Core Viewpoint - The U.S. stock market has experienced its worst relative quarterly performance in decades, with strong interest from Wall Street to buy the dip, but finding the right entry point remains challenging due to the looming risks from Trump's tariff policies [1][6]. Group 1: Market Performance - The S&P 500 index has declined by 5.1% this year, while the MSCI global ex-U.S. index has risen by 6.5%, marking the largest quarterly gap since 1988 [3]. - Major technology stocks, once market leaders during the AI boom, have faced significant declines, contributing to the poor performance of the S&P 500 [3][10]. - The so-called "Magnificent 7" stocks have recorded a cumulative year-to-date drop of 17%, raising concerns about entering the market at this time [10]. Group 2: Tariff Policy Impact - The upcoming announcement of "reciprocal tariffs" by Trump is a focal point for the market, with many investors uncertain about when it will be safe to enter [6][8]. - Analysts express that the uncertainty surrounding tariff details and their impact on corporate earnings is hindering a significant recovery in the U.S. stock market [8]. Group 3: Market Sentiment and Technical Indicators - Technical indicators suggest that the U.S. stock market has not yet triggered a bottoming signal, with the S&P 500 needing to drop below 5250 points to reach historical low positioning [10]. - The "fear index" VIX has risen above 20, indicating increased anxiety among traders, while the VVIX has shown the largest jump of the year after hovering at six-month lows [10]. Group 4: Investor Sentiment and Strategy - Many investors are feeling frustrated and fatigued due to the current trading environment, lacking clear strategic guidance on how to proceed [12]. - The shift in mindset from greed to fear among traders reflects a growing concern about potential losses, although panic has not yet set in among clients [12].

以下文章来源于申万宏源策略 ，作者全球资产配置团队 特朗普关税即将落地，全球权益回调，商品多数上涨 ——全球资产配置每周聚焦 (20250321-20250329) 金倩婧/冯晓宇/林遵东/涂锦文/王胜 本期投资提示： 申万宏源策略 . 我们强调体系性、实战性 全球资产估值方面：本周(20250321-20250328)，全球股市ERP方面，本周A股，A股的ERP分位 数有所回升。 全球股市ERP方面，A股资产ERP性价比较高，本周的中国资产的ERP历史分位数 上升，恒生指数和恒生国企的ERP历史分位数分别为14%和13%，处在较低的位置，标普500和 纳斯达克的ERP分位数保持基本稳定，当前ERP分位数最低的欧洲Stoxx600和道琼斯指数， 全 球资产风险调整后收益分位数上，近十年维度上 ，纳斯达克100、标普500和日经225的动态风 险调整后收益在50%分位以下继续下跌，恒生指数动态风险调整收益略微回调至89%，沪深300 风险调整收益分位数从76%回升至80%基本稳定；商品方面，贵金属的风险调整收益分位数维 持96%的高位。 全球资产风险指标：美股散户看多比例小幅上升但仍处低位，A股期权定价依然乐观 ...

Market Overview - The three major U.S. indices declined for the second consecutive trading day, with the Dow Jones down 155.09 points (0.37%) to 42299.70 points, the Nasdaq down 94.98 points (0.53%) to 17804.03 points, and the S&P 500 down 18.89 points (0.33%) to 5693.31 points [1] - European indices also fell, with Germany's DAX30 down 180.03 points (0.79%) to 22667.39 points, the UK's FTSE 100 down 22.47 points (0.26%) to 8667.12 points, and France's CAC40 down 40.57 points (0.51%) to 7990.11 points [2] - In the Asia-Pacific region, the Nikkei 225 index fell by 0.6% and the KOSPI index dropped by 1.39% [3] Automotive Industry - U.S. automotive stocks continued to decline, with General Motors down 7.36%, Ford down 3.79%, and Toyota down 2.84% for the second consecutive day [1] - Analysts predict that the impact of President Trump's proposed 25% tariffs on automotive and parts imports will not be significant until the third quarter, with potential earnings impacts of up to 20% unless manufacturers change sourcing strategies [9] Cryptocurrency and Commodities - Bitcoin rose by 0.73% to $87560.29 [4] - Spot gold increased by 1.23% to $3056.54 per ounce, reaching a historical high of $3059.63 [4] - WTI crude oil prices rose by approximately 0.4%, closing at $69.92 per barrel, the highest level since February [4] Company-Specific News - Kyndryl's stock fell by 5.11% following a short report alleging financial manipulation, including inflated revenue and misclassification of expenses [11] - Intel announced that three board members will retire and will not seek re-election at the 2025 annual meeting [10]

