Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.33% on July 25, with 9 out of the 28 sectors rising, led by the electronics and computer sectors, which increased by 1.37% and 1.26% respectively [1] - The construction decoration and building materials sectors experienced the largest declines, with drops of 2.06% and 1.69% respectively [1] - The non-ferrous metals sector decreased by 0.23% [1] Capital Flow Analysis - The main capital outflow from the two markets totaled 49.376 billion yuan, with only 4 sectors seeing net inflows [1] - The computer sector had the highest net inflow of 2.924 billion yuan, followed by the electronics sector with a net inflow of 2.348 billion yuan [1] Non-Ferrous Metals Sector - The non-ferrous metals sector saw a decline of 0.23%, with a total net capital outflow of 6.911 billion yuan [2] - Out of 137 stocks in this sector, 45 stocks rose, including 1 stock that hit the daily limit, while 91 stocks fell [2] - The top three stocks with the highest net inflow were China Rare Earth (2.60 billion yuan), Shenghe Resources (1.42 billion yuan), and Shenzhen New Star (53.49 million yuan) [2] Non-Ferrous Metals Capital Outflow - The stocks with the largest capital outflows included Northern Rare Earth (-1.917 billion yuan), Tianqi Lithium (-477.84 million yuan), and Zhongtung High-Tech (-439.51 million yuan) [3] - The outflow data indicates significant selling pressure on these stocks, with 16 stocks experiencing outflows exceeding 100 million yuan [2][3]

Market Overview - The A-share market saw most major indices decline today, with the Shanghai Composite Index falling by 0.33% to close at 3593.66 points, and the Shenzhen Component Index decreasing by 0.22% to 11168.14 points. The ChiNext Index dropped by 0.23% to 2340.06 points, while the Sci-Tech 50 Index increased by 2.07% to 1054.20 points. Overall, 2724 stocks declined, 2532 stocks rose, and 158 stocks remained flat, with total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets amounting to 12189 billion yuan, a decrease of 6258.16 billion yuan from the previous trading day [1][2]. Industry Performance - Among the primary industries, electronic, computer, real estate, light manufacturing, textile and apparel, and media sectors led the gains, while construction decoration, building materials, food and beverage, coal, comprehensive, and steel industries experienced declines [1][2]. Sector Highlights - The top-performing concept sectors today included GPU, Kimi, multimodal models, ChatGPT, photolithography machines, intelligent agents, servers, selected rare metals, AIGC, artificial intelligence, machine vision, ASIC chips, selected semiconductors, Xiaohongshu platform, and Pinduoduo partners [2].

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index decreased by 0.29% as of 13:58, with a trading volume of 1,129.57 million shares and a turnover of 1,398.80 billion yuan, representing a decrease of 6.36% compared to the previous trading day [1]. Industry Performance - The top-performing sectors included: - Computer: Increased by 0.83% with a turnover of 132.30 billion yuan, led by Tianrun Technology, which rose by 26.67% [1]. - Real Estate: Increased by 0.60% with a turnover of 18.73 billion yuan, led by Zhangjiang Hi-Tech, which rose by 7.45% [1]. - Textile and Apparel: Increased by 0.55% with a turnover of 10.91 billion yuan, led by Red Dragonfly, which rose by 9.95% [1]. - The sectors with the largest declines included: - Building Materials: Decreased by 1.91% with a turnover of 26.66 billion yuan, led by Huaxin Cement, which fell by 9.57% [2]. - Building Decoration: Decreased by 1.81% with a turnover of 46.99 billion yuan, led by Zhubo Design, which fell by 14.71% [2]. - Comprehensive: Decreased by 1.39% with a turnover of 2.83 billion yuan, led by Nanjing Xinbai, which fell by 7.58% [2]. Summary of Key Stocks - Leading stocks in the computer sector included Tianrun Technology with a significant increase of 26.67% [1]. - In the real estate sector, Zhangjiang Hi-Tech showed a notable rise of 7.45% [1]. - Red Dragonfly in the textile and apparel sector also performed well, increasing by 9.95% [1].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the cement industry is expected to see price increases as demand enters a peak season, with current valuations remaining low at a price-to-book ratio of 0.7, which is at the 17th percentile over the past three years [1] - The cement industry is projected to achieve a total profit of 15-16 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, marking a significant turnaround from losses, driven by factors such as increased pricing awareness among leading companies, a year-on-year increase in average cement prices by approximately 20 yuan per ton, and a 4.3% year-on-year decline in cement production [1] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology will implement a new round of growth stabilization plans for the building materials industry, aiming to optimize supply and eliminate outdated production capacity, which is expected to improve the supply-demand dynamics in the industry [1] Group 2 - The building materials ETF (159745) tracks the CSI Building Materials Index (931009), which reflects the overall performance of listed companies in the building materials sector, including cement, glass, and new building materials [1] - Investors without stock accounts can consider the Guotai CSI All-Share Building Materials ETF Initiated Link A (013019) and Link C (013020) for exposure to the building materials sector [1]

