Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market trends of L plastic and PP polypropylene are affected by multiple factors including production, inventory, international oil prices, geopolitical situations, and economic indices [1][2][5] Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Market Situation - L plastic: The price trends of L plastic vary daily, with some days showing increases and others showing decreases or sideways movements The trading volume and downstream purchasing attitudes also change accordingly [1][5][8] - PP polypropylene: Similar to L plastic, the price of PP polypropylene fluctuates, and the market sentiment is influenced by factors like geopolitical events and production cost changes [1][5][12] Important Information - Logistics industry: The ratio of China's total social logistics cost to GDP dropped to 13.9% in 2025, and the logistics industry is undergoing a digital and intelligent transformation [1] - Chemical industry: In 2026, the total production capacity of the domestic polyethylene market will exceed 4500 tons, and the industry will face structural adjustments The chemical M&A market is expected to recover slightly in 2026 [8][16] - International events: The military conflict between the US, Israel, and Iran has affected the international oil price and the PP market [12][16][20] Logical Analysis - Macroeconomic indicators: Various economic indicators such as the global stock market capitalization, the China Logistics Prosperity Index, the US economic policy uncertainty index, and the dollar index have different impacts on commodities and the chemical industry [2][6][9] - Production and inventory: The production and inventory levels of LLDPE and PP, including daily output, weekly and monthly maintenance losses, and port and warehouse inventories, also affect the market trends [2][6][9] Trading Strategies - Unilateral trading: For most days, the report suggests holding long positions for the L 2605 contract and the PP 2605 contract, with appropriate stop - loss levels set [2][7][9] - Arbitrage trading: The report often suggests holding short positions for the SPC L2605&PP2605 contract, with stop - loss levels adjusted according to market conditions [2][7][9] - Options trading: The report generally advises to wait and see [2][7][9]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of the recent Middle East conflict on the plastic market in Dongguan, highlighting a significant price surge in plastic raw materials due to supply chain disruptions and increased demand for stockpiling [1][3][12]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Dongguan Zhangmutou is a crucial plastic trading hub in South China, with an annual transaction scale nearing 100 billion yuan, accounting for about 10% of the national market [1][10]. - The conflict in the Middle East has led to a surge in plastic prices, with some raw materials like ABS and PC experiencing price increases of over 40% since February 28 [3][8][12]. - The market has seen a dramatic increase in online activity, with platforms like Pulas Net experiencing a surge in traffic and even temporary outages due to high demand [3][12]. Group 2: Supply Chain and Logistics - The logistics situation in Zhangmutou has become critical, with reports of severe traffic congestion around the plastic market, reminiscent of a "Spring Festival" rush for plastic traders [4][6]. - Warehousing capacity is under strain, with nearly 90,000 square meters of storage nearing full capacity, leading to increased pressure on logistics and supply chains [6][12]. Group 3: Price Trends and Predictions - Major chemical companies have announced price hikes, with Wanhua Chemical increasing prices of PA12 by 5%-10% and BASF raising prices of various plastic additives by up to 20% [9][12]. - The consensus among industry insiders is that if the Middle East conflict persists, plastic prices will continue to rise, with potential for further volatility in the market [6][12]. Group 4: Downstream Impact - Downstream industries, particularly those producing modified materials, are facing challenges due to rising raw material costs, which have increased by approximately 30% [15][16]. - Companies are adopting various strategies to cope with the price surge, including locking in prices with suppliers and adjusting production strategies to manage costs [16][18].

Core Viewpoint - The ongoing geopolitical tensions, particularly the crisis in the Strait of Hormuz, are significantly impacting the supply chain for high-performance engineering plastics, especially Polyphenylene Sulfide (PPS), which is crucial for industries like automotive, electronics, and home appliances [2][4]. Group 1: Impact of the Crisis on PPS Supply Chain - The crisis has led to fluctuations in international oil prices, causing a "butterfly effect" that increases the costs of raw materials essential for PPS production, thereby raising the prices of PPS products [5]. - Japan's dominance in the PPS market poses a risk due to its heavy reliance on Middle Eastern oil imports, with approximately 90% of its oil coming from this region, making it vulnerable to supply disruptions [7][12]. - The logistics and delivery chains for PPS are severely