报告行业投资评级 - Not mentioned 报告的核心观点 - Cost increase and the Double Eleven peak season drive the plastic price to rebound, but under the overall unchanged supply - demand pattern, it is expected that plastic will mainly show a weak and volatile trend in the near future [1] 根据相关目录分别进行总结 行情分析 - On November 14, new maintenance devices such as Zhongtianhechuang LDPE Line 1 were added, and the plastic operating rate dropped to around 87%, currently at a neutral level [1] - As of the week of November 14, the downstream operating rate of PE decreased by 0.36 percentage points to 44.49% compared with the previous week. The agricultural film is still in the peak season, with stable orders at a neutral level in recent years, and the raw material inventory of agricultural film remains stable. However, the orders of packaging film continue to decrease slightly, and the overall downstream operating rate of PE is still at a relatively low level in recent years [1] - Petrochemicals are normal in destocking, and the current petrochemical inventory is at a neutral level in recent years [1] - The US government shutdown is about to end, and the crude oil price rebounds after a decline. However, OPEC has adjusted the global oil supply from a shortage of 400,000 barrels per day in the third quarter of 2025 to a surplus of 500,000 barrels per day, and the pattern of crude oil supply surplus has become a consensus, so the increase in crude oil price is limited [1] - In terms of supply, ExxonMobil (Huizhou) LDPE with a new production capacity of 500,000 tons per year has started trial operation, and PetroChina Guangxi Petrochemical with a capacity of 800,000 tons per year has recently been put into production. The plastic operating rate has slightly decreased [1] - The agricultural film is in the peak season, and orders are gradually accumulating, but the peak season is not as good as expected. The price of agricultural film is stable, the demand in the north begins to decrease, the downstream operating rate drops, and the procurement willingness of downstream enterprises is insufficient [1] - Traders are cautious about the future market, generally reducing prices and actively shipping. There is no actual policy for anti - involution in the plastic industry yet. Anti - involution and the elimination of old devices to solve the problem of petrochemical over - capacity are still macro - policies that will affect the subsequent market [1] 期现行情 期货方面 - The plastic 2601 contract reduced positions and fluctuated upward, with a minimum price of 6,824 yuan/ton, a maximum price of 6,896 yuan/ton, and finally closed at 6,853 yuan/ton, below the 60 - day moving average, with a gain of 0.91%. The position volume decreased by 40,847 lots to 540,755 lots [2] 现货方面 - The PE spot market partially rose, with the price change ranging from - 0 to + 80 yuan/ton. LLDPE was reported at 6,790 - 7,270 yuan/ton, LDPE at 8,770 - 9,380 yuan/ton, and HDPE at 6,980 - 7,990 yuan/ton [3] 基本面跟踪 - On the supply side, on November 14, new maintenance devices such as Zhongtianhechuang LDPE Line 1 were added, and the plastic operating rate dropped to around 87%, currently at a neutral level [4] - In terms of demand, as of the week of November 14, the downstream operating rate of PE decreased by 0.36 percentage points to 44.49% compared with the previous week. The agricultural film is still in the peak season, with stable orders at a neutral level in recent years, and the raw material inventory of agricultural film remains stable. However, the orders of packaging film continue to decrease slightly, and the overall downstream operating rate of PE is still at a relatively low level in recent years [4] - On Friday, the early petrochemical inventory decreased by 25,000 tons to 640,000 tons compared with the previous week, 15,000 tons lower than the same period last year. Petrochemicals are normal in destocking, and the current petrochemical inventory is at a neutral level in recent years [4] - For the raw material crude oil, the Brent crude oil 01 contract rose to $64 per barrel. The price of Northeast Asian ethylene decreased by $5 per ton to $725 per ton compared with the previous week, and the price of Southeast Asian ethylene decreased by $5 per ton to $735 per ton compared with the previous week [4]

Market Overview - The plastic sector experienced a decline of 0.9% on November 14, with Guoen Co., Ltd. leading the drop [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3990.49, down 0.97%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13216.03, down 1.93% [1] Stock Performance - Notable gainers in the plastic sector included: - Ningbo Color Master with a closing price of 22.66, up 8.27% [1] - Runyang Technology at 42.87, up 7.61% [1] - Heshun Technology at 47.70, up 6.40% [1] - Major decliners included: - Guoen Co., Ltd. at 56.18, down 5.61% [2] - Dongcai Technology at 17.33, down 3.83% [2] - Zhongyan Technology at 38.89, down 3.02% [2] Capital Flow - The plastic sector saw a net outflow of 872 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors contributed a net inflow of 696 million yuan [2] - The overall capital flow in the plastic sector indicated a mixed sentiment among different investor types [2] Individual Stock Capital Flow - Key stocks with significant capital flow included: - Stik with a net inflow of 42.68 million yuan from institutional investors, but a net outflow from retail investors [3] - Zhonglun New Materials with a net inflow of 40.88 million yuan from institutional investors [3] - Anli Co., Ltd. with a net inflow of 24.21 million yuan from institutional investors [3]