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.34% today, with a trading volume of 915.04 million shares and a turnover of 1,124.13 billion yuan, a decrease of 0.75% compared to the previous trading day [1]. Industry Performance - The top-performing industries included: - Light Industry Manufacturing: increased by 0.54% with a turnover of 12.62 billion yuan, led by Tianan New Material, which rose by 10.05% [1]. - Computer: increased by 0.52% with a turnover of 107.90 billion yuan, led by Tianrun Technology, which rose by 22.94% [1]. - Textile and Apparel: increased by 0.42% with a turnover of 8.71 billion yuan, led by Hongqingting, which rose by 7.58% [1]. - The worst-performing industries included: - Building Decoration: decreased by 1.87% with a turnover of 38.46 billion yuan, led by Deep Water Planning Institute, which fell by 14.62% [2]. - Building Materials: decreased by 1.69% with a turnover of 19.11 billion yuan, led by Huaxin Cement, which fell by 9.25% [2]. - Comprehensive: decreased by 1.21% with a turnover of 2.34 billion yuan, led by Nanjing New Hundred, which fell by 6.38% [2]. Summary of Key Stocks - Notable gainers included: - Tianan New Material (Light Industry Manufacturing) with a gain of 10.05% [1]. - Tianrun Technology (Computer) with a gain of 22.94% [1]. - Hongqingting (Textile and Apparel) with a gain of 7.58% [1]. - Notable decliners included: - Deep Water Planning Institute (Building Decoration) with a decline of 14.62% [2]. - Huaxin Cement (Building Materials) with a decline of 9.25% [2]. - Nanjing New Hundred (Comprehensive) with a decline of 6.38% [2].

Group 1 - The U.S. President Trump released an AI action plan aimed at maintaining the country's leading position in artificial intelligence over China, with China advocating for a collaborative approach to AI development [2] - An investigation team has been established in Inner Mongolia to determine the cause of a mining accident that resulted in six deaths and one injury [3][4] - The National Development and Reform Commission announced that 735 billion yuan of central budget investment has been allocated for 2025, focusing on various sectors including infrastructure and social welfare [3][4] Group 2 - The EU has approved a retaliatory tariff list against the U.S. totaling 93 billion euros, affecting high-value industrial products such as aircraft and automobiles [6] - The National Medical Insurance Administration has initiated the 11th batch of centralized procurement, optimizing procurement rules to ensure quality and prevent price wars [7] - The National Development and Reform Commission and the State Administration for Market Regulation are drafting amendments to the pricing law to address "involution" in competition [8] Group 3 - Domestic gold jewelry consumption decreased by 26% in the first half of the year, while gold production remained stable with a slight increase in imports [9] - A new national standard for electric bicycles will be implemented on September 1, aiming to enhance safety and compliance across the industry [10] - The takeaway industry is facing challenges due to price wars, with merchants reporting a significant drop in income and customer retention [11] Group 4 - The travel photography brand "Platinum Photography" has been reported missing, with commitments made to refund customers for unfulfilled services [18] - The company "Sino Medical" expects a 12.53% increase in revenue for the first half of 2025, driven by the sales growth of coronary stent products [25] - "Zhongqi New Materials" signed a mining rights transfer contract, increasing its resource reserves and production capacity [26]

2025 年 07 月 24 日 策略研究团队 "反内卷"的行情阶段，及后续展望 ——投资策略专题 韦冀星（分析师） 简宇涵（分析师） weijixing@kysec.cn jianyuhan@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790525050005 深度解析"反内卷"行情的持续性 反内卷行情持续发酵存在三大原因：①反内卷政策层级高、频次高，深受市场关 注；背后反映的是高层定调，随后经历了三轮的演变及层层加码。②反内卷行业筹 码干净，存在较强回补动力；从基金二季报角度来看，典型的反内卷行业，基金 配置比例仍然低于自由流通市值比例，筹码出清干净。③当前市场风险偏好高位， 对利好敏感；当前，政策稳定预期、市场资金承载力增强、投资者活跃度提升， 以及主题主线的持续明确，正逐步成为驱动 A 股走强的核心动因。以上三点也 构成了反内卷的三大优势，也解释了近期反内卷行情能持续发酵的原因。 然而，市场对反内卷仍然存疑：是否存在强有力的财政支持？狭义的"反内卷" 行情更多可以理解为一种收缩型政策，无论对总量还是结构，带来的效果更容易 是"触底"，而非"反转"。在高质量发展的时代背景下，较难出现一次性的花大 价钱办大事，反内卷 ...