affected, as Japanese suppliers are key to the global automotive and electronics supply chains, leading to potential production halts for domestic manufacturers relying on just-in-time (JIT) inventory systems [9][10]. Group 2: Domestic PPS Alternatives - The crisis has catalyzed the development of domestic PPS alternatives, as Chinese manufacturers have begun to establish a complete PPS modification industry chain, reducing reliance on imports [11]. - China's energy supply is diversified, with alternative sources such as land pipelines from Russia and Central Asia, as well as coal-to-chemicals processes, providing a buffer against oil supply disruptions [11][12]. - Domestic PPS manufacturers are increasingly capable of meeting the high-performance requirements of industries such as electric vehicles and air filtration, with several companies emerging as viable alternatives to Japanese suppliers [13][14]. Group 3: Key Domestic Players - Jinfa Technology is noted for its large-scale production capabilities in general-purpose PPS, successfully supplying major domestic manufacturers during import disruptions [14]. - Water Holdings has made significant strides in the high-frequency communication sector with its low-dielectric PPS materials, breaking the foreign monopoly in this niche market [15]. - KCC Corporation has adopted a customized approach to meet specific application needs, successfully replacing Japanese materials in demanding environments such as electric vehicle thermal management systems [16][20]. Group 4: Selection Criteria for PPS Materials - For general-purpose and structural components, manufacturers should prioritize suppliers with robust supply capabilities, such as Jinfa Technology, focusing on their production capacity and historical delivery reliability [19]. - In high-performance applications, companies like Water Holdings should be considered for their specialized products that meet stringent technical requirements [19]. - For complex and precision components, the focus should be on suppliers like KCC Corporation that offer tailored solutions and have strong collaborative development capabilities [20].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Last month, PVC prices fell and then rebounded. After significant inventory accumulation during the Spring Festival, the market traded the reality of large inventory accumulation around the Spring Festival. At the end of February, as the geopolitical dispute in Iran intensified, PVC prices rebounded sharply following the cost and production - reduction logic [11]. - Fundamentally, the comprehensive profit of enterprises has rebounded to a neutral level. Short - term production is at a historical high, but there are expectations of passive production cuts in ethylene - based production and seasonal maintenance. It is expected that the operating rate will gradually decline in March. On the demand side, domestic demand is gradually recovering from the off - season, but overall domestic demand is under pressure. In terms of exports, although the export tax - rebate cancellation is approaching, there are expectations of production cuts overseas due to raw material shortages, and domestic production may be needed to fill the gap [11]. - In general, the short - term fundamentals are weak, but the narrative logic is gradually shifting to expectations. On the one hand, the geopolitical situation in Iran may drive up costs; on the other hand, the expectation of production cuts in Asia due to the shortage of Middle - East crude oil may offset the negative impact of the export tax - rebate cancellation. Therefore, in the short term, as long as the Iranian issue remains unresolved, the trend will be upward [11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Cost and Profit**: The price of Wuhai calcium carbide is reported at 2,100 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 450 yuan/ton; the price of Shandong calcium carbide is reported at 2,705 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 225 yuan/ton; the price of medium - grade semi - coke in Shaanxi is 735 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 50 yuan/ton. In terms of profit, the comprehensive integrated profit of chlor - alkali has rebounded significantly after falling to a historical low, and the profit of ethylene - based production has compressed after recovery. The overall valuation is neutral [11]. - **Supply**: The PVC capacity utilization rate is 81.1%, a month - on - month increase of 1.9%. Among them, the utilization rate of calcium carbide - based production is 80.7%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.2%; the utilization rate of ethylene - based production is 82.2%, a month - on - month increase of 6.7%. The maintenance volume last month was still small, the average capacity utilization rate remained stable, and the supply pressure was still high. In March, due to the intensification of geopolitical issues, there are expectations that ethylene - based production will reduce its load following the reduction of cracking load [11]. - **Demand**: In terms of exports, the export volume rebounded slightly in December. The export tax - rebate policy is planned to be cancelled on April 