Core Viewpoint - Plastic futures experienced a slight increase, with the main contract reaching a peak of 6896.00 yuan and closing at 6865.00 yuan, reflecting a rise of 1.09% [1] Group 1: Market Analysis - Shanghai Zhongqi Futures indicates that plastic futures are primarily in a narrow range consolidation, supported by positive domestic macro sentiment, but pressured by a decline in international crude oil prices [2] - The Brent crude oil main contract fell by 3.81%, impacting trading sentiment for plastic futures, leading to limited price increases in the afternoon [2] - Current supply of plastic is ample due to low maintenance capacity and increased imports from North America, while downstream demand from agricultural and packaging films remains stable [2] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - According to Ruida Futures, recent maintenance at major petrochemical plants has limited impact on production days, with a slight increase in PE production and capacity utilization [3] - The supply pressure is expected to remain high due to new production facilities coming online, while downstream demand for agricultural films is peaking and packaging film orders are weakening [3] - Ningzheng Futures anticipates that the L2601 contract will experience short-term fluctuations, with supply levels remaining high and production enterprise inventories increasing [4] Group 3: Price Pressure and Technical Analysis - Ruida Futures highlights that the L2601 contract should be monitored for pressure around the 6900 yuan mark, suggesting a cautious outlook on price increases due to limited supply-demand drivers [3] - Ningzheng Futures suggests that the L2601 contract will face resistance at the 6910 yuan level, recommending a wait-and-see approach or short-term short positions [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core View of the Report - PE shows a pattern of strong supply and weak demand. The high supply may continue to suppress the upside space of the polyethylene market, and it will mainly maintain a volatile consolidation pattern in the short - term. PP still has supply - demand contradictions, with the cost support strengthening slightly but still having a loosening expectation, and the market will continue to show a wide - range volatile trend. The supply surplus pressure may suppress the upward rebound space [3]. - The recommended strategy is to stay on the sidelines for single - side trading; for inter - period trading, conduct a sell - near - buy - far spread for L01 - 05 and PP01 - 05 at high prices; there is no recommendation for inter - variety trading [4]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market News and Important Data 3.1.1 Price and Basis - The closing price of the L main contract is 6,818 yuan/ton (+30), and the closing price of the PP main contract is 6,480 yuan/ton (+20). The LL spot price in North China is 6,800 yuan/ton (+0), the LL spot price in East China is 6,850 yuan/ton (+0), and the PP spot price in East China is 6,480 yuan/ton (+0). The LL basis in North China is - 18 yuan/ton (-30), the LL basis in East China is 32 yuan/ton (-30), and the PP basis in East China is 0 yuan/ton (-20) [1]. 3.1.2 Upstream Supply - The PE operating rate is 83.1% (+0.5%), and the PP operating rate is 79.6% (+1.8%) [1]. 3.1.3 Production Profit - The PE oil - based production profit is 288.4 yuan/ton (+187.2), the PP oil - based production profit is - 321.6 yuan/ton (+187.2), and the PDH - based PP production profit is - 219.6 yuan/ton (-113.8) [1]. 3.1.4 Import and Export - The LL import profit is - 29.4 yuan/ton (+43.1), the PP import profit is - 185.3 yuan/ton (-19.7), and the PP export profit is - 3.3 US dollars/ton (+2.5) [2]. 3.1.5 Downstream Demand - The PE downstream agricultural film operating rate is 50.0% (+0.0%), the PE downstream packaging film operating rate is 50.4% (-0.4%), the PP downstream woven plastic operating rate is 44.2% (-0.2%), and the PP downstream BOPP film operating rate is 62.6% (+0.2%) [2]. 3.2 Market Analysis 3.2.1 PE - Supply: The supply pressure is continuously high. Newly added maintenance of Zhenhai Refining & Chemical Line 1 and Zhongsha Petrochemical linear device, but the maintenance devices are restarting one after another, and the PE operating rate is continuously increasing. In addition, the newly added production capacity of Guangxi Petrochemical is gradually being released [3]. - Demand: The overall downstream operating rate of PE has decreased month - on - month. The increase in the agricultural film operating rate has slowed down, and the demand is expected to shrink after late November. The packaging film operating rate has decreased month - on - month, and the overall demand follow - up is still limited [3]. - Cost: The oil price has rebounded slightly after a decline, but the rebound space is limited due to supply - demand pressure, and the PE oil - based cost support is insufficient [3]. 