股票研究 /[Table_Date] 2026.03.01 Q4 同店环比降速，持续推进规模增长 瑞幸咖啡(LKNCY.OO) 瑞幸咖啡 2025Q4 业绩点评 | [姓名table_Authors] | 电话 | 邮箱 | 登记编号 | [Table_Invest] 评级： | 增持 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 刘越男(分析师) | 021-38677706 | liuyuenan@gtht.com | S0880516030003 | | | | 宋小寒(分析师) | 010-83939087 | songxiaohan@gtht.com | S0880524080011 | [当前价格 Table_CurPrice] (美元)： | 38.26 | 本报告导读： 公司聚焦增长、持续关注份额，利润率短期波动，不改长期价值。 投资要点： 风险提示：开店不及预期，同店下滑明显，消费需求疲软。 | 财务摘要(百万人民币) | 2024 | 2025 | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | -- ...

瑞幸咖啡 2025Q4 业绩点评 | [姓名table_Authors] | 电话 | 邮箱 | 登记编号 | [Table_Invest] 评级： | 增持 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 刘越男(分析师) | 021-38677706 | liuyuenan@gtht.com | S0880516030003 | | | | 宋小寒(分析师) | 010-83939087 | songxiaohan@gtht.com | S0880524080011 | [当前价格 Table_CurPrice] (美元)： | 38.26 | 本报告导读： 公司聚焦增长、持续关注份额，利润率短期波动，不改长期价值。 投资要点： 股票研究 /[Table_Date] 2026.03.01 Q4 同店环比降速，持续推进规模增长 瑞幸咖啡(LKNCY.OO) 风险提示：开店不及预期，同店下滑明显，消费需求疲软。 | 财务摘要(百万人民币) | 2024 | 2025 | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | -- ...

中国青年报客户端讯（丽水学院 包敏婕 中青报·中青网记者 卞心怡）苕水一侧，安吉浒溪流水潺潺，经 系统性生态治理后，水质常年稳定在Ⅱ类及以上，是连接城乡土壤的动脉，"安且吉兮，水亲如浒"的幸 福河湖图景正徐徐展开。依托这条"蝶变"新生的母亲河，沿岸悄然生长出多家由返乡青年、外来创业者 所打造的特色咖啡店。咖啡业态，皆以浒溪流域的生态为底色，将水清岸绿的自然风光转化为经营优 势，不断探索出一条"生态环境促进个体创业、绿水青山孕育金山银山"的道路。 旁的香樟林里，一家树冠咖啡店的观景台被绿意环抱。顾客在这可手捧咖啡，俯瞰浒溪的生态廊道。浙 江海洋大学 杨俊杰/摄 在"TREE TREE COFFEE"咖啡店外的香樟树林里挂着这样一句话，能让游客融入自然，感受山野谧 境。浙江海洋大学 杨俊杰/摄 "TREE TREE COFFEE" 咖啡店外被鲜花与藤蔓装点，这里是游客们的热门打卡处。浙江海洋大学 杨俊杰/摄 TREE COFFEE"咖啡店装扮一新，红灯高挂，"马年大吉"粘贴门前。浙江海洋大学 杨俊杰/摄 "TREE 位于浒溪 一条百米 悬崖瀑布飞流直下，如今变为"塔里 TALI"咖啡店的天然背景。浙江海洋大学 杨 ...

Core Insights - The article highlights the significant impact of the high tariff policy implemented by the Trump administration on coffee imports from Brazil to the United States, resulting in Germany becoming the largest importer of Brazilian coffee in 2025 [1] Group 1: Import Statistics - In 2025, Germany imported 5.4 million bags of coffee from Brazil, accounting for 13.5% of Brazil's total coffee exports [1] - The United States imported 5.3 million bags, marking a 33% decrease from the previous year, thus falling to the second-largest importer of Brazilian coffee [1] Group 2: Tariff Impact - The decline in U.S. coffee imports from Brazil is attributed to the high tariffs imposed by the Trump administration, which led to a 55% year-on-year reduction in Brazilian coffee exports to the U.S. during the tariff period from August to November 2025 [1] - The tariffs were initially justified by Trump due to perceived political persecution of former Brazilian President Bolsonaro [1] - In November 2025, the Trump administration largely lifted these tariffs in response to rising food prices in the U.S. [1] Group 3: Market Overview - Brazil exports coffee to over 120 countries and regions, holding more than 30% of the global coffee market [1] - Other significant markets for Brazilian coffee include Italy, Japan, and Belgium, in addition to Germany and the United States [1]

