Core Viewpoint - The July employment data in the U.S. showed a significant decline, with non-farm payrolls increasing by only 73,000, which is below the expected 104,000. Additionally, the data for the previous two months was notably revised downwards by a total of 258,000 jobs [1][5]. Employment Data Analysis - The July employment report indicated a reduction of 10,000 jobs in the government sector, while the private sector added 83,000 jobs, which is below the expected 100,000. The healthcare (+79,000), retail trade (+16,000), and finance (+15,000) sectors were the main contributors to job growth, whereas professional and business services (-14,000), manufacturing (-11,000), and government (-10,000) sectors were the main detractors [3][20]. - The employment diffusion index, which measures the breadth of employment growth, increased to 51.2% in July from 47.2% previously, but the three-month average remains low at 49%, significantly below the projected 53.8% for 2024 [3][20]. Unemployment Rate Insights - The unemployment rate (U3) rose slightly from 4.12% to 4.25% in July, with the rate for new entrants to the job market increasing from 0.42% to 0.58%. The permanent unemployment rate remained stable at 1.11%. Notably, the number of individuals transitioning from employment to unemployment increased significantly, reflecting a weakening trend in household surveys [21][22]. Federal Reserve's Monetary Policy Response - The Federal Reserve decided not to cut interest rates in its July meeting, with two members voting against the decision. The weak non-farm payroll data somewhat supported their stance. Market expectations for a rate cut in September surged, with the probability rising to 80.3% from 37.7% [4][25][26]. - The market reacted negatively to the significant slowdown in non-farm data, raising concerns about the impact of tariffs on the U.S. economy. This led to declines in major stock indices and a drop in U.S. Treasury yields [27].

SHMET 网讯：美国劳工统计局（BLS）今日报告称，7月非农就业总人数变动不大（+7.3万），自4月以来几乎没有明显变化。7月失业率为4.2%，同样 变化不大。医疗保健和社会援助行业就业继续上升，而联邦政府的就业岗位持续减少。 本新闻稿的数据来源于两项月度调查。家庭调查按人口特征衡量劳动力状况，包括失业情况；机构调查则按行业统计非农就业、工时和薪资。有关这两 项调查所用概念和统计方法的详细说明，请参见技术说明。 家庭调查数据 7月失业率为4.2%，失业人数为720万人，均较前月变化不大。自2024年5月以来，失业率一直维持在4.0%至4.2%的窄幅区间内。 主要劳动力群体中，成年男性（4.0%）、成年女性（3.7%）、青少年（15.2%）、白人（3.7%）、黑人（7.2%）、亚裔（3.9%）和西班牙裔（5.0%） 的失业率在7月均变化不大。 7月，新进入劳动力市场的失业人数增加27.5万至98.5万。新进入者是指首次寻找工作的失业人口。 长期失业人口（失业27周及以上）在7月增加17.9万，达到180万人，占全部失业人口的24.9%。 7月劳动力参与率为62.2%，与前月变化不大，但较去年同期下降0.5个百 ...

美国劳工统计局周二公布报告显示，尽管美国经济不确定性加剧，4月JOLTS职位空缺意外上升，好于预期和前值，并且招聘活动有所回升，显示劳动力需 求依然健康。 美国4月JOLTS职位空缺739.1万人，预期710万人，前值从719.2万人小幅上修至720万人。回顾上个月数据，当时JOLTS职位空缺创半年新低，大幅不及预 期。 自2022年3月创下1218万人的纪录以来，由于美联储大幅加息导致需求放缓，JOLTS职位空缺在大部分时间里大体呈现下降的态势。此前几个月伴随着美联 储降息，JOLTS数据一度出现反弹。4月的JOLTS再次反弹。总的来说，JOLTS职位空缺数据波动较大，每月可能会出现高达50万个的变动。 经济学家更倾向于从整体趋势看待JOLTS报告，过去一年职位空缺大致稳定在700万至800万之间。 美联储官员们密切关注的职位空缺与失业人数之比保持在1.0，与疫情前的水平一致。而在2022年，该比例一度达到2.0。这是衡量劳动力供需平衡的一个关 键指标。 分行业来看，4月职位空缺的增长主要由私营行业推动，包括专业和商业服务、医疗保健和社会援助。虽然州和地方教育部门的职位空缺减少拖累了整体政 府岗位，但联邦政 ...