3.2.2 PP - Supply: There is still an oversupply pattern. The 400,000 - ton new device of Guangxi Petrochemical has been put into trial production, some devices are under maintenance, and some temporary maintenance has alleviated the market supply pressure to a certain extent, but the improvement of the supply - side oversupply pattern is still limited [3]. - Demand: The overall downstream operating rate is gradually weakening, mainly replenishing inventory on a rigid basis at low prices. The demand pull of the e - commerce festival is less than that of the same period, and the demand support is relatively limited [3]. - Cost: The international oil price fluctuates widely, the external propane price rebounds slightly, and the PP cost support strengthens slightly but still has a loosening expectation [3].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Report's Core Views - The market conditions of L and PP plastics fluctuate daily, with prices showing various trends such as increases, decreases, and narrow - range movements. The supply and demand situation, along with factors like production capacity utilization, inventory, and external events, influence these price changes. [1][4] - Different factors, including economic indicators (e.g., PMI, GDP - related indices), industry - specific data (e.g., production ratios, import/export volumes), and geopolitical events, have both positive and negative impacts on the plastics market. [2][5] - The trading strategies for L and PP plastics vary daily, including suggestions like holding long or short positions, setting stop - loss points, and deciding on whether to engage in arbitrage or option trading. [2][5] Group 3: Summary by Directory Market Conditions - **L Plastic**: The L2601 contract price fluctuates, and the LLDPE market price shows different trends such as continuous weakening,涨跌互现, and partial increases or decreases. The trading atmosphere is often affected by factors like futures trends, with downstream procurement being cautious. [1][4] - **PP Plastic**: The PP2601 contract price also fluctuates. The PP market may be weak, narrow - moving, or show small increases or decreases. The relationship between futures and the spot market affects the price and trading volume, and downstream demand is generally cautious. [1][4] Important Information - **Industry Conferences and Policies**: Various industry - related conferences are held, summarizing achievements and looking forward to future plans. Policies are also introduced to promote the development of the petrochemical and chemical industries, such as the "Petrochemical and Chemical Industry Steady Growth Work Plan (2025 - 2026)". [1][50] - **Company Achievements**: Some companies achieve significant results, like PetroChina Huabei Petrochemical Company reaching a high production ratio of polypropylene special materials, and Guangxi Petrochemical's ethylene plant starting up successfully. [1][25] - **International and Geopolitical Events**: There are international events such as the potential military action of the US against Venezuela and the impact of US tariff policies on global enterprises. [59][62] Logical Analysis - **Supply - related Factors**: The production capacity utilization rates of PE and PP change over time, with some periods of increase and others of decrease. The net import volumes of polyethylene and polypropylene also show different trends, affecting the market. [2][55] - **Economic Indicators**: Economic indicators such as the PMI of different countries, the global economic policy uncertainty index, and various industry - specific indices have impacts on the plastics market, either positively or negatively. [2][23] Trading Strategies - **Single - side Trading**: Suggestions include holding long or short positions for L and PP main 01 contracts, and setting appropriate stop - loss points according to market conditions. [2][5] - **Arbitrage**: In most cases, it is recommended to wait and see, but there are also some specific suggestions for certain spreads. [2][5] - **Options**: Generally, it is recommended to wait and see, with a few exceptions where specific option contracts are given trading suggestions. [2][5]

