Core Viewpoint - The central government has prioritized the development of the central region of China, which consists of six provinces, emphasizing its strategic importance in national economic growth and modernization efforts [1][2]. Group 1: Economic Growth and Development - Since the implementation of the strategy to promote the rise of the central region in 2004, the economies of the six provinces (Shanxi, Anhui, Jiangxi, Henan, Hubei, Hunan) have experienced sustained rapid growth, solidifying their roles as key contributors to national economic development [2][3]. - The GDP of the central six provinces is projected to grow from less than 15 trillion yuan in 2015 to approximately 28 trillion yuan by 2024, with a compound annual growth rate of 7.5%, outpacing the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region and the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macau Greater Bay Area [6]. Group 2: Industrial Structure and Modernization - The central region is focusing on building a modern industrial system, with an emphasis on advanced manufacturing and high-tech industries, while also optimizing its industrial structure [3][8]. - The region has established several advanced manufacturing clusters, including rail transit equipment in Zhuzhou, engineering machinery in Changsha, and optoelectronic information in Wuhan, showcasing its competitive edge in various sectors [8][9]. Group 3: Innovation and Technology - The central region aims to enhance its R&D investment to reach the national average by 2025, targeting a ratio of R&D expenditure to GDP of approximately 2.5% [4]. - Cities like Hefei and Wuhan are leveraging their educational and research institutions to foster innovation, particularly in emerging industries such as quantum computing and laser technology [9]. Group 4: Urbanization and Population Dynamics - The urbanization rate in the central six provinces is increasing at a pace faster than the national average, with projections indicating that by 2024, the urbanization rate in Henan will be 59.2% and the other five provinces will exceed 60% [6][7]. - The demographic structure is favorable, with a lower proportion of the population aged 65 and above compared to the national average, indicating a robust labor supply and long-term consumption potential [7]. Group 5: Agricultural and Energy Security - The central region plays a crucial role in ensuring national food security, contributing 28.92% of the total grain production in China in 2024, with a total output of 204.318 million tons [10]. - Shanxi, as a major coal-producing province, is also pivotal in energy security, with a coal output of 1.269 billion tons in 2024, accounting for 26.7% of the national total [10]. Group 6: Policy Support and Future Directions - The implementation of policies aimed at promoting the rise of the central region is expected to provide strong support for future development, with a focus on high-quality growth and sustainable development [7][12]. - The central provinces are encouraged to enhance their advanced manufacturing capabilities, innovate in production processes, and support the transformation of traditional industries through new technologies and business models [11][12].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current economic operation is in a neutral range, and the marginal change in the economy compared to 2024 may lie in consumption [2][104]. - The negative economic cycle of "sharp decline in housing prices, sharp decline in the stock market - wealth shrinkage - consumption downgrade" in the past two years has come to an end [2][104]. - Pay attention to the progress of future China - US trade negotiations and whether the fentanyl tariff can be reduced to 0, as well as possible policy adjustments for weak business reception activities that may affect consumption [2][104]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Macro News - On June 24, six departments including the People's Bank of China jointly issued the "Guiding Opinions on Financial Support for Boosting and Expanding Consumption", which aims to activate markets such as automobiles, culture and tourism, and elderly care through various measures [8]. - On June 26, the Financial Regulatory Administration and others issued the "Implementation Plan for the High - Quality Development of Inclusive Finance in the Banking and Insurance Industries", aiming to build a high - quality inclusive finance system and solve the financing problems of small and micro enterprises, "agriculture, rural areas, and farmers", and new citizens [8]. - The second - quarter meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee of the People's Bank of China in 2025 was held on June 23. It was more cautious about the world economic growth momentum and more optimistic about the domestic economy. The probability of a recent reserve requirement ratio cut and interest rate cut is low [8]. - From January to May 2025, the total profit of industrial enterprises above designated size was 2.72 trillion yuan, a year - on - year slight decrease of 1.1%. However, the profit structure had highlights, with the profit of the equipment manufacturing industry increasing by 7.2% [9][10]. - Israel and Iran announced a formal cease - fire, leading to a significant decline in domestic and international oil prices recently [13]. 