美国劳工部公布的数据还显示，美国2025年12月失业率为 4.4%，前一个月的失业率则从4.6%修订为 4.5%。美国劳动参与率则从前月的62.5%回落至62.4%。美国12月失业人数为750.3万，低于前月修订后 的778.1万。其中，失业时间短于5周的人数回落至230万，而长期失业人数保持稳定。 新华财经纽约1月9日电（记者刘亚南）美国劳工部9日公布的数据显示，2025年12月美国新增非农就业 岗位低于预期，此前两个月数据则均被下调，显示美国劳动力市场在2025年年底持续走软。 数据显示，美国2025年12月份新增5万个非农就业岗位，低于市场共识预期的5.5万个。同时，11月份新 增非农就业岗位从6.4万个向下修订为5.6万个，而10月份非农就业岗位从萎缩10.5万个修订为萎缩17.3万 个。 其中，2025年12月份餐饮、医疗卫生和社会救助行业新增就业岗位分别为2.7万个、2.1万个和1.7万个， 联邦政府就业岗位小幅增加0.2万个，而零售业就业岗位则减少2.5万个。 2025年12月，美国员工平均时薪环比和同比涨幅分别为0.3%和3.8%。 当日，美国劳工部把2025年2月、5月和7月的失业率均上调了 ...

Group 1 - The delayed employment report from the U.S. Labor Department indicates a complex labor market in early autumn, with non-farm payrolls increasing by 119,000 in September, significantly exceeding the market expectation of 50,000 [1][3] - The unemployment rate rose to 4.4%, the highest level since October 2021, while the August data was revised down to a loss of 4,000 jobs, marking the first negative value since January 2024 [1][3] Group 2 - The September employment report presents conflicting signals, with strong job growth reported but an increase in the unemployment rate from 4.3% in August to 4.4% in September [5] - The U-6 unemployment rate, which includes part-time workers seeking full-time employment, slightly decreased to 8% [5] - Average hourly earnings increased by 0.2% month-over-month, below the expected 0.3%, and year-over-year growth was at 3.8%, slightly above the expected 3.7% [5] Group 3 - The healthcare sector added 43,000 jobs in September, continuing a stable growth trend over the past year [7] - The restaurant and drinking places sector saw an increase of 37,000 jobs, while social assistance added 14,000 jobs [7] - Conversely, the transportation and warehousing sector lost 25,000 jobs, and federal government employment decreased by 3,000, totaling a loss of 97,000 jobs since January [7] Group 4 - There is increasing division within the Federal Reserve regarding the decision to lower interest rates in December, with some officials suggesting a rate cut may be appropriate if economic conditions align with expectations [9] - Following the release of the meeting minutes, market expectations for a rate cut in December significantly decreased, with the probability of maintaining rates rising to 67.2% [9] Group 5 - The Federal Reserve will face challenges due to the lack of key economic data, as the employment reports for October and November will be combined and released after the December meeting [11] - The absence of October unemployment data due to the government shutdown adds to the uncertainty surrounding the Fed's decision-making process [11]

Group 1: Employment Data Overview - The U.S. non-farm payrolls for September showed an increase of 119,000 jobs, significantly exceeding the market expectation of 50,000, marking the largest monthly gain since April [1] - The unemployment rate rose to 4.4%, slightly above the previous value of 4.3% and higher than the market expectation of 4.3%, indicating a structural change as more potential workers entered the job market [3] - Average hourly wage growth year-on-year was recorded at 3.8%, surpassing the expected 3.7%, while the month-on-month growth was only 0.2%, below the expected 0.3% [3] Group 2: Sector-Specific Employment Trends - The healthcare sector was a key driver of job growth, adding 43,000 jobs in September, with outpatient care contributing 23,000 and hospitals adding 16,000 [3] - Conversely, several sectors experienced job losses, including a reduction of 3,000 jobs in federal government employment, continuing a trend of workforce downsizing since January [4] - The transportation and warehousing sector saw a decrease of 25,000 jobs, linked to the slowdown in e-commerce growth and supply chain adjustments, while manufacturing lost 6,000 jobs amid ongoing economic recovery challenges [4] Group 3: Market Reactions - Following the data release, spot gold prices initially dropped nearly $20 but later rebounded as the market reacted to dovish signals from wage growth and rising unemployment [4] - Non-U.S. currencies strengthened, with the euro rising 30 points against the dollar and the pound increasing nearly 35 points, while the dollar index faced downward pressure [4] - Traders increased bets on a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve, although the likelihood of a cut in December remains low [4]