1st, and the market has entered a short - term phase of rushing to export, with an increase in export volume. With the intensification of the Middle - East geopolitical situation, there are expectations of increased exports due to the overseas shortage of crude oil. The operating rates of the three major downstream industries are gradually recovering from the Spring Festival off - season. The load of the pipe industry is 33%, unchanged from the previous month; the load of the film industry is 47.1%, a month - on - month decrease of 15%; the load of the profile industry is 27.4%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.7%. The overall downstream load is 35.8%, a month - on - month decrease of 5.6%. The overall downstream operating rate is gradually rising and recovering from the off - season [11]. - **Inventory**: The in - factory inventory is 45.8 tons, a month - on - month increase of 17.1 tons; the social inventory is 140.4 tons, a month - on - month increase of 17.7 tons; the overall inventory is 186.2 tons, a month - on - month increase of 34.8 tons; the warehouse receipts have decreased seasonally. In March, as the downstream load gradually increases, there are expectations of production reduction due to raw material shortages and the arrival of the maintenance season on the supply side, and the load is expected to decline. Although the export tax - rebate will be cancelled in April overseas, there are also expectations of production cuts overseas, and there may be a difference in export volume expectations. Therefore, inventory may gradually start to decrease in March [11]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market No specific text - based summary content provided, only some charts about PVC term structure, spot basis, price, trading volume, and open interest are presented [15][20][25][27]. 3.3 Profit and Inventory No specific text - based summary content provided, only some charts about PVC inventory (including in - factory, social, and total inventory) and profit (including integrated profit of chlor - alkali, calcium carbide - based profit, ethylene - based profit, and calcium carbide profit) are presented [32][35][40]. 3.4 Cost Side - Calcium carbide prices have fallen significantly. The price of Wuhai calcium carbide and Shandong calcium carbide has decreased month - on - month. Other cost - related factors such as semi - coke, liquid chlorine, liquid caustic soda, and ethylene prices are also presented in the charts [46][47][53]. 3.5 Supply Side - In 2025, a total of 250 tons of PVC production capacity was put into operation, including new production capacity from enterprises such as Xinpu Chemical, Jintai Chemical, and Wanhua Chemical [61]. - The capacity utilization rate of PVC is 81.1%, with the calcium carbide - based production utilization rate at 80.7% and the ethylene - based production utilization rate at 82.2%. There are expectations of production reduction in ethylene - based production in March due to geopolitical issues [11]. 3.6 Demand Side - The three major downstream industries of PVC are gradually recovering from the off - season. The operating rates of the pipe, film, and profile industries are gradually increasing, but overall, the downstream operating rate is still lower than the previous month [11]. - In terms of exports, the export volume rebounded slightly in December, and there are expectations of increased exports due to the overseas shortage of crude oil. However, the export tax - rebate policy is planned to be cancelled on April 1st [11].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Due to the sudden geopolitical conflict in the Middle East over the weekend, the supply of international crude oil and natural gas has become tight, driving up energy prices. With the increase in ethylene costs and concerns about supply shortages, the bullish sentiment in the PVC market has been rising. The cost of the ethylene method has increased by more than 380 yuan/ton this week, and the spot market price has risen steadily. The price of calcium carbide-based Type 5 PVC in East China has reached 4,800 - 5,000 yuan/ton [3]. - Next week, the scale of maintenance of PVC production enterprises will change little. Domestic demand is expected to recover, and foreign trade exports are waiting for April quotes. The supply - demand fundamentals will remain in a stalemate. Due to geopolitical impacts, the ethylene method is expected to rise. It is predicted that the PVC spot market will be weakly stalemated next week and still be affected by geopolitical conflict sentiment. There is a need to be vigilant about the pressure on the ethylene market caused by energy supply disruptions, which may lead to a reduction in the global ethylene - based supply. Overall, the ex - warehouse cash price of calcium carbide - based Type 5 PVC in East China is initially expected to be in the range of 4,800 - 5,100 yuan/ton [3]. - The trading strategy is to go long at low prices but not to chase the rise for single - side trading; to wait and see for arbitrage; and to wait and see for over - the - counter trading [3]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategy - The report provides a trading strategy of going long at