尿素月报 | 2026-01-04 需求柔性支撑，关注采购节奏及消息扰动 市场要闻与数据 尿素市场：尿素主力收盘1749元/吨（+6）；河南小颗粒市场价1700元/吨（+10）；山东小颗粒市场价1710元/吨（+0）； 江苏小颗粒市场价1710元/吨（+0）；山东尿素基差-39元/吨（-6）；河南尿素基差-49元/吨（+4）；江苏尿素基差-39 元/吨（-6）。12月先跌后涨，上半月随着下游畏高情绪凸显，储备节奏放缓，期现价格共振下跌。部分区域环保限 制导致下游开工下降，随后上游部分企业也受影响供应下滑，月中随着印度NFL发布新一轮尿素进口招标，尿素 现货成交氛围好转，带动价格上涨，环保预警再现，尿素部分上下游开工受限，现货价格降价吸单，现货采购情 绪再度好转。 供应端：截至2026-01-04，企业产能利用率78.78%（-1.9%）；尿素月度产量为600万吨，同比+7.66%。尿素12月部 分气头进入检修，装置检修与复产并行，月度产量较11月小幅增加。8月安徽中能、章丘日月投产，9月九江心连 心投产，10月甘肃金昌投产，11月新疆中能投产。1月暂定3套气头装置计划检修，部分气头检修企业以及前期技 改装置回 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content. Core Viewpoints - The short - term outlook for urea is volatile, while the medium - term central price is expected to rise [2]. - The fundamentals of urea have improved temporarily, with the driving force being neutral to slightly strong, but the strength is limited. The subsequent upward movement of the driving force depends on the continuity of mid - stream replenishment [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Valuation End: Price and Spread - Multiple charts show the historical trends of urea basis (e.g., Zhengyuan, Boda, Jinkai, Dongping), monthly spreads (5 - 9, 1 - 5, 9 - 1), and warehouse receipts, as well as domestic and international spot prices [5][9][15][19] Domestic Supply Capacity - The expansion pattern of urea production capacity continued in 2025. In 2024, the total new production capacity was 392 million tons, and in 2025, it was 664 million tons. There are also plans for new capacity in 2026 [23] Production Enterprise Maintenance Plan - Many enterprises had maintenance plans from November 2025 to January 2026, including Yangmei Fengxi, Linggu Chemical, etc., with reasons including routine maintenance and loss - based (cost) maintenance [25] Output - The production profit is around the break - even point, and the daily output of urea remains at a high level [26] Cost - Raw material prices have stabilized, and the cash - flow cost line of factories has increased. Cost calculations are provided for Shanxi fixed - bed factories, including coal - related costs, ammonia, and urea [29] Profit - The profit corresponding to the cash - flow cost of urea is currently in a profitable state, with charts showing the cash - flow profit and production profit of different production methods [34][35] Net Import (Export) - During the reserve period, export policies tightened. Historical monthly export data from 2018 - 2025 (E) are provided, and there are also charts showing export profits and export quantities [39][40][41] Domestic Demand Agricultural Rigid Demand - Agricultural demand is seasonally strengthening, with different regions having different demand patterns according to crop types and growth stages. High - standard farmland construction has increased the demand for urea from corn [45][46][48] Industrial Rigid Demand - **Compound Fertilizer**: Charts show the capacity utilization rate, production cost, production profit, and factory inventory of compound fertilizers [52][53][54] - **Melamine**: Charts show the production profit, market price, output, and capacity utilization rate of melamine [57][58] - **Real Estate and Panels**: The demand for panels from the real estate sector has limited support, but panel exports are resilient, with relevant export and real - estate data presented [59][60] Inventory - On December 31, 2025, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 1019,200 tons, a decrease of 49,700 tons from the previous week, a 4.65% month - on - month decrease. As of December 25, 2025 (week 52), the sample inventory of Chinese urea ports was 177,000 tons, a 39,000 - ton increase from the previous week, a 28.26% month - on - month increase [65] International Urea International Urea Price - Charts show the historical trends of FOB prices of large - granular urea from China, the Baltic Sea, and the Middle East, as well as the CFR price of large - granular urea in Brazil [69][70][72]

国泰君安期货·能源化工 尿素周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所 杨鈜汉 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021541 日期：2026年01月04日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 资料来源：钢联，隆众资讯，国泰君安期货研究 本周尿素观点：短期震荡，中期中枢上移 • 本周(20251225-1231)，中国尿素生产企业产能利用率80.29%，较上期涨1.52%，趋势小幅上涨。周期内新增4家企业装置停车，6家停车企业（装置）恢复生产，延续 上周期的装置变化，产能利用率由降转升。中国尿素生产企业煤制产能利用率：89.59%，较上期涨2.53%；中国尿素生产企业气制产能利用率：48.40%，较上期跌 1.97%。下周，中国尿素生产企业周产能利用率预计在81-82%附近，较本期小幅提升。下个周期预计3家企业装置计划停车，5家停车企业装置可能恢复生产，考虑到 企业的短时故障，在延续本周期的装置变化，下个周期产能利用率增加的概率较大。（隆众资讯） 风险点 • 出口政策调整、煤炭价格大幅波动、海外能源价格大幅波动、海外地缘政治风险； Speci ...

