- The report discusses the construction of a "ROIC Model" for interest rate predictions. The model calculates the implied ROIC of the bond market and compares it with the equity market's ROIC to estimate the interest rate midpoint. The formula used is: $ ROIC = (Risk-free rate + Equity risk premium) × Equity proportion + (Risk-free rate + Credit risk premium) × Debt proportion $ Here, the risk-free rate is represented by the 30-year government bond yield, and the credit risk premium is derived from AAA corporate bond spreads. The model uses data from A-share listed companies (excluding financials) and large-scale industrial enterprises to calculate ROIC values. The results show a long-term downward trend in both equity and bond market ROICs, with equity ROIC consistently higher by an average of 50 basis points over the past decade[51][52][56] - The "Multi-cycle Interest Rate Timing Strategy" is introduced, which employs kernel regression algorithms to identify support and resistance levels in interest rate trends. This strategy is applied to 5-year, 10-year, and 30-year government bond yields. The annualized returns for the strategy are 2.19%, 2.48%, and 3.26%, respectively, with maximum drawdowns of 0.72%, 0.97%, and 1.71%. The strategy demonstrates stable performance, with probabilities of achieving positive absolute and excess returns close to 100% since 2008[75][77][81] - A "Pure Bond CARRY Strategy" is also highlighted, which leverages dynamic leverage to enhance returns. The strategy allocates 140% to bonds when borrowing costs (R007) are below the 80th percentile of historical levels and 100% otherwise. Over the past decade, the strategy has delivered an annualized return of 5.56%, with a return-to-drawdown ratio of 0.92. In 2023-2025, the strategy achieved annual returns of 7.21%, 7.39%, and 2.25%, respectively, with excess returns of 84 basis points, 121 basis points, and 21 basis points[83][84][88] - The "Momentum and Fundamental Composite Factor" is used for sector rotation strategies. This factor combines "Net Profit Growth Rate (QoQ)" and "ROA TTM Growth Rate (QoQ)" to rank industries. Historical backtests from 2008 to 2025 show strong performance, with an average annualized return of 18.60% and an excess return of 8.49% over the benchmark. In 2025, industries such as electronics, computers, media, defense, non-ferrous metals, and new energy equipment ranked high in both valuation and fundamental improvement metrics, making them recommended sectors for Q1 2026[45][46][47] - The "PB-ROE Framework" is applied to identify undervalued industries. By comparing the PB and ROE levels of various sectors as of December 31, 2025, industries like non-bank financials, home appliances, agriculture, basic chemicals, and light manufacturing are identified as having relatively low PB but high ROE expectations. These sectors are considered undervalued and are recommended for investment in 2026[48][49][50]

证券研究报告|北交所专题报告 2026年1月6日 2025年新股首日涨幅均值368%，千万级账户2025年收益率预计3.4% —北交所新股月度巡礼（2025年12月） 证券分析师 姓名：赵昊 资格编号：S1350524110004 邮箱：zhaohao@huayuanstock.com 联系人 姓名：胡文瀚 邮箱：huwenhan@huayuanstock.com 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的评级说明和重要声明 核心要点：2025年新股首日收益率368%，预期顶格收益达48万元 n 发行情况：2025年共计26家公司完成上市，募资75亿元，全年募资显著超越2024年；12月有3家公司上市，募资额7.8 亿元，2025Q4则整体上市11家（募资24亿元），北交所IPO节奏维持加速态势，预计后续IPO或延续该节奏。 n 公司质量：2025年北交所新上市公司的2024年营收平均为7.8亿元，归母净利润平均为1.0亿元，毛利率达34%，财务数 据相比2023-2024年新上市公司显著提升。 n 首日涨幅：2025年北交所IPO首日平均涨幅达到368%，较2024年显著提升。12月3家新上市公司，首日平均涨幅达463%； ...

公司发布的三季报数据显示，前三季度公司共实现营业收入20.39亿元，同比下降1.94%，实现净利润 3916.02万元，同比下降47.25%，基本每股收益为0.0410元，加权平均净资产收益率1.62%。（数据宝） （文章来源：证券时报网） 嘉美包装股价创出历史新高，截至9:37，该股上涨7.37%，股价报14.71元，成交量3148.48万股，成交金 额4.46亿元，换手率3.23%，该股最新A股总市值达144.48亿元，该股A股流通市值143.57亿元。 证券时报·数据宝统计显示，嘉美包装所属的轻工制造行业，目前整体涨幅为0.44%，行业内，目前股价 上涨的有109只，涨幅居前的有美克家居、嘉美包装、张小泉等，涨幅分别为9.97%、7.37%、5.43%。 股价下跌的有50只，跌幅居前的有喜临门、王子新材、太力科技等，跌幅分别为5.91%、4.59%、 1.97%。 ...

