化工月报 | 2026-01-04 新装置计划投产，1月EG累库压力仍偏大 核心观点 市场要闻与数据 库存：根据 CCF 每周一发布的数据，MEG 华东主港库存为84.4万吨（环比+2.5万吨）；根据隆众每周四发布的数 据， MEG 华东主港库存为64.5万吨（环比+2.8万吨）。12月，EG平衡表累库20万吨附近，乙二醇港口库存也继续 回升，聚酯工厂EG库存也提升至偏高位。1月新装置存投产预期，同时检修计划偏少，平衡表维持累库预期，预计 在20万吨附近，港口库存压力预计将继续提升。 进出口：中国乙二醇月度进口量583398吨（环比-70764吨）；中国乙二醇月度出口量17042吨（环比+5653吨）。进 口市场来看，11月净进口量56.6万吨，部分货源延迟至12月到港。根据已到船及未来船期情况，预估 12月份进口 量在80万吨附近，1月前进口压力都偏大，2月后将有所缓解。 市场分析 国内供应端，合成气制负荷挤出不明显，国内乙二醇负荷回升至7成以上高位，1~2月高供应和需求转弱下累库压 力仍大；海外供应方面，随着沙特、台湾装置检修，后续2月后进口压力将有所缓解。需求端，织造订单边际转弱 负荷加速下滑，效益转弱 ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall production of propylene remains at a high level, with stable and rising upstream operations. There is a short - term lack of obvious PDH loss - induced maintenance, but some PDH units are expected to be maintained in January, which may lead to a temporary shortage in the propylene market supply. The market is waiting for the fulfillment of the expected increase in maintenance in the first quarter [4]. - Downstream device planned maintenance is limited, mainly for rigid - demand procurement. The spread between PP powder and propylene has rebounded, leading some PP powder units that purchase propylene externally to resume production, and the demand for propylene on the PP side is expected to increase. The load of the octanol device has been slightly increased due to the increased operation of the Jianlan device. The profits of PO, acrylic acid, and butanol are acceptable, and their operations are expected to rise steadily. However, the overall increase in demand - side support may be limited [4]. - The recent trend of international oil prices is weak, but geopolitical tensions are rising, which may increase oil - price fluctuations. Saudi Aramco has announced that the official CP price for January is $525/ton, a month - on - month increase of $30/ton, exceeding market expectations. The price of propane in the external market is expected to rise significantly, and the cost - side support has recently strengthened. The market should pay attention to cost - side changes and the fulfillment of PDH device maintenance [5]. - The strategy suggests a wait - and - see approach for single - side trading. In the short term, cost - side support has increased, but supply - demand drivers are limited, and the market may fluctuate within a range. Wait for the fulfillment of PDH device maintenance. For inter - period trading, consider shorting the PL03 - 05 spread when it is high. There is no suggestion for cross - variety trading [6]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs I. Basis Strategy Analysis - The basis of propylene in the mainstream Shandong region against the PL2603 contract fluctuated widely in December. The basis strengthened in the early stage due to the divergence between the spot and futures trends of propylene, with the futures price continuously falling due to weak supply - demand expectations. The weakening of the basis in the later stage was mainly due to the boost in market sentiment and the recovery of cost - side support, which led to a rebound in the futures price and a structure where the futures price was higher than the spot price. The basis in East China also fluctuated widely between 50 and 300 [11]. - There is a strong expectation of PDH device maintenance in the first quarter, and the price of propane on the cost side is rising. In the short term, the basis may continue to fluctuate weakly. The basis is expected to be mainly weakly fluctuating, and for the inter - period spread, consider shorting the PL03 - 05 spread when it is high [11]. II. Propylene Futures Price, Basis, and Inter - period Spread No specific summary information other than the data sources and chart titles is provided in the given text. III. Propylene Supply - As of December 2025, China's monthly propylene production was 5.4575 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 14.33%. The propylene operating rate was 75.00% (+0.89%), among which the operating rate of PDH - produced propylene was 76.36% (+1.36%), the operating rate of methanol - to - propylene was 87.81% (-0.51%), and the operating rate of major refineries was 75.11% (+0.00) [1]. - The expected new production capacity of 500,000 tons of BASF in Guangdong has been realized. The production pressure in the first quarter is relatively small, but 2026 is still a domestic propylene production cycle, with an expected annual new production capacity of 7.36 million tons, and the nominal production capacity growth rate is 9.3% (the actual production capacity growth rate weighted by the production time is about 4.4%), significantly lower than the production capacity growth rate in 2025 [1]. - In terms of existing device maintenance, some PDH devices are expected to stop in January. Currently, one PDH unit of Jinneng Chemical and the PDH device of Guangxi Hongyi are under maintenance. Dongming Petrochemical and Binhuaxin Materials will gradually resume external sales after restarting. The planned maintenance volume of existing PDH devices is still small. As the CP price rises unexpectedly and compresses PDH profits, the market's expectation of PDH device maintenance has increased, and the market is waiting for the fulfillment of the expected increase in maintenance in the first quarter [2]. IV. Propylene Import and Export - In November, the propylene import volume was 142,825 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 29.40%, and the export volume was 2,740 tons, a year - on - year increase of 920.97% [3]. - The increase in the propylene import volume in November compared to the previous month and the decrease compared to the same period last year were mainly due to the end of maintenance of some Korean devices in November, which increased the available supply and led to a slight month - on - month increase in the import volume [3]. V. Propylene Downstream Demand - In terms of downstream new production, a 300,000 - ton/year PO device of Lianhong was newly put into production in December. There will be less downstream production in the first quarter of 2026, and the new downstream production capacity will mainly be realized in the third and fourth quarters. The demand support from the new downstream production capacity of propylene is limited in the short term [3]. - In terms of downstream existing operations, the planned maintenance of downstream devices is limited, mainly for rigid - demand procurement. The spread between PP powder and propylene has rebounded, leading some PP powder units that purchase propylene externally to resume production, and the demand for propylene on the PP side is expected to increase. The load of the octanol device has been slightly increased due to the increased operation of the Jianlan device. The profits of PO, acrylic acid, and butanol are acceptable, and their operations are expected to rise steadily. However, the overall increase in demand - side support may be limited [3][4]. - In December, the monthly production of PP pellets was 355,630 tons, a year - on - year increase of 15.46%; the monthly production of PP powder was 30,780 tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.70%; the monthly production of propylene oxide was 59,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 21.90%; the monthly production of acrylic acid was 34,280 tons, a year - on - year increase of 29.75%; the monthly production of acrylonitrile was 404,166 tons, a year - on - year increase of 38.43%; the monthly production of octanol was 27,650 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.85%; the monthly production of n - butanol was 22,200 tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.95%; the monthly production of phenol was 48,710 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.77% [2]. - The weekly operating rate of PP powder was 38% (+0.69%); the weekly operating rate of propylene oxide was 74% (-2%); the weekly operating rate of acrylic acid was 79.85% (+0.43%); the weekly operating rate of acrylonitrile was 78.33% (-1.95%); the weekly operating rate of octanol was 82% (-3%); the weekly operating rate of n - butanol was 79.87% (+2.09%); the weekly operating rate of phenol - acetone was 81% (+3%) [2]. VI. Propylene Inventory - The in - plant inventory of propylene was 46,010 tons (-550), the in - plant inventory of PP powder was 30,050 tons (-7,116), and the in - plant inventory of acrylonitrile was 61,000 tons (-500). Currently, the in - plant inventory of propylene is still higher than the same period in previous years, and there is still pressure to reduce inventory before the increase in supply - side maintenance is realized. The pressure to reduce inventory of downstream PP is also relatively large, with the inventory of PP traders at a high level in the same period and the inventory of PP powder also relatively high in the same period [3].