12月31日，兖矿新疆煤化工尿素出厂报价1310元/吨，该厂尿素产能52万吨；新疆奎屯锦疆尿素出厂报价1350元/吨，该厂产能70万吨，装置生产 正常。 12月24日，中国尿素生产企业库存量106.89，减少11.08万吨，环比减少9.39%。中国尿素港口样本库存量17.7万吨，环比增加3.0万吨，环比涨幅 28.2%。 12月30日，郑商所尿素期货仓单录得12381张，较上一交易日增长1631张；最近一周，尿素期货仓单累计增长1849张，增长幅度为17.56%；最近 一个月，尿素期货仓单累计增长4794张，增长幅度为63.19%。 截至2025年12月31日当周，尿素期货主力合约收于1749元/吨，周K线收阳，持仓量环比上周增持8168手。 本周(12月29日-12月31日)市场上看，尿素期货周内开盘报1729元/吨，最高触及1763元/吨，最低下探至1721元/吨，周度涨跌幅达0.81%。 消息面回顾： 机构观点汇总： 国信期货：据卓创资讯（301299），尿素市场整体呈现供应宽松格局，当前尿素生产企业开工率为81.6%，环比小幅下降，但仍处于近年的高位 区间运行；需求端则表现平淡，农业需求处于阶段性空档 ...

Group 1 - The company China Heartland Fertilizer (01866) announced a share buyback plan [1] - The total amount spent on the buyback is HKD 3.8077 million [1] - The company repurchased 424,000 shares at a price range of HKD 8.81 to HKD 9.18 per share [1]

Core Viewpoint - China Heartlink Fertilizer (01866) announced a share buyback plan, indicating confidence in its stock value and future prospects [1] Group 1: Share Buyback Details - The company will repurchase 424,000 shares at a total cost of HKD 3.8077 million [1] - The buyback price per share ranges from HKD 8.81 to HKD 9.18 [1]

据外媒报道，最近一段时期，欧盟化肥价格攀升与布鲁塞尔法规变动使数千名欧洲农民陷入成本上升与 利润萎缩的两难境地。氮肥、磷肥和钾肥，这些现代农业不可或缺的投入品，正处于风暴的中心：制 裁、关税、贸易限制和环保法规共同侵蚀着欧洲农民的竞争力，挤压欧盟农业的利润空间。这也解释了 欧洲农民日益高涨的愤怒情绪。 该保护主义倾向遭到农业组织强烈批评。欧洲农业组织联合会（Copa-Cogeca）谴责欧盟农业政策不过 是"障眼法"，而欧洲青年农民理事会则警告称，成本上升与利润下滑的双重压力正将新一代青年农民推 离农业领域。 自乌克兰危机爆发以来，欧盟将化肥视为政治工具，屡屡对俄罗斯和白俄罗斯化肥进行制裁，而这两国 产品占据欧洲需求的重要份额。行业分析显示，若实施进一步限制，欧盟化肥支出将增加约40亿欧元， 直接推高粮食生产成本和食品价格。 当前，掌控全球近30%磷酸盐供应的中国大幅削减出口，进一步收紧了本已脆弱的欧盟市场。可见，欧 盟在对外实施各种限制的同时，非但未能提振国内生产，实现"战略自主"的承诺目标，反而将自身暴露 于新的外部瓶颈风险之中。 投入成本上升已迫使欧洲农民减少化肥使用，导致产量下降。当前，欧洲化肥价格较去 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that potassium chloride prices remain high due to tight supply, with domestic production decreasing as companies enter winter maintenance periods [1][3] - The official price for 60% potassium chloride in Qinghai is reported at 3100 yuan per ton, with market prices ranging from 3150 to 3200 yuan, reflecting a scarcity of supply [1][3] - Import potassium stock at ports is between 2.4 million to 2.45 million tons, with insufficient available supply due to national storage inspections and completion of annual tasks [1][3] Group 2 - The price of potassium sulfate remains stable, but companies are facing significant cost pressures, leading to losses [4] - The operating rate of processing potassium sulfate plants is around 45%, with reduced inventory pressure for companies [4] - The market demand for potassium fertilizer is currently weak, not due to a lack of end-user demand, but rather due to resistance to current prices and competition from other fertilizer types [4] Group 3 - The Israeli Chemicals Group (ICL) has signed a standard potassium chloride supply contract with Chinese customers for 2026 at a price of 348 USD, which is consistent with a previous contract reached with the Russian Ural Potash Company [5]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating The report does not provide an investment rating for the agrochemical products industry. 2. Core Viewpoints The agrochemical products industry has stable demand supported by the "stable grain supply" policy and the growth of fertilizer and pesticide exports. The supply - side ecosystem is expected to optimize under the "anti - involution" policy, and the industry's profitability is expected to increase. Policy support for food security has strengthened the demand for agrochemical products, and multi - dimensional factors such as domestic consumption and exports have further boosted the demand. Meanwhile, the supply - side reform in the fertilizer and pesticide sectors is promoting industry concentration and high - quality development [1][12]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Agrochemical Products Industry Overview - **Policy Support and Demand Foundation**: The government has continuously strengthened food security policies. In 2025, the national grain output reached 14297.5 billion jin, an increase of 1.2% year - on - year, providing core support for agrochemical product demand. Domestic food consumption is rigid, and the demand for agrochemical products is driven by multiple factors such as domestic food, feed consumption, and exports. In 2025, from January to November, the export volume of fertilizers increased by 45.52% year - on - year, and the export volume of pesticides also increased significantly [12][13]. - **Supply - side Optimization**: The government and the industry are jointly promoting "anti - involution." The Chinese Pesticide Industry Association launched a three - year "Rectifying Involution" action, and the Chinese Phosphate and Compound Fertilizer Industry Association issued an initiative to strengthen industry self - discipline. As backward production capacity exits and new capacity is limited, the industry ecosystem is expected to improve [14]. 3.2 Fertilizer Industry - **Industry Chain and Supply - side Reform**: The fertilizer industry includes phosphate fertilizers, nitrogen fertilizers, potassium fertilizers, and compound fertilizers. In recent years, the supply - side reform has advanced, with an increase in fertilizer production but a decrease in application and an improvement in utilization efficiency. In 2025, from January to November, the export volume of fertilizers increased by 45.52% year - on - year, mainly driven by nitrogen fertilizers and compound fertilizers, while the import volume decreased by 1.22% year - on - year [15][20]. - **Phosphate Fertilizer Sub - sector**: The supply of phosphate fertilizers is restricted by phosphate rock resources. In 2025, from January to November, the production of monoammonium phosphate and diammonium phosphate decreased year - on - year. The price of phosphate fertilizers has been rising due to the tight balance of phosphate rock supply and demand and strict policies on new phosphate ammonium capacity [32][54]. 3.3 Pesticide Industry - **Industry Structure and Policy - driven Supply Improvement**: Pesticides are used for pest control and plant growth regulation. China is the world's largest producer of pesticide technicals, but there is a problem of over - capacity. In 2025, the Chinese Pesticide Industry Association proposed a three - year "Rectifying Involution" action plan, and new policies such as the revised "Pesticide Registration Management Method" will optimize the industry's competition pattern [61][62]. - **Production, Demand, and Price Trends**: In 2025, from January to November, the growth rate of China's pesticide technical production decreased, but the export volume increased. The global demand for pesticides is rigid, and pesticide prices are expected to recover as over - capacity is alleviated [63][71]. - **Glyphosate Sub - sector**: Glyphosate is the most widely used single - product pesticide globally. Policy restricts new capacity, and the inventory has been decreasing since 2025. The growth of global transgenic crop planting area drives the demand and export of glyphosate, and the price is expected to rise, and the industry's prosperity is expected to increase [75][90]. 