数据来源: Mysteel、云沥青、Wind 免责 s 加安期货 沥青早报 研究中心能化团队 2025/12/16 | | 指标 | 11/13 | 12/9 | 12/11 | 12/12 | 12/15 | 日度变化 | 周度变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 基差&月差 | 山东基差(+80)(非京博) | -9 | -43 | -60 | -42 | -23 | -11 | -10 | | | 华东基差(镇江库) | 121 | 97 | 20 | 18 | 17 | -1 | -80 | | | 华南县差(佛山库) | 101 | 17 | 0 | -32 | -33 | -1 | -50 | | | 01-03 | -43 | -35 | -28 | -39 | -30 | 9 | 5 | | | 02-03 | -27 | -20 | -13 | -18 | -19 | -1 | | | | 03-06 | -37 | -42 | -39 | -40 | -34 | 6 | 8 | | 用 | BU主力合约 ...

石化央企迅速行动认真落实会议精神 12月10日至11日中央经济工作会议在北京举行，习近平总书记出席会议并发表重要讲话。连日来，石油 和化工行业认真学习领会会议精神，切实把思想和行动统一到党中央对形势的科学判断和对经济工作的 决策部署上来，以实际行动和工作成效落实好会议精神。 中国石油：提出五点要求 12月12日，中国石油集团党组召开会议，传达学习贯彻中央经济工作会议精神、中央政治局会议精神和 习近平总书记在党外人士座谈会上的重要讲话精神，党组书记、董事长戴厚良主持并提出工作要求。要 深入学习贯彻习近平总书记重要讲话精神和中央经济工作会议精神，坚持稳中求进工作总基调，自觉把 公司发展放到党和国家工作全局中谋划，加快建设世界一流企业。要切实把思想和行动统一到党中央对 经济工作的部署上来，深入领会党中央对经济形势的科学判断，优化完善公司发展策略。要坚决贯彻明 年经济工作部署，落实能源强国建设规划纲要，扎实编制集团公司"十五五"规划。要统筹发展和安全， 加强法治企业建设，系统谋划"十五五"依法合规治企专项规划。要狠抓执行落实，坚决完成全年目标任 务，实现"十四五"圆满收官；精心抓好明年一季度工作落实，确保"十五五"良 ...

大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 多空关注 3 基本面数据 4 5 价差数据 库存数据 燃料油： 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 2025-12-16燃料油早报 利多： 1. 俄罗斯燃油出口限制 2. 美俄会谈取消，对俄石油相关企业发起制裁 利空： 行情驱动：供应端受地缘风险影响与需求中性共振 风险点：OPEC+内部团结破坏；战争风险升级 1.需求端乐观仍待验证 2.上游端原油承压受挫 每日期货行情 1、基本面：由于套利经济性不佳，自西方市场抵运至新加坡的低硫燃料油到货量预计在12月份出现三个月以来 的首次下降。但贸易人士称，近期的一些租船活动可能会导致1月份的流入量再次反弹；欧洲市场供应依然充足， 预计到年底前将进一步承压，因为欧洲炼油厂检修季的结束，导致过剩的供应 ...

