聚焦份额增长，短期利润率承压 瑞幸咖啡(LKNCY.OO) 瑞幸咖啡 2025Q3 业绩点评 | [姓名table_Authors] | 电话 | 邮箱 | 登记编号 | [Table_Invest] 评级： | 增持 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 刘越男(分析师) | 021-38677706 | liuyuenan@gtht.com | S0880516030003 | | | | 宋小寒(分析师) | 010-83939087 | songxiaohan@gtht.com | S0880524080011 | | | | | | | | [当前价格 Table_CurPrice] (美元)： | 38.26 | [Table_Industry] 社会服务业 | [Table_Invest] 评级： | 增持 | | --- | --- | | [当前价格 Table_CurPrice] (美元)： | 38.26 | 交易数据 | 52 周内股价区间(美元) | 17.28-39.98 | | --- | --- | | 当前股本(百万股) | 22 ...

走进位于贵阳高新区的网红咖啡店"空谷无界"，宽敞的空间里，咖啡香气与书香、茶香交织，不同业态在这里和谐共存。 "政府的支持让我们更有信心打造一个能在全国出圈的项目，希望为贵阳的咖啡文化、旅游文化做出独到贡献，成为咖啡之城的一个延伸展示。"陈淳表 示，咖啡一定会成为吸引游客来到贵阳的一个重要理由。 在政策东风的吹拂下，贵阳的咖啡香正愈发浓郁。从一家家咖啡店到整个产业生态，从商业行为到文化现象，咖啡正在这片土地上生根发芽，开花结果。 到2027年，当人们提及中国的咖啡文化，贵阳必将成为一个不可忽视的存在。 记者 杨婷 在这里，咖啡不只是咖啡，更是一个连接不同文化、不同业态的载体，融入了阅读、商务洽谈等多种功能，今年8月开业以来，这里已成功举办了发布 会、婚礼、政府招商沙龙等活动。 之所以选择来到贵阳高新区，两位创始人表示这是深思熟虑后的结果："贵阳高新区作为贵阳最具经济与科技活力的区域之一，'科技含量'高，聚集了大 量优质企业，企业和人才对高品质休闲空间有着刚性需求，在我们看来是一块非常适合开咖啡店的宝藏地。"事实证明这一判断准确无误。 近日，贵阳市政府印发《关于贵阳贵安促进咖啡产业发展的实施意见（试行）》，提出 ...

Core Points - The 2025 Guangdong Province Barista Skills Competition and the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Youth Barista Skills Innovation and Entrepreneurship Exchange Event will be held from November 28 to 30 in Jiangmen [1] - The event is co-hosted by the Guangdong Provincial Human Resources and Social Security Department and the Jiangmen Municipal Government, featuring 23 teams and 67 participants from Guangdong, Hong Kong, and Macao [1] - The competition aims to promote the development of skilled barista talent and the high-quality growth of the coffee industry, fostering an atmosphere that values and respects skills [1] Event Details - The theme of the competition is "Gathering Coffee in the Overseas Chinese Capital, Skills for a Better Guangdong" [1] - The competition includes two main modules: "Coffee Latte Art" and "Coffee Cup Tasting," assessing participants' professional skills and overall qualities [1] - Winners of the finals will receive vocational skill level certificates as Barista Technicians (Level 2) or Senior Workers (Level 3) according to national standards [1]

