【国富期货早间看点】USDA美豆25/26年期末库存预估为2.9亿蒲 阿根廷下调大豆及其副产品出口税 20251210 国富研究 国富研究 2025年12月10日 07:49 上海 01 隔夜行情 | | 收盘价 | 上日涨跌幅(%) | 隔夜涨跌幅(%) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 马棕油02(BMD) | 4102.00 | 0.24 | -0. 05 | | 布伦特02(ICE) | 62. 12 | -0.66 | -0. 10 | | 美原油01(NYMEX) | 58. 39 | -0. 78 | -0. 19 | | 美豆01(CBOT) | 1087.75 | -0. 55 | -0. 18 | | 美豆粕01(CBOT) | 301. 40 | -1.76 | -0.56 | | 美豆油01(CBOT) | 50.99 | -0. 37 | -0. 37 | | | 最新价 | 涨跌幅(%) 十日涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | | 美元指数 | 99.23 | 0. 14 | | 人民币(CNY/USD) | 7. 0773 | 0. 01 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for both soybeans and peanuts is neutral [3][6] Core Viewpoints - The soybean market is supported by a tightening supply of grain at the grassroots level, with farmers' remaining grain generally only 2 - 30% and strong reluctance to sell. The main constraint on the spot market is the logistics issue. The peanut market shows a stable - to - strong price trend due to farmers' reluctance to sell in some areas, but the overall price fluctuation is limited, and the strict acquisition indicators of oil mills cannot boost the market [3][5] Market Analysis of Soybeans Futures and Spot Market - Yesterday, the closing price of the soybeans No.1 2601 contract was 4089.00 yuan/ton, up 4.00 yuan/ton or 0.10% from the previous day. The edible soybean spot basis was A01 + 11, down 4 or 32.14% from the previous day [1] Market Information - The new - season soybean spot prices in the Northeast production area are rising, with an increase of 30 - 80 yuan/ton. The actual soybean purchase and sales are slow, and the tower - grain prices are stable. The future soybean trend depends on downstream consumption [2] Market Trends - The main soybean futures contract rebounded slightly. The core support for the soybean market is the tightening of grassroots grain sources. As the traditional pre - Spring Festival grain - purchasing period approaches, farmers are reluctant to sell, making it difficult for traders to buy grain. The impact of soybean auctions on the spot market is minimal. The spot price is strong, and the main constraint is the logistics problem [3] Market Analysis of Peanuts Futures and Spot Market - Yesterday, the closing price of the peanut 2601 contract was 8060.00 yuan/ton, up 42.00 yuan/ton or 0.52% from the previous day. The peanut spot average price was 8182.00 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous day. The spot basis was PK01 + - 1260.00, down 42.00 or 3.45% from the previous day. The national average price of peanut general - quality rice was 4.09 yuan/jin, up 0.03 yuan/jin [4] Market Trends - The main peanut futures contract fluctuated sideways. Some farmers in the Northeast and Henan are reluctant to sell again, leading to a stable - to - strong peanut price. Traders are cautious in purchasing. In some regions, the sales situation varies. The overall peanut price fluctuation is small, and there may be a slight increase in some areas. The strict acquisition indicators of oil mills cannot boost the peanut market [5] Strategies - For soybeans, the strategy is neutral [3] - For peanuts, the strategy is also neutral [6]

2025年12月10日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-农产品 观点与策略 | 棕榈油：关注MPOB报告利空出尽反应 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 豆油：美豆驱动不足，豆油震荡为主 | 2 | | 豆粕：USDA报告平淡，盘面低位震荡 | 4 | | 豆一：反弹震荡 | 4 | | 玉米：关注现货 | 6 | | 白糖：偏弱运行 | 7 | | 棉花：震荡偏强关注下游需求20251210 | 8 | | 鸡蛋：现货震荡 | 10 | | 生猪：提前交易冬至预期 | 11 | | 花生：关注油厂收购 | 12 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 棕榈油：关注 MPOB 报告利空出尽反应 豆油：美豆驱动不足，豆油震荡为主 | | | 【基本面跟踪】 油脂基本面数据 | | 棕榈油主力 | 单 位 元/吨 | 收盘价 (日盘） | 涨跌幅 -0.67% | 收盘价 （夜盘） | 涨跌幅 0.74% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 豆油主力 | 元/吨 | 8,648 8,190 | -0.49% | 8,712 7,998 | -2.3 ...

