丨证券研究报告丨 行业研究丨专题报告丨基础化工 [Table_Title] 化工专题：反内卷，机会何在？ 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 2024 年以来，政府会议多次提到要综合整治"内卷式"恶性竞争。2024 年 7 月，中央政治局 会议明确提出"防止'内卷式'恶性竞争"，12 月进一步升级为"综合整治'内卷式'竞争"。 最新动态来看，中央财经委第六次会议于 7 月 1 日召开，会议强调，纵深推进全国统一大市场 建设，要聚焦重点难点，依法依规治理企业低价无序竞争，引导企业提升产品品质，推动落后 产能有序退出。本轮供给侧改革下，化工在国家"反内卷"政策之下，有何可为？有哪些潜在 投资机会？ 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] SAC：S0490516100002 SFC：BUT911 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 基础化工 cjzqdt11111 [Table_Title2] 化工专题：反内卷，机会何在？ 马太 徐静 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 [Table_Summary2] 为何当前时点关注化工行业反内卷投资机会？ 2024 年以来，政府会议多次提 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the chemical industry is expected to see a recovery in profitability driven by policy support, particularly in upstream sectors closely related to domestic demand [1][2] - The report highlights specific sectors such as polyurethane, coal chemical, petrochemical, and fluorochemical as key areas for potential profit recovery [1][2] - The focus on new materials as a primary development direction for China's chemical industry includes high-value products like robot materials, AI & semiconductor materials, bio-aviation fuel, OLED materials, and COC materials [1][3] Group 2 - The expectation of domestic demand recovery is supported by recent policy measures aimed at revitalizing the economy, with a focus on the chemical industry's upstream sectors [2] - Key companies to watch include Wanhua Chemical (600309), Baofeng Energy (600989), and others in the coal chemical and petrochemical sectors, which are expected to benefit from infrastructure projects in regions like Xinjiang and Tibet [2] - The emphasis on developing new materials is driven by emerging demands from humanoid robots and AI applications, as well as ongoing domestic substitution efforts in the semiconductor field [3] Group 3 - High-quality companies with strong shareholder returns are expected to undergo a revaluation, including major state-owned enterprises in the oil and gas sector and firms in the compound fertilizer and amino acid industries [4] - The report suggests that many sub-sectors within the chemical industry are at a point where they can enhance shareholder returns to reshape investment value [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [7] Core Views - The company plans to invest up to 3.3 billion RMB to build amino acid and supporting projects, increasing annual production capacity of threonine and MSG by 200,000 tons and 250,000 tons respectively [1][2] - The company's threonine and MSG production capacity is expected to rise from 268,000 tons and 420,000 tons in 2024 to 468,000 tons and 670,000 tons in 2027, enhancing its market share [1][2] - The report anticipates that the global threonine capacity and domestic MSG capacity will maintain a CR3 of over 80% by 2027, with the company’s market share projected to increase to 26% and 17% respectively [1][2] Summary by Sections Investment Overview - The project is located in Daqing, Heilongjiang, with a construction period of approximately 22 months and expected annual sales revenue of about 3.9 billion RMB upon reaching full capacity [2] - The company will finance the project through a mix of self-funding and bank loans, each accounting for about 50% [2] Market Conditions - The report notes that the prices for lysine and threonine have seen slight declines, but demand is expected to improve as the peak season approaches and due to the reduction in soybean meal usage [3] - The company’s corn deep processing project in Xinjiang, which includes small amino acid products, is progressing and is expected to contribute to future growth [3] Financial Projections - The report forecasts the company's net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025-2027 to be 1.32 billion, 1.41 billion, and 1.59 billion RMB respectively, representing year-on-year growth of 40%, 7%, and 12% [4] - The estimated EPS for the same period is projected to be 0.80, 0.85, and 0.96 RMB [4] - The target price is set at 9.60 RMB, with a PE ratio of 12 times for 2025, reflecting the company's early-stage project developments [4][8]