Core Insights - The 138th Canton Fair opened on October 15, showcasing the theme "Mutual Benefit Worldwide: Guangdong Foreign Trade for a Thousand Years" with record-breaking participation and exhibition space [2][3] - The fair features over 3.2 million exhibitors and 74,600 booths, marking a historical high, with more than 3,600 companies participating for the first time [2] - The event highlights the evolution of the Canton Fair from its inception in 1956 to its current status, reflecting China's transformation towards innovation, intelligence, and sustainability in foreign trade [2] Exhibition Highlights - The exhibition area reached 1.55 million square meters, with over 110,000 new products expected to be showcased, including 35,300 smart products [3][4] - The fair introduced a smart medical section featuring innovations such as medical robots and intelligent diagnostic tools, with over 60% of new products applying new technologies [3] - The event also implemented advanced services, including a comprehensive service counter at the airport and seamless access for international visitors, enhancing the overall experience [4] Technological Innovations - The fair showcased the world's first 6th generation COFE+ fully intelligent coffee machine, which combines various technologies to redefine global coffee standards [4] - The use of Bluetooth, Beidou, and 5G technology for navigation within the exhibition halls demonstrates the fair's commitment to integrating cutting-edge technology [4] - The Canton Fair is positioned not just as a trading venue but as a catalyst for industry transformation and a platform for innovative applications [4]

Domestic News - As of June 2025, China's foreign financial assets reached $110,645 billion, with foreign liabilities at $72,555 billion, resulting in a net foreign asset of $38,090 billion [1] - The China Railway Group reported that on October 3, the national railway sent 18.16 million passengers, maintaining a high level of passenger flow for four consecutive days, with an expected 18.2 million passengers on October 4 [1] - The Shanghai Railway Group indicated that during the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival holiday, it is expected to send 3.85 million passengers on October 4, a 3.9% increase compared to the same day last year [2] - The China Geographic Information Industry Association projected that the total output value of the national geographic information industry will reach nearly 1 trillion yuan by 2025, growing nearly 30% from the end of the 13th Five-Year Plan [2] International News - Boeing is expected to delay the delivery of the 777X aircraft again, with the new estimated delivery time pushed from 2026 to early 2027, potentially resulting in losses of billions of dollars [5]

Core Insights - Guiyang is emerging as a new "Coffee City" with significant growth in independent coffee shops and a unique local flavor, attracting tourists and creating a vibrant coffee culture [1][2][6] - The success of Guiyang's coffee scene is attributed to low chain density, affordable rents, and a strong community that fosters skill sharing and innovation among baristas [2][3] - Despite its rapid growth, Guiyang faces challenges such as a limited consumer base, a shortage of skilled operational talent, and supply chain issues due to its inland location [3][4] Group 1: Growth and Popularity - Guiyang has a coffee shop density of one for every 2,000 residents, with over 20 national champions emerging from the city [1] - The city has gained popularity on social media, with nearly 20 million views related to Guiyang coffee on platforms like Xiaohongshu [1] - The local football team representing Guiyang in a national tournament is named "Guiyang Coffee Team," highlighting the city's branding efforts [1] Group 2: Community and Culture - Independent coffee shops in Guiyang serve as training grounds for baristas, promoting a culture of collaboration and skill development [2] - The local coffee culture integrates unique local flavors, such as the "Folded Root Americano," which reflects the region's culinary heritage [1][2] Group 3: Challenges and Concerns - The rapid increase in coffee shops may dilute customer traffic, as the local population of 6.6 million may not sustain such density [3] - There is a scarcity of operational talent in areas like branding and digital marketing, which poses challenges for business expansion [3] - Supply chain issues, including reliance on external sources for coffee beans and logistical inefficiencies, hinder the growth of the coffee industry in Guiyang [3][4] Group 4: Policy and Future Development - Current policies to support the coffee industry in Guiyang need further refinement to address key issues such as talent acquisition and supply chain infrastructure [4] - Initiatives like the establishment of the Guiyang Coffee Industry Association and the launch of a bilingual coffee map indicate proactive steps towards industry development [6] - The city aims to redefine its cultural image through coffee, appealing to younger consumers and enhancing its tourism profile [6][7]

