Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent popularity of "奶皮子" (milk skin) as a trendy food item, particularly in the form of sugar-coated hawthorn, while highlighting the challenges and limitations for its long-term market demand due to high costs, seasonal fluctuations, and limited innovation potential [4][5][10]. Summary by Sections Popularity and Market Dynamics - "奶皮子" has gained significant attention on social media, with over 600 million views on Douyin and 120 million on Xiaohongshu for related topics [4]. - The price of "奶皮子" has surged from 10 yuan to 42 yuan within a week due to increased demand, but production capacity is already at its limit, making it difficult for manufacturers to meet the demand [4][5]. - Manufacturers are cautious about expanding production capacity due to past experiences with short-lived trends in the food industry [4][5]. Production and Quality Issues - "奶皮子" is a traditional dairy product from Inner Mongolia, but there is a lack of standardization in its production, leading to significant variations in quality and texture across different brands [5][6]. - The production process is labor-intensive and requires a large amount of fresh milk, making it costly and subject to seasonal price fluctuations [7][8]. Cost and Pricing Challenges - The cost of "奶皮子" is high, with estimates indicating that it takes about 3 to 3.5 kilograms of fresh milk to produce 1 kilogram of "奶皮子" [7]. - Seasonal variations in fresh milk prices can lead to increased costs for manufacturers, impacting pricing strategies for products that use "奶皮子" as an ingredient [7][8]. Innovation and Market Longevity - Current innovations involving "奶皮子" primarily focus on incorporating it into existing products rather than creating new forms, which is seen as a low-barrier "combinatorial innovation" [8][9]. - The flavor and texture of "奶皮子" are relatively fixed, limiting the potential for significant product innovation compared to more versatile ingredients like coconut [9][10]. - The high fat content of "奶皮子" products conflicts with current health trends favoring lower sugar and fat options, which may hinder long-term consumer interest [10].

中金公司研报指出，展望下一个五年，伊利股份在液奶需求增长常态化背景下提出聚力成长战略，成长 重新成为公司战略核心，旨在录得每年高于GDP及行业增速的收入增长。分拆看，基石品类如成人营 养、液奶、奶粉继续增长，扩大领先优势，预计液奶26 年有望率先于行业实现增长，奶粉目标为金领 冠单品行业份额第一，整体集团份额突破25%；低温品类提升盈利能力。未来5 年公司收入在追求高于 GDP及行业增长的同时，亦希望在9%的利润率基础上实现利润率提的持续提升，主要通过业务结构优 化聚焦高价值赛道、供应链效率控制、资源精准匹配及费效比提升等方式。同时我们预计未来几年原奶 价格有望在今年低位上实现企稳或小幅提升，上游供需趋于平衡利于公司提升白奶市场份额，改善报表 盈利质量。明年预计公司在当前较低基数下有望稳中向好，在股息率提升背景下，我们测算26 年股息 率4.7%，深度布局价值凸显。维持目标价32元，对应18/17倍25/26年PE和8%上行空间，维持"跑赢行 业"评级。 ...

Core Insights - Wudao Milk successfully differentiated itself in the high-end yogurt market by targeting the domestic Greek yogurt segment, capitalizing on the market's homogenization issues and finding new category opportunities [2] Company Summary - In recent years, Wudao Milk's popularity has declined due to a slowdown in financing and the fading of category benefits [2] - The company faces increased competition in the high-protein yogurt segment as more brands focus on high-protein and sugar-free demands, leading to product upgrades and innovations [2] - Consumer preferences are shifting, with new trends emerging such as dry yogurt and milk skin yogurt, indicating that consumers are no longer focused solely on one yogurt category [2] Industry Summary - The high-end yogurt market is experiencing intensified competition, with Wudao Milk's previous "internet celebrity" strategy losing its original advantages [2] - The company must find new differentiation points and re-establish brand advantages to navigate the new competitive landscape [2]