low prices but not chasing the rise for single - side trading, waiting and seeing for arbitrage, and waiting and seeing for over - the - counter trading [3]. Fundamental Data - **Core Data Changes** - PVC production enterprise output is 49.61 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 1.28% (0.64 tons) and a year - on - year increase of 5.97% (2.80 tons). The PVC industry inventory sample is 191.67 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 0.14% and a year - on - year increase of 36.37%. The inventory of all sample production enterprises is 51.29 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 8.59% and a year - on - year increase of 1.96%. The PVC social inventory is 140.38 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 3.76% and a year - on - year increase of 62.29% [4]. - This week, Jiyuan Fangsheng and Yantai Wanhua had maintenance, and some enterprises adjusted their loads. Hangjin stopped production in March. The loss of production due to maintenance and production reduction this week is 11.51 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 5.90% and a year - on - year increase of 3.91%. The production capacity of maintenance enterprises in March is 3.14 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 50.24% and a year - on - year decrease of 26.12% [4]. - The average weekly trading volume in the PVC market this week is 1.47 tons, with an increase of 0.7 tons compared to before the holiday and a decrease of 0.3 tons compared to the same period last year [4]. - The operating rate of downstream product enterprises this week is 35.84%, with a month - on - month increase of 18.73% and a year - on - year decrease of 10.61%. The profile operating rate is 27.39%, with a month - on - month increase of 16.09% and a year - on - year decrease of 12.46%. The pipe operating rate is 33%, with a month - on - month increase of 19.40% and a year - on - year decrease of 13.88% [4]. - The available days of raw material inventory of downstream pipe and profile product enterprises this period have increased by 1.4 days to 14 days. Upstream and the market have delivered goods to the terminal after the holiday, and product enterprises have made appropriate low - price purchases [4]. - The sample export order volume of PVC production enterprises this week has increased by 27.6% to 2.45 tons compared to the previous period, with a year - on - year decrease of 17.7%. The delivery volume has decreased by 22% to 4.2 tons (enterprises have concentrated on delivering exports this week), and the undelivered volume has decreased by 7.71% to 20.96 tons, with a year - on - year increase of 60.79%. Affected by shipping space, rising freight rates, and the Middle East situation, the March delivery price of PVC has stabilized, with the FOB price of calcium carbide - based PVC at 635 - 640 US dollars/ton and that of ethylene - based PVC at 655 - 670 US dollars/ton [4]. - **PVC Supply Analysis** - **Enterprise Output by Process**: Not provided in the given content - **Enterprise Output by Region**: Not provided in the given content - **Enterprise Pre - sales by Process**: Not provided in the given content - **Enterprise Capacity Utilization by Process**: Not provided in the given content - **Raw Material Source Weekly Operating Data**: Not provided in the given content - **Maintenance Enterprise Statistics**: Many enterprises have maintenance plans in March and April, including Shandong Dongyue, Wuhai Chemical, etc. Some are cost - based maintenance, and some are regular maintenance. There are also foreign enterprises with maintenance plans, such as Japan's Taiyo Ethylene, Formosa Plastics USA, etc. [19]. - **Production Enterprise Production Increase Plan**: Many enterprises have production increase plans, including Zhejiang Jiajiaxingcheng New Materials, Andao in Guangxi, etc. The production increase plans involve both calcium carbide - based and ethylene - based PVC, and the planned production times vary [20]. - **PVC Cost Analysis** - **Raw Material Cost Comparison over the Years**: Not provided in the given content - **Raw Material Gross Margin Comparison over the Years**: Not provided in the given content - **PVC Supply Analysis - Production Enterprise Inventory by Process/Region**: Not provided in the given content - **PVC Demand Analysis - Product Enterprise Operating Rate and Inventory** - The operating rate of downstream product enterprises this week is 35.84%, with a month - on - month increase of 18.73% and a year - on - year decrease of 10.61%. The profile operating rate is 27.39%, with a month - on - month increase of 16.09% and a year - on - year decrease of 12.46%. The pipe operating rate is 33%, with a month - on - month increase of 19.40% and a year - on - year decrease of 13.88% [4]. - The available days of raw material inventory of downstream pipe and profile product enterprises this period have increased by 1.4 days to 14 days [4].