7月29日，在国家能源集团新疆红沙泉二号露天煤矿（以下简称"红二矿"），58台无人驾驶矿卡正高效运转，其中52台为纯电动车型， 标志着该矿在纯电无人驾驶运输领域取得突破性进展。截至目前，这批无人矿卡已累计安全运行50万公里，并实现运输环节零碳排放，为 我国露天煤矿智能化、绿色化运输提供了可借鉴的实践经验。 纯电+无人驾驶，破解矿山运输痛点 红二矿年产能2000万吨，土石方剥离与煤炭运输任务繁重。传统燃油矿卡不仅能耗高、排放量大，且驾驶员长期在恶劣环境下作业， 存在安全与用工难题。2025年1月起，该矿分批投用58台无人驾驶矿卡，其中52台采用纯电驱动，有效解决了燃油成本高、碳排放大的行 业痛点。 "批量应用纯电无人驾驶矿卡，实现了运输环节零碳智能，不仅从根本上降低了传统矿山运输中的安全风险，运输效率也得到了显著提 升，展现了现代矿山绿色化、智能化发展的新方向。"红二矿总工程师白晟华介绍。依托智能调度系统，无人矿卡可自主规划最优路径，精 准装卸，并实时感知路况，大幅提升运输安全性和稳定性。 智能调度+远程监控，改善矿山工作模式 在红二矿智能云控中心，操作人员通过大屏实时监控矿卡运行状态，360°视角让远程操控如 ...

| 代码 | 名称 | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量(手) | 成交额(元) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 600575 | 淮河能源 | 3.51 | -0.28% | 27.25万 | 9555.07万 | | 600925 | 苏能股份 | 4.98 | -0.20% | 19.88万 | 9865.87万 | | 002128 | 电投能源 | 20.08 | -0.05% | 9.62万 | 1.92亿 | | 600403 | 大有能源 | 3.85 | 0.00% | 14.00万 | 5360.49万 | | 600985 | 淮北矿业 | 12.38 | 0.00% | 14.57万 | 1.80亿 | | 600546 | 山煤国际 | 9.64 | 0.21% | 17.09万 | 1.64亿 | | 601918 | 新集能源 | 6.47 | 0.31% | 39.50万 | 2.54亿 | | 600397 | 安源煤业 | 6.14 | 0.33% | 11.97万 | 7284.18万 | | 600508 | 上海能源 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the coal mining industry, indicating a positive outlook for the sector's fundamentals and expectations for the industry index to outperform the benchmark index [3][11]. Core Insights - The "anti-involution" policy is expected to stabilize thermal coal prices, while coking coal is anticipated to contribute to elastic growth due to recent price adjustments and market dynamics [2][6]. - The coal supply-demand situation has been generally relaxed this year, with prices declining and some coal mines exceeding their announced production capacities, prompting regulatory actions to ensure orderly supply [1][2]. - The recent price increases in the coking market, following a series of price hikes, indicate a recovery in market sentiment and potential for further price rebounds in the future [6][7]. Summary by Sections Thermal Coal - The price of thermal coal has been under pressure, with the Qinhuangdao Shanxi Q5500 mixed coal price dropping to 610 RMB/ton in the first half of 2025, leading to some coal mines operating at a loss [2]. - The "anti-involution" policy aims to regulate production and stabilize prices, with expectations that the second quarter of 2025 may represent a bottom for the coal industry [2][6]. Coking Coal - Coking coal prices have seen significant declines, with prices dropping from 1950 RMB/ton in October 2024 to 1250 RMB/ton by June 2025, marking an eight-year low [6]. - Recent price increases in the coking market, including a 50 RMB/ton rise following the first round of price hikes, suggest a recovery in market conditions and potential for further growth [6][7]. Key Companies to Watch - For thermal coal, recommended companies include China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry, China Coal Energy, Yanzhou Coal Mining, Xinji Energy, and Jinkong Coal Industry [6]. - For coking coal, recommended companies include Shanxi Coking Coal, Lu'an Environmental Energy, Pingdingshan Coal, and Huaibei Mining [6].

