专题：为中国经济点赞——企业家之夜2025盛典 他被誉为"有色金属领域的李四光"。四十四载风雨兼程，他跋涉于崇山峻岭间，主导发现并探明了一批 世界级超大型矿床，"点石成金"破解了一系列低品位、难采选资源的关键技术与工程难题。他以炽热情 怀开基创业，以非凡胆略勇闯全球，带领紫金矿业从一个开办费仅一万元的县属小企业，蝶变为总市值 超万亿的全球一流跨国矿业集团，推动中国矿业在国际舞台实现历史性跨越。 陈景河在发表感言时表示，44年来，他基本都是从事地质探矿和矿业开发工作，这是非常艰苦的行业。 他用四年时间发现了福建上杭紫金山低品位的超大型金铜矿，在基本上没有资本金，缺人才、少技术背 景下，开启了其创业创新的历程。用四年时间把紫金矿业这个低品位的金铜矿成功开发出来，完成了资 本积累，人才、技术的积累。 通过30几年的创新和努力，紫金矿业的全球竞争力已经初步形成。他提到，紫金矿业原来县政府给了1 万块钱开发费，截至今日（1月29日）收盘，公司总市值达到11600亿元。紫金的业务除北美外遍布全 球，海外资源储量、采量、利润、员工全面超越国内，是一个国际化公司。 "我可以非常负责任地说，现在搞矿山，西方公司肯定搞不过我们， ...

Core Viewpoint - The energy metals sector experienced a decline of 1.24% on January 29, with Yongshan Lithium Industry leading the drop. The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.16%, while the Shenzhen Component Index fell by 0.3 [1]. Group 1: Market Performance - The closing price of the Shanghai Composite Index was 4157.98, and the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 14300.08 [1]. - Key stocks in the energy metals sector showed mixed performance, with notable gainers including Boqian New Materials (+2.40%) and Zangge Mining (+2.02%), while Yongshan Lithium Industry led the decline at -4.00% [1][2]. Group 2: Trading Volume and Value - Boqian New Materials had a trading volume of 154,800 shares and a transaction value of 1.432 billion yuan, while Zangge Mining had a volume of 270,000 shares and a value of 2.464 billion yuan [1]. - The overall trading volume and value for the energy metals sector indicated significant activity, with major stocks like Ganfeng Lithium and Huayou Cobalt also contributing to the sector's dynamics [1][2]. Group 3: Capital Flow - The energy metals sector saw a net outflow of 1.208 billion yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors contributed a net inflow of 994 million yuan [2][3]. - Specific stocks like Zangge Mining and Boqian New Materials experienced varying levels of net inflow and outflow from different investor categories, indicating diverse investor sentiment [3].

Group 1 - The domestic commodity futures market opened with most contracts rising, with notable increases in gold (over 7%), silver (over 4%), and fuel (nearly 3%) [1] - The industrial non-ferrous ETF WanJia (560860) saw a significant increase of 4.03%, reaching a historical high, with a trading volume of 290 million [1] - The ETF has attracted substantial capital inflows, with a total of over 6.9 billion yuan in net inflows over the past five days, and over 46 billion yuan in the last 20 days [1] Group 2 - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell indicated that inflation pressures are primarily due to tariffs rather than demand factors, leading to a significant rise in gold prices, which surpassed 5400 USD [3] - The London Metal Exchange (LME) saw most base metals rise, with tin increasing by 3.52% to 56,795 USD/ton, aluminum by 1.59% to 3,263.5 USD/ton, and copper by 0.74% to 13,120 USD/ton [3] - The metal industry is entering a weak supply cycle, with global mining supply expected to maintain strong rigidity until 2028, while demand is anticipated to increase due to green energy transitions and new production capabilities [3] Group 3 - The industrial non-ferrous ETF WanJia (560860) closely tracks the CSI Industrial Non-Ferrous Metals Theme Index, covering strategic resources such as copper, aluminum, and rare earths [4] - Investors can access this ETF through linked classes (A class: 018489; C class: 018490) to capitalize on cyclical and policy-driven opportunities [4]

