新能源及有色金属周报 | 2025-10-12 矿端扰动减弱，短期消费支撑价格 市场分析 现货市场 价格方面：碳酸锂期货本周维持震荡运行，主力合约2511本周五收于 72740元/吨，本周跌幅为0.08%，持仓量为 221919吨。SMM电池级碳酸锂均价73,550元/吨；工业级碳酸锂均价71,300元/吨，现货价格基本持平。现货成交稍 有好转，但多数观望为主。截至本周五，所有合约总持仓 68.17万手。截至本周五，碳酸锂当日仓单 42379 手， 仓单数量较多。 供应端：据 SMM 统计，周度产量小幅增加，周度总产量 2.06 万吨，环比增加 119 吨，其中辉石产碳酸锂 13064 吨，环比增加 75吨，云母产碳酸锂2695 吨，环比减少145 吨，盐湖产碳酸锂 2904 吨，环比增加 141 吨，回收产 碳酸锂 1972吨，整体来看，供应端仍保持较高水平。 消费端：据百川数据，磷酸铁锂产量环比降低0.04%，三元材料环比增加0.48%。钴酸锂环比增加0.12%，锰酸锂环 比增长5.64%。下游排产维持增量预期。终端动储双增，下游需求维持高位，但节后下游散单采购需求较弱，多观 望市场走势，仅少数刚需采购， ...

Market Overview - The three major stock indices collectively declined, with a total market turnover of approximately 2.53 trillion yuan, a decrease of over 130 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.37%, while the Shenzhen Component Index fell by 1.26%, and the ChiNext Index dropped by 3.86% over the past two trading days [1] - In September 2025, new A-share accounts reached 2.94 million, a significant year-on-year increase of 61%, with a total of 20.15 million new accounts opened in the first three quarters of 2025, up 50% year-on-year [1] Weekly Stock Performance - Over 2,900 stocks rose this week, with 18 stocks increasing by more than 20%. The largest gain was seen in Guanzhong Ecological, which rose by 36.14% [2] - The sectors with the most stocks gaining over 20% included non-ferrous metals, construction decoration, and machinery equipment, each contributing three stocks to the list [2] Institutional Activity - Institutions were active in the market, with 66 stocks appearing on the weekly leaderboard, net buying 38 stocks and net selling 28 stocks. Ten stocks saw net purchases exceeding 110 million yuan [3] - The stock with the highest net purchase was Ganfeng Lithium, amounting to 578 million yuan, with a weekly increase of 5.01% and a turnover rate of 23.63% [3][4] Notable Announcements - China Power Construction signed a significant contract worth approximately 11.719 billion yuan [6] - Jingu Co., Ltd. entered into a strategic cooperation framework agreement with Ninebot Technology to collaborate on new material research and application in service robots [7] Earnings Forecasts - Several companies reported strong earnings forecasts for the third quarter, including: - Yuyuan New Materials, with a projected net profit increase of 101% to 127% year-on-year - Huace Navigation, expecting a net profit increase of 23.17% to 27.02% year-on-year - Allwinner Technology, anticipating a net profit increase of 213% to 307% year-on-year [8]

Core Viewpoint - Ganfeng Lithium's trading volume reached 8.468 billion yuan, marking the highest level since July 7, 2022, despite a recent stock price decline of 3.37% [1] Trading Performance - The latest trading volume for Ganfeng Lithium was 8.468 billion yuan, which is a slight increase from the previous trading day's volume of 8.466 billion yuan [1] - The stock's turnover rate was reported at 10.60% [1]