3.2 Medium - term High - Frequency: Consumption and Production Show Differentiated Recovery Characteristics 3.2.1 Consumption: Policy Stimulus Shows Remarkable Results - As of the week of June 22, the average daily retail volume of passenger car manufacturers increased by 30.0% year - on - year, and the average daily wholesale volume increased by 1.4% year - on - year [16][19]. - As of the week of June 13, the retail volume and retail amount of three major household appliances increased by 24.6% and 13.5% year - on - year respectively [16][25]. 3.2.2 Transportation: Supply Chain Resilience is Prominent - As of the week of June 22, the container throughput of ports increased by 5.3% year - on - year, railway freight volume increased by 2.4% year - on - year, and highway truck traffic volume increased by 0.7% year - on - year [17][27]. - As of the week of June 22, the number of civil aviation flights guaranteed increased by 1.7% year - on - year, and as of June 27, the average passenger volume of subways in first - tier cities in the past 7 days increased by 2.3% year - on - year [17][36]. 3.2.3 Capacity Utilization: Infrastructure Chain is Stronger than Chemical Chain - As of June 25, the blast furnace capacity utilization rate of major steel enterprises nationwide was 77.6%, a year - on - year increase of 2.2 pct, and as of June 26, the average asphalt capacity utilization rate was 25.0%, a year - on - year increase of 1.0 pct [17][49]. - As of June 26, the soda ash capacity utilization rate was 85.7%, a year - on - year decrease of 1.6 pct, and the PVC capacity utilization rate was 74.9%, a year - on - year decrease of 1.5 pct [17][53]. 3.2.4 Real Estate: Continuously Under Pressure - As of June 27, the transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium - sized cities in the past 7 days increased by 0.5% year - on - year, and the number of transactions decreased by 2.0% year - on - year [18][62]. - As of June 22, the listing price index of second - hand houses in national cities decreased by 7.5% year - on - year [18][67]. 3.2.5 Price: Commodity Prices are Under Pressure - As of June 27, the average wholesale price of pork decreased by 16.8% year - on - year, and the average wholesale price of vegetables decreased by 0.8% year - on - year [18][75]. - As of June 27, the average spot price of WTI crude oil was 67.4 US dollars per barrel, a year - on - year decrease of 17.0% [18][81]. 3.3 Bond Market and Foreign Exchange Market: Structural Easing Coexists with Cross - Month Pressure - On June 27, the yields of 1 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bonds were 1.35%, 1.51%, 1.65%, and 1.85% respectively, with changes of - 1.0BP, + 0.3BP, + 0.6BP, and + 1.3BP compared to June 20 [2][89]. - On June 27, the central parity rate and spot exchange rate of the US dollar against the Chinese yuan were 7.16/7.17, down 68/147 pips compared to June 20 [94]. 3.4 Institutional Behavior: The Duration of Credit Bond Funds has Decreased - As of June 29, the net - breaking rate of public wealth management products of wealth management companies was about 0.81%, a decrease of 1.16 pct compared to the beginning of the year, and the current net - breaking rate's percentile within the year was below 5% [96]. - As of June 27, the median and average duration of medium - and long - term pure bond funds for interest - rate bonds were about 4.7 years and 5.1 years respectively, an increase of about 0.12 years compared to the previous week; the median and average duration of medium - and long - term pure bond funds for credit bonds were about 1.9 years and 2.1 years respectively, a decrease of about 0.19 years compared to the previous week [97][98]. 3.5 Investment Suggestions - Be bullish on long - duration urban investment bonds and bank capital bonds with a yield of over 2%. Currently, the yield of 10Y treasury bonds is close to a historical low, and the cost - effectiveness of investing in interest - rate bonds is low. Among interest - rate bonds, local bonds have a higher cost - effectiveness than treasury bonds [104]. - Continue to pay attention to Hong Kong - listed banks. The low interest rates in the domestic market may drive up the valuations of high - dividend stocks [104].

