行业 生猪日报 日期 2025 年 09 月 16 日 021-60635740 期货从业资格号：F3055047 021-60635732 yulanlan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0301101 021-60635727 期货从业资格号：F0230741 研究员：洪辰亮 021-60635572 hongchenliang@ccb.ccbfutures.co m 期货从业资格号：F3076808 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 农业产品研究团队 研究员：林贞磊 linzhenlei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 研究员：余兰兰 研究员：王海峰 wanghaifeng@ccb.ccbfutures.com 研究员：刘悠然 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 一、行情回顾与操作建议 数据来源：涌益，建信期货研究中心 生猪行情： 期货方面，15 日生猪主力 2511 合约低开后震荡走高，尾盘收阳，最高 13290 元/吨，最低 13120 元/吨，收盘报 13275 元/ ...

Core Insights - The pig futures market has been experiencing a unique phenomenon since 2025, where futures prices consistently remain lower than spot prices, indicating a market expectation of a loose supply of pigs [1] - Leading companies like Muyuan Foods have established sophisticated hedging systems to manage risks effectively in this environment [2][5] - The persistent price discount in futures reflects deep concerns about supply-demand mismatches in the market [3] Group 1: Market Dynamics - As of May 2025, the national breeding sow inventory reached 40.42 million, exceeding the normal holding level by 3.6% [3] - The self-breeding and self-raising model has been profitable for over a year, reducing the incentive for producers to cut back on production [3] - The current market shows a divergence where low-cost producers are barely profitable while high-cost producers are incurring losses, indicating a need for capacity reduction or a significant disease outbreak to change the situation [3] Group 2: Hedging Strategies - In a loose supply environment, hedging through futures is considered the optimal solution for breeding enterprises, although the low absolute value of futures prices complicates direct hedging [4] - Companies are advised to use a "futures price + basis" model for forward contracts to mitigate price risks while capturing potential gains from rising spot prices [4] - Guizhou Fuzhiyuan Technology Group has effectively utilized hedging strategies on both feed raw materials and pig products to manage price volatility risks [4][5] Group 3: Cost Management - The focus on cost reduction has become a central theme in the pig farming industry, with leading companies achieving significant profit growth through cost control measures [5][6] - Muyuan Foods emphasizes that every percentage point reduction in breeding costs can lead to substantial profit increases, highlighting the importance of internal efficiency improvements [6] - Fuzhiyuan Group aims to maintain cost competitiveness by adjusting hedging ratios based on market conditions to secure future sales profits [6] Group 4: Innovative Risk Management Tools - The flexibility of options tools is highlighted, allowing companies to tailor their hedging strategies according to specific needs [7] - Combining futures and options can provide broader protection against price declines while reducing margin requirements [7][8] - Smaller producers face challenges in directly participating in futures hedging, and are encouraged to monitor futures prices to adjust production plans accordingly [9] Group 5: Support for Small Producers - Fuzhiyuan Group's "1050" project aims to enhance the competitiveness of small producers by sharing expertise and utilizing futures tools to mitigate price risks [9] - The collaboration with insurance companies to offer "insurance + futures" solutions provides a more accessible hedging option for small producers [9]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [3] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights that the agricultural sector is experiencing a recovery, with specific segments such as the pig and beef industries showing signs of improvement. Cost reduction and efficiency enhancement are key drivers for performance improvement in the pig sector, while the beef sector is witnessing a rebound from a cyclical low [6][7][47]. Summary by Sections 1. Pig Industry - The pig sector has shown significant improvement in performance, with 15 listed pig companies achieving a revenue of 196.98 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 19%. The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 16.33 billion yuan, up 625% year-on-year [9]. - The average pig price has been under pressure, dropping to a low of 13.96 yuan/kg in June 2025. However, leading companies like Muyuan and Wens continue to maintain high profitability per head due to their efficiency advantages [15][42]. - Recommendations include focusing on low-cost, high-certainty leaders such as Muyuan and Wens, as well as high-growth small pig companies like Shennong Group and Juxing Agriculture [7][43]. 2. Beef Industry - The beef sector is experiencing a cyclical recovery, with live cattle prices increasing significantly since mid-February 2025. As of September 8, 2025, the prices for fattened bulls, calves, and cull cows have risen by 2.39, 8.33, and 3.18 yuan/kg respectively [47]. - The report notes that the overall beef market is supported by a trend towards protein upgrading, which is expected to continue despite economic fluctuations [57]. 3. Animal Health Sector - The animal health sector is stabilizing, with a focus on the development of pet business. The rapid release of pet vaccines is anticipated to enhance valuations across companies [7]. 