汇川技术 公司是国内少数实现"工控→新能源车→机器人"跨行业技术复用的机电一体化平台型企业，在行业具备持续超越周期的α，2007-2024年营收和归 母净利润年化复合增速分别为38%和30%，超过工业自动化行业和可比公司增速。 国金证券股份有限公司姚遥,满在朋近期对汇川技术（300124）进行研究并发布了研究报告《工控&电梯筑基、电车贡献弹性，机器人构建远期空 间》，给予汇川技术买入评级，目标价81.1元。 1)新能源车业务：市占率稳步提升，规模效应有望释放经营弹性。24年公司国内乘用车电控产品份额上升至10.7%，第三方供应商中排名第一；24 年底公司境内外拥有超过80个定点项目预计将在25-26年实现SOP量产。24年公司新能源汽车实现营收160亿元，同比+70%，随着新产能投产，规 模效应有望进一步释放经营弹性，预计25-27年公司新能源车业务营收CAGR超30%。 2)机器人业务：工业机器人出货高增，人形机器人打开成长空间。凭借成本控制&渠道布局优势，工业机器人业务快速放量，24年实现营收11亿 元，同比+37%，24年国内市占率提升至9%，位居行业第三，同时积极研发人形机器人核心零部件，未来有望构建 ...

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 81.10 CNY per share based on a 40x PE valuation for 2025 [4]. Core Viewpoints - The company is a leading electromechanical integration platform in China, successfully leveraging technology across industries such as industrial control, new energy vehicles, and robotics, with a projected revenue and net profit CAGR of 38% and 30% from 2007 to 2024, respectively [15][22]. - The new energy vehicle segment is expected to see significant growth, with a projected revenue CAGR exceeding 30% from 2025 to 2027, driven by an increase in market share and operational flexibility [2]. - The industrial robotics business is also on a growth trajectory, with a projected CAGR of approximately 30% from 2025 to 2027, supported by cost control and channel advantages [2]. - The general automation business maintains a strong market position, with the company holding the top market shares in key product categories such as servo systems and low-voltage frequency converters [3]. - The mature businesses in rail transit and elevators are expected to grow steadily, providing stable cash flow to support strategic initiatives [3]. Summary by Sections Investment Logic - The company has achieved a unique position by integrating technology across industrial control, new energy vehicles, and robotics, which allows it to outperform industry cycles [15]. - The new energy vehicle business is projected to generate 16 billion CNY in revenue in 2024, a 70% year-on-year increase, with expectations for further growth as new production capacities come online [2]. - The industrial robot segment is experiencing rapid growth, with a revenue of 1.1 billion CNY in 2024, reflecting a 37% increase year-on-year [2]. General Automation Business - The company has solidified its leadership in the automation sector, with market shares of 28%, 19%, and 14% in core products for 2024, ranking first among domestic competitors [3]. - The automation industry is expected to recover slightly in 2025, following a downturn, with the company poised to benefit from this recovery [3]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 5.46 billion CNY, 6.67 billion CNY, and 7.83 billion CNY from 2025 to 2027, representing year-on-year growth rates of 27.5%, 22.0%, and 17.6%, respectively [4]. - The valuation is based on a robust competitive position built through technology reuse, strategic positioning, and organizational transformation [4].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected investment return exceeding 10% relative to the CSI 300 index over the next six months [4][5][14]. Core Insights - The company has been deeply engaged in industrial automation for nearly two decades and is recognized as a small giant in the field. It specializes in the research, production, and sales of industrial automation control products, including programmable logic controllers (PLCs), drive systems, human-machine interfaces, and smart devices [1][2]. - The company is the second-largest domestic player in the small PLC market, with a market share of 9.5% in 2024, reflecting a 2 percentage point increase from 2023. The sales revenue from PLC products reached 648 million yuan in 2024, a year-on-year growth of 21.09% [2]. - The company is actively expanding into the humanoid robot sector, developing key components such as hollow cup motors and frame-less torque motors, and has invested in related technologies and companies to enhance its capabilities in this area [3]. Financial Performance and Projections - The company's revenue for 2022, 2023, and 2024 was 1.335 billion yuan, 1.505 billion yuan, and 1.708 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 2.75%, 12.73%, and 13.5% [1]. - Revenue projections for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are estimated at 2.062 billion yuan, 2.490 billion yuan, and 3.009 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding net profits of 287 million yuan, 357 million yuan, and 445 million yuan [4][10]. - The current price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) is projected to be 31.9X for 2025, 25.6X for 2026, and 20.5X for 2027, indicating a favorable valuation trend [4]. Product Line and Market Position - The company has a leading position in the small PLC market and is expanding its product line to include medium and large PLCs, as well as other industrial control products, while also targeting high-end intelligent manufacturing sectors such as renewable energy and robotics [2]. - The revenue from drive systems has increased significantly, accounting for 47% of total revenue in 2024, with a revenue of 806 million yuan and a gross margin of 24.46% [2][11].