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2) Core View - The domestic supply - demand pattern of plastics has improved. With expectations of the chemical industry counter - involution and the situation in the Middle East boosting the energy - chemical sector, plastics are expected to show a moderately strong oscillation. Attention should be paid to the post - holiday resumption of production progress of downstream industries [1]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs [Market Analysis] - On March 6, new maintenance devices such as Fujian United's full - density line 1 were added, and the plastic operating rate dropped to around 90%, which is at a moderately high level. The new capacities of BASF (Guangdong) FDPE (500,000 tons/year) and Yulong Petrochemical LDPE/EVA (300,000 tons/year) were put into production in January 2026, and there are no new capacity plans for the first quarter. The downstream resumption of production is slow, and the procurement intention is weak. The prices of agricultural films in North and East China have risen, while those in South China are stable [1]. - The conflict between the US, Israel and Iran has led to blocked navigation in the Strait of Hormuz, causing a sharp increase in crude oil prices, which significantly boosts plastics. Iran's PE imports account for about 8% of China's total imports and about 3% of domestic production, while the entire Middle East region's imports account for about 20% of domestic production [1]. [Futures and Spot Market Quotes] - Futures: The 2605 plastic futures contract increased in positions and oscillated upward, with a minimum price of 7,360 yuan/ton, a maximum price of 7,695 yuan/ton, and a final closing price of 7,691 yuan/ton, above the 60 - day moving average, with a gain of 3.88%. The open interest increased by 18,481 lots to 409,024 lots [2]. - Spot: Most PE spot markets rose, with price changes ranging from +0 to +400 yuan/ton. LLDPE was quoted at 7,470 - 8,170 yuan/ton, LDPE at 9,980 - 10,780 yuan/ton, and HDPE at 7,600 - 9,000 yuan/ton [3]. [Fundamental Tracking] - Supply: On March 6, new maintenance devices were added, and the plastic operating rate dropped to around 90%, which is at a moderately high level [1][4]. - Demand: As of the week of March 6, the PE downstream operating rate increased by 10.4 percentage points to 28.62% week - on - week. After the Spring Festival, downstream industries gradually resumed production but have not returned to pre - holiday levels, showing seasonal changes [1][4]. - Inventory: During the Spring Festival, petrochemical inventory increased by 480,000 tons to 940,000 tons. After the Spring Festival, inventory has been decreasing. As of Friday, petrochemical early - morning inventory decreased by 5,000 tons to 820,000 tons, 60,000 tons lower than the same period of last lunar year, and is currently at a neutral level compared to recent years [1][4]. - Raw Materials: The Brent crude oil 05 contract rose above $85 per barrel. The price of Northeast Asian ethylene increased by $50 per ton to $850 per ton week - on - week, and the price of Southeast Asian ethylene increased by $50 per ton to $820 per ton week - on - week [4].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1][11][12] Core Views - The demand for AI is exceeding expectations, and the electronic resin market is expected to see significant growth. The company is the largest domestic supplier of electronic chemical materials in fields such as high-performance copper-clad laminates (CCL), PCB inks, and semiconductor packaging plastics. The sales of advanced electronic materials are expected to benefit from the rising demand in downstream industries [4][5] - The company has a robust production capacity, including 100 tons/year of super hydrocarbon resin and 1300-1800 tons/year of polyphenylene ether capacity as of Q3 2025. New projects are underway, including 2000 tons/year of PPO/OPE resin and 1500 tons/year of hydrocarbon resin, expected to be operational by Q3 2026 [4][5] Financial Projections - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are estimated at 112.92 billion, 125.76 billion, and 144.52 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding net profits of 11.08 billion, 14.57 billion, and 19.41 billion yuan. The projected growth rates for revenue are 13%, 11%, and 15%, while net profit growth rates are 28%, 31%, and 33% [10][11] - The company is expected to maintain a strong return on equity (ROE) of 11% in 2025, increasing to 16% by 2027. The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to decrease from 26.5 in 2025 to 15.12 in 2027, indicating a favorable valuation trend [10][11]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints of the Report - The downstream start - up of polyolefins has rebounded, and attention should be paid to the dynamic of supply device load reduction. The geopolitical conflict in the Middle East has led to an increase in international oil prices and propane prices, strengthening cost support and boosting polyolefin prices. In the short term, the expectation of cost increase and supply reduction may continue to drive up prices. For PE, although the planned maintenance in March - April is less and the start - up is still at a high level, the downstream demand has recovered after the festival, and the inventory of upstream petrochemicals has started to decline. For PP, the impact on overseas supply is small, mainly driven by cost increase and supply reduction. The loss of PDH profit may lead