Core Viewpoint - The recent adjustments to tariffs by President Trump are unlikely to lead to immediate reductions in coffee prices for American consumers, as the primary driver of price increases has been supply shortages rather than tariff policies [1][8]. Group 1: Tariff Adjustments and Their Impact - Trump's administration imposed broad import tariffs on several countries, including Brazil, a major coffee producer, which has led to increased prices for raw coffee beans [1][2]. - The cancellation of tariffs on over 200 food items, including coffee, was a response to voter dissatisfaction with rising food prices, particularly in states where Democrats won recent elections [2][8]. - The additional 40% tariffs on non-native foods from Brazil were excluded, as Brazil supplies about one-third of the coffee beans imported by the U.S. [2][8]. Group 2: Coffee Price Dynamics - The cost of raw coffee beans accounts for at least 40% of the production cost of roasted coffee, and prices have surged due to supply shortages caused by adverse weather over the past three seasons [3][9]. - Experts predict that coffee bean production will exceed demand in the 2025/26 and 2026/27 seasons, which, combined with the tariff cancellations, could lead to a decrease in raw bean prices that may eventually reach consumers [3][9]. - The transmission of raw bean price changes to consumer prices typically takes at least nine months due to roasting cycles and pricing negotiations [1][3][9]. Group 3: Current Price Trends - As of November, the retail price of coffee in the U.S. has increased by 18.8% over the past year, with minimal influence from tariff policies [5][11]. - During the period when Trump's tariffs were most effective (August to November), raw bean prices rose nearly 35%, but this increase has not yet been reflected in retail prices [5][12]. - The price of raw beans has only decreased by 6% since the tariff adjustments, indicating that prices tend to rise quickly but fall slowly [5][12]. Group 4: Market Reactions - The recent tariff adjustments have temporarily slowed the rate of coffee price increases, with some companies announcing they will not raise prices further to cover tariff costs [6][13]. - Despite the tariff cancellations, industry leaders indicate that this alone is insufficient to lower market prices significantly, as high raw bean prices persist [6][13][14]. - Consumers may not fully recognize the ongoing high prices of raw beans, focusing instead on tariff-related issues [14].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the cultural significance and unique brewing methods of Turkish coffee and Yunnan's "fire coffee," showcasing how both reflect the local lifestyle and traditions [2][3]. Group 1: Turkish Coffee - The "Mandabatmaz" coffee shop in Istanbul has been operating for nearly 60 years, maintaining traditional brewing methods using a copper pot and low heat [2]. - Turkish coffee was recognized as an Intangible Cultural Heritage by UNESCO in 2013, emphasizing its historical importance [2]. - The shop owner, Can Ozman, emphasizes that Turkish coffee should be enjoyed unfiltered to appreciate its full flavor [2]. Group 2: Yunnan's "Fire Coffee" - Li Jinhe, known as "Coffee Uncle," has been running a roadside coffee shop in Yunnan for 14 years, utilizing a unique brewing method that involves a spray gun and siphon [3]. - The roadside coffee shop has gained popularity, especially during peak hours on weekends, attracting many tourists who appreciate the local coffee experience [3]. - Li Jinhe expresses a commitment to promoting the high-quality small-grain coffee from Baoshan, reflecting a deep connection to his roots in the Gaoligong Mountains [3].