Core Viewpoint - Trinseo is facing significant challenges in the global resin market, with a reported loss of $2.41 per share and negative free cash flow of $38 million in Q3. However, the company's recycled plastics and high-value specialty resins business is showing strong growth, driven by increasing demand and strategic adjustments to focus on higher-margin products [2][3][5]. Group 1: Financial Performance - In Q3, Trinseo reported a loss of $2.41 per share and a negative free cash flow of $38 million, reflecting pressure from a weak global resin market and increased trade tensions [2]. - The sales in the engineered materials segment remained flat year-over-year, with growth in acrylic resins for automotive and construction being offset by a decline in the medical sector [2]. Group 2: Growth Drivers - The company's recycled plastics and high-value specialty resins have emerged as bright spots, with sales of high-formula PMMA products increasing by over 10% year-over-year since the end of Q3 [3]. - The recycled content pilot projects for ABS, acrylics, and polycarbonate have sold out, indicating strong market demand, with sales of recycled content products up 12% year-over-year [3]. Group 3: Regulatory Impact - The new EU directive on end-of-life vehicles mandates that by 2031, new cars must contain 20% recycled plastics, with 15% sourced from end-of-life vehicles, creating new opportunities for the recycled plastics industry [4]. - This regulation is expected to drive automotive manufacturers to increase the use of recycled ABS and PMMA, opening new growth avenues for Trinseo in the European market [4]. Group 4: Strategic Adjustments - To address industry volatility, Trinseo is restructuring by exiting high-cost production, including shutting down a native MMA production facility in Italy and a polystyrene plant in Germany, aiming for $30 million in EBITDA savings by 2026 [5]. - The company is focusing resources on high-margin specialty resins and circular recycled materials to achieve sustainable long-term growth [5]. Group 5: Competitive Landscape - Trinseo faces significant competitive pressure from increased imports of acrylic and ABS resins from Asia, which have risen by 20%-25% in Europe and the U.S., further squeezing profit margins [6]. - The company anticipates adjusted EBITDA for Q4 to be between $30 million and $40 million, reflecting ongoing market challenges [6]. Group 6: Industry Trends - Trinseo's strategic shift towards recycled plastics and specialty resins reflects broader trends in the plastic industry moving towards a circular economy and high-performance materials [7]. - The company's actions demonstrate that recycled plastics are becoming a new growth engine rather than just an environmental symbol [7].

Market Overview - The plastic sector increased by 1.77% on November 13, with Cangzhou Mingzhu leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4029.5, up 0.73%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13476.52, up 1.78% [1] Top Gainers in Plastic Sector - Cangzhou Mingzhu (002108) closed at 5.26, up 10.04% with a trading volume of 1.4842 million shares and a transaction value of 767 million [1] - Foshan Plastics Technology (000973) closed at 12.40, up 10.03% with a trading volume of 1.6665 million shares and a transaction value of 2.041 billion [1] - Other notable gainers include Su Lai New Materials (605488) at 32.63 (+7.02%), Huitong Co., Ltd. (688219) at 13.50 (+6.55%), and Hangzhou High-tech (300478) at 27.40 (+5.63%) [1] Decliners in Plastic Sector - Xiangyuan New Materials (300980) saw a significant decline of 11.99%, closing at 27.75 with a trading volume of 273,000 shares and a transaction value of 831 million [2] - Other decliners include Guo'en Co., Ltd. (002768) down 2.27% and Jiangsu Boyun (301003) down 1.91% [2] Capital Flow Analysis - The plastic sector experienced a net inflow of 433 million from institutional investors, while retail investors saw a net outflow of 75.86 million [2][3] - Notable net inflows from institutional investors include Foshan Plastics Technology (4.041 billion) and Cangzhou Mingzhu (2.12 billion) [3] Summary of Capital Flow by Company - Foshan Plastics Technology had a net institutional inflow of 4.041 billion, with retail outflows of 1.92 billion [3] - Cangzhou Mingzhu reported a net institutional inflow of 2.12 billion, with retail outflows of 1.13 billion [3] - Other companies with significant net inflows include Fule New Materials (793.55 million) and Huitong Co., Ltd. (478.54 million) [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The global macro situation this week focuses on changes in US dollar liquidity. Although there is short - term tightness, it won't have a significant impact on major asset prices. There are two factors for improvement: marginal easing of monetary policy and normal release of funds in the TGA account when the US government resumes work [7]. - In October, China's export growth was weaker than expected, but there were more positive signs in inflation data, and consumer data may slightly exceed expectations [7]. - In November, the macro environment enters a vacuum period, and major assets may enter a short - term shock period. However, the overall allocation idea in the fourth quarter remains unchanged, and the macro environment is still favorable for risk assets. It is recommended to allocate major assets evenly in the fourth quarter, hold long positions in stock indices, non - ferrous metals (copper, lithium carbonate, aluminum, tin), and precious metals, and increase positions appropriately if there is a correction [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Macro