Core Viewpoint - The trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Connect reached a total of 375.77 billion, with Zijin Mining and CATL leading in individual stock trading volume [1][3] Group 1: Trading Volume and Key Stocks - The total trading amount for the Shanghai Stock Connect was 185.69 billion, while the Shenzhen Stock Connect totaled 190.08 billion [1] - Zijin Mining ranked first in the Shanghai Stock Connect, while CATL topped the Shenzhen Stock Connect [2][3] Group 2: Sector Performance - The non-ferrous metals sector saw the highest net inflow of main funds, amounting to 97.43 billion, with a net inflow rate of 2.92% [4][6] - Other sectors with significant inflows included industrial metals and communications, while the new energy and pharmaceutical sectors experienced notable outflows [4][6] Group 3: ETF Trading - The CSI 500 ETF from Huaxia (512500) saw a remarkable trading volume increase of 1188% compared to the previous trading day, leading the growth in ETF trading [9] - The top ETF by trading volume was the CSI 300 ETF from Huatai Baichuan (510300), with a trading amount of 401 billion [9] Group 4: Institutional Activity - Institutional buying was notable in stocks like Hongjing Technology, which saw a 7.04% increase and received 1.45 billion from three institutions [10] - Conversely, AI application stock Sanwei Communication faced selling pressure, with two institutions selling 1.18 billion [10]

Group 1: Dollar Weakness and Market Impact - The weakening of the dollar is reshaping global market dynamics, leading to a shift in asset allocation driven by "devaluation trades" across various sectors including precious metals and emerging market currencies [1][2] - The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell nearly 3% over four trading days, reaching a four-year low, primarily due to market concerns over the unpredictable policies of the Trump administration and ongoing criticism of the Federal Reserve [2] - The dollar index showed a slight rebound of 0.2%, currently at 96.4, but remains in a weak range [5][16] Group 2: Precious Metals Performance - Gold prices surged past $5200 per ounce, marking a historical high and a cumulative increase of approximately 20% this year, while silver prices have skyrocketed over 50% [1][11] - The current bull market in precious metals is attracting investors away from currencies and sovereign bonds towards hard assets, amid concerns over fiscal deficits [11][15] Group 3: Industrial Metals Strength - Industrial metals are experiencing a strong start in 2026, with aluminum prices rising 1.2% to $3246.50 per ton, reaching the highest level since April 2022, while copper and zinc also saw increases of 1.4% and 1.7% respectively [12][15] - Goldman Sachs has raised its aluminum price forecast, citing strong price performance and sustained bullish sentiment among investors [15] Group 4: Asian Currency Market - Emerging Asian currencies reached their highest levels since July last year, driven by the "dollar devaluation trade," with the MSCI Emerging Market Currency Index hitting a record high [16] - The Korean won and Malaysian ringgit led the gains, benefiting from the dollar's weakness and a recovery in growth, particularly in the technology sector [1][16]

一、贵金属期货 现货黄金与纽约期金近期呈现剧烈波动，周二（1月27日）纽约尾盘，现货黄金涨3.52%，刷新历史高 位至5187.37美元/盎司，亚太盘初以来在5013.93-5100美元区间震荡上行，04:00以来显著加速走高。 COMEX黄金期货涨1.82%，报5175.10美元/盎司，日内大部分时间持稳于5080美元附近，05:00美股收盘 时（在电子交易盘）刷新历史高位至5187.20美元；4月合约（较上个交易日尾盘）涨3.45%，报5217.30 美元，一度刷新历史高位至5225.80美元。 随后，现货黄金突破5190美元/盎司，日内涨3.63%，但亚太时段出现回调，失守5160美元/盎司，日内 跌0.42%。 纽约期金同样经历冲高回落，曾突破5220美元/盎司，日内涨1.95%，后失守5200美元/盎司，日内涨 1.55%。 现货白银与纽约期银波动更为剧烈，纽约期银突破113美元/盎司，日内涨6.66%，但随后失守111美元/ 盎司，日内涨4.73%；现货白银同步突破113美元/盎司，日内涨0.95%，后失守111美元/盎司，日内跌 0.88%。 此外，现货铂金跌幅扩大，最新下跌超8%，至每盎司25 ...

