Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report anticipates that the price of live pigs will continue to decline. Although the price has temporarily stopped falling due to the price - holding sentiment of breeders and a small amount of secondary fattening and frozen - product storage, the supply pressure from breeders still exists. It is recommended to wait and see until the price stabilizes [2][22]. 3. Summary by Section 2. Supply Situation Analysis In October, the出栏 plans of large - scale breeding enterprises generally increased, and the market supply showed an upward trend. Breeders were still actively selling, and some enterprises accelerated the selling rhythm to avoid future risks. Slaughterhouses had smooth procurement, with sufficient pig supplies, keeping the pork supply loose [2][22]. 3. Demand Situation Analysis Terminal consumption weakened significantly, with a decline in household and catering procurement demand. The operating rate and slaughter volume of slaughterhouses decreased simultaneously, and the sales speed of白条 slowed down, continuously constraining the pork price [2][22]. 4. Cost - Profit Analysis The report does not provide specific content on cost - profit analysis other than showing relevant profit charts. 5. Market Outlook After continuous price drops, the price - holding sentiment of breeders emerged, and a small amount of secondary fattening and frozen - product storage provided support, causing the price to temporarily stop falling. However, the selling pressure of breeders remained, and the live - pig price was expected to decline further. It is advisable to wait and see until the price stabilizes [2][22].

Core Viewpoint - The company, Muyuan Foods (牧原股份), announced on October 13 that its complete cost of pig farming for September 2025 is expected to be around 11.6 yuan/kg [1] Group 1 - The company's projected cost for pig farming in September 2025 is 11.6 yuan/kg [1]

Core Viewpoint - The current pig prices are weak both in reality and expectations, combined with policy drivers, indicating that the pig farming industry is likely to initiate capacity reduction [1][2]. Group 1: Industry Overview - The pig farming industry is experiencing a rapid shift towards losses, with average profits for large-scale farms dropping to -57 CNY per pig in August, down from 21 CNY in July, and for smallholders, the average profit fell to -109 CNY per pig from 6 CNY in July [2]. - The price of fat pigs is nearing 11 CNY per kilogram, while the price for 7 kg weaned piglets has dropped below 200 CNY per head, leading to a comprehensive loss across the industry [1][2]. - The number of breeding sows has slightly decreased, with a total of 40.38 million sows reported at the end of August, a reduction of 40,000 from the previous month, indicating a stabilization year-on-year [2]. Group 2: Price and Profit Trends - In August, the average price for market pigs fell to 14.23 CNY per kilogram, a decrease of 4.1% month-on-month and 31% year-on-year, while the average price for piglets was 33.63 CNY per kilogram, down 5.9% month-on-month and 24% year-on-year [2]. - The industry is expected to see further price declines, with fat pig and piglet prices having reached their lowest points of the year, suggesting a potential for continued market-driven capacity reduction [1]. Group 3: Investment Recommendations - The pig farming sector is viewed positively, with expectations that quality companies will continue to generate profits and increase dividend rates, driving long-term performance and valuation improvements [3]. - The policy and market dynamics are expected to facilitate capacity reduction in the pig farming industry, which will support long-term performance improvements in the sector [3]. - Relevant investment targets include Muyuan Foods (002714), Wens Foodstuff Group (300498), Shennong Group (605296), and Juxing Agriculture (603477) [3].