1. Market Analysis - On October 9, 2025, the main contract 2511 of lithium carbonate opened at 73,200 yuan/ton and closed at 73,340 yuan/ton, with a 0.27% change in the closing price compared to the previous day's settlement price. The trading volume was 361,093 lots, and the open interest was 229,022 lots, down from 231,964 lots the previous trading day. The current basis was 170 yuan/ton (average price of electric carbon - futures). The number of lithium carbonate warehouse receipts was 42,379 lots, a change of 670 lots from the previous trading day [1]. - According to SMM data, the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was quoted at 72,900 - 74,200 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day, and the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was quoted at 70,700 - 71,900 yuan/ton, also unchanged. The price of 6% lithium concentrate was 830 US dollars/ton, a change of - 5 US dollars/ton from the previous day. After the holiday, the market trading was light, and both upstream and downstream were on the sidelines. New production lines were put into operation at both the spodumene and salt lake ends, and the total output of lithium carbonate in October was expected to have growth potential. In terms of demand, the new energy vehicle market in the power sector was growing rapidly in both commercial and passenger vehicles, and the energy storage market had strong supply and demand. Overall, although the supply increased steadily in October, a stage of tight supply was formed [1]. - According to the latest weekly data, the weekly output increased by 119 tons to 20,635 tons. The output from spodumene production increased slightly, while the output from mica production decreased slightly. The weekly inventory decreased by 2,024 tons to 134,801 tons. The inventory of smelters increased, while the inventory in the intermediate links and downstream decreased [2]. - In September 2025, Chile exported 8,367 tons of lithium sulfate (equivalent to about 4,307 tons of LCE), all to China, with year - on - year and month - on - month increases of 9% and 21% respectively. The average export price was 3,249 US dollars/ton, with year - on - year and month - on - month increases of 561% and 45% respectively. From January to September 2025, Chile exported a total of 62,000 tons of lithium sulfate (equivalent to about 31,900 tons of LCE), a year - on - year increase of 127% (an increase of 34,700 tons) [2]. - In September 2025, Chile exported 15,900 tons of lithium carbonate, with year - on - year and month - on - month decreases of 13% and 6% respectively. The average export price was 8,704 US dollars/ton, with year - on - year and month - on - month increases of 15% and 2% respectively. Among them, the amount exported to China was 11,100 tons (a month - on - month decrease of 1,881 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 14%), the amount exported to Japan was 370 tons, and the amount exported to South Korea was 3,999 tons. From January to September 2025, Chile exported a total of 164,700 tons of lithium carbonate, a year - on - year decrease of 8.5% (a decrease of 15,300 tons). The amount exported to China was 120,900 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 17% (a decrease of 23,900 tons), the amount exported to Japan was 4,801 tons, a year - on - year increase of 36%, and the amount exported to South Korea was 29,900 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 76% [2]. - On October 9, 2025, Cailian Press reported that Zangge Mining (000408.SZ) announced that its wholly - owned subsidiary, Golmud Zangge Potash Fertilizer Co., Ltd., recently received the Certificate of Real Estate Right (Mining Right) and the Mining License issued by the Ministry of Natural Resources of the People's Republic of China. The mine is the Qarhan Salt Lake Potash - Magnesium Mine of Golmud Zangge Potash Fertilizer Co., Ltd., with an area of 724.3493 square kilometers and a mining depth from 2,680 meters to 2,658 meters above sea level. The mining minerals include the main mineral of potash salt, and the associated minerals of salt, magnesium salt, lithium ore, and boron ore [3]. 2. Strategy - The futures market opened high and closed low on the day. There was some support during the consumption peak season. The short - term supply - demand pattern was good, and the inventory continued to decline, providing some support to the market. It was expected that the market would fluctuate in the short term. The policy disturbances at the mine end had weakened to some extent. If the mines were restarted later and consumption weakened, the market might decline [4]. - Unilateral: In the short term, conduct range - bound operations and sell hedges on rallies [4]. - There were no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [5].