Report Information - Report Title: Asphalt Daily Report [1] - Date: December 16, 2025 [2] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - Oil prices lack support, and asphalt has no obvious driving force, expected to continue oscillating [6] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Futures Market: BU2602 opened at 2941 yuan/ton, closed at 2963 yuan/ton, with a high of 2989 yuan/ton, a low of 2931 yuan/ton, a rise of 0.54%, and a trading volume of 211,000 lots; BU2603 opened at 2970 yuan/ton, closed at 2982 yuan/ton, with a high of 3005 yuan/ton, a low of 2951 yuan/ton, a rise of 0.74%, and a trading volume of 67,300 lots [6] - Spot Market: Asphalt spot prices in North China rose slightly, those in Shandong and Sichuan-Chongqing regions fell significantly, and prices in other regions remained stable. Rigid demand for asphalt continued to decline, negatively affecting market sentiment [6] - Supply: After the resumption of asphalt production at Guangzhou Petrochemical in South China, the operating rate is expected to remain stable, while in Shandong, there is no new resumption plan after the switch to producing residual oil, and the operating rate is expected to decline slightly [6] - Demand: Cold snaps will continue to affect most parts of China in the next ten days, with widespread rain and snow in central and eastern regions. Although the temperature will gradually rise after the 14th, demand is unlikely to be significantly supported due to seasonal factors [6] 2. Industry News - Shandong Market: The mainstream transaction price of 70A grade asphalt was 2850 - 3370 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton from the previous working day. The increase in spot resource circulation and the decline in demand led to price cuts by refineries and traders [7] - East China Market: The mainstream transaction price of 70A grade asphalt was 3100 - 3220 yuan/ton, remaining stable from the previous working day. The futures price rose, but the spot price lacked upward momentum, and the high ex-factory price of road transportation limited purchasing enthusiasm [7] 3. Data Overview - The report presents multiple data charts, including those on South China asphalt spot price, Shandong asphalt basis, asphalt daily operating rate, Shandong asphalt comprehensive profit, asphalt cracking spread, asphalt social inventory, asphalt manufacturer inventory, and asphalt warehouse receipts [11][12][13]

Group 1: Bond Market Analysis - In 2025, the bond market sentiment peaked and then declined, with government bond futures entering a downward channel after reaching the 250-day moving average [1] - The basis of government bond futures in 2025 has generally shifted downward, showing structural differentiation due to the combined effects of declining coupon rates and diversified market participants [1][2] - The cross-period price difference of government bond futures has shown a negative correlation with the bond market, indicating an evolution in investor trading strategies towards forward-looking layouts [1][2] Group 2: Institutional Behavior in Bond Futures - The holding volume of government bond futures has significantly increased in 2025, reflecting market expansion, but different maturity contracts have shown differentiated growth driven by allocation and arbitrage demands [2] - New funds are increasingly concentrated in T and TL contracts, which have significant liquidity advantages and longer durations, to meet the core needs of large funds for efficient portfolio duration adjustment and risk hedging [2] Group 3: Profitability Strategies in Bond Futures - Various strategies in the bond market exhibit rotation characteristics influenced by market volatility and basis changes [3] - In Q1 2025, low basis conditions favor the use of T/TL contracts for hedging strategies to effectively mitigate losses [3] - By Q4 2025, the bond market enters a fluctuating environment requiring more refined operations, with short-term curve strategies or cross-period strategies presenting gaming opportunities [3] Group 4: Energy Sector Insights - In December 2025, international oil prices experienced fluctuations, initially rising due to positive signals from U.S.-China trade relations and concerns over Russian supply, but later declined due to oversupply worries [4][10] - As of December 10, 2025, WTI crude oil prices were $58.46 per barrel, down 1.65% from the November average [4][10] - OPEC+ decided to increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in December but announced a pause in production increases for Q1 2026, which may alleviate concerns over oversupply [12] Group 5: Automotive Industry Outlook - The heavy truck industry is expected to maintain stability supported by demand from replacement policies, with total sales projected to reach 720,000 units in 2026 [15] - The new energy heavy truck segment is anticipated to perform exceptionally well in 2025, while natural gas heavy trucks still have room for market penetration [15] Group 6: AI and Technology Developments - The release of GPT-5.2 by OpenAI marks a significant advancement in capabilities, particularly in professional knowledge work and enterprise applications, with notable performance improvements in various tasks [7] - Alibaba has established a C-end division to create a super app for AI technology, integrating various services to enhance user engagement [8] - The approval of H200 AI chip exports to China is expected to boost domestic training capabilities, although it may have limited impact on the application of domestic AI chips in inference scenarios [9]