Highlights - **Overseas Macro**: The short - term tightness of US dollar liquidity won't have a large impact on major asset prices. Monetary policy is marginally easing, and the release of TGA account funds after the US government resumes work can relieve the short - term pressure [7]. - **Domestic Macro**: October's export growth was weaker than expected, but there were positive signs in inflation data, and consumer data may slightly exceed expectations [7]. - **Asset Views**: In November, major assets may enter a shock period. The overall allocation idea in the fourth quarter remains unchanged, and it is recommended to evenly allocate major assets, hold long positions in stock indices, non - ferrous metals, and precious metals, and increase positions if there is a correction [7]. 3.2 Viewpoint Highlights 3.2.1 Financial Sector - **Stock Index Futures**: Catalyzed by technology events, the growth style is active. There is a risk of overcrowding in small - cap funds, and the short - term trend is expected to be a volatile upward [8]. - **Stock Index Options**: The overall trading volume has slightly declined, and the short - term trend is expected to be volatile [8]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The bond market continues to be weak. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by policy, fundamental repair, and tariff factors [8]. 3.2.2 Precious Metals - **Gold/Silver**: Due to the easing of geopolitical and economic and trade situations, precious metals are in a phased adjustment. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by the US fundamentals, Fed's monetary policy, and global equity market trends [8]. 3.2.3 Shipping - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The peak season in the third quarter has passed, and there is a lack of upward momentum. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, and attention should be paid to the rate of freight decline in September [8]. 3.2.4 Steel and Iron Ore - **Steel**: In the off - season, the fundamentals are under pressure, and the short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by the issuance of special bonds, steel exports, and iron - water production [8]. - **Iron Ore**: The short - term fundamentals are stable, and the short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by overseas mine production and shipment, domestic iron - water production, weather, port inventory, and policy [8]. 3.2.5 Black Building Materials - **Coke**: The game between coking and steel enterprises continues, and the short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by steel mill production, coking costs, and macro sentiment [8]. - **Coking Coal**: The market sentiment is weak, but the spot price is rising. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by steel mill production, coal mine safety inspections, and macro sentiment [8]. - **Silicon Iron**: The supply - demand driving force is limited, and it follows the valuation fluctuations of coal. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by raw material costs and steel procurement [8]. - **Manganese Silicon**: After the first - round steel procurement inquiry is announced, the price follows the decline of coking coal. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by cost prices and overseas quotes [8]. - **Glass**: Prices have been lowered in various regions, and downstream purchasing sentiment is weak. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by spot sales [8]. - **Soda Ash**: Supply exceeds demand, and cost - driven upward movement is limited. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by soda ash inventory [8]. - **Aluminum Oxide**: The fundamentals are still in an oversupply situation, and the price is under pressure. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by ore复产 and electrolytic aluminum复产 [8]. - **Aluminum**: The stock - futures linkage leads to an upward - volatile price. The short - term trend is expected to be a volatile upward, affected by macro risks, supply disruptions, and demand [8]. - **Zinc**: The export window is open, and the price is fluctuating at a high level. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by macro risks and zinc ore supply [8]. - **Lead**: Social inventory is slightly increasing, and the price is fluctuating. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by supply disruptions and battery exports [8]. - **Nickel**: Market sentiment is improving, and the price is fluctuating. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by macro and geopolitical changes, and Indonesian policies [8]. - **Stainless Steel**: Warehouse receipts are decreasing, and the price is fluctuating. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by Indonesian policies and demand growth [8]. - **Tin**: The inventory of Shanghai tin continues to decrease, and the price is fluctuating. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by the resumption of production in Wa State and demand improvement [8]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The supply in the southwest is rapidly decreasing, and the price is fluctuating. