's equity, triggering a mandatory tender offer, but the acquirer has committed to not transferring the newly issued shares for three years, allowing for a smooth transaction [3] - The funds raised from the private placement are expected to facilitate the company's business expansion and innovation in new energy information products [3]