3.4 Agrochemical Products Industry Convertible Bonds Basic Situation - **General Information**: As of December 26, 2025, the outstanding balance of convertible bonds in the agrochemical products industry totaled 9.767 billion yuan, accounting for 25.27% of the convertible bond balance in the basic chemical industry. The un - converted ratio of all convertible bonds is over 90%, and the credit ratings range from AA - to AA + [91][94]. - **Trading and Valuation**: The trading volume of Hebang Convertible Bonds is the highest, with an annual trading volume exceeding 24 billion yuan. Since 2025, both the prices of agrochemical convertible bonds and their underlying stocks have risen, and the price increase of underlying stocks is generally stronger than that of convertible bonds. All agrochemical convertible bonds are balanced - type, with Yangfeng Convertible Bonds having a relatively high conversion premium rate of over 40% [95][99]. - **Financial Performance**: From Q1 to Q3 in 2025, the profitability of most issuers of agrochemical convertible bonds has recovered. The operating net cash flow of most issuers has shown continuous inflow or improvement, and the asset - liability ratio at the end of Q3 in 2025 is generally controllable [3][103]. 3.5 Individual Bond Situations - **Xingfa Convertible Bonds**: The issuer, Xingfa Group, is a leading enterprise in the phosphate chemical industry, with advantages in phosphate rock mining rights and power costs. It has a complete phosphate chemical industry chain, and its new energy materials business is advancing. In 2025, from Q1 to Q3, its profitability was stable, and the net profit increased year - on - year [108][110]. - **Suli Convertible Bonds**: The issuer, Suli Co., Ltd., is engaged in pesticides, flame retardants, and other fine chemical products. In 2025, the demand in the agrochemical market recovered, and the quantity and price of its products such as chlorothalonil and decabromodiphenylethane increased, driving the growth of the company's performance [111][112]. - **Fengshan Convertible Bonds**: The issuer, Fengshan Group, is involved in pesticides, new energy electronic chemicals, and fine chemical new materials. In 2025, the company's net profit turned from loss to profit in the first three quarters, and its operating performance improved [113][115]. - **Hebang Convertible Bonds**: The issuer, Hebang Biotech, is engaged in mining, chemicals, photovoltaic glass, etc. The company has strengthened its mining layout, and the phosphate rock business has been prosperous. Since the second quarter of 2025, the quantity and price of glyphosate have increased [116][117]. - **Yangfeng Convertible Bonds**: The issuer, New Yangfeng, is a leading enterprise in phosphate compound fertilizers. It has a complete industrial chain layout, and its new fertilizer business is developing. In 2025, from Q1 to Q3, its profitability was stable, and the net profit increased year - on - year [118][119].

Group 1 - The national production materials market price increased by 0.1% from December 22 to 28 compared to the previous week [1] - Non-ferrous metal prices saw a slight rebound, with copper and aluminum rising by 3.1% and 0.8% respectively, while zinc remained stable [1] - Rubber prices continued to rise, with synthetic rubber and natural rubber increasing by 0.6% and 0.2% respectively [1] Group 2 - Fertilizer prices experienced a slight increase, with urea and compound fertilizer rising by 0.3% and 0.1% respectively [1] - Steel prices showed minor fluctuations, with high-speed wire and rebar priced at 3558 yuan and 3361 yuan per ton, increasing by 0.3% and 0.1% respectively, while ordinary medium plates and hot-rolled strips decreased by 0.2% [1] - Coal prices predominantly decreased, with thermal coal and coking coal priced at 777 yuan and 1052 yuan per ton, decreasing by 0.5% and 0.3% respectively, while smokeless lump coal increased by 0.1% [1] Group 3 - Basic chemical raw material prices saw a slight decline, with polypropylene, methanol, soda ash, and sulfuric acid decreasing by 0.6%, 0.5%, 0.5%, and 0.4% respectively [1] - Wholesale prices of finished oil products slightly decreased, with 0 diesel, 95 gasoline, and 92 gasoline dropping by 1.6%, 1.3%, and 1.3% respectively [1]