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry or Company Involved - The discussion primarily revolves around the U.S. economy and the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, particularly focusing on the implications of the "anti-involution" policy in various industries. Core Points and Arguments 1. **Anti-Involution Policy**: This policy aims to address issues of low prices and disorderly competition within specific industries, primarily targeting local governments and enterprises. It is not a macroeconomic policy but rather an industry-specific measure [2][3] 2. **Beneficiary Industries**: The industries benefiting from the anti-involution policy can be categorized into three groups: - **Group 1**: Industries with low economic activity but recovering profitability, such as wind power, rebar steel, and cement [2] - **Group 2**: Industries with bottoming fundamentals but strong expectations, including photovoltaic, general equipment, and medical devices [2] - **Group 3**: Industries with high economic activity but lacking real estate policy expectations, such as batteries and medical aesthetics [2] 3. **Federal Reserve's Interest Rate Decision**: There is a significant divergence in market opinions regarding the likelihood of a rate cut in September. However, based on economic data, the probability of a rate cut appears substantial [4][11] 4. **Economic Data Insights**: - The second quarter GDP data indicates a slowdown in U.S. economic activity, with internal demand weakening [4] - Personal consumption expenditures increased their contribution to GDP from 0.3% in Q1 to approximately 1% in Q2, while private investment stagnated, negatively impacting GDP [5] 5. **Employment Data**: The July non-farm payroll data showed a significant shortfall, with only 73,000 jobs added, indicating a sharp decline in hiring momentum [6] 6. **Labor Market Dynamics**: Job growth is concentrated in healthcare and social assistance, while goods production and federal government employment are major detractors [7] 7. **Labor Market Indicators**: The labor force participation rate has declined, and the unemployment rate has increased, particularly among Black workers. Long-term unemployment has risen, but hourly wages have been adjusted upward [8] 8. **Manufacturing and Inflation**: The manufacturing sector has shown signs of decline, with pressures on demand and employment. Inflationary pressures are expected to be manageable in the near term [10] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content 1. **Federal Reserve Chair Powell's Remarks**: Powell noted that the weakening supply-demand dynamics in the labor market pose risks, despite a stable unemployment rate [9] 2. **Market Reactions**: The rapid replenishment of the U.S. Treasury General Account (TGA) could lead to rising overnight financing rates, influencing the Fed's decision-making process regarding interest rates [10]

Group 1 - The U.S. labor market showed unexpected weakness in July, with non-farm payrolls increasing by only 73,000 jobs, significantly below the market expectation of over 140,000 jobs [1] - The unemployment rate rose to 4.2%, an increase of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month [1] - The U.S. Labor Department revised down the employment figures for May and June, with a total downward revision of 258,000 jobs, indicating growing concerns about the slowdown in the U.S. economy [1] Group 2 - Job growth in July was primarily driven by the healthcare and social services sectors, which added 55,000 and 18,000 jobs respectively, while federal government employment continued to decline [1] - The average hourly wage for non-farm employees in July was $36.44, reflecting a month-over-month increase of 0.3% and a year-over-year increase of 3.9% [1] - The Federal Reserve officials expressed concerns about the labor market, noting that private sector job growth is nearly stagnant and that the labor market is showing signs of vulnerability [2]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. labor market showed signs of weakness in July, with non-farm payroll growth significantly below expectations, leading to increased speculation about a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September [1][4]. Employment Data - In July, non-farm employment increased by 73,000, which is higher than June's 14,000 but below the Dow Jones estimate of 100,000 [3]. - The employment figures for May and June were revised downwards, with June's numbers adjusted down by 147,000 and May's by 125,000, totaling a downward revision of 258,000 jobs over two months [3]. - The healthcare sector was the primary contributor to job growth in July, adding 55,000 jobs, while the federal government saw a decrease of 12,000 jobs [3]. Wage Growth - Average hourly earnings rose by 0.3%, meeting expectations, while the year-over-year increase of 3.9% slightly exceeded forecasts [4]. Market Reaction - Following the employment report, futures traders increased the likelihood of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September from 40% to 63% [4]. - Major U.S. stock indices opened lower, with the Dow Jones down 1.32%, S&P 500 down 1.48%, and Nasdaq down 1.89% [1][2]. Economic Commentary - Experts noted that the employment report indicates a slow but steady cooling of the labor market, with hiring momentum weakening [4]. - The report was described as a "game-changing" employment report, highlighting a rapid deterioration in the labor market [4]. Political Commentary - President Trump criticized Federal Reserve Chairman Powell for not lowering interest rates and suggested that the Federal Reserve Board should take control if Powell does not make significant cuts [5][6]. - Trump argued that lowering rates would stimulate economic growth and reduce debt repayment costs for the federal government and homebuyers [5].

