1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The hotspots in the stock market are receding, and the bond market sentiment is warming up. In the stock index futures market, the previous hotspots are fading, and it is difficult to have systematic opportunities at the end of the year. In the stock index options market, the implied volatility is still in a downward channel. In the bond market, the sentiment is comprehensively warming up under the influence of broad - money and supply expectations [1][2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Views 3.1.1 Stock Index Futures - **Viewpoint**: The previous hotspots are receding. The IF, IH, IC, and IM monthly basis points and inter - period spreads have changed. The IF, IH, IC, and IM positions have also changed. - **Logic**: On Tuesday, the Shanghai Composite Index fluctuated and closed flat above 3900 points with a trading volume of 1.9 trillion yuan. The unsuccessful rocket launch affected the commercial aerospace sector, and the consumer sector also declined. With the approaching of overseas holidays and the end of the year, it is difficult to have systematic opportunities. It is recommended to allocate funds defensively with high - dividend and price - rising chains as the main lines, and large - cap stocks are better than small - cap stocks. - **Operation Suggestion**: Buy Red - chip ETF and IC long positions [7]. 3.1.2 Stock Index Options - **Viewpoint**: The implied volatility is still in a downward channel. - **Logic**: On Tuesday, the equity market fluctuated and was divided. The trading volume of the two markets increased, but the activity in the options market decreased. The implied volatility of each variety declined. In the context of tight liquidity at the end of the year, the market is in a digestion period, and it is recommended to focus on defense and continue the covered call strategy. - **Operation Suggestion**: Implement the covered call strategy [7]. 3.1.3 Treasury Bond Futures - **Viewpoint**: Under the influence of broad - money and supply expectations, the bond market sentiment is comprehensively warming up. - **Logic**: The main contracts of treasury bond futures rose across the board. The warming of the bond market is related to the broad - money expectation and the government bond supply expectation. The short - term is benefited by the relatively loose capital, and the long - term may be volatile. - **Operation Suggestion**: Trend strategy: Oscillation. Hedging strategy: Pay attention to short - hedging at the low basis. Basis strategy: Appropriate attention to the widening of the basis. Curve strategy: The curve may maintain steepening [8][9]. 3.2 Economic Calendar - The report shows the economic data of China and the United States from December 22 - 24, 2025, including China's December LPR and the US Q3 GDP growth rate and the initial jobless claims on December 20 [11]. 3.3 Important Information and News Tracking - **Central Enterprises**: General Secretary Xi Jinping made important instructions on the work of central enterprises, emphasizing their responsibilities and missions, focusing on main businesses, promoting innovation, deepening reforms, and preventing risks [12]. - **Commercial Aerospace**: On December 23, 2025, the Long March 12A rocket completed its first flight, but the first - stage rocket recovery was not successful, which provided experience for subsequent technology iteration [12]. - **Consumption**: Many places have launched the application and selection of business entities for the 2026 home appliance and digital product trade - in program. The central government will continue the "national subsidy" for trade - in next year [13]. 3.4 Derivatives Market Monitoring - **Stock Index Futures Data**: Specific data on basis points, inter - period spreads, and positions of IF, IH, IC, and IM are provided [7]. - **Stock Index Options Data**: Not detailed in the given content. - **Treasury Bond Futures Data**: Data on trading volume, positions, inter - period spreads, cross - variety spreads, and basis of T, TF, TS, and TL are provided [7][8].