Core Viewpoint - The recent data from the China Small and Medium Enterprises Association indicates a recovery in the development index for small and medium enterprises (SMEs), reflecting the positive impact of government policies aimed at supporting these businesses [1][2]. Group 1: SME Development Index - In May, the SME Development Index (SMEDI) rose to 89.5, an increase of 0.3 points from April, ending a two-month decline and indicating a clear recovery trend [1]. - All sub-indices, including macroeconomic sentiment, comprehensive operation, market, funding, labor, input, and efficiency indices, showed improvement compared to April, while the cost index remained stable [1]. - Various industries, including manufacturing, transportation, real estate, wholesale and retail, information transmission, software, and accommodation and catering, experienced rising indices, indicating overall stability and improvement in industry operations [1]. Group 2: Government Support Initiatives - A collaborative initiative involving 17 government departments has launched the "Together Benefit Enterprises" action plan for SMEs, introducing 73 measures to enhance policy support, environmental improvement, innovation, talent development, and legal protection [2]. - The "Hundred Events, Ten Thousand Enterprises" initiative aims to facilitate market expansion for SMEs through various activities [2]. - Financial institutions have reportedly provided over 18 trillion yuan in new credit to SMEs as part of a coordinated financing support mechanism [2]. Group 3: Challenges Facing SMEs - Despite the positive trends, SMEs still face significant challenges, including cautious lending practices from financial institutions due to their small scale, lack of management standards, and insufficient collateral [3]. - Market competition remains tough, particularly for private enterprises that often deal with delayed payments and discrimination [3]. - SMEs struggle with limited funding and talent, leading to inadequate investment in technology and innovation, which hampers their competitiveness [3]. Group 4: Policy Recommendations - Effective policy implementation is crucial, with fiscal and tax incentives tailored to different regions and industries to alleviate the burden on SMEs [4]. - Monetary policy should encourage financial institutions to increase credit availability and reduce financing costs for SMEs [4]. - A fair market environment is essential, requiring the elimination of discriminatory regulations and ensuring timely payments from larger enterprises and government entities to SMEs [4].

Domestic Macro Policy - China and the US have reached a framework to implement the consensus from the Geneva talks, emphasizing the importance of professional and rational communication between both sides[5] - The State Council has initiated measures to replicate and promote pilot programs from the China (Shanghai) Free Trade Zone, focusing on new models for real estate development[3] - The central government is pushing for state-owned capital to concentrate in key industries related to national security and the economy's lifeblood[13] Monetary Policy - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) may consider further reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cuts to ensure liquidity remains reasonably ample in the second half of the year[4] - A 1 trillion yuan reverse repurchase operation was announced to maintain liquidity in the banking system, with a total of 4.2 trillion yuan in interbank certificates maturing in June[16] Consumption and Regulation - Local authorities are intensifying regulation of trade-in programs due to frequent cases of subsidy fraud, with measures in place until December 31, 2025[4] - The regulatory emphasis includes strict compliance checks on pricing and promotional practices to prevent fraudulent activities[18] Financial Regulation - Financial regulatory policies are increasingly focused on enhancing financial support for technological innovation and refining new insurance contract accounting standards[19] - The government encourages banks to collaborate with investment institutions to support early-stage, small, long-term, and hard technology investments[21] International Trade - The US has raised tariffs on imported steel and aluminum products from 25% to 50%, effective June 4, 2025, impacting various consumer goods[27] - The first meeting of the China-US economic and trade consultation mechanism took place in London, with both sides expressing a commitment to deepening cooperation[22]

Trade Trends - In May, U.S. imports showed weakness, but a recovery is expected in June, although it may not return to the high levels seen in Q1[2] - After the tariff reduction in mid-May, shipping rates significantly increased, indicating a rise in trade demand[2] - Container data shows a notable decline in U.S. imports from China in May, while imports from countries like Vietnam remained high due to tariff impacts[2] Economic Indicators - The global manufacturing PMI export orders rose by 0.7 to 48 in May, with notable improvements in developed and emerging markets excluding China[4] - U.S. consumer spending on services and goods has weakened, with hotel occupancy rates slightly below seasonal norms and retail indices showing a slowdown[4] - Investment expectations among U.S. businesses showed a low recovery in May, while production indicators weakened[5] Inflation and Financial Conditions - Inflation expectations remain stable, with retail prices rising slightly since mid-May, reflecting ongoing tariff impacts[5] - Financial conditions in the U.S. have continued to improve since mid-May, as indicated by Goldman Sachs and Bloomberg financial condition indices[6] Risks and Observations - The potential for renewed volatility in U.S. tariff policies poses a risk, alongside the possibility of weaker-than-expected employment data[7]