Group 1 - The total non-farm employment in July showed little change, increasing by 73,000, remaining stable since April [2][8] - The unemployment rate in July was 4.2%, with 7.2 million unemployed individuals, showing minimal change from the previous month [3][4] - The healthcare and social assistance sectors continued to see job growth, while federal government employment continued to decline [8][9][10] Group 2 - The number of long-term unemployed individuals (those unemployed for 27 weeks or more) increased by 179,000 to 1.8 million, accounting for 24.9% of the total unemployed population [5] - The labor force participation rate in July was 62.2%, unchanged from the previous month but down 0.5 percentage points year-over-year [6] - The average hourly wage for all private non-farm employees increased by $0.12, or 0.3%, reaching $36.44, with a year-over-year increase of 3.9% [11]

Core Insights - The June employment report indicates a moderate growth and stability in the U.S. labor market, with non-farm payrolls increasing by 147,000, aligning closely with the 12-month average of 146,000 [1][6] - The unemployment rate remained steady at 4.1%, reflecting a stable labor market environment since May 2024 [1][6] - Long-term unemployment and marginally attached workers have increased, suggesting underlying challenges within the labor market [2][6] Employment Data - Non-farm payrolls added 147,000 jobs in June, a figure that is consistent with the previous year's monthly average [1] - The unemployment rate held at 4.1%, with a total of 7 million unemployed individuals [1] - The labor force participation rate was stable at 62.3%, and the employment-population ratio remained at 59.7% [1] Wage and Hours Analysis - Average hourly earnings in the private non-farm sector rose by 0.2% to $36.30, with a year-over-year growth rate of 3.7%, indicating a decrease from previous years' higher growth rates [2][6] - Average weekly hours worked slightly decreased by 0.1 hours to 34.2 hours, suggesting a potential slowdown in overall labor demand [3] Sector Performance - Job growth in June was primarily concentrated in less economically sensitive sectors, such as state government (especially education) and healthcare, while federal employment continued to decline [3][4] - Most other major industries showed little change in employment numbers, consistent with the overall moderate growth trend [4] Federal Reserve Implications - The report's data supports the Federal Reserve's cautious and data-dependent monetary policy stance, indicating no immediate need for rate hikes or significant cuts [7] - The overall tone of the report aligns with the Fed's goal of achieving a "soft landing" for the economy, allowing for a gradual cooling of economic activity and labor markets [7][8] Market Reactions - Stock markets interpreted the report as a positive signal, reducing the risk of a hard economic landing and indicating manageable wage pressures [8] - Bond markets experienced downward pressure on yields due to the moderate employment and wage data, potentially enhancing expectations for future rate cuts [8] - The direction of the U.S. dollar will depend on market interpretations of this report relative to data from other major economies and its implications for future Fed policy [8]

Core Points - The U.S. labor market remains stable with a non-farm employment increase of 147,000 in June, maintaining an unemployment rate of 4.1% [1][4] - Job growth is concentrated in state government and healthcare sectors, with state government adding 47,000 jobs and healthcare contributing 39,000 jobs [2] - Wage growth is moderate, with average hourly earnings rising by 0.2% to $36.30, while average weekly hours worked slightly decreased [3] Employment Trends - The state government sector saw significant job additions, particularly in education, which accounted for 40,000 of the new jobs [2] - The federal government continues to reduce its workforce, with a loss of 7,000 jobs in June and a total of 69,000 jobs cut since January [2] - Long-term unemployment is a growing concern, with 1.6 million individuals unemployed for 27 weeks or more, representing 23.3% of the total unemployed [4] Labor Market Dynamics - The labor force participation rate remains unchanged at 62.3%, with approximately 6 million individuals willing to work but not actively participating in the labor market [6] - The number of marginally attached workers has increased to 1.8 million, indicating a rise in individuals who are discouraged about job prospects [6] - Revisions to previous employment data show an upward adjustment, with April and May's non-farm employment figures increased by a total of 16,000 jobs [7]

Labor Market Overview - In June, non-farm employment increased by 147,000, with the unemployment rate remaining stable at 4.1% [1][3] - The unemployment rate has been within a narrow range of 4.0% to 4.2% since May 2024 [1] Employment by Demographics - The unemployment rate for Black individuals rose to 6.8%, while adult women and White individuals saw a decrease to 3.6% [1] - Long-term unemployment (27 weeks or more) increased by 190,000 to 1.6 million, accounting for 23.3% of total unemployment [1] Labor Force Participation - The labor force participation rate remained unchanged at 62.3%, with the employment-population ratio steady at 59.7% [1] Part-Time Employment - The number of individuals working part-time for economic reasons was 4.5 million, showing little change [2] - There were 6 million individuals not in the labor force but willing to work, remaining stable from the previous month [2] Non-Farm Employment Growth - Non-farm employment growth was primarily in state government and healthcare sectors, with federal government jobs continuing to decline [3] - State government employment increased by 47,000, mainly in education, while federal jobs decreased by 7,000 [3] Healthcare Sector - The healthcare industry added 39,000 jobs in June, consistent with the average monthly increase of 43,000 over the past year [3] Wage Growth - Average hourly earnings for private non-farm employees rose by $0.08 (0.2%) to $36.30, with a year-over-year increase of 3.7% [4] - Average weekly hours for private non-farm employees slightly decreased by 0.1 hours to 34.2 hours [5] Employment Adjustments - Revisions to previous months showed an increase in April's non-farm employment from 147,000 to 158,000 and May's from 139,000 to 144,000 [5]