Core Insights - The report indicates a downward trend in pig prices due to increased supply and policy guidance, leading to accelerated capacity reduction in the industry [1][7][18] - The overall agricultural sector has shown a positive performance with a 1.18% increase week-on-week, while the pig farming segment is experiencing significant losses [11][36] Pig Farming Data Tracking - The number of breeding sows has slightly decreased, with a 0.33% month-on-month decline in September [19] - Pig prices have dropped significantly, with the average price on October 9 being 11.89 CNY/kg, reflecting a week-on-week decrease of 6.16% [28][29] - The profitability of pig farming remains negative, with losses of 152.15 CNY per head for self-bred pigs and 301.04 CNY per head for purchased piglets as of October 10 [36] Poultry Farming Data Tracking - The poultry sector is facing challenges due to outbreaks of avian influenza, but there are investment opportunities in the white-feathered chicken market [37] - The average price for white-feathered meat chickens was 6.88 CNY/kg on October 10, with a slight week-on-week decrease of 0.15% [40] Animal Health Data Tracking - The demand for animal health products is expected to rebound, driven by an increase in livestock numbers and new product launches [47] - Significant growth in vaccine approvals has been noted, with various companies making advancements in vaccine development [47] Seed Industry Data Tracking - The prices of key agricultural commodities such as wheat and soybean meal have increased, indicating a positive trend in the seed industry [50] - The report emphasizes the importance of strengthening food security and promoting the commercialization of biological breeding [50] Pet Industry Data Tracking - Pet food exports have decreased by 15.5% year-on-year, amounting to 834 million CNY in August 2025 [56] - Domestic sales of pet food are growing rapidly, with a combined growth rate of 3% across major e-commerce platforms in September [57]

Core Viewpoint - The swine breeding industry is experiencing dual catalysts from both fundamental and policy aspects, enhancing the motivation for capacity reduction [1] Industry Summary - As of the end of August, the national breeding sow inventory stands at 40.38 million heads, reflecting a month-on-month decrease of 0.1% and a reduction of 340,000 heads from the peak at the end of last year [1] - Major production areas are facing an average loss of 74 yuan per head, with the loss margin widening [1] - The occurrence of African swine fever in Vietnam and Guangxi, combined with signals from the National Development and Reform Commission regarding capacity reduction policies, has significantly increased market-driven capacity reduction motivation [1] - Current market valuations for breeding listed companies are at historical low levels, highlighting long-term investment value [1] Company Summary - The Livestock ETF (159865) tracks the China Securities Livestock Index (930707), which selects listed companies involved in livestock feed, vaccines, breeding, and slaughtering to reflect the overall performance of the livestock industry [1] - This index focuses on upstream enterprises in the agricultural and food supply chain, demonstrating strong industry representativeness [1]

Group 1 - Recent capital inflow into the breeding sector, with the breeding ETF (159865) seeing over 970 million yuan in net inflows in the last 10 trading days, and over 10 million shares subscribed today [1] - On September 16, the National Development and Reform Commission held a meeting signaling a clear policy for reducing pig production capacity [1] - Pacific Securities indicates that both the fattening and breeding segments of the industry have turned from profit to loss, enhancing the market-driven capacity reduction [1] Group 2 - The breeding ETF (159865) tracks the China Securities Livestock Breeding Index, with approximately 60% exposure to "pigs," presenting investment opportunities for interested investors [1]

行业 生猪日报 021-60635732 yulanlan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0301101 021-60635727 期货从业资格号：F0230741 ＃summary＃ 日期 2025 年 10 月 13 日 021-60635740 期货从业资格号：F3055047 研究员：洪辰亮 021-60635572 hongchenliang@ccb.ccbfutures.co m 期货从业资格号：F3076808 021-60635570 期货从业资格号：F03094925 农业产品研究团队 研究员：林贞磊 linzhenlei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 研究员：余兰兰 研究员：王海峰 wanghaifeng@ccb.ccbfutures.com 研究员：刘悠然 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 请阅读正文后的声明 期货方面，10 日生猪主力 2601 合约小幅低开后冲高回落震荡走低，尾盘收 阴，最高 12310 元/吨，最低 12130 元/吨，收盘报 12140 元/吨，较昨日跌 0.78%， 指数总持仓增加 17324 手至 27 ...

