港股研究丨公司深度丨农夫山泉（9633.HK） [Table_Title] 农夫山泉深度报告：山泉为上，农夫饮茶 %% %% %% %% %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 丨证券研究报告丨 报告要点 农夫山泉作为中国软饮料行业领军企业，其在产品、品牌、营销、渠道上均颇有建树。农夫山 泉的本质是推动饮料行业价格链"通胀"，通过推出高品质、高价格产品，为上游供应链和经销 商创造丰厚利润，实现上下游利益绑定。本文从公司产业布局、营销能力、渠道模式三大维度 进行拆解，解读农夫山泉的常青之道。同时，我们认为公司已逐步走出舆论影响且有望顺势提 高市占率，增强公司影响力。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 董思远 冯萱 SAC：S0490517070016 SAC：S0490524060001 SFC：BQK487 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 2 / 30 research.95579.com 2 农夫山泉（9633.HK） cjzqdt11111 [Table_Title2] 农夫山泉深度报告：山泉为上，农夫饮茶 [Table_Summary2] 农夫山泉：始于微末，发于华枝 ...

Industry Overview - The beverage market in 2024 shows significant growth with a 7.8% increase in overall sales, driven by health-oriented drinks like sugar-free tea and functional beverages, which grew by 16.6% and 12.1% respectively, with sugar-free tea experiencing a remarkable 60% growth [2] - The sugar-free tea market is becoming increasingly concentrated, with Nongfu Spring holding over 70% market share, while electrolyte drinks are emerging as a new growth point, led by brands like Yuanqi Forest [2] - The trend towards health and taste is expected to drive competition in the beverage market, focusing on efficiency and differentiation [2] Tropical Fruit Trends - Guava has emerged as a popular ingredient in the beverage industry, with brands like Heytea and Shuyi Shao Xian Cao launching new guava products, reflecting its high aesthetic appeal and health benefits [3][4] - The rise of guava is attributed to its vibrant color, high vitamin C content, and low calories, making it versatile for innovation [3] Functional Foods and Health Trends - The functional food industry, particularly traditional Chinese medicine-based products, is evolving from simple cultivation to a complete industrial chain, benefiting from health consumption upgrades and policy support [5] - The market for traditional Chinese medicinal foods is expected to grow significantly, with a focus on personalized nutrition and health benefits [5] Local Brand Preference - Young Chinese consumers are increasingly favoring local brands over foreign ones, with domestic ice cream brands gaining market share at the expense of international brands like Häagen-Dazs [6] - Local brands are leveraging innovation and flexible marketing strategies to attract the younger generation, reflecting a deeper transformation in the Chinese consumer market [6] Condiment Industry Dynamics - The condiment industry is experiencing a "Matthew Effect," where leading brands like Haitian and Hengshun are becoming stronger, while new product trends focus on health and premiumization [7] - Despite challenges such as raw material price fluctuations, leading brands are maintaining stable growth and improving market share [7] Coconut Water Market - Coconut water is gaining traction as a natural health drink, with market growth expected to reach 7.8 billion yuan by 2024, driven by consumer demand for functional beverages [8] - The market is projected to reach 20 billion yuan by 2029, with supply chain and channel integration being key competitive factors [8] Niche Beverage Segments - The beverage industry is diversifying into niche segments, with brands like Huiyuan Juice launching low-priced birch juice products [9] - The trend towards sugar reduction and functional nutrition is driving the growth of traditional Chinese health water brands, with expectations of market size exceeding 10 billion yuan by 2028 [9] Health-Conscious Beverage Trends - The rise of traditional Chinese health water is attributed to the growing health consciousness among consumers, with market size expected to grow from 0.1 billion yuan in 2018 to 4.5 billion yuan in 2023 [10] - Brands are innovating with unique ingredient combinations to differentiate their products in a crowded market [10] Electrolyte Water Growth - Electrolyte water is becoming a mainstream choice, particularly among health-conscious consumers, with the market expected to reach 23.5 billion yuan by 2025 [13] - The shift from "pleasure consumption" to "functional consumption" is evident, with brands like Yuanqi Forest leading the charge [18] Market Dynamics and Innovations - The beverage market is witnessing a shift towards larger packaging sizes, with 1.5L bottles gaining popularity due to perceived value and cost efficiency [23] - Companies are exploring cross-industry collaborations, such as the partnership between Dairy Farm and Mengniu to launch high-end dairy products [25] Strategic Acquisitions - Ferrero's acquisition of WK Kellogg for $3.1 billion is aimed at expanding its breakfast cereal market presence, complementing its existing chocolate business [20] - This strategic move reflects a broader trend of food companies diversifying their product offerings to capture more market share [20]