Core Viewpoint - Shandong Province is set to become the first northern province and the third overall in China to surpass a GDP of 10 trillion yuan, marking a significant milestone in its economic development [5][6][12]. Economic Milestone - On January 1, 2025, Shandong's GDP is expected to exceed 10 trillion yuan, officially announced by the provincial governor [5]. - Shandong's GDP has increased approximately 13 times since 2000, when it was 834.85 billion yuan, reaching 9.86 trillion yuan by the end of 2024 [9][30]. Comparison with Other Provinces - Shandong joins Guangdong and Jiangsu as the only provinces with a GDP over 10 trillion yuan, with Guangdong being the first in 2018 and Jiangsu in 2020 [7][8]. - In terms of global ranking, Shandong would rank 16th, below Spain and above Indonesia [8]. Economic Growth Rate - Shandong's GDP has been increasing by about 450 billion yuan annually over the past two years, indicating steady growth [17]. - The province's GDP growth has been relatively slower compared to southern provinces, which have outpaced Shandong in recent years [14][36]. Historical Data Adjustments - Shandong's GDP figures have undergone significant revisions, particularly after the 2018 economic census, which adjusted the 2018 GDP down by nearly 1 trillion yuan, reflecting a 12.8% decrease [22][19]. - The adjustments were due to the removal of non-compliant industrial enterprises and corrections in statistical data [23][24]. Industrial Structure - Shandong's industrial sector is comprehensive, with a strong presence in heavy industries, but it is criticized for being outdated and lacking in emerging industries [36][40]. - The province's heavy industry accounts for 77.3% of its industrial revenue, with the chemical manufacturing sector leading at over 1.35 trillion yuan [40]. Population Trends - Shandong is experiencing a decline in its permanent population, with a net outflow of 260,000 people projected for 2024, the second highest in the country [56][45]. - The province's birth rate has been declining, with the number of births in 2023 being only one-third of the 2016 figures [51][54]. Need for Urban Development - Shandong lacks a "super city" that can attract and retain population, unlike provinces such as Guangdong and Jiangsu, which have major cities like Shenzhen and Nanjing [60][68]. - The province's development strategy emphasizes enhancing the roles of both Jinan and Qingdao, aiming to create a synergistic effect between the two cities [70].