消费策略&组合配置：Q3 业绩前瞻与全年展望 20251012 摘要 市场避险情绪虽现，但风险资产下跌幅度及 VIX 指数均未达极端水平， 反映市场应对经验增强，对进一步谈判和关税调整仍存期待。 消费板块进入相对顺风期，内部结构性变化明显。外需型消费受美联储 政策及贸易摩擦影响，景气度青黄不接；内需型消费则受益于政策推动 预期及价格水平回暖。 2025 年第四季度，内需消费有望迎来风格与政策驱动下的配置机会， 新消费成长标的和转型红利标的均可能表现突出，双十一期间业绩观察 至关重要。 性价比餐饮受益于成本下降和扩张周期，单店盈利改善，开店速度有望 超预期增长，当前估值合理，是配置良机。 AI 应用领域，壹网壹创通过困境反转和 SaaS 化转型实现增长，吉宏股 份通过 AI 选品提升效率，非美地区市场表现良好，有望提升商业估值。 白酒市场双节动销整体下滑，但宴席端表现较好，大众宴席价位产品占 优。消费者对价格敏感度降低，价格回落激发购买欲望。动销拐点逐渐 显现，可适当考虑左侧布局。 家电行业整体稳健，清洁能源板块亮眼。石头科技作为清洁赛道全球龙 头，积极拓展出海业务，有望扩张成为平台型公司。 Q&A 如何看待当 ...

Core Viewpoint - The domestic pig market is experiencing a downward trend in prices, with recent data indicating significant declines in both futures and spot markets, leading to losses for pig farming operations [1][2][3]. Price Trends - As of October 10, the futures market price for live pigs has dropped to 11,320 yuan/ton, down over 40% from the peak of 19,010 yuan/ton in August last year [1]. - The average selling price for live pigs has fallen below 12 yuan/kg, marking a near historical low [1]. - In September, major companies reported declines in average selling prices, with TianKang Biological at 12.17 yuan/kg (down 4.85% month-on-month), DaBeiNong at 12.91 yuan/kg (down from 13.67 yuan/kg), and New Hope at 12.89 yuan/kg (down 4.8% month-on-month and 31.47% year-on-year) [2]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The supply side has seen concentrated pressure release, with forced sales of larger pigs contributing to a "stampede effect" in the market [3]. - Despite some supply-side capacity reduction efforts, the market remains imbalanced, with excess supply continuing to suppress prices [7][8]. - The average price for lean meat pigs has dropped to 11.69 yuan/kg, down 34.72% year-on-year [2]. Industry Losses - The pig farming industry is entering a phase of increased volume but declining prices, leading to micro-profit or loss situations [4]. - Current losses per head for self-breeding operations are approximately 135.62 yuan, while losses for purchased piglet operations reach 295.65 yuan [4]. - The theoretical profit for self-breeding and piglet fattening has shown a downward trend since mid-August, with losses reported at 206.91 yuan/head and 409.19 yuan/head, respectively [4]. Capacity Reduction Efforts - The effectiveness of capacity reduction measures has been limited, with the number of breeding sows only slightly decreasing while still remaining at normal levels [7][8]. - Despite some large enterprises reducing production, many smaller farms have not yet begun to cut back, contributing to ongoing supply excess [7]. Seasonal Demand - The recent National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival, typically a peak demand period, did not meet expectations due to adverse weather conditions affecting consumption [9]. - Analysts predict that the market will remain in a bottoming phase, with potential for slight recovery in November as seasonal demand increases [9][10].

近日，A股生猪养殖板块多家上市公司陆续披露2025年9月份销售简报。数据显示，行业延续以量补价 态势，头部企业普遍通过扩大出栏规模对冲猪价下行压力。 农文旅产业振兴研究院常务副院长袁帅对《证券日报》记者表示："从生猪行业出栏量与四季度猪肉消 费情况来看，供应的增加与消费的增长之间将呈现动态平衡。综合来看，四季度生猪行业走势大概率会 呈现供需博弈的状态，价格波动幅度可能相对有限，但整体市场活跃度会有所提升。" 价格方面，9月份生猪销售均价同比下跌，导致"量增价减"效应显著。牧原股份均价12.88元/公斤，同比 下跌30.94%，销售收入同比下降22.46%；温氏股份均价13.18元/公斤，同比下跌30.81%，收入同比下降 15.16%；新希望商品猪销售均价12.89元/公斤，同比下降31.47%，销售收入同比减少23.82%；唐人神销 售收入同比下降4.17%，环比下降6.28%。 面对行业压力，企业战略应对呈现分化。牧原股份上调2025年仔猪出栏量预测区间至1200万头-1450万 头，强化仔猪业务布局；温氏股份依托肉鸡业务增长，发挥多元化经营优势；新希望聚焦"成本控制与 效率提升"，通过精细化管理对冲价格 ...