4. Seed Industry - The seed market is shifting from quantity to quality competition, with a focus on superior varieties as the core competitiveness of seed companies. The report emphasizes the importance of resource integration and mergers in the seed industry [7]. Companies with strong variety reserves, such as Dabeinong and Longping High-Tech, are expected to benefit [7].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The swine industry is undergoing significant policy transformation, focusing on capacity regulation and protecting farmers' rights while promoting innovation [5][6] - The latest pig price is 13.52 CNY/kg, with a slight decrease of 0.35 CNY/kg from the previous period, indicating potential short-term price declines due to policy-driven weight reductions [5][15] - The report suggests that if pig prices continue to fall, further market support and capacity control measures may be implemented [5][15] - The overall profitability of listed pig companies has shown significant growth, and with the expected recovery in pig prices and declining costs, profitability is anticipated to remain strong [6][15] Summary by Sections 1. Swine Industry - The latest pig price is 13.52 CNY/kg, with an average weight of 128.32 kg and a 15 kg piglet price of 394 CNY/head [5][15] - The Ministry of Agriculture will hold a meeting with 25 major pig companies to discuss capacity regulation measures [6][15] - Future growth stocks will focus on technological innovation and farmer interests, with companies like DeKang Agriculture and leading pig farming companies such as Muyuan and Wens recommended for investment [6][15] 2. Poultry Industry - The chicken industry faces a "high capacity, weak consumption" contradiction, with the latest chick price at 3.15 CNY/bird and broiler price at 3.43 CNY/kg [7][16] - The report highlights the importance of integrated enterprises and contract farming to increase market share [7][16] - Key investment targets include high-quality imported breeding stock leaders and full-chain leaders like Yisheng and Shengnong Development [7][16] 3. Feed Industry - The report recommends Haida Group due to improved management and increased capacity utilization, expecting significant growth [8][17] - The prices of various fish species have shown mixed trends, with some experiencing declines [8][17] 4. Pet Industry - The pet industry shows a significant increase in sales growth compared to July, with leading brands maintaining strong positions [9][20] - The competitive landscape is characterized by four leading brands, with potential risks for those unable to keep pace with growth [10][22] - The report emphasizes the importance of domestic brands like Guibao and Zhongchong, which are expected to perform well in the future [10][22] 5. Agricultural Products - The USDA's September report is bearish, with an increase in soybean planting area and a decrease in yield expectations [11][23] - The report highlights the importance of monitoring US-China trade negotiations and their impact on agricultural prices [11][23] - The agricultural sector is viewed as undervalued, with potential for significant returns as the industry transitions through various stages of recovery [11][23] 6. Market and Price Situation - The agricultural index increased by 4.81% over the past week, with the livestock sector performing particularly well [24][29] - The report notes that the CPI has been affected by food prices, which have seen a significant decline [50]

Group 1 - The agricultural sector saw a significant rise on the 15th, with notable performance from pork stocks, including companies like Delisi (002330) and Aonong Biological (603363) hitting the daily limit, while Lihua (300761) and Tiankang Biological (002100) rose over 8% [1] - The average weight of pigs sold last week was 128.32 kg per head, with a slowdown in the selling pace due to falling prices and cooler weather, which may lead to a temporary rebound in pig prices [1] - Since May, piglet prices have been declining as the corresponding selling time falls into the off-season next year, leading to decreased purchasing enthusiasm [1] Group 2 - Current pig prices have led to losses for companies with poor cost structures, prompting them to reduce production capacity, while supply pressure remains significant [2] - If the industry can orderly adjust capacity, a decrease in the number of breeding sows is expected, potentially raising the mid-term profitability of the industry [2] - After a period of adjustment, valuations of pig farming companies are at a bottom range, with leading companies still achieving good profitability and improving balance sheets [2] - The industry is expected to stabilize at a low point, with leading firms benefiting from cost advantages and increasing market share despite supply pressures [2] - The pig farming industry still has a promising mid-term profit margin, with many companies having expanded capacity poorly post-African swine fever, leading to significant cost variances [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The spot price of live pigs is expected to adjust weakly and fluctuately. The supply of live pigs is likely to increase gradually by December, and it is difficult for pig prices to rise significantly and continuously under sufficient supply. If the price weakness continues, a negative cycle may form, and the pig price is expected to rise at the end of the year. One can consider conducting a reverse spread of the 11 - 01 contract at an appropriate time [1]. Summary by Directory 1. Futures End - **主力合约基差情况**: Affected by the weak performance of the spot market, the futures price fluctuated weakly this week. On September 12, 2025, the benchmark base difference of the main contract was 245 yuan/ton, compared with 745 yuan/ton on September 5 [2][3]. - **各合约价格变化情况**: The prices of far - month contracts fluctuated and adjusted [5]. - **月间价差变化**: The inter - month spread fluctuated and adjusted [8][11]. 