Core Viewpoint - The company, Aidi Tech (301580), is taking measures to mitigate foreign exchange market risks by engaging in foreign exchange hedging activities, which include forward foreign exchange contracts, foreign exchange swaps, and foreign exchange options [1]. Group 1: Stock Performance - As of December 23, 2025, Aidi Tech's stock closed at 43.23 yuan, reflecting a slight increase of 0.02% from the previous trading day [1]. - The stock opened at 43.3 yuan, reached a high of 43.34 yuan, and a low of 42.93 yuan, with a trading volume of 22.68 million yuan and a turnover rate of 0.73% [1]. Group 2: Foreign Exchange Hedging Business - The company announced plans to conduct foreign exchange hedging to avoid risks associated with currency fluctuations, with trading partners being qualified banks and financial institutions [1]. - The maximum margin and premium for the hedging activities will not exceed 15 million yuan or its equivalent in foreign currency, and the highest contract value held on any trading day will not exceed 100 million yuan or its equivalent in foreign currency [1]. - The hedging activities will be valid for 12 months from the date of approval by the board of directors and can be reused [1]. - The funding for these activities will come from the company's own funds and will not involve raised capital [1]. - This initiative has been approved by the board of directors and the audit committee, and does not require submission to the shareholders' meeting for approval [1].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The stock market is in a stalemate between bulls and bears, and the long - end of the bond market is weak. The short - term market is recommended for defensive allocation [1] - For stock index futures, the bearish factors are weakening, and the bullish hotspots are scattered. It is recommended to allocate defensively with high - dividend and price - increase chains as the main lines, and large - cap stocks are better than small - cap stocks [1][7] - For stock index options, the implied volatility is falling to a low level. It is recommended to continue the covered call strategy for thickening [2][7] - For treasury bond futures, the long - end sentiment is still weak. The short - term is favorable for the short - end, while the long - end needs to be cautious [3][8][9] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Views 3.1.1 Stock Index Futures - **Market Performance**: On Monday, the Shanghai Composite Index opened higher and rebounded, standing above 3900 points, with a slight increase in trading volume to 1.88 trillion yuan. The basis and spread of IF, IH, IC, and IM have changed, and the positions have also changed [7] - **Analysis of Factors**: The bearish factors have eased. The Japanese central bank's interest rate hike did not lead to the risk of carry - trade reversal, and the short - covering of IC and IM was dominant. The bullish hotspots are limited, with sectors such as Hainan Free Trade Zone, storage chips, and precious metals being active [7] - **Outlook and Suggestions**: It is expected that there will be no systematic opportunities at the end of the year. It is recommended to allocate defensively with high - dividend and price - increase chains as the main lines, and large - cap stocks are better. The operation suggestion is to hold Red - chip ETF + IC long positions [7] 3.1.2 Stock Index Options - **Market Performance**: On Monday, the overall market liquidity of all varieties decreased, but the trading volume of Science and Technology Innovation ETF options rebounded significantly [2][7] - **Analysis of Factors**: After the Japanese interest rate hike, the market priced in the previous liquidity shock, and the rebound of US technology stocks eased market concerns. Domestically, it is in a policy vacuum period, and the end - of - year liquidity is tight with large - scale restricted - share unlocks expected [2][7] - **Outlook and Suggestions**: It is recommended to focus on defense in the short term. With the implied volatility back to a low - level shock, the covered call strategy can be continued [2][7] 3.1.3 Treasury Bond Futures - **Market Performance**: The main contracts of treasury bond futures closed down collectively yesterday, with the long - end performing relatively weakly. The T main contract opened higher and then fluctuated downwards. The trading volume, positions, spreads, and basis of T, TF, TS, and TL have changed [8] - **Analysis of Factors**: The long - end is weakly volatile. The central bank's unchanged LPR in December has cooled the broad - money expectation, and the stock market's rise has increased the risk appetite, suppressing the bond market. The short - end performs well due to loose funds, and the yield curve steepened yesterday [3][8][9] - **Outlook and Suggestions**: In the short term, loose funds are beneficial to the short - end, while the long - end needs to be cautious. The trend strategy is to be volatile. The hedging strategy is to pay attention to short - hedging at low basis levels. The basis strategy is to appropriately pay attention to basis widening. The curve strategy is that the curve may