Core Insights - The article highlights the significant decline in U.S. soybean exports to China, with recent data showing zero orders, leading to a record high inventory of 420 million bushels, equivalent to over 11 million tons [1][3][10] - The impact of tariffs and trade policies is causing financial strain on American farmers, with many considering switching crops due to the high costs associated with changing their farming practices [3][6][22] - The shift in trade dynamics is evident as South American countries like Brazil and Argentina are increasing their soybean exports to China, capturing a larger share of the global market [12][28] Group 1: Export and Inventory Trends - U.S. soybean exports to China have dropped to zero, resulting in a high inventory level of 420 million bushels [1][10] - The decline in exports is expected to affect approximately 200,000 jobs and lead to a loss of $15 billion in related industries [10][25] Group 2: Financial Strain on Farmers - Farmers are facing tight cash flow due to full warehouses and the inability to sell their crops, leading to difficulties in loan repayments and equipment maintenance [3][6] - The cost of switching to alternative crops, such as corn, is significant, with an average conversion cost of $200 per acre [3][22] Group 3: Policy and Trade Dynamics - The U.S. government has indicated that tariff collection will continue even during budget disputes, emphasizing the importance of tariffs as a revenue source [5][20] - The perception of U.S. tariffs as a political risk is causing international buyers to reconsider their purchasing strategies, leading to a shift in supply chains [16][29] Group 4: Competitive Landscape - South America is gaining a competitive edge in soybean exports, with Brazil's exports to China increasing by 42% and Argentina's by 28% [12][28] - Other suppliers, including Canada and the EU, are also increasing their agricultural exports to China, highlighting the shifting dynamics in global trade [14][28] Group 5: Long-term Implications - The ongoing trade tensions and tariff policies are creating a lack of trust among international buyers, which could have lasting effects on U.S. agricultural exports [16][29] - The article suggests that for U.S. agriculture to recover, policies must shift from being merely assertive to ensuring stable trade relationships [29]

过去几十年，中国是美国大豆的最大买家，常年占美国出口的六成以上。 每年秋收时节，美国农民把仓库装得满满当当，然后就等着中国买单，但今年情况完全变了。 数据显示，自今年5月起，中国一颗美国大豆都没买。 到9月底，美国《纽约时报》甚至强调，这在近30年历史里都是第一次。 美国豆农眼看丰收变成滞销，价格不断下跌，抱怨声冲到华盛顿，直接怼上特朗普的关税政策。 美国大豆"烂在地里" 中美贸易战打起来后，美国大豆种植户的日子就一天比一天难熬，眼瞅着秋收季到了，地里的大豆却成 了烫手山芋。 以前每到这个时候，美国农民的仓库早就为装要发往中国的大豆腾好了地方，可现在仓库里堆得满满当 当的全是卖不出去的大豆，有的甚至都开始发霉了。 大豆价格更是一跌再跌，直接跌破了成本线，农民们看着这些大豆，心里别提多着急了。 但就在美国农民为大豆滞销发愁的时候，南美国家可没闲着，尤其是巴西和阿根廷，直接"趁火打劫"。 巴西凭借着零关税的优势，再加上稳定的供应，在9月份的时候，一下子就向中国出口了40船大豆，赚 得盆满钵满。 阿根廷更狠，米莱政府一边拿着美国的援助，一边转头就对中国免征大豆出口税，这操作直接让美国农 民气不打一处来。 而中国这边 ...

