Core Viewpoint - The energy metals sector experienced a decline of 1.24% on January 29, with Yongshan Lithium Industry leading the drop. The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.16%, while the Shenzhen Component Index fell by 0.3 [1]. Group 1: Market Performance - The closing price of the Shanghai Composite Index was 4157.98, and the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 14300.08 [1]. - Key stocks in the energy metals sector showed mixed performance, with notable gainers including Boqian New Materials (+2.40%) and Zangge Mining (+2.02%), while Yongshan Lithium Industry led the decline at -4.00% [1][2]. Group 2: Trading Volume and Value - Boqian New Materials had a trading volume of 154,800 shares and a transaction value of 1.432 billion yuan, while Zangge Mining had a volume of 270,000 shares and a value of 2.464 billion yuan [1]. - The overall trading volume and value for the energy metals sector indicated significant activity, with major stocks like Ganfeng Lithium and Huayou Cobalt also contributing to the sector's dynamics [1][2]. Group 3: Capital Flow - The energy metals sector saw a net outflow of 1.208 billion yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors contributed a net inflow of 994 million yuan [2][3]. - Specific stocks like Zangge Mining and Boqian New Materials experienced varying levels of net inflow and outflow from different investor categories, indicating diverse investor sentiment [3].

Group 1 - The domestic commodity futures market opened with most contracts rising, with notable increases in gold (over 7%), silver (over 4%), and fuel (nearly 3%) [1] - The industrial non-ferrous ETF WanJia (560860) saw a significant increase of 4.03%, reaching a historical high, with a trading volume of 290 million [1] - The ETF has attracted substantial capital inflows, with a total of over 6.9 billion yuan in net inflows over the past five days, and over 46 billion yuan in the last 20 days [1] Group 2 - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell indicated that inflation pressures are primarily due to tariffs rather than demand factors, leading to a significant rise in gold prices, which surpassed 5400 USD [3] - The London Metal Exchange (LME) saw most base metals rise, with tin increasing by 3.52% to 56,795 USD/ton, aluminum by 1.59% to 3,263.5 USD/ton, and copper by 0.74% to 13,120 USD/ton [3] - The metal industry is entering a weak supply cycle, with global mining supply expected to maintain strong rigidity until 2028, while demand is anticipated to increase due to green energy transitions and new production capabilities [3] Group 3 - The industrial non-ferrous ETF WanJia (560860) closely tracks the CSI Industrial Non-Ferrous Metals Theme Index, covering strategic resources such as copper, aluminum, and rare earths [4] - Investors can access this ETF through linked classes (A class: 018489; C class: 018490) to capitalize on cyclical and policy-driven opportunities [4]

Core Viewpoint - The trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Connect reached a total of 375.77 billion, with Zijin Mining and CATL leading in individual stock trading volume [1][3] Group 1: Trading Volume and Key Stocks - The total trading amount for the Shanghai Stock Connect was 185.69 billion, while the Shenzhen Stock Connect totaled 190.08 billion [1] - Zijin Mining ranked first in the Shanghai Stock Connect, while CATL topped the Shenzhen Stock Connect [2][3] Group 2: Sector Performance - The non-ferrous metals sector saw the highest net inflow of main funds, amounting to 97.43 billion, with a net inflow rate of 2.92% [4][6] - Other sectors with significant inflows included industrial metals and communications, while the new energy and pharmaceutical sectors experienced notable outflows [4][6] Group 3: ETF Trading - The CSI 500 ETF from Huaxia (512500) saw a remarkable trading volume increase of 1188% compared to the previous trading day, leading the growth in ETF trading [9] - The top ETF by trading volume was the CSI 300 ETF from Huatai Baichuan (510300), with a trading amount of 401 billion [9] Group 4: Institutional Activity - Institutional buying was notable in stocks like Hongjing Technology, which saw a 7.04% increase and received 1.45 billion from three institutions [10] - Conversely, AI application stock Sanwei Communication faced selling pressure, with two institutions selling 1.18 billion [10]