Core Viewpoint - Recent management changes at Weilong Delicious, including the resignation of CFO Peng Hongzhi and the appointment of Yu Feng, reflect potential challenges the company faces in product and market areas [2][3][4] Management Changes - CFO Peng Hongzhi will resign on August 31, with Executive Director Yu Feng taking over from September 1 [3] - This marks the second management change within six months, following the appointment of a new CEO in April [3] - The current executive directors are all members of the Liu family, indicating a strong family control over the company [3] Industry Challenges - The snack food industry is becoming increasingly competitive, prompting the Liu family to regain control of key positions to ensure consistent strategic direction [4] - The traditional "spicy strips" product line is losing popularity among mainstream consumers due to health concerns, impacting sales [5][7] - Sales of spicy strips have declined from 193,600 tons in 2021 to 124,400 tons in 2023 [5] Financial Performance - In 2024, Weilong Delicious reported revenue of 6.266 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 28.63%, and a net profit of 1.069 billion yuan, up 21.37% [6] - Revenue from vegetable products reached 3.371 billion yuan, growing 59.1% and surpassing the revenue from spicy strips [6] Product Development - The company is shifting towards healthier product offerings, increasing the sales of vegetable products like konjac snacks [6][7] - However, the konjac products have faced quality control issues, leading to consumer complaints [7] - The market for konjac snacks is becoming crowded, with competitors like Salted Fish and Three Squirrels entering the space [7]

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the importance of boosting domestic demand as a long-term strategy for economic growth, especially in light of reduced export contributions due to trade tensions [2][4] - It highlights the ongoing consumer policy initiatives aimed at stimulating spending and increasing household income, which are expected to positively impact consumption ratios in the coming years [4][6] - The article draws parallels between the current economic situation in China and Japan's economic history, particularly the similarities in aging populations and real estate market challenges [8][12] Group 1: Domestic Demand and Consumption - Domestic demand is becoming the main driver of economic growth as export contributions decline, with household consumption currently accounting for 38-40% of GDP, significantly lower than in developed countries [2][4] - Recent consumer policies, including subsidies and consumption vouchers, are expected to enhance household income and stimulate spending, with a projected increase in consumer spending in 2025 [4][6] - The first quarter of 2025 showed a 4.6% year-on-year increase in retail sales, indicating a stable upward trend in consumption [4] Group 2: Economic Comparisons with Japan - The article compares China's current economic conditions to Japan's in the late 1990s, noting similar GDP per capita levels and aging demographics [8][12] - Both countries have experienced real estate market downturns, with China implementing policies to stabilize housing prices and Japan facing a prolonged economic slump after its real estate bubble burst [8][12] - The analysis suggests that understanding Japan's economic history could provide valuable insights for China's future economic strategies [8][12] Group 3: Consumer Behavior Trends - There is a noticeable shift in consumer preferences towards value-oriented and health-conscious products, with brands like Sam's Club and Dazhong increasingly appealing to consumers seeking quality at competitive prices [34][39] - The rise of discount retailers and the focus on high-cost performance products reflect a broader trend of rational consumption among consumers, particularly in the context of economic uncertainty [19][25] - The article highlights the growing importance of local brands and products that cater to domestic tastes, as consumers show a preference for homegrown options over foreign imports [31][20]

Core Insights - The article highlights the growing consumer demand for healthy and high-quality beverages, leading to the launch of 100% yellow tomato juice by the premium fruit tomato brand, Yike Da™ [1][5]. Company Overview - Yike Da™ was established in 2022 by Kaisheng Haofeng Agricultural Group Co., Ltd., focusing on providing high-standard and high-quality products to consumers [3][8]. - The brand has achieved recognition as the "national sales leader" for cherry tomatoes and 100% NFC tomato juice, certified by authoritative institutions [3]. Product Launch - The newly launched 100% NFC yellow tomato juice maintains the brand's "0 additives" principle, containing only yellow tomatoes without any added water [5]. - The product is designed to meet health-conscious consumer needs, featuring 0 added sugar, 0 fat, 0 sodium, 0 artificial flavors, and 0 preservatives, with a calorie count of approximately 75 Kcal per bottle [5][6]. Product Features - The yellow cherry tomatoes used in the juice are sourced from the company's own smart glass greenhouse, ensuring safety with 0 GMOs, 0 artificial hormones, and 0 heavy metals [6]. - Consumer feedback from a tasting event indicated that the juice has a balanced sweet and sour taste, refreshing texture, and a hint of honey flavor, with potential for significant market impact [6]. Market Strategy - The 100% NFC yellow tomato juice is now available on major e-commerce platforms such as Tmall, JD.com, Douyin, and Xiaohongshu, with plans to expand into supermarkets and other online platforms [8]. - Yike Da™ aims to leverage its proprietary raw material advantages and explore diverse product categories to enhance consumer experiences in the future [8].