Company Performance - The company, Xidamen, has reached a historical high in stock price, increasing by 10.00% to 18.92 yuan, with a trading volume of 5.8675 million shares and a transaction amount of 110 million yuan [2] - For the first three quarters, the company reported a total operating revenue of 651 million yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 10.43% [2] - The net profit for the same period was 87.9309 million yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 1.16%, with basic earnings per share at 0.4600 yuan and a weighted average return on equity of 6.75% [2] Industry Overview - The light manufacturing industry, to which Xidamen belongs, has an overall increase of 0.40%, with 102 stocks rising and 3 stocks, including Xidamen, hitting the daily limit [2] - Among the stocks in the industry, 56 have seen declines, with the largest drops recorded by Shunhao Co., Jiangtian Technology, and Jinfutec, with declines of 8.07%, 3.49%, and 3.16% respectively [2]

Group 1 - On December 31, among the 31 first-level industries, 8 industries received net financing inflows, with the defense and military industry leading at a net inflow of 2.343 billion yuan [1] - Other industries with significant net financing inflows include home appliances, media, and light manufacturing [1] Group 2 - A total of 1,168 individual stocks received net financing inflows on December 31, with 126 stocks having net inflows exceeding 30 million yuan [1] - Among these, 35 stocks had net inflows exceeding 100 million yuan [1] - China Satellite topped the list with a net inflow of 1.194 billion yuan, followed by XW Communication, Aerospace Electronics, Sanhua Intelligent Control, Wanxiang Qianchao, Aerospace Development, Zhaoyi Innovation, Tianci Materials, and Shunhao Shares [1]

Market Overview - In 2025, the A-share market experienced a structural "small bull" market, with 4,110 out of 5,176 stocks showing positive growth, and 523 stocks rising over 100% [1] - However, 40 stocks fell over 30%, with 7 stocks declining more than 40% [1] Worst Performing Stocks - The largest decline was seen in Shijing Technology, which dropped 50.99% in 2025, primarily due to a significant decrease in completed orders after entering the photovoltaic sector [3] - Kangle Weishi ranked second with a decline of 49.97%, continuing to face losses since 2013, with a net profit loss of 2.29 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025 [3][4] - Longda Meishi experienced a 48.11% drop, affected by a prolonged downturn in the pig cycle and intensified competition in the prepared food sector [3] Financial Performance - Kangle Weishi reported a revenue of 1.2763 million yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 106.53%, but still faced a net profit loss of 2.29 billion yuan [4] - The food and beverage sector saw a 9.69% decline in 2025, marking its fifth consecutive year of losses, with a cumulative drop of over 50% since the peak in 2021 [8][10] Industry Trends - The pharmaceutical and biotechnology sector showed signs of recovery in 2025, with an 11.94% increase, ending a four-year downtrend [10] - The food and beverage sector is expected to benefit from macro policies aimed at boosting domestic demand, with potential recovery in the white liquor and pre-processed food segments [10][11]

Market Overview - The overall A-share market rose in the fourth week of December 2025, with the North Exchange's trading activity declining, as the average daily trading amount fell below 200 billion yuan to 199.87 billion yuan, a decrease of 11.68% from the previous week[1][8]. - The North Exchange 50 Index increased by 1.19% during the week, which is weaker compared to other major indices[1][14]. Trading Activity - The North Exchange's trading volume accounted for 1.02% of the total market, continuing a downward trend since May 2025, although it remains above the North Exchange's circulating market value ratio[11][12]. - The average turnover rate for the North Exchange was 21.85%, leading among the three exchanges[7][8]. Sector Performance - Most sectors on the North Exchange experienced negative median returns, with the food and beverage sector leading declines at -7.72%, while the media sector had the highest median gain at 2.25%[19]. - The computer industry had the highest median price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio at 145.25 times, indicating high valuation compared to other sectors[19][25]. New Listings and IPOs - There were no new stock offerings on the North Exchange during the week, but one new stock, Jiangtian Technology, was listed, with a first-day average price increase of 209.92%[43][44]. New Third Board Activity - The trading scale of the New Third Board increased, with a total of 5,956 listed companies, and the average trading amount for the innovation layer rose by 42.76% to 19.04 billion yuan, while the basic layer increased by 53.31%[37][40].