Group 1: Impact of Tariff Policies - The company's exposure to U.S. business is minimal, resulting in a limited impact from reciprocal tariff policies on its main operations [2] - Domestic companies may benefit from increased sales opportunities for import substitution products due to the tariff policies [2] Group 2: Wind Turbine Operation and Maintenance Services - The wind turbine operation and maintenance market has two main business models: independent service providers and those based on original equipment manufacturers [3] - The company primarily provides specialized product supply and debugging services to operation and maintenance companies, with increasing demand as the number of out-of-warranty turbines rises [3] Group 3: Inventory Management in Industrial Automation - The company employs a combination of regular inventory and on-demand procurement, similar to industry standards [4] - Inventory levels are gradually normalizing, but remain high due to market demand; significant reductions in average monthly inventory are expected in 2024 through improved management [4] Group 4: Software Sales Product Structure - The company primarily sells self-developed software products, including NetSCADA, iWorx, and industrial intelligent network management software [5] Group 5: Investor Interaction Summary - The investor interaction concluded at 12:30 PM, with no undisclosed material information leakage reported [6]

Group 1: Business Overview - The company operates in two main business segments: digitalization (including industrial electrical automation and industrial information technology) and green technology (including new energy storage and high-power power electronics) [2] - The digitalization segment aims to improve operational quality and sales gross margin while maintaining growth rates comparable to competitors [2][3] - The green technology segment focuses on cost reduction and efficiency improvement to navigate market price fluctuations while ensuring order delivery capabilities [3] Group 2: Market Challenges and Opportunities - The company faces challenges such as insufficient internal demand, intensified industry competition, and external environmental pressures [5][6] - Despite these challenges, the digitalization and green technology sectors are seen as vital growth areas, supported by national policies promoting artificial intelligence and low-carbon initiatives [5][6] - The company aims to leverage policy advantages and seek new growth points, including overseas business expansion, to achieve profitability [5] Group 3: Industry Performance and Trends - The industrial control industry is crucial for manufacturing transformation, with significant profit pressure across various sectors [6][7] - In 2024, traditional industries like coal and oil saw profit declines exceeding 50%, while sectors like chemical fibers and wind power equipment experienced growth rates above 20% [6] - The automation market is characterized by weak domestic demand and price declines, with a notable shift towards international markets [6][7] Group 4: Future Outlook - The company anticipates a recovery in market demand and infrastructure investment, but must address challenges in sales gross margin and market expansion for new products [7] - The new energy storage business faces competition from leading enterprises, while opportunities arise from the establishment of a new power system and market-oriented electricity trading [7]

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected investment return exceeding 10% relative to the CSI 300 index over the next six months [4][5][14]. Core Views - The company has been deeply engaged in industrial automation for nearly two decades and is recognized as a small giant in the industrial control sector. It specializes in the research, production, and sales of industrial automation control products, including programmable logic controllers (PLCs), drive systems, human-machine interfaces, and smart devices [1][2]. - The company is the second-largest domestic player in the small PLC market, with a market share of 9.5% in 2024, reflecting a 2 percentage point increase from 2023. The sales revenue from PLC products reached 648 million yuan in 2024, a year-on-year growth of 21.09% [2]. - The company is actively expanding into the humanoid robot sector, developing key components such as hollow cup motors and frameless torque motors, and has invested in related technologies and companies to enhance its capabilities in this area [3]. Financial Performance and Projections - The company's revenue for 2022, 2023, and 2024 is projected to be 1.335 billion yuan, 1.505 billion yuan, and 1.708 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 2.75%, 12.73%, and 13.5% [1][10]. - Revenue forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are estimated at 2.062 billion yuan, 2.490 billion yuan, and 3.009 billion yuan, with corresponding net profits of 287 million yuan, 357 million yuan, and 445 million yuan [4][10]. - The current price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) is projected to be 31.9X for 2025, 25.6X for 2026, and 20.5X for 2027, indicating a favorable valuation trend [4][10].