Group 1: Dollar Weakness and Market Impact - The weakening of the dollar is reshaping global market dynamics, leading to a shift in asset allocation driven by "devaluation trades" across various sectors including precious metals and emerging market currencies [1][2] - The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell nearly 3% over four trading days, reaching a four-year low, primarily due to market concerns over the unpredictable policies of the Trump administration and ongoing criticism of the Federal Reserve [2] - The dollar index showed a slight rebound of 0.2%, currently at 96.4, but remains in a weak range [5][16] Group 2: Precious Metals Performance - Gold prices surged past $5200 per ounce, marking a historical high and a cumulative increase of approximately 20% this year, while silver prices have skyrocketed over 50% [1][11] - The current bull market in precious metals is attracting investors away from currencies and sovereign bonds towards hard assets, amid concerns over fiscal deficits [11][15] Group 3: Industrial Metals Strength - Industrial metals are experiencing a strong start in 2026, with aluminum prices rising 1.2% to $3246.50 per ton, reaching the highest level since April 2022, while copper and zinc also saw increases of 1.4% and 1.7% respectively [12][15] - Goldman Sachs has raised its aluminum price forecast, citing strong price performance and sustained bullish sentiment among investors [15] Group 4: Asian Currency Market - Emerging Asian currencies reached their highest levels since July last year, driven by the "dollar devaluation trade," with the MSCI Emerging Market Currency Index hitting a record high [16] - The Korean won and Malaysian ringgit led the gains, benefiting from the dollar's weakness and a recovery in growth, particularly in the technology sector [1][16]

一、贵金属期货 现货黄金与纽约期金近期呈现剧烈波动，周二（1月27日）纽约尾盘，现货黄金涨3.52%，刷新历史高 位至5187.37美元/盎司，亚太盘初以来在5013.93-5100美元区间震荡上行，04:00以来显著加速走高。 COMEX黄金期货涨1.82%，报5175.10美元/盎司，日内大部分时间持稳于5080美元附近，05:00美股收盘 时（在电子交易盘）刷新历史高位至5187.20美元；4月合约（较上个交易日尾盘）涨3.45%，报5217.30 美元，一度刷新历史高位至5225.80美元。 随后，现货黄金突破5190美元/盎司，日内涨3.63%，但亚太时段出现回调，失守5160美元/盎司，日内 跌0.42%。 纽约期金同样经历冲高回落，曾突破5220美元/盎司，日内涨1.95%，后失守5200美元/盎司，日内涨 1.55%。 现货白银与纽约期银波动更为剧烈，纽约期银突破113美元/盎司，日内涨6.66%，但随后失守111美元/ 盎司，日内涨4.73%；现货白银同步突破113美元/盎司，日内涨0.95%，后失守111美元/盎司，日内跌 0.88%。 此外，现货铂金跌幅扩大，最新下跌超8%，至每盎司25 ...

在最新发布的年度商品展望报告中，花旗大宗商品研究团队把焦点放在两个矛盾点上：一边是贵金属价格与矿山成本"脱钩"、利润率飙到几十年罕见； 另一边是基本金属短期顺风仍在，但真正能讲中期故事的，集中在铜、铝以及它们背后的电力与AI叙事。 据追风交易台消息，花旗分析师Max Layton等人对黄金的核心判断，是其定价锚正在发生结构性迁移：金价不再由边际开采成本主导，而是由全球对黄 金的名义支出规模，与高度刚性的供给能力共同决定。在矿产供给、回收与存量抛售弹性有限的前提下，价格本身成为唯一的清算机制。实物黄金市场 体量过小，使得哪怕极小比例的财富再配置，也只能通过价格大幅上行来完成平衡，黄金因此从"避险工具"转变为反映全球财富结构变化的宏观资产。 在花旗设定的"牛市情景"下，黄金、铜、铝的价格中枢将显著抬升：黄金可能上看6000美元/盎司，铜升至15000美元/吨，铝则逼近4000美元/吨。 黄金涨到"脱离成本"，反而让对冲变成高风险动作 报告先抛出一个直观事实：金价已经在名义和实际口径都创了新高，并且与边际开采成本出现明显背离，远期价格也显著高于现货。结果是——高成本 金矿的利润率冲到"半个世纪最高"，甚至比1980 ...

Group 1 - The rising silver prices have led consumers to seek alternatives, with "investment copper bars" gaining popularity as a substitute for gold and silver [2][6] - The price of copper bars in Shenzhen's Shui Bei market ranges from 180 to 288 yuan per kilogram, despite a ban on their sale [3][4] - Some merchants express skepticism about the investment potential of copper bars, suggesting that serious investors should consider purchasing copper in bulk rather than in small quantities [4][10] Group 2 - The demand for copper is increasing due to structural growth in various sectors, including artificial intelligence, electric vehicles, and renewable energy [6][8] - The international copper price is significantly influenced by supply and demand fundamentals, making it more suitable for professional investors familiar with commodity cycles [9][10] - Investment in physical copper bars is deemed inadequate due to weak financial attributes, lack of a mature recycling system, and potential compliance risks associated with the sale of copper [10]