Core Insights - The Small and Medium Enterprises Development Index (SMEDI) in China rose to 89.5 in May, an increase of 0.3 points from April, marking a significant recovery after two months of decline [1] - The improvement in the index is attributed to enhanced macroeconomic policies, better supply-demand relationships in certain industries, and a noticeable recovery in economic sentiment, which has positively influenced small and medium enterprises' performance and investment willingness [1] Economic Indicators - In May, various economic indices showed positive changes compared to April: - Macroeconomic sentiment index increased by 0.7 points - Comprehensive operation index rose by 0.6 points - Market index up by 0.2 points - Capital index increased by 0.3 points - Labor index grew by 0.2 points - Input index up by 0.4 points - Efficiency index increased by 0.4 points - The cost index remained stable compared to April, indicating a favorable trend in the operational environment for small and medium enterprises [1] Industry Performance - In May, several industries experienced growth compared to April: - Industrial sector increased by 0.6 points - Transportation sector rose by 0.6 points - Real estate sector up by 0.2 points - Wholesale and retail sector increased by 0.1 points - Information transmission and software sector grew by 0.4 points - Accommodation and catering sector also rose by 0.4 points - However, the construction and social services sectors saw declines of 0.2 points and 0.3 points, respectively, indicating a mixed performance across industries [1] Regional Analysis - The development indices for small and medium enterprises in May by region were as follows: - Eastern region: 90.5 - Central region: 90.3 - Western region: 88.7 - Northeastern region: 81.8 - The ongoing release of policy effects has led to a noticeable recovery in development expectations for small and medium enterprises, although challenges remain due to external uncertainties and the need for further domestic demand and consumption stimulation [2]

Domestic Macro - Demand Side - As of June 6, 2025, subway passenger volume growth is 1.39% year-on-year, but down 3.67% month-on-month[1] - Retail sales of passenger cars in May reached 1.93 million units, a 13% increase year-on-year and a 10% increase month-on-month[1] - During the Dragon Boat Festival, the number of travelers increased by 26.6% compared to 2019, while travel income grew by 8.6%[1] Domestic Macro - Supply Side - As of early June, the operating rate of blast furnaces decreased by 0.6 percentage points to 83.54%[1] - The operating rate of rebar production fell to 41.95%, a month-on-month decrease of 0.35 percentage points[2] - The operating rate of pure alkali production increased by 2.19 percentage points to 80.76%[1] Price Performance - As of June 6, 2025, the average wholesale price of pork fell by 0.72% week-on-week, while the average price of 28 monitored vegetables rose by 0.52%[1] - WTI and Brent crude oil prices increased by 1.6% and 3.53% respectively during the week[3] - The PPI showed a mixed trend, with copper prices rising by 3.97% while aluminum prices fell by 0.51%[1] Fiscal and Investment - A total of 176 billion yuan in special government bonds were issued this week, bringing the cumulative issuance to 934 billion yuan[2] - The issuance progress of local special bonds (including debt relief) reached 49.4% as of June 7, 2025[2] - The investment in infrastructure is expected to rise as cement shipment rates and asphalt operating rates recover[2] Economic Data - The US economy is showing signs of slow down, with the ISM manufacturing PMI at 48.5 and non-manufacturing PMI at 49.9 for May[3] - Non-farm employment in the US increased by 139,000 in May, with the unemployment rate slightly rising to 4.24%[3] - The Eurozone's May CPI growth rate decreased to 1.9%, indicating marginal economic improvement[3]

Core Viewpoint - The manufacturing PMI in May shows signs of recovery, indicating the effectiveness of proactive macro policies, while the non-manufacturing sector continues to expand, laying a solid foundation for economic recovery [1][3][9]. Manufacturing Sector - The manufacturing PMI for May is reported at 49.5%, an increase of 0.5 percentage points from the previous month, while the comprehensive PMI output index is at 50.4%, up by 0.2 percentage points [1]. - Key sub-indices such as production, new orders, and procurement have shown improvement, with increases ranging from 0.2 to 3.7 percentage points [3]. - High-tech manufacturing PMI remains in the expansion zone at 50.9%, marking four consecutive months of growth [2][3]. Non-Manufacturing Sector - The non-manufacturing business activity index stands at 50.3%, maintaining above the expansion threshold for five consecutive months [9]. - Significant growth in new orders and export orders in the equipment manufacturing and high-tech