"菜心流 量"变"文旅留 量"，这场嘉年 华让清远农文旅 甜上心头_南方 +_南方plus 冬日傍晚，清远 市南岸码头被灯 光和欢声笑语点 亮。人群中，一 位来自广州的游 客何女士兴奋地 向同伴展示手机 屏幕——她刚刚 用购买连州菜心 的消费凭证，抽 中了一张连州地 下河景区的门 票。"本来只是 来买点新鲜菜 心，没想到 还'赚'了一次旅 行！"她笑着说 道。这一幕，正 是"天赋风土·自 在清远"2025年 清远市暖冬消费 季之连州菜心嘉 年华系列活动 （下称"嘉年 华"）主打农文 旅融合的生动缩 影。 嘉年华活动现场市民游客积极参与消费抽奖。 一次"从舌尖甜 到心头"的文旅 新体验 本次嘉年华的核 心现场——南岸 码头"连州菜心 一条街"，化身 为一个集农产 品、美食与旅游 推介于一体的沉 浸式消费空间， 打破了传统农货 市场的单一印 象，将"购 物"与"游乐"紧 密结合。 最受市民游客欢 迎的，无疑 是"吃连州菜 心，游清远胜 景"的联动抽奖 活动。奖品清单 涵盖古龙峡、飞 来峡、连州地下 河、湟川三峡等 景区项目门票以 及"连州菜心 号"北江游船 票，直接将农产 品消费与清远的 核心旅游资源挂 钩。这一 ...

农产品日报 | 2025-12-09 苹果质量偏差走货较慢，红枣新货价差明显 苹果观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘苹果2605合约9506元/吨，较前一日变动-133元/吨，幅度-1.38%。现货方面，山东栖霞80# 一 二级晚富士价格4.10元/斤，较前一日变动+0.00元/斤，现货基差AP05-1306，较前一日变动+133；陕西洛川70# 以 上半商品晚富士价格4.20元/斤，较前一日变动+0.00元/斤，现货基差AP05-1106，较前一日变动+133。 市场分析 昨日苹果期价震荡下跌，相较往年苹果库存偏低，并且苹果质量相对偏差，果农和贸易商出售情绪较低，各产区 走货速度偏慢，大部分客商仍处于观望，关注去库情况。产区新季晚富士入库已结束，入库量低于去年同期10% 以上，客商心态整体较为乐观。上周库存量转降，出库整体一般。后续会陆续开始出库，受季节性淡季影响，消 费按需采购为主，整体节奏略显缓慢，需求端承压运行，交易氛围仍显清淡，柑橘类水果上市量增加，挤压苹果 销售空间，销区情绪相对悲观。 策略 中性。当前入库量、入库结构的预期已经反应在价格上，后续需重点关注终端市场消费复苏情况、入库结构分 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 资讯早班车-2025-12-09 一、 宏观数据速览 | 发布日期 | 指标日期 | 指标名称 | 单位 | 当期值 | 上期值 | 去年同期值 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 20251020 | 2025/09 | GDP:不变价:当季同比 | % | 4.80 | 5.20 | 4.60 | | 20251130 | 2025/11 | 制造业 PMI | % | 49.20 | 49.00 | 50.30 | | 20251130 | 2025/11 | 非制造业 PMI:商务活 动 | % | 49.50 | 50.10 | 50.00 | | 20251114 | 2025/10 | 社会融资规模增量:当 | 亿元 | 8161.00 | 35299.00 | 14120.00 | | | | 月值 | | | | | | 20251113 | 2025/10 | M0(流通中的现金):同 比 | % | 10.60 | 11.50 | 12.80 | | 202511 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the successful integration of agricultural products and rural revitalization efforts showcased at the Winter Trade Fair, emphasizing the importance of industry collaboration and innovation in enhancing local economies and agricultural practices [7][8][9]. Group 1: Product Showcase - A variety of unique agricultural products, including colorful peanuts and specialty sweet potatoes, were presented at the Winter Trade Fair, demonstrating the achievements of the integration of agricultural and local resources [7]. - The Hainan Agricultural Reclamation Group showcased its innovative products and collaborative efforts with local governments to promote agricultural development and rural revitalization [7][8]. Group 2: Innovative Mechanisms - The partnership between Hainan Agricultural Reclamation Group and Wenchang City’s Gongpo Town introduced a new model of industry integration, involving the establishment of strong village companies and the appointment of rural CEOs to enhance local agricultural practices [8][9]. - The collaboration aims to revitalize local assets and create job opportunities for villagers by leveraging the strengths of state-owned enterprises in technology and market experience [9][10]. Group 3: Support Mechanisms - The "Five Unifications" mechanism was established to ensure stable agricultural development by providing unified supply of seeds, feed, technology, prevention, and sales, alleviating farmers' concerns [11]. - Since 2021, over 1,200 farmers have collaborated with the company, generating a total output value of 10.05 billion yuan, demonstrating the effectiveness of deep integration between enterprises and farmers [12]. Group 4: Technological Empowerment - The Hainan Agricultural Reclamation Group has focused on technological empowerment to enhance agricultural production, integrating high-quality agricultural capabilities with local service demands [14]. - The establishment of the rural property transaction service platform has facilitated efficient management and flow of rural assets, contributing to the digital transformation of agricultural practices [15].