Report Information - Report Title: Carbonate Lithium Futures Monthly Report [1] - Date: October 10, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Zhang Ping, Yu Feifei, Peng Jinglin [3][4] Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided. Core Viewpoints - In October, domestic carbonate lithium supply is expected to exceed 110,000 tons, with demand continuing to be strong. The demand growth rate is expected to be faster than the supply growth rate, and social inventory is likely to decrease. Considering cost support and uncertainties in the Yichun mining area, the price of carbonate lithium futures is expected to move upward, with a bottom support at 72,000 yuan [8][11]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Future Outlook - **Market Review**: In September, the main carbonate lithium contract fluctuated weakly, with a monthly decline of 5.68%. The total position decreased by 8.9% to 678,000 lots. The spot lithium price followed the futures price, with a monthly decline of 7.7%. The social inventory decreased by 4,311 tons, indicating a turning point [10]. - **Future Outlook**: In October, domestic carbonate lithium supply is expected to exceed 110,000 tons. Demand is expected to continue to grow, and the demand growth rate is likely to be faster than the supply growth rate. Social inventory is expected to decrease further. The price of carbonate lithium futures is expected to move upward, with a bottom support at 72,000 yuan [11]. 2. Supply and Demand Analysis - **Lithium Ore**: By the end of September, the price of Australian ore with 6% lithium content decreased by 7% to $835/ton. In August, domestic lithium ore imports decreased by 17.5% month-on-month. Chinese lithium ore production decreased due to a significant reduction in lithium mica output. In the future, Australian ore supply is expected to increase steadily, African lithium ore production is growing, and American lithium ore supply is expected to increase slightly. Chinese lithium ore production is also expected to increase [15][16][17]. - **Future Lithium Ore Supply Increment**: In 2025, Australian ore production is expected to reach 479,000 tons of LCE, African lithium ore production is expected to increase by 64,000 tons of LCE to 267,000 tons of LCE, American lithium ore supply is expected to increase by 9,000 tons to 81,000 tons of LCE, and Chinese lithium ore production is expected to reach 255,000 tons of LCE. In 2026, the supply of lithium ore from various regions is expected to continue to increase [21][24][26]. - **High Growth in Carbonate Lithium Production Despite Salt Factory Losses**: In September, domestic carbonate lithium production reached a record high of 87,260 tons, a year-on-year increase of 52% and a month-on-month increase of 2%. In August, carbonate lithium imports increased significantly. Although salt factories are operating at a loss, carbonate lithium production continues to grow. In October, carbonate lithium production is expected to exceed 90,000 tons [29]. - **Future Carbonate Lithium Supply Increment**: In 2025, global carbonate lithium production is expected to increase by 310,000 tons, and in 2026, it is expected to increase by 275,000 tons [33]. 3. Demand Side: High Growth of Lithium Batteries Driven by New Energy Vehicles and Energy Storage Demand - **Increase in Cathode Material Production and Price Resistance**: By the end of September, the prices of cathode materials showed mixed trends. In September, the production of cathode materials increased, with lithium iron phosphate leading the way. In October, the production of ternary cathode materials and lithium iron phosphate is expected to continue to increase [35][36]. - **Increase in Lithium Battery Price and Quantity and Good Export Performance**: By the end of September, the prices of lithium batteries increased. In September, Chinese lithium battery production increased significantly, and exports continued to increase. The inventory of lithium batteries decreased [47][48]. - **New Energy Vehicle Sales Growth Led by China and Europe**: From January to August, global new energy vehicle sales increased by 29.5% year-on-year to 13.286 million units. In 2025, global new energy vehicle sales are expected to increase by 32% year-on-year to 23.56 million units, and in 2026, the growth rate is expected to drop to 24% [56][58]. - **High Growth in the Energy Storage Field Unaffected by Policy Disturbances**: In 2025, the global new energy storage installation is expected to reach 328 GWh, driving an increase in energy storage battery demand of 274 GWh to 644 GWh. In 2026, the global new energy storage installation is expected to reach 420 GWh [59][60]. 4. Carbonate Lithium Production Cost Analysis - The production costs of carbonate lithium from different raw materials vary significantly. In the third quarter of 2025, the integrated costs of mica, spodumene, and salt lake all decreased slightly. The current cost support level for carbonate lithium is around 62,000 yuan [61]. 5. Supply and Demand Balance Sheet - In August, domestic social inventory decreased by 590 tons to 141,100 tons, indicating a turning point. In September, domestic carbonate lithium production is expected to decline slightly, and social inventory is expected to decrease further [63][64].