sectors, with new export orders rising over 5 and 3 percentage points respectively [4][10]. Price Indices - The purchasing price index for manufacturing is at 46.9%, and the factory price index is at 44.7%, both showing a slight decrease but with a narrowing decline compared to the previous month [6]. - The overall market price decline has slowed, indicating a potential stabilization in demand and production [6]. Employment and Investment - Production investment is showing signs of recovery, contributing to an improving employment situation [7]. - The focus is on activating the domestic market and achieving the goal of expanding domestic demand to support economic circulation [7]. Economic Outlook - The overall economic operation shows a foundation for continued recovery, supported by stable non-manufacturing activities and positive performance in investment, consumption, and exports [8][10].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the new trends in employment and wage data for urban employees in 2024, highlighting shifts from high salary pursuits to a focus on reducing work intensity and improving hourly wages across various sectors [1]. Group 1: Employment Trends - Trend 1: Employment is shifting from "pursuing high salaries" to "anti-involution," with a notable decrease in average wage growth for urban non-private sector employees, which has dropped to 2.8% in 2024, down 6.8 percentage points since 2021 [2][9]. - The transportation, leather, and clothing industries have shown resilience in wage growth, with transportation revenue growth exceeding 8% in 2024, while the average wage in the non-private sector is 124,000 yuan [2][9]. - Employment is increasingly moving towards sectors with shorter working hours and higher hourly wages, such as healthcare, where weekly working hours decreased by 1.5 hours and hourly wages increased by 9.3 yuan from 2021 to 2023 [2][32]. Group 2: Regional Wage Convergence and Employment Consumption - Trend 2: There is a convergence in wage growth between eastern and western regions, with the wage growth rate in eastern urban non-private sectors at 7.5% from 2019 to 2023, compared to 7.1% in the western regions, narrowing the gap from 0.8 percentage points in 2019 to 0.5 percentage points in 2024 [4][52][53]. - Employment in the service sector is increasingly migrating towards the western regions, driven by stronger wage growth resilience in these areas, particularly in hospitality and retail sectors [4][75]. - The shift in consumer behavior from local to cross-province consumption is further concentrating employment in the service sector in the western regions, with significant growth in consumer spending in these areas [5][80]. Group 3: Wage Growth in Private and Flexible Employment - Trend 3: Some private and flexible employment sectors are experiencing wage increases, particularly in the service industry, where private sector wage growth is higher than in non-private sectors, with education and retail showing increases of 8.9% and 5.3% respectively [6][96]. - The average wage growth for private sector employees has decreased to 1.7%, while flexible employment, particularly in new roles like ride-hailing drivers and delivery personnel, has seen a rise in average monthly income to 10,506 yuan, significantly higher than traditional employment [7][114]. - New flexible employment roles are characterized by higher pay but also increased work intensity, with platform-based workers averaging 54.3 hours per week, compared to traditional workers [7][122].

Core Viewpoint - The implementation of "Yue Che Nan Xia" (Cantonese cars going south) is expected to stimulate Hong Kong's economy by attracting high-spending visitors, with details anticipated to be announced by the end of the year [1][2][3]. Group 1: Policy Implementation - "Yue Che Nan Xia" is set to allow Guangdong and Macau private cars to park at automated parking facilities on the Hong Kong-Zhuhai-Macao Bridge, with the first phase limited to these parking areas [1][2]. - The first phase will include two automated parking lots providing 1,800 parking spaces and 200 drop-off spots, with a fully automated vehicle transfer system [2]. - The second phase may allow cars to enter Hong Kong's urban areas, subject to quota limits [1][2]. Group 2: Economic Impact - The policy is expected to boost high-consumption tourism, particularly from families, although initial phases may lack attractiveness due to limited parking options [2][3]. - The Hong Kong government is keen to welcome mainland visitors to enhance economic development [1][2]. Group 3: Challenges and Considerations - Concerns have been raised regarding the limited parking space in urban areas, which may negatively impact visitors' experiences [3]. - Differences in driving habits and traffic regulations between mainland China and Hong Kong could pose challenges for mainland drivers adapting to local conditions [3]. - Suggestions have been made to ensure that only applicants with sufficient spending power are allowed to participate in the program [3]. Group 4: Future Prospects - The policy is seen as a step towards deeper integration within the Greater Bay Area, potentially benefiting tourism and local businesses [5][6]. - There is optimism that resolving parking issues will prevent significant traffic congestion and enhance connectivity between Hong Kong and other cities in the Greater Bay Area [6].