Core Insights - The article highlights the success story of a young coffee shop owner, Nafeis Dilixtati, in Urumqi, Xinjiang, who has integrated local culture with modern coffee trends, leading to significant popularity and customer engagement [3][4]. Company Summary - Nafeis Dilixtati opened her coffee shop, "A Coffee Shop," two years ago in southern Urumqi, and it has since gained over a million views on social media platforms [3]. - The shop features a menu that combines traditional coffee offerings with creative drinks inspired by local specialties such as apricots and melons [3][4]. - The shop has experienced a surge in popularity, leading to increased customer traffic and a need for quality control, prompting a temporary closure for adjustments [4]. Industry Summary - The coffee culture in Northwest China is evolving, with independent coffee shops thriving amidst a growing trend of cultural and deep travel experiences [5]. - Young entrepreneurs are increasingly viewing coffee as not just a business but a lifestyle, contributing to the development of the coffee industry in the region [5]. - The article mentions the emergence of various coffee-related businesses, including mobile coffee services in scenic areas, showcasing the diverse opportunities within the coffee sector in Xinjiang [5].

Core Points - A bipartisan group of U.S. lawmakers has introduced a bill to exempt all coffee products from import tariffs, which could alleviate pressure on Brazilian coffee exports [1] - The U.S. government imposed a 50% tariff on Brazilian coffee in late July, leading to tight coffee supplies and soaring prices in the U.S. [1] - Brazil was once the largest coffee supplier to the U.S., accounting for one-third of total coffee imports [1] - Coffee prices in U.S. supermarkets rose by 20.9% year-on-year in August, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics [1] - The introduction of tariffs has resulted in a 50% increase in Arabica coffee futures prices since the policy was implemented [1] - The proposed bill aims to retroactively exempt tariffs imposed since January 19 of this year, covering green coffee, roasted coffee, decaffeinated coffee, and coffee substitutes [1]

Core Insights - Brazil's coffee exports to the United States decreased significantly in August, with imports dropping to 301,000 bags (60 kg each), a year-on-year decline of 46% and a month-on-month decrease of 26% [1] - Germany has overtaken the United States as the largest overseas market for Brazilian coffee, importing 414,000 bags in the same month [1] - The increase in tariffs imposed by the U.S. government on Brazilian coffee since early August has further limited export opportunities to the U.S. market [1] Market Impact - The imposition of high tariffs has intensified volatility in the international coffee market, leading to a substantial increase in Arabica coffee futures prices on the New York Commodity Exchange, which rose by 29.7% from $2.978 per pound to $3.861 per pound between August 7 and the end of August [1] - The chairman of the Brazilian Coffee Exporters Council, Márcio Ferreira, warned that sustained high tariffs would result in higher coffee prices for U.S. consumers, as no other coffee-producing country can quickly fill the supply gap left by Brazil [1] Industry Representation - The Brazilian Coffee Exporters Council, established in 1999, represents the Brazilian coffee export industry and currently has over 100 members, covering approximately 96% of the coffee market in Brazil [1]

Core Insights - Brazil's coffee exports in August 2023 decreased by 17.5% year-on-year, totaling 3.144 million bags, while export revenue increased by 12.7% to $1.101 billion [1] - The decline in export volume is attributed to reduced inventory following record exports in 2024 and lower production levels this season [1] - The U.S. imposed a 50% tariff on Brazilian coffee, significantly impacting exports to the U.S. market [1] Export Performance - In the first eight months of 2023, Brazil exported a total of 25.323 million bags of coffee, a decrease of 20.9% year-on-year, but export revenue reached $9.668 billion due to rising prices [2] - The U.S. remains the largest buyer of Brazilian coffee, importing 4.028 million bags, which accounts for 15.9% of total exports, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 20.8% [2] - Arabica coffee exports accounted for 79.8% of total exports, totaling 20.209 million bags, with a year-on-year decline of 13% [2] Market Dynamics - The U.S. imported 301,000 bags of coffee from Brazil in August, a significant drop of 46% year-on-year and 26% month-on-month, with Germany surpassing the U.S. as the largest importer for that month [1] - The price of Arabica coffee futures rose by 29.7% from August 7 to the end of August, increasing from $2.978 per pound to $3.861 per pound [1] - The Santos port remains the largest coffee export port in Brazil, accounting for over 80.2% of total exports with more than 20.31 million bags shipped [2]