美国总统特朗普8日下午在白宫宣布，联邦政府将为美国农民提供规模为120亿美元的救助，以应对美关 税政策对美农业的"反噬"。 特朗普政府今年早些时候出台大范围加征关税政策，扰乱全球贸易秩序，结果导致美国出口市场受阻。 美国大豆和玉米等农产品售价低迷，加上化肥和农用机械成本升高，美国农场经营难以盈利，不少农民 陷入困境。 （文章来源：新华社） ...

玉米现货偏强 盘面冲高回落 银河农产品 研究员：刘大勇 期货从业证号：F03107370 投资咨询证号：Z0018389 目录 | 第一章 | 综合分析与交易策略 | 2 | | --- | --- | --- | | 第二章 | 核心逻辑分析 | 4 | | 第三章 | 周度数据追踪 | 11 | GALAXY FUTURES 1 227/82/4 228/210/172 181/181/181 87/87/87 文 字 色 基 础 色 辅 助 色 137/137/137 246/206/207 68/84/105 210/10/16 221/221/221 208/218/234 综合分析与交易策略 玉米：美玉米11月下调单产，但是产量处于高位，美玉米03合约偏强震荡，预计美玉米03合约430美分/蒲支撑较强。中国进口美玉米配额内关税11%，高粱 为12%，美玉米进口有利润，巴西进口利润较高。目前农户仍惜售，玉米上量较低，预计12月中下旬东北玉米仍有一波卖压。短期东北玉米上量偏低，下游刚需 补库，东北玉米偏强，华北玉米上量增加，玉米现货偏弱，华北小麦价格偏强。预计短期北港收购价会下调，玉米现货上涨空间有限 ...

Core Insights - The "Ledu" regional public brand is gaining recognition through the Winter Trade Fair, enhancing the visibility of local agricultural products, particularly the Ledu honeydew melon [2][3] Group 1: Product Highlights - Ledu honeydew melon is a traditional specialty of Ledu Li Autonomous County, achieving significant brand awareness at the Winter Trade Fair, with over 200 melons cut for tasting [2] - Zhejiang Wenzhou Chengxin Fruit Forest, a buyer, purchases Ledu honeydew melons worth 20 million yuan annually, indicating strong demand in mid-to-high-end retail [2] - New products, such as the salt-tolerant hybrid rice "Jingliangyou 3261," were showcased, aiming to optimize market entry through consumer feedback [2] Group 2: Market Trends - The number of buyers and consumers consulting at the Ledu pavilion has increased compared to the previous year, reflecting growing interest in Ledu's seafood and agricultural products [3] - Ledu has developed a unique agricultural industry system based on tropical fruits, winter vegetables, and breeding, supported by favorable climate and soil conditions [3] - The Ledu Agricultural and Rural Bureau emphasizes the importance of the Winter Trade Fair in deepening the "Ledu" brand and plans to enhance product standards and storytelling to build trust [3]