Core Insights - The consumption of zongzi (rice dumplings) in Jinan is showing a significant trend towards health-conscious options, with low-sugar and whole grain varieties becoming increasingly popular among consumers [4][9][11] Group 1: Market Trends - Zongzi sales have seen a notable increase, with a reported growth of over 10% compared to the same period last year, particularly in the three days leading up to the Dragon Boat Festival [4] - At Hema Fresh, zongzi sales have surged by 50% year-on-year and 300% week-on-week, indicating a strong demand for both traditional and innovative flavors [6] - The overall production of zongzi is projected to reach 2 million units this year, with a significant portion of sales coming from health-oriented products [11] Group 2: Consumer Preferences - Nearly 50% of consumers prioritize low-sugar attributes in zongzi, reflecting a shift towards healthier eating habits [4] - There is a growing preference for high-value products, with consumers becoming more rational in their purchasing decisions, focusing on ingredient quality and cost-effectiveness [8][11] - The younger demographic now accounts for over 40% of zongzi consumers, indicating a shift in market dynamics [11] Group 3: Industry Growth - The zongzi market in China is expected to surpass 10.3 billion yuan in 2024, with an estimated market size of 11 billion yuan this year [11] - As of May 31, there are 5,629 zongzi-related enterprises in China, with 217 new companies established in the past year, primarily concentrated in provinces like Zhejiang, Shandong, Guangdong, Hainan, and Shaanxi [13] - The increasing emphasis on the cultural significance and emotional experience associated with zongzi is driving innovation and competition within the industry [13]

Industry Overview - The market size of seabuckthorn beverage in China reached 650 million yuan in 2023, with Yuhang Group generating 220 million yuan in revenue. The industry is expected to continue growing from 2024 to 2030 due to various factors including technology and environmental barriers [1] - The market for Chinese health water has rapidly grown from 10 million yuan in 2018 to 450 million yuan in 2023, with projections to exceed 10 billion yuan by 2028. The competition is divided among traditional brands, new retail platforms, and time-honored pharmaceutical companies [4][17] - The pre-prepared food market is expected to exceed 1 trillion yuan by 2026, but concerns over food safety, such as illegal additives and hygiene issues, have raised consumer worries [7] Market Trends - The sugar-free tea market is experiencing fatigue, with some channels showing negative growth. The rise of Chinese health water is taking market share from sugar-free tea, leading to adjustments in shelf space [2] - The health-conscious trend among young consumers is driving the popularity of herbal drinks, with products like red bean and coix seed water gaining traction [5] - The Z generation is pushing for healthier drinking options, leading to the rise of sugar-free and low-calorie beers, which have reached a market size of 13.8 billion yuan, with 61% of sales coming from this demographic [10] Company Dynamics - Huiyuan Juice has responded to negative rumors about its business status, emphasizing its recovery and market leadership in 100% juice sales after a successful restructuring [12] - Li Ziyuan is entering the functional beverage market with its "VitaYoung" drink, aiming to capture a share of the 140 billion yuan market, but faces intense competition [14] - Starbucks has launched a new ready-to-drink tea and coffee series, focusing on high-quality ingredients and low-sugar formulations to meet health demands [18] Consumer Insights - The demand for personalized and health-oriented products is increasing, with companies needing to address consumer preferences for transparency and quality in their offerings [6][19] - The trend of "water-based health" is gaining traction among young consumers, with a focus on using traditional Chinese medicinal ingredients in modern beverages [5][9] - The market for children's milk is projected to grow at a compound annual growth rate of 5.6%, with A2 milk emerging as a new opportunity [16]