Core Viewpoint - The surge in global metal prices has propelled BHP Group Ltd. to reclaim its title as Australia's largest listed company, surpassing Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA) [1][4][9] Group 1: Company Performance - BHP's stock price rose by 3.4%, increasing its market capitalization to over AUD 253 billion (approximately USD 175 billion) [1] - Since the second half of 2025, BHP's stock has surged by 50%, with its market value increasing by over AUD 20 billion since the beginning of 2026 [4] - Copper accounted for nearly half of BHP's total revenue at the fiscal year-end, significantly boosting its financial performance [10] Group 2: Market Trends - The LME copper futures price has increased by approximately 40% since the second half of 2025, contributing to the rise in mining stocks globally [4][6] - The mining sector index in Australia has risen by 42% over the past 12 months, while the financial sector index has only increased by 2% [4] - Gold prices surged by 70% in 2025, marking the largest annual increase since 1979, while silver prices rose by 150% during the same period [5] Group 3: Investment Sentiment - Global mining stocks, including BHP and Rio Tinto, have become top investment targets for fund managers due to increased demand for industrial metals driven by AI and supply constraints [5][6] - The MSCI metals and mining index has risen nearly 90% since 2025, outperforming major tech and banking indices [6] - Fund managers in Europe have increased their net holdings in the mining sector to 26%, the highest level in four years [7] Group 4: Future Outlook - Analysts predict that the demand for copper will grow by about 50% by 2040 due to new applications in AI and defense, leading to potential supply shortages [10][11] - The current market dynamics suggest a fundamental shift in commodity investment logic, with mining stocks transitioning from defensive plays to essential portfolio anchors [7][11] - The ongoing geopolitical uncertainties and inflationary pressures are expected to further drive the demand for precious metals like gold and silver [9][10]

Citi Research January 26, 2026 January 2026 Update Metals Outlook Global Commodities Maximilian LaytonAC Global Head | Commodities max.layton@citi.com +44 20 7986 4556 1. Gold and silver outlook and corporate hedging considerations – insurance recommended in precious metals 2 Gold and silver prices and miner margins are astonishingly high Tom MulqueenAC Metals Strategy tom.mulqueen@citi.com +44 20 7986 4559 Wenyu YaoAC Metals Strategy wenyu.yao@citi.com +44 20 7986 4551 Kenny Hu, CFAAC Commodities Strategy ...

Market Overview - On January 26, the A-share market saw a collective decline, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.09% to 4132 points, the Shenzhen Component Index down 0.85%, and the ChiNext Index down 0.91% [1]. High-Performance Stocks - Notable high-performing stocks included: - Jinding New Materials with 5 consecutive trading limits in 9 days - Silver Industry with 5 consecutive trading limits - Sichuan Gold with 4 trading limits in 8 days - Other stocks like Tian Di Online and Zhao Jin Gold also showed strong performance with multiple trading limits [3]. Top Net Purchases - The top three net purchases on the day were: - Wangsu Technology with a net purchase of 614 million - Zhongtung High-tech with 300 million - World with 217 million [3]. Institutional Purchases - Among stocks with institutional special seats, the top three net purchases were: - Wangsu Technology with 218 million - World with 183 million - Zhongchao Holdings with 120 million [5][6]. Price Movements - Significant price movements included: - Maiwei Co. with a 45.47% increase to 342.11 - Wangsu Technology up 20.04% to 13.78 - Qianzhao Optoelectronics up 8.55% to 42.52 [4][6]. Precious Metals Market - Recent trends show spot gold and silver prices breaking historical highs, driven by geopolitical tensions and expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, which has increased market risk aversion [11]. - Companies involved in gold and silver production are expected to benefit significantly from rising product prices [11]. AI and Cloud Services - Reports indicate that Amazon's AI computing service has increased prices by 15%, prompting domestic cloud service providers to evaluate potential price adjustments. This is expected to lead to increased capital expenditures among major internet firms like Alibaba and Tencent, indicating strong demand for computing power [13]. Rare Metals Market - The rare metals market is showing strong performance, with prices for strategic resources like rare earths, lithium, tungsten, and nickel continuing to rise due to macroeconomic factors, supply-demand dynamics, and policy influences [17]. Stock Highlights - Notable stock movements included: - Xinke Mobile down 18.15% with a trading volume of 50.94 billion - Jinlong Automobile hitting the limit down with a trading volume of 3.86 billion - Aerospace Engineering also hitting the limit down with a trading volume of 11.11 billion [17]. Trading Dynamics - The trading dynamics showed significant net purchases from various investment groups, with notable net purchases in stocks like Wangsu Technology and Youke De, indicating active trading strategies [20][23].