to the continuation of the PDH maintenance peak. The strategy is to cautiously go long and hedge LLDPE and PP at low prices [1][3][4] Summary by Directory 1. Market News and Important Data - **Price and Basis**: The closing price of the L main contract is 7393 yuan/ton (+38), the closing price of the PP main contract is 7458 yuan/ton (-48), the LL North China spot price is 7220 yuan/ton (+70), the LL East China spot price is 7300 yuan/ton (+100), the PP East China spot price is 7450 yuan/ton (+150), the LL North China basis is -173 yuan/ton (+32), the LL East China basis is -93 yuan/ton (+62), and the PP East China basis is -8 yuan/ton (+198) [1] - **Upstream Supply**: The PE start - up rate is 86.9% (-1.0%), and the PP start - up rate is 74.4% (-1.1%) [1] - **Production Profit**: The PE oil - based production profit is -605.0 yuan/ton (+68.0), the PP oil - based production profit is -745.0 yuan/ton (+68.0), and the PDH - based PP production profit is -1885.4 yuan/ton (-32.5) [1] - **Import and Export**: The LL import profit is -279.0 yuan/ton (-558.6), the PP import profit is -553.6 yuan/ton (-183.4), and the PP export profit is -67.5 US dollars/ton (+40.2) [1] - **Downstream Demand**: The PE downstream agricultural film start - up rate is 18.9% (+8.8%), the PE downstream packaging film start - up rate is 40.3% (+15.6%), the PP downstream plastic weaving start - up rate is 37.7% (+8.4%), and the PP downstream BOPP film start - up rate is 59.6% (+12.0%) [2] 2. Market Analysis - **Impact of Geopolitical Conflict**: The appearance of empty oil tankers transporting crude oil in the Strait of Hormuz has affected the chemical industry. Although the conflict between the US and Iran has not eased, the supply of raw materials such as crude oil, methanol, and propane remains uncertain. Domestic olefin enterprises may reduce their loads defensively, and some production lines have already taken actions [3] - **PE Market**: In the short term, the cost increase and supply reduction expectation may push up the plastic price. The planned maintenance in March - April is less, and the start - up is still at a high level. The downstream demand has recovered after the festival, and the inventory of upstream petrochemicals has started to decline [3] - **PP Market**: The impact on overseas supply is small, mainly driven by cost increase and supply reduction. The loss of PDH profit may lead to the continuation of the PDH maintenance peak. The downstream demand has improved, and the spot price has followed, with the basis strengthening [4] 3. Strategy - **Unilateral**: Cautiously go long and hedge LLDPE and PP at low prices - **Inter - period**: None - **Inter - variety**: None [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the industry investment rating in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall supply pressure of PVC is strong, and the domestic demand recovery is sluggish. The PVC2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 4960 - 5072. The current demand may remain weak, and the overall inventory is at a high level. Continued attention should be paid to macro - policies and export dynamics [8][11] - The positive factors are supply resumption, cost support from calcium carbide and ethylene, and export benefits. The negative factors are the rebound of overall supply pressure, high inventory and slow consumption, and weak domestic and foreign demand [10] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Viewpoints - **Supply - side**: In January 2026, PVC production was 2148630 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.53%. The weekly capacity utilization rate of sample enterprises was 82.08%, a month - on - month increase of 0.00 percentage points. The production of ethylene - based enterprises was 15096 tons, and that of calcium carbide - based enterprises was 35157 tons. The supply pressure increased this week, and the expected maintenance is expected to decrease next week, with a slight increase in scheduled production [8] - **Demand - side**: The overall downstream operating rate was 17.11%, a month - on - month increase of 7.11 percentage points, lower than the historical average. The operating rates of profiles, pipes, films, and paste resin were 11.3%, 13.6%, 26.43%, and 79.51% respectively. Except for the paste resin operating rate being higher than the historical average, the others were lower. Shipping costs are expected to fall, and domestic PVC export prices are not competitive. Current demand may remain weak [8] - **Cost - side**: The profit of calcium carbide method was - 438.73 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease in losses of 26.00%, lower than the historical average. The profit of ethylene method was 11.19 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease in profit of 90.00%, lower than the historical average. The double - ton price difference was 2386.31 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase in profit of 6.70%, lower than the historical average. Scheduled production may be under pressure [8] - **Basis**: On March 5th, the price of East China SG - 5 was 4980 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 05 contract was - 36 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures [8] - **Inventory**: The in - factory inventory was 503951 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.19%. The calcium carbide - based factory inventory was 381551 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.62%. The ethylene - based factory inventory was 122400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.15%. The social inventory was 615620 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.10%. The inventory days of production enterprises in stock were 8.4 days, a month - on - month increase of 61.53% [8] - **Market**: MA20 is upward, and the price of the 05 contract closed above MA20 [8] - **Main positions**: The main positions are net short, and the short positions increased [8] 3.2 PVC Market Overview - The report presents yesterday's PVC market overview, including various indicators such as spot prices, inter - month spreads, and inventory data, and their changes compared with the previous values. For example, the price of East China SG - 5 increased by 0.53% compared with the previous value, and the inventory of some enterprises also had corresponding changes [13] 3.3 PVC Futures Market - Basis Trend - The report shows the historical trend chart of PVC basis, including the basis, East China market price, and main contract closing price from 2022 to 2026 [16] 3.4 PVC Futures Market - Spread Analysis - Main Contract Spread - The report presents the historical spread trends of 1 - 9 and 5 - 9 spreads of PVC futures from 2024 to 2025 [22] 3.5 PVC Fundamental - Calcium Carbide Method - Related Factors - **Lancoke**: The report shows the price, cost - profit, operating rate, inventory, and daily output trends of Lancoke from 2016 to 2026 [25] - **Calcium carbide**: It shows the price, cost - profit, operating rate, maintenance loss, and production trends of calcium carbide from 2018 to 2026 [28] - **Liquid chlorine and raw salt**: It presents the price, production trends of liquid chlorine from 2020 to 2026, and the price and monthly production trends of raw salt from 2019 to 2026 [30] - **Caustic soda**: It shows the price, cost - profit, operating rate, weekly production, maintenance volume, apparent consumption, inventory, and flake caustic soda inventory trends of 32% caustic soda in Shandong from 2019 to 2026, as well as the cost - profit and double - ton price difference trends of Shandong chlor - alkali [32][35] 3.6 PVC Fundamental - PVC Supply Trend - It presents the weekly capacity utilization rates of calcium carbide - based and ethylene - based PVC, the profit trends of calcium carbide - based and ethylene - based PVC, the daily production, weekly maintenance volume, weekly capacity utilization rate, and weekly production of sample enterprises of PVC from 2018 to 2026 [37][39] 3.7 PVC Fundamental - Demand Trend - **Sales and pre - sales**: It shows the daily sales volume of PVC traders, weekly pre - sales volume, weekly production - sales rate, and apparent consumption trends of PVC from 2019 to 2026 [41][44] - **Downstream operating rates**: It presents the average operating rate of PVC downstream, as well as the operating rate trends of PVC profiles, pipes, films, and paste resin from 2022 to 2026 [44][46] - **Paste resin**: It shows the profit, monthly production, cost, and apparent consumption trends of paste resin from 2019 to 2026 [48][49][50] - **Real estate and infrastructure**: It presents the real estate investment completion amount, cumulative housing construction area, new housing construction area, commercial housing sales area, housing completion area, social financing scale increment, M2 increment, local government new special bonds, and infrastructure investment (excluding electricity) year - on - year trends from 2018 to 2026 [52][55] 3.8 PVC Fundamental - Inventory - It shows the trends of exchange warehouse receipts, calcium carbide - based factory inventory, ethylene - based factory inventory, social inventory, and production enterprise inventory days from 2019 to 2026 [57] 3.9 PVC Fundamental - Ethylene Method - It presents the import volume trends of vinyl chloride and dichloroethane from 2020 to 2025, the export volume trend of PVC from 2018 to 2026, and the price difference trends of ethylene - based FOB (Tianjin - Taiwan) and vinyl chloride import (Jiangsu - Far East CIF) from 2020 to 2026 [59] 3.10 PVC Fundamental - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - It shows the monthly supply - demand situation of PVC from 2024 to 2026, including export, demand, social inventory, factory inventory, production, import, and supply - demand difference [62]

PP：C3 原料持续偏强，PDH 装置减量延续 周富强 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0023304 zhoufuqiang@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 聚烯烃基本面数据 2026 年 3 月 6 日 商 品 研 LLDPE：裂解供应收缩预期持续，短期高度关 注地缘 | 期 货 | | L2605 | | | PP2605 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨跌 | 昨日成交 | 持仓变动 | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨跌 | 昨日成交 | 持仓变动 | | | 7393 | 0.52% | 1597593 | 8846 | 7458 | -0.64% | 1802218 | 11650 | | | 昨日价差 | | 前日价差 | | 昨日价差 | | 前日价差 | | | 05合约基差 | 5 7 | | -105 | | 4 2 | | -86 | | | 05-09合约价差 | 152 | | 8 5 | | 277 | | 280 | | | 现货价格 | 昨日价格 | （元/吨） | 前日 ...