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. agricultural sector, particularly soybean farmers, is facing significant challenges due to the U.S. government's recent economic support to Argentina, which has led to increased competition in the soybean market and a decline in U.S. soybean exports to China [1][3][4]. Group 1: Economic Support to Argentina - The U.S. Treasury Secretary announced a plan to establish a $20 billion currency swap line with Argentina to stabilize its economy, which has angered American farmers [1]. - Argentina has suspended export taxes on soybeans and increased trade with China, resulting in at least 10 shipments of soybeans being ordered by China [1]. Group 2: Impact on U.S. Soybean Farmers - U.S. soybean prices have dropped approximately 40% from their peak in 2022, leading to significant financial strain on farmers [3]. - The U.S. Department of Agriculture reported that U.S. soybean exports to China have ceased since May, exacerbating the financial difficulties for American farmers [1][3]. Group 3: Historical Context and Market Share Loss - The U.S. agricultural sector has not fully recovered from the trade war's impact, which resulted in a $27 billion loss in agricultural exports and a drop in market share to 19% in the Chinese soybean market [4]. - Brazil's share of soybean imports in China has surged to 71% by 2024, compared to just 2% 30 years ago, indicating a significant shift in market dynamics [1][4]. Group 4: Future Prospects and Innovations - U.S. soybean growers are attempting to innovate and establish profitable systems outside of the Chinese market, such as developing soybean processing products for domestic sales [5]. - The U.S. government has previously provided $28 billion in aid to farmers, but experts suggest that regaining lost market share will be a long and challenging process [6].

Core Insights - The article discusses the impact of the US-China trade war on the soybean market, highlighting the shift in China's soybean sourcing from the US to Brazil, which has significant implications for US farmers and the political landscape in the Midwest [1][3][15] Economic Impact - The US soybean market heavily relies on exports, with China previously accounting for up to 60% of US soybean exports. However, this share has dropped to 18% as Brazil has become the largest supplier to China [3] - In 2025, despite a bumper crop in the US, soybean prices are expected to plummet, leading to a significant reduction in farmers' incomes [5] - The political ramifications are evident as key Republican states, which are major soybean producers, are experiencing discontent among farmers towards Trump's policies [5][7] Political Dynamics - The article notes that the US government has attempted to mitigate the situation by negotiating trade agreements that require other countries to purchase US agricultural products, but these measures have proven ineffective [7][9] - The Republican Party is considering reallocating funds from nutritional assistance to support farmers, but this aid may not arrive in time to address immediate concerns [9] Global Market Dynamics - The US is the second-largest producer and exporter of soybeans, traditionally holding significant pricing power in the global market. However, major grain companies dominate over 80% of the global grain trade, influencing soybean prices [11] - China is actively working to increase its influence in the soybean market by developing its futures market and diversifying its import sources beyond the US, including Brazil, Argentina, and Russia [13][15] Future Outlook - The article suggests that as China continues to diversify its soybean imports and enhance its domestic production capabilities, the US's reliance on the Chinese market may diminish, altering the global agricultural trade landscape [15]

Group 1 - The article discusses the potential for the U.S. government to provide financial aid to farmers, particularly soybean growers, due to the ongoing trade tensions with China and the lack of soybean purchases from China [1][2][5] - President Trump is considering using tariff revenue as a source for this aid, with discussions around a potential aid package ranging from $10 billion to $14 billion [1][2] - The U.S. Department of Agriculture reported that as of September 18, no soybean shipments had been booked by Chinese buyers for the new sales season, marking the first time since 1999 that this has occurred [2][5] Group 2 - The article highlights the significant economic impact of the trade conflict on U.S. soybean farmers, with estimates indicating that over 70% of the total losses among U.S. farmers were incurred by soybean growers [5] - In the previous trade conflict, the U.S. government provided approximately $23 billion in compensation to farmers, but many farmers are now seeking long-term solutions rather than temporary aid [5][6] - The article notes that Brazil has significantly increased its soybean exports to China, surpassing 2 billion bushels, while U.S. soybean exports to China have drastically declined [5][6] Group 3 - The upcoming APEC meeting is expected to be a platform for discussions between U.S. and Chinese leaders regarding agricultural purchases, including soybeans [1][9] - U.S. Treasury Secretary mentioned that significant breakthroughs in trade negotiations could occur during the APEC meeting, which may include discussions on agricultural procurement [10] - The article emphasizes the pressure on Trump from Republican lawmakers in agricultural states to resolve the soybean purchasing deadlock with China [2][5]