Strategy Overview - The report focuses on constructing a strategy portfolio based on industry and thematic ETFs, utilizing quantitative analysis from previous strategy reports [2]. Strategy Update - For the week of August 4, 2025, the model recommends increasing allocations to sectors such as electricity, joint-stock banks, and liquor, while continuing to hold real estate and agriculture ETFs [2]. - New additions include Green Power ETF, Bank ETF, and Liquor ETF, with ongoing holdings in Real Estate ETF and Agriculture ETF [2]. - As of the last weekend, some ETFs and index trading timing signals provided daily or weekly risk alerts [2]. Performance Tracking - From July 28 to August 1, 2025, the strategy recorded a cumulative net return of approximately -2.19%, with an excess return of about -0.53% compared to the CSI 300 ETF [2]. - Since October 14, 2024, the cumulative return of the strategy outside the sample period is approximately 4.34%, with an excess return of about -2.17% relative to the CSI 300 ETF [2].

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods 1. Model Name: Quantitative Market Trend Judgment Framework - **Model Construction Idea**: The framework identifies the dominant market style by comparing the intrinsic attributes of assets, which are tied to their industry lifecycle stages. It prioritizes assets based on the sequence of growth rate (g) > return on equity (ROE) > dividend yield (D) to determine the most advantageous assets and focuses on the most promising sectors[5][6][9] - **Model Construction Process**: 1. Define five style stages for equity assets: external growth, quality growth, quality dividend, value dividend, and distressed value[5] 2. Compare assets globally to identify advantageous ones based on their intrinsic characteristics[5] 3. Use the priority sequence g > ROE > D to evaluate whether good assets exist and whether they are overvalued[5][6] 4. Focus on sectors with the most advantageous characteristics in the current market[5][6] - **Model Evaluation**: The framework has demonstrated strong explanatory power for A-share market style rotations since 2009, achieving an annualized return of 26.70%[16] 2. Model Name: Asset Comparison Strategy - **Model Construction Idea**: This model categorizes assets into primary and secondary groups. Primary assets include actual growth, expected growth, and profitability assets. Secondary assets are prioritized based on crowding levels and fundamental factors[9] - **Model Construction Process**: 1. Classify assets into primary (expected growth, actual growth, profitability) and secondary (quality dividend, value dividend, distressed value) categories[9] 2. Allocate market funds to primary assets when any of them show an advantage; otherwise, shift to secondary assets[9] 3. Rank secondary assets by crowding levels and fundamental factors, with the order: quality dividend > value dividend > distressed value[9] --- Model Backtesting Results 1. Quantitative Market Trend Judgment Framework - Annualized return: 26.70% since 2009[16] - Historical performance: Positive excess returns in most years, with limited effectiveness in 2011, 2012, 2014, and 2016[16][19] - Excess returns by year: - 2009: 51% - 2010: 14% - 2013: 36% - 2017: 27% - 2020: 44% - 2022: 62%[19] --- Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods 1. Factor Name: Expected Growth (gf) - **Factor Construction Idea**: Measures the expected growth rate based on analysts' forecasts, regardless of the industry lifecycle stage[6] - **Factor Construction Process**: 1. Use analysts' forecasted growth rates as the primary input[6] 2. Calculate the spread (Δgf) between top and bottom groups to assess the trend of expected growth[21] - **Factor Evaluation**: The factor has shown consistent expansion, with top groups driving the increase, indicating analysts' optimism about high-growth sectors[21] 2. Factor Name: Actual Growth (g) - **Factor Construction Idea**: Focuses on performance momentum (Δg) during transition and growth phases[6] - **Factor Construction Process**: 1. Calculate the spread (Δg) between top and bottom groups based on actual growth rates[25] 2. Monitor the trend of Δg to identify growth opportunities in