2. Spot End - **猪价与宰量**: This week, the slaughter volume increased steadily, and the pig price fluctuated weakly [14]. - **区域价差**: The regional price difference was relatively reasonable [16]. - **肥标价差**: The spread between fat and standard pigs fluctuated weakly, which would increase the enthusiasm of farmers to reduce weight and sell pigs [18]. - **鲜销与毛白价差**: The terminal consumption was relatively stable year - on - year [20]. - **相关产品比价与鲜冻价差**: The cost - performance of pork was average. The spread between fresh and frozen No. 2 meat weakened, and the cost - performance of frozen products was lower than that of fresh products [22]. - **养殖利润**: The self - breeding and self - raising profit still existed, while the profit of purchasing piglets for fattening was slightly in the red [24]. - **出栏体重**: The average slaughter weight increased this week [26]. 3. Production Capacity End - **能繁母猪存栏量**: According to the Ministry of Agriculture, the national inventory of fertile sows was 40.42 million at the end of July, with a month - on - month and year - on - year increase of 0.0%. According to Yongyi Consulting, the inventory of fertile sows in its sample 1 increased by 0.02% month - on - month in August, compared with 0.14% in the previous month. According to My steel, the inventory of fertile sows in its sample large - scale enterprises decreased by 0.83% month - on - month in August, compared with an increase of 0.01% in the previous month [28]. - **母猪淘汰情况**: The price of culled sows weakened this week. The slaughter volume of culled sows increased month - on - month in August, and the enthusiasm for capacity reduction in the market increased [30]. - **母猪生产效率与新生健仔数**: In August, the number of healthy newborn piglets increased by 0.15% month - on - month (the previous value was + 0.06%), corresponding to an overall fluctuating increase in the number of slaughtered live pigs in February next year [32]. - **母猪、仔猪补栏积极性**: This week, the price of 15 - kg piglets was stable with a weak trend, and the price of 50 - kg binary sows was weak [34]. 4. Slaughter End - **屠宰量与屠宰利润等**: The slaughter volume continued to increase month - on - month. In July, the slaughter volume of designated enterprises was 31.66 million, a month - on - month increase of 5.3% and a year - on - year increase of 30.4%. The frozen product market will gradually enter the de - stocking stage, and its impact on pig prices will change from positive to neutral and bearish [36]. 5. Import End - In July 2025, the pork import volume was about 87,600 tons, a decrease of about 2,400 tons compared with the previous month. Currently, the scale of pork imports is limited, and its impact on domestic pig prices is relatively limited [39].

Core Viewpoint - New Wufeng's stock price has shown significant growth this year, with a notable increase in revenue and net profit, indicating a positive trend in the company's performance and market position [2][3]. Company Overview - New Wufeng, established on June 26, 2001, and listed on June 9, 2004, is located in Changsha, Hunan Province. The company primarily engages in pig farming, meat sales, and feed processing [2]. - The revenue composition of New Wufeng includes: 84.21% from pig sales, 7.39% from slaughtering and refrigeration, 4.31% from fresh meat, 1.78% from trade and others, 1.60% from frozen meat, and 0.71% from feed [2]. Stock Performance - As of September 15, New Wufeng's stock price increased by 12.10% year-to-date, with recent gains of 6.27% over the last five trading days, 8.93% over the last 20 days, and 16.03% over the last 60 days [2]. - On September 15, the stock price reached 6.95 CNY per share, with a trading volume of 2.23 billion CNY and a turnover rate of 3.21%, resulting in a total market capitalization of 87.66 billion CNY [1]. Financial Performance - For the first half of 2025, New Wufeng reported a revenue of 3.688 billion CNY, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 14.08%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 45.234 million CNY, marking a substantial increase of 118.32% [2]. Shareholder Information - As of June 30, 2025, New Wufeng had 76,100 shareholders, a decrease of 2.13% from the previous period, with an average of 13,354 circulating shares per shareholder, an increase of 2.17% [2]. - The top ten circulating shareholders include various ETFs and investment funds, with notable changes in holdings among major shareholders [3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook on the pig farming industry, emphasizing the importance of the "anti-involution" process and the potential for value reassessment of quality pig enterprises [4][5]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the