remain steep [9] 3.2 Economic Calendar - The LPR in China in December remained unchanged. The initial value of the annualized quarterly - on - quarterly growth rate of the US real GDP in the third quarter will be released on December 23, 2025, and the number of initial jobless claims in the US on December 20 will be released on December 24, 2025 [10] 3.3 Important Information and News Tracking - **Personal Credit**: The central bank issued a notice on the one - time credit repair policy. For personal overdue information from January 1, 2020, to December 31, 2025, with a single - amount not exceeding 10,000 yuan, if the overdue debt is fully repaid by March 31, 2026, the information will not be displayed in the credit database [11] - **Toddler Care Service Legislation**: The draft of the Toddler Care Service Law was submitted for the first review. It is of great significance for promoting and standardizing the development of toddler care services and building a fertility - friendly society [11] - **Anti - Subsidy against the EU**: Since December 23, 2025, China has implemented temporary anti - subsidy measures on imported dairy products from the EU in the form of temporary anti - subsidy tax deposits, with the ad - valorem subsidy rate ranging from 21.9% to 42.7% [12] 3.4 Derivatives Market Monitoring - **Stock Index Futures Data**: Not provided in the given content - **Stock Index Options Data**: Not provided in the given content - **Treasury Bond Futures Data**: Not provided in the given content

Group 1: Market Overview - Wall Street is preparing for continued volatility in the U.S. stock market in 2026, with investors oscillating between fear of missing out (FOMO) on AI rebounds and anxiety over potential asset bubbles bursting [1] - The past 18 months have shown a pattern of large sell-offs and rapid reversals, which is expected to continue into 2026, particularly influenced by tech giants at the center of the AI revolution [1] - Despite strong performance in tech stocks in 2025, the divergence between sectors has suppressed actual market volatility, but risks from falling chip stocks could trigger broader market impacts [1] Group 2: Volatility Strategies - UBS strategists highlight that the AI boom's sustainability is crucial for volatility strategies, with high volatility contracts on the Nasdaq 100 index being a key focus [2] - The strategy of buying Nasdaq 100 volatility while selling S&P 500 volatility is viewed as a high-confidence trade for the upcoming year [2] - JPMorgan strategists anticipate that volatility will fluctuate between technical, fundamental, and macroeconomic factors, with the VIX expected to average between 16 and 17 in 2026 [2] Group 3: Options Market Dynamics - Structural imbalances in the options market are reshaping pricing, with a steepening volatility curve expected in 2026 due to an imbalance in investment flows [3] - Quantitative investment strategies and volatility selling strategies are increasing supply on the short end of the curve, while hedging funds are expected to keep long-end volatility elevated [3] - The fear of missing out and conflicting narratives around AI are creating favorable conditions for trading volatility [3] Group 4: Divergence in Trading Strategies - The "diversified trading" strategy, betting on individual stock volatility while keeping index volatility low, may become popular but raises concerns about overcrowding [4] - Some hedge funds are taking contrary positions, suggesting that the strategy may be overly crowded [4] - Despite concerns, capital is expected to continue flowing into diversified strategies, maintaining single-stock volatility premiums over indices [5] Group 5: Re-leveraging Cycle and Tail Risks - A volatility mechanism model based on the yield curve indicates that a flattening curve signals buying volatility, while a steepening curve triggers selling [6] - The model has historically avoided significant drawdowns during market downturns, suggesting that volatility is likely to rise in 2026 [6] - The U.S. is on the brink of a new re-leveraging cycle driven by AI, which could lead to increased credit spreads and equity volatility [6]

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods 1. Model Name: Continuous Hedging Strategy - **Model Construction Idea**: This strategy is based on the analysis of basis convergence factors and optimization strategies, as detailed in the Cinda derivatives research report series. Adjustments are made to the settings for continuous hedging[44] - **Model Construction Process**: - **Backtesting Period**: From July 22, 2022, to December 19, 2025[45] - **Spot Side**: Holding the total return index of the corresponding benchmark index[45] - **Futures Side**: - 70% of the funds are allocated to the spot side - The remaining 30% is used for shorting futures contracts of the same nominal principal (e.g., CSI 500, CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 1000 index futures)[45] - After each rebalancing, the quantities of the spot and futures sides are recalculated based on the product's net value[45] - **Rebalancing Rules**: - Continuously hold quarterly/monthly contracts