Core Insights - The discovery of the "Asian Lithium Belt" in China, spanning 2800 kilometers across four provinces, significantly increases China's lithium reserves from 6% to 16.5% of the global total, elevating its global ranking from sixth to second [1][3][12] Group 1: Importance of Lithium - Lithium is referred to as the "white oil" of the new energy era, essential for lithium-ion batteries used in smartphones, electric vehicles, and energy storage systems [3][8] - The International Energy Agency predicts that global lithium demand will increase nearly fivefold by 2040, with clean energy technologies contributing 90% of this growth [3] Group 2: Exploration Efforts - The exploration team led by Wang Denghong has been working in remote high-altitude areas since 2011, facing challenging conditions to discover over 70 lithium-rich mineral sites along the belt [5][16] - The Jiajika mine field is noted as one of the most concentrated areas for spodumene resources globally, with over 500 pegmatite veins identified [7] Group 3: China's Lithium Dependency - Despite its rich lithium resources, China is the largest consumer of lithium globally, with over 60% of the 2024 projected consumption of 1.5 million tons [8][10] - China's reliance on imported lithium concentrates exceeds 70%, posing risks to its new energy development [10] Group 4: Market Dynamics - The discovery of the "Asian Lithium Belt" is expected to increase China's self-sufficiency in lithium from 30% to 60% and potentially meet 80% of domestic demand by 2030 [10][12] - The price of lithium carbonate has surged from 40,000 yuan per ton in 2015 to a peak of 600,000 yuan per ton in 2025, coinciding with a dramatic increase in electric vehicle sales [12] Group 5: Technological Innovations - The exploration team has developed innovative theories and technologies for lithium mineralization, including a "multi-cyclic deep circulation" theory and various new mining methods [14][16] - Techniques such as "biological prospecting" and the integration of artificial intelligence have been employed to enhance exploration efficiency and environmental sustainability [16][18] Group 6: Economic Impact - The development of the "Asian Lithium Belt" is expected to stimulate regional economic growth, with companies like Ningde Times and Tianqi Lithium actively investing in the area [19][21] - The establishment of local companies, such as Guocheng Mining, signifies a positive economic shift for regions like Maerkang, which now hosts its first local listed company [21][23] Group 7: Strategic Positioning - The discovery positions China as a potential rule-maker in the global lithium market, challenging the dominance of Western countries in battery materials [12][23] - The "Asian Lithium Belt" not only secures resources for China's new energy industry but also enhances its strategic standing in the global energy transition [23]

Core Viewpoint - The significant net buying of 7.83 billion by Ganfeng Lithium indicates a strong interest from institutional and northbound funds in high-growth sectors, particularly in the energy metals, battery, and semiconductor industries [1][5]. Group 1: Ganfeng Lithium - Ganfeng Lithium topped the trading board with a net buying amount of 7.83 billion and reached the daily limit up, reflecting substantial capital inflow [1][3]. - Institutional investors contributed 5.21 billion, while northbound funds added 1.6 billion, suggesting a long-term investment strategy rather than short-term speculation [3]. Group 2: Other Notable Stocks - Tianji Co., a battery sector company, saw a net buying of 3.15 billion, with institutions investing 4.42 billion, indicating confidence in battery technology advancements and energy storage opportunities [3]. - Dazhong Semiconductor experienced a 20% limit up with institutional purchases of 3.58 billion, aligning with the anticipated recovery in the semiconductor industry and accelerated domestic substitution [3]. Group 3: Capital Flow Insights - Northbound funds showed interest in stocks like Yandong Micro and Western Superconducting, both in high-growth sectors, while also investing 1.23 billion in Shenzhen Technology, hinting at a potential rise in the consumer electronics sector [4]. - There were discrepancies in capital flow, as Dazhong Semiconductor was heavily bought by institutions while northbound funds sold 34 million, indicating differing views on specific stocks [4]. Group 4: Market Trends and Indicators - The trading board serves as a barometer for capital direction, with Ganfeng Lithium's net buying being part of a broader trend towards high-growth sectors [5]. - Key indicators such as lithium prices and semiconductor capacity utilization rates are crucial for long-term investment strategies, emphasizing the importance of monitoring these metrics [5].