Macro - The Biden administration's enhanced healthcare plan has become a political tool for both parties, significantly impacting the capital market. Currently, only three departments have reached a budget agreement, accounting for 11% of the total budget, while the remaining nine departments' budgets are set to expire on January 30, 2026. The recent vote on healthcare proposals has led to a bleak outlook for resolution before the Christmas holiday [5] Financial Engineering - The A-share market has shown signs of recovery with increased trading confidence, as evidenced by the rising volatility in the CSI 300 and CSI 500 indices. The Central Economic Work Conference has further boosted market sentiment, suggesting a potential transition from a liquidity-driven market to one driven by fundamentals. The focus remains on a "dividend + technology" investment strategy for the medium to long term [5] Steel Industry - The capacity utilization rate of blast furnaces in December is expected to be lower than the same period last year. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has introduced new regulations aimed at phasing out outdated production capacity, which may lead to a recovery in steel sector profitability to historical average levels [7] Non-Ferrous Metals - Lithium prices have reached approximately 92,000 yuan per ton, with recommendations to focus on companies with cost advantages and resource expansion potential. Prices for cobalt and other related materials have increased, while tungsten prices remain at their highest levels since 2012. The price of neodymium oxide has reached a 19-month high [8] Petrochemical Industry - Sinopec Group is actively pursuing deep reforms and transformations, enhancing governance efficiency through world-class management benchmarks. The company is also improving its ESG performance and has established a clear path for carbon neutrality, attracting long-term capital investments [8] Electric New Energy and Environmental Protection - The Central Economic Work Conference has emphasized the application of green electricity and the promotion of a comprehensive green transition. Plans for 2026 include strengthening the national carbon emissions trading market and fostering new growth areas such as hydrogen energy and green fuels [8]

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Core Viewpoint - China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation (Sinopec) has been actively repurchasing its shares, indicating a strong commitment to enhancing shareholder value and confidence in its stock performance [2][3]. Summary by Category Share Buyback Activity - On December 15, Sinopec repurchased 764,000 shares at a price range of HKD 4.280 to HKD 4.390, totaling HKD 3.306 million [2]. - The stock closed at HKD 4.420 on the same day, reflecting a 1.84% increase with a total trading volume of HKD 10.24 billion [2]. - Since October 30, the company has conducted buybacks for 33 consecutive days, acquiring a total of 131 million shares for a cumulative amount of HKD 57.7 million [2]. - During this period, the stock price has increased by 4.74% [2]. Year-to-Date Buyback Summary - Year-to-date, Sinopec has executed 66 buybacks, acquiring a total of 354 million shares for a total expenditure of HKD 1.643 billion [2]. Detailed Buyback Data - A detailed table of buyback activities shows various dates, number of shares repurchased, highest and lowest prices, and total amounts spent on buybacks, indicating a consistent strategy to support the stock price [3].

回购日期回购均价回购股数回购金额本年累计回购股数2025-12-154.32776.40万330.60万2.64亿2025-12- 124.31367.80万292.43万2.64亿2025-12-114.305254.60万1096.15万2.63亿2025-12-104.325204.00万882.34 万2.60亿2025-12-094.402350.00万1540.60万2.58亿2025-12-084.516120.00万541.90万2.55亿2025-12- 054.50286.00万387.17万2.54亿2025-12-044.497173.20万778.88万2.53亿2025-12-034.523180.00万814.16万 2.51亿2025-12-024.515120.00万541.76万2.49亿2025-12-014.434112.80万500.16万2.48亿2025-11- 284.431925.00万4099.14万2.47亿2025-11-274.470901.00万4027.65万2.38亿2025-11-264.4221100.00万 4863.87万2.29亿202 ...

智通财经APP讯，中国石油化工股份(00386)发布公告，于2025年12月15日，该公司斥资330.6万港元回 购76.4万股股份，每股回购价格为4.28-4.39港元。 ...