高盛、富达看好A股，外资做多中国热情创四年新 高 他还对界面新闻表示，中国科技股的亮眼表现是由基本面驱动的，未来上涨动能会往外扩张，成为 外资更加关注中国的关键催化剂之一，从而吸引更多国际资本回到中国股市。 尽管受外部贸易环境不确定性的影响，但今年迄今中国股市是全球表现最佳的市场之一，尤其是离 岸中资概念股。近期高盛、摩根士丹利、花旗、瑞银纷纷上调中国股票评级，认为中国资产的估值更具 吸引力。 周三，高盛首席中国股票策略师刘劲津发布名为《中国已经回归》的报告，重申A股本轮涨势将会 比去年9月时更加持久。 刘劲津表示，海外投资者对中国股市的兴趣和参与度已经上涨到近四年新高。从目前来看，特朗普 关税对于A股的冲击没有其第一任期时那么大，同时，中国以AI为代表的科技行业出现结构性增长机 会，房地产等传统经济行业也出现了复苏的萌芽，这使高盛对中国经济增长前景更为乐观. 同日，富达国际也表达了看好中国股市的观点。该公司基金经理George Efstathopoulos在一场研讨 会上表示，自2024年四季度中国政府推出新一轮刺激政策以来，经济数据明显改善，货币和财政政策立 场更加明确，企业盈利也出现改善。在房地产领域， ...

资金流向方面，今日该股主力资金净流入759.75万元，其中，特大单净流出1016.47万元，大单资金净流 入1776.22万元。近5日主力资金净流出1010.84万元。（数据宝） | 买/卖 | 会员营业部名称 | 买入金额（万元） | 卖出金额（万元） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 买一 | 机构专用 | 2210.96 | 1000.87 | | 买二 | 机构专用 | 1868.07 | 790.79 | | 买三 | 恒泰证券股份有限公司长春东南湖大路证券营业部 | 682.37 | 1.79 | | 买四 | 东方财富证券股份有限公司拉萨东环路第二证券营业部 | 668.82 | 152.64 | | 买五 | 机构专用 | 609.37 | 386.54 | | 卖一 | 中信证券股份有限公司上海静安区山西北路证券营业部 | 0.00 | 1299.69 | | 卖二 | 机构专用 | 2210.96 | 1000.87 | | 卖三 | 机构专用 | 1868.07 | 790.79 | | 卖四 | 开源证券股份有限公司榆林分公司 | 169.56 | 586.1 ...

Market Performance - Developed markets and emerging markets declined simultaneously, with MSCI Developed Markets down 1% and MSCI Emerging Markets down 4.4%, led by a significant drop in Chinese assets[1] - The Nasdaq Composite fell 3.5% and the S&P 500 dropped 1%, while the Dow Jones rebounded with a 1% increase on Friday due to a mild inflation report[1] Macroeconomic Indicators - U.S. retail sales fell 0.9% in January, marking the largest decline in nearly two years[2] - The services PMI dropped to 49.7 in February, the first time below 50 since January 2023, indicating contraction in the services sector[2] - Consumer confidence index fell from 105.3 in January to 98.2 in February, signaling expectations of economic slowdown[2] Inflation Concerns - U.S. CPI and PPI exceeded expectations in January, with PPI showing the largest increase since February 2023[2] - Concerns about inflation have been reignited due to Trump's tariff policies and government efficiency plans[2] Market Sentiment Shift - The narrative is shifting from "American exceptionalism" to concerns about whether the U.S. will remain an exception, with expectations of a potential 10-15% decline in U.S. equities if job growth weakens further[3] - U.S. Treasury yields have dropped below 4.3% amid economic concerns and increased bullish bets on U.S. debt[3] Chinese Market Dynamics - Chinese assets have corrected after six weeks of gains, with the Hang Seng Tech Index leading the decline due to technical corrections and external risks[3] - Trump's recent tariffs on Chinese goods have increased to a total of 20%, further impacting market sentiment[3] Investment Trends - Global equity and bond ETFs saw accelerated net inflows, with global equity ETFs netting $46.2 billion and bond ETFs $13.7 billion this week[6] - U.S. equity ETFs had the highest net inflow at $31.8 billion, while Chinese equity ETFs experienced the largest outflow at $3.25 billion[6] Sector Performance - Healthcare and communication sectors saw significant inflows, while technology experienced the largest outflows among sectors[6] - The financial sector shifted from net inflow to net outflow, indicating changing investor sentiment[6] Upcoming Events - Key upcoming events include the National People's Congress starting on March 4 and the U.S. employment report on March 7, which are expected to influence market direction[7]