Group 1 - The company, Jianghan New Materials (603281.SH), announced that as of the end of December 2025, it has repurchased a total of 8.0346 million shares, accounting for 2.15% of the total share capital [1] - The highest purchase price for the repurchased shares was 27.00 yuan per share, while the lowest was 23.22 yuan per share [1] - The total amount spent on the share repurchase was 200 million yuan, excluding transaction fees [1]

Core Viewpoint - The latest methanol price from Inner Mongolia Jiutai (Tuo County) is reported at 1870 RMB per ton [1] Group 1 - The current methanol price reflects market conditions as of January 4 [1]

Market Overview - As of December 29, 2025, the port inventory of styrene in Jiangsu is 138,800 tons, a decrease of 500 tons compared to the previous period [1] - The spot market for styrene has continued to rise, with prices ranging from 6,680 to 6,900 CNY/ton; as of December 31, the price in Jiangsu reached 6,880 CNY/ton, an increase of 4.96% from the average price of 6,555 CNY/ton the previous Thursday [1] Production and Supply Dynamics - Last week, the restart of a 350,000-ton facility by Baolai and the shutdown of a 450,000-ton facility by Tianjin Bohua due to faults have led to an increase in styrene production and capacity utilization rates compared to the previous period [1] - The recent unexpected maintenance of facilities is expected to maintain a tight balance between supply and demand for domestic styrene in the short term, with visible inventory likely to continue decreasing [4] Institutional Insights - According to Zijin Tianfeng Futures, the styrene market has risen due to unexpected maintenance and export news, with low valuation and marginal positive factors gaining influence; however, the surplus of upstream pure benzene remains a major negative factor [3] - RD Futures notes that the geopolitical situation regarding the U.S. and Venezuela, as well as Russia and Ukraine, has not worsened recently, indicating limited upward pressure on oil prices; the supply-demand situation for pure benzene remains loose, providing limited support [4]