Group 1 - The event "Coffee Masterclass: How to Run a Successful Coffee Shop" was held in Nanming District, focusing on empowering over ten entrepreneurs with experience, policies, and resources to overcome growth challenges in the coffee industry [1][4] - The coffee shop owner, Cao Zihan, shared insights on business models, customer maintenance, and cost control, emphasizing the importance of understanding the industry from the ground up for new entrepreneurs [3][4] - The "Enterprise Home" platform was highlighted as a bridge between government and businesses, offering a comprehensive service matrix that includes talent, finance, and policy support, significantly reducing the startup process for coffee shops [4][8] Group 2 - The event fostered a strong entrepreneurial atmosphere, with participants expressing confidence in starting businesses in Nanming due to the support from experienced mentors and government policies [6][8] - The Nanming District Government aims to enhance the "Enterprise Home" service brand and optimize the business environment, providing ongoing support for the coffee industry [8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Buy" for the company [6][9]. Core Insights - The company is focusing on growth and market share, steadily expanding its store count to lay a solid foundation for long-term development [2][9]. - The company reported a significant increase in revenue and gross merchandise volume (GMV) for Q3 2025, with revenue reaching 15.3 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 50.2% [9]. - The company is experiencing short-term pressure on profit margins due to a significant increase in delivery costs, which has impacted operating profit margins [9]. Financial Summary - Total revenue projections for the company are as follows: - 2023: 24,903 million RMB - 2024: 34,475 million RMB (growth of 38.44%) - 2025E: 50,340 million RMB (growth of 46.02%) - 2026E: 59,811 million RMB (growth of 18.82%) - 2027E: 66,341 million RMB (growth of 10.92%) [4] - Net profit projections are as follows: - 2023: 2,848 million RMB - 2024: 2,932 million RMB (growth of 2.94%) - 2025E: 3,853 million RMB (growth of 31.44%) - 2026E: 4,713 million RMB (growth of 22.30%) - 2027E: 5,320 million RMB (growth of 12.90%) [4] - The company’s operating profit margin (OPM) for Q3 2025 was reported at 17.5%, a decrease of 6.0 percentage points year-on-year [9]. Store Expansion and Sales Performance - As of Q3 2025, the company operates 29,214 stores, an increase of 36.88% year-on-year, with a net addition of 3,008 stores in Q3 [9]. - Same-store sales for self-operated stores increased by 14.4% in Q3 2025, driven by a surge in demand from delivery services [9]. Cost Structure and Profitability - The company is facing challenges with rising delivery costs, which have negatively impacted profit margins. The delivery cost ratio increased to 18.90%, a year-on-year increase of 9.79% [9]. - The company plans to optimize its cost structure through refined operations and digital capabilities to maintain healthy profit margins despite rising costs [9].

Core Insights - The article highlights the emergence of "Konggu Wujie," a coffee shop in Guiyang High-tech Zone, as a new cultural and commercial space that integrates coffee with reading and business activities [1][3][4] - The founders, with extensive backgrounds in the coffee and new media industries, emphasize the unique potential of Guiyang's coffee market, supported by government initiatives [3][4][6] - A recent government policy aims to establish Guiyang as a nationally influential coffee consumption destination by 2027, which is expected to accelerate the growth of the local coffee industry [6] Company Overview - "Konggu Wujie" was founded by Chen Chun and Guo Jianwei, who bring over 20 years of coffee industry experience and expertise in new media, respectively [3] - The coffee shop aims to create a "third space" that transcends traditional commercial boundaries, offering a platform for various cultural and business interactions [3][4] Industry Context - Guiyang High-tech Zone is identified as a vibrant economic area with a high demand for quality leisure spaces, making it an ideal location for coffee shops [4] - The local government's recent policy to promote the coffee industry has been positively received, indicating a strategic move to harness the growth potential of the coffee sector [6] - The coffee culture in Guiyang is expected to flourish, contributing to the city's tourism and cultural identity by 2027 [6]

Core Points - The 2025 Guangdong Province Barista Skills Competition and the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Youth Barista Skills Innovation and Entrepreneurship Exchange Event will be held from November 28 to 30 in Jiangmen [1] - The event is co-hosted by the Guangdong Provincial Human Resources and Social Security Department and the Jiangmen Municipal Government, featuring 23 teams and 67 participants from Guangdong, Hong Kong, and Macao [1] - The competition aims to promote the development of skilled barista talent and the high-quality growth of the coffee industry, fostering an atmosphere that values and respects skills [1] Event Details - The theme of the competition is "Gathering Coffee in the Overseas Chinese Capital, Skills for a Better Guangdong" [1] - The competition includes two main modules: "Coffee Latte Art" and "Coffee Cup Tasting," assessing participants' professional skills and overall qualities [1] - Winners of the finals will receive vocational skill level certificates as Barista Technicians (Level 2) or Senior Workers (Level 3) according to national standards [1]