Group 1: Market Overview - The main market saw a net outflow of 270.79 billion yuan, with the ChiNext board experiencing a net outflow of 119.46 billion yuan and the CSI 300 index seeing a net outflow of 143.37 billion yuan [1] - Among the 15 primary industries, the defense and military industry had the highest increase at 2.13%, while sectors like media, real estate, and non-ferrous metals also saw gains exceeding 1% [1] - In contrast, 16 industries experienced declines, with telecommunications, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and electronic sectors dropping over 1% [1] Group 2: Capital Flow by Industry - Eight industries saw net inflows of main capital, with the media industry leading at 40.5 billion yuan, followed by the defense and military industry with 19.77 billion yuan [1] - Other industries with net inflows exceeding 1 billion yuan included light manufacturing, steel, and coal [1] - Conversely, 23 industries faced net outflows, with the power equipment and electronic sectors leading with outflows exceeding 54 billion yuan each [1] Group 3: Individual Stock Performance - Two AI application concept stocks, BlueFocus and Liou Co., saw net inflows exceeding 23 billion yuan each, with both stocks hitting the daily limit up [2] - Liou Co. had a significant trading volume, with 13.52 billion yuan in total transactions, accounting for 24.7% of the day's total, and a net buy of 5.39 billion yuan [3] - Newly listed N Xinguangyi opened at 65 yuan per share and closed at 71.32 yuan, marking a 225.22% increase with a trading volume of 17.41 billion yuan [4] Group 4: Late Trading Activity - In late trading, the market saw a net outflow of 36.63 billion yuan, with the ChiNext board experiencing a net outflow of 22.01 billion yuan [7] - Notably, the aerospace development stock had a net inflow of 5.63 billion yuan in late trading, while other stocks like Xinwei Communication and Sanhua Intelligent Control also saw significant inflows [8] - Conversely, stocks like Xinyi Sheng experienced net outflows exceeding 3.52 billion yuan in late trading [8][9]

盘后数据出炉。 12月31日，A股市场主要股指多数下跌，截至收盘，上证指数报3968.84点，上涨0.09%；深证成指报13525.02点，下跌0.58%；创业板指 报3203.17点，下跌1.23%。两市合计成交20451.42亿元，较上一交易日减少971.83亿元。 1.两市主力资金净流出超270亿元 今日沪深两市主力资金开盘净流出129.42亿元，尾盘净流出36.63亿元，两市全天主力资金净流出270.79亿元。 | | | 沪深两市最近五个交易日主力资金流向情况(亿元) | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日期 | | 净流入金额 开盘净流入 | 尾盘净流入 | 超大单净买入 | | 2025- 12- 31 | - 270. 79 | - 129. 42 | - 36. 63 | - 63. 89 | | 2025- 12- 30 | - 238. 28 | - 116. 17 | - 40. 17 | - 94. 18 | | 2025- 12- 29 | - 482. 76 | - 221. 26 | - 77. 92 | - 210. 81 | | ...

Core Insights - In 2025, a total of 870 companies in the A-share market experienced changes in their board secretaries, with a significant concentration in the manufacturing and financial sectors, which together account for 60% of the changes, indicating a close relationship with economic cycles [1][2] Group 1: Company Changes - The majority of changes in board secretaries occurred in the second half of 2025, aligning with annual management adjustment cycles [6] - Approximately 40% of the companies reported a year-on-year increase in net profit attributable to shareholders in the third quarter, while the average stock price increase for the year reached 12.47%, suggesting a neutral to positive market reaction to these changes [2] Group 2: Regional Distribution - The East China (Shanghai, Zhejiang) and South China (Guangdong) regions accounted for over 50% of the changes, reflecting regional economic vitality [2] Group 3: Characteristics of Board Secretaries - The tenure of board secretaries varies widely, with some having served since 1999; 70% of them are male, with an average age of 56 years [2] - 30% of the changes were due to retirement, indicating a need for governance structure optimization, while 40% were attributed to job adjustments [2][8] Group 4: Industry Focus - The changes were particularly concentrated in the real estate, electronic equipment, and energy sectors, reflecting the current economic structure of Zhejiang, where real estate and energy are pillar industries, and electronic equipment benefits from technological innovation [7][8]