Core Insights - The beverage industry is experiencing rapid shifts in consumer preferences, with the once-popular "sugar-free tea" category showing signs of fatigue as consumers seek healthier and more personalized options [1][4] - The rise of Chinese herbal water is becoming a significant trend, taking market share from sugar-free tea, particularly as the latter's growth slows down [1][4] Market Trends - Despite overall growth in the sugar-free tea market, certain key channels are experiencing negative growth, indicating a shift in consumer interest [1][2] - In 2023, sugar-free tea sales saw a significant increase, but by 2024, the category's popularity is declining as Chinese herbal water gains traction [1][2] Sales Performance - Data from 2024 shows that while sugar-free tea sales were higher than in 2023 for most months, the first three months of 2025 saw a 5% decrease in sales [2] - The leading brand in the sugar-free tea category, Nongfu Spring, reported a revenue of 16.75 billion RMB in 2024, marking a 32.3% year-on-year increase, although its growth rate has slowed compared to previous years [2][4] Competitive Landscape - The market for sugar-free tea is becoming increasingly consolidated, with the top eight companies holding over 95% market share by mid-2024 [2] - Major players like Nongfu Spring and Yuanqi Forest are innovating with new flavors and technologies to maintain their competitive edge in the sugar-free tea segment [4] Emerging Categories - The Chinese herbal water segment is experiencing explosive growth, with a reported sales increase of over 182% in 2024, and is projected to reach a market size of over 30 billion RMB [4] - The rapid growth of Chinese herbal water reflects a broader trend in the beverage industry towards health-oriented products, driven by consumer demand for innovative and functional beverages [4][5]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the transformation of prunes from a niche fruit to a "super fruit," highlighting the dual advancement of industry and consumer demand for health-oriented, functional, personalized, and emotional products [42]. Group 1: Market Trends and Consumer Behavior - The health and functional beverage trend has revitalized the juice market, with prune juice market size reaching 4.5 billion RMB in 2023, a 15% year-on-year growth, and projected to reach 6 billion RMB by 2025, with a compound annual growth rate of 12% [16]. - Consumers are increasingly prioritizing health in their food and beverage choices, with 73.5% willing to spend more for quality, indicating a shift away from sugary drinks towards healthier options [16]. - The demand for functional beverages is evident, with 91.6% of consumers purchasing NFC juice for its health benefits rather than taste [18]. Group 2: Product Development and Innovation - The "Prune Universe" has expanded to include various products such as prune juice, dried prunes, and yogurt, reflecting a shift in consumer perception towards prunes as a functional ingredient rather than just a snack [2][13]. - The introduction of new products has led to a significant increase in SKU numbers, with prune-related food and beverage SKUs growing by 55.5% and 454% respectively [22]. - Companies like Huiyuan Juice have successfully launched NFC prune juice, which quickly became their best-selling product, demonstrating the potential for prunes in the beverage market [22]. Group 3: Supply Chain and Production - The supply chain for prunes has improved significantly, with investments in modern agricultural practices and cold chain logistics enhancing the quality and availability of prunes [39][40]. - Xinjiang is the largest prune production area in China, with significant investments in processing facilities to support the growing demand for prune products [39][40]. - The establishment of modern production facilities has allowed for better management of the supply chain, addressing previous challenges such as high spoilage rates and lack of standardization [41]. Group 4: Challenges and Market Dynamics - The prune industry faces challenges related to consumer trust, particularly following incidents involving misleading product claims, which have led to a perception of prunes as a laxative [44][45]. - Despite these challenges, the prune market is not artificially inflated, and the scrutiny may lead to healthier long-term growth for the industry [45]. - The article emphasizes that the focus on health benefits over taste is reshaping consumer expectations and market dynamics in the beverage sector [17][42].

Core Insights - The health, functionality, personalization, and emotional aspects are the upgrade directions for the new consumption industry, with prunes successfully tapping into these demands, representing a dual advancement in both industry and consumer trends [1][34]. Industry Trends - The market for prune juice reached 4.5 billion yuan in 2023, showing a 15% year-on-year growth, and is expected to reach 6 billion yuan by 2025, with a compound annual growth rate of 12%, significantly outpacing the overall beverage industry's growth rate of 6% [11]. - The juice market had previously faced a decline, with retail sales dropping from 87.14 billion yuan in 2017 to 75.26 billion yuan in 2021, indicating a shift in consumer preferences towards healthier options [11][12]. - The trend towards health-oriented products has led to a rise in functional beverages, with 91.6% of consumers purchasing NFC juice for its functional benefits rather than taste [13]. Product Development - The "Prune Universe" has rapidly expanded with various products such as prune juice, dried prunes, and yogurt, reflecting a shift in consumer perception from prunes as a mere fruit to a functional ingredient [2][19]. - The introduction of new products has been significant, with a 454% increase in SKU numbers for prune-related beverages, indicating strong market interest and investment [16]. Consumer Behavior - Consumers are increasingly seeking products that prioritize health and functionality over traditional sugary drinks, with 73.5% of respondents in a survey indicating a preference for quality food and beverages [12]. - The narrative around prunes has shifted, with consumers sharing experiences of the product's effectiveness in addressing digestive issues, thus creating a community of potential customers [10][22]. Supply Chain and Production - The supply chain for prunes has improved significantly, with investments in modern agricultural practices and cold chain logistics enhancing the quality and availability of fresh prunes [29][30]. - The Xinjiang region is a major production area for prunes in China, with significant investments in processing facilities to support the growing demand for prune products [30][31]. Market Challenges - Despite the growth, the prune juice market faces challenges, including a recent trust crisis due to quality issues with certain products, highlighting the need for transparency and quality assurance in the industry [35][36].