recent acceleration in pig price declines may lead to increased regulatory measures, urging investors to focus on the value reassessment of leading pig farming companies. The report suggests that the industry is nearing the end of its current production cycle, with a high probability of production capacity stabilizing and declining in the second half of 2025 [4][5]. - The report also notes that the overall performance of the agricultural sector is improving, with the Shenwan Agricultural, Forestry, Animal Husbandry, and Fishery Index rising by 4.8% compared to a 1.4% increase in the CSI 300 Index [4][5]. Summary by Sections Pig Farming - The report indicates that the average selling price of external three-yuan pigs was 13.27 yuan/kg as of September 14, 2025, reflecting a week-on-week decline of 2.5%. The average selling price of weaned piglets was 294 yuan/head, down 29 yuan/head, marking a new low for the year [4][5]. - The report emphasizes the expectation of upgraded production capacity regulation, suggesting that the industry is entering a phase of stable and high-quality development, which could enhance profitability and stability for quality pig enterprises [4][5]. Poultry Farming - For broiler chickens, the report notes a return to weak pricing across the industry, with the average selling price of white feather broiler chicks at 3.26 yuan/chick, down 1.21% week-on-week. The average selling price of white feather broiler meat was 3.45 yuan/kg, also down 1.15% [4][5]. - The report highlights the seasonal rebound in the yellow feather chicken market, with prices rebounding nearly 45% from the lowest point in late June [4][5]. Pet Food - The report provides insights into the pet food market, indicating that online sales in August 2025 reached 2.34 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8% and a month-on-month increase of 19%. Cumulatively, sales from January to August 2025 totaled 19.21 billion yuan, up 11% year-on-year [4][5]. - Specific companies such as Guai Bao Pet and Zhong Chong have shown significant growth in their online sales, with Guai Bao Pet's GMV increasing by 15% year-on-year in August [4][5].

Core Viewpoint - The report from CITIC Securities emphasizes the importance of focusing on sectors with growth potential as inflation improves, suggesting that fundamental factors may regain attention as market valuations stabilize and enter a slow bull phase [1]. Group 1: Market Conditions - Recent months have seen investors becoming less attentive to fundamental factors, but this may change as market valuations have completed their correction [1]. - The slow bull market requires both leading sectors and overall fundamental support, with a need to reverse deflationary trends to attract foreign investment in Chinese assets [1]. Group 2: Sector Focus - Key sectors to watch include AI, pig farming, new energy, new consumption, innovative pharmaceuticals, non-ferrous metals, basic chemicals, and non-bank financials [1]. - The ongoing market consolidation phase necessitates attention to sector rotation between high and low performers [1].

Group 1: Market Overview - The current market indicates increased pressure in the bond market, with risks surpassing the influences of fundamentals and liquidity [2][13] - The bond market adjustment is largely seen as a preparation for a potential bull market around the end of 2024 [2][13] - Observations are needed for signals indicating a turning point in market sentiment, particularly regarding deposit rates and credit spreads [13] Group 2: Company Analysis - Jianfa Hecheng (建发合诚) - Jianfa Hecheng is positioned for growth under the Jianfa Group, with expected net profits of 122 million, 140 million, and 160 million yuan for 2025-2027, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 27.4%, 14.7%, and 14.3% respectively [2][19] - The company is enhancing its construction business through collaboration with its major shareholder, with significant associated transaction amounts projected for the coming years [14][15] - The shift towards urban renewal and business extension is seen as a key opportunity for growth in the current market environment [15] Group 3: Industry Trends - Cloud Computing - The cloud computing market is witnessing a divergence in capital expenditure (Capex) expectations, with major cloud providers expected to collectively exceed 350 billion yuan in FY25, marking a 54% year-on-year increase [16][17] - Emerging cloud computing firms are benefiting from high growth in remaining performance obligations (RPO), with Oracle reporting a 359% year-on-year increase in RPO [17][20] - The competition landscape is evolving with the introduction of ASIC chips, which are becoming increasingly relevant in AI applications [18][20] Group 4: Automotive Industry Insights - The automotive sector is experiencing a shift towards high-end and intelligent electric vehicle manufacturing, with companies like Jianghuai Automobile collaborating with tech giants like Huawei [25][27] - The company anticipates significant revenue growth with the launch of its high-end brand, aiming for a notable increase in sales volume in the coming years [27] - The overall automotive market is seeing fluctuations in sales and material costs, with a focus on maintaining competitive positioning amid changing consumer demands [32][34]