Market Overview - On October 9, the A-share market opened strongly after the holiday, with all three major indices rising. The Shanghai Composite Index increased by 1.32% to close at 3933.97 points, marking the highest level since August 2015 [2] - The Shenzhen Component Index rose by 1.47% to 13725.56 points, and the ChiNext Index increased by 0.73% to 3261.82 points, both reaching new highs since February 2022 [2] Sector Performance - The non-ferrous metals sector has been the standout performer in the A-share market, with a year-to-date increase of 77.56%, outperforming hardware equipment (59.07%) and semiconductors (58.74%) [2] - On October 9, the non-ferrous metals, hardware equipment, and semiconductor stocks saw significant gains, with the non-ferrous metals sector rising by 6.67% [6] Notable Stocks - Key stocks in the non-ferrous metals sector, such as Western Superconducting (688122.SH), Northern Rare Earth (600111.SH), and Luoyang Molybdenum (603993.SH), hit the daily limit up [6] - Gold stocks also performed well, with companies like Shandong Gold (600547.SH) and Zhongjin Gold (600589.SH) reaching historical highs [6] Global Influences - International gold prices surged past $4000 per ounce, contributing to the rise in domestic gold prices, which reached 1160 yuan per gram [6] - The recent increase in prices for various non-ferrous metals, including copper, tin, cobalt, zinc, and aluminum, was noted during the holiday period [7] Future Outlook - Analysts predict a "shaking upward" trend for the market in October, with expectations of continued inflow of capital and a stable upward trajectory for indices [8] - The upcoming Fourth Plenary Session is anticipated to influence market sentiment positively, while the third-quarter earnings reports are expected to show a rebound in profitability across most sectors [8][9]

Summary of Key Points Core Viewpoint - The trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Connect reached a total of 360.165 billion, with Zijin Mining and CATL leading in individual stock trading volume. The non-ferrous metals sector saw the highest net inflow of funds, while the electric power ETF experienced a significant increase in trading volume. Group 1: Trading Volume and Stock Performance - The total trading amount for the Shanghai Stock Connect was 177.724 billion, while the Shenzhen Stock Connect was 182.441 billion [2] - Zijin Mining topped the Shanghai Stock Connect with a trading amount of 45.60 billion, while CATL led the Shenzhen Stock Connect with 63.18 billion [3][4] Group 2: Sector Performance - The non-ferrous metals sector had the highest net inflow of funds at 42.78 billion, followed by electric power equipment and construction engineering [5] - The non-bank financial sector experienced the largest net outflow of funds at -68.83 billion [6] Group 3: ETF Trading - The electric power ETF (159611) saw a trading volume increase of 202%, making it the top performer in terms of growth [9] - The Hong Kong Securities ETF (513090) had the highest trading volume overall [8] Group 4: Futures Positioning - In the four major futures contracts, both IH and IC contracts saw an increase in short positions, while IF contracts saw an increase in long positions [10] Group 5: Institutional and Retail Activity - Institutions were active in the market, with significant purchases in lithium battery stocks, including 5.21 billion in Ganfeng Lithium and 4.58 billion in Tianji Shares [12][14] - Retail investors showed varied activity, with significant purchases in stocks like Cambridge Technology and Zhongzhou Special Materials [14][15]

Group 1 - The core argument of the article highlights the significant role of strategic resource products in the current market, particularly with a critical time point approaching at the end of October [3][4] - The domestic stock market is currently led by strategic resource products, which have shown impressive performance, influenced by global liquidity and geopolitical dynamics [3] - Recent announcements from China's Ministry of Commerce regarding export controls on rare earths indicate a strategic move to leverage these resources in international negotiations, particularly against advanced chip manufacturing [3][4] Group 2 - The article emphasizes that rare earths should not be viewed merely as event-driven commodities; rather, they are increasingly being utilized as tools in international relations, a trend likely to intensify in the near term [4] - The upcoming high-level meetings between China and the U.S., as well as with major East Asian countries, are expected to further elevate the importance of strategic resource products, providing upward support and attracting capital [4]