Core Viewpoint - Guotong Co., Ltd. has experienced significant stock price fluctuations, achieving three limit-up days within four trading days, with a cumulative increase of 24.80% and a turnover rate of 65.60% [2] Stock Performance - As of 10:06, the stock's trading volume reached 24.53 million shares, with a transaction amount of 322 million yuan, resulting in a turnover rate of 13.20% [2] - The latest total market capitalization of A-shares is 2.6 billion yuan [2] Financial Performance - The company reported a total operating revenue of 2.7 million yuan for Q1, a year-on-year decrease of 48.75%, and a net profit of -3.2 million yuan, down 51.15% year-on-year [2] - On July 15, the company announced a half-year performance forecast, expecting a net profit ranging from -3.2 million yuan to -2 million yuan, with a year-on-year change of 30.96% to 56.85% [2] Trading Data - The stock's daily performance over recent days shows fluctuations, including a drop of 6.19% on July 23, with a net outflow of 66.24 million yuan from main funds [2] - The stock recorded a 9.98% increase on July 22, with a net outflow of 1.65 million yuan [2] - On July 21, the stock rose by 9.99% with a net inflow of 53.35 million yuan [2]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2) Core View of the Report - Overseas, the trade agreement between the US and Japan and the positive negotiations with the EU boosted investor confidence, leading to a collective rise in the three major US stock indices. Domestically, the strong upward movement of the financial sector provided strong support for the index, but overall market sentiment tended to be cautious, with signs of profit - taking in previously strongly rebounding sectors. It is expected that the cautious market sentiment will continue today. Although the view of strategically bullish on stock indices in the medium - to - long term is maintained, short - term operations need to be cautious [1][2][3] 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - **International Trade**: The US and Japan reached a trade agreement. The "reciprocal tariff" rate imposed by the US on Japan will be reduced from 25% to 15%. Japan will increase the import of US rice under the "minimum access system" and commit to investing $550 billion in the US. Japan will purchase $8 billion worth of US goods. The EU and the US are moving towards an agreement that will set a 15% tariff rate for most products. China and the US will hold economic and trade talks in Sweden from July 27th to 30th [1] - **Stock Market**: In the domestic spot market, the three major A - share indices rose and then fell. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.01% to close at 3582.30 points, and the ChiNext Index fell 0.01%. Sector indices mostly declined, with non - bank finance, beauty care, and household appliances leading the gains, while building materials, national defense and military industry, machinery, and power equipment sectors leading the losses. The trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets remained at 1.9 trillion yuan. In the overseas market, the three major US stock indices all closed higher, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average rising 1.14% to close at 45010.29 points [2] - **Futures Market**: In the futures market, the basis of stock index futures showed differentiation, with only the IM discount continuing to repair. In terms of trading volume and open interest, both the trading volume and open interest of stock index futures increased [2] Strategy - Overseas events boosted investor confidence, while domestic market sentiment was cautious. Although the medium - to - long - term view is bullish on stock indices, short - term operations should be cautious [3] Chart Summary - **Macroeconomic Charts**: Include charts showing the relationship between the US dollar index and A - share trends, US Treasury yields and A - share trends, RMB exchange rates and A - share trends, and US Treasury yields and A - share style trends [7][8][10] - **Spot Market Tracking Charts**: The table shows the daily performance of major domestic stock indices on July 23, 2025, and July 22, 2025, including the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, ChiNext Index, etc. There are also charts of the trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets and margin trading balances [13][14] - **Stock Index Futures Tracking Charts**: Tables show the trading volume and open interest of stock index futures (IF, IH, IC, IM), the basis of stock index futures (including different contract periods), and the inter - period spreads of stock index futures. There are also corresponding charts for each item [18][40][50]

Core Viewpoint - The construction materials ETF (159745) has risen over 2.2%, with seasonal price pressures but increasing expectations for recovery in peak season [1] Group 1: Industry Insights - Cement prices are expected to increase after the demand surge in August, with the current industry valuation at a low point (PB at 0.7x, in the 17th percentile over the past three years) [1] - Policy expectations are rising, coupled with the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology's efforts to promote stable growth in the construction materials sector, which may catalyze valuation recovery [1] - The industry is projected to achieve a total profit of 15-16 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, with significant performance improvements among leading companies [1] Group 2: Factors Influencing Performance - Key factors contributing to performance improvement include: 1. Enhanced awareness among companies regarding price stability and profit increase, with average cement prices rising approximately 20 yuan/ton year-on-year [1] 2. Narrowing demand decline, with production down 4.3% year-on-year [1] 3. Decrease in coal costs by about 200 yuan/ton year-on-year [1] - The trend of profit recovery in the industry is becoming clear due to policy-driven supply-side optimization and the approaching peak demand season [1] Group 3: Investment Options - The construction materials ETF (159745) tracks the construction materials index (931009), which selects listed companies engaged in the production and sales of construction materials, reflecting the overall performance of the sector [1] - Investors without stock accounts can consider the Guotai CSI All-Share Construction Materials ETF Initiated Link A (013019) and Guotai CSI All-Share Construction Materials ETF Initiated Link C (013020) [1]