在最新发布的年度商品展望报告中，花旗大宗商品研究团队把焦点放在两个矛盾点上：一边是贵金属价格与矿山成本"脱钩"、利润率飙到几十年罕见； 另一边是基本金属短期顺风仍在，但真正能讲中期故事的，集中在铜、铝以及它们背后的电力与AI叙事。 据追风交易台消息，花旗分析师Max Layton等人对黄金的核心判断，是其定价锚正在发生结构性迁移：金价不再由边际开采成本主导，而是由全球对黄 金的名义支出规模，与高度刚性的供给能力共同决定。在矿产供给、回收与存量抛售弹性有限的前提下，价格本身成为唯一的清算机制。实物黄金市场 体量过小，使得哪怕极小比例的财富再配置，也只能通过价格大幅上行来完成平衡，黄金因此从"避险工具"转变为反映全球财富结构变化的宏观资产。 在花旗设定的"牛市情景"下，黄金、铜、铝的价格中枢将显著抬升：黄金可能上看6000美元/盎司，铜升至15000美元/吨，铝则逼近4000美元/吨。 黄金涨到"脱离成本"，反而让对冲变成高风险动作 报告先抛出一个直观事实：金价已经在名义和实际口径都创了新高，并且与边际开采成本出现明显背离，远期价格也显著高于现货。结果是——高成本 金矿的利润率冲到"半个世纪最高"，甚至比1980 ...

Group 1 - The rising silver prices have led consumers to seek alternatives, with "investment copper bars" gaining popularity as a substitute for gold and silver [2][6] - The price of copper bars in Shenzhen's Shui Bei market ranges from 180 to 288 yuan per kilogram, despite a ban on their sale [3][4] - Some merchants express skepticism about the investment potential of copper bars, suggesting that serious investors should consider purchasing copper in bulk rather than in small quantities [4][10] Group 2 - The demand for copper is increasing due to structural growth in various sectors, including artificial intelligence, electric vehicles, and renewable energy [6][8] - The international copper price is significantly influenced by supply and demand fundamentals, making it more suitable for professional investors familiar with commodity cycles [9][10] - Investment in physical copper bars is deemed inadequate due to weak financial attributes, lack of a mature recycling system, and potential compliance risks associated with the sale of copper [10]

Core Viewpoint - The surge in global metal prices has propelled BHP Group Ltd. to reclaim its title as Australia's largest listed company, surpassing Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA) [1][4][9] Group 1: Company Performance - BHP's stock price rose by 3.4%, increasing its market capitalization to over AUD 253 billion (approximately USD 175 billion) [1] - Since the second half of 2025, BHP's stock has surged by 50%, with its market value increasing by over AUD 20 billion since the beginning of 2026 [4] - Copper accounted for nearly half of BHP's total revenue at the fiscal year-end, significantly boosting its financial performance [10] Group 2: Market Trends - The LME copper futures price has increased by approximately 40% since the second half of 2025, contributing to the rise in mining stocks globally [4][6] - The mining sector index in Australia has risen by 42% over the past 12 months, while the financial sector index has only increased by 2% [4] - Gold prices surged by 70% in 2025, marking the largest annual increase since 1979, while silver prices rose by 150% during the same period [5] Group 3: Investment Sentiment - Global mining stocks, including BHP and Rio Tinto, have become top investment targets for fund managers due to increased demand for industrial metals driven by AI and supply constraints [5][6] - The MSCI metals and mining index has risen nearly 90% since 2025, outperforming major tech and banking indices [6] - Fund managers in Europe have increased their net holdings in the mining sector to 26%, the highest level in four years [7] Group 4: Future Outlook - Analysts predict that the demand for copper will grow by about 50% by 2040 due to new applications in AI and defense, leading to potential supply shortages [10][11] - The current market dynamics suggest a fundamental shift in commodity investment logic, with mining stocks transitioning from defensive plays to essential portfolio anchors [7][11] - The ongoing geopolitical uncertainties and inflationary pressures are expected to further drive the demand for precious metals like gold and silver [9][10]

Citi Research January 26, 2026 January 2026 Update Metals Outlook Global Commodities Maximilian LaytonAC Global Head | Commodities max.layton@citi.com +44 20 7986 4556 1. Gold and silver outlook and corporate hedging considerations – insurance recommended in precious metals 2 Gold and silver prices and miner margins are astonishingly high Tom MulqueenAC Metals Strategy tom.mulqueen@citi.com +44 20 7986 4559 Wenyu YaoAC Metals Strategy wenyu.yao@citi.com +44 20 7986 4551 Kenny Hu, CFAAC Commodities Strategy ...