until the remaining time to maturity is less than two days - Close the position at the closing price on that day and simultaneously short the next quarterly/monthly contract at the closing price[45] - **Assumptions**: Equal principal allocation between the spot and futures sides, excluding transaction fees, impact costs, and the indivisibility of futures contracts[45] 2. Model Name: Minimum Basis Strategy - **Model Construction Idea**: This strategy selects contracts with the smallest annualized basis discount for hedging, as described in the Cinda derivatives research report series[46] - **Model Construction Process**: - **Backtesting Period**: From July 22, 2022, to December 19, 2025[46] - **Spot Side**: Holding the total return index of the corresponding benchmark index[46] - **Futures Side**: - 70% of the funds are allocated to the spot side - The remaining 30% is used for shorting futures contracts of the same nominal principal (e.g., CSI 500, CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 1000 index futures)[46] - After each rebalancing, the quantities of the spot and futures sides are recalculated based on the product's net value[46] - **Rebalancing Rules**: - Calculate the annualized basis for all tradable futures contracts on the day of rebalancing - Select the contract with the smallest basis discount for opening a position - Hold the same contract for eight trading days or until the remaining time to maturity is less than eight days, then select a new contract[46] - **Assumptions**: Equal principal allocation between the spot and futures sides, excluding transaction fees, impact costs, and the indivisibility of futures contracts[46] --- Model Backtesting Results 1. Continuous Hedging Strategy - **CSI 500 Index Futures**: - Annualized Return: -3.42% (monthly), -2.58% (quarterly)[48] - Volatility: 3.79% (monthly), 4.69% (quarterly)[48] - Maximum Drawdown: -11.27% (monthly), -8.74% (quarterly)[48] - Net Value: 0.8886 (monthly), 0.9149 (quarterly)[48] - Annual Turnover: 12 (monthly), 4 (quarterly)[48] - 2025 YTD Return: -6.60% (monthly), -3.91% (quarterly)[48] - **CSI 300 Index Futures**: - Annualized Return: 0.33% (monthly), 0.69% (quarterly)[53] - Volatility: 2.89% (monthly), 3.23% (quarterly)[53] - Maximum Drawdown: -3.95% (monthly), -4.03% (quarterly)[53] - Net Value: 1.0112 (monthly), 1.0236 (quarterly)[53] - Annual Turnover: 12 (monthly), 4 (quarterly)[53] - 2025 YTD Return: -1.21% (monthly), 0.37% (quarterly)[53] - **SSE 50 Index Futures**: - Annualized Return: 1.02% (monthly), 1.95% (quarterly)[57] - Volatility: 2.96% (monthly), 3.36% (quarterly)[57] - Maximum Drawdown: -4.22% (monthly), -3.75% (quarterly)[57] - Net Value: 1.0350 (monthly), 1.0679 (quarterly)[57] - Annual Turnover: 12 (monthly), 4 (quarterly)[57] - 2025 YTD Return: 0.42% (monthly), 1.85% (quarterly)[57] - **CSI 1000 Index Futures**: - Annualized Return: -6.48% (monthly), -4.82% (quarterly)[61] - Volatility: 4.73% (monthly), 5.75% (quarterly)[61] - Maximum Drawdown: -14.00% (monthly), -12.63% (quarterly)[61] - Net Value: 0.8319 (monthly), 0.8498 (quarterly)[61] - Annual Turnover: 12 (monthly), 4 (quarterly)[61] - 2025 YTD Return: -12.98% (monthly), -7.87% (quarterly)[61] 2. Minimum Basis Strategy - **CSI 500 Index Futures**: - Annualized Return: -1.93%[48] - Volatility: 4.49%[48] - Maximum Drawdown: -8.75%[48] - Net Value: 0.9361[48] - Annual Turnover: 16.78[48] - 2025 YTD Return: -4.27%[48] - **CSI 300 Index Futures**: - Annualized Return: 1.09%[53] - Volatility: 3.00%[53] - Maximum Drawdown: -4.06%[53] - Net Value: 1.0376[53] - Annual Turnover: 15.01[53] - 2025 YTD Return: 0.40%[53] - **SSE 50 Index Futures**: - Annualized Return: 1.58%[57] - Volatility: 2.97%[57] - Maximum Drawdown: -3.91%[57] - Net Value: 1.0548[57] - Annual Turnover: 15.60[57] - 2025 YTD Return: 1.36%[57] - **CSI 1000 Index Futures**: - Annualized Return: -4.42%[61] - Volatility: 5.50%[61] - Maximum Drawdown: -11.11%[61] - Net Value: 0.8693[61] - Annual Turnover: 15.73[61] - 2025 YTD Return: -8.19%[61] --- Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods 1. Factor Name: Cinda-VIX - **Factor Construction Idea**: Reflects investors' expectations of future volatility in the options market, with a term structure to capture different time horizons[63] - **Factor Construction Process**: - Based on overseas methodologies, adjusted for China's on-exchange options market[63] - Captures implied volatility from options pricing to reflect market sentiment[63] - **Factor Values** (as of December 19, 2025): - SSE 50 VIX: 15.85 - CSI 300 VIX: 17.10 - CSI 500 VIX: 26.35 - CSI 1000 VIX: 19.91[63] 2. Factor Name: Cinda-SKEW - **Factor Construction Idea**: Measures the skewness of implied volatility across different strike prices, capturing market concerns about tail risks[70] - **Factor Construction Process**: - Analyzes the slope of implied volatility curves for options with different strike prices[70] - Higher SKEW values indicate increased demand for out-of-the-money options, reflecting heightened tail risk concerns[70] - **Factor Values** (as of December 19, 2025): - SSE 50 SKEW: 101.20 - CSI 300 SKEW: 101.08 - CSI 500 SKEW: 102.87 - CSI 1000 SKE