Investment Highlights - The report indicates a clear turning point for the food and beverage industry following accelerated clearance, with expectations for leading sectors to initiate recovery [2][7] - The overall revenue for the food and beverage sector showed a slight increase of 0.2% year-on-year, while net profit decreased by 4.6% in the first three quarters of 2025 [18][20] - In Q3 2025, the sector experienced a significant decline, with revenues and net profits dropping by 4.9% and 14.6% respectively [18][20] Sector Review 1. Overall Review - The food and beverage sector faced continuous pressure and adjustments, with traditional consumption accelerating clearance while new consumption trends continued to grow [18][20] - The white liquor segment saw a revenue decline of 18.4% and a net profit decline of 22.2% in Q3 2025, indicating significant pressure on the sector [20][22] - In contrast, sectors like snacks and beverages maintained double-digit growth due to product and channel innovations [20][21] 2. White Liquor - The white liquor industry is undergoing accelerated clearance, with varying rhythms among companies. The demand has weakened, leading to noticeable declines in revenue and net profit for most companies [22][25] - High-end liquor maintained some growth, with Moutai achieving a revenue increase of 0.3% in Q3 2025, while other brands like Wuliangye saw declines exceeding 50% [23][25] - The report emphasizes the importance of supply-demand balance and pricing as key indicators for the industry's recovery [22][23] 3. Low-Alcohol Beverages and Drinks - The beer segment showed stable performance with a revenue increase of 2.0% and a net profit increase of 11.8% in the first three quarters of 2025 [21][22] - The report highlights the potential for recovery in demand for low-alcohol beverages and drinks, driven by health trends and product innovation [22][23] 4. Consumer Goods - The dairy sector is gradually stabilizing, with upstream supply clearing and downstream processing demand increasing, leading to a potential balance in the raw milk cycle [31][33] - The snack sector, particularly the konjac and oat categories, is expected to maintain high growth rates, supported by the expansion of new retail channels [31][36] - The report notes that the overall demand for dining remains weak, but specific segments like Western-style condiments and frozen baking show structural opportunities [31][33] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies that are early in their clearance processes and have strong brand momentum, such as Gujing Gongjiu and Luzhou Laojiao [11][12] - For low-alcohol beverages, attention is drawn to leading companies like Kweichow Moutai and Tsingtao Brewery, which are expected to benefit from demand recovery [11][12] - In the consumer goods sector, companies with strong performance and cost advantages, such as Yili and Modern Dairy, are recommended for investment [11][12]

Core Viewpoint - Yili Group has been awarded the China Quality Award Nomination for three consecutive sessions, reflecting the industry's recognition of its quality management and the historical leap of China's dairy industry from "catching up" to "surpassing" [1][8]. Group 1: Quality Management Models - Yili Group has developed the "Self-Prevention Three-Line Zero Defect" quality management model, which emphasizes self-prevention and safety assurance through a structured approach involving goal trees, responsibility trees, and tool trees [3][5]. - The model's execution core includes three lines: design line, assurance line, and operation line, ensuring quality through design, safety standards, and risk management [4][5]. Group 2: Technological Advancements - The company utilizes advanced technology in its operations, such as intelligent milking robots and automated production systems, to enhance efficiency and ensure product quality [7][8]. - Yili Group has established a robust food safety database and digital monitoring system, enabling real-time risk alerts and product traceability from source to consumer [7][8]. Group 3: Quality Achievements - The average bacterial count in Yili's raw milk has been significantly lower than the EU standard, achieving less than 10,000 CFU/mL, marking a substantial improvement in quality management [8]. - The implementation of the new quality management model has led to a reduction in product development cycles by an average of three months and a saving of 17,024 research and development hours annually [6].