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by supply - side production cuts and photovoltaic installations [8]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The resumption of production expectation is fluctuating, and the price may fluctuate significantly. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by demand, supply disruptions, and technological breakthroughs [8]. 3.2.6 Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: There is a lack of short - term driving forces, and the price is expected to be volatile, affected by OPEC+ production policies and the Middle East geopolitical situation [10]. - **LPG**: Refinery output has decreased, and import costs are under pressure. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by cost factors such as crude oil and overseas propane [10]. - **Asphalt**: The spot price in Shandong has stabilized, and the futures price is expected to be volatile, affected by sanctions and supply disruptions [10]. - **High - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The futures price is volatile, and attention should be paid to the Russia - Ukraine conflict. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by geopolitics and crude oil prices [10]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The refined oil market is strong, and the price may be on a volatile upward trend, affected by crude oil prices [10]. - **Methanol**: High inventory suppresses the price, and overseas disturbances are not significant. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by the macro - energy situation and overseas developments [10]. - **Urea**: Export information boosts the spot market, and the futures price is expected to be volatile in the short term, affected by export quotas and coal prices [10]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The spot market is loose, and there is little hope of reversing the downward trend in the short term. The short - term trend is expected to be a volatile downward, affected by coal and oil prices, port inventory, and Sino - US trade friction [10]. - **PX**: The market sentiment is rational, and the processing fee is strongly supported by strong supply and demand. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by crude oil fluctuations and macro changes [10]. - **PTA**: The market sentiment is flat, and the basis is under pressure. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by crude oil fluctuations and macro changes [10]. - **Short - Fiber**: Consumers tend to buy on dips, and attention should be paid to the off - peak and peak season conversion. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by downstream yarn mill purchasing and peak - season demand [10]. - **Bottle Chips**: The market performance is flat, and it follows the cost passively. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by bottle - chip enterprise production cuts and new device commissioning [10]. - **Propylene**: Inventory needs time to be digested, and the price is expected to be on a volatile downward trend, affected by oil prices and the domestic macro situation [10]. - **PP**: Maintenance support is limited, and the price is expected to be on a volatile downward trend, affected by oil prices and domestic and overseas macro situations [10]. - **Plastic**: Downstream transactions have increased, but maintenance support is limited. The price is expected to be on a volatile downward trend, affected by oil prices and domestic and overseas macro situations [10]. - **Styrene**: There are still concerns about over - inventory, and the price is expected to be on a volatile downward trend, affected by oil prices, macro policies, and device operations [10]. - **PVC**: The weak reality suppresses the price, and it is expected to be volatile, affected by expectations, costs, and supply [10]. - **Caustic Soda**: With low valuation and weak expectations, the price is expected to be volatile, affected by market sentiment, production, and demand [10]. 3.2.7 Agriculture - **Oils and Fats**: Rapeseed oil is relatively strong, and attention should be paid to the effectiveness of upper - level technical resistance. The short - term trend is expected to be a volatile upward, affected by US soybean weather and Malaysian palm oil production and demand data [10]. - **Protein Meal**: US soybeans are testing the upper - level resistance, and it is recommended to hold reverse spreads on Dalian soybean meal. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by weather, domestic demand, macro factors, and Sino - US and Sino - Canadian trade wars [10]. - **Corn/Starch**: The market is in a short - term tight situation, and the price is expected to be volatile at a high level, affected by demand, macro factors, and weather [10]. - **Pigs**: Supply and demand are loose, and the price is weak. The short - term trend is expected to be a volatile downward, affected by breeding sentiment, epidemics, and policies [10]. - **Natural Rubber**: With the approaching expiration of the November contract, there may be a pulse - like upward movement. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by production - area weather, raw material prices, and macro changes [10]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by crude oil fluctuations [10]. - **Cotton**: The price has slightly declined, and the short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by demand and inventory [10]. - **Sugar**: The price is fluctuating within a narrow range, and the short - term trend is expected to be a volatile downward, affected by imports and Brazilian production [10]. - **Pulp**: The market is dominated by funds, and the long - position advantage remains. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, affected by macro - economic changes and US dollar - denominated quotes [10]. - **Double - Glued Paper**: In the tendering peak season, the price is expected to stabilize in November and be volatile, affected by production and sales, education policies, and paper - mill operations [10]. - **Logs**: In the de - inventory cycle, the price is expected to be volatile, affected by special port fees, shipment volume, and dispatch volume [10].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoint - The plastic industry is expected to experience weak and volatile trends in the near future due to factors such as increased supply, decreased downstream demand, and uncertain cost - related factors [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - On November 12, the restart of maintenance devices at Hengli Petrochemical led to an increase in the plastic operating rate to about 90.5%, which is at a moderately high level. The downstream PE operating rate decreased by 0.52 percentage points to 44.85%. Although the agricultural film is in the peak season with increasing orders, the packaging film orders decreased slightly. The overall downstream operating rate is at a relatively low level in recent years. The petrochemical inventory is moderately high. The crude oil price fluctuated within a narrow range. New production capacities were put into operation, and downstream purchasing willingness was low. The industry lacks effective anti - involution policies [1] Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: The plastic 2601 contract fluctuated with increased positions, closing at 6788 yuan/ton, down 0.09% from the previous day, and the position increased by 2586 lots to 586919 lots [2] - Spot: Most prices in the PE spot market declined, with price changes ranging from - 150 to + 50 yuan/ton. LLDPE was reported at 6740 - 7270 yuan/ton, LDPE at 8770 - 9430 yuan/ton, and HDPE at 6900 - 8090 yuan/ton [3] Fundamental Tracking - Supply: On November 11, the maintenance devices changed little, and the plastic operating rate remained at about 88%, at a moderate level [4] - Demand: As of the week of November 7, the downstream PE operating rate decreased by 0.52 percentage points to 44.85%. The agricultural film was in the peak season with stable raw material inventory, but the packaging film orders decreased slightly. The overall downstream operating rate was at a relatively low level in recent years [4] - Inventory: The petrochemical early - morning inventory on Wednesday decreased by 20,000 tons to 690,000 tons, 10,000 tons higher than the same period last year, and is at a moderately high level in recent years [4] - Raw Materials: The Brent crude oil 01 contract fluctuated around 64 US dollars/barrel. The Northeast Asian ethylene price remained flat at 730 US dollars/ton, and the Southeast Asian ethylene price remained flat at 740 US dollars/ton [4]

Market Overview - The plastic sector experienced a decline of 2.28% on November 12, with Shangwei New Materials leading the drop [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4000.14, down 0.07%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13240.62, down 0.36% [1] Stock Performance - Notable gainers in the plastic sector included: - Zhonglun New Materials (301565) with a closing price of 29.49, up 10.91% and a trading volume of 213,200 shares, totaling 597 million yuan [1] - Ping An Electric (001359) closed at 50.17, up 6.05% with a trading volume of 44,000 shares, totaling 218 million yuan [1] - Pulit (002324) closed at 14.05, up 5.80% with a trading volume of 384,900 shares, totaling 528 million yuan [1] - Shangwei New Materials (688585) was the largest loser, closing at 115.99, down 10.91% with a trading volume of 136,700 shares, totaling 1.646 billion yuan [2] - Other significant decliners included: - Bofei Electric (001255) down 6.87% [2] - Daon Shares (002838) down 5.20% [2] Capital Flow - The plastic sector saw a net outflow of 873 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors contributed a net inflow of 609 million yuan [2] - The following stocks had notable capital flows: - Daon Shares (002768) had a net inflow of 41.36 million yuan from institutional investors [3] - Xiangyuan New Materials (300980) saw a net inflow of 39.01 million yuan from institutional investors [3] - Zhonglun New Materials (301565) had a net inflow of 32.63 million yuan from institutional investors [3]