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is signaling a significant adjustment to its monetary policy framework in response to structural changes in the post-pandemic economy, focusing on a revised approach to "average inflation targeting" and "employment gap" concepts [1][2][3] Group 1: Monetary Policy Adjustments - The Fed is reassessing the policy framework established in 2020, particularly the definitions of "average inflation targeting" and "employment gap," to adapt to new economic conditions such as frequent supply chain shocks and rising real interest rates [1][2] - The new framework may downplay the "employment gap" concept, shifting focus to the structural health of the labor market rather than directly linking low unemployment to inflation risks [1][2] - The Fed is considering allowing temporary tolerance for inflation above 2% to balance employment and price stability goals in response to supply shocks [1][2] Group 2: Inflation and Interest Rates - Powell indicated that the U.S. may enter a new era of more frequent and prolonged supply shocks, leading to increased inflation volatility, with tariffs from the previous administration contributing to a rise in core PCE inflation to 2.2% [2] - The current federal funds rate is maintained in the range of 4.25%-4.5%, significantly higher than the near-zero levels of 2020, indicating a reduced capacity for rate cuts during economic downturns [2] - Powell emphasized the need for mechanisms to address potential risks, such as forward guidance and asset purchase tools, despite the assumption of a zero lower bound no longer being fundamental [2] Group 3: Policy Communication and Market Reactions - The Fed plans to improve its policy communication tools, particularly in conveying uncertainties and risks, learning from past misjudgments regarding inflation during the pandemic [3] - Powell's emphasis on "wait and see" reflects a cautious approach to decision-making, contrasting with pressures for rapid rate cuts from the previous administration [3] - Following Powell's remarks, global capital markets reacted with declines in tech stocks, rising bond yields, and increased volatility in the dollar index, indicating concerns over a normalization of high interest rates [4] Group 4: Investment Trends and Opportunities - Investors should focus on three key trends: a restructuring of asset allocation logic, increased policy risk due to tensions between the Fed and the White House, and investment opportunities related to supply chain localization and technological autonomy [4] - The shift from "crisis management" to "normal management" by the Fed aims to find a new balance between inflation volatility and economic resilience, with the outcome dependent on supply chain recovery and geopolitical developments [4] - The upcoming framework adjustments in August-September are anticipated to be pivotal in reshaping global asset pricing logic for 2025 [4]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The company reported a net profit of 4.285 billion yuan for 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 9.62%, while the net profit for Q1 2025 was 1.323 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 63.08%, exceeding expectations [4][5] - The company's revenue for 2024 was 37.04 billion yuan, up 21.77% year-on-year, and for Q1 2025, revenue reached 8.978 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 38.28% [4][5] - The company is strategically expanding into humanoid robotics, with core component R&D already initiated, which is expected to contribute to future growth [4] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 37.04 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 21.77%, and a net profit of 4.285 billion yuan, down 9.62% year-on-year [4][5] - For Q1 2025, the company reported a revenue of 8.978 billion yuan, up 38.28% year-on-year, and a net profit of 1.323 billion yuan, up 63.08% year-on-year [4][5] - The gross margin for 2024 was 28.7%, a decrease of 4.85 percentage points, while the net margin was 11.73%, down 3.97 percentage points [4] Business Segments - The general automation segment achieved sales of 15.24 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 1.36%, with Q1 2025 showing a significant growth of 29% [4] - The new energy segment reported sales of 16.64 billion yuan in 2024, up 67.76% year-on-year, and Q1 2025 revenue was approximately 3.9 billion yuan, reflecting a 66% increase [4] - The smart elevator segment faced challenges due to a weak real estate market, with 2024 sales of approximately 4.94 billion yuan, down 6.65% year-on-year [4] Strategic Initiatives - The company is focusing on internationalization, having established 18 subsidiaries and offices globally, achieving overseas revenue of approximately 2 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 17% [4] - The company is also advancing in digitalization and AI technologies, with plans to enhance its capabilities in these areas [4] - The formal entry into humanoid robotics is expected to create new growth avenues for the company [4]

Core Viewpoint - The company acknowledges ongoing challenges due to external environment, insufficient internal demand, and intensified industry competition, but sees opportunities in the digitalization and green transformation sectors, which are aligned with national policies and industry trends [1] Group 1: Company Performance Outlook - The company aims to leverage policy and sector advantages to promote digital business development through green initiatives, seeking to achieve synergy between digital and green operations [1] - The company is targeting operational quality improvement, increased efficiency, and exploring new growth points such as international business to navigate industry cycles and strive for profitability in 2025 [1] Group 2: Business Segments - The company's main business includes three segments: industrial electrical automation, industrial information technology, and new energy, providing comprehensive product solutions and technical services for automation and intelligent production scenarios [1] - The company offers system solutions for digitalization and intelligence in factories and infrastructure, and specialized equipment and systems for new energy power and energy storage [1]

Group 1: Business Performance and Strategy - The intelligent control business remains a key revenue source despite a decline in its revenue share in 2024 [3] - The company achieved a revenue of 478 million CNY in the renewable energy sector in 2024, accounting for 61.4% of total revenue [4] - The net profit attributable to shareholders in 2024 was 17.3751 million CNY, representing a year-on-year growth of 280.17% [4] Group 2: Dividend Policy - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 3 CNY per 10 shares, which corresponds to a payout ratio of 177.48% of the net profit attributable to shareholders for 2024 [5] - The dividend distribution decision considers financial status, shareholder interests, and market conditions, ensuring no adverse impact on future business expansion and R&D funding [5] Group 3: Future Development Plans - The company aims to enhance product competitiveness and expand into new energy, electrification, and intelligent sectors while exploring overseas markets [6] - There is a focus on developing components for robotics and expanding the application of intelligent control products across various industries [7] - The renewable energy business is expected to sustain its growth due to energy transition demands, policy support, and technological advancements [8]