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the transformation of supply chains from backend support to a key competitive advantage in the context of digital transformation and global competition [1] - It highlights the structural challenges faced by domestic companies, such as low efficiency, high costs, and slow response times, which hinder their ability to adapt to rapidly changing market demands [1] Group 1: Supply Chain Management Challenges - Six core pain points restrict the sustainable development of supply chains: strategic disconnection, fragmented processes, data silos, slow response times, uncontrolled costs, and vulnerability to risks [2] - Strategic disconnection occurs when supply chain planning does not align with corporate strategy, leading to a gap between strategy and operations [2] - Fragmented processes result in delays in information transfer and a disconnect between production plans and market demands, causing both inventory surplus and shortages [2] - Data silos hinder precise forecasting and real-time management due to the lack of a unified platform [2] - Slow response times to personalized demands and rapid product iterations can lead to missed market opportunities [2] - Uncontrolled costs arise from inadequate cost management mechanisms across procurement, warehousing, and logistics, resulting in high total supply chain costs [2] - Vulnerability to risks is exacerbated by the absence of a business continuity management system, making companies susceptible to disruptions [2] Group 2: Integrated Supply Chain (ISC) Solution - The ISC solution by Best Management Consulting focuses on a framework that integrates strategy, processes, organization, IT, and data to enhance supply chain competitiveness [3] - It aims to create an end-to-end, replicable, and upgradeable supply chain system by connecting all processes from order to reverse logistics [3] Group 3: Strategic Planning Layer - The solution involves developing a comprehensive supply chain strategy aligned with long-term corporate goals [4] - It includes designing specialized strategies for procurement, logistics, and inventory management [5] - Risk and resilience assessments are conducted to establish a business continuity management system [6] - Collaboration with R&D and marketing systems is emphasized for effective integration [7] Group 4: Process Design Layer - The solution optimizes the order management system to cover the entire order lifecycle [8] - It establishes a sales and operations planning (S&OP) system to enhance monthly production and sales coordination [9] - The manufacturing process is re-engineered to shift from push to pull production, increasing flexibility [10] - Logistics systems are planned to optimize transportation routes and implement multi-modal transport [11] - Reverse logistics processes are standardized for efficient returns and remanufacturing [12] Group 5: Business Operations Layer - The solution upgrades forecasting and planning modules using AI-driven models to improve accuracy [13] - It enhances procurement systems through supplier classification and digital platforms for transparency [14] - Manufacturing flexibility is improved with a one-flow production layout [15] - Smart warehousing systems are deployed to optimize inventory management [16] - Logistics costs and efficiency are improved through strategic planning [17] Group 6: Support and Sustainability Layer - The solution ensures alignment of supply chain organization and human resources with clear responsibilities [18] - A performance and incentive system is designed to link KPIs with employee performance [19] - IT system integration is prioritized for real-time data sharing and training [20] - Data governance mechanisms are established to ensure efficient data management [21] Group 7: Case Studies - The case of Mindray Medical highlights the restructuring of its forecasting system and S&OP mechanism, leading to improved operational efficiency and inventory management [22][23][24][25] - The case of Feihe Dairy illustrates the establishment of a supply chain system that supports rapid expansion and aligns with its fresh strategy, resulting in enhanced planning efficiency and inventory turnover [26][27][28][29][30][31][32][33][34][35][36] Conclusion - Supply chain optimization is a long-term strategic practice rather than a simple fix, and choosing the right partners is crucial for overcoming bottlenecks and achieving breakthroughs [37] - Best Management Consulting leverages over 20 years of industry experience to provide integrated supply chain solutions that enhance efficiency, cost advantages, and resilience [38]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for Yili Co., Ltd. (600887) with a target price of 36 CNY [2][6]. Core Insights - Yili has outlined a five-year growth plan focusing on stabilizing the entire industry chain and enhancing profitability amidst weak demand and intensified competition. The company aims for a net profit margin of 9% for the year [6]. - The company expects revenue growth to outpace GDP growth over the next five years, with a focus on liquid milk and functional nutrition as key growth drivers [6]. - Yili plans to increase its market share in various product categories, including infant formula and low-temperature dairy products, while also accelerating international expansion [6]. - A commitment to high dividend payouts has been established, with plans for cash dividends to account for at least 75% of net profit from 2025 to 2027 [6]. Financial Summary - Projected total revenue (in million CNY) for 2024A is 115,780, with a year-on-year growth rate of -8.2%. By 2027E, revenue is expected to reach 125,537 million CNY, with a growth rate of 3.5% [2][6]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to be 8,453 million CNY in 2024A, with a significant increase to 13,302 million CNY by 2027E, reflecting a growth rate of 8.2% [2][6]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are expected to rise from 1.34 CNY in 2024A to 2.10 CNY in 2027E, indicating a positive trend in profitability [2][6]. Market Position and Strategy - Yili aims to lead the liquid milk market by 2026, with a focus on penetrating lower-tier markets and enhancing presence in high-tier cities [6]. - The company is shifting its marketing strategy from traditional methods to more engaging and ROI-focused approaches, which is expected to support ongoing profitability improvements [6]. - Yili's international business is projected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 20%, with a focus on high-value products from New Zealand and expanding its presence in Southeast Asia [6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for Yili Co., Ltd. (伊利股份) [3][5] Core Views - Yili Co., Ltd. emphasizes a strategy focused on quality leadership, horizontal expansion, and vertical upgrades, aiming for balanced growth and profitability while enhancing shareholder returns [2][4] - Despite short-term demand pressures, the company has stabilized its liquid milk market share, with other business segments performing well and continuous improvement in net profit margins [5] - The company plans to focus on the recovery of liquid milk, performance improvement under supply-demand balance, and new growth drivers from deep processing, health products, and overseas markets [5] Summary by Sections Company Overview - Yili Co., Ltd. held an investor day on November 18, 2025, where management discussed the five-year development plan, highlighting the potential for increased per capita consumption of dairy products in China [2] Financial Performance - The company expects earnings per share (EPS) of 1.76 CNY and 1.94 CNY for 2025 and 2026, respectively, with a valuation of 16.7X for 2025 [5] - The projected total revenue for 2025 is 116.53 billion CNY, with a slight increase of 0.6% year-on-year [6][14] Business Segments - Liquid Milk: The company is shifting from extensive growth to high-quality growth through product innovation and brand enhancement, aiming for positive growth ahead of the industry by 2026 [4][5] - Infant Formula: The "Golden Crown" brand has maintained over 15% compound growth in the past five years, with a target to achieve over 25% market share [4] - Deep Processing: The deep processing sector is rapidly developing, with significant market potential driven by consumption upgrades [4] International Expansion - Yili Co., Ltd. is committed to international growth, with targets for double-digit compound growth in markets like Indonesia and Thailand, and a 20% growth target in the Australian market [4] Shareholder Returns - The company has announced a dividend payout ratio of no less than 75% for the years 2025-2027, with a minimum cash dividend of 1.22 CNY per share for 2024 [4][5]