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese government emphasizes the need to steadily develop futures, derivatives, and asset securitization as essential measures to establish a well-structured financial market system and accelerate the construction of a financial powerhouse, which will enhance financial product diversity, improve market completeness, and strengthen financial services for the real economy and risk management [1] Group 1: Derivatives Market - Derivatives, including futures, are crucial financial tools in modern markets, serving functions such as price discovery and risk management. In 2024, the trading volume of derivatives in China's interbank market is expected to exceed 230 trillion yuan [2] - Interest rate derivatives are primarily used for hedging and risk management, helping institutions mitigate risks associated with interest rate fluctuations. For instance, during a period of declining interest rates in 2024, institutions utilized interest rate swaps to prevent potential net value declines and asset sell-offs [2] - The development of the derivatives market in China is lagging, with the daily trading volume of interest rate derivatives compared to the outstanding balance of government bonds at only about 0.8%, significantly lower than the 8%-9% ratio seen in the US and Eurozone [2] Group 2: Regulatory and Market Development - To address inherent risks in economic and financial activities, there is a need for a more comprehensive understanding and improvement of the derivatives market, including optimizing regulatory approaches and allowing more qualified entities to access derivatives [3] - Strengthening regulatory capabilities is essential to avoid systemic risks, enhance transparency, and improve regulatory effectiveness while increasing tolerance for normal market fluctuations [3] - Financial institutions are encouraged to develop internal management systems tailored to derivatives business characteristics, improve hedge accounting, and build a workforce skilled in pricing, valuation, and risk control [3] Group 3: Asset Securitization - Asset securitization plays a vital role in revitalizing existing assets, stabilizing macro leverage ratios, optimizing asset-liability structures, and broadening financing channels. It can convert existing assets into liquid financial products, enhancing market depth and meeting investor demand [4] - Financial institutions can provide financing without expanding their balance sheets, which helps stabilize and reduce leverage, shifting the development model from debt-driven to asset-driven [4] - The asset securitization market in China has entered a normalization phase since 2014, with annual issuance reaching around 2 trillion yuan, but issues such as unclear underlying legal relationships and high issuance management costs hinder market depth [4] Group 4: Future Development of Asset Securitization - The asset securitization market has significant potential in China's economic transformation, necessitating a focus on serving key sectors of the real economy and enhancing market infrastructure for long-term healthy development [5] - There is a need to improve the legal framework and supporting arrangements for the market, ensuring clear rights and obligations among participants and optimizing issuance management mechanisms [5] - Efforts should be made to diversify investors and enhance the secondary market, including building a robust valuation system and improving liquidity in the secondary market [5]

Group 1: Core Insights - The proposal from the Central Committee emphasizes the need to steadily develop futures, derivatives, and asset securitization as essential measures for establishing a well-structured financial market system and accelerating the construction of a financial powerhouse [1] - The derivatives market in China is projected to exceed 230 trillion yuan in trading volume by 2024, highlighting the importance of derivatives in price discovery and risk management [2] - The current development of the derivatives market in China is lagging, with the daily trading volume of interest rate derivatives being only about 0.8% of the outstanding government bonds, compared to 8%-9% for USD and EUR derivatives [2] Group 2: Derivatives Market Development - To enhance the derivatives market, it is crucial to optimize regulatory approaches, allowing more qualified entities like insurance companies and banks to access derivatives, thus diversifying participants and trading scenarios [3] - Strengthening regulatory capabilities is essential to avoid systemic risks, improve transparency, and enhance regulatory effectiveness [3] - Financial institutions should develop internal management systems tailored to derivatives business characteristics, improve hedge accounting, and build talent in pricing and risk control [3] Group 3: Asset Securitization - Asset securitization plays a vital role in revitalizing existing assets, stabilizing macro leverage ratios, optimizing asset-liability structures, and broadening financing channels [4] - The asset securitization market in China has entered a normalization phase since 2014, with