Core Viewpoint - The narrative surrounding China's investment in Brazil for soybean cultivation, which claims to harm the rainforest and global climate, is often driven by vested interests rather than environmental concerns [1] Group 1: Historical Context - Over 20 years ago, China's soybean industry was weak, suffering significant losses during the first soybean "trade war," leading to the closure of 90% of domestic soybean processing enterprises [4] - By 2025, U.S. soybean stocks began to accumulate, with 30 million tons unsold, as China shifted away from reliance on U.S. imports due to historical price volatility and inflation concerns [5] Group 2: Investment in Brazil - In 2010, Chongqing Grain Group invested nearly 6 billion in Brazil, acquiring over 3 million acres for a full supply chain in soybean production, storage, and transportation [7] - Following criticism from Western nations regarding environmental impacts, China adapted its strategy to collaborate with local firms rather than direct land purchases, with COFCO Group taking over in 2014 to control logistics and processing [7] Group 3: Economic and Political Gains - The successful strategy not only met China's soybean demand but also facilitated trade in renminbi, enhancing foreign exchange stability and promoting the internationalization of the currency [8] - Brazil has increasingly aligned its diplomatic stance with China, evidenced by investments from Chinese companies and the presence of Chinese automotive and technology firms in Brazil [8] Group 4: Global Strategy - China's approach in Brazil has been replicated globally, with partnerships in Southeast Asia and Africa, focusing on resource cooperation and infrastructure development, further stabilizing resource supply and promoting renminbi usage [10] Group 5: Strategic Vision - The evolution of China's soybean industry from reactive measures to a comprehensive global strategy reflects 20 years of strategic foresight, breaking U.S. dominance in the global food market and establishing a self-sufficient supply chain [12]

9月23日，记者就"中国是否会增加采购美国大豆"的问题，向中国相关部门询问。外交部发言人回应表示，具体问题应由相关主管部门解答，并强调关税战 和贸易战并不符合任何一方的利益，双方应在平等、尊重、互惠的基础上解决争端。 然而，大豆问题只是特朗普面临的一部分挑战。一个更为严重的问题是稀土。稀土元素对美国的高科技产业和军工产业至关重要。随着中国对稀土资源的控 制，美国的技术领域正面临风险。特朗普在关税问题上对中国做出让步，正是因为美国无法轻易摆脱对中国稀土的依赖。 最近，美洲大豆市场发生了一些微妙的变化。作为全球最大的大豆进口国，中国在购买美洲大豆时，逐渐将目光从巴西转向阿根廷，但却几乎不再从美国采 购。这一变化引起了美国大豆行业的关注。 9月19日，美国大豆协会主席拉格兰在接受美广播公司采访时透露，美国大豆正面临严峻形势。尽管此时正值美国大豆丰收季节，但中国的采购量却为零。 他呼吁特朗普政府采取行动，强调美国的大豆种植者迫切需要中国市场的支持。拉格兰的言论实际上是在请求特朗普关注这一问题，毕竟，美国的大豆种植 者群体是特朗普竞选的重要支持者之一，但现在他们的国际市场份额正在逐步受到威胁。 如今，全球不可替代的商品 ...

Core Insights - The article highlights the impact of Argentina's decision to eliminate soybean export taxes, allowing it to sell 20 ships of soybeans to China, which has led to a significant drop in soybean prices in the U.S. [1] - U.S. soybean farmers are facing severe financial losses due to tariffs and market share erosion, with imports from the U.S. to China plummeting by 39% year-on-year [3][4] - Argentina's economic crisis has prompted a pragmatic approach to trade, prioritizing economic benefits over political alliances, resulting in a rapid increase in soybean exports to China [4] Group 1: Market Dynamics - U.S. soybean prices have fallen from $15 per bushel to $9, leading to potential losses of $400,000 for farmers [3] - The U.S. market share in China has decreased from 60% to 21% due to a 10% tariff imposed by China on U.S. soybeans, increasing import costs significantly [3] - Argentina's decision to eliminate the soybean export tax has allowed it to capture a larger share of the Chinese market, which previously accounted for only 4% of its exports [4] Group 2: Economic and Political Context - Argentina's inflation rate stands at 140%, prompting the government to prioritize economic survival by removing export taxes [4] - U.S. farmers are dissatisfied with the government's focus on subsidies rather than market access, as they face long-term losses from losing the Chinese market [6] - The political implications of the trade war are significant, as U.S. farmers, a key voter base for Trump, are increasingly frustrated with the ongoing tariffs and market losses [9] Group 3: Global Trade Shifts - Brazil has gained a dominant position in the Chinese soybean market, capturing 71% of imports, while Argentina is quickly increasing its exports [4][7] - The diversification of China's supply chain has reduced the U.S. soybean's market share, with emerging suppliers like Russia and Myanmar also expanding their presence [7] - The article suggests that the ongoing trade dynamics are reshaping global agricultural trade, with China becoming a decisive factor in determining market leaders [6][9]