the market[25] - **Factor Evaluation**: The factor has shown gradual expansion, with opportunities in sectors maintaining strong momentum despite a slowdown in top-tier growth[25] 3. Factor Name: Profitability (ROE) - **Factor Construction Idea**: Evaluates valuation levels using the PB-ROE framework, focusing on mature industries[6] - **Factor Construction Process**: 1. Calculate the PB-ROE residuals for each industry[40] 2. Rank industries based on residuals to identify undervalued high-ROE sectors[40] - **Factor Evaluation**: The factor's advantage has declined, and its crowding level remains low, suggesting limited opportunities in the current market[28] 4. Factor Name: Quality Dividend (DP+ROE) - **Factor Construction Idea**: Combines dividend yield (DP) and ROE to identify high-quality dividend-paying industries[6] - **Factor Construction Process**: 1. Calculate DP and ROE scores for each industry[43] 2. Combine the scores to rank industries and select the top-performing ones[43] - **Factor Evaluation**: The factor has shown significant excess returns in specific years, such as 2016, 2017, and 2023[43] 5. Factor Name: Value Dividend (DP+BP) - **Factor Construction Idea**: Combines dividend yield (DP) and book-to-price ratio (BP) to identify undervalued dividend-paying industries[6] - **Factor Construction Process**: 1. Calculate DP and BP scores for each industry[47] 2. Combine the scores to rank industries and select the top-performing ones[47] - **Factor Evaluation**: The factor has demonstrated strong excess returns in years like 2009, 2017, and 2021-2023[47] 6. Factor Name: Distressed Value (PB+SIZE) - **Factor Construction Idea**: Identifies industries with low price-to-book ratios (PB) and small market capitalization (SIZE), focusing on stagnation and recession phases[6] - **Factor Construction Process**: 1. Calculate PB and SIZE scores for each industry[51] 2. Combine the scores to rank industries and select the lowest-scoring ones[51] - **Factor Evaluation**: The factor has shown significant excess returns during periods like 2015-2016 and 2021-2023[51] --- Factor Backtesting Results 1. Expected Growth (gf) - Δgf continues to expand, driven by top-tier groups, indicating analysts' optimism about high-growth sectors[21] 2. Actual Growth (g) - Δg shows gradual expansion, with opportunities in sectors maintaining strong momentum despite a slowdown in top-tier growth[25] 3. Profitability (ROE) - ROE advantage continues to decline, with low crowding levels and limited opportunities in the current market[28] 4. Quality Dividend (DP+ROE) - Significant excess returns in 2016, 2017, and 2023[43] 5. Value Dividend (DP+BP) - Strong excess returns in 2009, 2017, and 2021-2023[47] 6. Distressed Value (PB+SIZE) - Significant excess returns during 2015-2016 and 2021-2023[51]

本周港口煤价延续上涨，海外油、气价格反弹 查看完整报告 点击注册小程序 特别申明： 本订阅号中所涉及的证券研究信息由光大证券研究所编写，仅面向光大证券专业投资者客户，用作新媒体形势下研究 信息和研究观点的沟通交流。非光大证券专业投资者客户，请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。本订阅号 难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不便，敬请谅解。光大证券研究所不会因关注、收到或阅读本订阅号推送内容而视相 关人员为光大证券的客户。 报告摘要 港口库存显著下降，动力煤价格旺季持续上行 （1）本周秦皇岛港口动力煤平仓价（5500大卡周度平均值）环比+9元/吨（+1.36%），已连续6周维持上行态 势；（2）本周秦皇岛港口煤炭库存522 万吨，环比-10.77%，港口库存迅速下降至同期正常水平（此前持续在 同期最高水平或接近同期最高水平），显示出当前煤炭供需阶段性呈现偏紧局面；（3）在"反内卷"、"查超 产"的背景下，煤炭供需格局有望持续优化，港口煤价有望延续上行态势。 免责声明 本订阅号是光大证券股份有限公司研究所（以下简称"光大证券研究所"）依法设立、独立 运营的官方唯一订阅号。其他任何以光大证券研究所名义注册的、或含有"光 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for key companies in the coal mining sector, including China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal and Energy, and others [5][11]. Core Viewpoints - China Shenhua is initiating a large-scale asset acquisition, which is expected to enhance its coal resource strategic reserves and integrated operational capabilities, deepening its energy value chain layout [2][3]. - The coal mining industry is experiencing a tightening supply due to adverse weather conditions affecting production, leading to an upward trend in coal prices [8][17]. - The report highlights a trend of mergers and acquisitions in the coal sector, driven by government policies encouraging asset consolidation among state-owned enterprises [3][4]. Summary by Sections Market Overview - The CITIC Coal Index decreased by 0.94% during the week of July 25 to August 1, 2025, underperforming the CSI 300 Index by 2.81 percentage points [1][83]. - As of August 1, the price of thermal coal at North Port was reported at 657 CNY/ton, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 7 CNY/ton [8][42]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - Supply constraints are evident as rainfall has impacted production in key coal mining regions, leading to a decrease in coal output and a tightening market [8][17]. - The utilization rate of coal mines in the "Three West" regions is reported at 89.3%, down 2.1 percentage points week-on-week, indicating reduced production capacity [8][17]. Price Trends - The report notes that the price of thermal coal is expected to continue rising due to supply tightness, although future price increases may be limited by stagnant demand [8][42]. - The report also indicates that the price of coking coal has stabilized, with some fluctuations due to market sentiment and supply chain dynamics [12][45]. Key Company Announcements - China Shenhua is planning to acquire assets from the State Energy Group, which includes various coal and energy-related companies, totaling 13 entities [1][16]. - The report emphasizes the importance of asset injection as a means for listed companies to optimize resource allocation and enhance competitiveness [2][3]. Investment Strategy - The report recommends focusing on companies with strong performance metrics, such as China Shenhua and Shaanxi Coal and Energy, while also highlighting potential opportunities in companies undergoing restructuring [12][11].

Group 1 - The July Politburo meeting decided to hold the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee in October to discuss the "14th Five-Year Plan" proposals, emphasizing the need for "solid foundation and comprehensive efforts" for achieving socialist modernization [12][13] - The macro policy focus has shifted from "quantity" to "quality," with the removal of phrases like "timely reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts," indicating a more cautious approach to economic stimulus [12][13] - The "de-rolling" policy has been officially defined, with a focus on "key industries" and a shift away from real estate-related discussions, reflecting a new development model in the real estate sector [13] Group 2 - The manufacturing PMI for July was reported at 49.3%, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points, indicating a contraction in the manufacturing sector, with both supply and demand showing signs of decline [14] - Recent supply-demand policies have led to price increases in some commodities, which may boost PPI expectations; however, historical data suggests that price increases driven by strong reality tend to be more sustainable than those driven by strong expectations [14][15] Group 3 - The recent US-China trade talks have resulted in a temporary suspension of tariffs, but the long-term risks associated with reciprocal tariffs should not be underestimated, as the situation remains fluid and subject to change [17][20] - The trade talks have not yielded unexpected results, merely postponing risk points by 90 days, and the experience from the 2018 trade war indicates that the US stance can be unpredictable [20] Group 4 - The A-share market has seen a significant improvement in liquidity, with financing balances exceeding 2024 levels, indicating a potential for continued market performance [22] - The relationship between the stock and bond markets is characterized by a "see-saw" effect, where funds are shifting from the bond market to the stock market, driven by improved expectations for fundamentals [22][23] Group 5 - The overall profit expectations for A-shares in 2025 are likely to be weak, with a downward trend expected in the second and third quarters, followed by a potential recovery in the fourth quarter [25] - The profit growth in A-shares is primarily driven by year-on-year net profit margin increases, while revenue growth remains under pressure, indicating a challenging demand environment [25][27] Group 6 - The upcoming mid-year report disclosures in August are expected to enhance the