annual issuance reaching around 2 trillion yuan, but faces challenges such as unclear underlying legal relationships and high issuance management costs [4] - There is significant potential for asset securitization to support the real economy, particularly in infrastructure, public utilities, and advanced manufacturing sectors [5] Group 4: Future Directions - The focus should be on serving key areas of the real economy, enhancing innovation in standards, financial products, and policy guidance [5] - It is necessary to improve the legal framework and supporting arrangements for the market, ensuring clear rights and obligations among participants [5] - Diversifying investors and enhancing the secondary market's liquidity are critical for the long-term healthy development of the asset securitization market [5]

Group 1: Core Insights - The proposal from the Central Committee emphasizes the need to steadily develop futures, derivatives, and asset securitization as essential measures for establishing a well-structured financial market system and accelerating the construction of a strong financial nation [1] - The derivatives market in China is expected to exceed 230 trillion yuan in trading volume by 2024, highlighting the importance of derivatives in price discovery and risk management [2] - The current development of the derivatives market in China is lagging, with the daily trading volume of interest rate derivatives being only about 0.8% of the outstanding government bonds, compared to 8-9% for USD and EUR derivatives [2] Group 2: Derivatives Market Development - To enhance the derivatives market, it is crucial to optimize regulatory approaches, allowing more qualified entities like insurance companies and banks to engage in derivatives trading [3] - Strengthening regulatory capabilities is essential to avoid systemic risks, improve transparency, and enhance regulatory effectiveness [3] - Financial institutions should develop internal management systems tailored to derivatives business characteristics and improve talent development in pricing and risk control [3] Group 3: Asset Securitization - Asset securitization plays a vital role in revitalizing existing assets, stabilizing macro leverage ratios, optimizing asset-liability structures, and broadening financing channels [4] - The asset securitization market in China has entered a normalization phase since 2014, with annual issuance reaching around 2 trillion yuan, but faces challenges such as unclear legal relationships and high issuance costs [4][5] - To promote the long-term healthy development of the asset securitization market, it is necessary to focus on serving key sectors of the real economy and enhance the legal and regulatory framework [5]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the launch of LCH Listed Rates clearing service in collaboration with FMX, aimed at enhancing margin efficiency and operational effectiveness for members and clients in both over-the-counter and exchange-traded derivatives markets [2]. Group 1: LCH Listed Rates Clearing Service - The LCH Listed Rates clearing service facilitates the clearing of U.S. SOFR and Treasury futures, allowing for margin offsets with SwapClear cleared interest rate swap positions, thereby reducing margin requirements and counterparty risk [2]. - This service aims to create a more resilient and liquid U.S. derivatives market by providing a diverse range of options [3]. - The integration of LCH's trusted clearing infrastructure with the advanced technology of the LSEG ecosystem and BGC Group sets a new standard for the industry [4]. Group 2: Operational Efficiency and Risk Management - The service connects listed interest rate product portfolios with a deep pool of over-the-counter interest rate liquidity, offering margin advantages and enabling the construction of safer and more efficient interest rate swap portfolios [5]. - The automated portfolio margining service operates daily with minimal manual intervention, quickly identifying optimization opportunities and risk reduction across the entire portfolio [5]. - LCH employs a robust and mature risk management framework that adheres to the highest standards [6]. Group 3: LSEG Post-Trade Services - LSEG's post-trade services support both clearing and bilateral markets, continuously innovating to meet evolving market conditions [12]. - The services aim to enhance operational efficiency and achieve capital and cost savings through standardized workflows and optimized processes [15]. - LSEG's comprehensive post-trade ecosystem is built on proven expertise and a commitment to collaborative client engagement [12].