今年的美国大豆市场可谓一片混乱。特朗普刚在2025年1月宣誓就职没多久，就对中国商品加征关税，打算保护美国制造业。但事情没按预期发展，反而先 伤到了美国自己的农业。 从5月份开始，中国彻底停止购买美国大豆，把订单转向巴西和阿根廷。结果，美国中西部的豆农手里堆着468万吨存货，卖不出去，价格一路下跌。美国农 业部9月的报告显示，今年前7个月美国对华农产品出口大跌53%，大豆几乎没有成交。要知道，去年同期中国还是美国大豆的最大买家，采购额高达126亿 美元，如今却一单未下。 对于美国豆农来说，打击尤为沉重。中西部的伊利诺伊、爱荷华、明尼苏达、内布拉斯加和印第安纳州是大豆主产区，占全国产量的40%。过去，中国会买 走一半产量，另一半由国内消化。如今出口受阻，库存不断增加。农业部预计，2025/26年度美国大豆出口量仅有4640万吨，比去年少700万吨。价格也跌破 每蒲式耳8美元，连成本都覆盖不了。8月份的交易数据显示，期货价格暴跌40%，不少农场主面临破产风险。仓库爆满、霉变问题频发，甚至部分加工厂开 始裁员。 白宫也尝试安抚农民。7月中旬，农业部长维尔萨克在白宫汇报情况后，特朗普同意设立援助基金，用关税收入补贴农 ...

Core Viewpoint - The refusal of China to purchase U.S. soybeans has created significant concern within the U.S. government, leading to threats of continued tariffs despite potential government shutdowns [1][12]. Group 1: U.S.-China Trade Relations - Since the onset of the U.S.-China tariff war, both countries have engaged in reciprocal sanctions, with agriculture being a critical battleground alongside essential materials like rare earths [3]. - As of September 28, the U.S. Department of Agriculture reported zero soybean orders from Chinese companies, a stark contrast to the 6.5 million tons ordered during the same period last year [3]. - China accounted for 22.1 million tons of U.S. soybean exports in 2024, representing 42% of total exports, but has not placed any orders since May, marking the first occurrence in 27 years [3]. Group 2: Impact on U.S. Farmers - The refusal to purchase U.S. soybeans is described as "devastating" for American soybean farmers, with many facing potential bankruptcy due to the lack of orders [5]. - Despite ongoing negotiations, no resolution has been reached regarding tariffs, and the soybean harvest season has passed, leaving farmers uncertain about future agreements [5]. - In the second quarter, China imported over 30 million tons of soybeans from Brazil and Argentina, indicating a significant shift in sourcing away from the U.S. [7]. Group 3: U.S. Government Response - The U.S. government, particularly the Department of Homeland Security, has stated that tariff collection will continue even in the event of a government shutdown, emphasizing a hardline stance [12]. - The Trump administration maintains that short-term losses from the tariff war are acceptable, with the expectation of future gains for American farmers [7]. - The ongoing tariff strategy is seen as a necessary function for national security, despite the adverse effects on U.S. businesses and consumers [12]. Group 4: Broader Economic Implications - The halt in U.S. soybean orders reflects broader concerns across various sectors, with many companies facing supply chain disruptions and increased costs due to tariffs [14]. - Rising prices from tariffs are expected to be passed on to consumers, indicating potential economic and social governance crises if the current high-pressure tactics continue [14].