importance of performance trading, with stocks showing high growth and strong opening characteristics likely to yield good returns [30] - Key industries to focus on in August include motorcycles and others, optical electronics, traditional Chinese medicine, lighting equipment, and agriculture [30][36] Group 7 - The recommended stocks for August include Lu'an Huanneng, which is positioned as a top choice for coking coal due to its resilient demand and potential for production capacity increases [37][38] - China Aluminum is highlighted for its strong position in the global aluminum industry, with expected profit increases driven by rising production volumes [37]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Maintain Buy" [4] Core Viewpoints - Global new coal mining capacity is expected to drop to a ten-year low of 105 million tons in 2024, a decrease of 46% compared to 2023, representing the smallest increase in a decade [2] - The slowdown in new capacity may reflect delays in expansion approvals, the inherent long-term nature of coal mine development, and a potential easing of supply-demand pressures after a surge in capacity in the previous two years due to special events [2] Summary by Sections Coal Mining Capacity - In 2024, global new coal mining capacity is projected at approximately 105 million tons, accounting for only 1% of the total global coal production capacity of 8.9 billion tons [2] Price Trends - As of August 1, 2025, coal prices at various ports have shown significant fluctuations, with European ARA port coal prices at $108.5 per ton (up 16.98% week-on-week), Newcastle port coal at $117.25 per ton (up 1.52%), and IPE South African Richards Bay coal futures at $93.6 per ton (down 1.04%) [1][39] Investment Recommendations - Key recommendations include major coal enterprises such as China Coal Energy (H+A) and China Shenhua (H+A), as well as turnaround opportunities like China Qinfa [3] - Other recommended stocks include high-performing companies such as Shaanxi Coal and Electricity, China Power Investment, Huai Bei Mining, and New Energy [3] Market Dynamics - The report indicates that many countries are still planning to build new coal mines, with a total capacity of 2.27 billion tons, where new thermal coal capacity dominates, accounting for 75% of the proposed projects [11] - China, India, Australia, and Russia account for nearly 90% of the planned development projects, with China alone accounting for 1.35 billion tons of the proposed capacity [11]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the coal mining industry is "Positive" [2] Core Viewpoints - The current phase is the early stage of a new upward cycle in the coal economy, driven by both fundamental and policy factors, making it an opportune time to invest in the coal sector during price corrections [11][12] - The supply side is tightening due to a decrease in coal mine capacity utilization rates, while demand is increasing, particularly in inland provinces [11][12] - The coal price has established a new support level, and high-quality coal companies are characterized by strong profitability, cash flow, return on equity (ROE), and dividends [11][12] Summary by Sections Coal Price Tracking - As of August 2, the market price for Qinhuangdao port thermal coal (Q5500) is 655 CNY/ton, up 10 CNY/ton week-on-week [3][28] - The price for coking coal at Jingtang port remains stable at 1650 CNY/ton [30] Supply and Demand Tracking - The capacity utilization rate for sample thermal coal mines is 90.9%, down 3.1 percentage points week-on-week [11][45] - Daily coal consumption in inland provinces increased by 44.4 thousand tons/day (+13.05%) [11][46] - The daily coal consumption in coastal provinces rose by 1.0 thousand tons/day (+0.45%) [11][46] Inventory Situation - As of July 31, coal inventory in inland provinces decreased by 1.20% week-on-week, while daily consumption increased [46] - Coastal provinces saw a 1.08% decrease in coal inventory week-on-week [46] Company Performance - The coal sector is characterized by high performance, cash flow, and dividends, with a focus on companies like China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal and Energy, and others [12][13]