新华财经北京1月9日电加拿大统计局1月9日发布数据显示，尽管加拿大就业人数连续第四个月增长，但 劳动力供给的快速扩张导致失业率再度上升。12月全国失业率环比上升0.3个百分点，达到6.8%，高于 市场预期的6.7%。 当月，加拿大新增就业岗位8,200个，使过去四个月累计就业增长达188,800人。这一表现超出经济学家 此前预测的减少2,500人。就业增长主要由全职岗位推动，当月全职就业增加50,200人，同时自雇人数亦 有所上升。行业层面，医疗保健和社会援助领域新增20,800个职位，建筑业增加11,200个岗位。然而， 兼职就业人数减少42,000人，部分抵消了整体就业增长。 12月劳动力规模（即就业人口与积极求职者总和）激增81,000人，为2024年11月以来最大单月增幅，主 要由安大略省和魁北克省带动。劳动参与率因此上升至65.4%。 加拿大统计局指出，尽管美国关税政策对出口和投资构成压力，劳动力市场仍展现出一定韧性。然而， 失业率连续第二个月维持在6.8%的高位——该水平为2021年以来除疫情期间外的最高值——引发市场 对劳动力市场真实健康状况的重新评估。 当前失业率上升并非源于岗位流失，而是更多 ...

（来源：领盛Optivest） 基本面总结： 1．加拿大11月失业率降至16个月低点，兼职岗位激增成主要动力 美国商务部最新数据显示，美国9月消费者支出在此前连续三个月强劲增长后仅录得0.3%的温和增幅，反映第三季度末经济动能减弱。在高生活成本及疲 弱劳动力市场的双重压力下，需求受到抑制。 加拿大11月失业率降至16个月来的最低水平，而这一变化主要由兼职岗位的大幅增加所推动。数据显示，加拿大11月失业率降至6.5%，创2024年7月以来 的新低，当月净增加就业岗位53，600个，使得自9月以来的新增就业岗位累计达到181，000个。与此前美国加征关税并造成贸易不确定性、从而抑制企业 招聘的前八个月相比，加拿大就业市场自9月起呈现明显复苏。 11月失业率下降的主要原因是兼职劳动力净增加了63，000人，增量集中在医疗保健和社会援助行业。此外，政府实施的移民限制政策导致劳动力规模缩 小，这在一定程度上也对失业率的下降产生了影响。此前路透社调查的分析师普遍预计11月就业岗位将减少5，000个，并预期失业率将小幅升至7%，因 此实际数据明显好于市场预期。 加拿大蒙特利尔银行首席经济学家道格·波特指出，失业率在11月大 ...

Core Viewpoint - The July employment data in the U.S. showed a significant decline, with non-farm payrolls increasing by only 73,000, which is below the expected 104,000. Additionally, the data for the previous two months was notably revised downwards by a total of 258,000 jobs [1][5]. Employment Data Analysis - The July employment report indicated a reduction of 10,000 jobs in the government sector, while the private sector added 83,000 jobs, which is below the expected 100,000. The healthcare (+79,000), retail trade (+16,000), and finance (+15,000) sectors were the main contributors to job growth, whereas professional and business services (-14,000), manufacturing (-11,000), and government (-10,000) sectors were the main detractors [3][20]. - The employment diffusion index, which measures the breadth of employment growth, increased to 51.2% in July from 47.2% previously, but the three-month average remains low at 49%, significantly below the projected 53.8% for 2024 [3][20]. Unemployment Rate Insights - The unemployment rate (U3) rose slightly from 4.12% to 4.25% in July, with the rate for new entrants to the job market increasing from 0.42% to 0.58%. The permanent unemployment rate remained stable at 1.11%. Notably, the number of individuals transitioning from employment to unemployment increased significantly, reflecting a weakening trend in household surveys [21][22]. Federal Reserve's Monetary Policy Response - The Federal Reserve decided not to cut interest rates in its July meeting, with two members voting against the decision. The weak non-farm payroll data somewhat supported their stance. Market expectations for a rate cut in September surged, with the probability rising to 80.3% from 37.7% [4][25][26]. - The market reacted negatively to the significant slowdown in non-farm data, raising concerns about the impact of tariffs on the U.S. economy. This led to declines in major stock indices and a drop in U.S. Treasury yields [27].

Group 1 - The total non-farm employment in July showed little change, increasing by 73,000, remaining stable since April [2][8] - The unemployment rate in July was 4.2%, with 7.2 million unemployed individuals, showing minimal change from the previous month [3][4] - The healthcare and social assistance sectors continued to see job growth, while federal government employment continued to decline [8][9][10] Group 2 - The number of long-term unemployed individuals (those unemployed for 27 weeks or more) increased by 179,000 to 1.8 million, accounting for 24.9% of the total unemployed population [5] - The labor force participation rate in July was 62.2%, unchanged from the previous month but down 0.5 percentage points year-over-year [6] - The average hourly wage for all private non-farm employees increased by $0.12, or 0.3%, reaching $36.44, with a year-over-year increase of 3.9% [11]

Core Insights - The JOLTS report indicates an unexpected rise in job vacancies in April, suggesting a healthy labor demand despite economic uncertainties [1][4] - The report shows a rebound in hiring activity, with job openings reaching 7.391 million, exceeding expectations of 7.1 million [1][4] - The overall trend in job vacancies has remained stable between 7 million and 8 million over the past year, with a significant increase in private sector job openings [3][4] Group 1: Job Market Dynamics - April job openings increased by 0.691 million from the previous month, with the prior month's figure revised slightly upward [1][4] - The ratio of job vacancies to unemployed individuals remains at 1.0, consistent with pre-pandemic levels, indicating a balanced labor supply and demand [4] - Job openings in April were primarily driven by the private sector, particularly in professional and business services, healthcare, and social assistance [4] Group 2: Hiring and Layoff Trends - Hiring in April reached its highest level in nearly a year, with an increase of 169,000 to 5.6 million [4] - Layoffs rose to the highest level since October of the previous year, increasing by 196,000 to 1.79 million [4] - The number of voluntary resignations decreased by 150,000 to 3.2 million, indicating a slight decline in worker confidence [4][6] Group 3: Economic Outlook and Federal Reserve Implications - The labor market is returning to a more normal state, supporting the Federal Reserve's view of a healthy employment situation [6] - Economists anticipate a slowdown in the labor market in the coming months due to the impact of tariff policies, although current data does not yet reflect this [6] - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain the benchmark interest rate in the range of 4.25%-4.5%, with potential rate cuts not anticipated until September [6] Group 4: Data Reliability and Market Reactions - Some economists question the reliability of the JOLTS data due to a low response rate in the current survey [7] - Following the JOLTS report, market reactions included a decline in gold prices, an increase in the dollar index, and a rise in U.S. Treasury yields [8]