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The rebound of the stock index futures market needs to be observed for its sustainability. The stock market rebounded on Wednesday, but there are uncertainties in the late - December trend, and it is recommended to deal with it with high - dividend and price - rising chains [1][7]. - The short - term amplitude of stock index options has increased, and the mid - term situation still needs to be observed. It is recommended to choose protective puts for short - term defense [2][7]. - The sentiment in the bond market has improved. The capital side is expected to continue to support the bond market sentiment, but caution is still needed for the ultra - long - term [3][10]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Market Views Stock Index Futures - The basis of IF, IH, IC, and IM current - month contracts were - 1.68 points, - 4.48 points, 8.97 points, and 6.26 points respectively, with a month - on - month change of - 3.52 points, - 1.09 points, 0.08 points, and - 1.12 points. The spreads between the current - month and next - month contracts of IF, IH, IC, and IM were 21.0 points, 6.2 points, 9.0 points, and 67.0 points respectively, with a month - on - month change of 1.6 points, 0.4 points, - 11.8 points, and - 4.6 points. The total positions of IF, IH, IC, and IM changed by - 628 lots, - 1896 lots, 2748 lots, and - 9704 lots [7]. - The stock market rebounded on Wednesday, with the ChiNext and STAR 50 leading the gains, both rising more than 2%. The TMT and new energy vehicle chains were active, and the market volume rose to 1.83 trillion. The number of limit - up stocks was 57, and the number of limit - down stocks was 25. The relatively small number of limit - up stocks indicated a general rise in the market. ETFs saw significant volume in the afternoon, which may have a positive impact on market sentiment. However, there are uncertainties in the late - December trend, and it is recommended to hold IC and the dividend index [1][7]. Stock Index Options - The total turnover of the options market exceeded 10 billion yuan for the first time in nearly a month. Due to the market rebound, the proportion of intraday call option trading volume increased, the PCR of open interest rebounded, and the ratio PCR decreased significantly. The indicators basically returned to the level of two days ago, showing a volatile sentiment. The volatility of each variety has increased compared to two days ago, but the overall level is still at a relatively low level since July. It is recommended to choose protective puts for short - term defense [2][7]. Treasury Bond Futures - The trading volume and open interest of T, TF, TS, and TL current - quarter contracts changed. The spreads between the current - quarter and next - quarter contracts, cross - variety spreads, and basis also changed. The central bank carried out 46.8 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with 189.8 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing on the same day [7][8]. - Treasury bond futures rose across the board. The T, TF, TS, and TL main contracts rose 0.10%, 0.06%, 0.01%, and 0.63% respectively. The bond market sentiment improved, and the interest rates of all maturities decreased, with the ultra - long - term decreasing relatively more. The capital side was relatively loose, and the market's expectation of loose monetary policy increased, which supported the long - position sentiment in the bond market. The ultra - long - term may have an oversold rebound. It is recommended to adopt a volatile trend strategy, pay attention to short - position hedging at low basis levels, appropriately pay attention to the widening of the basis, and expect the yield curve to remain steep [3][9][10]. 3.2 Economic Calendar - On December 15, 2025, China's reserve currency in November was 3.8019683 trillion yuan, compared with the previous value of 3.7780993 trillion yuan [12]. - On December 16, 2025, the seasonally - adjusted change in non - farm payrolls in the US in November was 64,000, compared with the previous value of - 105,000 and the forecast value of 50,000 [12]. - On December 18, 2025, the seasonally - adjusted year - on - year core CPI in the US in November was not announced yet, with the previous value of 3%. On December 19, 2025, the year - on - year PCE price index in the US in November was not announced yet, with the previous value of 2.79% [12]. 3.3 Important Information and News Tracking - Domestic macro: On December 17, the central bank carried out 46.8 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 143 billion yuan. In the first 11 months, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size in Sichuan increased by 6.8% year - on - year, and the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 5.5% year - on - year. In Shaanxi, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 7.5% year - on - year. In November, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size in Henan increased by 8.0% year - on - year [13]. - Non - ferrous metals: On December 15, the inventories of zinc, lead, tin, and copper reached new highs in several months, with significant increases in changes. The inventories of nickel and aluminum decreased, and the inventories of aluminum alloy and cobalt remained stable at low levels [14]. - Energy and chemical industry: The 2026 regulatory work meeting of the National Energy Administration was held in Beijing. It was required to strengthen energy supervision law enforcement and ensure the safety of the energy and power system [14]. 3.4 Derivatives Market Monitoring No specific data summaries were provided in the given text for this part.