Core Viewpoint - The consumer goods sector is expected to gradually bottom out in demand by 2026, with a narrowing of price declines, although the potential for upward recovery may be limited due to intense competition and weakening raw material cost advantages [1][2]. Group 1: Consumer Goods Industry Overview - The consumer goods sector experienced weak demand and intense competition in the first three quarters of 2025, leading to a decline in both volume and price [2]. - The demand for consumer goods is anticipated to stabilize in 2026, supported by a healthy inventory level and the upcoming consumption peak due to the Spring Festival preparations [2]. - Despite the expected stabilization in demand, the consumer goods sector may still face slight pressure on terminal prices due to ongoing weak demand and a trend towards cost-effective consumption [2]. Group 2: Dairy Products - The liquid milk sector faced a decline in demand due to weakened consumer purchasing power, but the rate of decline has slowed compared to 2024 [3]. - Improvements in raw milk supply and demand are expected, with milk prices projected to stop declining and potentially recover in the second half of 2026 [3]. - The liquid milk industry is anticipated to stabilize at its fundamental bottom in 2026, with reduced promotional pricing and a narrowing of price declines [3]. Group 3: Snacks - The snack industry is expected to continue benefiting from channel growth in 2025, particularly in bulk snack channels and membership supermarkets, despite a slowdown in e-commerce and traditional channels [4]. - The profitability of the snack sector is under pressure due to rising raw material costs and increased competition [4]. - In 2026, the focus will be on growth stocks within the snack sector, particularly those benefiting from the ongoing trends in specific product categories [4]. Group 4: Food Supply Chain - The food supply chain sector is closely tied to the performance of the downstream restaurant industry, which is currently experiencing weak overall conditions [5]. - Structural highlights include resilient leading companies gaining market share and the acceleration of mergers and acquisitions to expand categories and channels [5]. - The sector is expected to show signs of marginal improvement in 2026, with potential recovery in demand and easing competitive pressures [5]. Group 5: Beverage Industry - The beverage sector experienced fluctuations in demand in 2025, with a negative growth trend emerging in the third quarter due to price wars on delivery platforms [6]. - The health and functional beverage categories performed better than others, and despite intense competition, many companies managed to improve net profit margins [6]. - A recovery in beverage demand is anticipated in 2026, with expected growth in the mid to high single digits, contingent on market demand and raw material prices [6][7].

Core Insights - Miaokelando has established itself as a leading player in the cheese industry in China, aiming to make cheese a staple in every household and targeting a vision of becoming a "leading and respected cheese enterprise" globally during the 14th Five-Year Plan [2][8] - The company has achieved significant market share, with over 38% in the packaged cheese segment and a strong focus on expanding its product offerings to cater to a wider age demographic [3][4] Company Performance - In the first three quarters of 2025, Miaokelando reported total revenue of 3.957 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.09%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 176 million yuan, up 106.88% [3] - The company has successfully transitioned from a focus on children's cheese products to a broader "national cheese" strategy, introducing various products for different consumer segments [4] Strategic Initiatives - The "Store Efficiency Doubling" strategy has been identified as a key initiative for the next three years, focusing on enhancing profitability through high-margin products and improving operational efficiency [5][6] - Miaokelando is committed to increasing the localization of its raw materials, with ongoing projects aimed at reducing reliance on foreign ingredients and enhancing cost control [7] Market Position and Future Plans - The cheese market in China is still in its early growth stage, with significant potential for expansion, as current deep-processed dairy products account for only 7.3% of the market [7] - The company plans to implement a dual strategy of "toB + toC" and pursue international expansion through acquisitions and product innovation, aiming to create several blockbuster products [8]