数据公布后，黄金短线拉升7美元后回落，美指一度跌破99关口。 根据薪资处理公司ADP周三发布的报告，美国私营部门的就业增长在5月份放缓至近乎停滞，创下两年多来的最低水平，劳动力市场出现疲软迹象。 这份被誉为"小非农"的数据显示，美国5月仅新增3.7万个就业岗位，低于4月份向下修正后的6万个，也远低于市场预测的11万个，为2023年3月以来最小增 幅。 关于工资，Richardson表示，留任员工的年薪增长率为4.5%，跳槽员工的年薪增长率为7%，两者与4月份相比变化不大，但仍处于"强劲"水平。 在"小非农"数据公布之后，美国总统特朗普迅速发帖开喷鲍威尔，其写道："ADP就业报告出来了，'太迟先生'美联储主席鲍威尔现在必须降息。他令人无 语！！欧洲已经降息了九次！" 这份报告发布于备受关注的非农就业数据的前两天，后者预计将显示新增12.5万个就业岗位，失业率稳定在4.2%。 尽管这两份报告经常存在差异，有时甚至差距很大，但ADP的统计数据在当前市场对更广泛经济状况提出疑问之际，提供了美国就业状况的另一个快照。 ADP首席经济学家Nela Richardson表示："在今年开局强劲之后，招聘势头正在减弱。" 商品 ...

具体来说，5月产业指数中的活动／销售指标上升0.9点至-18.3点；用工指标上升6.2点至-9.6点；新增订 单指标上升0点至-10.3点；投入品数量指标上升8.6点至-2.7点；投入品价格指标上升8.1点至47.6点；销 售价格指标上升0.4点至-5.9点，平均薪资指标下降0.6点至38.8点。报告特别指出，客户决策延迟、利率 水平和全球不稳定性导致大型项目延迟，从而导致销售转化率偏低。 分行业来看，澳大利亚工业集团发布的制造业表现指数（PMI）在5月下降0.3点至-23.5点；建筑业表现 指数（PCI）上升1点至-6.4点；商业服务业表现指数上升7.2点至-4.3点，为2024年4月以后的最高水平。 报告称，澳制造业萎缩是受到全球和澳当地不确定性的影响，重大项目被推迟，市场犹豫加剧。尤其是 下游的机械设备制造行业，由于供应链中断、不确定性、资本投资减少以及进口成本增加而陷入低迷。 澳建筑业则在面对项目减少、行业竞争加剧的问题，建筑企业纷纷加大折扣力度以保持竞争力，但积压 的建筑项目仍能持续推动该行业整体获得改善。澳商业服务业则因新订单增加，建筑材料需求强劲而受 益，但也在面对全球经济环境动荡、关税上调、利 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the resilience of the U.S. labor market despite aggressive interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve post-pandemic, characterized by a steepening of the Phillips and Beveridge curves [1][2][4][5]. - The U.S. labor market has shown robust growth with unemployment rates remaining historically low, even as the Federal Reserve raised interest rates from 0-0.25% to 5.25%-5.5% over a span of 11 hikes [3][4]. - The average monthly non-farm employment from March 2022 to March 2025 is 230,400, significantly higher than the pre-pandemic average of 178,000 [3]. Group 2 - The Phillips curve has become more vertical, indicating that despite a drop in inflation from 7.0% to 2.1%, the unemployment rate only increased from 3.6% to 4.1%, demonstrating the labor market's resilience [4]. - The Beveridge curve has steepened, showing that even with a decrease in job vacancy rates from 7.4% to 4.4%, the unemployment rate only rose slightly, further indicating labor market strength [5]. - The labor market is characterized by a significant "demand exceeding supply" situation, with a labor shortage exacerbated by slow recovery in labor supply post-pandemic [6]. Group 3 - Strong public and private investments, driven by the Biden administration's "Invest in America" agenda, have significantly boosted labor demand, with total spending around $1.2 trillion since late 2021 [7]. - Private sector investments have exceeded $1 trillion, particularly in manufacturing and non-residential construction, contributing to job growth despite high interest rates [7][8]. - The accumulation of "excess savings" and rising asset prices have supported consumer spending, which in turn has driven labor demand, creating a positive feedback loop in the economy [12][13]. Group 4 - The influx of low-cost immigrant labor has made the labor market both "scarce and relatively cheap," which has stimulated demand and mitigated the impact of high interest rates on business costs [14][15]. - The labor market's dynamics can explain the verticalization of the Phillips curve and the steepening of the Beveridge curve, as high demand persists even with rising interest rates [16]. - The neutral interest rate has risen post-pandemic, leading to an underestimation of the restrictive nature of the Federal Reserve's policy rates, which has contributed to the labor market's resilience [17][18]. Group 5 - In the short term, the labor market is expected to remain stable, with a gradual decrease in hiring rates but low levels of layoffs, indicating a balanced supply-demand situation [20][21]. - In the medium to long term, uncertainties stemming from potential policy changes under the Trump administration could impact the labor market, particularly regarding tariffs and federal spending cuts [22].