Group 1 - The State Intellectual Property Office of China has granted a patent to China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation and Sinopec (Beijing) Chemical Research Institute for a method and system for preparing halogenated butyl rubber base glue liquid and its applications, with the patent announcement number CN117467054B and application date in July 2022 [1] - China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation, established in 2000 and located in Beijing, primarily engages in oil and gas extraction, with a registered capital of 12,173,968.9893 million RMB. The company has invested in 267 enterprises, participated in 5,000 bidding projects, holds 45 trademark records, 5,000 patent records, and possesses 41 administrative licenses [1] - Sinopec (Beijing) Chemical Research Institute, founded in 2021 and also based in Beijing, focuses on the manufacturing of chemical raw materials and products, with a registered capital of 10,000 million RMB. The institute has invested in 4 enterprises, participated in 2,702 bidding projects, holds 16 trademark records, 1,987 patent records, and has 937 administrative licenses [1]

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation (Sinopec) has obtained a patent for a VOCs waste gas treatment system, method, and application, with the patent announcement number CN118681400B and an application date of March 2023 [1] Group 2 - China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation was established in 2000 and is primarily engaged in oil and gas extraction, with a registered capital of approximately 12.17 billion RMB [1] - The company has invested in 267 enterprises and participated in 5,000 bidding projects, holding 45 trademark records and 5,000 patent records, along with 41 administrative licenses [1] Group 3 - Sinopec (Beijing) Chemical Research Institute Co., Ltd. was established in 2021 and focuses on the manufacturing of chemical raw materials and products, with a registered capital of 100 million RMB [1] - The institute has invested in 4 enterprises, participated in 2,702 bidding projects, holds 16 trademark records and 1,987 patent records, and possesses 937 administrative licenses [1]

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that Wanhua Chemical (Ningbo) Co., Ltd. has obtained a patent for a new automotive bumper material with high paint adhesion, indicating innovation in the chemical manufacturing sector [1] - The patent, titled "A High Paint Adhesion Automotive Thin-Walled Bumper Material, Preparation Method and Its Application," was granted with the announcement number CN116855014B and was applied for on July 2023 [1] - Wanhua Chemical (Ningbo) Co., Ltd. was established in 2006 and is located in Ningbo City, primarily engaged in the manufacturing of chemical raw materials and products [1] Group 2 - The company has a registered capital of 93.6 million RMB [1] - According to data from Tianyancha, Wanhua Chemical has invested in 8 enterprises and participated in 742 bidding projects, showcasing its active role in the industry [1] - The company holds a total of 1,059 patents and has obtained 128 administrative licenses, reflecting its strong focus on innovation and compliance [1]

Group 1 - The State Intellectual Property Office of China has granted a patent for a method of removing chloride ions from solutions to China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation, Changsha Huashijie Environmental Technology Development Co., Ltd., and Sinopec Baling Petrochemical Co., Ltd. The patent announcement number is CN118307083B, with an application date of January 2023 [1][2] Group 2 - China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation, established in 2000 and located in Beijing, primarily engages in oil and gas extraction. The company has a registered capital of 12,173,968.9893 thousand RMB and has invested in 267 enterprises, participated in 5,000 bidding projects, holds 45 trademark registrations, and has 5,000 patents [1] - Changsha Huashijie Environmental Technology Development Co., Ltd., also established in 2000 and located in Changsha, focuses on professional technical services. The company has a registered capital of 10,652.1277 thousand RMB, invested in 8 enterprises, participated in 1,124 bidding projects, holds 17 trademark registrations, and has 191 patents [1] - Sinopec Baling Petrochemical Co., Ltd., founded in 2020 and located in Yueyang, specializes in the manufacturing of chemical raw materials and products. The company has a registered capital of 733,279.44 thousand RMB, invested in 5 enterprises, participated in 5,000 bidding projects, holds 300 patents, and has 1,932 administrative licenses [2]